UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till ·
Jul 26, 2020 ·
Heavyweight ·
Completed
Career Averages - Fabrício Werdum
3.59
SLpM
52.0%
Str. Acc.
2.64
SApM
55.0%
Str. Def.
1.75
TD Avg
31.0%
TD Acc.
31.0%
TD Def.
1.2
Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alexander Gustafsson
4.03
SLpM
40.0%
Str. Acc.
3.53
SApM
51.0%
Str. Def.
1.53
TD Avg
39.0%
TD Acc.
83.0%
TD Def.
0.4
Sub. Avg
Fabrício Werdum - Fight History
WIN
vs
Alexander Gustafsson
Submission (armbar)
R1
2:30
·
UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till ·
Jul 26, 2020
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrício Werdum | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrício Werdum | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
BI
Big Brady
Expert
Hesitant
picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson
Big Brady picks Gustafsson based on better cardio, speed, and striking advantage. He is concerned about Werdum's size and potential takedowns, but notes Gustafsson has good takedown defense. He calls the fight weird and says the line is too wide to parlay, predicting a decision win for Gustafsson.
Gustafsson by decision
"I think mustafson is going to win this fight based off of you know he's going to have the better cardio he's going to be the faster fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi
Expert
Confident
picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum
Daniel is confident in Werdum as a plus-270 underdog. He argues the line is off because Gustafsson looked poor in his last two fights and retired after the Anthony Smith loss. He believes Werdum's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, especially if the fight gets dirty and grimy. He notes Werdum had a full camp this time unlike his last fight.
plus 270 underdog, dog or pass fight
"i think this line is off man... where doom should not be plus 270 if you got in on that plus 300 i think that's the way to go... i'm going word with what we're doing for the upset i …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night
Expert
Lean
picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson
Gustafsson has the striking advantage and good takedown defense, but there are too many question marks about his mental state after retirement and his layoff. Werdum looked poor against Oleynik and is 42. The under 2.5 rounds is attractive, but the moneyline is a pass due to uncertainty.
Under 2.5 rounds (-125)
"i like assassin here not enough to parlay him or bet him to be honest"
TH
The MMA Guru
Expert
Confident
picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Gustafsson to win by TKO, despite concerns about Gustafsson looking overweight and happy in interviews. He believes Gustafsson's speed and reach advantage will be too much for Werdum, who looked deflated after his USADA suspension. He predicts an early TKO.
TKO early
"I think Gustiffson wins brutally by TKO."
LOSS
vs
Aleksei Oleinik
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28)
R3
5:00
·
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje ·
May 09, 2020
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksei Oleinik | 0 | 94 of 183 | 51% | 149 of 241 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:53 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 53 of 83 | 63% | 70 of 101 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 1 | 3:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksei Oleinik | 0 | 54 of 94 | 57% | 71 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 28 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Aleksei Oleinik | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 40 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 29 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 | |
| 3 | Aleksei Oleinik | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 38 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:26 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 13 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 1 | 2:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksei Oleinik | 94 of 183 | 51% | 79 of 167 | 10 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 72 of 149 | 22 of 33 | 0 of 1 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 53 of 83 | 63% | 27 of 52 | 16 of 21 | 10 of 10 | 34 of 60 | 16 of 20 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksei Oleinik | 54 of 94 | 57% | 47 of 86 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 39 of 76 | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 25 of 37 | 67% | 14 of 24 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 26 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Aleksei Oleinik | 26 of 63 | 41% | 21 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 53 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 24 of 38 | 63% | 12 of 23 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Aleksei Oleinik | 14 of 26 | 53% | 11 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
BI
Big Brady
Expert
Confident
picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum
Big Brady picks Fabricio Werdum, citing a favorable stylistic matchup due to Werdum's superior submission game and Oleinik's poor ground game. He expects Werdum to take Oleinik down early and finish with ground and pound or submission, likely in the first round. He notes the line at minus 320 is steep but believes it's a good matchup.
