Cody Durden

Big Brady picks Jafel Filho over Cody Durden. He highlights Durden's struggles with grappling and submission defense, noting he has been submitted five times. He is impressed by Filho's performance against Clayton Carpenter, where he got a first-round Kimura. He predicts Filho will take Durden down and submit him in the first round.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Filho easily. He notes that Durden is on a terrible losing streak, has been finished repeatedly, and his only recent win is over a retired fighter. Connor also points out that Filho is a strong wrestler and submission artist, and that Durden's short notice makes the line even more justified.

The host thinks the odds are very wide and that Durden can cause Filho problems due to his scrambly wrestling and Filho's weakness off his back. However, Durden's terrible cardio is a major risk. He says it's an IQ test: impossible to bet Filho, so if you must bet, take Durden. He prefers live betting and will bet Durden +3.5 and over 1.5 rounds.

James picks Filho, expecting him to exploit Durden's grappling weakness with a submission win. He notes Filho's elite jiu-jitsu and early strength, predicting a first-round submission.

Angelo says Cody Durden used to be a dog but is now a shell of himself, while Nyamjargal is a powerful striker who can be hit but is durable. He notes that Carlos Hernandez took down Nyamjargal four times but got dropped, and Carlos is more durable than Cody. He picks Nyamjargal to win.

Big Brady picks Nyamjargal Tumendemberel over Cody Durden. He acknowledges Durden is likely more skilled but worries about his durability after taking massive damage in recent fights. Durden has been finished five times by submission and two by KO, and his chin appears to be fading. Tumendemberel has good front chokes and opportunistic submissions. Brady predicts Durden will look good early, get hurt, shoot for a takedown, and get submitted in the second round.

Cody picks Tumendemberel, citing Durden's cardio issues and hittability. He notes that Tumendemberel only needs to land one shot. He expects a late knockout.

Connor picks Durden because he believes Durden's relentless aggression will overwhelm Tumendemberel, who lacks a clean answer for pressure. He notes that Tumendemberel is a dangerous puncher but has been taken down easily in the past. Durden's jab and combination punching should allow him to initiate exchanges effectively.

Daniel Vreeland picks his friend Cody Durden, acknowledging bias but providing reasoning. He believes Durden's experience against higher-level competition will be key, and that Durden will avoid getting caught early. Vreeland notes that Durden's career is on the line and expects him to give a veteran lesson.

James picks Cody Durden as an underdog, believing the fight is close to 50/50 and Durden is the value side. He notes Durden's superior competition and skills, but acknowledges his poor chin and tendency to get hurt. James thinks Durden can dominate if he avoids getting knocked out, but admits it's a tough call due to Durden's durability issues.

Tumendemberel has shown improved defensive grappling and durability. He can stop Durden's wrestling and threaten with submissions or power shots. Durden's recent losses show his ceiling. The under 2.5 rounds is appealing as both have finishing ability.

Paul picks Tumendemberel, citing Durden's tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Tumendemberel's durability and power. He expects to bet live after Durden wins the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, despite a personal beef. He believes Durden's grappling and pressure will be too much for Tumendemberel, who lacks experience. He expects Durden to win by decision, noting his toughness and volume.

Angelo picks Allan Nascimento, but is hesitant. He notes Nascimento's jiu-jitsu is excellent but his takedowns are poor, so he relies on being taken down to sweep. He thinks Cody Durden's wrestling and cardio have declined, and he gets tired. However, he worries that if Durden doesn't wrestle, Nascimento won't finish on the feet, leading to a low-scoring fight. He may avoid it in DFS.

Big Brady picks Allan Nascimento, noting Cody Durden is on short notice, 34 years old, and has taken a ton of damage in recent fights. He highlights Nascimento's size, length, and excellent grappling. He believes once the fight hits the ground, Nascimento will have a huge advantage and predicts a second-round submission.

Connor also picks Nascimento, noting that Durden is super vulnerable on defense and aggressive to a fault. He thinks Nascimento's submission game is dangerous enough to catch Durden, but he wouldn't be surprised if Durden rides out a win on top. He mentions Durden's bigger signature wins but still leans Nascimento.

Nascimento's BJJ will get Durden into bad spots and he will eventually pull off a submission. The host's favorite spot is the under 2.5 rounds at even money.

