UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett

Angelo picks Calvin Kattar, citing his superior boxing, footwork, and technique. He notes Kattar's 90% takedown defense and believes he can avoid Emmett's power. He acknowledges the possibility of Emmett winning by power and damage (like Font vs Vera) but thinks Kattar's pressure and volume will win the decision.

Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Kattar is younger, taller, and has a reach advantage, and is the better striker with excellent boxing combinations. He acknowledges Emmett's power and seven-fight knockdown streak, but trusts Kattar's chin (never knocked down) and believes Kattar's volume and length will wear Emmett down for a late finish.

Cody believes Calvin Kattar's volume and technical striking will overwhelm Josh Emmett over five rounds. He notes Emmett's power is dangerous but Kattar's durability and head movement are elite, and Emmett rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kattar to pull away late and suggests Kattar by decision as a prop.

Daniel Levi leans Calvin Kattar as the minute winner, believing Kattar's jab and improved striking variety will keep him ahead on the scorecards. However, he emphasizes that Josh Emmett's one-punch power and ability to steal rounds make this a dog-or-pass betting situation, especially with Kattar at -230. He notes Kattar absorbs a lot of strikes and Emmett has knocked down every featherweight opponent, so a finish is possible either way. Levi ultimately sees it as a coin flip and prefers not to lay the heavy juice.

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Kattar's volume and technical superiority. He points out that Emmett's power is a threat but Kattar's durability and five-round experience favor him. He notes the over/under is set high, suggesting a decision is likely, and he picks Kattar as the rightful favorite.

The MMA Guru picks Calvin Kattar, trusting his technique and durability. He notes that Josh Emmett has power but has struggled against tough opponents like Jeremy Stephens and Dan Ige. He believes Kattar has better boxing, a good chin, and a front kick to keep Emmett at distance. He predicts Kattar will get hurt early but recover and finish Emmett in the third round via TKO.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his striking accuracy and power. He acknowledges Holland's poor takedown defense but believes Tim Means doesn't have the raw athleticism or power to exploit it like others. He thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy but still picks Holland.

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round knockout. He notes Holland has a significant reach advantage and power, while Means is older with diminishing durability and chin. He believes Means' best chance is grappling, but Means rarely implements that game plan, and Holland's BJJ black belt and improved get-up game should keep the fight standing where Holland can knock him out.

Cody is high on Kevin Holland at 170, citing his improved takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and size advantage. He thinks Tim Means lacks the wrestling and cardio to exploit Holland, and Holland will chip away for a late finish or decision. He notes Holland's guard is active and Means' recent wins are over lower-level competition.

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win via an opportunistic finish, citing Holland's unorthodox style and ability to create chaos. He acknowledges Tim Means is well-rounded and may have early success, but believes Holland's length and creativity will prevail. However, he is not confident Holland covers the -300 spread, noting Holland's takedown defense issues and that Means can mix in takedowns. Levi sees it as a high-variance fight where Holland finds a way, but the price is too steep for a comfortable bet.

Paul agrees Holland should win but is wary of the -275 price. He notes Holland's size, reach, and guard are advantages, but the high favorite line gives him pause. He doesn't love the matchup for Means but isn't sure he'll bet Holland at that price.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, calling it straightforward. He notes Holland's reach advantage and youth, and believes Tim Means will get cracked and hurt. He predicts Holland will win by KO via elbows in the clinch in the first round, similar to his win over Anthony Hernandez. He doesn't worry about Holland's grappling at welterweight.

Angelo picks Albert Duraev, citing his dominant wrestling and top pressure. He sees this as a clear striker vs grappler matchup: either Buckley wins early by KO or Duraev wins a control-heavy decision. He notes Duraev hasn't lost since 2015 and all his losses are by KO, so he sides with the wrestler.

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley as a dog to win by first-round knockout. He questions Duraev's chin and fight IQ, noting Duraev has been knocked out three times and showed poor takedown efficiency against Kopylov. He believes Buckley has legitimate power and takedown defense, and if Duraev can't get the fight down, Buckley will knock him out.

Cody picks Duraev but with caution, noting Duraev's chin issues (all three losses by first-round KO) and Buckley's power. He thinks Duraev's wrestling and grinding style should work, but Buckley could catch him early. He plans to keep Duraev low on his betting card.

