UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt

Big Brady picks Rob Font based on Font's higher output (5.21 significant strikes per minute vs 3.33), a six-inch reach advantage, and durability (never knocked out) compared to Cody Garbrandt's three knockout losses. He notes the smaller cage favors Font and that Garbrandt's low-volume style against Assuncao won't work here. He expects a knockout but acknowledges Garbrandt's power could end it.

Cody Saftic picks Rob Font, citing Font's durability, reach advantage (5-6 inches), and ability to mix in leg kicks. He believes Garbrandt's chin is compromised from hard training and past knockouts, and that Font will break him down over time, likely getting a knockout in the second or third round. Saftic notes that Garbrandt fades in later rounds and that Font's takedown defense and comfort on the ground will neutralize any wrestling threat.

Daniel Levi picks Cody Garbrandt, arguing that Garbrandt has more ways to win with his footwork, kicks, and D1 wrestling. He notes that Rob Font has been hurt in fights before (e.g., against Munoz and Assuncao) and that Garbrandt's last win got his confidence back. He believes Garbrandt can beat Font at his own game in boxing and that Font's recent wins over declining opponents don't prove he's ready for the top three.

Matt leans toward Rob Font, citing Font's more versatile eight-limb striking compared to Cody's boxing-heavy approach. He notes Font's six-inch reach advantage and his ability to attack with leg kicks to slow Cody down. However, he acknowledges Cody's speed, power, and crisp boxing, and admits low confidence due to the fight being a pick'em. He predicts Font may finish late, possibly in the third round, but is not confident enough to place a significant bet.

Paul Shaughnessy agrees with Saftic, picking Font. He emphasizes Garbrandt's low output (66 significant strikes in the Cruz fight, 19 against Assuncao) and Font's volume advantage. He notes that Font's reach and jab will cause problems, and that if the fight goes the distance, Font will land significantly more strikes. He also mentions the possibility of betting Font live if he survives the early rounds.

The MMA Guru predicts Rob Font will win by second-round TKO via uppercut. He expects Font to win the first round with his jab at range. In the second round, Garbrandt will become more aggressive and try to slip the jab, but Font will time an uppercut as Garbrandt dips down, putting him down for the finish.

Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.

Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.

Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.

Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.

The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.

Big Brady picks the underdog Vanderaa, reasoning that if Vanderaa can get takedowns, he has a huge advantage on the ground with submissions and ground-and-pound, while Tafa is lost on his back. He acknowledges Tafa's striking power could knock Vanderaa out early, but believes Vanderaa's path to victory via grappling is viable. He expects an early finish.

Cody Saftic picks Justin Tafa, citing Tafa's striking advantage and Vanderaa's hittability. He notes that Vanderaa is slow, flat-footed, and defensively unsound, and that Tafa has shown improvement in his last fight against Carlos Felipe. Saftic believes Tafa will get a knockout within the first round and a half, but acknowledges that if it goes longer, Vanderaa could capitalize with his ground-and-pound. He suggests live betting Vanderaa if Tafa fades.

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa, believing Tafa's striking power and improving takedown defense will be too much for Vanderaa. He notes that Vanderaa is a tough guy but a walking punching bag, and that Tafa's Samoan kickboxing style with sneaky uppercuts and leg kicks will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Vanderaa's alleged wrestling credentials.

Matt picks Justin Tafa by second-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes Tafa showed improved patience and leg kicks in his last fight against Carlos Felipe, which changed his perception of Tafa. However, he acknowledges Vanderaa could take a grapple-heavy approach and be successful, so he is not trusting either fighter heavily. He sees this as a good matchup for Tafa to find a knockout, but not a lock play.

Paul Shaughnessy also picks Tafa but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Tafa is only 4-2 and has shown inconsistency, but believes he is the better striker and that Vanderaa's wrestling advantage may not be enough. He suggests passing on the moneyline and instead looking for a better price on Tafa by knockout, or live betting.

The MMA Guru predicts Justin Tafa will win by first-round KO via uppercut. He dismisses Vanderaa's wrestling as garbage and expects Tafa to chop at the calf early, slowing Vanderaa down. Then Tafa will catch him against the cage with an uppercut, leading to a TKO finish.