The MMA Guru picks Allan Nascimento, noting his size advantage at catchweight and superior grappling. He compares Nascimento's dominant grappling against Jafel Filho to Cody Durden's struggles against Jake Hadley. He worries about Durden taking the fight on short notice and predicts Nascimento wins by decision or submission in the second or third round.

Angelo leans Cody Durden because he is battle-tested and relentless with takedowns. He notes that Jose has good takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler as determined as Cody. He acknowledges Cody's suspect chin but believes his pressure will be key.

Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa by second-round submission. He likes Ochoa's striking and sneaky submission game, and notes that Cody Durden has been taking damage and has four submission losses. He believes Ochoa is dangerous everywhere and will either knock out Durden or snatch a submission.

Ochoa's superior striking and aggressive BJJ will overwhelm Durden. He will eventually secure a submission and force the tap.

Angelo picks Cody Durden as a dog, citing Durden's relentless pressure wrestling and cardio as key factors. He believes Durden's takedowns will frustrate Joshua Van and deplete his confidence. Angelo notes both fighters are chinny but expects Durden to focus on winning rather than brawling. He is monitoring the line movement and may bet if the odds widen further.

Cody picks Van but expects a tough first round. He notes Durden's wrestling and fast starts, but thinks Van's cardio and volume will take over in later rounds. He suggests live betting Van after the first round.

Connor picks Durden, though he hates to do it. He notes that Durden starts fast and pressures aggressively, which could overwhelm Van, who tends to start slow and build into fights. Connor points out that Van has been taking too much damage recently and is fighting too frequently, which raises concerns about his durability. He also mentions that Durden's pace and wrestling could be a problem for Van, who has shown vulnerability early in fights.

Daniel admits bias as Durden's friend but provides analysis: he believes Durden's well-rounded attack and ability to exploit Van's uncomfortable ranges will lead to a win. He expects Durden to mix takedowns and striking effectively.

Van successfully bounced back from his knockout loss to Charles Johnson by defeating Edgar Chairez. He will take that momentum, showcase improved takedown defense, keep the fight standing, and eventually catch Durden slipping to get a knockout victory.

Paul picks Durden as an underdog, citing his wrestling and fast starts. He notes Van's high fight frequency and potential wear. He thinks Durden can win the first two rounds and hold on, but acknowledges the risk.

The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, citing Van's tendency to get rocked on the feet and Durden's improved hands and grappling. He thinks Durden's size and takedowns will be too much for Van, and that once Durden gets a lead he is hard to catch. He predicts a 29-28 decision based on the first two rounds.

Angelo picks Cody Durden (referred to as Alexandre Costa) because he is a solid striker with real power, good takedown defense, and durability, while Matt Schnell has been in too many wars and his chin is failing. He believes Costa will blast Schnell's legs and crack him in the head, leading to a knockout. He notes that Schnell is not dangerous enough to put Costa away.

Big Brady picks Cody Durden to win by knockout. He notes Durden is stepping in on short notice but looked career-best in his last fight before getting caught. Brady believes Durden's striking will be the difference and that he just needs to land one clean shot. He warns about Schnell's dangerous grappling but thinks Durden will avoid the ground and finish the fight inside the distance.

Cody picks Schnell, arguing that Durden's short notice, weight cut issues, and lack of corner are major red flags. He notes Schnell's superior experience and cardio, but admits Durden's power and aggression could end it early. He sees value at +250 but is not highly confident.

Daniel is biased as a friend of Durden, but he believes Durden's power and Schnell's weak chin will be the deciding factor. He acknowledges Schnell is well-rounded and technical, but thinks Durden will eventually land a knockout. He notes that Schnell has been knocked out in recent fights and that Durden is aware of Schnell's chin. Despite the short notice, Daniel is confident Durden will get the win.

Paul is intrigued by Schnell at +250, noting Durden is taking the fight on a week's notice, moving up to 135 lbs, and may not have a coach. He acknowledges Schnell's chin issues but believes his experience and cardio advantage could pay off if he survives early. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and leans Schnell.

Angelo picks Cody Durden because his aggressive wrestling pace will be too much for Bruno Silva, leading to a close decision. He notes that Silva has power and could land a knockout, but Durden's chin is a concern. He does not mention a bet, but is confident in the pick.

Cody picks Bruno Silva, highlighting his striking advantage and the fact that he accepted the fight before Durden, indicating confidence from training together. He notes Silva's defensive wrestling is solid and that Durden will struggle to take him down. He also mentions Silva's submission win over Tyson Nam as impressive.

