Yan Xiaonan

Angelo picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her boxing and technical striking. He acknowledges Tabatha Ricci's pressure and cardio but believes Yan's skills and takedown defense will prevail. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds is a good bet.

Big Brady picks Tabatha Ricci with little confidence. He thinks the odds are off and that Yan Xiaonan's takedown defense is questionable, recalling the Carla Esparza loss where Yan was easily taken down. If Ricci can get takedowns, she can win minutes on top. Even on the feet, Ricci can push Yan against the cage and burn clock. Brady sees a path for Ricci to win by decision but is not confident.

Cody picks Ricci as a live underdog, arguing that Yan's takedown defense is suspect and Ricci's grappling is elite. He notes that Ricci has taken down multiple black belts and that Yan was exposed by Carla Esparza's wrestling. He believes Ricci can get takedowns, control top position, and grind out a decision or even a submission. He likes Ricci by decision at plus money.

Connor also picks Yan, emphasizing that Yan's boxing is far superior and that Ricci's grappling, while strong, may not be effective against a bigger, high-output striker. He notes that Ricci's top game is static and she struggles to finish, so Yan can survive takedowns and win on the feet. Connor agrees that the three-round format helps Ricci but still favors Yan.

Daniel Vreeland is a long-time Yan Xiaonan backer and continues the trend here. He sees a big size and striking advantage for Yan, noting Ricci's janky striking and poor top control. He references Ricci's inability to hold down Angela Hill and believes Yan's improved takedown defense and toughness will allow her to get back up. He expects Yan to light Ricci up on the feet and win decisively.

James leans towards Yan Xiaonan as the better striker, but is cautious due to Yan coming off a brutal loss and Ricci's improving grappling. He expects Yan to win a 29-28 decision on damage, but considers it a pass fight with no strong betting opinion.

Paul picks Yan Xiaonan but is hesitant, noting that Ricci has a path to victory via takedowns and control. He thinks Yan's striking power and ferocity will be the difference, but she must stay off her back and get up immediately if taken down. He expects a close fight that goes to decision and could see a split.

The MMA Guru picks Yan Xiaonan over Tabatha Ricci, citing Yan's better boxing, range control, and size advantage. He notes Yan has fought top competition, including a decision loss to Zhang Weili where she dropped Zhang, and wins over Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern. He believes Ricci's 'bunder' won't sway judges in China. He predicts a decision win for Yan.

Angelo is most confident in Zhang Weili, calling her better in every aspect of MMA. He notes her dominant performance against Amanda Lemos and believes she will easily defeat Yan Xiaonan. He recommends using her as a parlay anchor.

Cody sees a clear path for Zhang Weili via wrestling. He notes Yan Xiaonan has been taken down easily by Carla Esparza, Marina Rodriguez, and Mackenzie Dern, and has no get-up game. In contrast, Zhang Weili has excellent grappling, taking down Rose Namajunas five times and Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times. Cody believes Zhang can win on the feet too, but the path of least resistance is takedowns and ground control. He expects Zhang to grind Yan down and possibly secure a rear-naked choke or TKO.

Daniel Vreeland picks Zhang Weili, stating that Yan Xiaonan's path to victory is unclear. He notes that Weili is always balanced and in the right position, and that she can match volume. He also mentions that Weili beat Yan J at her own game, and that she has a huge grappling advantage if she chooses to use it.

Daniel Vreeland picks Yan Xiaonan as a massive underdog, citing his history of betting on her in every UFC fight and her value at plus odds. He acknowledges Zhang Weili's grappling advantage but believes Yan's improved takedown defense and striking can keep the fight standing, where she has the edge. He notes Yan's survival against McKenzie Dern as evidence of her improved ground game.

Jeff Fox picks Zhang Weili, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Weili is better everywhere in this fight, and that she will put on a one-sided beating. He also mentions that if she chose to grapple, she could finish the fight.

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He mentions it as the all-Chinese women's title fight but does not give a prediction. He only discusses it in the context of the card's strength.

Weili should put together a better body of work with a mixture of takedowns and striking damage to retain her title and win on the scorecards. However, -500 is not accurate as Yan Xiaonan is much livelier than the underdog price indicates and will provide resistance.

Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation, noting that women's strawweight fights are often close and go the distance. He acknowledges Zhang Weili should be the favorite but thinks the 4-to-1 price is too wide. Paul mentions Yan Xiaonan's path to victory is a first-round knockout, pointing out that Zhang has been knocked out before (by Rose Namajunas head kick) and that Yan just knocked out Jessica Andrade in the first round. He's tempted by the +385 underdog and the 30-to-1 round one prop.

Angelo picks Jéssica Andrade but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped multiple times. He thinks Andrade's raw power and bullying style can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she can pound away. However, he acknowledges Yan Xiaonan is the better striker with clean technique and composure. Angelo notes that if Andrade can't bully her way in, she'll be a step behind on the feet. He emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick.

Big Brady picks Andrade, citing her wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Yan Xiaonan was dominated by Carla Esparza, who has no finishing ability, so Andrade's takedowns and top control will be overwhelming. He believes Andrade is super strong for the division, has great cardio, and will take Yan down at will. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound.

