UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland

Big Brady is confident in Vettori, citing his superior grappling and takedown defense. He notes that Holland has poor takedown defense (51%) and has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers. Brady believes Vettori will take Holland down and likely secure a submission, as Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions that Holland's knockout power is overrated and Vettori has a great chin. Brady has already bet Vettori and may add him to a parlay.

Cody picks Vettori, citing Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to quit when tired. He notes Vettori's durability, cardio, and ability to outwork Holland over five rounds. He mentions Holland's cardio collapses after two rounds and that Vettori can pressure and strike with him. He also parlayed Vettori.

Daniel Levi picks Marvin Vettori to win, noting that Vettori is a tough fight for anyone in the middleweight division and has shown improved boxing. He mentions that Vettori is very hittable but has an incredible chin, and that Kevin Holland's takedown defense weakness was already known. Levi thinks the line at -350 is too steep and considers it a dog-or-pass situation, but still favors Vettori. He also notes that Vettori doesn't always shoot for takedowns and likes to stand and bang.

The host is confident in Vettori, citing his mean streak, determination, and wrestling advantage. He thinks Holland's mentality of 'just having fun' is a liability against a grinder like Vettori. He expects Vettori to take Holland down and ground-and-pound him, possibly getting a third-round TKO. He calls Vettori a solid parlay piece.

Paul agrees with Vettori, emphasizing Holland's mental fragility and poor cardio. He notes Holland's takedown defense issues and that Vettori can outwork him. He mentions the price is close to fair and that Vettori is a promising young fighter.

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Marvin Vettori, stating he would quit predicting fights if Vettori loses. He believes Vettori will use his grappling early, taking Holland down and securing a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes Holland's poor grappling defense, citing losses to Derek Brunson, Gerald Meerschaert, and Brendan Allen. He also mentions Holland's seven-inch reach advantage but thinks Vettori will avoid striking exchanges and go to the ground. He calls Vettori the biggest threat to Israel Adesanya in the division.

Big Brady slightly leans toward Yusuff, citing his power, volume, and pressure. He notes that Yusuff lands 6.10 significant strikes per minute with 49% accuracy, while Allen is defensively sound but lower volume. Brady thinks the smaller cage favors Yusuff's pressure. However, he is not overly confident and acknowledges Allen's defensive skills and the money coming in on Allen. He has no bet on this fight.

Cody picks Yusuff, praising his refined Muay Thai and well-rounded game. He notes Yusuff's losses are old and he's improved, while Allen relies on grappling but may not get takedowns. He thinks Yusuff wins striking exchanges and has better cardio.

Daniel Levi picks Sodiq Yusuff, giving him a slight edge due to his 'Nigerian horsepower' and superior grappling, particularly his top control and get-up game reminiscent of Jose Aldo. He notes that Yusuff has been wobbled in fights but recovers quickly due to his conditioning. Levi respects Arnold Allen's clean boxing and fight IQ but thinks Yusuff's power and wrestling might be the difference. He calls it a high-level fight that could go either way.

The host likes Allen's technical striking, balance, and defensive soundness. He thinks Allen will be faster to the punch and that Yusuff's chin is suspect. He picks Allen to win by decision, noting that the line is close and that Allen offers good value as a slight underdog.

Paul picks Yusuff, highlighting his striking advantage and Allen's reliance on grappling. He notes Allen's close fights and favorable matchmaking, while Yusuff is sharper and has better cardio. He suggests the fight goes the distance.

The MMA Guru picks Arnold Allen as an underdog, noting he would have picked him even as a slight favorite. He believes Allen has better technique, more experience, and a proven chin, while Yusuff has been rocked in past fights. He thinks Allen will use straight shots, calf kicks, and front kicks to outpoint Yusuff, who relies on looping hooks. He mentions Allen's broken hand in the Nick Lentz fight but still won every round. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Allen.

Big Brady picks Marquez to win by decision, despite Marquez having a 100% finish rate. He thinks Marquez will pressure and outpoint Alvey, who has not won in a long time and takes a lot of damage. Brady is not confident in the pick and is passing on betting, as he finds the fight potentially boring and the line not appealing. He notes both fighters are durable and the fight likely goes to decision.

Cody picks Marquez, citing his recovery from ring rust, James Krause's coaching, and Alvey's difficult weight cut to 185. He notes Alvey's low output and lack of offensive wrestling, while Marquez has better timing and power. He expects Marquez to edge it.