Daniel Vreeland picks his friend Cody Durden, citing Durden's superior wrestling, volume, and training with Pantoja. He acknowledges Bruno's explosive power and opportunistic submissions but believes Durden will outwork him everywhere. Vreeland warns against underestimating Durden's standup and submission defense.

Silva is a +100 underdog. He has a slick boxing approach and BJJ black belt, and his takedown defense and ability to work back to his feet should frustrate Durden. Durden will put himself in danger with his wrestling, and Silva can capitalize with a submission or TKO. Silva's inactivity (16 months) is a concern, but his skills should be enough to get the win.

Paul also picks Bruno Silva, agreeing with Cody's points about Silva's striking and the familiarity from training. He thinks Silva has an advantage on the feet and that Durden will be in trouble if he tries to grapple. He also notes the submission prop as a possibility.

Angelo picks Cody Durden as an underdog, citing his pressure wrestling and recent momentum. He notes that both are pressure wrestlers but gives Durden an edge in takedown defense. He plans to monitor line movement before betting.

Big Brady picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win by second-round submission, specifically a guillotine. He notes Durden's tendency to make mistakes on the mat (subbed 3 times in career) and Ulanbekov's nasty guillotine. Brady believes Ulanbekov will get the better of striking exchanges, forcing Durden to wrestle and expose his neck. He recalls Ulanbekov nearly submitting Allan Nascimento, who is a much better grappler than Durden.

Cody picks Durden as an underdog, citing Ulanbekov's age (33), injury history (six fight pullouts), and questionable cardio. He notes that Ulanbekov has struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down by lesser opponents. Cody believes Durden's chain wrestling and improved cardio will allow him to outwork Ulanbekov, especially in a three-round fight. He expects a close decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks Cody Durden as his dog, stating that Durden will out-wrestle Tagir Ulanbekov and win a decision. He believes Durden will do enough grappling to secure the win.

Lucrative James has the least read on this fight. He leans toward Tagir Ulanbekov winning a split decision, but he is not confident. He notes that both fighters have finishing upside but the over 2.5 rounds is at -235, which he considers a horrific price. He is passing on betting this fight.

The host picks Ulanbekov but is not happy with the minus 170 line. He thinks Ulanbekov's best path to victory is via submission, capitalizing on a mistake from Durden. He notes that Durden often shoots desperation takedowns and could get caught in a guillotine. He acknowledges Durden could win minutes with his striking and pressure, but expects Ulanbekov to find a submission. He suggests a small play on the submission prop if the odds are favorable.

Paul picks Ulanbekov, stating that Durden's wrestling-heavy style will be difficult against Ulanbekov's grappling. He notes that Ulanbekov is from the Khabib camp and has solid takedown defense. Paul believes Ulanbekov's skills will be too much for Durden, who relies on wrestling but may struggle against a fellow grappler.

Angelo leans toward Cody Durden for the upset, despite Jake Hadley being a near 2-1 favorite. He notes Durden's heavy hands and relentless wrestling pace, but acknowledges Hadley is the better overall fighter with dangerous BJJ. He points out that Hadley has been taken down in almost every fight and given up control time. Angelo plans to wait for line movement and may bet Durden if he becomes a bigger underdog, comparing it to missing out on CJ Vergara.

Big Brady is confident in Hadley, citing his improved striking, volume, and BJJ black belt. He notes Durden has been submitted three times (twice in UFC) and is taking this fight on short notice. He expects Hadley to break Durden and submit him in the second round, possibly after Durden makes a mistake on the mat.

Cody picks Hadley, citing his superior boxing, power, and opportunistic submission game. He notes Durden's short notice and tendency to make mistakes leading to submissions. He believes Hadley can survive Durden's wrestling early and take over in later rounds. He also likes Hadley by submission at +225.

Daniel Levi picks Cody Durden, citing his relentless wrestling, pace, and improvements training with champion Alexandre Pantoja. He notes that Durden's balls-to-the-wall style can leave openings for submissions, but believes if Durden avoids those, his path to victory is clear via wrestling and pressure. Levi acknowledges Hadley's opportunistic finishing ability but thinks Durden's grappling and cardio will overwhelm Hadley over three rounds. He is biased as Durden's friend but still makes a strong case.

James is confident Jake Hadley wins, either by submission or on the feet. He notes Hadley's jiu-jitsu is elite and can counteract Durden's wrestling, and that Durden has been submitted before. He also favors Hadley in striking, matching power. He expects Durden to shoot takedowns and put himself in bad positions.

