UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott

Angelo picks Mike Malott with extreme confidence, calling Gilbert Burns too old, slow, and not durable. He notes Gilbert is on a four-fight losing streak and has not submitted anyone recently. He recommends parlaying Malott heavily, saying the odds are too wide and should be much higher.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Mike Malott, despite calling him overrated. He criticizes Malott's takedown defense, questionable cardio, and low volume, but notes his power. Brady also doubts Gilbert Burns' durability and age (40). He predicts Malott wins by second-round knockout but says he will not bet on the fight.

Cody picks Gilbert Burns because he sees value in the plus money and questions Mike Malott's cardio in later rounds. He notes that Burns has fought top competition and that Malott has never been past three rounds. He also mentions that the line movement towards Burns supports his pick.

Daniel believes Mike Malott is catching Gilbert Burns at a great time, as Burns is nearly 40 and on a decline. He thinks Malott's explosiveness and freshness will be key, and that Burns will show signs of aging when hit. He predicts Malott will finish Burns.

Burns is a value underdog despite being older and on a losing streak. Malott fades in later rounds and has shown weakness on the ground. Burns has excellent grappling and cardio for five rounds. If Burns survives the early rounds, he can take over. The odds are too wide; this fight is closer to 50/50.

The host mentions the main event but does not make a pick for either fighter. He only notes that Gilbert Burns has been bet down from a massive underdog to a big underdog.

James believes the line is too wide and that Gilbert Burns has value as a plus 425 underdog. He thinks Burns can weather the early storm and take over in later rounds due to his experience and cardio. Despite picking Malott as the pure winner, he confidently sides with Burns for the moneyline.

The host believes Mike Malott will land a big shot and put Gilbert Burns away, but does not like the chalk on Malott. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as the best way to play the matchup, expecting pocket exchanges and a striking battle. He notes Burns' age and four-fight losing streak, and thinks Malott's power will be the difference.

Paul also picks Gilbert Burns, citing the same concerns about Malott's cardio and the value on Burns. He mentions he has a bet on Burns at plus 316 and likes late round props. He believes Burns can win if the fight goes into the later rounds.

Angelo leans Charles Jourdain but is hesitant, noting Kyler Phillips is not a bum and has faced tough competition. He worries about Kyler's inconsistent cardio and Charles's lack of meaningful wins. He thinks Charles's experience and toughness give him a slight edge, but advises staying away from betting.

Big Brady picks Charles Jourdain, citing Kyler Phillips' poor cardio. He notes Phillips wins the first round but fades dramatically, as seen in fights against Oliveira and Font. Brady expects Jourdain to lose round one then turn it up, finishing Phillips by third-round knockout.

Cody picks Charles Jourdain, expecting him to win by decision after losing the first round. He notes that Kyler Phillips is a strong first-round fighter but fades, and Jourdain's high pace and guillotine threat will be key. He suggests live betting Jourdain after the first round.

Daniel loves Jourdain's move to bantamweight, noting he looks incredible and has been finishing fights quickly. He believes Jourdain's pressure and durability will overcome Phillips' tendency to fade after the first round. He predicts Jourdain will win and become a top-10 contender.

Jourdain has a big advantage on the feet with high volume and power, and he is the aggressor. Phillips has poor cardio and is a point fighter. However, Jourdain's takedown defense is weak and he is easy to hold down. Phillips could grapple his way to a decision. Home advantage for Jourdain is a factor. Lean Jourdain but not confident enough to bet at these odds.

The host mentions the co-main event but does not make a pick. He only expresses excitement for the fight.

James picks Charles Jourdain to win via finish in round three. He notes that Kyler Phillips is dominant in round one but fades, while Jourdain is strong in round three and has finishing upside. He sees Jourdain's trajectory and self-belief as factors.

