UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape

Cody picks Royval as a plus money underdog, citing his infinite cardio, pressure, and volume. He believes Royval's improved striking and grappling will allow him to outwork Kape over five rounds, especially in deeper waters. He notes Kape's power but thinks Royval's chin can hold up and that Royval will win a close decision by outlanding him in significant strikes.

Connor picks Kape but is hesitant, acknowledging that Kape has the potential to be elite but lacks a consistent process. He believes that if Kape comes out aggressive and forces exchanges, his speed, power, and accuracy should allow him to counter Royval's volume. Connor also notes that Royval's style is 'nonsense' and that Kape is an apex athlete who can hurt anyone. However, he admits that Kape's tendency to be inactive and not engage could be a problem, and that Royval's durability makes a finish unlikely.

Lucrative James picks Manel Kape confidently, arguing that Brandon Royval's aggressive, pressure-heavy style plays into Kape's hands. He notes Kape's superior boxing, timing, and power, and believes Kape will hurt Royval multiple times, though a knockout is uncertain given Royval's durability. He projects Kape as a -250 favorite.

Paul agrees with Cody, also taking Royval at plus 250. He highlights the Felipe dos Santos fight as evidence that Kape can be pushed in a striking battle, and doubts Kape can maintain high volume for 25 minutes. He sees Royval's durability and output as key factors.

Zane picks Royval because he believes Royval's high-volume, pressure-heavy style is more conducive to winning at high levels of MMA. He notes that Royval is big for the division, throws a ton, and is a dynamic grappler who will attack submissions. Zane also points out that Kape has a history of being inactive and not imposing his will, as seen in the Mochaev fight, and that Royval's style will force Kape to fight, which plays into Royval's hands. He also mentions that the small cage will help Royval.

Cody picks Vallejos, citing Giga's age, injuries, and lack of interest. He notes Vallejos's youth, durability, and pressure style, and expects him to outwork Giga by mixing in takedowns and volume. He predicts a decision win for Vallejos.

Connor also picks Chikadze, agreeing with Zane that Vallejos will struggle with Chikadze's range. He notes that Vallejos has never faced a fighter who knows how to fight long, and that Chikadze can deny him the pocket. Connor expects Vallejos to have a rough start and possibly get finished by kicks. He also mentions that Chikadze's losses were hard-fought and he is not shot.

Lucrative James is a fan of Kevin Vallejos and picks him to win, possibly by knockout. He highlights Vallejos' youth, athleticism, power, and multiple paths to victory, including grappling and boxing. He notes Giga Chikadze's cardio issues and susceptibility to grappling, and believes Vallejos can finish him. He projects Vallejos as a -250 favorite.

Paul also picks Vallejos, emphasizing that the key to beating Giga is constant pressure, which Vallejos excels at. He mentions Vallejos's takedown threat and body work, and suggests a Vallejos by decision prop at plus 150.

Zane picks Chikadze because he believes Vallejos is a pocket combination puncher who will struggle against Chikadze's length and range. He notes that Chikadze is huge for the division and knows how to fight long, which will deny Vallejos his preferred range. Zane expects Vallejos to be frustrated for the first two rounds, possibly coming on late but not enough to win. He also mentions that Chikadze's kicks are dangerous and could lead to a finish.

Cody picks Oleksiejczuk, citing his youth, experience, and training at Fighting Nerds. He believes Oleksiejczuk's wrestling and power will be too much for Almeida, who is older and has poor takedown defense. He expects a finish, possibly by submission.

Connor also picks Oleksiejczuk, citing his youth, aggression, and more well-rounded game. He notes that Almeida's wrestling is bad and that Oleksiejczuk can take advantage of that. Connor also mentions that Almeida is durable but slow, and that Oleksiejczuk's ability to initiate exchanges will be key. He sees it as a coin flip but leans to Oleksiejczuk.

Lucrative James picks Cesari Oleksiejczuk (Michał's brother) but acknowledges it's a close fight. He notes Oleksiejczuk's youth, power, and improved grappling at Fighting Nerds, but warns about his takedown defense issues. He believes Oleksiejczuk needs to mix in takedowns to avoid Almeida's knockout power. He projects Oleksiejczuk as a -150 favorite.

Paul also picks Oleksiejczuk, noting his amateur grappling background and the improvements at Fighting Nerds. He thinks Oleksiejczuk can mix in wrestling to avoid Almeida's kickboxing and get a submission, liking the sub prop at plus 750.

Zane picks Oleksiejczuk because he is a young, aggressive prospect with a more well-rounded game than Almeida. He notes that Almeida's wrestling is a huge weakness, and Oleksiejczuk can exploit that by initiating exchanges and mixing in takedowns. Zane also mentions that Almeida is durable but slow-paced, and Oleksiejczuk's front-foot pressure should allow him to dictate the fight. He acknowledges that Almeida is hard to hurt but believes Oleksiejczuk's aggression will be enough.

Cody picks Costa, citing his well-rounded game, durability, and ability to mix striking with takedowns. He notes Charrière's low volume and tendency to wait, while Costa is more active and willing to push the pace. He expects Costa to win a decision.

