UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal

Angelo leans on Aljamain Sterling, citing his five-round experience and wrestling edge. He acknowledges that Youssef Zalal is the better striker but believes Sterling's wrestling will be superior, referencing Sterling's performance against Movsar Evloev. He notes that Sterling opened as a favorite but is now an underdog, and he encourages rewatching the Evloev fight to see Sterling's scrambling ability.

Big Brady picks Youssef Zalal over Aljamain Sterling. He notes Zalal's recent improvements and finishing ability, and believes Zalal's cardio and pace will be advantages in a five-round fight. He thinks Sterling may slow down as the fight progresses, and predicts Zalal wins by decision.

Connor picks Sterling because he believes Sterling is more likely to get to his positions early and build a lead before Zalal's late surge. He notes Sterling's tendency to start fast and his experience against elite competition. However, he acknowledges Sterling's stamina issues and that his wins often feel unconvincing, but thinks Sterling's early rounds will be decisive enough to win a decision.

The host leans Zalal due to his output, aggression, pace, and volume, plus Sterling's decline and lack of power. However, he admits it's impossible to form a strong opinion because Zalal hasn't faced a wrestler like Sterling in years. He calls the odds fair coin-flip territory and passes on betting.

James picks Youssef Zalal based on stylistic matchup, believing Zalal's footwork and striking will cause problems for Sterling. He notes Zalal's recent improvements and age advantage, and predicts a finish inside the distance as Sterling gets desperate with takedowns.

Zalal is on an eight-fight winning streak with improved wrestling and submission defense. Sterling is a former champion but is 36 and has a questionable gas tank. Zalal should be able to defend Sterling's grappling, use his striking edge, and win a decision. He is the younger, more confident fighter with momentum.

Zane picks Zalal because he trusts Zalal's stamina for five rounds and doubts Sterling can maintain his dominant grappling game throughout. He notes Zalal has never been submitted and is excellent at scrambling out of positions. However, he admits it's hard to envision a clear winning path for Zalal and calls it a 'vote of faith' in Zalal's confidence and desire to win.

Angelo leans on Norma Dumont, calling her the far cleaner striker. He acknowledges that her takedown defense is worse than it should be and fears some MMA karma from her last decision win. He notes that Joselyne Edwards does a good job sneaking in takedowns but doesn't like pressure. He believes Dumont's hands are much better and she will stay more mobile.

Big Brady picks Norma Dumont over Joselyne Edwards (referred to as Josiane Nunes). He believes Dumont is better everywhere, with takedown ability, clinch work, and striking. He notes Edwards' wins are against lower-level competition and expects Dumont to win by decision, though the money line is getting high.

Connor also picks Dumont, noting that Edwards is not a good wrestler and only uses size to power takedowns. He thinks Dumont's strength will allow her to bully Edwards in the clinch. He is concerned that Dumont can be choosy and not take the fight, but hopes Edwards's aggressive personality will lead to a brawl where Dumont shines.

The host believes Dumont should win as she is better everywhere: more technical striker, better MMA grappler. Edwards has an advantage in cardio but is on short notice and has bad fight IQ. Dumont can be passive but Edwards has similar issues. The host sees no interesting betting opportunities in fight spreads or over/under.

James picks Norma Dumont as his Hammer of the Week, calling it a 'levels fight' despite the -200 price. He argues Dumont is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling, with superior competition and fight IQ. He notes Dumont is the best boxer in the division and can stuff takedowns, while Edwards has only beaten low-level opponents and lacks a plan C when her A and B fail. James expects Dumont to win via decision, as finishes are rare in women's MMA at this level.

James picks Norma Dumont, believing she is a level above Edwards with superior boxing. He thinks Edwards' path via takedowns is unlikely due to Dumont's takedown defense and Edwards' inconsistent wrestling. He predicts a decision win.

Edwards is on a four-fight winning streak with improved grappling and finishing ability. Dumont is on a six-fight winning streak but has looked less dominant against better competition and is hittable. Edwards has a reach advantage and can use her kickboxing and grappling to outwork Dumont. She should be able to secure a submission win, especially at plus odds.

