Julian Marquez

"The Cuban Missile Crisis"
3-5
Record
Age / DOB 36
(May 08, 1990)
Height 6' 2"
Weight 185 lbs.
Reach 72.0"
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages
5.06 Sig. Strikes / Min
45.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
5.35 Absorbed / Min
50.0% Strike Defense
0.0 TD Avg / 15 min
0.0% TD Accuracy
54.0% TD Defense
2.6 Sub. / Fight
Win Methods (3)
KO/TKO 0
Submission 3
Decision 0
Loss Methods (5)
KO/TKO 4
Submission 0
Decision 1

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
KO R1 4:45
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Brundage 1 44 of 79 55% 68 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:48
Julian Marquez 0 37 of 73 50% 53 of 96 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Brundage 1 44 of 79 55% 68 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:48
Julian Marquez 0 37 of 73 50% 53 of 96 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Brundage 44 of 79 55% 39 of 71 1 of 2 4 of 6 34 of 65 5 of 8 5 of 6
Julian Marquez 37 of 73 50% 31 of 64 5 of 8 1 of 1 24 of 51 13 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Brundage 44 of 79 55% 39 of 71 1 of 2 4 of 6 34 of 65 5 of 8 5 of 6
Julian Marquez 37 of 73 50% 31 of 64 5 of 8 1 of 1 24 of 51 13 of 22 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Marquez (-155), Brundage (+130)

Round 1
The year is 2025, and the UFC has placed Brundage (10-6, 1 NC; 4-5, 1 NC UFC) and Marquez (9-5, 3-4 UFC)—two men with UFC records below .500—in a co-main event slot. With dueling walkouts of “Fantasy” by Mariah Carey for the former and the Beastie Boys’ “Sabotage” for the latter, all 50 or so people visible in the Apex are having a blast. The middleweights will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith. They touch gloves. Marquez runs forward and stops just before getting kicked in the head, but Brundage comes at him with a knee and a massive right hand. A second bomb of a right hand hurts Marquez, who stumbles back and bounces off the fence to stay afloat. Brundage leaps at him with a flying knee, and when he misses, Marquez pushes him away and may have gotten away with an eye poke. Brundage wipes at his eye and lets loose a head kick, and he chops at the front leg with a kick. Brundage sits down on a right hand when Marquez is aiming at the body, and he beats “The Cuban Missile Crisis” to the punch with a jab and an overhand right. Brundage snaps the head back with an uppercut, and he gets pushed back from the blunt force of a clubbing punch from his opponent. Brundage leaps at his man and lands on the ground, and Marquez dives down for a possible takedown. Brundage locks up a Dave Schultz front headlock, and Marquez fights out of it, gets to his feet and drills Brundage with a left hand. Brundage shakes it off and strikes back with a right hand up top, and both men start swinging for the fences from up close. Brundage breaks up the firefight with a head kick, and he leans back as a right hook zooms past him. Brundage settles himself down and chips at the front leg, and Marquez snaps out a power jab and follows it with a monster right hand that dislodges Brundage’s mouthpiece. Brundage, in grave danger, leans over and finds himself in guillotine choke danger. Through sheer force of will, Brundage leans up and surges into action with hilariously damaging punches. Brundage knocks Marquez’ mouthpiece out as well in a scene out of an action movie, and both men blast one another with everything they have. Smith finds a moment to pause and give them both their gumshields back, and they replace them and come back out swinging.
With shades of the Toughman contests of old, both middleweights decide that it is time to slug one another in the face violently and brutally until Marquez hits the deck courtesy of a tremendous right hand. Brundage leaps on top and starts blasting with his free right hand, and Marquez desperately shoots for a takedown to try to get his wits back. Brundage does not let his man off the hook, hammering the MMA Lab fighter with thudding blows. Smith implores Marquez to fight back, but the way Brundage is positioned from behind with his left arm wrapping up Marquez, Marquez is unable to posture up or defend himself. As punches continue rapping Marquez upside the head, Smith has no choice but to say enough is enough and call an end to this ridiculous slobberknocker.
Overcome with emotions, a tear-stricken Brundage roars, and the Apex gets about as loud as it possibly can be after that gunslinger’s duel giving it up for the two men in the Octagon. Marquez removes his gloves after the terrific match but does not appear to leave them in the cage, perhaps deciding not to make a rash decision after such a fun clash.

