Career Averages - Carla Esparza
Career Averages - Marina Rodriguez
Carla Esparza - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 39 of 123 | 31% | 116 of 215 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 80 of 150 | 53% | 94 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 77 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 17 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 22 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 36 of 57 | 63% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 39 of 123 | 31% | 30 of 112 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 110 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 10 |
| Carla Esparza | 80 of 150 | 53% | 28 of 92 | 11 of 12 | 41 of 46 | 75 of 142 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 6 of 26 | 23% | 4 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 13 of 38 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 12 of 43 | 27% | 6 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 31 of 55 | 56% | 14 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 13 | 31 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 21 of 54 | 38% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Carla Esparza | 36 of 57 | 63% | 6 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 30 | 34 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.
Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.
Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.
The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.
Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.
Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 6 of 32 | 18% | 19 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0:55 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 42 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 5 of 27 | 18% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0:53 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 33 of 65 | 50% | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 6 of 32 | 18% | 6 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 37 of 78 | 47% | 20 of 58 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 24 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 5 of 27 | 18% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 33 of 65 | 50% | 19 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Weili is the more dangerous fighter with power and improved wrestling. He expects Esparza to shoot takedowns but thinks Weili's athleticism and preparation will allow her to defend and possibly out-grapple Esparza. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is not great and that Weili could even get takedowns of her own. He picks Weili to win and expects Esparza to lose the belt quickly.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, expecting a brutal beatdown. He believes Esparza's wrestling won't be enough to control Zhang for 25 minutes, and that on the feet it's not close. He compares it to Esparza's loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where she couldn't get takedowns and got finished. He notes Zhang knocked out Joanna with a spinning back fist and looks like a killer.
Cody picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, specifically by TKO. He compares the fight to Esparza's first title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Esparza was pressured against the cage and ate shots until the ref stopped it. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Esparza needs a perfect fight to get takedowns without taking damage. Cody believes Zhang's power and pressure will lead to a stoppage, and he prefers the inside distance prop over the moneyline.
Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili to become a two-time champion, but he is hesitant due to the price (-350) and the danger of Carla Esparza's wrestling and top control. He acknowledges that Carla has a history of mauling opponents like Yan Xiaonan and making Rose Namajunas gun-shy. Levi believes Weili is more well-rounded, powerful, and athletic, and he predicts a finish. However, he warns that if Weili gets laid on, it could be a repeat of Carla's past upsets. He advises against betting Carla again after her big dog win over Rose, calling it a 'one-time well.'
The host believes Zhang will get an early knockout, likely in the first two rounds. He notes Esparza's grappling is a threat, especially if the fight goes long, but Zhang's power and improved grappling should be enough to finish early. He recommends Zhang inside the distance rather than the moneyline, expecting a KO or submission. He also notes the under 4.5 rounds at +100 as a good bet.
Paul also picks Zhang Weili inside the distance, but specifically likes the TKO prop. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is suspect and that when she is forced to exchange, she tends to swell up. Paul highlights Zhang's pace, accuracy, and power, and believes that Esparza will not be able to get Zhang down. He warns against taking the KO prop specifically, recommending the inside distance prop instead to avoid being burned like he was with Poliana Viana.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing her improved grappling under Henry Cejudo and her ability to stuff takedowns and land knees and elbows. He notes Esparza's poor striking and her loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who stuffed 16 takedowns. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Weili dominating on the feet and stuffing all takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 37 of 136 | 27% | 38 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 30 of 133 | 22% | 30 of 133 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 9 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 4 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 8 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 5 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 13 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 5 of 31 | 16% | 5 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 37 of 136 | 27% | 30 of 122 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 36 of 135 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 30 of 133 | 22% | 15 of 108 | 4 of 11 | 11 of 14 | 27 of 128 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 4 of 19 | 21% | 2 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 4 of 22 | 18% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 11 of 36 | 30% | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 9 of 32 | 28% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Carla Esparza | 6 of 28 | 21% | 6 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 8 of 29 | 27% | 3 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 39 | 33% | 7 of 30 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 5 of 31 | 16% | 2 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.
Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.
Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.
The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.
Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.
The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 31 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 27 of 33 | 81% | 170 of 194 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 24 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 104 of 117 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 66 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 27 of 33 | 81% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 31 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 13 of 15 | 86% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 18 | 77% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.
Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.
Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.
Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.
The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 118 of 152 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 | 0 | 8:54 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 76 | 52% | 91 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 49 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 32 of 47 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 43 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 37 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 33 of 60 | 55% | 29 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 43 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 40 of 76 | 52% | 34 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 37 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 25 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 7 of 19 | 36% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 14 of 29 | 48% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 10 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 18 of 29 | 62% | 15 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 20 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Rodriguez because of her huge striking advantage and high output. He notes Esparza's path is takedowns, but thinks Rodriguez can be active off her back and get up. He placed a bet on Rodriguez at -160 and predicts a third-round knockout, though he acknowledges Esparza could win if she controls on the ground.
Daniel is confident in Marina Rodriguez, citing her striking advantage, length, and viciousness. He believes she will stuff takedowns and light up Esparza on the feet, similar to Joanna's win over Esparza. He notes Rodriguez's improvements in getting up from takedowns and her mental toughness. He sees a dominant decision win.
Esparza is the superior wrestler and grappler, and Rodriguez has shown clear flaws in takedown defense. Esparza's chain wrestling and ability to secure takedowns should be the difference. Rodriguez has a striking advantage but Esparza can nullify it with relentless grappling. Esparza likely wins by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Carla Esparza, arguing that Marina Rodriguez has failed in her step-ups in competition, while Esparza is a better version of Tecia Torres, stronger and more smothering. He believes Esparza's wrestling and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 45 of 103 | 43% | 48 of 106 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 44 of 98 | 44% | 44 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 45 of 103 | 43% | 34 of 88 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 39 of 94 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 44 of 98 | 44% | 15 of 60 | 13 of 16 | 16 of 22 | 39 of 92 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 9 of 28 | 32% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 15 of 31 | 48% | 13 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 13 of 26 | 50% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 25 of 54 | 46% | 18 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 47 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 22 of 44 | 50% | 8 of 27 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Carla Esparza, expecting her to secure takedowns and control Waterson, swaying judges in close rounds. He notes Esparza's improving striking but gives Waterson the edge on the feet. He predicts a very close decision win for Esparza.
Daniel Levi leans towards Michelle Waterson, believing the fight should be a pick'em and thus taking the underdog. He notes Waterson's underrated wrestling, sidekicks, and head-and-arm throw, and thinks she can frustrate Esparza on the outside. Levi acknowledges Esparza's improved boxing but sees Waterson as having more tricks and being undervalued.
Matt leans Esparza, believing she can get takedowns at will and grind out a decision. He notes her improving striking and submission defense, but worries about Waterson's submissions off her back. He considers Esparza a potential lock but is not pulling the trigger at -164, preferring to wait for better spots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 44 of 80 | 55% | 115 of 157 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 7:12 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 45 of 103 | 43% | 103 of 169 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 36 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 33 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 56 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 35 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:16 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 35 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 44 of 80 | 55% | 27 of 60 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 59 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 12 |
| Alexa Grasso | 45 of 103 | 43% | 41 of 97 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 88 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 18 of 36 | 50% | 8 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexa Grasso | 17 of 41 | 41% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 18 | 72% | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
| Alexa Grasso | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 26 | 50% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 22 of 42 | 52% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 97 of 128 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 5:25 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 64 of 89 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 3:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 26 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 22 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 28 of 40 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 24 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 1:42 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 43 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 25 of 51 | 49% | 18 of 43 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 9 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 17 of 37 | 45% | 13 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 12 | 66% | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 10 | 70% | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 9 of 20 | 45% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 15 | 46% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Marina Rodriguez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 73 of 120 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 42 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 31 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 4 of 17 | 23% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 16 of 41 | 39% | 12 of 32 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 2 of 13 | 15% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 11 of 25 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 |
Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.
Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.
This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 33 of 99 | 33% | 65 of 134 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 55 of 104 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 4:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 20 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 24 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 12 of 37 | 32% | 26 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 11 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 33 of 99 | 33% | 28 of 89 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 3 | 28 of 92 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 30 of 73 | 41% | 19 of 56 | 9 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 27 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 5 of 25 | 20% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 33 | 33% | 4 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 16 of 37 | 43% | 13 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 12 of 37 | 32% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.
Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.
Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.
Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.
Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.
The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.
Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.
Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 89 of 180 | 49% | 124 of 220 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 82 of 228 | 35% | 94 of 241 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 49 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 42 of 86 | 48% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 107 | 32% | 35 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 31 of 85 | 36% | 32 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 89 of 180 | 49% | 35 of 110 | 14 of 18 | 40 of 52 | 79 of 165 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 82 of 228 | 35% | 70 of 207 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 77 of 220 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 14 of 23 | 60% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 14 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 16 of 36 | 44% | 9 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 42 of 86 | 48% | 21 of 59 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 16 | 35 of 75 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 35 of 107 | 32% | 34 of 104 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 104 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 33 of 71 | 46% | 12 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 22 | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 31 of 85 | 36% | 27 of 75 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 28 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.
Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.
Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.
Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.
Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.
Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 70 of 102 | 68% | 90 of 130 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 16 of 37 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 51 of 75 | 68% | 67 of 99 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 13 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 70 of 102 | 68% | 47 of 70 | 22 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 23 | 53 of 73 | 5 of 6 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 13 of 32 | 40% | 7 of 23 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 51 of 75 | 68% | 38 of 56 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | 45 of 62 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 10 of 20 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 6 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 19 of 27 | 70% | 9 of 14 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 6 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo trusts Marina slightly more to push the action and keep her boxing in Michelle's face. He notes Michelle has more dynamic striking and experience but is inconsistent. He thinks the fight likely goes to decision and suggests betting over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez confidently, expecting a decision win. He notes Rodriguez is the better striker with power, while Waterson-Gomez has zero power and relies on volume. He thinks the fight will stay standing and Rodriguez will do more damage. He mentions Waterson-Gomez could try takedowns but doubts she will. He calls the rematch unnecessary.
Cody picks Marina Rodriguez by decision, expecting a similar outcome to their first fight. He notes Rodriguez's size, output, and ability to stuff takedowns, while Waterson has declined and struggles to implement her grappling. He sees no significant improvements from Waterson and believes Rodriguez will outwork her again.
Daniel is confident Rodriguez wins, citing her massive volume and reach advantage on the feet. He rewatched their first fight and saw Rodriguez dominate until getting taken down in round 4. He believes if Rodriguez avoids extended time on bottom, she will out-strike Waterson decisively. He notes Waterson's low output and age (37) as concerns, and thinks Rodriguez covers the -300 line.
Lucrative James is confident Rodriguez will win, calling Waterson washed and not good on the ground. He thinks Rodriguez will piece her up and sees value at -300, estimating her true probability at 85%. He also considers betting the under or Rodriguez by KO, but is wary of recent losses on women's unders.
The host picks Rodriguez at minus 300, expecting a repeat of their first fight where Rodriguez battered Waterson-Gomez on the feet. He notes Waterson-Gomez's underrated BJJ but poor wrestling to get the fight down, and that Rodriguez's takedown defense and clinch work (knees, elbows) will keep it standing. He acknowledges both are on losing streaks but sees Rodriguez as the younger, more powerful striker who wins by decision.