Zane picks Dumont, expecting a clear outclassing. He notes that Edwards tends to struggle against more technical punchers and may try to force things, leading to getting picked off. He thinks Dumont's technical edge will make a difference, though he's not sure what kind of fight it will become once that edge is established. He hopes Edwards will try to storm Dumont and get hurt, making for an entertaining fight.

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez as the better fighter, citing his explosiveness, speed, cardio, and power. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges that Rafa García is the better straight wrestler, but believes Hernandez scrambles well and has good cardio. He expresses concern that Hernandez needs to pull the trigger and not be outworked.

Big Brady picks Rafa García over Alexander Hernandez. He sees advantages for García in boxing volume, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He expects a close fight but believes García's pace and cardio will be key, predicting a split decision win.

Connor picks Hernandez, citing his superior athleticism, wrestling, and speed. He notes that Garcia's game tends to stall against better athletes who can hit harder, and Hernandez fits that mold. He also points out that Hernandez's recent wins, though against mediocre competition, have built confidence. He believes Hernandez will use his movement and perimeter striking to avoid Garcia's pressure and win rounds.

The host thinks Garcia is the better fighter but had a poor last performance. He expects a stand-up fight where Garcia can pressure Hernandez and test his gas tank. He notes Hernandez slows down and Garcia is durable, having been finished only once. He will bet Garcia +3.5 because Garcia is very likely to win the third round, and the fight likely goes to decision.

James picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his athleticism and power advantage. He expects Hernandez to win the first two rounds and possibly fade in the third, but still outwork Garcia. He notes Garcia's toughness but believes Hernandez's level is higher.

Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak with good durability and volume striking. Hernandez has a four-fight winning streak but relies on power and wrestling, and he has a questionable gas tank. Garcia should be able to stuff takedowns, outwork Hernandez on the feet, and pull away in the later rounds to win a decision.

Zane picks Garcia as an aspirational pick, believing Garcia's durability and improved striking (as seen against Jared Gordon) could allow him to pressure Hernandez and exploit his psychological fragility. He acknowledges Hernandez's athleticism and wrestling, but thinks Garcia can win a close fight if he applies relentless pressure. He admits it's a stylistic risk but is willing to be wrong.

Angelo confidently picks Adrián Luna Martinetti, citing his insane volume, solid chin, and solid takedown defense. He notes that Davey Grant is 40 years old with a poor chin, and expects Martinetti to overwhelm him with strikes. He is surprised the odds are close and has bet on Martinetti.

Big Brady picks Davey Grant over Adrián Luna Martinetti. He notes Grant's age (40) but sees no decline, citing recent performances. He believes Grant is the better striker and more durable, and expects a competitive fight that Grant wins by decision.

Connor also picks Martinetti, noting that Grant's primary method of controlling fights is scaring opponents off, which won't work against a fearless fighter like Martinetti. He points out that Grant has struggled against younger, faster fighters who get into the pocket and win exchanges. He thinks Martinetti's desperation to have exchanges and his clinch offense will be enough to overcome Grant's experience.

The host believes Grant is a lot better than Martinez, who looked like a basic striker with poor wrestling and cardio in his Contender Series fight. Grant is more experienced, skilled, powerful, and has better cardio despite being 40. He acknowledges the risk of age-related decline but thinks Grant should win comfortably. He will bet Grant.

James picks Martinetti due to his youth (10-year age advantage) and similar high-volume style. He thinks Martinetti's takedowns and durability will outlast Grant, who is 40 and coming off a quick loss. He predicts a decision win.

Grant is a pressure fighter with power and a BJJ black belt, but he has been submitted multiple times. Martinetti is an unorthodox striker with good grappling, but his striking defense is suspect. Grant should be able to walk Martinetti down and land big shots, leading to a knockout. However, Martinetti could also land a flashy strike and submit Grant. The fight is expected to be chaotic and finish early.