Daniel Levi leans Albert Duraev, believing Duraev is the more skilled fighter and will grind out a win. He notes both fighters have suspect chins and cardio, but thinks Duraev's grappling and power give him an edge. However, he is not confident at -240, calling it a lean rather than a strong pick, and acknowledges Buckley's explosiveness could change the fight at any moment.

Paul is not excited about Buckley and leans toward Duraev, but he's concerned about Duraev's history of getting knocked out early. He thinks Duraev's wrestling should be the difference but acknowledges the risk of a first-round KO.

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley as an underdog, surprised that most people favor Albert Duraev. He questions Duraev's chin, noting he has been KO'd three times and looked sloppy against Roman Kopylov. He believes Buckley is a physical athlete with power and can stuff takedowns, eventually hurting and finishing Duraev. He predicts a KO via knee or uppercut combo.

Angelo picks Guram Kutateladze, citing his powerful striking, kicks, and submission threats. He notes that even when taken down, Kutateladze is active on the ground and can work back up. He believes Kutateladze will frustrate Ismagulov both on feet and ground. He suggests betting on Kutateladze moneyline or safety net bets like 'wins inside distance decision no action' or plus 3.5 rounds.

Big Brady picks Damir Ismagulov to win by decision, contingent on a good weight cut. He notes Ismagulov has excellent fight IQ, volume, and striking defense, while Kutateladze is powerful but low volume. He expects Ismagulov to be the minute winner on the feet and can mix in takedowns. He expresses concern about Ismagulov's weight cut and past eye issue.

Cody picks Ismagulov, citing his technical striking, excellent chin, and wrestling defense. He notes Kutateladze's cardio issues and two-year layoff, and believes Ismagulov will outpoint him over three rounds. He suggests Ismagulov by decision as a prop.

Daniel Levi is confident in Damir Ismagulov, praising his elite striking defense (1.9 strikes absorbed per minute), 100% takedown defense, and sharp boxing. He believes Ismagulov is a potential top-five talent and will outpoint Guram Kutateladze, who is tough but less polished. Levi notes Kutateladze's kicking game is dangerous, but thinks Ismagulov's fight IQ and experience will carry him to a unanimous decision. He is considering a bet on Ismagulov.

Paul picks Kutateladze as a dog, noting his training with Khamzat Chimaev and his power. He thinks Kutateladze can walk through Ismagulov's shots and land heavier strikes. He grabbed the line at +150 and believes the volume difference will be close, giving the edge to the Georgian.

The MMA Guru picks Guram Kutateladze, calling it risky. He notes Kutateladze is younger and more explosive, with good body kicks and skills off his back. He believes Damir Ismagulov has looked worse since his return, struggling against Rafael Alves. He thinks Kutateladze has a higher chance of a finish and will push the pace in later rounds, though he acknowledges Ismagulov is a good underdog.

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues, noting his well-rounded skills, BJJ black belt, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Julian Marquez's sneaky submissions and toughness but believes Rodrigues will be the better wrestler and grappler. He warns that the fight could look like Rodrigues' loss to Armen Petrosyan if he gets outstruck.

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by decision. He believes Rodrigues has a clear path to victory by taking Marquez down, as Marquez has been controlled by wrestlers before. He notes Rodrigues is a legit BJJ black belt and should mix in takedowns, though he questions if Rodrigues will actually do it. He thinks Rodrigues can also win on the feet but prefers the grappling route.

Cody picks Rodrigues but is hesitant due to short notice and Rodrigues' cardio issues. He thinks Rodrigues is dangerous everywhere and Marquez has health problems and long layoffs. He plans to keep Rodrigues low on his card.

Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues, stating he is better than Julian Marquez everywhere—cleaner hands, harder punches, black belt jiu-jitsu. However, he worries about Rodrigues' decision-making, chin, and gas tank, noting Marquez has a history of coming back from adversity to finish fights. Levi thinks Rodrigues should dominate but is concerned he might find a way to lose, making the -180 price unappealing. He picks Rodrigues but with low confidence.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodrigues should dominate on the feet and Marquez's best work is in grappling. He's concerned about Rodrigues' short notice and cardio but thinks Marquez's health issues make Rodrigues the pick.