The Official Result
Cody Brundage def. Julian Marquez R1 4:45 via TKO (Punches)
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Cody Brundage

Angelo picks Cody Brundage, citing his wrestling background, power, and the fact that Julian Marquez is coming off back-to-back knockout losses with a year layoff. He acknowledges Brundage's questionable fight IQ but believes he is a good fighter overall. He also notes that both fighters are exciting and expects the fight to end early.

Under on total rounds (fight likely ends early)
"Cody Brun wins this fight I don't know if it's going to be as clear as the Power Bomb win over Zack ree but I do think Cody brunish can win this fight but like every other Cody Brundage or Julian Marquez fight I bet your life on the under"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady hesitantly picks Julian Marquez, citing his durability and heart, as well as a slick submission game. He notes Cody Brundage is more skilled but has a bad nail and may quit if hurt. He predicts Marquez will win by first-round submission after Brundage gets hurt and shoots for a takedown.

Marquez by submission round 1; 'club and sub'
"I'll pick Marquez to win this fight by submission club and sub... give me Julian Marquez first round club and sub"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Connor picks Marquez, noting that Brundage has a single idea that quickly exhausts, while Marquez is a willing scrapper who can fight through adversity. He mentions that Marquez has been getting knocked out lately but still has the toughness to outlast Brundage. Connor also jokes about Marquez's personality but sticks with him as the pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm still picking marquez. But this is a stupid ass fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

The host expects a chaotic matchup and suggests the under 1.5 rounds is the best bet. He leans with Marquez, believing his power striking and slick submissions can catch Brundage, who has been hurt repeatedly. However, he notes Brundage could also catch Marquez, who has lost three straight by knockout. He predicts a club-and-sub within the first round and a half.

under 1.5 rounds minus 150, club and sub within first round and a half
"I'm going to have to lean with Marquez as I believe his power striking approach and Slick submissions could eventually catch Brundage in some trouble we've seen Brundage get hurt over and over again and I think Marquez is able to do that here although on the flip side Brundage might be able to catch Marquez with something considering all three of his recent losses have come by knockout but I'm going to go with Marquez here and look for him to get a club and sub eventually within the first round and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Cody Brundage

The Guru picks Cody Brundage over Julian Marquez. He notes Marquez is on a three-fight losing streak, older, and possibly struggling with drinking. Brundage is younger, hungrier, and has finishing potential. He predicts a finish for Brundage.

"I'm going with Cody Brundage... I'm going to say that Cody brandage gets this one done maybe by finish himself."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Zane picks Marquez despite his recent knockout losses, citing Marquez's willingness to scrap and fight through adversity. He notes that Brundage has a one-plan approach that falls apart after 30 seconds, and while Brundage might have a good idea early, Marquez's brawling will eventually overwhelm him. Zane acknowledges the fight is low-level but favors Marquez's toughness.

Marquez opened -147, now -137; Brundage opened +113, now +124. Zane says the line should be dead even.
"So, yeah, i'm i'm still picking marquez. But this is a stupid ass fight."
TKO (body kick and punches) R1 0:20
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zachary Reese 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 1 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zachary Reese 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 1 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zachary Reese 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zachary Reese 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Zachary Reese

Angelo leans Zachary Reese, but with low confidence. He notes that Reese is massive for the weight class and has power, but he looked stiff in his last fight and was power bombed. Julian Marquez is tough and dangerous everywhere, but he has been knocked out in his last two fights and has a year layoff. Angelo thinks Reese can weather the early storm and beat a fading Marquez.

"I still believe in zachar I think he can avoid some chaos early weather a storm and I think he can beat a fledging Julian Marquez low confidence here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady picks Julian Marquez to win by first-round knockout. He is not sold on Zachary Reese's UFC caliber, noting his poor competition and tendency to end up on bottom. He thinks Marquez is the much better striker and will smoke Reese if his suspicions are correct.

knockout round 1
"give me Julian Marquez to win this fight I'll say it's first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zachary Reese

Cody picks Reese as a slight underdog, noting that Marquez has significant health issues and has not looked good in recent fights. Reese is a big, athletic fighter with first-round finishing ability, but his cardio is untested. Cody believes if Reese can survive the first round, Marquez's poor cardio and durability issues will allow Reese to take over. He acknowledges it's a shot in the dark but leans towards Reese.