Zane picks Martinetti, siding with youth and aggression. He notes that Grant is 40 and his style has aged, and that Martinetti's fearless, high-pressure approach may be enough to overwhelm Grant. He acknowledges Grant's toughness and countering ability, but thinks Martinetti's clinch work and relentless exchanges will wear Grant down. He calls it a 'sadness hedge' and admits he might be writing Grant off too early.

Angelo leans on Montel Jackson, noting his power and wrestling background. He points out that Jackson's three UFC losses came when he couldn't defend takedowns, but believes Raoni Barcelos's age may prevent him from getting takedowns. He worries that Jackson might be gunshy due to wrestling concerns, which could allow Barcelos to win with empty takedowns. He says Montel should win but the fight could get weird.

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson but with hesitation. He acknowledges Jackson's talent and power but notes his inconsistency and lack of effort in some fights. He believes if Jackson shows up, he can knock out Barcelos, who is older and has a questionable chin. However, he warns that Jackson could lose if he doesn't try.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Barcelos. He highlights that Jackson has a mental block and doesn't do enough, relying on his size to intimidate opponents. Barcelos, however, is not intimidated and will wrestle him. Connor notes that Jackson's losses all come from opponents who out-wrestled him, and Barcelos fits that mold. He thinks Barcelos's pressure and takedowns will lead to a win.

The host notes Jackson has many physical advantages but is mentally inconsistent, often passive and inactive. Barcelos is mentally strong, high output, and aggressive. He believes Barcelos has a good chance if Jackson is not at his best. He prefers Barcelos +3.5 because Jackson lacks killer instinct and often goes to decision, and Barcelos should win at least one round.

James picks Barcelos as an underdog, believing his veteran skills and pocket boxing will overcome Jackson's power. He thinks Barcelos can follow the blueprint from Figueiredo's win over Jackson, using takedowns and pressure to win a decision or late submission.

Barcelos is on a four-fight winning streak with improved durability and a well-rounded game. He can use lateral movement, kicks, and wrestling to neutralize Jackson's power. Jackson is gun-shy and struggles against wrestlers. Barcelos has more paths to victory and should win a decision, though he risks getting knocked out if he gets caught clean.

Zane picks Barcelos, noting that Jackson's losses come against wrestlers who take him down, and Barcelos is a good wrestler. He also observes that Barcelos's losses are to high-volume strikers, which Jackson is not. He thinks Jackson's tendency to coast and not do enough will be exploited by Barcelos's pressure and grappling. He acknowledges Barcelos is 38 but believes his style matches up well.

Angelo picks Ryan Spann confidently, calling him the much better striker with better cage awareness and killer instinct. He notes that Marcus Buchecha needs to get the fight to the ground or pray that Spann fades, but Spann has power and takedown defense that should hold up. He dismisses Buchecha's UFC performances as unconvincing.

Big Brady picks Marcus Buchecha over Ryan Spann. He questions Spann's fight IQ and training habits, noting Spann is a light heavyweight moving up. He believes Buchecha's size and grappling will be too much, predicting a first-round submission as long as Buchecha fights smart.

Connor also picks Buchecha, describing Spann as a fighter who visibly does not enjoy fighting and panics when hurt. He notes that Spann's anxiety leads him to wrestle frantically, which will get him submitted by Buchecha. He thinks Buchecha's jiu-jitsu is too much for Spann, and that Spann's only chance is an early knockout, which is unlikely.

The host is tempted to bet Spann as a slight underdog because Buchecha has terrible cardio and poor striking defense, while Spann has knockout power and better cardio. However, Spann has bad fight IQ, making it risky. He notes Buchecha is awful and he has made money betting against him before. He says if Spann wins, it will likely be inside the distance, so the moneyline is better than the fight spread.

James picks Buchecha, citing Spann's poor cardio and tendency to fade after round one. He believes Buchecha's durability, submission defense, and will to win will allow him to survive early danger and take over in later rounds.