Werdum by first round TKO/submission; fight ends inside first round
"I like Verdoom here. Um, due to the fact that I think it's a good, uh, stylistic match up for him."
DA
Daniel Levi
Expert
Confident
picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum
Daniel Levi picks Fabricio Werdum, stating he is the better striker and has the ground game to handle Oleinik's submissions. He notes Oleinik is reckless and makes mistakes, and that Werdum's improved striking and Thai clinch will be key. Levi expects Werdum to capitalize on Oleinik's errors and win inside the distance.
Werdum inside the distance
"I'm actually gonna go with Fabricio Vacaville or doom here to win this fight inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night
Expert
Hesitant
picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum
Matt picks Werdum but thinks the -300 line is too wide due to Werdum's long layoff and age. He believes Werdum has the advantage on the feet and can finish Oleinik in the second round, but he is hesitant to bet at the current price. He would consider a bet if the line drops to -250.
Werdum by second-round TKO, fight doesn't go to decision (-250)
"I'm gonna pick over doom to win here but that line is a little bit too wide for me"
LOSS
vs
Alexander Volkov
KO (punches)
R4
1:38
·
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov ·
Mar 17, 2018
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 48 of 88 | 54% | 83 of 130 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 6:40 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 1 | 48 of 90 | 53% | 96 of 144 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 37 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 42 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 31 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 0:24 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 1 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 48 of 88 | 54% | 30 of 66 | 12 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 45 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 48 of 90 | 53% | 37 of 75 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 32 of 71 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 20 of 37 | 54% | 17 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 32 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 15 of 28 | 53% | 10 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 14 of 24 | 58% | 6 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 12 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 10 of 15 | 66% | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 13 of 32 | 40% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkov | 4 of 12 | 33% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 17 of 21 | 80% | 15 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogFabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Volkov
Round 1
English referee Marc Goddard will oversee tonight's heavyweight main event, scheduled for five rounds. Straight out of the gate, Werdum comes flying at Volkov with a jumping side-kick that doesn't even come close and leaves the Russian shrugging. Werdum soon changes levels, however, and it's only a matter of seconds before Volkov finds himself on the canvas at the base of the fence. Werdum makes things uncomfortable for "Drago" with a can opener, then releases to land a couple right hands as he works from Volkov's closed guard. Volkov opens his guard to try and stand, but Werdum keeps him under control on the ground. Werdum stands to get some more leverage on his punches, slamming Volkov with three or four solid right hands before kneeling again. Volkov gets his left arm up to block Werdum's next wave of ground-and-pound, now with two minutes remaining in round one. Volkov jumps back to his feet with 90 seconds left, and he immediately punishes Werdum with an uppercut, now a clinch knee, now punches to the body. Werdum eats the strikes well, then catches Volkov coming forward with a straight left hand. Volkov trips Werdum to the floor but doesn't want to come down and play in the BJJ wiz's guard. Werdum throws a jumping knee and drops to his back, trying to lure Volkov to the ground. Instead, referee Goddard orders Werdum back to his feet, and "Vai Cavalo" simply trips Volkov to the ground instead.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Josh Stillman scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Round 2
Volkov blocks a takedown attempt from Werdum and pushes the Brazilian against the fence, landing an uppercut to the body of the former champion. Werdum reverses to the outside but can't hold the massive Russian in place, and now the big men come back to the middle of the cage. Werdum grabs for a single-leg but gets underhooked and pushed away by the rangy Volkov. "Drago" catches a kick and chops out Werdum's lead leg, then tells him to stand back up. Werdum gets up and is met by a short left hand, but his next single-leg attempt yields an easy takedown. Now it's Werdum working from Volkov's closed guard with two minutes on the clock. Again, Werdum uses a can opener to tee up Volkov's head for some ground-and-pound. Werdum comes over the top with a couple good elbows, but Volkov is doing well to tie up and negate the space. Werdum gets to half guard and leans across Volkov's body to try a kimura, but he can't get it before the horn. One of Werdum's elbows has opened up a nasty cut on the forehead of Volkov, who returns to his corner at the end of the round with his forehead covered in blood.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Josh Stillman scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Round 3
