UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision. He believes Usman has more paths to victory, including controlling the fight against the cage and using his wrestling. He notes that Burns' level of competition is lower and that Usman's takedown defense is perfect. He thinks Burns' only path is a submission, but Usman hasn't been submitted in over a decade. He expects a boring fight but a clear win for Usman.

Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision, citing Usman's relentless work rate and output. He notes that Usman lands far more strikes than Burns (e.g., 175 vs Colby, 130 vs RDA) and questions Burns' ability to maintain pace over five rounds. He acknowledges Burns' power and submission threat but believes Usman's pressure and cardio will wear him down. He also mentions the former teammate dynamic and that Burns must have fight-changing moments to win.

The host believes Usman is the better fighter with superior wrestling, pace, pressure, and strength. He notes that Burns' impressive run includes wins over an aging Tyron Woodley and a past-prime Demian Maia, and that Burns has never faced pressure like Usman's. He expects Usman to drown Burns in the later rounds with his cardio and clinch work, predicting a decision victory.

The Guru picks Gilbert Burns as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight that should not have such wide odds. He believes Burns has better stand-up and grappling technique, dangerous knockout power, and the advantage of training with Usman's former teammates at Sanford MMA who know his weaknesses. He also notes Usman's recent broken nose and recovery issues. He predicts Burns will catch Usman in an exchange and win by TKO in the first or second round.

Big Brady slightly leans with the underdog Maycee Barber in a 50/50 fight. He thinks Barber will be the stronger, more aggressive fighter and land the harder shots. He notes that Grasso has struggled with her ground game and that Barber could get takedowns. He is not confident and says it could go either way, depending on whether judges favor volume or power.

Daniel Levi picks Maycee Barber, emphasizing her power advantage and finishing ability. He notes that Barber started her career with a three-fight KO streak and believes power overrides technique in women's weight classes. He acknowledges Grasso's technical striking but thinks Barber's power and ground-and-pound will be decisive. He also mentions that Barber is bigger and hits harder, and that the line movement favors her.

The host favors Grasso's superior boxing and technical striking, noting that Barber's kryptonite is a technical boxer who can stand her ground and counter. He questions Barber's recovery from ACL surgery and believes this is too tough a test for her return. He expects Grasso to outbox Barber over three rounds and win a decision.

The Guru picks Alexa Grasso, citing her superior boxing technique and experience against tougher competition at strawweight. He notes Maycee Barber's long layoff due to an ACL injury and her tendency to get hit by wild shots, as seen in the JJ Aldridge fight. He believes Grasso's reach advantage and technical one-twos and leg kicks will allow her to pick Barber apart for a unanimous decision win.

Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum to win by decision, but with no confidence. He thinks Gastelum's recent losses are to top competition and that Heinisch is a step down. He believes Gastelum has better takedown defense, cardio, and striking. However, he acknowledges Gastelum has looked awful and Heinisch has heart and grit. He advises staying away from betting this fight.

Daniel Levi picks Kelvin Gastelum but with low confidence, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He acknowledges Gastelum is the better fighter on paper but questions his motivation and recent performances since the Adesanya fight. He notes Gastelum's inconsistency and that Heinisch could sneak a decision if Gastelum doesn't show up. He ultimately picks Gastelum as a pure pick but advises against betting him at -225.

The host believes Gastelum has the better hands and will be able to keep the fight on the feet, outstriking Heinisch. He notes that Heinisch's grappling-heavy style has struggled against wrestlers like Brunson and Akhmedov, and that Gastelum is a crafty grappler himself. He predicts a third-round TKO as Gastelum's power and pace overwhelm Heinisch late.

The Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he is more technical and has better takedown defense. He notes that Ian Heinisch slows down in later rounds, and Gastelum's youth and cardio will allow him to push the pace and finish Heinisch in the third round via TKO. He compares the matchup to Gastelum's win over Tim Kennedy.

Big Brady picks Julian Marquez to win by finish, likely knockout in the second round. He thinks Marquez is the better fighter and that Pitolo has looked poor in the UFC, slowing down and being finished multiple times. He notes Marquez has a 100% finish rate and a sneaky ground game. He is concerned about Marquez's long layoff but thinks he will be prepared.

Daniel Levi leans toward Julian Marquez but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Marquez's size and power, and that he can wear on Pitolo. However, he worries about Marquez's layoff and cardio, and thinks Pitolo could have improved training with Brad Tavares. He believes if Marquez doesn't finish early, Pitolo's volume and hands could take over. He ultimately says the lean is Marquez but it might be a pass.

The host leans toward Pitolo as an underdog, citing his better technical striking and hand speed. He notes that Marquez has been out for three years and relies on forward pressure and big shots, which Pitolo can counter with movement. He expects Pitolo to outpoint Marquez over three rounds, though he admits some hesitation.