Buchecha is a BJJ legend but has struggled to get takedowns and has poor striking. Spann has knockout power and a sneaky guillotine, but he has mental lapses and often gets finished early. Buchecha should be able to get Spann to the ground and submit him early, but the -145 price is not great value.

Zane picks Buchecha, noting that Spann is prone to panic and will likely try to wrestle early, which plays into Buchecha's strength. He points out that Spann hasn't won outside the first round since 2020 and is mentally fragile. Buchecha, despite being a raw MMA fighter, has a huge advantage on the ground. Zane expects an early submission.

Angelo picks Rodolfo Vieira but is hesitant, noting that Vieira is a world-class BJJ competitor but doesn't like to be hit and can turn his head away. He acknowledges that Eric McConico could give Vieira a hard time on the feet and that Vieira might shoot desperate takedowns. He says he will stay away from betting on this fight because it could get weird fast, but ultimately picks Vieira as the better MMA fighter and grappler.

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Vieira over Eric McConico. He is very low on McConico, citing low volume, poor chin, and susceptibility to takedowns. He believes Vieira will easily take him down and submit him in the first round, calling it Vieira's easiest fight in years.

Connor agrees that Vieira should win easily, calling McConico a 'house gatekeeper' who doesn't belong in the UFC. He points out that McConico has no technical ability and fights scared, while Vieira has the strength and grappling to finish him. Connor also notes that the betting line is accurate and there's no edge.

James picks Vieira, believing his elite grappling will overwhelm McConico. He notes McConico's struggles on bottom and predicts a first-round submission via arm triangle.

Vieira is a high-level BJJ black belt who has improved his striking, but he is 36 and has a questionable gas tank. McConico is well-rounded but makes mistakes on the feet that will allow Vieira to get takedowns. Vieira should eventually get the fight to the ground and find a submission, but the -225 price is steep.

Zane believes Rodolfo Vieira should easily win this fight, as Eric McConico is a poor fighter with no future in the UFC. He notes that Vieira has a massive strength advantage and should be able to take McConico down and submit him, similar to his win over Anthony Hernandez. Zane emphasizes that McConico lacks technical ability, assertiveness, and has never beaten a quality opponent.

Angelo confidently picks Jackson McVey, criticizing Sedriques Dumas for being a poor fighter with more court cases than wins. He notes that Dumas's wrestling is horrific and he doesn't have big one-punch knockout power, and has seen Dumas look like he's quitting. Angelo expects McVey to move forward, throw a bunch of hands, and win the fight. He says he'll be rooting for McVey big time.

Big Brady picks Sedriques Dumas (referred to as Jack Marshman) over Jackson McVey (referred to as Sedriques Dumas). He criticizes Dumas's tendency to quit under adversity and tap to submissions easily. He believes Marshman's clinch work and opportunistic submission game will lead to a first-round submission.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking McVey due to Dumas's lack of skill and recent poor performances. He notes that Dumas has zero footwork, bad form, and corners himself, while McVey has aggression and a clear game plan. Connor also mentions that Dumas's personal issues likely haven't helped his training.

The host thinks Dumas is a tempting bet because McVey has terrible takedown defense and is weak off his back. Dumas' grappling, while not elite, should be enough to exploit McVey's weaknesses. He believes the odds are wrong and Dumas should be favored. However, he warns about Dumas' bad fight IQ and face tattoos, making it a risky bet.

James picks McVey, citing Dumas' mental instability and poor fight IQ. He expects McVey's pressure and clinch work to lead to a submission finish, possibly a guillotine in round one.

McVey has a strong submission game and a lanky frame, but he has struggled in the UFC with two losses. Dumas has been inconsistent and has had legal issues, but he has grappling ability. McVey should overwhelm Dumas with aggression and find a submission, but the fight is low-level and hard to have confidence in.

Zane picks McVey because Dumas is aimless, has zero footwork, bad striking form, and poor positioning. He notes that McVey has directionality and aggression, and if he comes out like he did against Zach Reese, Dumas will fold. However, Zane acknowledges that McVey is a poor athlete and the fight is terrible overall.

