vs
-130 +126
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Chris Duncan
4.83 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
4.57 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
2.92 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Yanal Ashmouz
2.88 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.78 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
3.24 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Chris Duncan
Moneyline
Caesars -130
KO/TKO
BetRivers +220
Submission
BetRivers +1300
Decision
FanDuel +330
Yanal Ashmouz
Moneyline
FanDuel +126
KO/TKO
BetWay +350
Submission
BetRivers +850
Decision
BetRivers +650
Chris Duncan - Fight History
LOSS vs Renato Moicano
Submission R2 3:14 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Renato Moicano 0 21 of 36 58% 62 of 84 1 of 4 25% 1 0 3:16
Chris Duncan 0 27 of 62 43% 30 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Renato Moicano 0 14 of 20 70% 16 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:13
Chris Duncan 0 17 of 38 44% 19 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Renato Moicano 0 7 of 16 43% 46 of 62 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:03
Chris Duncan 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Renato Moicano 21 of 36 58% 16 of 31 4 of 4 1 of 1 20 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 1
Chris Duncan 27 of 62 43% 8 of 39 5 of 7 14 of 16 25 of 60 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Renato Moicano 14 of 20 70% 10 of 16 3 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Duncan 17 of 38 44% 3 of 22 3 of 3 11 of 13 15 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Renato Moicano 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1
Chris Duncan 10 of 24 41% 5 of 17 2 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo picks Chris Duncan, noting his durability and never-quit attitude. He acknowledges Moicano is more technical and experienced but believes Moicano is old and used up. He points out that Duncan has a history of winning fights he's not supposed to and that Moicano's recent focus may not be enough. Angelo has no bet on this fight.

"Chris Duncan is going to be the pick. I think Moano is a little too old and used up at this point."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Moicano is dangerous in the first round but fades after that, citing the Dariush fight where Moicano did nothing in the last 10 minutes. He believes Duncan has better cardio, durability, and power, and that his takedown defense has improved since the Manuel Torres loss. He expects Duncan to drop the first round but take over and eventually knock out Moicano.

Duncan by KO in round 3
"I'm going to take Chris Duncan to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Cody picks Duncan due to his momentum, youth, and ability to take over in later rounds. He notes Moicano's losing streak and potential lack of focus, but acknowledges the fight could be competitive early. He expects Duncan's superior striking and work rate to secure a win.

"Personally, I'm going to end up going Duncan just being that he's the younger guy. He's got a whole lot of momentum right now."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)

The host finds it difficult to bet pre-fight. He notes Duncan is easy to take down, which plays into Moicano's strength, but Moicano's chin and cardio are questionable in a five-round fight. He sees value on neither side and will watch for live betting. He also notes the odds for 'fight doesn't go to decision' are terrible.

Odds for fight not to go to decision are terrible, so no bet.
"So for me, it's a very difficult for a pre-fight bet. And I'll probably give this one a miss pre-fight. Um, difficult fight to pre-fight. Hopefully we can live bet it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan to win, citing Duncan's upward trajectory, age advantage (32 vs 36), superior cardio, durability, and will to win. He notes Moicano's possible decline due to outside interests and a longer camp. James expects a war but believes Duncan's physicality and recoverability will carry him, especially in later rounds. He mentions Duncan's power and takedown defense as key factors, though he acknowledges Moicano's early speed and submission threat. James states he won't bet publicly due to friendship bias but will have 'beer money' on Duncan.

No public bet; beer money on Duncan moneyline
"I'm picking Chris to win this one. I think it's going to be a good fight. I think it's going to be another war, honestly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James picks Chris Duncan to win, citing his durability and power advantage over Moicano. He believes Duncan's momentum and shorter camp have him in peak form, and he predicts a fourth-round TKO finish. James also notes that Duncan's confidence is high from training with Moicano and seeing his own improvement.

Fourth round TKO
"I definitely think you got a durability advantage here. I think you got a power advantage. So, those two put together."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

James is rooting for his friend Chris Duncan and has released a full breakdown video with him. He mentions Chris is his friend and he will be rooting for him against Moicano, indicating a clear pick for Duncan.

"I'm definitely going to be rooting for him against Moicano this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host expects Duncan to counter Moicano effectively, showcase good grappling defense, and eventually break Moicano for a finish inside the distance. He notes Moicano's recent struggles, poor durability, and questionable gas tank, while Duncan is on a four-fight winning streak with evolving skills. The host predicts a second-round TKO or submission for Duncan.

under 2.5 rounds at -125
"I look for Duncan to counter Moano effectively... I think at a certain point within 10 maybe 12 and a half minutes we will see one of these guys get a finish. And I'm expecting it to be the Scott …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul leans towards Duncan, citing that Moicano struggles when outwrestled. He expects Duncan to use takedowns and control to win, though he's not heavily invested and plans to live bet.

"Duncan minus 170. Um, it's how I'd play it if I were to click the button right now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Chris Duncan

The MMA Guru picks Chris Duncan, admitting he has doubted him before but is now convinced. He believes Duncan's durability, grit, and damage output will overcome Moicano, especially if the fight gets scrappy. He notes Moicano hasn't looked himself and that Duncan has good submission defense. He predicts a third-round TKO.

Third-round TKO predicted
"I'm taking Duncan to win. I'm done doubting him. I'm done doubting Dunk."
Submission R1 2:30 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 31 of 57 54% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 38 of 55 69% 53 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 31 of 57 54% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 38 of 55 69% 53 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 31 of 57 54% 26 of 50 5 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 45 6 of 11 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 38 of 55 69% 36 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 20 6 of 8 22 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 31 of 57 54% 26 of 50 5 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 45 6 of 11 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 38 of 55 69% 36 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 20 6 of 8 22 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.

"I'm going to pick Terence McKini. Don't do anything with that information. These odds aren't good enough to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.

Duncan by first round knockout
"I'm going to say Duncan weathers the early storm and knocks out Terrence McKenna in very brutal fashion late in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.

"I'm gonna go with the Terrence McKenna side. Uh, but I will say with the caveat of um I feel like a Duncan round two prop at like plus 450 plus plus 600's out there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.

"I have to prick Chris Duncan the way, especially the way Chris Duncan is now. Like that's what I was going to say. Chris Duncan, I think has really gotten a lot better in a pretty short period of time."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.

"I am going to pick Chris Duncan. There's obviously a chance he gets finished in the first, but if he doesn't, he's got multiple avenues to victory."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.

Chris Duncan inside the distance
"I got Chris all day here, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think that we'll see Duncan eventually take advantage of McKenny's overaggressive style and find that finish under one and a half rounds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.

"I'm going to actually go with Chris Duncan in this spot. Just he's got more ways to win."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Terrence McKini getting this one done by TKO in the first round over Chris Duncan."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.