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, noting his good recent performances and power. He worries about Julian Marquez's tendency to make fights close and his long layoff (since April 2021). He believes Rodrigues has a reach advantage and will catch Marquez in a war, finishing him in the late second round. He calls Marquez a 'not bad underdog' but trusts the favorite.

Angelo picks Tony Kelley in an upset, citing his forward pressure, volume, and ability to disrupt Adrian Yañez's rhythm. He notes Yañez's slow starts and willingness to brawl, which plays into Kelley's hands. He mentions Kelley's impressive win over Randy Costa (129 strikes to 32) and believes Kelley can maintain pace.

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by third-round knockout. He notes Yañez is a slow starter but has clear power advantage and good combinations, while Kelley is very hittable with 45% striking defense. He expects Kelley to win the first round but Yañez's damage to accumulate and lead to a late knockout.

Cody picks Yañez but emphasizes the over 2.5 rounds as the best bet on the card. He notes neither fighter has been finished and Yañez tends to have close fights. He thinks Yañez's technical striking will win but the fight goes to decision. He calls the over 2.5 a 'face slapper' line.

Daniel Levi leans Adrian Yañez, citing his cleaner hands and improved kicking game, plus the hometown advantage in Texas. However, he notes Yañez absorbs a lot of strikes (nearly six per minute) and Tony Kelley is a durable, high-output fighter who could make it competitive. Levi thinks it will be a close three-round fight and Yañez may get a decision, but the -280 price is too high for comfort. He acknowledges Kelley at +240 has value.

Paul is considering a Tony Kelley play, noting Yañez's struggles against aggressive fighters and his close split decisions. He thinks Kelley's durability and improved training with Andrea Lee make him a live underdog. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez, though he worries about his performance against Davey Grant. He believes Tony Kelley is tough but has been eking out close decisions. He expects Yañez to use better distance control and body shots, winning a decision (29-28 or 30-27) in a scrappy fight, with Kelley surviving but losing.

Angelo picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, citing her wrestling and ability to get takedowns. He notes Natália Silva's brawling style leaves her open to takedowns. He wishes Silva had a different debut matchup but believes Jasudavicius will avoid the brawl and secure takedowns.

Big Brady picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to win by decision, but is hesitant due to her cardio issues. He notes Jasudavicius has a size advantage (height and reach) and improved wrestling, while Silva is smaller. He expects Jasudavicius to bank the first two rounds, though she tends to fade in the third.

Cody leans toward Jasudavicius due to her wrestling and striking advantage, but he's cautious because Silva is young and has potential. He notes Silva's limited tape and long layoff, but women's MMA is unpredictable. He calls it a dogger pass situation.

Daniel Levi picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, highlighting her wrestling background (Olympic medalist in Canada) and physicality. He believes she will take Natália Silva down and avoid Silva's armbar attempts from guard. Levi thinks Jasudavicius is still green but has the right style to grind out a unanimous decision. He is confident she wins as long as she doesn't get caught in an armbar.

Paul picks Silva as a dog, noting her youth and six-fight win streak. He thinks the price is attractive and women's MMA is volatile. He acknowledges limited tape but sees value in the underdog.

The MMA Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, noting she is a better physical athlete with good takedown defense and her own takedowns. He believes Natália Silva is a decent prospect but not ready for this step up. He expects Jasudavicius to win a competitive 30-27 unanimous decision, using her clinch work and striking.

Angelo picks Court McGee, noting his recent grappling resurgence and dominant wins over Claudio Silva and Ramiz Brahimaj. He believes McGee's takedowns and control will lead to another decision win. He acknowledges Jeremiah Wells' danger but thinks McGee's durability and cardio will prevail.

Big Brady picks Court McGee to win by decision. He believes McGee is the more experienced fighter with better volume and technical striking, and has shown improved wrestling. He notes Wells has power but lacks volume and cardio, and McGee is extremely durable with only one finish loss. He thinks McGee will be the minute winner on the feet and can handle Wells' grappling.

Cody picks McGee, citing his durability, wrestling, and experience. He thinks Wells will come out hot but fade, and McGee will grind him down in rounds 2 and 3. He suggests McGee by decision as a prop.

Daniel Levi is confident in Jeremiah Wells as an underdog, citing Wells' athleticism, power, and black belt jiu-jitsu. He notes Court McGee is 37 and has lost five of his last eight, while Wells is younger and hungrier. Levi likes that Wells is getting plus money and believes he will be too fast and strong for McGee. He is considering a bet on Wells.