Angelo is very confident in Michelle Montague, calling her a spectacular grappler with world-level wrestling and jiu-jitsu experience. He notes that Mayra Bueno Silva is on a four-fight losing streak and has poor wrestling, making it hard for her to get the fight to the ground. He expects Montague to control where the fight goes and win a decision without being in any trouble.

Big Brady picks Mayra Bueno Silva (referred to as Michelle Waterson) over Marina Rodriguez Silva. He criticizes Marina's fight IQ and notes she is on a losing streak. He believes Waterson's wrestling and ground-and-pound will be too much, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.

Connor picks Montague because Bueno Silva appears depressed and has been figured out by better fighters. He notes that Montague is aggressive, confident, and young in her career, and that Silva's recent losses have shown she doesn't know how to learn. However, Connor acknowledges that Silva has been beaten by a much higher class of fighter and that Montague is not at that level, making this a risky pick.

The host sees this as a classic striker vs grappler matchup where Silva has a massive advantage on the feet and Montague on the ground. He doubts Montague's ability to get the fight down due to her poor offensive wrestling and Silva's good takedown defense in the clinch. He says it's an IQ test: Montague is unbetable, so Silva is the only value play, but she is weak off her back. He prefers live betting and notes the fight likely goes to decision.

James picks Montague, believing she will dominate with takedowns and ground and pound, similar to Jasmine Jasudavicius' win over Silva. He predicts a TKO stoppage due to ground and pound, though Silva's toughness may extend the fight.

Montague is a strong grappler with good top control and submission threat, but her striking is robotic and she can be wobbled. Bueno Silva has submission skills off her back and could threaten with submissions, but she has been struggling and has a poor gas tank. Montague's size and strength should allow her to grind out a decision, but the chalk is hard to trust.

Zane picks Bueno Silva despite her recent losing streak, because he believes Montague is not skilled enough to capitalize on Silva's weaknesses. He notes that Silva has power, aggression, and dynamic submissions, and that Montague's grappling is not at a level to control her. Zane also points out that Silva's losses came against a much better class of fighter than Montague.

Big Brady picks Jafel Filho over Cody Durden. He highlights Durden's struggles with grappling and submission defense, noting he has been submitted five times. He is impressed by Filho's performance against Clayton Carpenter, where he got a first-round Kimura. He predicts Filho will take Durden down and submit him in the first round.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Filho easily. He notes that Durden is on a terrible losing streak, has been finished repeatedly, and his only recent win is over a retired fighter. Connor also points out that Filho is a strong wrestler and submission artist, and that Durden's short notice makes the line even more justified.

The host thinks the odds are very wide and that Durden can cause Filho problems due to his scrambly wrestling and Filho's weakness off his back. However, Durden's terrible cardio is a major risk. He says it's an IQ test: impossible to bet Filho, so if you must bet, take Durden. He prefers live betting and will bet Durden +3.5 and over 1.5 rounds.

James picks Filho, expecting him to exploit Durden's grappling weakness with a submission win. He notes Filho's elite jiu-jitsu and early strength, predicting a first-round submission.

Zane picks Filho confidently, noting that Durden has lost four in a row and six of his last seven, and is getting crushed in most losses. He points out that Durden's confidence is gone after being knocked out, and that Filho is a strong submission artist with good top control. Zane also mentions that Filho is moving up from flyweight, which should make him even stronger.

Big Brady picks Francis Marshall over Lucas Brennan. He notes the fight was added on short notice and he hasn't researched Brennan much, but he believes Marshall is the real deal and training at American Top Team. He expects Marshall to win easily, likely by decision.

Connor picks Marshall as well, but is more skeptical of the wide line. He notes that Brennan is a legitimate BJJ specialist with a funky grappling game, and that Marshall is a high-motor scrambler who gives up opportunities. However, Connor still favors Marshall because Brennan's athleticism is lacking and his striking is too deliberate.

