UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady

Angelo picks Sean Brady because he is bigger, has good takedowns and Jiu-Jitsu, and is coming off a dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He questions how Gilbert Burns can win, noting Burns' small size, 50% takedown defense, and 38% takedown accuracy. He believes Brady's new-generation black belt will be too much for Burns, though he acknowledges Burns could control on top if he gets takedowns.

Big Brady picks Sean Brady to win by decision but admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence. He notes Burns is 38 and talking retirement, while Brady is 31 and improving. Brady thinks Brady's wrestling could win minutes and he might hurt Burns, but acknowledges Burns' phenomenal grappling and underrated striking. He expects a decision.

Cody picks Michael Morales, noting that Morales is 25, undefeated, and improving each fight. He expects Morales to take over as the fight goes into later rounds due to his youth and cardio advantage. Cody also mentions the reach advantage and judo background of Morales, and suggests live betting or over totals rather than laying -800.

Cody argues that Burns is the better striker with proven five-round experience, while Brady has poor cardio and striking volume. He notes Brady gassed against Belal Muhammad and relies solely on takedowns, which Burns' 80% takedown defense can neutralize. Despite concerns about Burns' age and coaching distractions, he sees value at +150 and picks Burns as a dog, but admits it's a rollercoaster and not a high-confidence play.

Daniel believes Brady is catching Burns at the perfect time, as Burns is 38 and coming off two losses (to Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena). He notes Brady's improved mindset after losing his undefeated record, and his strong performance against Kelvin Gastelum, where he showed heart and cardio. Daniel thinks Brady's physical strength and short, stocky frame will make him hard to submit, and that Brady can tire Burns out and potentially have success on the feet.

Brady is younger and should dictate the pace with wrestling and clinch work. Burns is 38 and on a two-fight losing streak, often gassing in later rounds. Brady can wear Burns down and finish in the third or fourth round. The only hesitation is that it's Brady's first five-round fight, but he is still favored.

Paul picks Gilbert Burns as a dog, taking a small poke on Burns by submission at +1800. He acknowledges Burns is likely washed but sees value in the prop given Burns' submission history and the possibility of catching Morales. Paul admits he doesn't expect to win but likes the long odds.

Paul acknowledges Burns' cardio issues and recent decline, noting he gassed against Jack Della Maddalena and seems to have lost his grappling edge. He sees Brady's path via takedowns and control, especially in a five-round fight where Burns' cardio is a bigger liability. However, he is hesitant because he has never been a Sean Brady fan and dislikes the -175 price. He ultimately picks Brady but with low confidence, calling it a 'gun to my head' pick.

The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Gilbert Burns. He cites the age difference (Burns is 38) and notes Brady has improved massively. He mentions Brady's wins over Kelvin Gastelum and Jake Matthews, and that he neutralized Craig Jones in grappling. He criticizes Burns' recent performance against JDM, arguing Burns didn't do enough. He believes Brady's size and strength will allow him to stall on the ground and win a slow-paced decision.

Angelo picks Natália Silva because she is very well-rounded, technical, and has power that lasts into the third round. He believes she is the better fighter and as long as she doesn't let Andrade bully her, she should win. He notes that Silva has beaten prospects and veterans alike.

Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He is high on Silva, noting her impressive performances and striking. He acknowledges Andrade is a tough test and has revived her career, but believes Silva is the much better striker and may even drop Andrade. Brady thinks the odds are a bit disrespectful to Andrade but still favors Silva.

Cody believes Silva's size, speed, and counter-punching will be too much for Andrade, who struggles at 125 lbs against longer fighters. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal issues but respects her toughness. He thinks Silva can win by decision or knockout, but does not like the -300 price. He picks Silva but is not betting the moneyline.

Daniel is high on Natália Silva, calling her one of the best prospects in women's MMA. He praises her movement, takedown defense, athleticism, and the fact that she paid her dues on the regional scene. He thinks Andrade's charging-forward style is a bad matchup against Silva's speed and accuracy. While he respects Andrade's evolution, he believes Silva is catching her at a great time and picks her to win.