The host thinks Charles Jourdain is the side here, noting that Phillips has cardio issues and struggles under pressure. He expects Jourdain to apply pressure, work Phillips down, and find a finish in round two or three. He highlights Jourdain's dangerous guillotine and improved BJJ, and believes Phillips will either slow down or get caught in a submission if he grapples.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Charles Jourdain. He highlights that Phillips wins first rounds but fades, and Jourdain's work rate will take over. He also likes the split decision prop and suggests live betting.

Angelo picks Mandel Nallo, citing his diverse striking, kicks, and finishing ability. He criticizes Jai Herbert for hesitating and not throwing enough, noting his only notable moment was almost knocking out Ilia Topuria. He believes Mandel's counter-striking and grappling will secure the win.

Big Brady confidently picks Mandel Nallo, criticizing Jai Herbert's boring, point-fighting style and lack of chin. He notes Nallo has 14 wins, all under 1.5 rounds, and expects a first-round knockout. Brady expresses hope that Herbert gets cut after the fight.

Cody picks Mandel Nallo, citing his higher volume and better ground game compared to Jai Herbert's low output. He notes that Herbert tends to fade and that Nallo has been training with high-level fighters. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Daniel is impressed by Nallo's striking and believes Herbert's chin is questionable. He thinks Nallo's power will be too much for Herbert, despite Nallo's history of fading in longer fights. He predicts a devastating knockout win for Nallo.

Nallo is a complete unknown after three years away; his last fights were low-level. Herbert is more experienced but chinny. No strong opinion; if forced, lean Herbert due to value. Not betting this fight.

The host mentions Mandel Nallo getting a big stage but does not make a pick for the fight.

James picks Mandel Nallo to win via knockout in round one. He believes Nallo's funky striking and early power will be too much for Jai Herbert, who has chin issues. If the fight goes past round one, he leans Herbert, but he expects an early finish.

The host is surprised by the love on Nallo but thinks he has more paths to victory, including power striking and a BJJ black belt. He expects Nallo to land a big shot and put Herbert away, but thinks the fight will be closer than the odds indicate. He would stay off the fight unless Nallo's line drops to around -125.

Paul leans towards Mandel Nallo but prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop. He notes that Nallo is a finisher and that Herbert's fights often go to decision, but this matchup might end inside the distance.

Angelo confidently picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, using MMA math: Macy Barber took down Karine Silva three times, so Jasmine will do the same. He notes Karine struggles under pressure, while Jasmine never backs down. He dismisses Jasmine's recent loss to Manon Fiorot as a high-level opponent.

Big Brady confidently picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, highlighting her size, strength, and vicious ground and pound. He notes Karine Silva's poor takedown defense (20%) and tendency to slow down. Brady predicts Jasudavicius will take Silva down, beat her up with elbows, and eventually find a submission in the third round.

Cody picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, citing her superior wrestling and top control. He notes that Karine Silva struggles when taken down and that Jasudavicius has multiple paths to victory. He acknowledges the price is high but expects her to win.

Daniel views Jasudavicius as a top contender who has improved her striking and maintains a relentless pace. He thinks Silva is dangerous but will fade, and that Jasudavicius can avoid submissions and dominate. He picks Jasudavicius to get back in the win column.

Jasudavicius is a nightmare stylistic matchup for Silva. She is Canadian with home crowd, aggressive, well-rounded, and has a size advantage. Silva has poor takedown defense and gives up position on the ground. Jasudavicius can win standing or on the ground. Very high confidence she wins.

James predicts Jasmine Jasudavicius will win via round three finish. He expects Jasudavicius to survive early submission threats and use her pressure and cardio to gas out Silva, leading to a late TKO. He also suggests a 'round three or decision' prop.

The host believes Jasudavicius will be safe enough in the striking realm and that it's a matter of time before the fight hits the mat. He trusts her submission defense and thinks she will grind out Silva from top position, landing big damage. He predicts a decision win, as Silva has shown cardio issues and Jasudavicius can accrue control time and damage.

Paul also picks Jasudavicius but is not heavily invested due to the price. He thinks she wins by decision and notes the Canadian crowd support. He mentions that the line is accurate but sees no value at -300.