The Guru picks Maki Pitolo as an underdog, citing Julian Marquez's long layoff and sloppy technique. He believes Pitolo's cardio and chin will allow him to survive Marquez's early power, then wear him down with body shots in the clinch and secure a third-round TKO. He notes that Marquez has never looked impressive and that Pitolo is more technical.

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Vieira to win by submission. He believes Vieira is levels above Hernandez in grappling, as he is called the 'black belt hunter.' He notes that Hernandez's path to victory is a knockout, but Hernandez is not a knockout artist. He expects Vieira to get a takedown and finish the fight quickly.

Daniel Levi confidently picks Rodolfo Vieira by first-round submission. He describes Vieira's grappling as 100/100 and his striking as 30/100, but believes one takedown will end the fight. He notes that Hernandez has been hurt to the body and finished before, and that Vieira's BJJ is elite. He expects Vieira to take Hernandez down, take his back, and submit him quickly.

The host reluctantly sides with Vieira, acknowledging his high-level jiu-jitsu and physical strength, but believes the line is too wide. He notes that Hernandez is a live dog with durability and pressure, and that Vieira has shown striking vulnerabilities. He prefers the under 1.5 rounds or 'fight doesn't go to decision' props over betting Vieira straight.

The Guru picks Rodolfo Vieira, emphasizing his phenomenal grappling and physical strength advantage. He believes Vieira will be too strong for Anthony Hernandez, taking him down easily and finishing with an arm triangle choke in the first round. He notes Vieira's ability to recover and adjust, as seen in his fight against Saparbek Safarov.

Big Brady picks Belal Muhammad to win by decision. He thinks Muhammad is better everywhere and deserving of being a big favorite. He notes that Lima absorbs more than he gives out and has been knocked out multiple times. He sees Muhammad winning by decision or possibly a knockout, and considers Muhammad a fine parlay piece.

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision, citing his high work rate and pressure. He notes that Lima must finish to win, but Belal's output and takedown mixing should overwhelm him. He acknowledges Lima's power and calf kicks but believes Belal's pace is too much. He says Belal is the rightful favorite and should win clearly.

The host picks Muhammad to win but considers the fight closer than the odds suggest. He notes that Lima has a path to victory with his striking and range, and that Muhammad's all-around game may struggle if Lima uses calf kicks effectively. He warns that he might bet Lima if the odds reach +350 or +400.

The Guru picks Belal Muhammad confidently, calling it one of his most confident picks on the card. He believes Muhammad's wrestling and stand-up will be too much for Dhiego Lima, who he sees as chinny and lacking durability. He predicts Muhammad will mix takedowns with striking, wear Lima down, and finish with ground-and-pound TKO in the second round.

Big Brady picks Mallory Martin to win by decision. He initially leaned towards Viana but after digging in, he thinks Martin will get top control and stay safe. He notes that Viana was submitted by Veronica Macedo and that Hannah Cifers stayed safe on top against Viana. He believes Martin's wrestling and top control will be the difference, though he is not high on Martin after her fight with Cifers.

Daniel Levi picks Polyana Viana to win by first-round finish. He notes that Viana is a first-round finish or bust, with most wins coming in the first round. He acknowledges Martin's toughness and heart but points out her slow starts. He believes Viana can catch Martin early, but if it goes to the scorecards, he would edge Martin. He predicts a first-round finish for Viana.

The host picks Viana as a dog, believing her jiu-jitsu will be the difference if the fight goes to the ground. He notes that Martin's wrestling could play into Viana's submission game, and that Viana's reckless style makes a finish likely. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop at +190.

The Guru picks Mallory Martin, largely because Polyana Viana lost to Hannah Cifers, which he considers disqualifying. He believes Martin will win the ground exchanges and positional control, earning a unanimous decision. He does not see a submission for Martin but expects her to edge out a grappling-heavy decision.

Big Brady picks Gabe Green to win by knockout. He thinks Green is very live to win and finish Rowe. He notes that Rowe doesn't use his reach advantage and that Green is good at closing distance. He expects a war and a finish, and he bet the under 2.5 rounds at plus money. He also thinks Green has solid ground game if it goes there.

Daniel Levi picks Philip Rowe, citing his size and reach advantage as the tallest welterweight. He notes that Rowe has potential and has been training with good partners. He criticizes Gabe Green's takedown defense and thinks Rowe can stay long, use his jab, and win with style points. He acknowledges Green's output but believes Rowe's physical advantages will be key.

The host leans toward Green, citing his well-roundedness and jiu-jitsu, but admits low confidence. He notes that Rowe has a size and reach advantage but is green and hesitant. He expects Green to get the fight to the ground and secure a submission, possibly in the first round.

The Guru picks Gabe Green, citing his tougher competition at lightweight and his activity advantage over Philip Rowe, who hasn't fought since August 2019. He believes Green's pressure and technical striking will outwork Rowe, leading to a unanimous decision win. He notes that Rowe's only advantage is size and range, but Green's experience and youth will prevail.