Big Brady picks Spencer based on her superior level of competition (fought Nunes and Cyborg) and grappling advantage, expecting her to get takedowns and work ground-and-pound. He notes Dumont's limited tape and unknown takedown defense, but worries if Dumont stuffs takedowns, Spencer's striking could be exposed. He predicts a decision win.

Cody Saftic picks Felicia Spencer but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Spencer is tough and durable, with a grappling advantage, but her striking is rudimentary and she struggles to get takedowns against good wrestlers. Dumont is also a grappler, and the fight could be close. Saftic worries that if the fight stays standing, Spencer could lose a decision. He prefers the underdog Dumont at plus money.

Daniel Levi picks Norma Dumont, citing concerns about Felicia Spencer being a one-trick pony with submission grappling and poor striking. He notes Dumont's physicality, power, and that she has been training in Las Vegas with John Wood and Joanne Calderwood, even hitting takedowns on college wrestler Evan Smith. He believes Dumont can keep the fight standing and piece Spencer up.

Matt picks Felicia Spencer to win by decision, though a submission wouldn't surprise him. He highlights Spencer's durability, having gone 25 minutes with Amanda Nunes and 50 minutes with Cris Cyborg without being finished. He believes Spencer's top game and grinding style will overwhelm Dumont, whose ground game is unknown. He notes Dumont may have better striking, but Spencer's pressure and takedowns should control the fight. He also mentions Spencer by KO at +900 as a potential prop due to ground-and-pound.

Paul Shaughnessy leans toward Norma Dumont as a dog, noting that the line has moved from +265 to +150, indicating value. He believes Dumont's grappling is comparable to Spencer's, and that the fight is close to 50-50. He points out that Spencer's only claim to fame is going five rounds with Amanda Nunes, but she lost every minute. He thinks Dumont's short notice and weight issues are concerns, but at plus money, she is worth a play.

The MMA Guru predicts Felicia Spencer will win by first-round arm triangle submission. He expects Spencer to get Dumont down against the cage after a clinch exchange, then sink in the submission. He envisions Spencer using underhooks to push Dumont back, securing a takedown with a slam and finishing with the arm triangle.

Big Brady slightly leans Ramos, citing his superior grappling and ability to mix in takedowns for control time. He notes Algeo's high output but also his vulnerability to takedowns (taken down multiple times in recent fights). He expects a close decision, with Ramos edging it via wrestling.

Cody Saftic is confident in Bill Algeo, citing his volume striking, cardio, and ability to stuff takedowns. He notes that Algeo has a black belt in BJJ and good wrestling, while Ramos has low output and relies on finishes. Saftic believes Algeo will outwork Ramos on the feet and win a decision, or possibly get a late finish. He calls Algeo a 'cash cow' and recommends the moneyline.

Daniel Levi leans toward Bill Algeo, citing Algeo's volume, output, and toughness. He acknowledges that Algeo gives up positions and gets hit, but believes his pressure and durability will be key. He notes that Ramos has mental lapses and has folded in late rounds, while Algeo keeps coming forward. He says it's a close fight and doesn't see value on either side betting-wise.

Matt picks Ricardo Ramos, though he is passing on betting this fight. He believes Ramos has the better Muay Thai and overall striking game, and that Algeo's unorthodox style won't work as well here. He notes Ramos is only 25 and still a prospect, while Algeo's win over Spike Carlyle is less impressive given Carlyle's cardio issues. However, he acknowledges both fighters are hittable and Ramos has durability questions. He likes Ramos by decision but is not confident enough to bet.

Paul Shaughnessy agrees with Saftic, picking Algeo based on volume. He notes that Ramos has low strike output (most significant strikes in a fight is around 50) and relies on finishes, while Algeo will land more and win a decision. He mentions that Algeo's performance against Ricardo Lamas was competitive, and that he has good takedown defense and cardio.

The MMA Guru predicts Bill Algeo will win by 29-28 decision. He expects Ramos to have a good first round with spinning techniques and back takes, but will slow down. Algeo will then take over in rounds two and three with body kicks and combinations, walking down Ramos and landing big shots.

Big Brady picks Hermansson to survive Shahbazyan's dangerous first round, then take over with takedowns and ground game. He notes Shahbazyan's cardio issues and high finish rate (91%) but believes Hermansson's grappling and experience will lead to a second-round submission. He acknowledges Shahbazyan could knock him out early.