Volkov stings Werdum with a plunging right hand, forcing the Brazilian to shoot for a takedown. Volkov stuffs the shot and comes out on top, but "Vai Cavalo" reverses immediately and takes top position. Volkov works back to his feet quickly, then has to fend off Werdum as the ex-champ tries to pull guard. Referee Goddard appears to issue a warning to Volkov for grabbing the inside of Werdum's gloves. Werdum is sporting a significant cut and mouse underneath his right eye, and Volkov is only making things worse with his punches. Two minutes remain in round two as Werdum shoots, then pulls guard. Volkov tries to sit on top of Werdum and possibly try and armbar, but Werdum slickly slips out and tries to take the Russian's back. Volkov peels Werdum off before he can establish back-mount, and the big men come back to their feet. Volkov looks to be taking charge of this fight, particularly on the feet, where's marching Werdum around the cage with jabs and kicks.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Volkov
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Volkov
Josh Stillman scores the round 10-9 Volkov
Round 4
Werdum pulls guard and tries to take Volkov's back in the ensuing scramble. Instead, Volkov sets up in Werdum's closed guard, where Werdum grabs hold of the Russian's wrists. "Drago" pulls his hands back and socks Werdum in the face as referee Goddard calls for action on the ground. With 3:40 on the clock, Volkov stands and asks Werdum to do the same. Werdum gets up and starts swinging wildly; Volkov makes him pay with a few well-placed uppercuts that put the Brazilian on rubber legs. Werdum hits the ground near the fence, dazed, and Volkov finishes the job with a pair of punches that put "Vai Cavalo" out cold. After dropping the first few rounds, Alexander Volkov storms back to knock out former UFC heavyweight champ Fabricio Werdum in the fourth round.
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Fabricio Werdum via KO (Punches) R4 1:38
Round 1
English referee Marc Goddard will oversee tonight's heavyweight main event, scheduled for five rounds. Straight out of the gate, Werdum comes flying at Volkov with a jumping side-kick that doesn't even come close and leaves the Russian shrugging. Werdum soon changes levels, however, and it's only a matter of seconds before Volkov finds himself on the canvas at the base of the fence. Werdum makes things uncomfortable for "Drago" with a can opener, then releases to land a couple right hands as he works from Volkov's closed guard. Volkov opens his guard to try and stand, but Werdum keeps him under control on the ground. Werdum stands to get some more leverage on his punches, slamming Volkov with three or four solid right hands before kneeling again. Volkov gets his left arm up to block Werdum's next wave of ground-and-pound, now with two minutes remaining in round one. Volkov jumps back to his feet with 90 seconds left, and he immediately punishes Werdum with an uppercut, now a clinch knee, now punches to the body. Werdum eats the strikes well, then catches Volkov coming forward with a straight left hand. Volkov trips Werdum to the floor but doesn't want to come down and play in the BJJ wiz's guard. Werdum throws a jumping knee and drops to his back, trying to lure Volkov to the ground. Instead, referee Goddard orders Werdum back to his feet, and "Vai Cavalo" simply trips Volkov to the ground instead.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Josh Stillman scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Round 2
Volkov blocks a takedown attempt from Werdum and pushes the Brazilian against the fence, landing an uppercut to the body of the former champion. Werdum reverses to the outside but can't hold the massive Russian in place, and now the big men come back to the middle of the cage. Werdum grabs for a single-leg but gets underhooked and pushed away by the rangy Volkov. "Drago" catches a kick and chops out Werdum's lead leg, then tells him to stand back up. Werdum gets up and is met by a short left hand, but his next single-leg attempt yields an easy takedown. Now it's Werdum working from Volkov's closed guard with two minutes on the clock. Again, Werdum uses a can opener to tee up Volkov's head for some ground-and-pound. Werdum comes over the top with a couple good elbows, but Volkov is doing well to tie up and negate the space. Werdum gets to half guard and leans across Volkov's body to try a kimura, but he can't get it before the horn. One of Werdum's elbows has opened up a nasty cut on the forehead of Volkov, who returns to his corner at the end of the round with his forehead covered in blood.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Josh Stillman scores the round 10-9 Werdum
Round 3