"this program we've gotus 130 plus 110 so Reese is the dog that's the side I'm that's the side I'm regardless that was yeah regardless that was the side I was going to end up taking but it's a shot in the dark dude it's a lot of assumptions on ree's part"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Daniel picks Marquez based on experience, noting that Reese has never faced real competition and was fraud-checked by Cody Brundage. He acknowledges Marquez has looked terrible since returning from injury but believes his durability and veteran tactics can overcome Reese's size and reach. He calls it a dart throw but leans Marquez.

"I just have to go with Julian Marquez based off the experience he's been there done that"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Julian Marquez

Jacob picks Julian Marquez, noting that Reese eats right hands and was slammed by Cody Brundage. He thinks Marquez will come forward and land bombs, and Reese's chin is suspect. He also warns that going to the ground with Reese is dangerous due to his length, but Marquez's power should be enough. Jacob is confident Marquez gets the win.

"Julian Marquez throws right hands and this dude seems to eat right hands I'm going Julian Marquez"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Marquez is a veteran power puncher with a sneaky submission game, while Reese is reckless and was knocked out by a slam in his last fight. This should be a barn burner with both throwing heavy shots. Marquez should finish Reese quickly, making under 1.5 rounds a strong play at -155.

under 1.5 rounds at -155
"I'm leaning more so the under one and a half more than anything I'm currently seeing it around minus 155 which I think is a tremendous line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zachary Reese

Paul picks Reese, citing Marquez's health issues and inactivity. He notes that Reese is younger, longer, and has more pop in his hands. Paul thinks this will be a sloppy fight and favors the younger fighter with less wear and tear. He expects Reese to have a chance if he can avoid Marquez's early power.

"this is going to be a slot Fest Cody um and in a slop Fest I am more like likely to go with the guy who's a little bit younger a little bit less wear and tear"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zachary Reese

The Guru picks Reese because he questions Marquez's motivation, saying Marquez seems more focused on being a personality than fighting. He notes Marquez has taken a lot of damage in his last two fights (losses to Mark-Andre Barriault and Gregory Rodrigues). Reese is younger and hungrier, and the Guru thinks Reese will catch Marquez in the first round. He acknowledges Reese lost to Cody Brundage by slam KO but was going for a submission.

First-round finish prediction
"I'm going to go Zachary Reese first round finish"
TKO (punches) R2 4:12
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc-André Barriault 0 82 of 171 47% 83 of 172 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 0 109 of 222 49% 127 of 246 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc-André Barriault 0 48 of 107 44% 48 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 0 32 of 80 40% 32 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marc-André Barriault 0 34 of 64 53% 35 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 0 77 of 142 54% 95 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc-André Barriault 82 of 171 47% 63 of 142 10 of 18 9 of 11 63 of 141 19 of 30 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 109 of 222 49% 91 of 202 18 of 20 0 of 0 60 of 133 49 of 89 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc-André Barriault 48 of 107 44% 36 of 88 8 of 13 4 of 6 41 of 98 7 of 9 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 32 of 80 40% 25 of 72 7 of 8 0 of 0 31 of 77 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Marc-André Barriault 34 of 64 53% 27 of 54 2 of 5 5 of 5 22 of 43 12 of 21 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 77 of 142 54% 66 of 130 11 of 12 0 of 0 29 of 56 48 of 86 0 of 0
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Angelo picks Julian Marquez, citing his toughness, power, and ability to snatch submissions in scrambles. He notes that Marquez hits harder and has proven MMA jiu-jitsu. Angelo believes Marquez will come forward and not quit, while Barriault can fold under pressure.

"I like Julia Marquez here outside of getting knocked out in that last fight that dude will come forward he will bomb away he's not going to quit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Big Brady picks Barriault, citing his volume, cardio, and pressure on the feet, as well as the ability to wrestle if needed. He notes Marquez has power and submissions but is less defensively sound. He predicts a decision win for Barriault, acknowledging Marquez's danger.

"the pick for me is going to be Mark Andre Barrio and it's gonna be Mark Andre Barrio by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Cody picks Barriault, believing his volume and clinch work will overwhelm Marquez. He notes Marquez has declined in durability and explosiveness after injuries. He thinks Barriault wins by decision or late finish.

Fight goes to decision (+225)
"I end up taking Mark Andre Barrio"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Connor picks Julian Marquez, despite concerns about his recent stylistic changes. He believes Marquez's natural dynamism and ability to fight through chaos will overcome Barriault's more methodical but less dynamic game. Connor notes that Barriault has improved but still lacks the finishing threat and creativity that Marquez possesses, and that Marquez's submission grappling could be a factor.