Cody Saftic picks Jack Hermansson, criticizing the matchmaking for Shahbazyan. He notes that Hermansson is a strong wrestler with good cardio, while Shahbazyan has shown poor takedown defense and gassing issues. Saftic believes Hermansson will take the fight to the ground and wear Shahbazyan down, similar to what Derek Brunson did. He sees value at -150 and considers it a strong play.

Daniel Levi picks Edmen Shahbazyan, arguing that Shahbazyan is a young phenom with knockout power and takedown ability, and that his loss to Brunson was due to inexperience. He believes Jack Hermansson is a one-trick pony with poor striking defense and that he took too much damage in his last fight (broken orbital). He predicts Shahbazyan will knock out Hermansson in the first round, calling it a dog or pass situation.

Matt picks Edmen Shahbazyan by knockout, believing Shahbazyan's striking advantage and power will be too much for Hermansson. He notes Hermansson's defensive striking issues, having been hit by Cannonier, Vettori, and others. He thinks Shahbazyan's cardio issues may still exist, but he should finish within two rounds. He compares the matchup to Derek Brunson's win over Shahbazyan, but notes Brunson is more defensively sound than Hermansson. He likes Shahbazyan by KO at +265 and round 1 KO at +325.

Paul Shaughnessy agrees with Hermansson, noting that the line seems too good to be true. He points out that Hermansson has fought top competition and has good cardio, while Shahbazyan was dominated by Brunson. He suggests that if Shahbazyan wins, it would likely be by early knockout, but the longer the fight goes, the more it favors Hermansson. He recommends Hermansson by knockout at +265 as a prop.

The MMA Guru predicts Jack Hermansson will win by first-round submission via arm-in guillotine. He expects Shahbazyan to show improvements on the feet and stuff some takedowns early, but Hermansson will eventually catch him in a scramble as Shahbazyan tries to get back up, latching onto the guillotine for the finish.

Big Brady confidently picks Rothwell, expecting an early finish via knockout or submission. He notes Barnett's low level of competition and tendency to give up his back, while Rothwell's experience and power should be enough. He suggests an inside-the-distance prop.

Cody Saftic picks Ben Rothwell, noting that Barnett is a short, overweight heavyweight with poor cardio. He believes Rothwell will weather Barnett's early athleticism and then tire him out, eventually getting a TKO or submission. Saftic is intrigued by Rothwell by submission at 11-1, given Rothwell's history of submissions, but acknowledges Barnett has never been submitted. He suggests a small play on the prop.

Daniel Levi leans toward Ben Rothwell, noting that Rothwell has more UFC experience and that Chris Barnett has been knocked out by lesser competition. However, he is hesitant because Rothwell is at the worst point of his career, slow, and has not looked good in a long time. He calls it a dog or pass situation and says he cannot lay the price on Rothwell.

Matt picks Ben Rothwell to win by decision, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Chris Barnett is a live dog due to his deceptive athleticism and power, but thinks Rothwell's experience and clinch work will be enough. He is not trusting Rothwell at -310, as Rothwell doesn't always let his hands go. He expects a grinding decision rather than a finish.

Paul Shaughnessy picks Rothwell but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Rothwell is past his prime and has looked slow, but Barnett is a short-notice replacement with a history of gassing. He believes Rothwell will eventually get the win, but at -300, he prefers to pass or look for a prop. He mentions that Rothwell by knockout is around even money, which might be a better play.

The MMA Guru predicts Ben Rothwell will win by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. He expects Chris Barnett to come out wild with spinning attacks and big bombs in the first round, but will gas out due to short notice and poor conditioning. Rothwell will then take him down and finish with ground and pound in the second round.

Big Brady picks McGee, expecting him to survive Silva's dangerous first round and take over in rounds 2 and 3 due to superior cardio and output. He notes Silva's cardio fades, McGee's never been submitted, and his takedown defense and get-up game are solid. He predicts a 29-28 decision or late finish.

Cody Saftic picks Court McGee, expressing frustration with Cláudio Silva's ugly style but acknowledging Silva's ability to win. He believes McGee's cardio and durability will allow him to survive Silva's early takedowns and win the later rounds. Saftic notes that Silva has poor striking and takedowns, and that McGee is a good gatekeeper who should be able to sprawl and brawl. He suggests a live bet on McGee if Silva wins the first round.