Silva is a technical striker with excellent lateral movement and accuracy. Andrade is a power puncher who struggles with fighters who stick and move. Silva can keep the fight at range and potentially land a knockout. The pick is Silva by decision, with a sprinkle on Silva by KO if odds are favorable.

Paul sees Silva as faster, bigger, and more technical, with a counter-striking style that can neutralize Andrade's blitzes. He notes Andrade's recent losses and personal distractions (divorce, manager issues) but acknowledges her toughness. He believes Silva can win by decision or even knockout, but is wary of the -300 price. He leans Silva but does not love the moneyline.

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Jéssica Andrade. He praises Silva's range control and ability to fight on the back foot. He notes Andrade has been outstruck by lesser fighters like Erin Blanchfield and struggles at flyweight. He highlights Silva's 11-fight win streak and her dominant UFC wins over Viviane Araujo, Andrea Lee, and others. He believes Silva is young (27) and still improving.

Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he hits very hard, has good wrestling, and is on a four-fight knockout streak. However, he is hesitant because Kyle Nelson has been looking good lately and has power and toughness. He plans to have very little exposure on this fight if he bets.

Big Brady picks Steve Garcia to win by knockout in round one. He highlights Garcia's four-fight knockout streak and his dog mentality, but acknowledges Garcia gets dropped often. Brady thinks Garcia will get dropped but get back up and finish Nelson. He favors Garcia more as the fight goes into later rounds.

Cody picks Nelson on the moneyline, citing Garcia's poor chin and tendency to get dropped, while Nelson has improved cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes Garcia's wins are often against tired or compromised opponents, and that Nelson's pressure and pace can overwhelm Garcia. He sees value at plus money and is confident Nelson can win.

Daniel acknowledges Kyle Nelson's improved style but thinks Garcia's kill-or-be-killed pressure will force Nelson to fight, potentially bringing back his old issues. He admits he hasn't been good at predicting the new Kyle Nelson, but he picks Garcia to extend his knockout streak. He notes Garcia is a killer who either knocks you out or gets knocked out.

Garcia is on a four-fight KO streak and has awkward angles that could trouble Nelson. Nelson is also on a roll but Garcia's power is a threat. The under 1.5 rounds is the preferred bet, as Garcia tends to finish early. Garcia by first-round KO is the pick.

Paul likes the over 1.5 rounds at +140, believing Nelson's improved cardio and fight IQ will avoid an early knockout. He thinks Nelson can make it competitive and potentially win a decision. He is not confident in betting Garcia at nearly -200, so he leans Nelson but prefers the over prop.

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia over Kyle Nelson, citing a bias against Canadian men. He notes Garcia's weird look as an advantage and his training at Jackson Wink and Soul Focus. He mentions Garcia has beaten good opponents like Melquizael Costa and Saimon Oliveira, but was finished by Chase Hooper. He predicts a decision or KO win.

Angelo picks Cody Durden (referred to as Alexandre Costa) because he is a solid striker with real power, good takedown defense, and durability, while Matt Schnell has been in too many wars and his chin is failing. He believes Costa will blast Schnell's legs and crack him in the head, leading to a knockout. He notes that Schnell is not dangerous enough to put Costa away.

Big Brady picks Cody Durden to win by knockout. He notes Durden is stepping in on short notice but looked career-best in his last fight before getting caught. Brady believes Durden's striking will be the difference and that he just needs to land one clean shot. He warns about Schnell's dangerous grappling but thinks Durden will avoid the ground and finish the fight inside the distance.

Cody picks Schnell, arguing that Durden's short notice, weight cut issues, and lack of corner are major red flags. He notes Schnell's superior experience and cardio, but admits Durden's power and aggression could end it early. He sees value at +250 but is not highly confident.

Daniel is biased as a friend of Durden, but he believes Durden's power and Schnell's weak chin will be the deciding factor. He acknowledges Schnell is well-rounded and technical, but thinks Durden will eventually land a knockout. He notes that Schnell has been knocked out in recent fights and that Durden is aware of Schnell's chin. Despite the short notice, Daniel is confident Durden will get the win.