Volkov stings Werdum with a plunging right hand, forcing the Brazilian to shoot for a takedown. Volkov stuffs the shot and comes out on top, but "Vai Cavalo" reverses immediately and takes top position. Volkov works back to his feet quickly, then has to fend off Werdum as the ex-champ tries to pull guard. Referee Goddard appears to issue a warning to Volkov for grabbing the inside of Werdum's gloves. Werdum is sporting a significant cut and mouse underneath his right eye, and Volkov is only making things worse with his punches. Two minutes remain in round two as Werdum shoots, then pulls guard. Volkov tries to sit on top of Werdum and possibly try and armbar, but Werdum slickly slips out and tries to take the Russian's back. Volkov peels Werdum off before he can establish back-mount, and the big men come back to their feet. Volkov looks to be taking charge of this fight, particularly on the feet, where's marching Werdum around the cage with jabs and kicks.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Volkov
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Volkov
Josh Stillman scores the round 10-9 Volkov
Round 4
Werdum pulls guard and tries to take Volkov's back in the ensuing scramble. Instead, Volkov sets up in Werdum's closed guard, where Werdum grabs hold of the Russian's wrists. "Drago" pulls his hands back and socks Werdum in the face as referee Goddard calls for action on the ground. With 3:40 on the clock, Volkov stands and asks Werdum to do the same. Werdum gets up and starts swinging wildly; Volkov makes him pay with a few well-placed uppercuts that put the Brazilian on rubber legs. Werdum hits the ground near the fence, dazed, and Volkov finishes the job with a pair of punches that put "Vai Cavalo" out cold. After dropping the first few rounds, Alexander Volkov storms back to knock out former UFC heavyweight champ Fabricio Werdum in the fourth round.
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Fabricio Werdum via KO (Punches) R4 1:38
WIN
vs
Marcin Tybura
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46)
R5
5:00
·
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura ·
Nov 19, 2017
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 155 of 265 | 58% | 179 of 290 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 4:01 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 127 of 257 | 49% | 137 of 269 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 32 of 54 | 59% | 32 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 31 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 45 of 62 | 72% | 46 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 42 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 5 | Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 38 of 73 | 52% | 38 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 42 of 94 | 44% | 43 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrício Werdum | 155 of 265 | 58% | 104 of 209 | 32 of 35 | 19 of 21 | 137 of 239 | 15 of 23 | 3 of 3 |
| Marcin Tybura | 127 of 257 | 49% | 83 of 202 | 13 of 20 | 31 of 35 | 118 of 242 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrício Werdum | 20 of 41 | 48% | 13 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 17 of 37 | 45% | 8 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 16 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Fabrício Werdum | 32 of 54 | 59% | 19 of 41 | 8 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 28 of 50 | 56% | 17 of 36 | 4 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 25 of 44 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Fabrício Werdum | 45 of 62 | 72% | 31 of 46 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 39 of 53 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 26 of 49 | 53% | 16 of 36 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 9 | 24 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Fabrício Werdum | 20 of 35 | 57% | 15 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 25 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Marcin Tybura | 14 of 27 | 51% | 9 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 5 | Fabrício Werdum | 38 of 73 | 52% | 26 of 60 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 42 of 94 | 44% | 33 of 84 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 41 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
WIN
vs
Walt Harris
Submission (armbar)
R1
1:05
·
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee ·
Oct 07, 2017
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Walt Harris | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Walt Harris | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Walt Harris | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrício Werdum | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Walt Harris | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
LOSS
vs
Alistair Overeem
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–28, 29–28)
R3
5:00
·
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker ·
Jul 08, 2017