Duncan should be a bigger favorite
"I think Duncan could, that should actually be a bunch bigger favorite. Frankly."
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 114 of 267 42% 123 of 278 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:23
Mateusz Rębecki 0 92 of 222 41% 95 of 225 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 32 of 74 43% 38 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 19 of 62 30% 19 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 38 of 88 43% 38 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Mateusz Rębecki 0 25 of 62 40% 26 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Duncan 0 44 of 105 41% 47 of 109 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:04
Mateusz Rębecki 0 48 of 98 48% 50 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 114 of 267 42% 88 of 235 7 of 13 19 of 19 104 of 256 10 of 11 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 92 of 222 41% 67 of 181 20 of 35 5 of 6 85 of 214 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 32 of 74 43% 20 of 61 1 of 2 11 of 11 30 of 72 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 19 of 62 30% 10 of 47 6 of 12 3 of 3 19 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Duncan 38 of 88 43% 32 of 78 0 of 4 6 of 6 38 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 25 of 62 40% 17 of 48 8 of 13 0 of 1 25 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 44 of 105 41% 36 of 96 6 of 7 2 of 2 36 of 96 8 of 9 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 48 of 98 48% 40 of 86 6 of 10 2 of 2 41 of 90 7 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Duncan vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-200); Duncan (+170)

Round 1
Remaining in the lightweight division for the co-main event, a pair of friends and training partners at American Top Team will throw down for Coconut Creek bragging rights. Both men happen to be a win or two from ranked opposition, so this “separating wheat from chaff” matchup has fairly high stakes relative to most other fights on the card—the preceding Rosa vs. Cornolle pairing was the lone bout on the card between two ranked combatants. Rebecki (20-2, 4-1 UFC) and Duncan (13-2, 4-1 UFC) will handle their business with matching 4-1 records in the UFC at stake, and referee Kerry Hatley will serve as the third man in the Octagon. The teammates touch gloves before determining how exactly how much pain they wish to inflict on one another.
Duncan leads off immediately with a head kick, and Rebecki comes right after him swinging. Rebecki loads up on his left hand, and Duncan knocks him back with his own right hook. The two are talking to one another as they load up with massive power—at this point, it appears they are going brawl it out. Rebecki knocks Duncan down to the ground with his swinging shots, and Duncan is able to get back to his feet. As they trade again, a giant mouse develops on the top right corner of Rebecki’s head. Rebecki takes Duncan down briefly, and Duncan threatens off his back with an elbow and then tries to get hold of a submission. Rebecki backs out and stands up, with Duncan following suit. Rebecki is quick get put his foot on the gas once more, and Duncan fires back with impunity and opens a cut on Rebecki’s forehead above his right eyebrow. Duncan sits down on an elbow that Rebecki eats like a steak, and Rebecki continues to walk through damaging blows.
Duncan stays on his back foot attacking with body kicks, and Rebecki gets close to him and drives home three quick punches. Duncan strikes with another elbow and whiffs on a head kick, and he recovers after getting countered. Duncan goes for a body kick, and Rebecki counters cleanly with a right hook. Duncan drives a knee to the body and falls to his back, and Rebecki tackles him down and looks to get to the guard. Duncan turns over while under fire to get to his feet, and Rebecki is clinging to him from behind. Rebecki leans on his training partner, and Duncan grabs the fence to get a better position. Duncan breaks out of the grip around his waist, and they proceed to trade long straight punches. Duncan steps in with a knee and is wobbled by an overhand right. Rebecki swings with everything he has, a left hand jacking Duncan in the jaw but not hurting him. Duncan scores a few elbows, and the tense, vicious round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
Rebecki comes right out of his corner ready to attack, and he does just that by nailing Duncan with a crisp one-two. Duncan counters with a right hand, and he is reached by a left hook upstairs. Duncan delivers a body kick as Rebecki comes at him, and he does this again as Rebecki is trying to swing for the bleachers. Duncan misses on a kick, and Rebecki is bleeding again and strikes the body to open up head shots. Rebecki lobs a big left and a right that land flush on the sides of his foe’s head, and Duncan appears to get his foe’s attention with a sharp right hand. The Scotsman follows with a head kick that Rebecki somehow absorbs, barely still with it. Rebecki blinks it out and shoots for a double, and he takes a knee on the jaw on the way in. Duncan worms his way out the position to work back upright, and he elbows his teammate in the cut that has developed swelling around the gaping wound.
Rebecki does not care about the damage, blood in his eyes and a golf ball on his forehead, as he loops huge punches at Duncan again and again. Rebecki’s huge haymakers have swelled up Duncan’s eyes, and both men are going to need some recovery time when this is all said and done. Duncan rips a kick to the body and then stabs him in the torso with his toes. Rebecki lowers his guard to defend his guts, compromised from the strike, so Duncan attacks him with an elbow up top. Duncan goes to the body with kicks, and even when blocked, Rebecki takes them hard on the arms. Rebecki loads up on three punches to the dome, and he chases after Duncan with left hands as Duncan’s right eye balloons. Duncan kicks the front leg and jabs the gaping wound on his foe’s head, while Rebecki chases after him. Duncan knees him in the belly, and they trade hands right to the bell. Rebecki’s right eye is nearly swollen shut, and this one might not make it to the third round because of how trashed his face is.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 3
Rebecki is cleared between rounds, and he comes out of his corner like a berserker. Swinging his way forward to shoot for takedown, he gets Duncan down and pops back up without concern. Rebecki lets him up so he can punch him in the face, and they proceed to trade hilariously heavy leather. Duncan intercepts his hard-swinging foe with faster strikes, backing off the Polish brawler and forcing a shot out of him. Duncan stops it and blocks the oncoming fire, but Rebecki still gets through. Duncan lands a body kick, and Rebecki still manages to shoot in on his hips. Duncan hits the deck and threatens with an anaconda choke, rolling through it to lock it down, but Rebecki rolls through it further to escape. They both get up, and Duncan aims a head kick at Rebecki’s leaking visage. Rebecki looks for takedowns as he appears to be fading, while Duncan beats on him with elbows. Rebecki rips open a cut on Duncan’s left eye, and Duncan completely ignores it as he bashes Rebecki in the swollen eye. Just bleed indeed.
Rebecki has his right eye closed, and Duncan closes in to tie him up to get a few seconds to catch his wind before they re-engage. Duncan stabs the body with his foot, and Rebecki is right in his face slugging him. Rebecki loops a left hand and zips an uppercut through the guard. Both men are bloodied and battered, but they continue to bang. Duncan wobbles back, starting to feel it himself, and Rebecki somehow is willing himself into a second or third wind. Duncan pushes “Chinczyk” to the fence, and Rebecki explodes out and hurls punches in bunches. Duncan boots him in the head, and Rebecki is impossibly tough as he tanks it and keeps throwing caution to the wind. Duncan lines up a knee to the forehead, and Rebecki unloads several uppercuts on the inside. They split up, and smash one another in the face right until time expires. Blood pours out of various wounds on both men, and Rebecki collapses to his knees while Duncan raises his arms in the air. What a titanic tussle, somehow outdoing the match before it and putting itself in contention for “Fight of the Year.” TLDR? Go back and watch this somehow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Duncan)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Chris Duncan def. Mateusz Rebecki via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Duncan despite the fight being a toss-up. He believes Duncan is more naturally dangerous as a finisher and power striker, and that his improved shot selection and calmness under pressure will allow him to land big shots. He acknowledges Rębecki's pressure and durability could wear Duncan down, but trusts Duncan's one-shot power to turn the fight.