Connor also picks Charrière, agreeing that he has all the advantages over Costa. He notes that Charrière is a better athlete and has a more structured game, while Costa is complacent and lets opponents dictate. Connor expects Charrière to take over whenever he puts his foot on the gas, but acknowledges that the fight will be infuriating because both fighters have ADHD-like tendencies. He still sees Charrière as the clear pick.

Lucrative James leans toward Morgan Charrière, citing his ability to dictate where the fight takes place and his power advantage. However, he admits it's a 50/50 fight and not confident, noting Charrière's inconsistent fight IQ and Costa's kicking and grappling skills. He projects even odds at -110 each.

Paul also picks Costa, emphasizing his blend of skills and recent submission streak. He thinks Charrière is skilled but often does not do enough, while Costa's forward pressure and grappling will secure the win. He suggests Costa by decision.

Zane picks Charrière because he is a bigger, better athlete than Costa and has a well-rounded game. He notes that Costa is prone to letting opponents dictate and will give up initiative, which Charrière can exploit. Zane also mentions that Charrière is incredibly hard to hurt and can finish at any time, while Costa often gets finished when he loses. He expects Charrière to use his wrestling and physicality to take over.

Cody picks Buchecha, believing his BJJ will be decisive. He notes Nzechukwu's poor grappling and Buchecha's improved conditioning. He expects Buchecha to get a takedown and submit Nzechukwu, liking the submission prop.

Connor also picks Nzechukwu, agreeing that Buchecha's jiu-jitsu doesn't translate to MMA. He notes that Buchecha had to flop guard against Martin Buday and lost, showing he can't impose his game. Connor also mentions that Nzechukwu has size and reach advantages, and that Buchecha has no confidence in his striking. He sees this as a clear win for Nzechukwu.

Lucrative James picks Marcus Buchecha, citing his elite grappling and the fact that Kennedy Nzechukwu has been submitted multiple times. He acknowledges Nzechukwu's striking advantage but believes Buchecha's takedown ability and submission threat are too strong to ignore. He projects Buchecha as a +120 underdog.

Paul also picks Buchecha, citing his world-class jiu-jitsu and the favorable matchup against a tall, lanky opponent. He thinks Buchecha's takedown ability and top control will be too much for Nzechukwu, and likes the submission prop.

Zane picks Nzechukwu because he has more confidence in his game than Buchecha, who lacks confidence in his striking and has no ability to get to his A-game. He notes that Nzechukwu is huge, has a reach advantage, and has been building confidence by fighting low-confidence heavyweights. Zane also points out that Buchecha's jiu-jitsu is not enough to overcome his poor wrestling and striking, and that he has 'big competitive jiu-jitsu energy' that doesn't translate to fighting.

Cody picks Green, citing his experience and superior striking. He notes Gibson's lack of activity and short notice, and expects Green to keep the fight standing and outwork Gibson as he fades in later rounds. He sees a live betting opportunity.

Connor also picks Green, agreeing that Gibson is not a UFC-level fighter. He notes that Green, despite looking old and slow, can still beat opponents who don't pose a real threat. Connor mentions that Gibson's only path to victory is wrestling, but that has never been the answer to Green unless you're Islam Makhachev. He also criticizes the fight as not competitive.

Paul also picks Green, emphasizing the step down in competition for Green. He thinks Gibson's grappling threat is neutralized by Green's takedown defense and that Green's striking will be too much. He recommends waiting for a better price.

Zane picks Green because Gibson is a low-level opponent who has feasted on gimmes and doesn't look like a real fighter. He notes that Green, despite looking shot, can still be effective against non-dangerous opponents, as seen in the Jim Miller fight. Zane also points out that Gibson's wrestling game is not enough to trouble Green, and that Green's experience and boxing should carry him. However, he criticizes the fight as not belonging in the UFC.

Cody picks Amosov, citing his elite takedown defense and striking. He acknowledges Magny's experience and cardio but thinks Amosov's skills will prevail. He expects Amosov to win the first two rounds and possibly finish.

Connor also picks Amosov, but notes that Amosov has cut back on his striking and become more grappling-focused, which could be a problem against certain opponents. However, he believes Magny is a good matchup for Amosov's style. He foresees a dominant win but warns that Amosov may struggle against fighters like Ian Garry who can stuff takedowns.

Lucrative James picks Yaroslav Amosov confidently, highlighting his elite wrestling and submission skills. He notes Neil Magny's history of being submitted and outgrappled, and believes Amosov will pass the 'Neil Magny test' with a submission. He projects Amosov as a -300 favorite.

Paul leans toward Magny as a live dog, citing too many question marks with Amosov's activity and motivation. He thinks Magny's experience and cardio could pay off if Amosov fades, but is not confident enough to lay the price. He suggests live betting Magny.