Paul is intrigued by Schnell at +250, noting Durden is taking the fight on a week's notice, moving up to 135 lbs, and may not have a coach. He acknowledges Schnell's chin issues but believes his experience and cardio advantage could pay off if he survives early. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and leans Schnell.

The MMA Guru picks Matt Schnell over Cody Durden. He calls Schnell the 'chiniest fighter in UFC history' but believes Alexandro Costa is explosive and powerful. He notes Schnell got wobbled by Sumudaerji and predicts Costa will put him away brutally in round one.

Angelo picks Yanal Ashmouz because he is the better fighter skill-for-skill, with technique everywhere, but he is hesitant because Trevor Peek is incredibly durable and has insane pressure. He notes that Yanal is still a dog and he has a bet on him, but he has buyer's remorse after watching Peek's toughness. He hopes Yanal doesn't break.

Big Brady picks Yanal Ashmouz as the underdog but says he wants nothing to do with betting on this fight. He describes it as a chaotic, back-and-forth war that likely goes to decision, with both guys having moments. Brady likes Ashmouz's ability to land big shots and mix in takedowns, but admits the fight could go either way.

Cody echoes Paul's sentiment, praising Peek's chin, heart, and relentless pressure. He notes Ashmouz's lack of grappling and tendency to get taken down, while Peek's wrestling has improved. He expects Peek to walk through Ashmouz's strikes and land a knockout.

Daniel is a fan of Trevor Peek's fighting style and believes Ashmouz is KO-or-bust. He criticizes Ashmouz's low volume and reliance on one big shot, and thinks Peek can outwork him to a decision or catch him. He notes that Ashmouz struggled when he couldn't get the knockout against Chris Duncan. Daniel sees multiple paths to victory for Peek.

Peek is durable, aggressive, and has never been finished. Ashmouz hits hard but may struggle to keep the fight at range. In a pocket exchange, Peek's power and chin could prevail. However, the host prefers to watch rather than bet heavily, as this fight reveals ceilings for both.

Paul is a fan of Peek's style and believes his durability, pressure, and power will overwhelm Ashmouz, who is more technical but lacks grappling and has shown vulnerability to pressure. He notes Ashmouz's poor takedown defense and tendency to fade. He picks Peek by KO.

The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz over Trevor Peek. He praises Ashmouz's power and notes he fought Chris Duncan with a broken arm and still went to a decision. He believes Peek is too hittable and that Ashmouz is primed to land big KO blows. He predicts a TKO win for Ashmouz, though he admits he will be rooting for Peek.

Angelo picks Chris Padilla as an underdog because he is well-rounded, explosive, and composed, with multiple ways to win. He notes that Rong Zhu's wins are on the regional scene and he headhunts, while Chris can scramble and snatch submissions. He plans to wait for prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.

Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision. He notes Zhu is a big favorite at -265 and is improving at 24 years old. Brady thinks Zhu is the much better striker and his takedown defense is improving. He acknowledges Padilla can wrestle but lacks top control, so he expects Zhu to keep it on the feet and win a decision.

Cody picks Padilla, arguing that Zhu's competition on Road to UFC is weak and he has been taken down by lesser fighters. He notes Padilla's wrestling and submission skills, and believes he can neutralize Zhu's striking. He sees the -220 line on Zhu as too wide and takes the plus money.

Daniel thinks Rong Zhu has matured since his first UFC stint and is now ready. He believes Zhu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and that his volume, calf kicks, and athleticism will overwhelm Padilla. He expects Zhu to stuff takedowns and chip away at Padilla, possibly winning a decision.

Rong Zhu is a dangerous striker with improved takedown defense and get-ups. Padilla is a power puncher who relies on grappling, but Rong Zhu should nullify that and find a finish within two rounds. The host sees a more mature version of Rong Zhu now.

Paul is interested in Padilla's submission prop at +600, noting his recent submission wins and wrestling advantage. He believes Padilla can take Zhu down and control him, as Zhu has been taken down by lesser competition. He sees value at plus money and picks Padilla as an underdog.