"I think I'm gonna take Duncan here. I just like the potential for him as a finisher and as a power striker in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James admits bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides a detailed breakdown. He believes Duncan has the size and reach advantage, better overall striking with kicks and range management, and the power to hurt Rębecki. He thinks Rębecki will struggle to take Duncan down due to Duncan's strength and ability to get back up, and that Rębecki may gas out if he grapples too much. He predicts a war where Duncan hurts Rębecki and finishes with a submission in round 2. He also mentions playing an under on the fight not going to decision.

Fight doesn't go to decision; Submission round 2
"Chris Duncan submission round two after a war. He hurts Rebecki, jumps on the gilly."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane picks Rębecki, noting that Rębecki's constant pressure, body work, and clinch grinding could overwhelm Duncan, who has struggled against aggressive fighters like Manuel Torres. He questions whether Duncan's improved shot selection will hold up against Rębecki's relentless pace. Zane sees Rębecki as a more consistent process fighter who can wear down opponents over time.

"I'll just take Rubisky. Yeah, it's been a minute since I've seen somebody like this does stand out to me on Chris Duncan's records that these are some pretty measured long range fighters that he has been taking on."
Submission R2 3:42 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jordan Vucenic 0 16 of 26 61% 22 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:12
Chris Duncan 1 15 of 40 37% 24 of 50 4 of 5 80% 1 0 5:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jordan Vucenic 0 1 of 3 33% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 9 of 13 69% 16 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:55
2 Jordan Vucenic 0 15 of 23 65% 18 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:12
Chris Duncan 0 6 of 27 22% 8 of 29 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jordan Vucenic 16 of 26 61% 13 of 21 1 of 1 2 of 4 12 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2
Chris Duncan 15 of 40 37% 9 of 31 5 of 5 1 of 4 8 of 30 1 of 2 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jordan Vucenic 1 of 3 33% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Duncan 9 of 13 69% 5 of 7 4 of 4 0 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 8
2 Jordan Vucenic 15 of 23 65% 12 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 19 2 of 2 2 of 2
Chris Duncan 6 of 27 22% 4 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

Angelo picks Jordan Vucenic but is hesitant due to the heavy -350 odds. He acknowledges Vucenic looked good in his debut despite the loss, showing durability and danger. He worries about Chris Duncan's incredible durability and ability to come back from being beaten. He decides not to bet the fight due to the poor value.

"I am going to pick Jordan here but I I don't love these minus 350 odds and I'm not going to touch them"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

Brady is high on Vucenic, praising his striking and opportunistic submission game. He thinks Vucenic has advantages everywhere: speed, durability, and grappling. He notes Chris Duncan is a walking punching bag and was submitted by Manuel Torres. Brady predicts a second-round submission.

Vucenic by submission round 2
"give me Jordan venage to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Vucenic. He emphasizes Vucenic's technical boxing, lead right hand, and ability to finish fights, while Duncan struggles going backwards and lacks a jab. He believes Vucenic will boss Duncan around from the start.

Vucenic opened at -367, currently -400; Duncan opened at +254, currently +344.
"It does just look like this is good. Yeah, he's just gonna get to boss. Duncan around from the get-go."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

The host thinks the line is a bit wide but expects Vucenic to put together a better body of work and win on the scorecards. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds is the best way to bet this fight.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think the over one and a half is probably the best way to win this fight for Vu Chennich or at least bet this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

The Guru is confident in Jordan Vucenic, citing his speed, technical striking, and composure. He notes that Vucenic is much faster than Duncan and has reach at lightweight. He expects Vucenic to school Duncan over three rounds, winning a 30-27 decision, as Duncan is too slow and susceptible to getting caught in submissions.

decision 30-27
"I'm going with Jordan venik"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Vucenic

Zane picks Vucenic confidently, highlighting his improved pressure fighting, technical striking, and finishing instincts. He contrasts Duncan's lack of a range game and poor defense going backwards, predicting Vucenic will overwhelm him. He notes Vucenic's loss to Kutateladze was competitive and he has since improved.

Vucenic opened at -367, currently -400; Duncan opened at +254, currently +344. Zane is surprised the line isn't wider.
"This feels like a very good fight for vucenic. Absolutely. One of the easier picks on the card for me."
WIN vs Bolaji Oki
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 28 of 50 56% 29 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:11
Bolaji Oki 0 10 of 25 40% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 28 of 50 56% 29 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:11
Bolaji Oki 0 10 of 25 40% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 28 of 50 56% 25 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0 21 of 39 6 of 8 1 of 3
Bolaji Oki 10 of 25 40% 7 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 6 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 28 of 50 56% 25 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0 21 of 39 6 of 8 1 of 3
Bolaji Oki 10 of 25 40% 7 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 6 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo picks Chris Duncan as an underdog. He believes Duncan's willingness to stand in the pocket and pump a jab non-stop will frustrate Oki, who has defensive issues and gets hit often. Duncan's durability and ability to survive being dropped are key factors. Angelo notes he might sprinkle a small bet if Duncan's line becomes a bigger underdog.

might sprinkle a dollar or two if line moves to high pluses
"Chris Duncan's gonna win this fight... Chris has that solid jab... Chris has what seems like a very good chin..."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Big Brady picks Bolaji Oki but is hesitant due to Chris Duncan's poor striking defense (49%) and tendency to walk into shots. He notes Oki has power and could hurt Duncan, but thinks the fight could be close and competitive. He expects Oki to win by decision, possibly dropping Duncan at some point.

Oki by decision
"I'm going to take Oki here um I'm going to take him to win this fight either I'll say by decision maybe he hurts Duncan here or there maybe it drops him but I'm going to say Oki wins this …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Cody leans towards Duncan as an underdog, citing Oki's questionable cardio and takedown defense. He notes that Duncan has wrestling and can take Oki down, potentially tiring him. However, he acknowledges Oki's power and the risk of getting knocked out. He doesn't plan to bet heavily.

"I'll side with Duncan strictly because these new gloves have ruined Knockouts"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Cody picks Bolaji Oki as his tournament play, highlighting his physicality, power, and early knockout potential. He notes Oki is minus 105 to win inside the distance and that Chris Duncan has been badly hurt in past fights. Cody believes Oki is a more technical and powerful striker with better durability, making him a sneaky tournament target at 8.8k.

win inside the distance (-105)
"I'm going to throw Bolaji Oki here at 8.8k against Chris Duncan... he's minus 105 to win inside the distance."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Oki is a much cruder fighter despite being a better athlete. He thinks Duncan's experience and ability to game plan will be key. Connor also mentions that Duncan has shown flexibility in his approach, which should help him avoid Oki's early power.