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alistair Overeem | 1 | 49 of 115 | 42% | 107 of 176 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 21 of 38 | 55% | 29 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alistair Overeem | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 12 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Alistair Overeem | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 23 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 16 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 3 | Alistair Overeem | 1 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 72 of 97 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alistair Overeem | 49 of 115 | 42% | 28 of 84 | 9 of 17 | 12 of 14 | 37 of 94 | 5 of 11 | 7 of 10 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 21 of 38 | 55% | 15 of 32 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alistair Overeem | 12 of 30 | 40% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alistair Overeem | 13 of 39 | 33% | 6 of 28 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 12 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 10 of 16 | 62% | 6 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alistair Overeem | 24 of 46 | 52% | 20 of 40 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 29 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 9 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
WIN
vs
Travis Browne
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 30–27)
R3
5:00
·
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem ·
Sep 10, 2016
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrício Werdum | 1 | 84 of 142 | 59% | 107 of 166 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Travis Browne | 0 | 37 of 143 | 25% | 38 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrício Werdum | 1 | 37 of 59 | 62% | 60 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Travis Browne | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Travis Browne | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 12 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Travis Browne | 0 | 14 of 71 | 19% | 14 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrício Werdum | 84 of 142 | 59% | 41 of 91 | 24 of 32 | 19 of 19 | 66 of 123 | 10 of 10 | 8 of 9 |
| Travis Browne | 37 of 143 | 25% | 27 of 123 | 4 of 11 | 6 of 9 | 35 of 140 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrício Werdum | 37 of 59 | 62% | 22 of 39 | 8 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 42 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 9 |
| Travis Browne | 12 of 30 | 40% | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Fabrício Werdum | 19 of 39 | 48% | 7 of 25 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Travis Browne | 11 of 42 | 26% | 6 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Fabrício Werdum | 28 of 44 | 63% | 12 of 27 | 8 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 26 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Travis Browne | 14 of 71 | 19% | 12 of 62 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 14 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
LOSS
vs
Stipe Miocic
KO (punch)
R1
2:47
·
UFC 198: Werdum vs. Miocic ·
May 14, 2016
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stipe Miocic | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 1 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stipe Miocic | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 1 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stipe Miocic | 15 of 33 | 45% | 5 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 20 of 31 | 64% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 9 | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stipe Miocic | 15 of 33 | 45% | 5 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Fabrício Werdum | 20 of 31 | 64% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 9 | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Alexander Gustafsson - Fight History
LOSS
vs
Nikita Krylov
KO (punches)
R1
1:07
·
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall ·
Jul 23, 2022
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 2 | 26 of 44 | 59% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 2 | 26 of 44 | 59% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 26 of 44 | 59% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 26 of 44 | 59% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
AN
Angelo Bodetti
Expert
Hesitant
picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov
Angelo picks Nikita Krylov but is hesitant due to Gustafsson's two-year layoff and three-fight losing streak. He notes Krylov is well-rounded and has a good chin, but questions his fight IQ after the Paul Craig loss. He says the odds favoring Krylov are surprising and calls it a no-bet situation, expecting Gustafsson to look older and slower.
no bet
"nikita is the pick i would love if alexander augustine looked great though but i just don't see that happening"
BI
Big Brady
Expert
Hesitant
picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov
Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by finish (ground and pound or submission in round 2). He is hesitant due to question marks about Gustafsson's layoff and motivation. He notes Gustafsson hasn't won in five years and hasn't fought in two years. Krylov is more active and dangerous, but if Gustafsson shows up motivated, it's a different fight.