Daniel Levi picks Cláudio Silva, citing Silva's aggression, opportunistic style, and world-class jiu-jitsu. He notes that Court McGee's style hasn't evolved, he's been getting dropped in fights, and he's 3-7 in his last 10. He predicts Silva will take McGee down and submit him, possibly becoming the first man to submit McGee. He also thinks Silva could win a decision if it goes three rounds.

Matt picks Court McGee by decision, but with very low confidence, calling it a stay-away fight. He notes McGee has looked past his prime, while Silva has a poor gas tank. He thinks McGee can nullify Silva's takedowns and pick him apart on the feet as Silva fades. However, he acknowledges Silva's elite jiu-jitsu is a threat, and McGee has never been submitted. He mentions a possible third-round finish for McGee at +1600 but is not confident.

Paul Shaughnessy agrees with McGee, noting that Silva is frustrating to watch and that McGee has better cardio and durability. He believes McGee will win the second and third rounds after surviving Silva's early grappling. He mentions that Silva's wins are often close decisions and that McGee is the logical choice.

The MMA Guru predicts Cláudio Silva will win by split decision in a very close fight. He expects McGee to outstrike Silva on the feet, but Silva will time takedowns and have close submission attempts that sway the rounds in his favor. He compares it to the Bobby Green vs Thiago Moises fight, but with Silva winning this time.

Big Brady confidently picks Bruno Silva, calling this a massive step down in competition. He highlights Silva's well-rounded skills (striking, wrestling, BJJ) and expects a first-round submission. He notes Rodriguez has never seen a third round and has been finished by questionable opponents.

Cody Saftic picks Bruno Silva, noting that Silva has shown improvement and is training with high-level partners. He believes Rodriguez is a low-level regional fighter who was knocked out by Adrian Yanez in his UFC debut. Saftic thinks Silva's well-rounded game and momentum will be too much for Rodriguez, and that Silva will get a finish. He acknowledges the price is high but sees value.

Daniel Levi picks Bruno Silva, stating that Silva is better everywhere—more explosive, more comfortable—and that Victor Rodriguez comes from a weak Alaskan regional scene and does not belong in the UFC. He predicts Silva will handle Rodriguez easily, possibly by first-round knockout or submission. He advises against laying the -350 price but is confident in the win.

Matt is very confident Bruno Silva finishes Victor Rodriguez, likely in the first or second round. He highlights Silva's performance against JP Buys, where he knocked him out in the second round, and his close fight with Woolen Backoff where he showed good takedown defense. He dismisses Rodriguez's power as a threat, noting Silva has faced heavier hitters. He recommends Silva inside the distance or the under 2.5 rounds, calling it a steal.

Paul Shaughnessy picks Bruno Silva but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Silva looked good against JP Buys but that Buys is not UFC caliber. He questions whether Silva's improvements are real and whether he can handle a step up. However, he acknowledges that Rodriguez's competition level is very low and that Silva should win. He suggests passing on the moneyline.

The MMA Guru predicts Bruno Silva will win by second-round TKO. He notes Silva's improving pacing and cardio, and expects Rodriguez to have range at flyweight but Silva will make it messy. The finish will come via a counter hook over the top after slipping Rodriguez's jab.

Big Brady picks Culibao based on superior competition and a strong performance against Charles Jourdain (a draw he thought Culibao won). He expects a decision win but notes a knockout wouldn't shock him. He acknowledges Nuerdanbieke's solid wrestling and striking but questions his level of opposition.

Cody Saftic picks Josh Culibao, noting that Nuerdanbieke's record is built on low-level Chinese competition and that he looked out of place in his UFC debut. He believes Culibao's boxing and takedown defense will be enough to win, likely by knockout. Saftic is interested in the under 2.5 rounds at plus money, as he expects a finish.

Daniel Levi picks Josh Culibao, noting that Culibao has faced tough competition in the UFC (Jalin Turner, Charles Jourdain) and has paid his dues training with Volkanovski. He believes Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is not ready for the UFC, citing the poor performances of Chinese male prospects and the difficulty of the long flight from China. He expects Culibao to get his first UFC win.

Matt picks Josh Culibao by KO, but is not betting the fight due to the high price (-250). He thinks Culibao's toughness and pressure will be too much for Shayilan, who has faced weak competition. He notes Chinese fighters have not performed well in the UFC recently. He sees Culibao landing better strikes and possibly mixing in takedowns, and likes the KO prop at +350.