Angelo picks Gauge Young despite acknowledging Thiago Moises is good everywhere. He likes Gauge's aggression, scrambling, and forward pressure, believing he will do more and impress judges. He worries about Gauge cutting easily and bleeding, which could affect judging.

Big Brady picks Thiago Moises as an underdog, citing his elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Moises' inconsistency but believes he wins step-down fights. Brady points out Grant Dawson's vulnerability to takedowns and submissions, and predicts Moises will win by decision.

Cody picks Gauge Young, citing his youth, volume, and recent improvements. He notes that Thiago Moises is inconsistent and has taken a lot of damage. He also mentions that Moises' chin is a question mark after the Jared Gordon loss.

Daniel believes Moises is on a decline and has looked poor recently, while Young is improving and can push a pace that Moises struggles with. He thinks Young's hands and pressure will overwhelm Moises. He picks Young to get the biggest win of his career.

Young is a high-pressure striker with excellent cardio, while Moises has poor cardio and relies on grappling. Moises is passive on the feet and only shoots a few takedowns per fight. Young's takedown defense is good enough to scramble back up, and he will out-strike Moises significantly. This is a classic striker vs grappler where Young has a huge edge.

James picks Gauge Young to win, citing his durability, cardio, and pressure. He thinks Moises is on a downtrend and will struggle with Young's pace. Despite Moises being more skilled, James favors Young's will to win and stylistic advantages.

The host is hesitant but picks Moises by submission, thinking he will eventually find a position to put Young away. He notes that Moises is being overlooked due to his knockout loss to Jared Gordon, and that his BJJ and striking can be competitive. However, he needs a good number on the Moises submission prop to pull the trigger.

Paul also picks Gauge Young, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Young's volume and Moises' inconsistency. He mentions that Moises' durability is a concern and that Young is the fresher fighter.

Angelo picks Márcio Barbosa in his UFC debut, impressed by his power, pressure, and striking. He notes that Dennis Buzukja is a credentialed wrestler but doesn't wrestle enough, and if Barbosa has decent takedown defense, he should win. He thinks Barbosa could even find a finish.

Big Brady is confident in Márcio Barbosa, praising his power and finishing ability. He notes Barbosa has 16 first-round KOs and compares him to Lerone Murphy. He criticizes Dennis Buzukja's hittability and sub-50% striking defense, predicting a first-round knockout.

Cody picks Dennis Buzukja as a live betting underdog. He notes that Barbosa is a one-round fighter with cardio issues and that Buzukja has improved during his time off. He suggests betting Buzukja live if he survives the first round.

Daniel is high on Barbosa's knockout power and believes Buzukja is hittable and lacks top-15 potential. He thinks Barbosa will finish Buzukja early, likely in the first round. He predicts a first-round knockout and a performance bonus.

Buzukja is a value underdog due to his cardio, toughness, and ability to survive early rounds. Barbosa relies on first-round power against lower-level opponents and may fade. Buzukja has faced tougher UFC competition and shown he can go the distance. Even though Barbosa is more likely to win, Buzukja has at least a 35-40% chance, making the odds favorable.

James picks Barbosa to win via round one knockout. He notes Barbosa's aggressive style and power, and that if he doesn't finish early, he tends to gas out. He expects Barbosa to overwhelm Buzukja quickly.

The host expects Barbosa to win by knockout in the first round, sticking to his trend of finishing guys early. He recommends the under 1.5 rounds instead of the chalk on Barbosa, as it covers the possibility of Buzukja countering and putting Barbosa out. He notes that Buzukja is a Muay Thai specialist who won't be intimidated, but Barbosa's power should prevail.

Paul leans towards Barbosa but prefers the round 1 knockout prop. He acknowledges Barbosa's power but also his cardio issues. He suggests avoiding the moneyline and instead betting Barbosa by KO in round 1.