"I'll side with you and take Marquez, but I'm I'm not really all that confident in it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Jacob is very confident in Julian Marquez, stating that Barriault does not belong in the UFC. He notes Marquez's power, pressure, and no-quit attitude. Jacob believes Marquez will unload on Barriault against the fence and finish him. He also mentions that Marquez may use grappling more in this fight.

"I think Mark Andre sucks I mean there's they're one of these guys does not belong in the UFC"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Barriault is a solid pressure fighter with good cardio and clinch work. Marquez has finishing power but his only path to victory is a KO, and he has been controlled in the clinch before. Barriault will use forward pressure and volume to win a decision, possibly with late finishing opportunities.

"I get why Barrio is the favorite here... if the durability issue of Barrio is not as great as I believe it is in my head Barrio should be able to have complete success in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Paul picks Barriault and has a bet on Barriault by decision at +225. He thinks Marquez's wrestling won't be enough and Barriault's volume will carry him to a decision win.

Marc-André Barriault by decision (+225)
"I took a fight ghost a decision plus 225"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

The MMA Guru picks Marc-André Barriault, noting Marquez is wild and coming off a KO loss. He believes Barriault's technical style and ability to grind out decisions against wild opponents will lead to a 29-28 win.

"I'm gonna go with Marc Andre Barrio... being able to grind out a decision win here 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Zane also picks Marquez, though he is not confident. He thinks Barriault's pressure and clinch work will force Marquez to abandon his new kickboxing approach and revert to brawling, which favors Marquez. Zane notes that Marquez is a dangerous submission grappler and has a knack for winning chaotic fights, but he worries about Marquez's recent overcorrection in style.

"I'll take Julian Marquez as well, but I think it's gonna have to basically be shaken out of his yeah."
KO (punches) R1 3:18
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 0 13 of 42 30% 13 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 3 49 of 72 68% 50 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 0 13 of 42 30% 13 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 3 49 of 72 68% 50 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 13 of 42 30% 8 of 36 0 of 1 5 of 5 13 of 36 0 of 6 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 49 of 72 68% 46 of 67 3 of 5 0 of 0 33 of 49 3 of 6 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 13 of 42 30% 8 of 36 0 of 1 5 of 5 13 of 36 0 of 6 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 49 of 72 68% 46 of 67 3 of 5 0 of 0 33 of 49 3 of 6 13 of 17
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues, noting his well-rounded skills, BJJ black belt, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Julian Marquez's sneaky submissions and toughness but believes Rodrigues will be the better wrestler and grappler. He warns that the fight could look like Rodrigues' loss to Armen Petrosyan if he gets outstruck.

"gregory rodriguez is the pick but clear path for julian marquez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by decision. He believes Rodrigues has a clear path to victory by taking Marquez down, as Marquez has been controlled by wrestlers before. He notes Rodrigues is a legit BJJ black belt and should mix in takedowns, though he questions if Rodrigues will actually do it. He thinks Rodrigues can also win on the feet but prefers the grappling route.

decision
"I like rodriguez here i think he has a clear path to victory whether he chooses to use it or not we'll see"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody picks Rodrigues but is hesitant due to short notice and Rodrigues' cardio issues. He thinks Rodrigues is dangerous everywhere and Marquez has health problems and long layoffs. He plans to keep Rodrigues low on his card.

"rodriguez is a decent enough price tag it's the short notice of it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues, stating he is better than Julian Marquez everywhere—cleaner hands, harder punches, black belt jiu-jitsu. However, he worries about Rodrigues' decision-making, chin, and gas tank, noting Marquez has a history of coming back from adversity to finish fights. Levi thinks Rodrigues should dominate but is concerned he might find a way to lose, making the -180 price unappealing. He picks Rodrigues but with low confidence.

Rodrigues -180 is too high; Marquez +158 has comeback value
"robocop's better than this guy everywhere julian marcus it's like how is he gonna [ __ ] this up"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodrigues should dominate on the feet and Marquez's best work is in grappling. He's concerned about Rodrigues' short notice and cardio but thinks Marquez's health issues make Rodrigues the pick.