Hadley is the better striker and has good defensive grappling to counter Durden's wrestling. Durden is fragile against resistance. I like the under 2.5 rounds more than the moneyline because Hadley is likely to finish Durden, though there's a chance Durden grinds out a decision. I'm going with Hadley by finish under 2.5 rounds.

Paul leans towards Durden as an underdog, citing his wrestling and ability to control the fight. He notes Hadley's takedown defense issues and believes Durden can grind out a decision. However, he is not confident and sees it as a live bet opportunity.

Cody picks Durden, having taken him at +170 earlier. He believes Durden's wrestling and pressure will be effective against Johnson, who gives up takedowns. He notes that Johnson's cardio may be compromised due to fighting frequently, and that Durden can grind out a win. He thinks the current +120 is fair but not great value.

Connor also leans Johnson, citing Johnson's ability to adjust and finish strong, as seen against Osborne. He notes that Durden's takedowns may not work against Johnson's excellent takedown defense, and without that threat, Durden's boxing is limited. Connor sees a pattern where Johnson loses round one but comes back to win rounds two and three.

Paul picks Johnson but is hesitant, acknowledging that Durden's wrestling could be a problem. He notes Johnson's superior striking and volume, and hopes judges favor damage over control time. However, he is concerned about Johnson's activity level and potential fatigue, and admits he might get burned.

Big Brady picks Carlos Mota to win by decision. He notes that Mota is the better striker with good takedown defense and get-up game, while Durden's path to victory relies on wrestling for three rounds, which Brady doubts he can sustain. He mentions that Mota's cardio is typically good, though he slowed in the Charles Johnson fight. Brady acknowledges the line has flipped and that Durden might be slept on, but he is impressed with Mota's skills.

Cody picks Carlos Mota, liking his striking and footwork. He questions Mota's grappling but believes Mota's stand-up will be enough. Cody notes that Cody Durden tends to fatigue in later rounds and is hittable. He mentions Mota by knockout as a possible attack, but is cautious due to Mota taking the fight on short notice.

Connor leans toward Mota, agreeing with Zane that Durden's aggressive style could set him up for Mota's counters. He notes that Durden has a good jab but tends to throw himself into his strikes, which could lead to getting hit hard. Connor also mentions that Mota is a fun fighter with good trigger counters, and that Durden's tendency to burn out could be a factor.

Daniel Levi picks Cody Durden, citing his toughness, durability, and ability to break opponents down the stretch. He acknowledges Mota's devastating power and early-round danger, but believes if Durden survives the first round, he will break Mota. He is looking to bet Durden at plus odds and considers it a potential next play.

Jacob picks Cody Durden as the safe play due to his wrestling, but he is hesitant because Carlos Mota is a live dog on short notice. He notes that if Durden stands and trades, he could be in trouble, and Mota has good striking. Jacob emphasizes that the value may be on Mota and suggests inside the distance/decision no action.

Mota is the better striker and a BJJ black belt, which should neutralize Durden's grappling. Despite short notice, Mota is always ready and has been waiting for this UFC opportunity. Durden is durable but Mota's striking should find a knockout blow. The line movement from +125 to -170 indicates sharp money on Mota.

Paul picks Carlos Mota, citing his LFA title fight experience and solid skills. He notes Durden's tendency to gas and his weight cut struggles. Paul says he will roll with Mota but advises watching weigh-ins before betting significant money.

The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden over Carlos Mota, going against the majority. He believes Durden's longer training camp and preparation for a wild opponent like Clayton Rodriguez will help him handle Mota's early chaos. He expects Durden to take over in later rounds and win by 29-28 decision, as Mota is stepping in on short notice and may have octagon jitters.

Angelo picks Cody Durden, finding the line move bizarre. He expects Durden to come forward with big shots and work his takedowns, noting that if Montel Jackson could take JP Buys down four times, Durden can too. He acknowledges Durden tends to fade but believes his chain wrestling and pressure will be enough. He has a moneyline bet on Durden.

Big Brady picks Cody Durden to win by second-round knockout, but expresses low confidence. He notes that both fighters have poor durability and cardio, but favors Durden's striking power and durability over JP Buys's chin (Buys has been knocked down 7-8 times in UFC). He acknowledges Buys's submission threat early, but believes Durden's better cardio and power will lead to a finish in the second round. He calls it a tough fight to call.