The host is confident Marshall will win easily due to a massive skill gap, but he won't bet at these steep odds. He notes Brennan is low-level with no power, average striking, bad takedown defense, and weak off his back. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds is interesting because Marshall is aggressive and likely to finish a lower-level opponent.

Zane picks Marshall because he believes Brennan is not athletic enough and his striking is too mechanical. He notes that Marshall has a high motor, good wrestling, and will barnstorm Brennan if he smells weakness. Zane also points out that Brennan's best wins are over lower-level competition and that Marshall's losses have come against specific types of fighters that Brennan doesn't match.

Angelo leans on Max Griffin despite his age, citing Griffin's experience and toughness. He notes that Victor Valenzuela has not fought anyone good and was dropped three times in his last Apex fight. Angelo believes Griffin will fire back and potentially work in a takedown, though he admits uncertainty about Valenzuela's takedown defense. He rates his confidence at 51% for Griffin, calling it a 'nice little dog' but says he probably won't bet on it.

Connor picks Griffin because he believes Griffin hasn't fallen off and can out-slick Valenzuela. He notes that Griffin has a history of beating non-elite fighters and that Valenzuela is a one-note brawler. Connor also points out that Griffin can use movement, clinch, and takedowns to frustrate Valenzuela, similar to his game plan against Mike Perry.

James states he has not done tape on Valenzuela due to the fight being scheduled recently, so he cannot give a prediction.

Valenzuela is a powerful pocket striker with good finishing ability, catching Griffin at the right time as Griffin is on a two-fight losing streak and showing his age. Griffin may start fast but will slow down, allowing Valenzuela to walk him down and land big shots. Expect a knockout finish in round two or three.

Zane picks Valenzuela because he thinks Griffin is getting old and his fights against similar 'blockhead' opponents have been razor-thin. He notes that Valenzuela is an aggressive finisher in his prime, while Griffin's game is built on weird martial arts and he tends to wander away from good ideas. Zane also points out that Valenzuela's only recent loss was to a top prospect, Michael Oliveira.

Angelo picks Talita Alencar as the underdog, reasoning that the gap on the ground is very wide and if Alencar can get the fight to the ground, she wins. He acknowledges that Alencar's takedowns are not very good, but notes that Julia Polastri's takedown defense is also poor. He compares the two weaknesses to 'expired milk versus a baby diaper left out in the sun' and chooses the expired milk (Alencar). He mentions Alencar is live for a submission but could get beaten badly if she can't get it to the ground.

Big Brady picks Julia Polastri over Talita Alencar. He questions Alencar's competition, noting her wins came against fighters with poor takedown defense. He believes Polastri will be tougher to take down and has better cardio and clinch work. He predicts Polastri will break Alencar and finish her in the second or third round.

Connor picks Polastri as well, citing her ability to rally and finish fights. He notes that Alencar has a solid takedown game but gasses out, while Polastri gets stronger as the fight goes on. Connor also mentions that Polastri is only 28 and should be hitting her prime, making her a good pick.

The host acknowledges this is a tricky fight due to extreme stylistic advantages: Polastri is a striker with terrible takedown defense and ground game, while Alencar is a grappler with no striking and bad cardio. He says the better bet is Alencar because of the risk-to-reward ratio, but he wouldn't personally bet either pre-fight. He prefers live betting and mentions betting Alencar +3.5 rounds.

James picks Polastri, expecting her to survive early takedowns and come back with a third-round finish as Alencar gasses. He notes Polastri's history of late finishes and Alencar's cardio issues.

Polastri is a Muay Thai specialist with good takedown defense and volume striking. She should be able to stick and move, avoid Alencar's grappling, and land significant damage. Alencar's wild striking and shaky gas tank will be exposed as Polastri picks her apart and eventually gets a TKO in the second or third round.

Zane picks Polastri because she is a natural fighter who comes on strong late in fights, while Alencar tends to fade if she can't get a finish. He notes that Polastri has good takedown defense once she gets going and is a vicious slugger. Zane also points out that Alencar's striking is power-based and she struggles when shut down early.