Paul Shaughnessy picks Culibao, echoing Saftic's concerns about Nuerdanbieke's level of competition. He notes that Culibao has fought tougher opponents and that his boxing looked improved in his last fight. He believes Culibao will win by knockout or decision, but prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet.

The MMA Guru predicts Josh Culibao will win by first-round TKO via a straight right hand. He believes Culibao will be too fast and powerful in the opening round, and that Nuerdanbieke's only chance is a first-round finish. Culibao will land a straight right down the pipe to put Nuerdanbieke down and finish him.

Big Brady picks Dvořák, citing his superior striking output and defense. He notes Dvořák's high finish rate (79%) compared to Paiva's 35%, and expects Dvořák to outland him over three rounds. He sees the fight staying standing and predicts a decision win, though he'd have interest if the line drops further.

Cody Saftic picks Juancamilo Ronderos as a dog, noting that Dvořák's competition level is questionable and that Ronderos has more experience against better opposition. He believes Ronderos's pressure and awkward striking will test Dvořák, and that the fight is closer to 50-50. He likes the plus money value.

Daniel Levi picks Juancamilo Ronderos (referred to as 'Holiyon Paiva' in transcript, likely a mispronunciation of Juancamilo Ronderos), citing his durability, brawling style, and training at Alpha Male. He acknowledges Dvořák's technical skills and positional advantages but is concerned about Dvořák's chin, noting he got wobbled in previous fights. He thinks Ronderos can edge it out but calls it a dog or pass situation.

Matt picks Juancamilo Ronderos (referred to as Holly and Paiva) as a strong dog pick. He believes Paiva's outside striking and movement will trouble Dvořák, who has fought more willing opponents. He notes Paiva should have won the Kai Kara-France fight and was competitive against Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He thinks Paiva's reach and technical striking will earn him a decision, and calls this one of his stronger dog leans.

Paul Shaughnessy does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup but does not state a preference, instead deferring to Saftic's analysis. He seems uncertain and does not offer a pick.

The MMA Guru predicts David Dvořák will win by third-round TKO. He expects Ronderos to come out aggressively in the first round looking for a finish, but Dvořák will defend and then invest in leg kicks in the second round. By the third round, Dvořák's cardio and accumulated damage from front kicks and leg kicks will lead to a TKO finish against the cage.

Big Brady confidently picks Ismagulov, calling him two levels above Alves stylistically. He highlights Ismagulov's 100% takedown defense, phenomenal striking defense (69%), and Alves' poor cardio and chin. He expects a knockout finish, noting Alves has been knocked out three times and slows after the first round. He acknowledges the layoff as the only concern.

Cody Saftic picks Damir Ismagulov, praising his technical boxing, takedown defense, and unflappable style. He notes that Ismagulov has beaten tough opponents like Joel Alvarez and Thiago Moises, and that Alves has struggled with weight cuts and has a journeyman record. Saftic believes Ismagulov will win by decision, controlling the fight with his jab and staying out of danger. He suggests a parlay with the over in the Spencer fight.

Daniel Levi picks Damir Ismagulov, praising his smooth, well-rounded striking and discipline. He respects Rafael Alves but notes that Alves missed weight due to personal tragedy and may not be fully focused. He predicts Ismagulov will cruise to a 30-27 decision, though he acknowledges the price is steep and there's no betting value.

Matt picks Damir Ismagulov to win by decision, despite a two-year layoff. He praises Ismagulov's technical striking, combination punching, and takedown defense. He notes Alves has cardio issues and a history of missing weight, which could worsen his gas tank. He expects Ismagulov to keep the fight standing and outpoint Alves over three rounds. He also considers a third-round finish prop at +800 due to Alves' potential fade, but prefers the decision line at -125.

Paul Shaughnessy picks Ismagulov, noting that he looks like a top-10 talent and that Alves is moving up in weight after missing weight badly. He believes Ismagulov's jab and takedown defense will be too much, and that Alves will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He suggests passing on the moneyline due to the price, but likes Ismagulov by decision or in a parlay.

The MMA Guru predicts Damir Ismagulov will win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Rafael Alves to win the first round with early takedowns and big moments, but Ismagulov will establish his jab and technical stand-up in rounds two and three, securing takedowns late in those rounds to win on the scorecards.