Jafel Filho

Big Brady picks Jafel Filho over Cody Durden. He highlights Durden's struggles with grappling and submission defense, noting he has been submitted five times. He is impressed by Filho's performance against Clayton Carpenter, where he got a first-round Kimura. He predicts Filho will take Durden down and submit him in the first round.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Filho easily. He notes that Durden is on a terrible losing streak, has been finished repeatedly, and his only recent win is over a retired fighter. Connor also points out that Filho is a strong wrestler and submission artist, and that Durden's short notice makes the line even more justified.

The host thinks the odds are very wide and that Durden can cause Filho problems due to his scrambly wrestling and Filho's weakness off his back. However, Durden's terrible cardio is a major risk. He says it's an IQ test: impossible to bet Filho, so if you must bet, take Durden. He prefers live betting and will bet Durden +3.5 and over 1.5 rounds.

James picks Filho, expecting him to exploit Durden's grappling weakness with a submission win. He notes Filho's elite jiu-jitsu and early strength, predicting a first-round submission.

Angelo picks Clayton Carpenter as an underdog, stating he is a little bit better everywhere than Jafel Filho. He highlights Carpenter's wrestling, aggression, and chin, and notes that he expects Carpenter to be the favorite by fight night. He placed a half-unit bet on Carpenter at +103 odds.

Big Brady leans slightly toward Clayton Carpenter, favoring his striking and wrestling, and believes his cardio will hold up better. He notes Jafel Filho is a high-level grappler but worries about his cardio and striking. Brady expects a competitive fight with both having moments, but sees Carpenter winning a close decision. He says he would have liked Carpenter at plus money but is staying away at current odds.

Cody picks Carpenter confidently, citing his athleticism, footwork, and takedown defense. He notes Filho's low output and cardio issues, and believes Carpenter can win by outworking him in later rounds. He expects a decision or late finish.

Lucrative James flips his pick to Clayton Carpenter after initially considering Jafel Filho. He notes that Filho has early-round upside but fades, while Carpenter has better cardio and late-round finishing ability. He expects Carpenter to weather an early storm and win by decision or late finish. He is unconfident due to the fight being a pick'em.

Manpreet is confident in Carpenter, calling minus 125 a steal. He expects Carpenter's wrestling to take over after a competitive first round, leading to a decision win or late finish. He notes Carpenter's high ceiling and favorable matchup against Filho, who gassed against Nascimento.

Paul picks Carpenter but is concerned about fighting in Brazil. He notes Carpenter's superior striking and wrestling, but expects Filho to be dangerous early. He suggests live betting Carpenter after the first round.

Angelo picks Jafel Filho, noting his fast-paced style, solid takedown defense, and good fight IQ. He trusts Filho to be smart with aggression, unlike the unknown Gustafsson. He is concerned about Filho's lack of decision wins and Nascimento's durability (never finished), but believes Filho can win a decision if needed.

Big Brady expects a grappling-heavy fight and picks Allan Nascimento as the better grappler, noting he has never been submitted while Jafel Filho has been submitted twice. He believes Nascimento will eventually catch Filho in a submission later in the fight as Filho slows down. He predicts a third-round submission.

Matt leans with Jafel Filho at plus money. He believes Filho has good enough submission defense to neutralize Nascimento's grappling and is the better striker. Filho's calf kicks could slow Nascimento's takedown attempts. Matt expects Filho to win by decision, noting that Nascimento's losses have all come by decision.

Angelo is surprised Filho is a legitimate favorite. He acknowledges Filho's grappling advantage and size on the ground, and that Osbourne was taken down easily in his last fight. However, he has too much respect for Osbourne's striking and scramble skills to bet on this fight. He decides to leave it alone, making no pick.

Big Brady picks Jafel Filho to win by second-round submission. He believes Filho's toughness and ground game will be too much for Osbourne, who has poor cardio and has been submitted before. He expects Filho to survive an early onslaught and then take over.

Cody picks Jafel Filho, praising his grappling and finishing ability. He notes Osbourne is prone to mistakes and has submission issues. Filho can take a punch and will relentlessly pursue takedowns and submissions. He expects Filho to catch a submission once the fight hits the ground.