The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Chris Padilla. He criticizes Padilla's recent losses and long career, while praising Zhu's youth (24), activity, and evolution as a fighter. He notes Zhu has been fighting higher-level competition and is on a streak since being cut from the UFC. He expects Zhu to have a good performance.

Angelo is extremely confident Isaac Dulgarian wins due to his nasty wrestling and aggressive style, but he warns there is no betting value at minus 3000 odds. He advises against including Isaac in parlays because the risk is not worth the minimal payout. He notes that Isaac was screwed in his last fight and should have won.

Big Brady picks Isaac Dulgarian to win by first-round knockout. He calls Dulgarian the biggest favorite in UFC history at -3000 and expects a quick finish. Brady predicts Dulgarian will get a takedown within 10-15 seconds, secure a dominant position, and either submit or pound out Marotte before the half-round mark.

Cody is very confident Dulgarian will win, calling Marotte the worst in the division and noting Dulgarian's wrestling and power. He expects a first-round finish and suggests betting under 1.5 rounds or Dulgarian by first-round TKO. He is not betting the moneyline due to the price.

Daniel views this as a massive mismatch. He notes that Marotte's last win was against a journeyman with a losing record, and that Marotte was easily taken down by that fighter. He believes Dulgarian, coming off his first loss, will be more dangerous and will run through Marotte. He expects a finish.

Dulgarian is a massive favorite and expected to win easily, likely in the first round by KO or submission. Marotte is outmatched. The host does not spend time on this fight but suggests betting the round 1 prop if available at -200 or better.

Paul acknowledges Dulgarian's wrestling and power, but is wary of the -3000 price. He notes Marotte is a low-level opponent who has been finished quickly. He picks Dulgarian but will not bet at that price.

The MMA Guru picks Isaac Dulgarian confidently, noting he is a massive favorite. He believes Dulgarian was robbed against Christian Rodriguez and that his grappling is elite. He dismisses Brendon Marotte as a New England Cartel fighter who is 'trash' and lost to Terrence McKinney. He predicts Dulgarian will ragdoll and finish Marotte in the first round.

Angelo picks Felipe dos Santos because he is a dangerous, aggressive fighter who is good everywhere, and he believes André Lima is overhyped after beating a weak opponent and winning by a bite. He notes that Felipe is a plus 165 underdog and he placed a half-unit bet when the odds opened at even money. He does not plan to double down despite the better odds.

Big Brady picks Felipe dos Santos as the underdog to win by decision. He criticizes André Lima as a cheater and unimpressive, noting his close fights and split decision against Mitch Raposo. Brady believes dos Santos will make it a dogfight with volume advantage and sees a split decision. He also mentions a point deduction prop for Lima's cheating.

Cody picks dos Santos, arguing that Lima's cardio is suspect and he has missed weight multiple times. He notes dos Santos' performance against Manel Kape and his ability to get up from takedowns. He sees value at plus money and expects dos Santos to win.

Daniel likes Lima's striking and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks he is the better fighter. He acknowledges concerns about Lima's cardio but isn't convinced they're valid. He notes that dos Santos leaves openings for body shots, calf kicks, and takedowns. He picks Lima to win, though he's not sure if it will be a finish.

Dos Santos is an aggressive striker with a dangerous BJJ game, training with Charles Oliveira. Lima is undefeated but has shown defensive grappling vulnerabilities and has slowed in fights. Dos Santos can mix takedowns and pressure, potentially exposing Lima's back for a submission. The underdog pick is supported by a submission prop at +1300.

Paul likes dos Santos at plus money, citing his striking volume and cardio advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues and weight misses, while dos Santos has proven he can go three rounds and land significant strikes. He believes dos Santos can win by decision or late finish.

The MMA Guru picks Felipe dos Santos as an underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes dos Santos is gritty, young (23), and difficult to put away, as seen in his fight with Manel Kape. He worries about André Lima's split decision win over Mitch Raposo, who missed weight and stepped in on short notice. He believes if the fight gets scrappy, dos Santos will take over.