Paul agrees with McGee, noting Wells' one-dimensional style and McGee's takedown ability. He thinks McGee can survive the early storm and take over. He suggests waiting to see how round one goes before betting.

The MMA Guru picks Jeremiah Wells to win by KO, noting that Court McGee is 37 and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Wells is a freak athlete with explosive power and good grappling, as shown against Blood Diamond. He predicts Wells will catch McGee with a straight right and finish him in the first round.

Angelo picks Ricardo Ramos by decision, citing his ability to adjust his game plan based on opponent (striking vs grappler). He notes Ramos' dangerous striking and BJJ, and believes he will win the first two rounds and survive the third. He acknowledges Danny Chavez's toughness and durability.

Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos to win by decision. He notes Ramos is nine years younger, has a five-inch reach advantage, and is improving at a good gym. He believes Chavez is dangerous early with power but fades, and Ramos can mix in takedowns and win a decision if he survives the first round.

Cody picks Ramos, citing his BJJ, reach advantage, and improving striking. He notes Chavez's low volume and lack of finishing ability. He thinks Ramos can win by submission or decision and suggests Ramos by submission at +400.

Daniel Levi picks Ricardo Ramos, believing the 26-year-old has high potential and will finally put together a complete performance. He notes Ramos has shown flashes of brilliance and has good wins, while Danny Chavez is a finished product at 35. Levi warns about Chavez's calf kicks but thinks Ramos can avoid them and win everywhere else. He is confident Ramos will get the job done.

Paul likes Ramos' skill set but is wary of the -300 price. He thinks Ramos should win but the line is too high. He agrees with Cody's assessment of Chavez's limitations.

The MMA Guru picks Ricardo Ramos, citing his youth (26 vs 35), reach advantage, and recent good performances. He believes Ramos has found himself at featherweight and has unorthodox techniques. He worries about Chavez's calf kicks but thinks the range difference will allow Ramos to control engagements. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision.

Angelo picks Gloria de Paula, noting her stick-and-move striking style and improved wrestling (5 takedowns in her last fight). He acknowledges Maria Oliveira's power but believes de Paula's volume and new grappling dimension will secure the win.

Big Brady picks Gloria de Paula to win by decision, but is not overly confident. He likes de Paula's striking and believes she has more ways to win, including takedowns against Oliveira's poor takedown defense. He notes Oliveira has a massive hole in her ground game and quit in a previous fight, but de Paula's competition has been better.

Cody picks de Paula, citing her better technique and grappling advantage. He thinks she can outpoint Oliveira in a striking battle and mix in takedowns. He expects a decision but is cautious due to women's MMA volatility.

Daniel Levi leans Gloria de Paula, thinking she is better than her record indicates and has nice striking variety. He is not comfortable laying -275, but believes she should win a unanimous decision. He notes Maria Oliveira has shown questionable heart in the past, tapping to strikes, but also has some durability. Levi sees de Paula as the more skilled fighter but the price is too high for a confident bet.

Paul picks Oliveira as a dog, noting the wide line and women's MMA unpredictability. He thinks if one of the two underdogs hits, it could be Oliveira. He acknowledges de Paula is likely better but sees value in the dog.

The MMA Guru picks Maria Oliveira as his underdog of the card. He notes she is younger, bigger, and has a longer reach than Gloria de Paula, who has not impressed him. He points to de Paula's mediocre record and losses, while Oliveira has faced better competition. He predicts Oliveira wins by decision, questioning why de Paula is a heavy favorite.

Angelo picks Cody Stamann, citing his well-rounded skills, wrestling background, and pace. He notes Stamann averages almost 3 takedowns per fight and has no problem getting in his opponent's face. He acknowledges Eddie Wineland's experience and danger but believes Stamann's wrestling and pace will be the difference.

Big Brady picks Cody Stamann to win by second-round knockout. He acknowledges Stamann is a wrestler but believes he can outstrike Wineland, who has poor striking defense and a weak chin. He notes Wineland's takedown defense is historically good, but Stamann's power and Wineland's decline make a knockout likely.

