UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura

Angelo notes that Tuivasa's chin is gone after three consecutive knockout losses to elite heavyweights, and his takedown defense is only 54%. Tybura is a durable grinder who uses strikes to set up takedowns and will pound on opponents once on top. He thinks Tybura can rush Tuivasa against the cage and grind through takedowns. He is watching the line movement, hoping to get Tybura at +120 or +130 as the fan favorite gets action.

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round knockout. He believes Tuivasa's power and striking advantage will be too much for Tybura, who lacks power and has been knocked out before. He notes the risk if the fight goes long and Tybura gets on top, but expects Tuivasa to land first.

Cody leans toward Tai Tuivasa, citing his early explosiveness and power as likely too much for Tybura, who has been knocked out quickly in recent fights. He notes Tybura's wrestling threat but believes Tuivasa can stuff early takedowns and land a knockout before the fight gets deep. He acknowledges the line is even money and both have a chance, but Tuivasa's youth and power give him the edge.

Lucrative James is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that stylistically Tai Tuivasa could knock out Tybura, but he is concerned about Tuivasa's mental state, recent three-fight losing streak, and a knee injury three months prior. He also notes Tybura's reliability and grinding style, comparing it to the Blaydes fight. He ultimately decides he likely won't bet on this fight but might play Tuivasa KO in round 1 or 2 or Tybura by decision.

The host notes Tuivasa is on a losing streak and heavily reliant on knockout power, but when facing cleaner, crisper opponents he often comes up short. He expects Tybura to have a cleaner all-around game, roughing up Tuivasa in the clinch, dragging him to the floor, and possibly opening up a submission. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Tybura can avoid it due to Tuivasa's telegraphing. He compares Tybura's ability to take big shots from past opponents and still win, predicting Tybura dictates the fight and grinds out a decision or an arm triangle choke.

Paul also picks Tai Tuivasa by knockout, agreeing with Cody that Tybura's wrestling is not likely to be effective early when Tuivasa is fresh. He notes that Tybura will have to eat shots to close distance and that the small cage helps Tuivasa. He acknowledges the unpredictability of heavyweights but sees this as a decent matchup for Tuivasa to get back on track.

The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa by TKO in round one or two. He believes Tuivasa's calf kicks will be effective against Tybura, who lacks the low kick defense of Volkov. He notes Tuivasa's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power punching, especially uppercuts and hooks. He thinks Tybura is hittable and Tuivasa will find his chin, as he did against Ciryl Gane.

Angelo is a big fan of Battle, noting his incredible improvement every fight. He worries that Battle needs to be the better wrestler and may not be able to take Loosa down, and he doesn't see Battle winning a striking match. However, he has blind faith in Battle's rapid improvement and thinks the latest version of Battle, with added improvements, will win. He is monitoring the line before betting.

Big Brady picks Ange Loosa to win by decision as an upset. He thinks Loosa's wrestling and takedown defense will be key, as Battle has poor takedown defense. He expects a close, competitive fight but favors Loosa's ability to mix in takedowns.

Cody sides with the underdog Ange Loosa, citing Bryan Battle's suspect takedown defense (45% overall) and Loosa's improved wrestling. He notes Battle is a good counter puncher but lacks physical strength and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Loosa has shown volume striking and takedowns in recent fights, which should sway rounds. He sees this as close to 50/50 and likes the plus money.

Lucrative James believes Bryan Battle is the much better fighter overall. He notes that Ange Loosa is durable but lacks technique and grappling strength, and that Battle can scramble if taken down. He sees Battle winning via finish, possibly by submission or head kick, and mentions that Loosa's path to victory is limited to a knockout or three rounds of grappling, which he doubts Loosa has the gas tank for.

The host admits this is the fight he is least confident in picking. He sides with Loosa's explosive power striking and notes that Battle hasn't utilized the style that made him successful at 185 lbs, possibly due to the weight cut to 170. He expects Loosa to be on the front foot, using power punches to keep Battle defensive, and even try grappling where he can hold Battle down. He acknowledges Battle's submission threats but believes Loosa wins on the scorecards.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Battle's low volume and poor takedown defense. He points out that Loosa has durability and the plus 155 line offers value, as he sees the fight closer to 50/50. He mentions Loosa by decision at +275 as an interesting prop.

