UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady

Angelo picks Sean Brady, reasoning that Leon Edwards often fights passively and freezes when threatened with takedowns. He believes if Brady fights like Belal Muhammad—moving forward, throwing strikes, and shooting takedowns—he will win. He acknowledges Leon is the better fighter skill-wise but doubts he will pull the trigger. He is not betting the fight because Leon is too good to bet against.

Brady is torn but picks Edwards, citing that Brady is not Belal Muhammad and lacks his cardio and wrestling. He thinks Edwards is the better striker and may get hometown cooking in a close fight. He predicts a very close decision win for Edwards, but says he won't bet it.

Connor picks Brady, emphasizing that if Brady sticks to the Belal Muhammad blueprint—constant pressure and wrestling—he can neutralize Edwards. He acknowledges Edwards' danger but believes Brady's physicality and simple game plan can overcome Edwards' tendency to fade. However, he worries Brady might get psyched out and crumble.

The host believes Edwards has shown good takedown defense in the past and, given Brady's wrestling style compared to Belal Muhammad, Edwards should survive the early takedown onslaught. He expects Edwards to start stopping takedowns in the later rounds and showcase his striking advantage, leading to a late knockout or decision win.

The Guru confidently picks Leon Edwards, questioning why he is an underdog. He believes Edwards is a better striker and will control the distance, while Brady's takedowns will be stuffed or reversed. He notes that Brady struggled against Belal Muhammad and Michael Chiesa, and that Edwards has good reversals and butterfly guard. He expects a dull 49-46 or 48-47 decision win for Edwards.

Zane picks Edwards despite acknowledging Brady's path to victory via pressure and wrestling. He believes Edwards' psychological resilience and ability to find moments of danger will be decisive, while Brady tends to crumble when his game plan fails. Zane notes Edwards' fatal flaws but trusts his championship experience over Brady's tendency to implode.

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg, citing Jan Błachowicz's age (42) and lack of recent wins over light heavyweights. He notes that Jan's wins are mostly over middleweights and his last win was due to a freak injury. He acknowledges Ulberg didn't look great in his last fight but believes he will be too fast and too young. He mentions a text argument with Jacob about this fight.

Brady thinks Blachowicz is old (42), coming off injuries and layoff, and likely not the same fighter. He predicts Ulberg wins by decision. However, he notes the line is silly and if Blachowicz looks healthy without knee sleeves, he might take a small bet on him.

Connor picks Jan, sticking with the old man despite the risks. He argues Jan has been an unsolvable puzzle for most light heavyweights due to his compact defense, counter-punching, and leg kicks. He hasn't seen Jan decline yet and believes his experience and durability will carry him, though he admits the layoff and age are concerns.

The host leans with Ulberg's striking advantage, noting Błachowicz is coming back from injury, a long layoff, and is 42 years old. He expects Ulberg to shut down takedowns, touch him up on the feet, and win on the scorecards.

The Guru confidently picks Jan Błachowicz, despite his age and surgeries, because he believes Błachowicz is a much better striker than Ulberg's previous opponents. He notes that Ulberg struggled against OSP and Devin Clark, while Błachowicz has beaten top competition. He expects Błachowicz to out-strike Ulberg, especially in a three-round fight at sea level, and sees value in Błachowicz as a nearly 3-to-1 underdog.

Zane picks Ulberg, citing Jan's age (42), long layoff, and shoulder injury as major concerns. He believes Ulberg's speed, jab, and improving striking can overwhelm Jan, especially in a three-round fight. However, he acknowledges Jan's durability, leg kicks, and counter-punching make him dangerous, and Ulberg's inconsistency could cost him.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite his poor takedown defense, arguing that skill-wise Holland is the better fighter. He notes that Holland is likely fighting for his job at welterweight and will be motivated. He criticizes Gunnar Nelson's inactivity (2 years), poor striking differential, and lack of wins over active UFC fighters. He has a small bet on Holland.

Brady is very hesitant but picks Holland, calling it 'One Last Ride'. He notes Nelson is 36, inactive (2 fights in 5 years), has no striking, and is coming off a 2-year layoff. Holland has an astronomical striking advantage and is fighting at welterweight where he belongs. Brady predicts a second-round knockout.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nelson. He highlights Holland's inability to wrestle seriously and his tendency to fall apart when pressured. Nelson's striking, though limited, will force Holland to close distance, leading to takedowns and submissions. Connor is confident Nelson will look the same despite the layoff.