Angelo picks Yi Zha as an underdog because he is a powerful grappler who averages almost five takedowns per fight and is always looking for submissions. He believes Yi can find success even if Gabriel Santos gets the first takedown, and that Yi's grappling is good enough to stay safe and make something happen. He notes that Yi is plus 214 and may have value in prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.

Big Brady picks Gabriel Santos to win by decision. He is very high on Santos despite his 0-2 UFC record, believing he was robbed against Murphy. Brady thinks Santos is better everywhere: better striker, and his BJJ black belt should neutralize Yi Zha's grappling. He notes Yi Zha's record is misleading and that Santos is much better than his record indicates.

Cody agrees with Paul, citing Santos' strong wrestling and striking. He notes Zha's takedown defense is poor and Santos has fought tougher competition. He expects Santos to neutralize Zha and win a decision or get a finish.

Daniel is a big fan of Santos's exciting style but acknowledges his defensive flaws. He criticizes Yi Zha's padded record and boring wrestling style. He thinks Santos's volume, pressure, and activity off his back will overwhelm Zha, and that Zha's takedowns won't be enough to win. He expects Santos to get his first UFC win.

Santos is the better mixed martial artist despite being 0-2 in the UFC. He has slick BJJ and striking, and should be able to handle Yi Zha's pressure and wrestling. Yi Zha is aggressive but leaves openings. Santos can reverse positions and win on the feet. The under 2.5 rounds at plus money is also favored due to both fighters' pace.

Paul picks Santos, noting his wrestling and striking are superior to Zha's. He believes Santos can take Zha down and control him, and has a better plan B if the wrestling fails. He acknowledges Santos' cardio concerns but thinks he can win two of three rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Santos over Yi Zha. He dismisses Yi Zha's record as inflated from the Road to UFC show, noting that anyone good has beaten him. He praises Santos for taking Lerone Murphy to a split decision on short notice and for his training at a good gym. He notes Santos is on a two-fight losing streak but believes this is his last chance and he will win.

Angelo picks Jaqueline Amorim because she is a multiple-time world champion in both gi and no-gi grappling, has one-punch knockout power, and is extremely dangerous on the ground. He believes Vanessa Demopoulos, despite her cardio and forward pressure, will struggle with Amorim's grappling and power. He thinks Amorim can win by submission or knockout, and notes that the under 2.5 rounds is plus money.

Big Brady picks Jaqueline Amorim to win by first-round submission. He is confident Amorim wins but warns about corrupt judges favoring Demopoulos and Amorim's cardio issues. Brady believes Amorim is the better grappler and will get takedowns, possibly submitting Demopoulos. He picks submission to avoid judges' interference.

Cody picks Demopoulos, arguing that Amorim's only path is takedowns and top control, but Demopoulos has good BJJ and cardio. He notes Demopoulos' toughness and ability to win close decisions. He sees value at plus money.

Daniel thinks Amorim's takedowns and top control will be the key. He notes Demopoulos's poor takedown defense (30%) and believes Amorim can grind out a decision. He doesn't expect a submission because Demopoulos is tough and a black belt. He acknowledges the 'first-round-or-bust' narrative but thinks Amorim can win two rounds with grappling.

Amorim is the best BJJ opponent Demopoulos has faced, but Demopoulos has never been finished and has shown improved striking. Amorim's wrestling is weak, often pulling guard. If Demopoulos can keep it standing, she has a chance. The pick is Amorim by submission, but with low confidence; the fight is more of a pass or a play on the over 2.5 rounds.

Paul picks Demopoulos, citing her durability, cardio, and pressure. He notes Amorim's poor striking and wrestling, and that Demopoulos has never been finished. He believes Demopoulos can win by decision or even submission, and sees value at plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Jaqueline Amorim despite sarcastically noting that Vanessa Demopoulos often gets favorable decisions. He praises Amorim's finishing ability, citing her armbar win over Cory McKenna and third-round finish of Monserrat Ruiz. He acknowledges Amorim's loss to Sam Hughes but attributes it to lack of strength to finish a rear-naked choke. He believes Amorim is improving on the feet and training at American Top Team gives her an edge.