The Guru picks Bryan Battle, noting his size, power, and grappling. He criticizes Loosa for getting hurt easily and nearly finished in fights. He believes Battle is a level above and will either TKO or outpoint Loosa. He mentions Battle's recent grappling performances against AJ Fletcher.

Angelo calls this his most confident pick on the card. Nzechukwu is long, powerful, has solid takedown defense, and is never out of a fight, though he can be gun-shy. Saint Preux is 40, has no chin, and is frustratingly low-volume, rarely letting his hands go. Angelo sees no path to victory for Saint Preux outside a Hail Mary bomb, which is unlikely given his low output. He thinks Nzechukwu will win easily.

Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu to win by first-round knockout. He believes OSP is past his prime and not motivated, while Nzechukwu is a big favorite for a reason. He expects a quick finish despite Nzechukwu's history of weird outcomes.

Cody is confident in Kennedy Nzechukwu, believing OSP is completely washed and on his way out. He details OSP's decline: missing weight, looking flat, and being knocked out in recent fights. He acknowledges Kennedy's chin issues but thinks OSP lacks the power to exploit them. He warns against the minus 500 line but still picks Kennedy.

Lucrative James sees Kennedy Nzechukwu as a massive favorite and expects him to finish the fight. He notes that OSP has looked washed recently, with poor cardio and chin, and that Kennedy can knock him out on the feet, with elbows, or in the clinch. He dismisses OSP's chances, stating that the only way OSP wins is if Kennedy makes a huge mistake.

The host notes that Saint Preux is nearing 41 and fighting a young, hungry fighter in Nzechukwu, who should have speed and power advantages. He expects Nzechukwu to light up Saint Preux early and get a TKO, but mentions that the -500 or -700 odds are too much given the weight class and Saint Preux's experience. He still thinks the under 1.5 rounds should come through easily.

Paul also picks Kennedy, echoing that OSP is done. He notes Kennedy's physical advantages (size, speed, reach) and OSP's inability to take punches anymore. He calls it an 'apple pie situation' where fading OSP is tempting but warns about Kennedy's own flaws. He still expects Kennedy to win.

The Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu by TKO, citing OSP's age (40) and recent KO loss to Philipe Lins. He notes Nzechukwu is chinny but has youth and momentum. He dismisses OSP's win over Shogun as controversial and believes Nzechukwu will get the finish.

Angelo is surprised Rodriguez is an underdog but thinks Dulgarian is a legit prospect with real wrestling and good striking. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Raul Rosas Jr., noting that Rosas mauled Rodriguez in the first round before gassing. He believes Dulgarian has better cardio and fight IQ, and will get the job done. He sees this as a true test of Dulgarian's potential.

Big Brady picks Isaac Dulgarian to win by first-round TKO. He is impressed by Dulgarian's wrestling and ground-and-pound, and thinks he can take Rodriguez down and finish him early. He notes Rodriguez's takedown defense is not elite and Dulgarian's pace may be too much.

Cody picks Isaac Dulgarian, despite Rodriguez being a legitimate prospect. He highlights Dulgarian's elite wrestling pedigree (D2 champion, three-time state champ in all styles) and his first-round finishing streak. He notes Rodriguez has missed weight twice and is moving up to 145, which could be a disadvantage against a strong wrestler. He believes Dulgarian's pace and wrestling will be too much.

Lucrative James picks Christian Rodriguez despite acknowledging Dulgarian's early-round dominance and wrestling advantage. He believes Rodriguez will lose round one but come back in rounds two and three due to better cardio, scrambling ability, and superior striking. He also thinks Rodriguez has submission opportunities and trusts him to weather the storm, as he has beaten hyped prospects before.