Daniel Levi picks Sam Alvey, despite acknowledging that Alvey is a long-term fade and the blueprint to beat him is well-known. He is not sold on Julian Marquez, viewing him as an opportunistic finisher who looked horrendous against Maki Pitolo. Levi thinks the fight could be an ugly middleweight scrap that could go either way, so he goes with Alvey for the first time in years.

The host leans Alvey for the value, noting that Marquez's win over Pitolo was a sloppy fight and that Alvey has decent takedown defense and power. However, he acknowledges that Alvey fights on the back foot and hasn't won in five fights. He picks Alvey by decision, but calls the fight a 'slop fest' and advises against betting it.

Paul leans Alvey, noting his durability and ability to lull opponents into slow fights. He wants to see weigh-ins but thinks Alvey's counter-punching and experience could be factors. He is not confident due to Alvey's losing streak and weight cut.

The MMA Guru picks Julian Marquez by first-round KO, despite calling Marquez 'so bad' and 'sloppy'. He notes Marquez has big power and a great chin, while Sam Alvey is moving down to middleweight after being knocked out previously. He thinks Marquez will lose some grappling exchanges early but then land a big right hand to finish Alvey. He expects Alvey to be 'frowning' after the loss.

Big Brady is very confident in Nunes, calling her one of his most confident picks on the card. He highlights Nunes' excellent takedown defense (77%) and her ability to stuff takedowns from elite wrestlers like Tatiana Suarez. He criticizes Dern's takedown accuracy (5%) and zero takedown defense, arguing that Dern cannot get the fight to the mat. Brady believes Nunes will out-strike Dern and win a one-sided decision. He already bet Nunes at -110 and is happy with the pick.

Cody picks Nunes by decision, citing her superior game planning, striking volume, and takedown defense. He notes Dern's poor takedown accuracy and that Nunes can survive on the ground. He thinks Nunes will pepper Dern on the feet and win a decision.

Daniel Levi picks Nina Nunes, but expresses concern about her coming back after pregnancy, noting that many female fighters lay an egg in their first fight back. He thinks Nunes is the better overall fighter with good calf kicks and improving takedown defense, and if she keeps the fight standing and pulls the trigger, she can win a decision. However, he acknowledges that if Dern takes her back, it could be trouble.

The host thinks Nunes has the striking advantage with her jab and movement, and that Dern's takedown accuracy is poor. He notes that Dern's striking improvements are overblown, as she hasn't faced a striker of Nunes' caliber. He picks Nunes to win by decision, though he acknowledges the layoff and motherhood are concerns.

Paul picks Nunes, emphasizing her elite coaching at ATT, striking volume, and ability to avoid Dern's submissions. He notes Dern's takedown struggles and that Nunes can outwork her. He acknowledges the pregnancy layoff but thinks Nunes is the more refined fighter.

The MMA Guru picks Mackenzie Dern due to her recent activity and improvement, especially her win over Virna Jandiroba. He notes Nina Nunes has been out for a long time and has been controlled on the ground by wrestlers like Randa Markos and Claudia Gadelha. He thinks Dern will hustle to a close 29-28 unanimous decision, showing improved striking and grappling.

Big Brady picks Rodriguez to win a close decision, but he is not confident and is passing on betting. He notes that Perry is taking the fight seriously and looks in great shape, but he cannot trust Perry due to his poor striking defense and tendency to absorb damage. Brady thinks Rodriguez is more defensively sound and durable, and the fight likely goes to decision. He mentions the over might be a good look but does not bet.

Cody picks Rodriguez hesitantly, citing his output and sharper striking. He notes Perry's inconsistency and poor weight cuts, but acknowledges Perry's power and potential if in shape. He thinks Rodriguez's volume and reach advantage could be key.

Daniel Levi picks Mike Perry, viewing the fight as a coin flip. He notes that Perry has been in a good place mentally, training at MMA Masters, and that his last two fights he didn't train properly. Levi is skeptical of Daniel Rodriguez, citing his suspect chin and close fights against Gabriel Green and Nicolas Dalby. He thinks Perry's power and improved camp could be the difference.

The host is buying into the 'Papa Perry' narrative and the move to MMA Masters, expecting improvements in Perry's game, particularly calf kicks. He thinks Rodriguez is overrated and that Perry's power and durability could be key. He picks Perry to win by decision, though he acknowledges the weight cut is a concern.

Paul leans Rodriguez, noting Perry's mental and physical issues. He mentions Perry's poor weight cuts and lack of training, but acknowledges Perry's live underdog potential. He thinks Rodriguez's striking and cardio give him an edge.