"I think it's all backwards."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Daniel Vreeland picks Bolaji Oki to win by knockout. He thinks Oki is much faster and more powerful on the feet, and that Duncan is hittable and slow. He notes Oki's good takedown defense and counter-striking. He expects Oki to hurt Duncan and finish him, possibly with body shots.

wins by KO
"I'm going to pick hoki to to find a KO here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

JP picks Bolaji Oki because of his power and nine-fight win streak. He notes Oki has never been finished and Chris Duncan has been KO'd by Slava Claus and submitted by Manuel Torres, which he views as poor performances. JP believes Oki's power will be too much for Duncan.

"give me uh Oki by KO okay [ __ ] Duncan no way you're getting submitted by a bum like Torres"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Paul leans towards Oki, believing his power will eventually catch Duncan, who has a questionable chin. He notes that Oki's takedown defense is a concern, but Duncan's wrestling isn't elite. He expects Oki to land a knockout at some point, though he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"I think at some point Oki just melts him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

The MMA Guru picks Bolaji Oki over Chris Duncan, citing Oki's superior speed and fluidity. He notes that Duncan is slow for the division and hasn't impressed, while Oki looked technical in his UFC debut. He predicts Oki will land more damaging shots and win by decision.

"I'm going to go with bagok I think he'll just be a little bit more fluid a little bit more fast twist and I think that might be the difference in this fight so I'm going to pick him by …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Zane picks Duncan as an experience pick, noting that Duncan is reasonably well-rounded and can game plan. He thinks Duncan can lean on wrestling or aggressive striking to pressure Oki. However, he acknowledges Duncan has meltdown potential, but Oki doesn't have a grappling threat to trouble Duncan.

"My instinct is Duncan for what is essentially an experience pick."
LOSS vs Manuel Torres
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:46 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manuel Torres 0 3 of 5 60% 5 of 7 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:42
Chris Duncan 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manuel Torres 0 3 of 5 60% 5 of 7 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:42
Chris Duncan 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manuel Torres 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 2 of 2 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manuel Torres 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 2 of 2 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

Angelo picks Torres as the more dangerous fighter, citing his length and finishing ability. He acknowledges Duncan's durability and toughness but believes Torres will eventually break him. He mentions that over 1.5 rounds might be solid but Torres is the pick.

over 1.5 rounds might be solid
"I am going to pick Torres here I think he's the more dangerous guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

Big Brady picks Manuel Torres to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Torres has 15 finishes in 16 fights, all in the first round, and is a chaotic striker. He criticizes Chris Duncan's 49% striking defense and notes that Duncan has been knocked down and knocked out before. Brady believes Torres will draw Duncan into a brawl and that Torres has more power and durability. He expects the fight to end in the first round.

Torres wins by KO in round 1
"I'm going to take Torres to win this fight I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Cody picks Duncan as an underdog, noting that Torres is a first-round finisher with suspect cardio and grappling. He believes Duncan can take Torres down, make him carry weight, and grind him out. He mentions Duncan's improved wrestling and game plan against Ashmus. He acknowledges the risk of getting melted early but likes the plus price.

"dog number two for me I'll take Duncan"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host acknowledges Torres's power and early finishes but notes he overextends and can be countered. He believes Duncan is a more educated striker with a well-rounded game. If Duncan can survive the early onslaught, he can grind Torres against the cage and on the mat, finding a finish in the second or third round as Torres slows down.

Finish in second or third round
"I think if he can stay safe enough early in this fight he should be able to find those grinding opportunities up against the cage on the mat and the potential finishing opportunity in the second and third round as …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Duncan. He notes Torres is an offensive dynamo but has cardio issues and poor grappling defense. Duncan's takedowns and pressure could be key. He mentions Duncan's camp at American Top Team and his improved fight IQ. He thinks Duncan can avoid a gunfight and grind out a win.

"I'm with you Duncan plus 165 is a fine Underdog pick as far as I'm concerned"
WIN vs Yanal Ashmouz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 85 of 206 41% 87 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:48
Yanal Ashmouz 0 35 of 98 35% 36 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 19 of 60 31% 19 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Yanal Ashmouz 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 26 of 60 43% 26 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Yanal Ashmouz 0 14 of 36 38% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Duncan 0 40 of 86 46% 42 of 89 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:40
Yanal Ashmouz 0 12 of 34 35% 13 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 85 of 206 41% 54 of 161 23 of 30 8 of 15 82 of 200 3 of 6 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 35 of 98 35% 15 of 68 8 of 14 12 of 16 34 of 96 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 19 of 60 31% 11 of 46 2 of 5 6 of 9 19 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 9 of 28 32% 4 of 20 2 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Chris Duncan 26 of 60 43% 12 of 41 12 of 14 2 of 5 26 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 14 of 36 38% 6 of 26 3 of 5 5 of 5 14 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 40 of 86 46% 31 of 74 9 of 11 0 of 1 37 of 80 3 of 6 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 12 of 34 35% 5 of 22 3 of 4 4 of 8 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo likes Chris Duncan's forward pressure and grit, noting that Duncan has been dropped but never out of a fight. He questions Yanal Ashmouz's takedown defense and thinks Duncan's wrestling will be a factor. He has placed a half-unit bet on Duncan at near even money.

half unit bet placed
"I like Chris in this matchup I think that his forward pressure his grit are gonna get it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Shauna Bannon as a dog, but admits he hates the pick and won't bet it. He thinks Bannon has a path to victory through wrestling, as Brasil has poor takedown defense (45%). He notes Brasil is the more skilled striker but looked awful in her debut. He is not high on either fighter.

"I hate this pick I hate this fight but I'm gonna take another dog here and Sean abandon to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Cody picks Ashmouz, citing his power and aggression. He notes Duncan was knocked out by Borshchev and has suspect durability. He thinks Ashmouz's wrestling and power are advantages, and likes the plus money.

Ashmouz by KO, Ashmouz round 1 at +550
"him plus 120 don't mind it him like there's some like some of the props seem like extra spicy too"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Daniel leans toward Chris Duncan, citing his improved grappling and cage work shown in his last fight, as well as his physicality. He notes Duncan is training at ATT and getting high-level looks. However, he is not sold on Duncan's durability and thinks he is hittable. He is not interested in betting Duncan at -140 due to the unknowns about Ashmouz. He says he needs to see more from both fighters.