The host considers Rodriguez one of the better prospects but notes he struggled to make 135 lbs and is now fighting at 145 lbs. He expects Rodriguez to give up some takedowns early but provide the most resistance Dulgarian has faced, allowing Rodriguez to work back to his feet and use his superior striking. As Dulgarian slows down, Rodriguez will clamp onto a submission after a poor takedown attempt.

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Dulgarian trains at altitude in Colorado, which should improve his cardio. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down and outmuscled early in fights, and Dulgarian is not the kind of opponent you want to face when moving up. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

The Guru picks Isaac Dulgarian, emphasizing his NCAA Division 2 wrestling credentials and physicality. He criticizes Rodriguez for missing weight multiple times and having size advantages over past opponents. He believes Dulgarian's wrestling will be a level above Rodriguez's previous opponents, and that he will dominate with takedowns and ground control. He notes Rodriguez has good survivability but doubts he can overcome Dulgarian's pressure.

Angelo acknowledges Kianzad has a big striking advantage with her boxing, but she was unable to get up off the bottom in her last fight against Ketlen Vieira. Chiasson has added grappling to her game, taking down Norma Dumont six times and Irene Aldana three times. He thinks Chiasson will get takedowns and hold Kianzad down. He also suggests a plus 3.5 round bet on Kianzad as she might win a round on the feet.

Big Brady picks Macy Chiasson to win by decision. He expects Chiasson's size and physicality to be too much for Kianzad, allowing her to control the fight against the cage and on the mat. He references Kianzad's recent loss to Vieira as a blueprint.

Cody leans toward Macy Chiasson, citing her size, physicality, and grappling advantage. He notes she has choked Kianzad out before and is the better grappler. However, he is wary of the minus 240 line due to Chiasson's weight cut struggles and long layoff. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins before betting.

Lucrative James picks Macy Chiasson to win, likely by submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Chiasson is physically stronger, has better grappling, and finished Kianzad before on The Ultimate Fighter. He also questions whether Kianzad has lost a step and mentions Chiasson's recent performances against tough opponents. He expresses concern about Chiasson's weight cut but still expects her to win.

The host acknowledges Kianzad's striking advantage but believes she will be frustrated by Chiasson's grapple-heavy approach. He notes Chiasson's ability to bully opponents in the clinch and get fights to the ground easily, where she can rough up Kianzad from top position for the majority of the fight and win by decision.

Paul passes on betting this fight, noting Chiasson's weight cut issues and unimpressive recent performances. He mentions the bizarre liver kick loss to Aldana and questions her durability. He does not pick a winner and says it's a pass from a betting perspective.

The Guru picks Macy Chiasson, citing her physicality, power, and improved kicks. He notes she outmuscled Kianzad in their first fight and choked her out. He believes Chiasson has more options in the clinch and at range, and that Kianzad is purely a boxer with a reach disadvantage. He expects Chiasson to win by decision, possibly 30-27 or 29-28.

Angelo notes that Meerschaert is a very good grappler always live for a submission, though he has a questionable chin and poor takedown accuracy. Barberena is a fun brawler who doesn't use his wrestling and has been taken down 18 times in his last three fights. Angelo thinks the more likely outcome is Meerschaert gets a takedown and snatches a submission, but warns he cannot be trusted as a 2-to-1 favorite.

Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert to win by second-round submission. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense and submission losses, and expects Meerschaert to get the fight to the mat and submit him. He is wary of Meerschaert's chin but thinks Barberena's recent form is too poor.

Cody picks Gerald Meerschaert, emphasizing the size advantage. He notes Barberena is undersized at middleweight, having ballooned to 240 lbs and struggled to make 170. He points out Barberena was taken down 13 times in his last fight and lacks the power to hurt Meerschaert. He sees Meerschaert's size and grappling as decisive.

Lucrative James picks Gerald Meerschaert to win by submission, likely in round two or three. He believes Barberena is on a downward trajectory and lacks the power to knock out Meerschaert. He notes that Barberena has a significant grappling disadvantage and that Meerschaert is opportunistic with submissions. He mentions that he won't play the moneyline but might bet on a round prop.