The host acknowledges Osbourne's early danger with speed and power but expects Filho to deal with that, wear on Osbourne against the cage, and drag him to the ground for a submission in the second or third round. He notes Osbourne tends to slow down and give up bad positions, similar to his fight against Alateng.

Paul also picks Filho, highlighting Osbourne's durability and submission issues. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop at -185, noting Filho comes hot and Osbourne may not withstand the onslaught. He mentions Filho has third-round finishes, showing he can finish late.

Angelo sees Jafel Filho coming out hot but fading, while Daniel Bárez maintains a high pace and doesn't slow down. He notes that even if Filho gets takedowns, Bárez will force him to work and exhaust him. Angelo is not betting on this fight, indicating a lean rather than a strong pick.

Big Brady picks Daniel Bárez to win by knockout in the second round. He is impressed with Bárez's striking, especially his body work, and believes he can keep the fight standing to avoid Filho's dangerous grappling. He notes Bárez's age (34) and debut as red flags but likes his finishing ability.

Cody picks Bárez, noting his power and takedown ability. He thinks Bárez is physically stronger and has better striking. He is concerned about cardio but likes the plus money for a wild fighter.

Daniel bet Daniel Bárez at +110 to win 2 units. He believes Bárez is a seasoned veteran who has fought top competition like Manel Kape and Carlos Hernandez, and should be the favorite. He praises Bárez's work rate, clean hands, body work, and leg kicks, contrasting with Filho's low output and reliance on opportunistic submissions. He is concerned about Filho's guillotine and back takes but thinks Bárez's pressure and activity will overwhelm him. He expects Bárez to win by TKO or decision.

The host leans with Daniel Bárez, citing his striking advantage and aggressiveness as keys to victory. He acknowledges that Filho could have success if he takes the fight to the ground, but expects Bárez's damage-heavy approach to prevail. The fight is described as a pick'em, and the host predicts Bárez by decision.

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Bárez's power and aggression. He notes Filho was submitted in his last fight and Bárez has finishing ability. He is willing to take a shot at plus money.

Angelo thinks Mokaev should win by wrestling and control, but he is concerned about the shoulder injury and the fact that Mokaev has been in trouble in recent fights. He notes Mokaev is not dangerous and gets taken down himself. He is staying away from betting because the odds are too wide and the shoulder is a red flag.

Big Brady picks Mokaev but notes shoulder injury concerns and the high price. He acknowledges Filho is solid but expects Mokaev to get takedowns and control. He predicts a decision win, as Filho has good grappling and has only been submitted once long ago. He will not bet this fight due to the -800 price.

Cody picks Mokaev, noting his wrestling and submission skills. He thinks Filho's takedown defense is not as good as Mokaev's previous opponents. He says Mokaev is young and still learning, but his grappling advantage should be decisive. He doesn't like the minus 800 price and suggests Mokaev by decision or submission, but says it's hard to bet props on a young fighter.

Connor picks Mokaev, noting that Filho's wrestling is a power-based game that will play into Mokaev's technical grappling. He warns that Mokaev sometimes tries to out-athlete opponents, but here he should be able to use his superior transitions and positional awareness. Connor sees this as a good step-back fight for Mokaev's development.

Jacob thinks Mokaev should win but is very concerned about the shoulder injury. He notes that a dislocated shoulder takes 12-16 weeks to heal and it has only been 11 weeks. He thinks Mokaev's comments about having no excuses are a red flag. He is not betting because the odds are too high and the risk is too great.

Mokaev is a relentless grappler with solid cardio and scrambling ability, though he can be flashy. Filho is a BJJ black belt with 16 fights of experience and solid all-around skills, but Mokaev's pace and control should be too much. The fight likely goes to decision, so the decision prop offers value. Mokaev remains undefeated.

Paul picks Mokaev, saying he's stopped fading him after looking foolish against Durden. He notes Filho's Contender Series fight was close and unimpressive. He says minus 800 is tough to bet straight, but Mokaev should win. He mentions Mokaev by submission is plus 100 and inside the distance is minus 130, but he's not sure which prop to take.

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by decision, despite some concerns about his recent performances. He notes Filho looked vulnerable on the contender series, being out-struck in early rounds and leaving his legs open. Mokaev should chop at the legs and use grappling to dominate, but the Guru expects a 30-27 or 30-26 decision rather than a finish.