Krylov by finish in round 2
"give me krill off for those reasons give me krill off to win i will say like second round uh grounded pound or second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic
Expert
Lean
picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson
Cody leans towards Alexander Gustafsson, citing that his losses are to top competition and he may have recaptured motivation after a two-year layoff. He notes Krylov has durability issues and tends to fade in later rounds. Cody thinks Gustafsson can use his mobility and grappling to neutralize Krylov and win a decision. He acknowledges there are many red flags but sees value in the underdog.
under 90.5 fantasy score for Krylov on PrizePicks
"i would classify it as a dogger pass so ever so slightly i'm i'm just going to jump into the unknown and go with gustafsson"
DA
Daniel Levi
Expert
Confident
picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov
Daniel Levi confidently picks Nikita Krylov, arguing that Gustafsson is past his prime and has already retired once, saying he didn't have what it takes anymore. He notes that Krylov is only 30 and entering his prime, with a well-rounded game and a Kyokushin karate background. Levi acknowledges Krylov's occasional bonehead mistakes but believes he will outwork Gustafsson. He also mentions that he likes fading washed-up fighters and that Krylov is a motivated underdog in this spot.
Mentions he is looking to bet Krylov, implying a betting interest.
"i think nikita krillov is the guy who's been watching alexander gustafson his entire career and this is like a big motivating fight for him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night
Expert
Hesitant
picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson
Gustafsson looks in phenomenal shape and has a big skill advantage over Krylov. His takedown defense is 83%. Krylov's wins are over lesser competition. If Gustafsson is even 70% of his peak, he wins handily. However, motivation is a question mark, so I'm passing on betting but predicting Gustafsson.
"I am going to make that switch I am going to go on the Customs inside"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy
Expert
Lean
picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson
Paul picks Alexander Gustafsson at plus money, calling minus 200 on Krylov ridiculous. He notes Gustafsson has looked horrible recently but his losses are to elite fighters. Paul admits he doesn't have the courage to bet Gustafsson confidently and will wait for weigh-ins. He says he won't bet money on it.
"i'll pick gustafson for the purposes of the show because it's plus money and i think minus 200 on krylov is is kind of ridiculous"
TH
The MMA Guru
Expert
Confident
picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov to win by submission in the first or second round. He questions Gustafsson's reasons for returning and notes Krylov is underrated. Krylov put a pace on Ankalaev and has great stand-up. Gustafsson has poor ground game and has been submitted when taken down. Krylov will take him down and secure a submission.
first or second round submission
"i'm gonna swipe with nikita krylov getting this one done against alexander gustafsson second round first round rooney choke submission"
LOSS
vs
Fabrício Werdum
Submission (armbar)
R1
2:30
·
UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till ·
Jul 26, 2020
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrício Werdum | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrício Werdum | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fabrício Werdum | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
BI
Big Brady
Expert
Hesitant
picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson
Big Brady picks Gustafsson based on better cardio, speed, and striking advantage. He is concerned about Werdum's size and potential takedowns, but notes Gustafsson has good takedown defense. He calls the fight weird and says the line is too wide to parlay, predicting a decision win for Gustafsson.
Gustafsson by decision
"I think mustafson is going to win this fight based off of you know he's going to have the better cardio he's going to be the faster fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi
Expert
Confident
picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum
Daniel is confident in Werdum as a plus-270 underdog. He argues the line is off because Gustafsson looked poor in his last two fights and retired after the Anthony Smith loss. He believes Werdum's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, especially if the fight gets dirty and grimy. He notes Werdum had a full camp this time unlike his last fight.
plus 270 underdog, dog or pass fight
"i think this line is off man... where doom should not be plus 270 if you got in on that plus 300 i think that's the way to go... i'm going word with what we're doing for the upset i …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night
Expert
Lean
picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson
Gustafsson has the striking advantage and good takedown defense, but there are too many question marks about his mental state after retirement and his layoff. Werdum looked poor against Oleynik and is 42. The under 2.5 rounds is attractive, but the moneyline is a pass due to uncertainty.
Under 2.5 rounds (-125)
"i like assassin here not enough to parlay him or bet him to be honest"
TH
The MMA Guru
Expert
Confident
picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Gustafsson to win by TKO, despite concerns about Gustafsson looking overweight and happy in interviews. He believes Gustafsson's speed and reach advantage will be too much for Werdum, who looked deflated after his USADA suspension. He predicts an early TKO.