Daniel says he is not interested at the betting window. He mentions the line: Duncan -140, Ashmouz +125.
"I'm going to lean Duncan but I I'm not interested at the betting window"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

James picks Chris Duncan to win. He thinks Duncan is a better striker overall, with size and reach advantages. He believes Ashmouz will struggle to wrestle Duncan, making it a striking fight where Duncan has the edge. James notes that Ashmouz was a +300 underdog in his last fight and is now -110, which he sees as a market overcorrection. He acknowledges that both fighters have knockout power and the fight is volatile, but he favors Duncan.

"for that fight I do favor Duncan for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The host picks Yanal Ashmouz, citing his durability, explosiveness, and power to find an early finish. He expects both to grapple initially but thinks it becomes a fistfight where Ashmouz's power prevails. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision and that unders are safe.

fight doesn't go to decision, unders are safe
"I feel like ash moose has a little bit better durability a little bit more explosiveness and a little bit more power to eventually find that chin of Duncan and put his lights cleaned out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Paul picks Ashmouz, recalling his KO of Sam Patterson. He thinks Duncan is stiff and hittable, and Ashmouz's power is a real threat. He notes Duncan's wrestling looked good against Morales but still favors the dog.

Ashmouz by knockout
"I'm willing to take an underdog flyer here so samyam for you know Ash moons"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz, calling Chris Duncan's favorite status 'straight up incorrect odds'. He criticizes Duncan's UFC debut as one of the worst, showing no skill on the feet and a slow grappling game against an older Omar Morales. He notes Duncan has been finished before on the Contender Series. The Guru highlights Ashmouz's explosiveness and KO power, predicting a first-round TKO.

TKO in first round
"I'm definitely gonna have to side with you nalashmus he's coming off a wicked KO win over Sam Patterson"
WIN vs Omar Morales
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 53 of 83 63% 62 of 92 5 of 14 35% 0 0 6:31
Omar Morales 0 47 of 80 58% 53 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 24 of 40 60% 24 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Omar Morales 0 26 of 42 61% 27 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 14 of 24 58% 20 of 30 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:42
Omar Morales 0 7 of 17 41% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:02
3 Chris Duncan 0 15 of 19 78% 18 of 22 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:37
Omar Morales 0 14 of 21 66% 16 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 53 of 83 63% 12 of 25 17 of 21 24 of 37 43 of 73 3 of 3 7 of 7
Omar Morales 47 of 80 58% 32 of 64 5 of 6 10 of 10 41 of 73 5 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 24 of 40 60% 6 of 13 6 of 8 12 of 19 21 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0
Omar Morales 26 of 42 61% 18 of 34 2 of 2 6 of 6 22 of 37 3 of 4 1 of 1
2 Chris Duncan 14 of 24 58% 1 of 4 5 of 7 8 of 13 9 of 19 0 of 0 5 of 5
Omar Morales 7 of 17 41% 4 of 14 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 15 of 19 78% 5 of 8 6 of 6 4 of 5 13 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2
Omar Morales 14 of 21 66% 10 of 16 1 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo likes Chris Duncan because of his toughness and ability to recover from being dropped. He thinks Omar Morales' chin is effectively gone after back-to-back stoppage losses. He placed a half-unit bet on Duncan at -108 and expected the line to move. He believes Duncan will take damage but get the win.

bet at -108
"I do have a half of a unit moneyline bet on him at minus 108."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan as a slight underdog, citing his youth (29 vs 37), power, and toughness despite terrible striking defense. He notes Morales has not shown finishing ability at UFC level and is getting older. He predicts a second-round knockout, but admits he could care less about this fight and finds it hard to call.

"I'm going to take the slight dog here and Chris Duncan and knock out Omar Morales"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Cody picks Morales, despite his low volume and recent KO loss. He notes Duncan is a brawler who gets hit a lot and has poor defense. He thinks Morales has power and can land a big shot, especially with his training at Kill Cliff. He says Morales needs to show aggression and pounce if he hurts Duncan. He admits it's a risky pick but sees value.

"Omar Morales for me as well for a lot of the same points like it's just I don't think Chris Duncan is UFC caliber"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Connor picks Morales but with alarm bells, noting that Morales has mentally deteriorated after three hard losses and a failed weight cut. He believes the matchup is winnable because Duncan is a brawler who will trade at Morales's preferred range. However, he worries that Morales may break if frustrated, as seen in his last fight where he brawled wildly.

"I'll still pick Morales, but I did have to open with a big like alarm bells are ringing."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Jacob picks Omar Morales, citing experience and technical striking. He thinks Chris Duncan is slower than Uros Medic and not as relentless a wrestler as Jonathan Pearce, who beat Morales. He believes Morales can touch up Duncan on the feet and that Duncan will default to wrestling, where Morales is no joke on the ground.

"I am on the Omar side I think experience plays a big factor in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Morales is a disciplined striker with good distance management and kicks, while Duncan is a brawler who leaves himself open to counters. Morales should use his technical advantage to pick Duncan apart from range, likely winning a decision. If Duncan gets reckless, Morales could even get a knockout.

"I think he's the more disciplined Striker here which is going to be the main X Factor"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Paul picks Morales, echoing that Duncan is not UFC caliber. He notes Morales used to be durable but questions his chin after the KO. He thinks Morales has a better camp and can win, but if it goes to decision, the UK crowd might favor Duncan. He says it's a pick'em price and expects fireworks.

"Omar Morales for me as well... it should be fireworks... it's probably relatively right at a at a pickum type of price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

The MMA Guru picks Chris Duncan over Omar Morales, citing Duncan's youth and toughness. He notes Duncan had a rough weight cut before his contender series loss but has since recovered. Morales is 37 and coming off a KO loss, and his competition outside the UFC is not impressive. He predicts a fun scrap with Duncan winning a 29-28 decision, having more in the tank.

Duncan wins by decision 29-28
"I'm going with Chris Duncan winning this fight by decision I reckon 29-28 in a fun scrap"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Omar Morales

Zane also picks Morales but is cautious. He notes that Duncan is a wild brawler who gets hurt often, and Morales has the counter ability and sharpness to exploit that. However, he acknowledges that Morales's recent performances have been poor and that the fight is a referendum on where Morales is mentally.