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez by second-round submission (d'arce choke). He believes Rodriguez will rock Perry on the feet, causing Perry to shoot for a takedown into a choke. He notes Perry's decline since his nose injury and poor performance against Mickey Gall. He highlights Rodriguez's 10th Planet jiu-jitsu and recovery skills. He predicts a back-and-forth first round before Rodriguez finishes in the second.

Big Brady is very confident in Solecki, ranking him among his top picks on the card. He highlights Solecki's superior grappling, takedown accuracy (62%), and 100% takedown defense, while Miller has poor takedown defense (46%). Brady expects Solecki to take Miller down and control him on the mat, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Miller's guillotine threat but believes Solecki's black belt will keep him safe. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late submission.

Cody passes on this fight, finding the -230 price too high for Solecki. He thinks the grappling is a wash and Miller has better striking. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and fight goes the distance props.

Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing Jim Miller's age and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Solecki has improved his stand-up, as seen in the Austin Hubbard fight, and has a strong jiu-jitsu background. Levi thinks Miller's only path to victory is a first-round knockout, and if Solecki gets past that, he will take over. He also mentions that Solecki trains with John Salter and has a good mindset.

The host is a big believer in Solecki, citing his high-level jiu-jitsu, improving striking, and cardio. He thinks Solecki has the advantage everywhere, especially with Miller's poor takedown defense and tendency to slow down. He picks Solecki to win by decision or late submission, and notes that -235 is a fair price.

Paul also passes, noting Solecki's poor striking and Miller's experience. He thinks the fight will be a grappling match that goes the distance. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and fight goes the distance props.

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki by third-round rear-naked choke. He considers Solecki an underrated prospect who submitted Austin Hubbard easily. He notes Jim Miller has been out-grappled recently by Vince Pichel and is aging. He thinks Solecki will wear Miller down with body work against the cage and secure a submission in the third round.

Big Brady is very confident in Gamrot, calling him one of his most confident picks. He praises Gamrot's well-rounded skills, good cardio, and solid striking and wrestling. He notes Holtzman is older (37), coming off a knockout loss, and has average takedown defense (66%). Brady expects Gamrot to mix in takedowns and outwork Holtzman for a clear decision. He considers Gamrot a potential parlay piece.

Cody picks Gamrot, citing his superior grappling, cardio, and ring IQ. He notes Holtzman's takedown defense issues and age. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling and pressure will be too much, though he may start slow.

Daniel Levi picks Scott Holtzman, strongly believing that Mateusz Gamrot is overrated and his record is padded from fighting lower-level competition in KSW. He points out that Gamrot lost to Guram Kutateladze, whom Levi considers an average fighter. Levi thinks Holtzman's experience and toughness will be key, and he predicts a knockout. He also notes that Holtzman is a bigger underdog than he was against Beneil Dariush, which makes no sense to him.

The host thinks Gamrot is the more technical striker with good wrestling and fight IQ, and that Holtzman is declining at 37. He expects Gamrot to mix in takedowns and out-strike Holtzman over three rounds. He picks Gamrot to win by decision, though he notes the -235 line is a bit wide.

Paul picks Gamrot, noting his wrestling advantage and Holtzman's struggles against grapplers. He thinks Gamrot's technique and cardio will win out, though he may start slow. He expects Gamrot by decision.

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, calling him a much better well-rounded fighter than Scott Holtzman. He notes Holtzman is coming off a KO loss and is older. He thinks Gamrot will out-hustle Holtzman in grappling and could get a third-round submission, but safely predicts a 30-26 unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks Bahamondes to win by decision, citing his significant reach advantage (75.5" vs 68") and youth (23 vs 35). He believes Bahamondes will use his range to pick apart Makdessi, who is coming off an injury layoff. Brady notes Bahamondes has solid volume and technical striking, while Makdessi is low volume and older. He does not love the -190 line but expects Bahamondes to win.

Cody leans Bahamondes, citing his massive reach advantage and youth. He notes Makdessi's lack of takedowns and suspect chin. However, he acknowledges Bahamondes is green and untested. He does not bet it.

Daniel Levi picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his youth, height and reach advantage, and training at a high-level gym in Chicago. He notes that John Makdessi has never landed a takedown in his UFC career and has been knocked out multiple times. Levi expects Bahamondes to use his length and volume to out-strike Makdessi, predicting a first-round knockout. He also mentions that Makdessi has a history of skipping wrestling practice.

The host likes Bahamondes' size and reach advantage (7 inches in height and reach), and his fluid striking. He thinks Bahamondes will keep Makdessi on the outside with his jab and kicks, and that Makdessi will struggle to close the distance. He picks Bahamondes to win by decision, though he acknowledges the Contender Series curse could be a factor.