"i think gregory rodriguez is actually a pretty decent price in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, noting his good recent performances and power. He worries about Julian Marquez's tendency to make fights close and his long layoff (since April 2021). He believes Rodrigues has a reach advantage and will catch Marquez in a war, finishing him in the late second round. He calls Marquez a 'not bad underdog' but trusts the favorite.

late second round finish
"i think i'm gonna side with gregory rodriguez here over julian marquez... i'm gonna trust in gregory rodriguez to get this one done a little bit more powerful"
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:07
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Marquez 0 29 of 78 37% 29 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sam Alvey 1 61 of 100 61% 62 of 101 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Marquez 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 0 27 of 52 51% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julian Marquez 0 5 of 24 20% 5 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sam Alvey 1 34 of 48 70% 34 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Marquez 29 of 78 37% 21 of 64 4 of 8 4 of 6 28 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 61 of 100 61% 46 of 78 15 of 22 0 of 0 41 of 75 1 of 1 19 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Marquez 24 of 54 44% 16 of 44 4 of 5 4 of 5 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 27 of 52 51% 19 of 38 8 of 14 0 of 0 26 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julian Marquez 5 of 24 20% 5 of 20 0 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 34 of 48 70% 27 of 40 7 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 24 0 of 0 19 of 24
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady picks Marquez to win by decision, despite Marquez having a 100% finish rate. He thinks Marquez will pressure and outpoint Alvey, who has not won in a long time and takes a lot of damage. Brady is not confident in the pick and is passing on betting, as he finds the fight potentially boring and the line not appealing. He notes both fighters are durable and the fight likely goes to decision.

"i'm going to take marquez to win by decision which is weird because he has a 100 finish rate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Cody picks Marquez, citing his recovery from ring rust, James Krause's coaching, and Alvey's difficult weight cut to 185. He notes Alvey's low output and lack of offensive wrestling, while Marquez has better timing and power. He expects Marquez to edge it.

Over 2.5 rounds at +100 is favorite play
"i'm hitting this over two and a half at plus one hundred"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Alvey

Daniel Levi picks Sam Alvey, despite acknowledging that Alvey is a long-term fade and the blueprint to beat him is well-known. He is not sold on Julian Marquez, viewing him as an opportunistic finisher who looked horrendous against Maki Pitolo. Levi thinks the fight could be an ugly middleweight scrap that could go either way, so he goes with Alvey for the first time in years.

"I'm going to actually take alvey for the first time in years"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

The host leans Alvey for the value, noting that Marquez's win over Pitolo was a sloppy fight and that Alvey has decent takedown defense and power. However, he acknowledges that Alvey fights on the back foot and hasn't won in five fights. He picks Alvey by decision, but calls the fight a 'slop fest' and advises against betting it.

"i lean alvey in terms of the value here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Paul leans Alvey, noting his durability and ability to lull opponents into slow fights. He wants to see weigh-ins but thinks Alvey's counter-punching and experience could be factors. He is not confident due to Alvey's losing streak and weight cut.

"it would be dogger pass i would take smile and sam"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

The MMA Guru picks Julian Marquez by first-round KO, despite calling Marquez 'so bad' and 'sloppy'. He notes Marquez has big power and a great chin, while Sam Alvey is moving down to middleweight after being knocked out previously. He thinks Marquez will lose some grappling exchanges early but then land a big right hand to finish Alvey. He expects Alvey to be 'frowning' after the loss.

first round knockout
"i see a first round ko for julian marquez"
Submission (anaconda choke) R3 4:17
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Marquez 0 32 of 65 49% 70 of 110 5 of 11 45% 1 1 9:07
Maki Pitolo 0 41 of 100 41% 61 of 129 0 of 1 0% 4 1 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Marquez 0 10 of 16 62% 18 of 29 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:24
Maki Pitolo 0 4 of 8 50% 8 of 13 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:11
2 Julian Marquez 0 11 of 23 47% 41 of 54 3 of 4 75% 0 1 3:02
Maki Pitolo 0 11 of 40 27% 17 of 49 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:57
3 Julian Marquez 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 27 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:41
Maki Pitolo 0 26 of 52 50% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:46
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Marquez 32 of 65 49% 16 of 46 12 of 14 4 of 5 22 of 52 7 of 8 3 of 5
Maki Pitolo 41 of 100 41% 37 of 94 3 of 4 1 of 2 18 of 72 15 of 16 8 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Marquez 10 of 16 62% 5 of 11 4 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 7 5 of 6 2 of 3
Maki Pitolo 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Julian Marquez 11 of 23 47% 7 of 17 3 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 19 2 of 2 1 of 2
Maki Pitolo 11 of 40 27% 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 29 0 of 0 7 of 11
3 Julian Marquez 11 of 26 42% 4 of 18 5 of 5 2 of 3 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maki Pitolo 26 of 52 50% 22 of 47 3 of 4 1 of 1 13 of 38 12 of 13 1 of 1
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady picks Julian Marquez to win by finish, likely knockout in the second round. He thinks Marquez is the better fighter and that Pitolo has looked poor in the UFC, slowing down and being finished multiple times. He notes Marquez has a 100% finish rate and a sneaky ground game. He is concerned about Marquez's long layoff but thinks he will be prepared.