Angelo leans Robert Valentin based on toughness and the opinion of capper Bet Sam, who called Julien LeBlanc unathletic. He acknowledges both fighters are not good, but believes Robert's durability and chaotic style give him the edge. He plans to leave the fight alone betting-wise.

Cody picks Robert Valentin, citing his size advantage and better overall skills. He notes that Julien Leblanc is not UFC caliber and has weak wrestling. He also mentions that Valentin is fighting for his job and should be motivated.

Connor picks Valentin because despite his three-fight skid, he is at least a legitimate athlete who trains hard, whereas LeBlanc is not a pro athlete and looks out of shape. He notes that Valentin's losses came against decent athletes, but LeBlanc is the 'very picture of anybody ever' and lacks the physical tools to compete.

James picks Robert Valentin as an underdog, believing he has a submission threat and can finish early. He notes Valentin's 0-3 UFC record but thinks he is better than shown and can catch Leblanc on the ground.

The host thinks Valentin is a better version of LeBlanc with a better grappling game. He expects Valentin to find a submission and force LeBlanc to tap, looking dominant. He notes that Valentin is underrated and has improved since his earlier losses, and that LeBlanc's takedown defense is porous.

Paul also picks Robert Valentin, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Leblanc is not good and that Valentin has the strength advantage. He mentions that he got Valentin at minus 136 and would not play him at minus 200.

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Valentin is bigger and in shape while LeBlanc is not. He points out that Valentin's aggressive grappling style, though flawed, should work against a non-athlete like LeBlanc. He emphasizes that LeBlanc is not built to be a pro fighter.

Angelo confidently picks Gokhan Saricam, calling him an explosive wrestler who fights like a welterweight. He believes Tanner Boser is only on the card because he's Canadian and will lose. He placed a half-unit bet on Gokhan, surprised the odds are reasonable.

Big Brady leans toward Gokhan Saricam, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Tanner Boser's history of being taken down by fighters like Khalil Rountree and Latifi. Brady thinks Saricam will dictate the fight with wrestling and win a boring decision.

Cody picks Gokhan Saricam, citing his wrestling and size advantage. He notes that Boser has been inactive and struggled against wrestlers. He also mentions the narrative that Saricam's manager Ali Abdelaziz may have set up this fight.

Connor picks Boser because he knows how to fight and can out-hustle Saricam, who is not high-energy. He notes that Boser's only real ability is not getting tired at heavyweight, and that Saricam is a regional-level fighter who gets taken down easily. He acknowledges Boser is too small for heavyweight but believes Saricam is not capable enough to exploit that.

No strong lean either way. Both have poor takedown defense and ground game, so likely a stand-up fight. Boser is durable with good cardio, Saricam is a better boxer but making UFC debut. Too many unknowns for a pre-fight bet.

The host picks the over 2.5 rounds prop for this fight, not a fighter. He believes both fighters are durable and not finishers, leading to a late-rounds or decision outcome. He also leans Gokhan Saricam to win by decision for a ladder bet.

James picks Gokhan Saricam to win via decision, citing his better all-around game and wrestling. He notes Boser's experience but thinks Saricam's style matches up well. He is not highly confident due to Saricam's UFC debut.

The host believes Saricam is the cleaner striker and will land better volume, eventually getting a knockout victory. However, he has some pause due to Boser's pace and pressure. He expects Saricam to counter Boser's pressure with power and slicker striking, finding a big shot to put Boser away.

Paul also picks Saricam, citing his wrestling and Boser's inactivity. He notes that Boser has not fought in three years and that Saricam has better recent wins. He also likes Saricam's takedown props.

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Saricam is big enough to test guys but lacks high energy or activity. He points out that Saricam was held down by Oleg Popov and struggled with Daniel James, while Boser at least knows how to fight and can maintain pace. He sees Boser's cardio as the deciding factor.

Angelo picks Melissa Croden but is cautious, acknowledging Daria is better than given credit for. He notes Melissa is the more technical striker and physically stronger, with a grappling plan B. He warns that Daria has power and could cause problems if Melissa gets tagged.