Paul leans Makdessi as a dog, noting his experience, striking volume, and ability to outpoint opponents. He mentions Makdessi's recent ACL surgery and layoff as concerns, but thinks Bahamondes is too green. He calls it a dogger pass.

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Ignacio Bahamondes but ultimately picks John Makdessi. He notes Makdessi is technically sound and out-landed Francisco Trinaldo in some rounds. He criticizes Bahamondes for close fights and being submitted earlier in his career. He thinks Makdessi's experience and grappling will be the difference.

Big Brady picks De Castro to win by first-round knockout, but he is not confident and is passing on betting. He notes De Castro is the more active fighter, while Danho has a massive layoff (4.5 years) and poor cardio. Brady acknowledges the fight is low level and could be sloppy, but he expects De Castro's power and activity to prevail. He would not lay the -300 price.

Cody picks De Castro, citing Danho's poor performance and long layoff. He notes De Castro's leg kicks and power, while Danho is a brute with no plan B. He parlayed De Castro with Vettori.

Daniel Levi picks Yorgan De Castro, calling Jarjis Danho a quitter and a weasel who tries to get DQ wins. He thinks De Castro's leg kicks and improved get-up game will be key, and that Danho fades after the first three minutes. Levi predicts a knockout, possibly from leg kicks setting up a head shot. He also notes that De Castro has less than 10 pro fights but this is a winnable matchup.

The host is not confident in De Castro at -285, calling him a 'can crusher' and noting his poor performance against Carlos Felipe. He thinks Danho is even worse, but De Castro's output is questionable. He picks De Castro to win by decision, but strongly advises staying away from betting this fight. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds as the only play.

Paul picks De Castro, calling Danho a 'weasel' who looks for ways out. He notes Danho's lack of UFC quality and De Castro's power. He thinks De Castro wins by decision or late finish.

The MMA Guru picks Yorgan De Castro by first-round KO. He notes De Castro has good power and a big KO win over Justin Tafa. He criticizes Danho as a 37-year-old who arguably shouldn't be in the UFC and had a draw in his last fight. He thinks De Castro, fighting for his career, will be urgent and finish Danho early.

Big Brady picks Shore to win by third-round submission, but he is not overly confident and is passing on betting. He notes Azure has good takedown defense early but poor cardio, while Shore has excellent cardio and grappling. Brady expects Shore to wear Azure down and secure a late submission, as Azure has faded in past fights. He would have bet Shore at the opener (-110) but not at the current -160.

Cody picks Shore, praising his wrestling, cardio, and durability. He notes Azure's cardio issues and tendency to fade. He thinks Shore will grind Azure down and get a late submission or decision.

Daniel Levi picks Jack Shore, but expects a closely contested battle. He notes that Shore is a submission specialist from Wales with good fight IQ, but Hunter Azure is a strong wrestler with power. Levi thinks Shore's stand-up will be tested and that Azure's power could change the momentum. He suggests it might be a dog-or-pass situation at the betting window.

The host is high on Shore, citing his great wrestling, top control, and cardio. He expects Shore to pressure Azure, suck his gas tank, and potentially get a third-round finish. He notes that Azure has questionable cardio and has slowed down in past fights. He picks Shore to win by third-round submission, and mentions that -160 is a good price.

Paul picks Shore, noting his grappling advantage and Azure's poor cardio. He thinks Shore will lean on Azure and tire him out. He took Shore by submission and round 3 props.

The MMA Guru picks Jack Shore by second-round rear-naked choke, though he admits worry. He notes Shore's grappling is not wrestling-based but uses body locks and cage pressure. He thinks Azure's muscular build will lead to openings in the second round, allowing Shore to take his back. He also mentions Shore's reach advantage and good knees and kicks.

Big Brady picks Griffin to win by decision, leaning on the underdog. He notes that Saldaña has limited available tape and has faced poor competition, while Griffin has more UFC experience and a solid grappling game. Brady expects Griffin to use takedowns and grind out a close decision, though he is not overly confident. He thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.

Cody leans Griffin as a dog, citing his experience and grappling advantage. He notes Saldaña's wins are over lower competition and that Griffin has fought tougher opponents. He thinks Griffin can win if he gets takedowns.

Daniel Levi picks Luis Saldaña, citing the 'Fight Ready' gym effect and Saldaña's improved kickboxing. He notes that Jordan Griffin makes questionable mistakes and has poor wrestling defense. Levi thinks Saldaña will separate himself in the later rounds with his kickboxing and win a close decision. He acknowledges that Griffin could be a live dog but goes with Saldaña.