The host is surprised Meerschaert is a big favorite, as he believes Barberena has good enough defensive grappling to deal with Meerschaert's less-than-average wrestling. He notes Barberena has shown improvements in getting back to his feet and letting his hands go, and expects Barberena to have the striking advantage, leading to a knockout in the third round as Meerschaert fails on his grappling attempts.

Paul also picks Meerschaert but with hesitation. He acknowledges Barberena's toughness and grit, but notes Meerschaert's inconsistency and tendency to lose rounds before pulling off a finish. He warns that this could be a 'pie in the sky' situation where Meerschaert's flaws are overlooked. Still, he expects Meerschaert to win due to size.

The Guru picks Gerald Meerschaert by submission in round three. He notes Barberena was outgrappled by Makhmud Muradov, whom Meerschaert submitted. He expects Meerschaert to get dominant position and submit the 'melting vanilla ice cream' Barberena. He mentions Meerschaert's typical third-round finishes.

Angelo is surprised Davis is a 3-to-1 favorite but agrees with the logic. Davis is a fast, athletic striker with real power and excellent wrestling, as shown in his last fight with 14 takedowns over three fights. He thinks Davis can implement the same game plan as Hafa Garcia did against Levy: wrestle and avoid BJJ. He hopes the line tightens to 2-to-1 or 1.5-to-1 before he bets.

Big Brady picks Mike Davis to win by third-round knockout. He believes Davis is better everywhere and should dominate if he shows up healthy. He acknowledges inactivity concerns but thinks Davis' skill advantage will lead to a finish.

Cody is confident in Mike Davis, highlighting his well-rounded skills, nasty leg kicks, and wrestling. He notes Levy relies on wrestling but Davis is the better wrestler and will stuff takedowns. He predicts Davis will out-strike Levy, shatter his lead leg, and win decisively, likely by decision.

Lucrative James leans toward Mike Davis, citing his superior wrestling and striking. He notes that Levy couldn't finish Dano Valdez and that Davis has fought tough competition. However, he expresses concern about Davis's inactivity and potential lack of focus due to streaming, which could lead to an upset. Overall, he sees Davis as the much better fighter.

The host considers Davis the overall better fighter in both striking and grappling, which is what Levy normally relies on. He expects the fight to be slightly competitive early but Davis will pull away late and eventually find a finishing opportunity in the final round, specifically circling the submission prop.

Paul agrees, noting Davis has skills everywhere but has been inactive. He sees Levy as a reasonable matchup and expects Davis to win however he wants, likely by decision. He mentions Davis by decision at +120 as a prop.

The Guru picks Mike Davis by TKO in round one. He praises Davis's striking and grappling, noting his win over Mason Jones has aged well. He criticizes Levy's performances, calling his win over Jairo Valdez unimpressive and his loss to Hakeem Dawodu. He believes Davis is another level on the feet and will be too quick, catching Levy on the jaw.

Angelo argues that Nunes looked worse in her last fight (barely beating a 40-year-old) than Chandler did (losing to a top-five opponent). He thinks Chandler is tough, powerful, and will be giant in this fight. He notes the over 2.5 rounds line is only -120 and expects a decision, as both are tough and Nunes is not a finisher. He may bet on Chandler if she becomes an even bigger dog, and also consider the over.

Big Brady picks Josiane Nunes to win by decision, but is not confident. He notes Nunes' size disadvantage but thinks her striking and power will be enough if she stuffs takedowns. He does not trust either fighter and will not bet on this fight.

Cody picks Chelsea Chandler, citing her size and physicality advantage. He notes Nunes is one-dimensional with an overhand left and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. He expects Chandler to use her ground game and win by decision, but warns about Chandler's weight cut to 135 lbs.

The host sees this as striker vs grappler, with Chandler being much bigger and stronger. He expects Chandler to use her strength to bully Nunes against the cage, drag her to the ground, and assert top pressure to open up a TKO opportunity.

Paul also leans toward Chandler, noting Nunes will be dwarfed. He compares Nunes to a female version of Ilir Latifi, with no neck and a one-dimensional style. He thinks Chandler can press her against the cage and make it ugly, but emphasizes the weigh-ins are important for both fighters.