Big Brady picks Melissa Croden, emphasizing her nasty top game and clinch work. He criticizes Daria Zhelezniakova's poor ground game and takedown defense, noting she was submitted by Eileen Perez and TKO'd by Mullins. Brady believes if Croden takes the fight to the ground, she will finish with ground and pound, predicting a second-round TKO.

Cody picks Melissa Croden, citing her ability to mix in takedowns and the Canadian crowd support. He notes that both fighters are similar but Croden may edge it with wrestling and home advantage. He expects a close decision.

Connor picks Croden because she is more composed and determined than Zhelezniakova, who is a steady pot-shotter without the footwork or wrestling defense to stop a determined opponent. He notes that Croden can walk into strikes but isn't deterred, and her physicality should overwhelm Zhelezniakova if she fights smart.

James picks Melissa Croden to win via round three TKO. He expects Croden to weather early storms and take over late with her pressure and wrestling. He notes Zhelezniakova's camp issues and poor ground game.

The host expects Croden to be competitive in the striking but thinks she will clinch up, take the fight to the ground, and look for a submission. He highlights Croden's physicality and BJJ brown belt, and believes Zhelezniakova struggles against heavy grapplers. He recommends a sprinkle on the submission prop at plus 625.

Paul also leans towards Croden, expecting a close decision. He notes that Daria tends to bleed and that Croden may benefit from the judges. He likes the split decision prop.

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Croden is like a less skilled version of Jasmine Jasudavicius but still knows how to implement her game. He points out that Zhelezniakova is a steady pot-shotter who lacks the tools to prevent a determined opponent from taking her out of her game, and Croden's physicality should be enough.

Angelo picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her power, range control, and higher fight IQ. He notes that JJ Aldrich is coming off a layoff and was never dangerous, and that Horth's takedown defense is a concern but JJ is not a strong wrestler. He expects Horth to win a shutout decision.

Big Brady picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her size, strength, and physicality. He believes Horth will win in the clinch and grind out a close split decision, despite Aldrich having better striking at distance. He expects an unexciting fight.

Cody picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her physical strength and ability to pressure. He notes that JJ Aldrich has mental toughness issues and tends to fade when pressured. He expects Horth to win by decision or late stoppage.

Connor picks Aldrich because she is a much better technician with faster hands and superior skills everywhere. He notes that Horth is not the kind of athlete that beats Aldrich, and Aldrich has beaten similar fighters like Jillian Robertson and Vanessa Demopoulos. However, he expresses concern that Aldrich's tendency to abandon what works could make the fight closer than it should be.

Aldrich is the better fighter everywhere: more technical boxing, southpaw stance, improved takedown defense, and better MMA grappling. Horth has home advantage but poor fight IQ and is an inexperienced striker. Aldrich's main issue is putting her stamp on rounds, but she should do enough to win a close decision. The odds are off; Aldrich should be at least 50%.

James picks JJ Aldrich as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He thinks Aldrich's boxing and takedown defense will keep the fight competitive, and that Horth's advantages are overstated. He predicts a decision win.

The host thinks Aldrich is the superior striker technically and has a strength of schedule advantage. He believes she will land more effective shots and withstand Horton's power. He notes that Horton throws with more power, which gives him pause, but sees value on Aldrich as a live underdog. He predicts Aldrich by decision.

Paul picks JJ Aldrich as a slight underdog, citing her experience and plus money. He notes that both fighters are similar but Aldrich has fought better competition. He expects a close decision and likes the value on Aldrich.

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Aldrich is a good technician and solid grappler who has beaten better fighters than Horth. He notes that Horth's best win is over Vanessa Demopoulos, while Aldrich has wins over better competition. He also points out that Horth is not a reckless fighter like Andrea Lee, so Aldrich may not get easy counters, but she should still win handily.