"The matchup feels more than anything like a referendum on where Morales is at."
Yanal Ashmouz - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Quillan Salkilld 0 79 of 124 63% 89 of 135 8 of 23 34% 0 0 7:35
Yanal Ashmouz 0 41 of 78 52% 65 of 106 0 of 6 0% 0 1 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Quillan Salkilld 0 19 of 27 70% 24 of 32 4 of 9 44% 0 0 2:45
Yanal Ashmouz 0 14 of 25 56% 26 of 41 0 of 4 0% 0 1 1:19
2 Quillan Salkilld 0 20 of 37 54% 23 of 41 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:30
Yanal Ashmouz 0 8 of 12 66% 15 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
3 Quillan Salkilld 0 40 of 60 66% 42 of 62 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:20
Yanal Ashmouz 0 19 of 41 46% 24 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Quillan Salkilld 79 of 124 63% 54 of 98 18 of 19 7 of 7 51 of 82 15 of 22 13 of 20
Yanal Ashmouz 41 of 78 52% 31 of 64 7 of 11 3 of 3 22 of 54 14 of 17 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Quillan Salkilld 19 of 27 70% 11 of 19 5 of 5 3 of 3 12 of 18 7 of 9 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 14 of 25 56% 11 of 21 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 18 4 of 4 2 of 3
2 Quillan Salkilld 20 of 37 54% 16 of 32 2 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 13 2 of 6 12 of 18
Yanal Ashmouz 8 of 12 66% 5 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 6 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Quillan Salkilld 40 of 60 66% 27 of 47 11 of 11 2 of 2 33 of 51 6 of 7 1 of 2
Yanal Ashmouz 19 of 41 46% 15 of 35 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 30 5 of 7 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yanal Ashmouz vs. Quillan Salkilld
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salkilld (-485), Ashmouz (+370)

Round 1
Lightweight action continues with Gasper Oliver as the referee. Salkilld and his mustache open the fight with a jab. Ashmouz wastes no time getting in close and clinching. Salkilld gets back to his feet after being tossed to the ground, but can't exit the clinch. Not a problem as Salkilld gets a takedown as Ashmouz gives up his back before standing back up. Ashmouz uses a fence grab to prevent another takedown. Salkilld now controlling the grappling exchange, landing knees and short elbows. Ashmouz eats a knee and finally backs off. Salkilld lands a hard low kick. A nice uppercut from Salkilld, who then gets a brief takedown. Ashmouz works his way back to his feet. Salkilld then carries Ashmouz and slams his foe down, showing that he's dominant in all facets of this match. Ashmouz is trying to get back up but is eating punches. Another fence grab from Ashmouz. Nice knee to the body from Salkilld as they're both against the fence. Beautiful throw by Salkilld, who then takes the back of Ashmouz. Salkilld loses position with 20 seconds left and then gets back to his feet. Both men throw wildly, and Ashmouz lands a nice left hook before the round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld

Round 2
Salkilld eats a heavy leg kick to start the second frame. Ashmouz then gives up yet another takedown as Salkilld enters half guard. Ashmouz is able to get back to his feet but is dragged back down. Salkilld sneaking punches under the arm to the face of Ashmouz. Salkilld can't keep his opponent down, but stuffs a takedown attempt from Ashmouz and then drags him down again. This round is all Salkilld, who takes the back of his opponent and lands some punishing punches. Ashmouz is able to get back up but is still in the clinch. The grappling of Salkilld is smothering, and he gets yet another takedown as he throws his opponent to the ground. They're back on their feet, and Ashmouz uses leg kicks to manage distance. Ashmouz grabs the neck of Salkilld during a takedown attempt, and the round expires with the two clinched against the fence.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Salkilld

Round 3
Ashmouz lands a big left hook. Salkilld answers back with a kick to the body and uses his range to land a standing elbow. Big left hook and a straight right from Ashmouz hurts him! Salkilld composes himself and lands a knee. Ashmouz gets reckless and gives up the takedown. That might've been his best chance in the fight. Ashmouz gets back up, but Salkilld is kneeing his legs and looking to drag him back down. A big right hook lands for Ashmouz. Salkilld is being backed up to the cage and is eating shots as a result. Another left hook for Ashmouz lands before a leg kick. Nice uppercut from Ashmouz, who is looking to finish this fight. Salkilld answers back with a left hook to the body. Ashmouz walks into a right hand, but follows it up with two swinging hooks that find their mark. Salkilld can't get a takedown and then eats a left hand. Ashmouz throws a head kick but slips, costing him precious time. One minute left, and Ashmouz is throwing hands while Salkilld is desperate to grapple. They clinch with Salkilld being able to slow this fight down. Ashmouz rolls to the ground and lands some punches in desperation as the round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ashmouz (29-28 Salkilld)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ashmouz (29-28 Salkilld)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ashmouz (29-28 Salkilld)

The Official Result
Quillan Salkilld def. Yanal Ashmouz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Angelo picks Quillan Salkilld, citing his striking advantage and ability to defend takedowns. He thinks Yanal will be forced to shoot early due to Quillan's striking. He warns Quillan not to pull guard. He has reservations about the 4-to-1 odds but still picks Quillan.

"Quillin's going to be the pick. I do have some reservations at the 4 to one odds, but I'm going with Salt Kid here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Big Brady picks Quillan Salkilld, liking his striking, volume, cardio, and size. He thinks Salkilld will win handily, likely by 30-27 decision, but notes the line is wide. He believes Ashmouz is a decent fighter but will be undersized and at a grappling disadvantage. He does not expect a finish.

"I like Sill killed. I think Sill is the real deal. I just don't think he's going to go out there and kind of run through him like the the line indicates."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Salkilld has a skill advantage that should be the difference maker. He needs to maintain distance to avoid Ashmouz's physicality and grinding. The pick is for Salkilld to outdamage and outpoint Ashmouz on the way to a decision victory.

"I think when it's all said and done, Skild's skill advantage will be the difference maker. And as long as he can maintain distance long enough, he should be able to outdamage and outpoint Ashmuz on route to a decision …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

The MMA Guru picks Quillan Salkilld to win, but criticizes the odds of -455 as too high, suggesting he should be around -200. He expects Salkilld to get a finish in the later rounds or win a decision, noting that Yanal Ashmouz has power and knocked out Sam Patterson. He acknowledges Salkilld is not invincible and has been hit before, but believes his technical skills will prevail.

Odds comment: -455 is insane, should be around -200. Finish prediction: second or third round TKO or decision.
"I am going to go with Quill and S killed getting this one done and I think he'll get a finish here in the later rounds."
WIN vs Trevor Peek
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yanal Ashmouz 0 55 of 107 51% 63 of 115 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Trevor Peek 0 42 of 66 63% 85 of 124 9 of 18 50% 0 0 8:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yanal Ashmouz 0 16 of 33 48% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Trevor Peek 0 4 of 11 36% 12 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:29
2 Yanal Ashmouz 0 22 of 33 66% 23 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Trevor Peek 0 10 of 16 62% 36 of 48 6 of 9 66% 0 0 2:41
3 Yanal Ashmouz 0 17 of 41 41% 22 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Trevor Peek 0 28 of 39 71% 37 of 53 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yanal Ashmouz 55 of 107 51% 29 of 78 18 of 21 8 of 8 48 of 99 7 of 8 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 42 of 66 63% 26 of 48 9 of 11 7 of 7 19 of 41 18 of 20 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yanal Ashmouz 16 of 33 48% 6 of 21 4 of 6 6 of 6 15 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 4 of 11 36% 4 of 9 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yanal Ashmouz 22 of 33 66% 11 of 21 9 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 28 5 of 5 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 10 of 16 62% 7 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 10 6 of 6 0 of 0
3 Yanal Ashmouz 17 of 41 41% 12 of 36 5 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 28 of 39 71% 15 of 26 7 of 7 6 of 6 12 of 23 11 of 11 5 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Angelo picks Yanal Ashmouz because he is the better fighter skill-for-skill, with technique everywhere, but he is hesitant because Trevor Peek is incredibly durable and has insane pressure. He notes that Yanal is still a dog and he has a bet on him, but he has buyer's remorse after watching Peek's toughness. He hopes Yanal doesn't break.