Angelo picks Andre Petroski because he is the better wrestler with good takedowns and power, and if he sticks to his wrestling he should win. He notes that Dylan Budka is also a grappler but not as good a striker, and Andre's path to victory is straightforward. However, he is hesitant to bet at the current odds of nearly 3-to-1, preferring closer to 1.5-to-1.

Big Brady picks Andre Petroski to win by second-round submission. He believes Petroski has a striking advantage and is the much better grappler, with slick BJJ and multiple submissions. He notes that Budka has been submitted before and that Petroski's cardio looked improved in his last fight. Brady sees many avenues for Petroski to win, including knockout or decision, but leans submission.

Cody picks Petroski, citing his superior wrestling and BJJ, and Budka's lack of improvement. He notes Budka's gym is low-level and he has not faced good competition. He expects Petroski to win by submission or decision.

Daniel is not confident in this pick. He calls both fighters boring wrestlers but notes that when two wrestlers fight, it often becomes a striking match. He picks Petroski by default due to UFC experience, but admits he doesn't trust Petroski and hasn't seen enough from Budka.

Petroski is a superior wrestler and BJJ specialist who should dominate Budka on the ground. Budka is more of a bully with size than a technical fighter, and his cardio is suspect. Petroski can dictate the pace and likely wins easily, possibly by submission. Budka's only path is a Hail Mary KO.

Paul picks Petroski, noting his wrestling and BJJ advantage over Budka, who has poor striking and cardio. He believes Petroski can take Budka down and control him, and has shown ability to finish. He is not confident in the price but sees it as a good matchup.

The MMA Guru picks Andre Petroski but expresses concern about his chin. He heavily criticizes Dylan Budka, calling him awful at fighting and accusing him of faking wrestling credentials. He believes Petroski has better MMA grappling and stand-up, but worries about his 'diabolical chin' after being KO'd by a hip in his last fight.

Angelo picks Nathan Fletcher because he is a well-rounded fighter with solid grappling and striking, and he believes Nathan can land cleaner strikes and take the fight to the ground if needed. He notes that Žygimantas is chinny and hitable, and can be taken down due to his aggressive style. However, he is not betting on this fight due to medical issues and uncertainty.

Big Brady picks Žygimantas Ramaška to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Ramaška is a striker with knockout power, while Fletcher is a grappler who will look for takedowns. Brady believes Ramaška has more paths to victory, including the knockout threat and doing more damage overall, and that Fletcher has been knocked out before. He acknowledges Fletcher's path via takedowns and top control but favors Ramaška's striking and power.

Cody picks Fletcher, citing his wrestling advantage and Ramaška's vulnerability to grapplers. He notes Fletcher's cardio is a concern but believes he can get takedowns and control the fight. He is not highly confident but sees value.

Daniel admits he couldn't watch their Ultimate Fighter fights due to playback errors, so his analysis is limited. He heard Ramaška is exciting but leaves openings, while Fletcher is more cautious. He picks Fletcher again (as he did when the fight was first booked), but warns not to trust his pick.

Fletcher's grappling is expected to be too much for Ramaška, who has questionable takedown defense. Fletcher trains with Paddy Pimblett and has a strong BJJ game, likely securing a submission within a round and a half. However, there is some hesitation due to Fletcher's recent illness, so the bet size is reduced compared to the original play.

Paul picks Fletcher, believing his wrestling and grappling can neutralize Ramaška's striking. He notes Ramaška's losses come against wrestlers, and Fletcher has a path via takedowns and control. He is hesitant due to Fletcher's recent illness and cardio concerns.

The MMA Guru picks Žygimantas Ramaška over Nathan Fletcher. He notes that Fletcher is a bantamweight moving up to featherweight, which he dislikes because Fletcher will be the smaller man. He believes Ramaška's length and range will keep Fletcher at bay, similar to how Dominick Wooding handled him. He predicts a late-round TKO or decision for Ramaška.