Angelo picks John Castañeda, citing his wrestling advantage and ability to close range against Mark Vologdin, who has short reach. He worries Castañeda may be past his prime but believes he is the better overall fighter. He expects Castañeda to use takedowns to secure a win.

Big Brady leans toward John Castañeda, noting he would have liked him better as an underdog. He criticizes Mark O. Madsen's striking defense (34%) and hittability, and praises Castañeda's experience and solid wins. Brady believes Castañeda can dictate where the fight takes place and get takedowns, predicting a decision win.

Cody picks John Castañeda, citing his experience and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Vologdin is one-dimensional and has poor striking defense. He expects Castañeda to win by decision or submission.

Connor picks Castañeda because he is a seasoned action fighter who can set a pace that Vologdin may not be ready for. He notes that Vologdin is a natural flyweight who is raw technically, often leaving his chin exposed when throwing combinations. Castañeda's experience and ability to push a brutal pace should overwhelm Vologdin, who is not yet comfortable as a high-output pressure fighter.

Daniel has never been high on Castañeda and thinks Vologdin can push a pace that Castañeda can't handle. He picks Vologdin as an underdog to win his UFC debut.

James picks John Castañeda as an underdog, citing his superior UFC experience and wins. He believes Castañeda's wrestling and left high kick will be key, and that Vologdin is too hittable and unproven. He predicts a decision win.

The host leans on Castañeda's strength of schedule, well-roundedness, and cardio edge. He thinks Castañeda's durability, movement, calf kicks, and wrestling will cause Vologdin issues as the fight goes into deeper water. He predicts a decision win, though acknowledges Vologdin could land a big shot early.

Paul also picks Castañeda, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Vologdin lost on the Contender Series and has poor wrestling defense. He expects Castañeda to use his wrestling and volume to win.

Zane leans toward Castañeda but acknowledges Vologdan could catch him and put him away. He notes that Vologdan is a natural flyweight who fights well in spots but not as a pace fighter, and Castañeda's experience in wars should give him the edge. However, he expresses concern about Castañeda's tendency to let opponents impose their game, as seen against Chris Gutierrez.

Angelo picks Jamie Siraj because he believes Jamie's wrestling, though not dominant, is sufficient to exploit John Yannis's poor takedown defense. He notes that Yannis was cut after a submission loss and re-signed, and that the fight was made to showcase the Canadian. He advises caution on betting if odds are too short.

Big Brady picks Jamie Siraj based on his grappling advantage. He notes Siraj is a BJJ black belt with good wrestling and cardio, and that half his wins come by submission. He highlights John Yannis' struggles with takedowns and back-taking, citing losses to Austin Bashi and Nick Aguirre. Brady predicts Siraj will get takedowns and submit Yannis in the second round.

Cody picks Jamie Siraj but is not confident due to his durability issues. He notes that Siraj has good grappling and cardio, but his chin is a concern. He suggests a small play or live betting.

Connor picks Siraj because he fights through ugly fights to find a way to win, whereas Yannis tries to be a low-output, crafty striker without the athleticism to carry it. He notes that Siraj is not bigger than Yannis, so crashing into the clinch won't put him at an athletic disadvantage like it does against better athletes. He sees Siraj's determination as the difference.

The host believes Siraj will find a submission spot and force Yannis to tap. He notes that Siraj has a solid wrestling game for a BJJ specialist and a great gas tank, and that Yannis has shown issues in the grappling game. He expects Siraj to chain takedown attempts and eventually find a submission.

Paul picks John Yannis as a dog, citing Siraj's durability issues. He notes that Yannis has power and that Siraj has been knocked down by lesser fighters. He expects Yannis to have a chance if he can land early.

Zane initially says he'll take Siraj too, but then jokingly switches to Yannis for a fake disagreement. However, his genuine pick appears to be Siraj, as he earlier agreed with Connor's reasoning. He notes that both fighters are bad, but Siraj at least tries to win ugly fights, while Yannis has a low-output style that doesn't work without elite athleticism.