Angelo mentions he has a bet on Yanal Ashmouz as a dog.
"I am ultimately going to pick the better fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Big Brady picks Yanal Ashmouz as the underdog but says he wants nothing to do with betting on this fight. He describes it as a chaotic, back-and-forth war that likely goes to decision, with both guys having moments. Brady likes Ashmouz's ability to land big shots and mix in takedowns, but admits the fight could go either way.

"I'm actually going to take oshmo to win here just because I don't know you know Peak"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Cody echoes Paul's sentiment, praising Peek's chin, heart, and relentless pressure. He notes Ashmouz's lack of grappling and tendency to get taken down, while Peek's wrestling has improved. He expects Peek to walk through Ashmouz's strikes and land a knockout.

Trevor Peek by KO
"sign me up for Peak baby"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Daniel is a fan of Trevor Peek's fighting style and believes Ashmouz is KO-or-bust. He criticizes Ashmouz's low volume and reliance on one big shot, and thinks Peek can outwork him to a decision or catch him. He notes that Ashmouz struggled when he couldn't get the knockout against Chris Duncan. Daniel sees multiple paths to victory for Peek.

"I really think ashm is KO or bust in this spot and I think that Trevor Peak has multiple pass to Victory... I'm going Trevor Peak to outwork yanal ashm and get this dub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Peek is durable, aggressive, and has never been finished. Ashmouz hits hard but may struggle to keep the fight at range. In a pocket exchange, Peek's power and chin could prevail. However, the host prefers to watch rather than bet heavily, as this fight reveals ceilings for both.

Trevor Peek by knockout
"I'm going to lean Peak here Peak by knockout but I'd rather sit back and watch this on the sidelines."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Paul is a fan of Peek's style and believes his durability, pressure, and power will overwhelm Ashmouz, who is more technical but lacks grappling and has shown vulnerability to pressure. He notes Ashmouz's poor takedown defense and tendency to fade. He picks Peek by KO.

Trevor Peek by KO
"give me TR Peak by KO and yeah this is actually just like greediness and toughness overcoming a slight speed and Technical Advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz over Trevor Peek. He praises Ashmouz's power and notes he fought Chris Duncan with a broken arm and still went to a decision. He believes Peek is too hittable and that Ashmouz is primed to land big KO blows. He predicts a TKO win for Ashmouz, though he admits he will be rooting for Peek.

TKO prediction
"I'm going to go with Yan Al ASAS getting this one done probably by TKO"
LOSS vs Chris Duncan
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 85 of 206 41% 87 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:48
Yanal Ashmouz 0 35 of 98 35% 36 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 19 of 60 31% 19 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Yanal Ashmouz 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 26 of 60 43% 26 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Yanal Ashmouz 0 14 of 36 38% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Duncan 0 40 of 86 46% 42 of 89 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:40
Yanal Ashmouz 0 12 of 34 35% 13 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 85 of 206 41% 54 of 161 23 of 30 8 of 15 82 of 200 3 of 6 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 35 of 98 35% 15 of 68 8 of 14 12 of 16 34 of 96 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 19 of 60 31% 11 of 46 2 of 5 6 of 9 19 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 9 of 28 32% 4 of 20 2 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Chris Duncan 26 of 60 43% 12 of 41 12 of 14 2 of 5 26 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 14 of 36 38% 6 of 26 3 of 5 5 of 5 14 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 40 of 86 46% 31 of 74 9 of 11 0 of 1 37 of 80 3 of 6 0 of 0
Yanal Ashmouz 12 of 34 35% 5 of 22 3 of 4 4 of 8 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo likes Chris Duncan's forward pressure and grit, noting that Duncan has been dropped but never out of a fight. He questions Yanal Ashmouz's takedown defense and thinks Duncan's wrestling will be a factor. He has placed a half-unit bet on Duncan at near even money.

half unit bet placed
"I like Chris in this matchup I think that his forward pressure his grit are gonna get it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Shauna Bannon as a dog, but admits he hates the pick and won't bet it. He thinks Bannon has a path to victory through wrestling, as Brasil has poor takedown defense (45%). He notes Brasil is the more skilled striker but looked awful in her debut. He is not high on either fighter.

"I hate this pick I hate this fight but I'm gonna take another dog here and Sean abandon to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Cody picks Ashmouz, citing his power and aggression. He notes Duncan was knocked out by Borshchev and has suspect durability. He thinks Ashmouz's wrestling and power are advantages, and likes the plus money.

Ashmouz by KO, Ashmouz round 1 at +550
"him plus 120 don't mind it him like there's some like some of the props seem like extra spicy too"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Daniel leans toward Chris Duncan, citing his improved grappling and cage work shown in his last fight, as well as his physicality. He notes Duncan is training at ATT and getting high-level looks. However, he is not sold on Duncan's durability and thinks he is hittable. He is not interested in betting Duncan at -140 due to the unknowns about Ashmouz. He says he needs to see more from both fighters.

Daniel says he is not interested at the betting window. He mentions the line: Duncan -140, Ashmouz +125.
"I'm going to lean Duncan but I I'm not interested at the betting window"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

James picks Chris Duncan to win. He thinks Duncan is a better striker overall, with size and reach advantages. He believes Ashmouz will struggle to wrestle Duncan, making it a striking fight where Duncan has the edge. James notes that Ashmouz was a +300 underdog in his last fight and is now -110, which he sees as a market overcorrection. He acknowledges that both fighters have knockout power and the fight is volatile, but he favors Duncan.

"for that fight I do favor Duncan for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The host picks Yanal Ashmouz, citing his durability, explosiveness, and power to find an early finish. He expects both to grapple initially but thinks it becomes a fistfight where Ashmouz's power prevails. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision and that unders are safe.

fight doesn't go to decision, unders are safe
"I feel like ash moose has a little bit better durability a little bit more explosiveness and a little bit more power to eventually find that chin of Duncan and put his lights cleaned out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Paul picks Ashmouz, recalling his KO of Sam Patterson. He thinks Duncan is stiff and hittable, and Ashmouz's power is a real threat. He notes Duncan's wrestling looked good against Morales but still favors the dog.

Ashmouz by knockout
"I'm willing to take an underdog flyer here so samyam for you know Ash moons"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz, calling Chris Duncan's favorite status 'straight up incorrect odds'. He criticizes Duncan's UFC debut as one of the worst, showing no skill on the feet and a slow grappling game against an older Omar Morales. He notes Duncan has been finished before on the Contender Series. The Guru highlights Ashmouz's explosiveness and KO power, predicting a first-round TKO.