TKO early
"I think Gustiffson wins brutally by TKO."
LOSS
vs
Anthony Smith
Submission (rear-naked choke)
R4
2:38
·
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith ·
Jun 01, 2019
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 72 of 151 | 47% | 73 of 152 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 49 of 104 | 47% | 51 of 107 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 8 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Anthony Smith | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Anthony Smith | 0 | 38 of 71 | 53% | 39 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Anthony Smith | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 72 of 151 | 47% | 26 of 79 | 8 of 21 | 38 of 51 | 70 of 147 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 49 of 104 | 47% | 19 of 62 | 11 of 19 | 19 of 23 | 44 of 98 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 8 of 27 | 29% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 8 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 13 of 26 | 50% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Anthony Smith | 19 of 39 | 48% | 5 of 18 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 16 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 13 of 34 | 38% | 6 of 23 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Anthony Smith | 38 of 71 | 53% | 18 of 42 | 5 of 10 | 15 of 19 | 36 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 15 of 32 | 46% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Anthony Smith | 7 of 14 | 50% | 2 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
LOSS
vs
Jon Jones
TKO (punches)
R3
2:02
·
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 ·
Dec 29, 2018
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 0 | 59 of 102 | 57% | 63 of 106 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 22 of 83 | 26% | 24 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 20 of 37 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 27 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 8 of 48 | 16% | 8 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 16 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones | 59 of 102 | 57% | 26 of 52 | 15 of 22 | 18 of 28 | 40 of 81 | 7 of 8 | 12 of 13 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 22 of 83 | 26% | 12 of 62 | 4 of 11 | 6 of 10 | 19 of 80 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | 19 of 36 | 52% | 5 of 17 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 11 | 15 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 13 of 32 | 40% | 4 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jon Jones | 27 of 51 | 52% | 8 of 20 | 8 of 14 | 11 of 17 | 24 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 8 of 48 | 16% | 7 of 42 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jon Jones | 13 of 15 | 86% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 13 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
WIN
vs
Glover Teixeira
KO (punches)
R5
1:07
·
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira ·
May 28, 2017
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Gustafsson | 2 | 97 of 228 | 42% | 108 of 239 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 42 of 134 | 31% | 62 of 155 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 14 of 42 | 33% | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 5 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 17 of 58 | 29% | 19 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 17 of 47 | 36% | 17 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Gustafsson | 1 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 36 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 4 | Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 32 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Alexander Gustafsson | 1 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Gustafsson | 97 of 228 | 42% | 77 of 197 | 11 of 21 | 9 of 10 | 77 of 198 | 7 of 14 | 13 of 16 |
| Glover Teixeira | 42 of 134 | 31% | 34 of 123 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 39 of 126 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Gustafsson | 14 of 42 | 33% | 11 of 36 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Glover Teixeira | 5 of 25 | 20% | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 20 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Gustafsson | 17 of 58 | 29% | 16 of 54 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 51 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Glover Teixeira | 17 of 47 | 36% | 13 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Gustafsson | 32 of 62 | 51% | 27 of 53 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 15 |
| Glover Teixeira | 8 of 27 | 29% | 7 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Gustafsson | 27 of 52 | 51% | 16 of 40 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 46 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Glover Teixeira | 9 of 28 | 32% | 7 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Gustafsson | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Glover Teixeira | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
WIN
vs
Jan Błachowicz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27)
R3
5:00
·
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett ·
Sep 03, 2016
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 50 of 100 | 50% | 139 of 201 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 10:43 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 28 of 90 | 31% | 55 of 125 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 19 of 48 | 39% | 30 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 51 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 58 of 74 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 17 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Gustafsson | 50 of 100 | 50% | 43 of 92 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 41 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 28 of 90 | 31% | 18 of 73 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 81 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Gustafsson | 19 of 48 | 39% | 14 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 19 of 53 | 35% | 12 of 42 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 48 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Gustafsson | 14 of 25 | 56% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 19 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Alexander Gustafsson | 17 of 27 | 62% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 14 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 7 of 25 | 28% | 4 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