Cody thinks Andrade should win on paper with her strength, power, and experience, but is concerned about her recent performance against Erin Blanchfield where she looked burnt out and quit. He notes she's been fighting for a decade and may be mentally done. He leans toward Andrade but says he doesn't trust her at -200 and might take Yan as an underdog if he needs one later.

Connor also picks Andrade, agreeing that Yan's volume won't be enough against Andrade's power and durability. He notes that Andrade is a rare power puncher in the division and that Yan's awkward kicks and jabs won't deter her. Connor mentions that Yan's best wins are against opponents who couldn't match her output, but Andrade is different.

The host picks Jéssica Andrade, believing her strength, top pressure, and ability to drag the fight to the ground will be decisive. He acknowledges Yan Xiaonan's striking and submission defense but thinks Andrade's power and grappling will overwhelm Yan. He expects Andrade to get a ground and pound finish.

Paul got burned betting on Andrade against Blanchfield and is wary of the -200 price. He notes that Andrade's takedowns could be effective, as MacKenzie Dern had success taking Yan down. He thinks Andrade gets back on track but the price is too high after her last performance, so he picks her but won't bet.

The Guru picks Andrade, believing she won't be outgrappled by Yan and that her pressure and body shots will be key. He notes Yan has been outgrappled before (by Carla Esparza) and that Andrade's size at strawweight is dangerous. He predicts a TKO in the second round via body shots and punches against the cage.

Cody also picks Dern by submission but expresses hesitations about her takedown accuracy (9%) and ability to get the fight to the ground consistently. He notes that Yan Xiaonan is tough and has good takedown defense, and that Dern's path to victory is entirely on the mat. He suggests live betting Yan if Dern fails to secure early takedowns, and mentions that Dern's submission win is the most logical outcome but not a lock.

Paul picks Mackenzie Dern by submission, noting her world-class jiu-jitsu and ability to get the fight to the ground via pulling guard or ugly clinch work. He acknowledges her one-dimensional striking and that Yan Xiaonan will likely win the standup, but believes Dern's durability and submission threat will prevail. He mentions the over/under on prize picks and the inside distance prop, but his official pick is Dern by submission.

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Marina is faster and more powerful, and that Yan has only executed a wrestle-heavy game plan once. He plans to place a plus 3.5 round bet on Yan, buying a round on the scorecard. He calls Yan 'stupid live' at the current odds.

Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez to win by decision. He believes Rodriguez will have a significant power advantage on the feet and that Yan Xiaonan is unlikely to attempt takedowns, which plays into Rodriguez's strengths. Brady notes that Rodriguez has improved her takedown defense and ground game, making it hard for Yan to take her down. He acknowledges the line is a bit steep at -250 but still favors Rodriguez to win.

Cody believes Rodriguez is the rightful favorite because she has never lost a striking battle and hits hard for the division. He notes her takedown defense is a concern but argues Yan's wrestling is not elite, based on tape of Yan's takedowns against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Cody thinks if Yan can't take her down, Rodriguez wins the striking exchanges with volume and power.

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan as a dog, citing the plus 250 odds. He believes this will be a close, competitive striking match and that Yan has the striking acumen to edge out a decision. He notes that Marina has only landed one takedown in her UFC career, so there is little takedown threat. He acknowledges Marina's improvements but thinks the odds are too wide and Yan has value.

The line is too wide; this is a 50/50 fight. Yan's power striking and training at Team Alpha Male should pose problems for Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a striker but hasn't faced someone with Yan's power. Yan's takedown defense is a concern, but Rodriguez rarely grapples. At plus money, Yan is the clear value pick. Yan can outstrike Rodriguez and win a decision.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodriguez's striking volume and power. He is skeptical of Yan's wrestling after watching the Kowalkiewicz fight, where Yan's takedowns were not from clean entries but rather Kowalkiewicz giving up position. Paul believes if Yan cannot take Rodriguez down, she will lose the striking battle. He calls it a women's MMA fight but is confident in Rodriguez.

Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.

Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.

Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.

Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.

Big Brady picks Yan, citing her volume striking and power, and Gadelha's decline in wrestling and cardio. He thinks Yan's takedown defense is good and she will win a decision, possibly live betting opportunity. He notes Gadelha has been dropped before.

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she is catching Cláudia Gadelha at the perfect time. He acknowledges Gadelha's grappling threat but thinks Yan can stuff takedowns and outwork her on the feet with volume and damage. Levi notes Yan's training at Alpha Male and with Sarah McMahon to improve wrestling, and he expects Yan to win a decision or possibly get a finish. He is concerned about submission but thinks Yan can avoid it.

The host likes Yan Xiaonan's pressure, power, and combinations to overwhelm Gadelha, who has cardio issues and declining takedown effectiveness. He notes Yan's training at Team Alpha Male and her ability to get back to her feet. He expects a decision or third-round TKO, and loves the -135 line.

Daniel Levi is very confident in Yan Xiaonan, calling it a mismatch on the feet. He highlights Yan's striking defense, speed, volume, and precision, and notes that Karolina leaves her chin exposed and has declined since her title fight. Levi expects Yan to dominate with clean shots, possibly getting a finish, but most likely a lopsided decision. He also mentions Yan's mean streak and predicts a sidekick knockout.