Cody picks Stamann, noting his tough competition and advanced skill set. He thinks Wineland's chin and reflexes are gone, and Stamann will win by decision or TKO. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins due to Stamann's weight cut issues.

Daniel Levi confidently picks Cody Stamann, noting Eddie Wineland is damaged goods at 38 and has been knocked out by lesser fighters. Stamann is a competent, well-rounded fighter who wins rounds, though he rarely finishes. Levi expects a unanimous decision but acknowledges the -700 price is not worth betting. He simply states Stamann is the pick.

Paul agrees, noting Wineland's age and recent KO losses. He thinks the UFC is giving Stamann a favorable matchup and he should win easily. He also suggests waiting for weigh-ins.

The MMA Guru confidently picks Cody Stamann, calling it a no-brainer. He notes that Eddie Wineland is 37 and has taken a lot of damage, while Stamann is younger and has good grappling. He expects Stamann to use his wrestling to secure takedowns and ride out a 30-27 decision, as Wineland is a veteran unlikely to be submitted but unable to stop the grappling.

Angelo picks Phil Hawes despite acknowledging Deron Winn's superior offensive wrestling stats (almost 5 takedowns per fight, 52% accuracy vs Hawes' 33%). He compares it to the Brendan Allen vs Jacob Malkoun fight, where the more talented fighter (Hawes) can lose if he doesn't initiate takedowns first. He notes Hawes is the better mixed martial artist but Winn has a clear path if he shoots first.

Big Brady picks Phil Hawes to win by first-round knockout. He acknowledges Hawes has a questionable chin and cardio, but believes Hawes is much bigger with a six-inch height and 7.5-inch reach advantage, and has 100% takedown defense to stuff Winn's wrestling. He expects Hawes to knock out Winn early, likely in the first round.

Cody picks Hawes but is cautious due to Hawes' chin and cardio. He thinks Hawes' striking and power are advantages, and Winn's weight cuts and cardio issues are problematic. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to see Winn's condition.

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes confidently, stating Hawes has everything except a chin: D1 wrestling, one-punch power, and physicality. He believes Deron Winn is too short (5'4") and will struggle to take Hawes down. Levi thinks Hawes wins everywhere unless he gets knocked out, which is possible given his suspect chin. He expects Hawes to dominate and win, possibly by knockout.

Paul leans toward Hawes but is not confident. He notes both fighters are untrustworthy and the fight could be ugly. He thinks Hawes' reach and power are key, but Winn's wrestling could be a factor if he makes weight.

The MMA Guru picks Phil Hawes despite worrying about his weak chin, as seen in the Chris Curtis fight. He believes Hawes is much bigger and stronger than Deron Winn, who is too small for middleweight. He predicts Hawes will neutralize Winn's wrestling and land a knockout via a knee to the face in the second round.

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze because he is a world champion grappler, far superior to Kyle Daukaus in pure grappling. He notes Dolidze's power in his hands and believes the fight comes down to takedowns and takedown defense. He acknowledges Dolidze's cardio issues and low takedown defense (37%) but thinks Dolidze can win early rounds. He suggests a plus 3.5 round bet as a safer option.

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus to win by decision. He notes Dolidze has power but lacks volume and cardio, while Daukaus has better striking volume, cardio, and fight IQ. He also highlights Dolidze's poor fight IQ, such as dropping for leg locks and giving up positions, which Daukaus can exploit as a black belt.

Cody picks Daukaus, citing his improving striking, BJJ, and takedown defense. He thinks Dolidze's striking is poor and his grappling is overrated. He expects Daukaus to win on the feet or survive on the ground and take over late.

Daniel Levi leans Kyle Daukaus, thinking his hands have improved and he can grind out a win if he avoids Dolidze's leg locks. He notes Dolidze has power and a leg lock game, but if he doesn't secure a submission, he ends up on his back. Levi sees Daukaus as slightly ahead but the -265 price demands domination, which he doesn't expect. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation, with Dolidze at +220 having value.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Daukaus' improvements and Dolidze's lack of striking and cardio. He thinks Daukaus is the better fighter and should win.

The MMA Guru leans towards Kyle Daukaus, citing Dolidze's poor performance in his last fight where he struggled against an opponent he should have handled easily. He believes Daukaus is younger, improving, and capable in the clinch and at range. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Daukaus, noting that Dolidze's best wins have not been impressive.