The Guru picks Josiane Nunes by TKO in round two. He notes Chandler's poor standup, throwing punches with eyes closed, and that Nunes has wicked power. He believes the bantamweight weight class favors Nunes, and that Chandler is too open on the feet. He references Chandler's loss to Norma Dumont where she looked lost.

Angelo is surprised Filho is a legitimate favorite. He acknowledges Filho's grappling advantage and size on the ground, and that Osbourne was taken down easily in his last fight. However, he has too much respect for Osbourne's striking and scramble skills to bet on this fight. He decides to leave it alone, making no pick.

Big Brady picks Jafel Filho to win by second-round submission. He believes Filho's toughness and ground game will be too much for Osbourne, who has poor cardio and has been submitted before. He expects Filho to survive an early onslaught and then take over.

Cody picks Jafel Filho, praising his grappling and finishing ability. He notes Osbourne is prone to mistakes and has submission issues. Filho can take a punch and will relentlessly pursue takedowns and submissions. He expects Filho to catch a submission once the fight hits the ground.

The host acknowledges Osbourne's early danger with speed and power but expects Filho to deal with that, wear on Osbourne against the cage, and drag him to the ground for a submission in the second or third round. He notes Osbourne tends to slow down and give up bad positions, similar to his fight against Alateng.

Paul also picks Filho, highlighting Osbourne's durability and submission issues. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop at -185, noting Filho comes hot and Osbourne may not withstand the onslaught. He mentions Filho has third-round finishes, showing he can finish late.

The Guru picks Jafel Filho, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Filho's submission win over Daniel Barez while concussed, and his near-submission of Muhammad Mokaev. He dismisses Osbourne's wins as against low-level opponents like Jerome Rivera and Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and notes Osbourne is 32 and not a young prospect. He expects Filho to find a submission in round one or two.

Angelo is surprised the line is -170 for Culibao, but he thinks Culibao is the much better fighter everywhere. Culibao is a solid, aggressive striker who throws with heat and is always live for a knockout, while Silva has clean technique but is not dangerous and can be taken down. He notes Culibao looked terrible in his last loss but still expects him to win, and advises jumping on the line early as it may widen.

Big Brady picks Danny Silva to win by third-round knockout. He likes Silva's relentless pressure and high volume, and thinks he can break Culibao, who has been finished before. He acknowledges Culibao's power but believes Silva's chin and pace will be too much.

Cody picks Danny Silva as the underdog, citing his high volume and durability. He notes Culibao has low output (career high 53 significant strikes) and no takedowns in the UFC. Silva throws volume and can outwork Culibao, though he may get caught. He sees Silva's activity swaying the judges.

The host expects a firefight on the feet but believes Culibao will eventually drag the fight to the ground and implement a submission-heavy game. He predicts Culibao will snatch a submission and mentions that the under 2.5 rounds is likely the best value.

Paul picks Josh Culibao, citing his experience and power. He is not impressed by Silva's regional competition and thinks Culibao can intercept Silva's recklessness with his own power. He acknowledges Silva's volume but believes Culibao's power and experience give him the edge.

The Guru picks Danny Silva, impressed by his contender series performance and pace. He criticizes Culibao's recent wins as unimpressive, noting he was manhandled by Jai Herbert and struggled against low-level opponents. He believes Silva's body shots and power will be key, and that Culibao is 'soft-bodied' and vulnerable. He also mentions Culibao took a beating from Lerone Murphy.

Angelo sees McKenna as the more well-rounded fighter with better cardio and striking pressure, but he is concerned about her year-long layoff due to getting married, which could be a distraction. He thinks if she survives Amorim's early takedown attempts, she can take over with striking and get takedowns of her own. He notes the line is -106 (slight underdog) and may move, so he's leaning McKenna but not fully confident.

Big Brady picks Cory McKenna by decision, but is hesitant due to McKenna's tendency to strike instead of grapple. He trusts McKenna's cardio and wrestling more than Amorim's, but notes Amorim's dangerous BJJ and reach advantage. He is not running to the window to bet on it.