Cody likes Buys, citing his youth, wrestling credentials, and better striking. He notes Durden's poor cardio and that Buys will put a pace on him. He thinks Buys can win by submission or decision.

Paul agrees after Cody's reasoning, and will bet Buys. He notes Durden's pattern of wins and losses but thinks Buys has the edge.

Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev but is nervous about betting on him. He acknowledges Mokaev's superior wrestling and amateur experience, but notes that he is only 21 with 5 pro fights, making his UFC debut against a tough wrestler in Cody Durden. He thinks Mokaev wins but advises against making him a parlay piece.

Big Brady picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by decision. He is impressed with Mokaev's wrestling, cardio, and control, noting he can go 15 minutes without slowing. Brady believes Mokaev will tire out Cody Durden, who has a poor gas tank, and take him down repeatedly. He thinks the fight will be competitive early but Mokaev's pace will be the difference.

Cody picks Durden as a dog, citing Mokaev's youth and lack of strength. He thinks Durden's wrestling and man strength could be enough, and that Mokaev's cardio might not hold up. He acknowledges Durden's cardio issues but thinks he can win the first two rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Cody Durden as a dog, believing Mokaev's hype is overblown and that this is his first real fight. He notes Durden has been competitive in all his UFC fights, including a draw with Chris Gutierrez on short notice and a near-win over Jimmy Flick. Levi questions Mokaev's competition and thinks Durden's wrestling and toughness will test him. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and is not betting, but picks Durden to win.

Mokaev is a highly touted prospect with a 23-0 amateur and 5-0 pro record, but the hype may be too much at -350. His jiu-jitsu is slightly slicker than Durden's, which should allow him to control transitions and scrambles. However, red flags from his last fight against Hussein show he can slow down in the second round. Durden is a grizzled veteran with good wrestling, but Mokaev's grappling should get the last laugh. I'm picking Mokaev to win via decision, but I'm not confident in the line.

Paul picks Durden as a PRP dog, citing Mokaev's youth and lack of strength. He thinks Durden's wrestling and experience could be a factor, and that Mokaev's hype might be premature. He acknowledges the risk but likes the value.

Angelo picks Aoriqileng, citing his better striking and footwork, but is nervous about Cody Durden's relentless takedown attempts. He notes Aoriqileng's takedown defense is listed at 100% but lacks data. He prefers a prop bet: Aoriqileng to win at least one round (+3.5) at -150, which he is monitoring for line movement. He expects Aoriqileng to win the fight but is not confident enough for a straight moneyline bet.

Big Brady picks Aoriqileng (Archie Long) as an underdog at +145. He notes that Aoriqileng impressed in his UFC debut despite a loss, showing good striking and takedown ability. He believes Aoriqileng has the cardio and striking advantage over Cody Durden, and predicts a second or third round knockout. He spent two hours breaking down this fight and favors Aoriqileng's offensive wrestling and ability to cut off the cage.

Cody picks the underdog Aoriqileng (Richie Lang). He is not sold on Durden's wrestling or striking, noting that Durden has a limited takedown game and poor cardio. He thinks Aoriqileng is the better striker, has better cardio, and is durable. He expects a close fight but leans towards the dog.

Daniel Levi picks Cody Durden, emphasizing the need to mix takedowns and clinch to slow down Aoriqileng. He notes that Durden went to a draw with Chris Gutierrez on short notice, showing his caliber. He warns against banging too long with Aoriqileng, who is durable and keeps walking forward. Levi believes Durden's wrestling and volume will earn him a decision.

Lock thinks Durden's wrestling will be too much for Aoriqileng. He notes Aoriqileng has been taken down by lesser competition, so Durden should have success. He sees Durden doing good work from top position and possibly getting a finish in the second round. Lock likes Durden inside the distance at +335.

Paul does not make a clear pick for the winner. He mentions he has bets on under 2.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision, but does not state a side on the moneyline.

Big Brady picks Jimmy Flick over Cody Durden, citing Durden's double weight cut as a concern and his tendency to go for takedowns, which plays into Flick's submission game. He notes Flick's questionable chin but believes the fight will hit the mat, where Flick has the advantage. Brady predicts a first-round submission.

The host picks Flick but is very hesitant, calling it a toss-up. He believes Flick's submission threat will be key if he can initiate grappling, but notes Durden's wrestling background and power. He recommends the fight doesn't go to decision prop as the best play.