The host thinks Griffin's best path is to make it a grinding, dirty fight by clinching and taking Saldaña down. He notes that Saldaña looked great on the Contender Series but that Griffin has more UFC experience and a better chance of getting the fight to the ground. He picks Griffin to win by decision, though he acknowledges that Saldaña is a flashy striker who could land a head kick.

Paul leans Griffin, noting his grappling advantage and Saldaña's lack of notable wins. He thinks Griffin's experience and ability to take rounds could be key. He calls it a dogger pass.

The MMA Guru picks Luis Saldaña but expresses doubt. He notes Saldaña has been submitted before but has improved his takedown defense with Henry Cejudo's help. He thinks Saldaña's front kicks to the body will be effective against Griffin, who is a great grappler. He predicts Saldaña will lose the first round but win the next two for a 29-28 decision.

Big Brady picks Jung to win by first-round knockout. He believes Jung is the better striker with significant power, and Knight is hittable with poor striking defense (33%). Brady expects Jung to stuff Knight's takedowns and land a knockout, as Knight has been knocked out before. He notes that if Knight can grind, he could win, but the more likely scenario is a Jung KO. Brady is passing on betting due to the line movement.

Cody picks Knight, citing his power, cardio, and ring IQ. He notes Jung's poor performance against Alvey and Knight's ability to come back from adversity. He thinks Knight's pressure and power will be too much.

Daniel Levi picks Da Woon Jung, despite his disappointing performance against Sam Alvey. He notes that Jung showed in the third round what he can do when he lets his hands go, and he has a significant height and reach advantage. Levi is concerned about William Knight leaving his chin up in the air and thinks Jung can capitalize. He is not sure about the method but picks Jung to win.

The host expects Knight to close the distance, clinch, and drag Jung to the ground, nullifying Jung's size and striking advantage. He notes that Knight is a dense, strong fighter with good durability, and that his grappling-heavy game plan should be effective. He picks Knight to grind out a decision victory, though he acknowledges that Jung has power and could land a knockout.

Paul picks Knight, calling him a 'poor man's Derrick Lewis' with power and cardio. He notes Knight's ability to get back up from takedowns and his ring IQ. He thinks Knight is a live dog.

The MMA Guru picks Da Woon Jung, citing his size advantage over the smaller William Knight. He thinks both are not technically great but Jung's reach and front kick will keep Knight at bay. He notes Jung has decent takedown defense and KO power. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Jung.

Big Brady picks Kasanganay to win by second-round knockout. He notes Kasanganay is moving down to welterweight and has good wrestling and striking, while Palatnikov has poor takedown defense and a questionable chin. Brady believes Kasanganay will take Palatnikov down or land a knockout on the feet, as Palatnikov is very hittable. He is excited to see Kasanganay's return after a devastating knockout loss.

Cody leans Palatnikov as a dog, citing his chin, cardio, and kicking game. He notes Kasanganay's greenness and rigid striking. He thinks Palatnikov can outvolume him and that the price is worth a shot.

Daniel Levi picks Impa Kasanganay, praising his work ethic and ability to grind opponents down. He notes that Kasanganay recovered quickly from the devastating knockout by Joaquin Buckley, which speaks to his conditioning. Levi thinks Kasanganay will out-strength and out-muscle Sasha Palatnikov, possibly winning 30-26 or by finish. He also mentions that Kasanganay is dropping to welterweight and has a good mentality.

The host believes Kasanganay is the sharper fighter with better technique, and that he will put it on Palatnikov. He notes that Kasanganay is moving down to 170, which should make him one of the bigger guys in the division. The only concern is the devastating knockout loss to Joaquin Buckley, but the host thinks that was a once-in-a-lifetime shot and shouldn't be held against him. He picks Kasanganay to win by decision, though he thinks the -290 line is a bit too high.

Paul picks Kasanganay, citing his athleticism and move to Sanford MMA. He notes Palatnikov's lack of notable wins and thinks Kasanganay's physicality and improvements will be key. He acknowledges the price is high but believes in the narrative.

The MMA Guru picks Impa Kasanganay, despite his recent KO loss to Joaquin Buckley. He notes Kasanganay is a good fighter who was starting to turn the tables before the finish. He thinks Palatnikov slows down after the first round, while Kasanganay maintains a steady pace. He predicts Palatnikov wins the first round but Kasanganay takes over for a 29-28 decision.