Cody picks Jaqueline Amorim as a live underdog, citing her 10-inch reach advantage, BJJ black belt, and solid wrestling. He notes McKenna's cardio may be a factor but Amorim has paths to victory on the feet and on the ground. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and takes the plus money.

The host acknowledges Amorim's high-level BJJ but believes McKenna has good enough defensive grappling to keep the fight standing for the first round and a half. He expects McKenna to implement her superior striking and then grind out Amorim in the later rounds as Amorim's finishing ability fades. The pick is McKenna by decision.

Paul picks Cory McKenna, citing her ruggedness and wrestling. He questions Amorim's cardio, noting she gassed in her UFC debut. He expects McKenna to push a pace and take over in later rounds. He acknowledges both could win but leans McKenna.

The Guru picks Cory McKenna, citing her strength and physicality advantage over Amorim. He criticizes Amorim's lack of strength, noting she failed to finish locked-in chokes due to weak squeeze. He believes McKenna has better standup and takedown defense, despite a 10-inch reach disadvantage. He calls Amorim a 'frail hollow-boned bird woman' and expects McKenna's more masculine physique to prevail.

Angelo expects Moises to be a big favorite. He is a slick grappler who stays composed and works for submissions, with technical striking and solid low kicks to set up takedowns. Although Moises was taken down five times and mauled by Benoit Saint-Denis, Angelo notes that Ramirez is not on that level. He thinks Moises will win the striking exchanges and is good enough to defend takedowns or sweep off bottom. He will bet if the line is favorable.

Big Brady picks Thiago Moises to win by second-round submission. He views this as a levels fight, with Moises' BJJ and experience being far superior to Ramirez, who is coming in on short notice. He expects Moises to get a takedown and submit Ramirez.

Cody picks Thiago Moises, noting his experience against top competition and superior skills everywhere. He acknowledges Ramirez's danger as a short-notice debutant but believes Moises is better on the feet and on the ground. He warns about Moises' durability but expects him to win.

The host notes that Ramirez is stepping in on short notice and is less skilled and experienced than Moises. He expects Moises to have the technical striking advantage and eventually open up a club-and-sub opportunity to choke out Ramirez, getting back in the win column.

Paul agrees, stating Moises is better everywhere and has seen every trick Ramirez might have. He notes Ramirez's Contender Series loss and lack of high-level experience. He will not bet Ramirez.

Angelo notes that Anheliger has solid BJJ and power but his takedown defense has failed him repeatedly in the UFC, giving up 10 takedowns in four fights. Grigoriou is a powerful striker with heavy leg kicks and can also grapple with big takedowns and heavy top pressure. He believes Grigoriou's wrestling can bail him out if he gets into trouble on the feet. Despite being a heavy favorite, Angelo thinks Grigoriou will earn the price tag.

Big Brady picks Chad Anheliger to win by knockout in the third round. He notes that Anheliger is a dog with three-round cardio and hits hard, while Grigoriou can be low volume and has suspect cardio. However, he is not confident enough to bet on it.

Cody picks Charalampos Grigoriou, citing his youth (six years younger) and full camp. He notes Anheliger is 37, undersized at 135, and on a short-notice replacement with injuries. He thinks Grigoriou's striking and durability will edge out Anheliger, though Anheliger could catch him.

The host notes that both fighters have similar skill sets but gives the edge to Grigoriou due to his speed, explosiveness, and power advantage. He expects Grigoriou to land the more damaging blows from distance and win on the scorecards, though he acknowledges Anheliger's durability and good chin could make it difficult to finish.

Paul also picks Grigoriou, though he admits he doesn't know much about him. He notes Anheliger hasn't impressed and is likely on his way out. He passes on betting but leans Grigoriou.

The Guru picks Chad Anheliger as an upset, citing Grigoriou's red flags such as struggling with a 6-5 short-notice opponent and losing to an 8-6 fighter. He believes Anheliger is tough, won't get finished, and can outwork Grigoriou over the distance. He notes Grigoriou is slow and open on the feet, while Anheliger has shown durability and a grinding style.