Marquez by finish; under 1.5 rounds; would bet Marquez if line drops to -120 or -110
"I like marcus here i like marcus here i know it's a risk with the long layoff"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Julian Marquez

Daniel Levi leans toward Julian Marquez but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Marquez's size and power, and that he can wear on Pitolo. However, he worries about Marquez's layoff and cardio, and thinks Pitolo could have improved training with Brad Tavares. He believes if Marquez doesn't finish early, Pitolo's volume and hands could take over. He ultimately says the lean is Marquez but it might be a pass.

Marquez by finish if early; Pitolo could win if fight extends; mentions Marquez's layoff and Pitolo's training partners
"the lean is marcus but i think it might be dog or pass actually"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Maki Pitolo

The host leans toward Pitolo as an underdog, citing his better technical striking and hand speed. He notes that Marquez has been out for three years and relies on forward pressure and big shots, which Pitolo can counter with movement. He expects Pitolo to outpoint Marquez over three rounds, though he admits some hesitation.

"i feel like the technical aspects of mackie pitolo's game will cause julian marquez some issues"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Maki Pitolo

The Guru picks Maki Pitolo as an underdog, citing Julian Marquez's long layoff and sloppy technique. He believes Pitolo's cardio and chin will allow him to survive Marquez's early power, then wear him down with body shots in the clinch and secure a third-round TKO. He notes that Marquez has never looked impressive and that Pitolo is more technical.

Pitolo by third round TKO
"i'm going to pick mackie patolo as an underdog here... i think he goes out there and just eventually wears on julian marquez and i will actually call a third round tko for mackie patolo"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessio Di Chirico 0 50 of 116 43% 55 of 122 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:59
Julian Marquez 0 47 of 147 31% 49 of 149 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessio Di Chirico 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Julian Marquez 0 11 of 48 22% 11 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Alessio Di Chirico 0 9 of 28 32% 13 of 33 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:36
Julian Marquez 0 17 of 39 43% 18 of 40 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
3 Alessio Di Chirico 0 22 of 43 51% 23 of 44 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:06
Julian Marquez 0 19 of 60 31% 20 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessio Di Chirico 50 of 116 43% 30 of 90 14 of 19 6 of 7 48 of 107 1 of 2 1 of 7
Julian Marquez 47 of 147 31% 28 of 120 16 of 21 3 of 6 42 of 141 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessio Di Chirico 19 of 45 42% 10 of 34 6 of 8 3 of 3 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 11 of 48 22% 7 of 44 3 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alessio Di Chirico 9 of 28 32% 6 of 23 3 of 4 0 of 1 7 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 7
Julian Marquez 17 of 39 43% 10 of 27 6 of 9 1 of 3 14 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Alessio Di Chirico 22 of 43 51% 14 of 33 5 of 7 3 of 3 22 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 19 of 60 31% 11 of 49 7 of 9 1 of 2 17 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:42
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Marquez 0 32 of 64 50% 37 of 69 0 of 3 0% 3 0 0:54
Darren Stewart 0 33 of 58 56% 37 of 66 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Marquez 0 21 of 40 52% 26 of 45 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:20
Darren Stewart 0 19 of 36 52% 23 of 44 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:22
2 Julian Marquez 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 2 0% 2 0 0:34
Darren Stewart 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Marquez 32 of 64 50% 29 of 60 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 30 17 of 24 7 of 10
Darren Stewart 33 of 58 56% 28 of 53 3 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 34 17 of 23 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Marquez 21 of 40 52% 19 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 14 11 of 16 7 of 10
Darren Stewart 19 of 36 52% 16 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 10 of 24 9 of 11 0 of 1
2 Julian Marquez 11 of 24 45% 10 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 16 6 of 8 0 of 0
Darren Stewart 14 of 22 63% 12 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 10 8 of 12 0 of 0