TKO in first round
"I'm definitely gonna have to side with you nalashmus he's coming off a wicked KO win over Sam Patterson"
WIN vs Sam Patterson
KO (punches) R1 1:15 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yanal Ashmouz 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yanal Ashmouz 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yanal Ashmouz 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 15 of 20 75% 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yanal Ashmouz 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 15 of 20 75% 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Angelo is on the underdog Ashmouz, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +230. He thinks Patterson is overrated because he is tall but does not use his length well in striking and is very hittable. He notes Ashmouz is well-rounded, comes forward, and has a solid chin. He believes Ashmouz can overwhelm Patterson.

bet at +230
"I like you know I'll ask Moms to win this fight I got a quarter of a unit on him at plus 230."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Big Brady picks Patterson despite many red flags (poor striking defense, poor takedown defense). He is impressed by Patterson's submission game and believes he will find a submission win. He predicts a second-round submission, but notes he will look to fade Patterson in the future. He will not bet this fight at -260.

will not bet this fight
"I think he's Subs ashmost here I'm going to say second round submission for Patterson"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Patterson, citing his size (6'3", 78" reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Patterson has fought good competition on the regional scene and has a nasty guillotine. He thinks Ashmouz will struggle to get inside and take Patterson down, and even if he does, Patterson can get back up. He says minus 270 is a bit steep for a UFC debut but Patterson should win.

"I actually do like Sam Patterson the tricky situation here though is that he's a minus 270 favorite in his UFC debut that's not something I love"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Connor picks Ashmouz, citing his violent grappling and punching power. He notes that Patterson is a tall, gangly fighter with gaps in his game, especially when pressured. Connor expects Ashmouz to close the distance, take Patterson down, and punish him on the ground, despite the significant size disadvantage.

"I am definitely going to pick Ashmouz."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Jacob is also on Ashmouz, criticizing Patterson's striking as resembling a high schooler with no power and a chin up in the air. He thinks Ashmouz's pressure and wrestling will be too much, and Patterson does not like to get hit. He expects Ashmouz to control the fight on the feet and on the ground.

"Sam Patterson sucks."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Patterson uses his long frame to pick opponents apart from distance and has a dangerous guillotine choke when they shoot. Ashmouz is wild and reckless, crashing the pocket with overhands, which could lead to a desperation takedown. Patterson should eventually snatch up a submission. The fight doesn't go to decision is the preferred bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think eventually he's gonna hurt you know and that will force a bad shot of you now which will allow Patterson to lock up that neck and take home and submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Paul picks Patterson, noting Ashmouz didn't impress in his PFL fight. He says Patterson's size and reach are huge advantages, and Ashmouz is giving up tons of size. He says there is some action on Ashmouz but it won't be him. He says Patterson is the pick but minus 270 is not a great price.

"Patterson's the pick but mine is two seven minus 270 new thank you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The MMA Guru picks Sam Patterson to win by late-round submission, likely a guillotine. He praises Patterson's calmness and ability to latch on finishes, despite early trouble. He notes Patterson has faced tough competition outside the UK, including a draw with Ahmed Amir and a loss to a Dagestani fighter, which gives him valuable experience. He expects Patterson to weather early adversity and find a choke.

Patterson wins by submission (guillotine)
"I'm gonna go Sam Patterson wins this one and I think you'll win it by a late round submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Zane also picks Ashmouz, agreeing that Patterson's defensive flaws and tendency to get hit will be exploited. He notes that Patterson has some interesting tall-man skills but is too uncoordinated and hittable. Zane believes Ashmouz's takedown game and top pressure will be decisive.

"I'll pick Ashmouz as well."
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Angelo likes Chris Duncan's forward pressure and grit, noting that Duncan has been dropped but never out of a fight. He questions Yanal Ashmouz's takedown defense and thinks Duncan's wrestling will be a factor. He has placed a half-unit bet on Duncan at near even money.

half unit bet placed
"I like Chris in this matchup I think that his forward pressure his grit are gonna get it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
No clear pick

Big Brady picks Shauna Bannon as a dog, but admits he hates the pick and won't bet it. He thinks Bannon has a path to victory through wrestling, as Brasil has poor takedown defense (45%). He notes Brasil is the more skilled striker but looked awful in her debut. He is not high on either fighter.

"I hate this pick I hate this fight but I'm gonna take another dog here and Sean abandon to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Cody picks Ashmouz, citing his power and aggression. He notes Duncan was knocked out by Borshchev and has suspect durability. He thinks Ashmouz's wrestling and power are advantages, and likes the plus money.

Ashmouz by KO, Ashmouz round 1 at +550
"him plus 120 don't mind it him like there's some like some of the props seem like extra spicy too"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Daniel leans toward Chris Duncan, citing his improved grappling and cage work shown in his last fight, as well as his physicality. He notes Duncan is training at ATT and getting high-level looks. However, he is not sold on Duncan's durability and thinks he is hittable. He is not interested in betting Duncan at -140 due to the unknowns about Ashmouz. He says he needs to see more from both fighters.

Daniel says he is not interested at the betting window. He mentions the line: Duncan -140, Ashmouz +125.
"I'm going to lean Duncan but I I'm not interested at the betting window"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

James picks Chris Duncan to win. He thinks Duncan is a better striker overall, with size and reach advantages. He believes Ashmouz will struggle to wrestle Duncan, making it a striking fight where Duncan has the edge. James notes that Ashmouz was a +300 underdog in his last fight and is now -110, which he sees as a market overcorrection. He acknowledges that both fighters have knockout power and the fight is volatile, but he favors Duncan.

"for that fight I do favor Duncan for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The host picks Yanal Ashmouz, citing his durability, explosiveness, and power to find an early finish. He expects both to grapple initially but thinks it becomes a fistfight where Ashmouz's power prevails. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision and that unders are safe.

fight doesn't go to decision, unders are safe
"I feel like ash moose has a little bit better durability a little bit more explosiveness and a little bit more power to eventually find that chin of Duncan and put his lights cleaned out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Paul picks Ashmouz, recalling his KO of Sam Patterson. He thinks Duncan is stiff and hittable, and Ashmouz's power is a real threat. He notes Duncan's wrestling looked good against Morales but still favors the dog.

Ashmouz by knockout
"I'm willing to take an underdog flyer here so samyam for you know Ash moons"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz, calling Chris Duncan's favorite status 'straight up incorrect odds'. He criticizes Duncan's UFC debut as one of the worst, showing no skill on the feet and a slow grappling game against an older Omar Morales. He notes Duncan has been finished before on the Contender Series. The Guru highlights Ashmouz's explosiveness and KO power, predicting a first-round TKO.

TKO in first round
"I'm definitely gonna have to side with you nalashmus he's coming off a wicked KO win over Sam Patterson"