The host notes Nelson doesn't fight often but still showcases superb jiu-jitsu. He expects Nelson to get a body lock, drag the fight to the ground, find the back, and secure a submission win over Holland.

The Guru confidently picks Gunnar Nelson, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and takedown entries. He expects Nelson to get a takedown, take Holland's back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes that Holland is susceptible to grapplers and has not finished anyone early in a long time. He acknowledges a small chance Holland lands a 45-70 kick but dismisses it.

Zane confidently picks Nelson, arguing that Holland's poor wrestling and tendency to crash forward will play directly into Nelson's strengths. Nelson's karate-style striking and elite ground game will exploit Holland's lack of takedown defense and submission awareness. He expects Holland to either get taken down and submitted or run into Nelson's clinch.

Angelo picks Molly McCann as a plus 150 underdog, having bet on her at that price. He initially thought Molly was in trouble but after tape study, he believes Alexia Thainara is not very good and her record is misleading. He thinks Molly's toughness, forward pressure, and takedowns will secure a hometown win. He notes the line movement was crazy and he suspects people are just looking at Alexia's record.

Brady likes Thainara's improved striking and BJJ black belt. He notes Molly McCann has been submitted multiple times and had her back taken in her last fight. Brady thinks if the fight hits the mat, McCann is in trouble. He predicts a first-round submission, either armbar or rear-naked choke.

Connor picks Thainara, arguing that McCann is capable of losing to anyone and Thainara's wrestling and submissions could be the key. He notes Thainara's athleticism and ability to take McCann down, where McCann is suicidal on the ground. However, he admits Thainara is raw and may not execute the right game plan.

The host sees this as a solid spot for Thainara to utilize her overall game. McCann may be more powerful, but Thainara will get the fight into grappling, keep McCann on her back, and open up a submission or win on the scorecards.

The Guru picks Alexia Thainara, praising her power, physicality, and reach advantage. He notes that she 'punches like a man' and has strong takedowns. He expects her to be too much for Molly McCann, possibly holding her down and beating her up on the ground for a TKO win. He also mentions that Thainara will be hungrier.

Zane picks McCann despite acknowledging Thainara's athleticism and grappling potential. He believes Thainara is too raw and will likely engage in striking, where McCann's volume and aggression can overwhelm her. However, he notes McCann's tendency to lose fights she should win and Thainara's ability to wrestle could be a problem.

Angelo picks Jordan Vucenic but is hesitant due to the heavy -350 odds. He acknowledges Vucenic looked good in his debut despite the loss, showing durability and danger. He worries about Chris Duncan's incredible durability and ability to come back from being beaten. He decides not to bet the fight due to the poor value.

Brady is high on Vucenic, praising his striking and opportunistic submission game. He thinks Vucenic has advantages everywhere: speed, durability, and grappling. He notes Chris Duncan is a walking punching bag and was submitted by Manuel Torres. Brady predicts a second-round submission.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Vucenic. He emphasizes Vucenic's technical boxing, lead right hand, and ability to finish fights, while Duncan struggles going backwards and lacks a jab. He believes Vucenic will boss Duncan around from the start.

The host thinks the line is a bit wide but expects Vucenic to put together a better body of work and win on the scorecards. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds is the best way to bet this fight.

The Guru is confident in Jordan Vucenic, citing his speed, technical striking, and composure. He notes that Vucenic is much faster than Duncan and has reach at lightweight. He expects Vucenic to school Duncan over three rounds, winning a 30-27 decision, as Duncan is too slow and susceptible to getting caught in submissions.

Zane picks Vucenic confidently, highlighting his improved pressure fighting, technical striking, and finishing instincts. He contrasts Duncan's lack of a range game and poor defense going backwards, predicting Vucenic will overwhelm him. He notes Vucenic's loss to Kutateladze was competitive and he has since improved.

Angelo picks Morgan Charrière, comparing him to a French version of Chito Vera. He believes Charrière's pressure, pace, and wrestling will be the difference. He notes that if Charrière fights Wood the same way Muhammad Naimov did (minus the fouls), he'll get a win. He acknowledges Wood is good but favors Charrière's style.

Brady calls this a very close fight with split decision written all over it. He favors Wood's volume and thinks the judges might give hometown cooking to Wood. He notes Charrière is the split decision king (losing them) and predicts Wood wins a close decision.