Zane picks Amosov confidently, predicting a dominant grappling performance. He notes that Magny is bad off his back and that Amosov's wrestling and top pressure will be too much. He compares it to Magny's losses against strong wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and RDA. He expects Amosov to get a takedown early and transition to a submission.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Brito. He emphasizes that Brito is impossibly durable, never submitted, and fights like a 'honey badger.' He notes that Thompson would need a perfect performance to win, and that Brito's chaotic style makes him difficult to beat without a lockdown game plan.

Lucrative James picks Joanderson Brito confidently, citing his elite durability and relentless grappling. He notes that Melik Baghdasaryan (the opponent) is a kickboxer with poor takedown defense and cardio issues, and believes Brito will dominate on the mat. He projects Brito as a -250 favorite.

Zane picks Brito confidently, noting that Thompson is a young, reckless fighter who lacks control and leaves himself in awkward positions. He believes Brito's durability and relentless pressure will be too much for Thompson, who has not shown he can handle this level of athlete. He also notes that Brito is not the kind of fighter who benefits from a short-notice opponent change.

Cody picks Asplund, citing his mobility, reach, and cardio. He expects Sharaf to fade after the first round, allowing Asplund to take over and get a TKO. He suggests a round two prop.

Connor agrees with Asplund, but is equally hesitant. He describes Asplund as a fighter who fights like he's on fire for two minutes then gasses, but keeps trying. Sharaf, on the other hand, quits when hit clean. He calls it a crime against humanity and says neither fighter should engender confidence.

Lucrative James picks Steven Asplund confidently, citing his size advantage as a true heavyweight. He believes Sean Sharaf is a light heavyweight who will struggle with Asplund's size and power, and predicts Asplund will win via TKO from top position. He projects Asplund as a -250 favorite.

Paul is hesitant but leans Asplund, noting his mobility and youth. He worries about Asplund's takedown defense but thinks he can survive early and take over later. He prefers live betting or a round two prop.

Zane picks Asplund hesitantly, noting that Asplund gets tired quickly but keeps fighting aggressively, while Sharaf quits when not winning. He points out that Asplund has wins outside the first round, whereas Sharaf has only one fight outside the first round and lost it. He calls it a terrible fight that could go either way.

Cody leans Santos, citing her youth and improvements. He thinks her takedown defense and striking are better, but acknowledges Croden's strength. He is not confident and calls it a pass, but picks Santos for the show.

Connor agrees with Santos, citing her youth (25) and potential. He notes that Croden looked robotic but dedicated in her last win, but Santos has more dynamic entries and takedowns. He believes Santos can surprise Croden early.

Paul confidently picks Santos, citing the Brazilian vs Canadian narrative and Santos's superior grappling. He notes Croden's takedown defense issues and thinks Santos will control the fight.

Zane picks Santos, noting her dynamic entries and takedowns. He contrasts her quick start against Lisboa with Croden's slow start in the same matchup. He believes Santos can take over early before Croden warms up. He also notes that Croden is 34 and unlikely to improve significantly.

Cody leans Pat, citing his experience and durability. He thinks Frye's level of competition is too low and that Pat's reach and ground game will be enough. He is not confident but picks Pat.

Connor also picks Pat, but is hesitant. He notes that Pat has a higher ceiling and looks like a natural athlete, but Fry has a more credible win over Justin Frazier. He points out that Pat's takedown defense was exposed but he scrambles well. He calls it a fight that should be happening but isn't necessary to see.

Lucrative James picks Guilherme Pat, citing his superior athleticism, footwork, and striking. However, he notes Pat's lack of killer instinct and questions his mental toughness. He acknowledges the fight is hard to call due to low-level competition and limited tape. He projects Pat as a -170 favorite.

Paul also leans Pat, citing the Brazilian vs can crusher narrative. He thinks Pat's experience in longer fights gives him an edge if it goes past the first round. He is not confident but picks Pat.

Zane picks Pat hesitantly, citing his superior athleticism and scrambling ability. He notes that Pat has a natural athlete's posture and can scramble like a welterweight, while Fry looks like a brawler with limited athletic background. However, he acknowledges that Pat's chin is untested and he leaves himself open defensively.

Cody picks Bledá, citing her youth and physical strength. He thinks her clinch work and volume will outwork Horth, who struggles against strong grapplers. He expects a decision win.

Connor agrees with Horth, noting that Bledá is only 24 and has potential but is at the wrong weight class. He points out that Horth is a mean clinch fighter with a strong top game, while Bledá has no striking or wrestling. He believes Horth's skills will outweigh Bledá's physicality.

Lucrative James picks Tereza Bledá confidently, citing her superior strength, athleticism, and relentless grappling. He notes Jamey-Lyn Horth's takedown defense issues and believes Bledá will dominate on the ground. He acknowledges Bledá's long layoff but expects improvements. He projects Bledá as a -200 favorite.

Paul also picks Bledá, citing her youth and potential. He thinks Horth's muscular style is not enough against a strong grappler like Bledá, and expects Bledá to control the clinch and win a decision.

Zane picks Horth confidently, noting that Bledá is huge for flyweight but relies only on strength and physicality with no real technique. Horth is also big and has actual skills like a mean clinch and strong top game. He believes Bledá's holding game won't work against Horth's size and aggression.