LOSS
vs
Daniel Cormier
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 49–46)
R5
5:00
·
UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson ·
Oct 03, 2015
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Cormier | 0 | 140 of 283 | 49% | 219 of 364 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 1 | 120 of 254 | 47% | 130 of 264 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Cormier | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 56 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Cormier | 0 | 28 of 53 | 52% | 36 of 61 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 30 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Daniel Cormier | 0 | 36 of 64 | 56% | 45 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 1 | 33 of 58 | 56% | 34 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 4 | Daniel Cormier | 0 | 31 of 75 | 41% | 33 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 5 | Daniel Cormier | 0 | 31 of 69 | 44% | 49 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Cormier | 140 of 283 | 49% | 111 of 240 | 11 of 22 | 18 of 21 | 86 of 212 | 48 of 64 | 6 of 7 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 120 of 254 | 47% | 88 of 206 | 23 of 38 | 9 of 10 | 102 of 221 | 15 of 30 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Cormier | 14 of 22 | 63% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 7 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 5 of 21 | 23% | 1 of 13 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Cormier | 28 of 53 | 52% | 24 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 39 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 27 of 60 | 45% | 16 of 47 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 54 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Daniel Cormier | 36 of 64 | 56% | 30 of 54 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 45 | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 33 of 58 | 56% | 24 of 46 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 45 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | |
| 4 | Daniel Cormier | 31 of 75 | 41% | 26 of 66 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 66 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 37 of 68 | 54% | 32 of 58 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 65 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Daniel Cormier | 31 of 69 | 44% | 23 of 57 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 18 of 50 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 18 of 47 | 38% | 15 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 38 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
LOSS
vs
Anthony Johnson
TKO (punches)
R1
2:15
·
UFC on Fox: Gustafsson vs. Johnson ·
Jan 24, 2015
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Johnson | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 1 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 38 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Johnson | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 1 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 38 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Johnson | 10 of 20 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 30 of 47 | 63% | 29 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Johnson | 10 of 20 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 30 of 47 | 63% | 29 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 21 |
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady
Expert
Hesitant
picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson
Big Brady picks Gustafsson based on better cardio, speed, and striking advantage. He is concerned about Werdum's size and potential takedowns, but notes Gustafsson has good takedown defense. He calls the fight weird and says the line is too wide to parlay, predicting a decision win for Gustafsson.
Gustafsson by decision
"I think mustafson is going to win this fight based off of you know he's going to have the better cardio he's going to be the faster fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi
Expert
Confident
picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum
Daniel is confident in Werdum as a plus-270 underdog. He argues the line is off because Gustafsson looked poor in his last two fights and retired after the Anthony Smith loss. He believes Werdum's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, especially if the fight gets dirty and grimy. He notes Werdum had a full camp this time unlike his last fight.
plus 270 underdog, dog or pass fight
"i think this line is off man... where doom should not be plus 270 if you got in on that plus 300 i think that's the way to go... i'm going word with what we're doing for the upset i think he takes down gustafson and submits him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night
Expert
Lean
picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson
Gustafsson has the striking advantage and good takedown defense, but there are too many question marks about his mental state after retirement and his layoff. Werdum looked poor against Oleynik and is 42. The under 2.5 rounds is attractive, but the moneyline is a pass due to uncertainty.
Under 2.5 rounds (-125)
"i like assassin here not enough to parlay him or bet him to be honest"
TH
The MMA Guru
Expert
Confident
picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Gustafsson to win by TKO, despite concerns about Gustafsson looking overweight and happy in interviews. He believes Gustafsson's speed and reach advantage will be too much for Werdum, who looked deflated after his USADA suspension. He predicts an early TKO.
TKO early
"I think Gustiffson wins brutally by TKO."
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