Connor picks Charrière, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Wood's fatal flaw of trying to do everything, which will allow Charrière to react and scramble. Charrière's aggression and durability, as shown in the Mario Bautista fight, make him a tough matchup. Connor believes Charrière's physicality and willingness to scrap will edge out Wood's technical but flawed game.

The host believes featherweight is Wood's ideal weight class, and he will showcase his output advantage and slick grappling to keep Charrière on the defensive. Wood's activity level will lead to an optical win on the scorecards.

The Guru picks Morgan Charrière, believing that Nathaniel Wood's tendency to get badly hurt in fights will eventually catch up to him. He notes that Charrière has nasty finishing instincts and will capitalize if he hurts Wood. He expects Wood to be winning on the feet initially, but then disaster strikes and Charrière gets a TKO in the second or third round.

Zane picks Charrière, citing his athleticism and ability to handle Wood's multifaceted game. He believes Wood's tendency to overcomplicate and insist on wrestling will play into Charrière's strengths, as Charrière is difficult to outwrestle and comfortable in the pocket. He notes Wood's losses to athletic fighters and expects Charrière's physicality to be decisive.

Angelo picks Chris Padilla, calling Jai Herbert overrated and noting his mediocre takedown defense. He believes Padilla's pressure, durability, and explosiveness will be key. He hopes Padilla wrestles more in this fight. He mentions the line is moving and he's picking Padilla while he's still a slight underdog.

Brady sees Padilla as a live dog who has improved a lot. He notes Herbert is hesitant and low-volume now, and Padilla has finishing upside with grappling and durability. Brady predicts a close decision win for Padilla, possibly with big moments and takedowns.

The host disagrees with the betting public moving towards Padilla. He believes Herbert is a cleaner striker with improved striking defense and durability, allowing him to operate at distance and win on the scorecards.

The Guru leans towards Chris Padilla as a slight underdog, citing his finishing streak and ability to get to dominant positions. He notes that Jai Herbert often has close decisions and may be nearing the end of his career at 36. He believes Padilla's dynamism and finishing potential will be the difference, and that Herbert's tendency to let fights get away will cost him.

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and composure. He acknowledges that Kavanagh hasn't faced top competition and that Felipe's forward pressure will test him. He wants to see if Kavanagh can fight backwards and counter-strike. Ultimately, he trusts Kavanagh's speed and potential, though he admits we'll learn a lot about him in this fight.

Brady likes Kavanagh's clean striking and power, and notes dos Santos has poor takedown defense and striking defense. He thinks Kavanagh can mix in takedowns if needed. Despite dos Santos being tough, Brady predicts a decision win for Kavanagh.

The host considers Kavanagh one of the hottest UK prospects and expects him to showcase his skills. Dos Santos might make it close early, but as Kavanagh's damage piles up, he will cause dos Santos to break, leading to a late finish or decision win.

The Guru picks Lone'er Kavanagh, believing he is crisper on the feet and has good grappling instincts. He notes that Kavanagh is compact and beats opponents to the punch, while dos Santos has been in many scraps and may be more damaged. He expects a TKO in the second or third round, as Kavanagh's pressure and body work will wear down dos Santos.

Angelo picks Mick Parkin, going against his bias for wrestlers. He notes Tybura's chin is fading after being wobbled in recent fights, but questions whether Parkin has one-punch knockout power. He thinks if Tybura can't get takedowns, he's in trouble, and Parkin's pace and control could be the difference. He admits it's a gut pick.

Brady is taking the underdog Tybura, questioning what a Mick Parkin win looks like. He notes Parkin's wins are against low-level competition and that he was outlanded by Kyle Machado. Brady thinks Tybura can win a close fight on the feet or dominate on top, and predicts a decision win.

The host notes that the UFC has brought Parkin along slowly, and now he faces a tough veteran. Parkin's athletic advantages in striking and grappling will be too much for the aging Tybura, leading to a late finish or decision win.

The Guru is confident in Mick Parkin, praising his conditioning, patience, and well-rounded game. He notes that Tybura has beaten many heavyweights who rush for a finish, but Parkin is patient and won't make that mistake. He expects Parkin to chop at the legs, stay composed, and win a 29-28 decision, as he has seen Parkin answer grappling questions that other Tybura opponents could not.

Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan as a massive favorite, stating the odds are spot on. He notes that while Duncan was out-wrestled in his last fight, Pulyaev's striking is limited to an occasional jab, so Duncan won't have to worry about power. He believes Duncan's takedown defense will hold up, and as the fight goes on, Pulyaev's takedowns will become sloppier.

Brady sees Duncan as a big favorite who beats lower-level guys in spectacular fashion. He thinks Pulyaev is in the same category as Duncan's previous wins. Brady predicts a second-round knockout, noting Pulyaev looked good on the contender series but fought a punching bag.

The host believes Duncan is far more athletic, powerful, and quicker on the feet, which will lead to a knockout in the second or third round. He emphasizes Duncan's physical advantages.

The Guru confidently picks Christian Leroy Duncan, believing he is too powerful and dense for Pulyaev, who he describes as frail and manipulatable. He expects Duncan to pressure Pulyaev backwards, push him against the cage, and land knees and elbows. He predicts a TKO in round two, as Pulyaev becomes more hesitant after being pressured early.

Angelo picks Shauna Bannon despite thinking Puja Tomar is the better fighter. He believes Shauna's size, strength, and forward pressure will allow her to get Puja against the cage and exploit grappling holes. He also factors in crowd support since Ireland is close to England. He expects a close decision and notes the fight is low-level but potentially fun.

Brady calls this a coin flip and expects a split decision. He favors Puja Tomar as the plus-money underdog because she is active with kicks and judges like activity. He criticizes Shauna Bannon for hitting air and thinks the fight is very low quality.

The host views this as a low-level matchup with neither woman threatening finishes, but Bannon's jiu-jitsu could cause issues for Tomar. Even in striking, Bannon's variety of strikes should trump Tomar's kicking game, leading to a decision or submission win.

The Guru picks Shauna Bannon, citing her 6-inch reach advantage and forward pressure. He notes that Puja Tomar gives up ground and backs up too much, which in close women's MMA fights often leads to pressure winning. He acknowledges Tomar's home crowd advantage in London but still favors Bannon's pressure and cage work. He expects a close 29-28 decision.

Angelo picks Nathan Fletcher, expressing strong dislike for Caolán Loughran's fighting style and personality. He criticizes Loughran for being non-committal, low volume, and failing to use his skills. Fletcher is described as a pressure fighter with good cardio and a never-quit attitude. Angelo expects the fight to go to decision due to Loughran's hesitance.

Brady thinks Loughran has a striking advantage and can take down Fletcher, despite Loughran's poor performance against Jake Hadley. He notes Fletcher gets reversed often and was controlled by Conor O'Malley. Brady expects a competitive fight but picks Loughran to win by decision.

The host notes that Loughran has improved tremendously since their amateur fight six years ago, and his strength and physicality will shut down Fletcher's grappling. He expects Loughran to keep Fletcher on the defensive and grind out a win.

The Guru is confident in Nathan Fletcher, praising his fluidity, head movement, and grappling compared to Loughran's stiffness. He describes Loughran as a 'Marvin Vettori of bantamweight'—tough but non-fluid and hittable. He believes Fletcher's better defense, reach advantage, and dynamic scrambles will be decisive. He expects Fletcher to win, possibly by decision or submission.

Angelo picks Kauê Fernandes as a 3-to-1 underdog, citing Guram Kutateladze's declining chin and recent struggles. He notes Guram was dropped in his last fight and is not the same prospect he once was. Angelo believes Kauê's forward pressure and power will be too much, though he is not betting the moneyline due to the long odds. He considers prop bets like inside distance or plus 3.5 rounds instead.

Brady sees Guram as a big favorite and expects him to take over as the fight goes on. He notes that Kauê has terrible cardio and takedown defense, so Guram can mix in takedowns and win minutes. Brady predicts a competitive early round but Guram pulling away and winning by decision.

The host believes Kutateladze's Muay Thai and wrestling will nullify most of Fernandes's offense, leading to a decision victory. He emphasizes Kutateladze's overall game and ability to control the fight.

The Guru leans towards Guram Kutateladze, citing him as the more well-rounded and technical fighter. He notes that Kauê Fernandes has a good finish over Muhammad Yaya but considers Yaya a low-level opponent. He believes Guram's recent loss to Elves Brener was competitive and that Guram was winning until he faded. He expects the fight to go to a decision or late finish, with Guram winning 2-1 on rounds.