Paul agrees with Rodriguez, but won't bet at -300. He likes Rodriguez's over 70.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, noting she landed 78 in the first fight. He thinks Waterson's takedown threat is minimal and Rodriguez will out-strike her again.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Marina Rodriguez, noting she already beat Michelle Waterson in their first fight, winning 4-1 on rounds. He criticizes Waterson's three-fight losing streak and questions the rematch. He defends Rodriguez's loss to Amanda Lemos as an early stoppage and praises her grappling awareness against Mackenzie Dern. He believes Rodriguez's striking and overall game are clearly superior.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 33 of 62 | 53% | 115 of 150 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 91 of 116 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 12:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 18 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 31 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:36 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 34 of 40 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 4:06 | |
| 3 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 70 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 26 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 33 of 62 | 53% | 27 of 52 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 22 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 27 of 43 | 62% | 25 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 5 of 11 | 45% | 2 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 16 | 68% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 8 | |
| 3 | Virna Jandiroba | 21 of 42 | 50% | 19 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 13 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 12 of 20 | 60% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but warns it feels like a trap and advises not to bet on it. He believes Marina has a clear striking advantage and will land cleanly, while Virna Jandiroba's head movement is poor. The fight comes down to Marina's takedown defense; if she can keep it standing, she wins. Angelo thinks Virna will have some success diving for legs, but judges will favor Marina's clean striking. He is not touching this fight with his money.
Big Brady picks Jandiroba, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He notes Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and get-up game, and Jandiroba is dangerous on top. He believes Jandiroba will get takedowns and submit Rodriguez, predicting a second-round submission. He dismisses Rodriguez's takedown defense against Mackenzie Dern as irrelevant because Dern has poor wrestling.
Cody sees a clear path for Jandiroba via her superior wrestling. He notes that Rodriguez gives up takedowns in every fight, and Jandiroba is a strong wrestler with good top game. He expects Jandiroba to take her down, control her, and win a decision or possibly a submission. He likes the plus money.
Connor agrees, noting Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she reaches for strikes, while Rodriguez is durable and has never been submitted. He sees the fight getting harder for Jandiroba as it goes on, similar to Rodriguez's fight with Ribas where Ribas got knocked out after an early takedown.
The host picks Marina Rodriguez by decision. He believes Rodriguez's improved takedown defense and striking will keep the fight standing, where she can land significant strikes. He acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ threat but trusts Rodriguez's recent improvements to nullify it.
Paul has already bet Jandiroba at +140. He agrees that her wrestling is the key, as Rodriguez has been taken down by everyone. He expects Jandiroba to make it ugly, hold her against the cage, and win a close decision.
The Guru picks Rodriguez, stating she is better in all areas, especially on the feet. He believes her grappling has improved enough to survive Jandiroba's ground game, and that she is a better version of Amanda Ribas, who beat Jandiroba. He predicts a decision win.
Zane picks Rodriguez because Jandiroba is unlikely to get an early submission, and Rodriguez gets harder to take down as fights go on. He notes Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she struggles on the back foot, while Rodriguez's pressure and durability should take over in later rounds. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Amanda Ribas.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 44 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 43 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 22 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 19 of 52 | 36% | 6 of 26 | 3 of 8 | 10 of 18 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 29 of 53 | 54% | 16 of 36 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 9 of 29 | 31% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 15 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 18 | 61% | 4 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 4 of 15 | 26% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 8 of 16 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 19 | 52% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.
Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.
Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.
Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.
The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.
Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 72 of 200 | 36% | 79 of 207 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 56 of 132 | 42% | 66 of 143 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 25 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 107 | 37% | 41 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 72 of 200 | 36% | 46 of 166 | 18 of 19 | 8 of 15 | 59 of 182 | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 56 of 132 | 42% | 37 of 105 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 18 | 48 of 121 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 18 of 48 | 37% | 9 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 24 of 54 | 44% | 18 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 8 | 21 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 14 of 45 | 31% | 9 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 38 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 34 | 41% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 40 of 107 | 37% | 28 of 93 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 34 of 99 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 18 of 44 | 40% | 12 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Marina is faster and more powerful, and that Yan has only executed a wrestle-heavy game plan once. He plans to place a plus 3.5 round bet on Yan, buying a round on the scorecard. He calls Yan 'stupid live' at the current odds.
Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez to win by decision. He believes Rodriguez will have a significant power advantage on the feet and that Yan Xiaonan is unlikely to attempt takedowns, which plays into Rodriguez's strengths. Brady notes that Rodriguez has improved her takedown defense and ground game, making it hard for Yan to take her down. He acknowledges the line is a bit steep at -250 but still favors Rodriguez to win.
Cody believes Rodriguez is the rightful favorite because she has never lost a striking battle and hits hard for the division. He notes her takedown defense is a concern but argues Yan's wrestling is not elite, based on tape of Yan's takedowns against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Cody thinks if Yan can't take her down, Rodriguez wins the striking exchanges with volume and power.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan as a dog, citing the plus 250 odds. He believes this will be a close, competitive striking match and that Yan has the striking acumen to edge out a decision. He notes that Marina has only landed one takedown in her UFC career, so there is little takedown threat. He acknowledges Marina's improvements but thinks the odds are too wide and Yan has value.
The line is too wide; this is a 50/50 fight. Yan's power striking and training at Team Alpha Male should pose problems for Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a striker but hasn't faced someone with Yan's power. Yan's takedown defense is a concern, but Rodriguez rarely grapples. At plus money, Yan is the clear value pick. Yan can outstrike Rodriguez and win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodriguez's striking volume and power. He is skeptical of Yan's wrestling after watching the Kowalkiewicz fight, where Yan's takedowns were not from clean entries but rather Kowalkiewicz giving up position. Paul believes if Yan cannot take Rodriguez down, she will lose the striking battle. He calls it a women's MMA fight but is confident in Rodriguez.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Yan Xiaonan, expecting a striking affair. He notes Yan's main weakness is grappling, but believes Rodriguez has improved her cardio and striking variety, using more kicks to the body and legs. He thinks Rodriguez is more powerful and tougher, predicting a 30-27 decision where she pieces Yan apart. He also expresses a hot take that Rodriguez will become champion.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 49 of 174 | 28% | 80 of 209 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 | 1 | 7:21 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 144 of 279 | 51% | 148 of 284 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 4:21 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 8 of 35 | 22% | 8 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 45 of 91 | 49% | 47 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 15 of 54 | 27% | 21 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 37 of 65 | 56% | 37 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 46 | 23% | 11 of 46 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 49 of 174 | 28% | 41 of 158 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 36 of 155 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 16 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 144 of 279 | 51% | 72 of 186 | 39 of 58 | 33 of 35 | 124 of 257 | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 5 of 17 | 29% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 24 of 49 | 48% | 9 of 31 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 13 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 8 of 35 | 22% | 7 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 45 of 91 | 49% | 28 of 66 | 8 of 15 | 9 of 10 | 37 of 82 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Marina Rodriguez | 15 of 54 | 27% | 12 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 37 of 65 | 56% | 14 of 36 | 13 of 19 | 10 of 10 | 34 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 46 | 23% | 8 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 37 of 68 | 54% | 21 of 49 | 8 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 33 of 64 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez, calling her the more complete fighter with superior striking and takedown defense. He notes her wins over top competition and Dern's poor takedown accuracy. He has a money line bet on Rodriguez at plus 145. He thinks Dern's only path is submission, but Rodriguez can avoid the ground.
Big Brady, despite being a self-proclaimed Dern hater, picks her to win by submission. He notes that Dern only needs one takedown to finish the fight, and Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and ground game. He references Rodriguez being taken down by multiple opponents and her poor get-up game. Brady thinks Dern will eventually get the takedown and submit her, but he would not bet her as a favorite at these odds.
Cody leans toward Dern because he believes the fight will eventually hit the ground over five rounds, where Dern's BJJ is leaps and bounds better than Rodriguez's. He notes Rodriguez has a clear striking advantage and Dern's wrestling is not elite, but Dern has shown improvements and can capitalize on scrambles. He suggests live betting Dern after she loses the early rounds, and predicts a third or fourth round submission or a decision.
Daniel Levi acknowledges that Marina Rodriguez is a superior striker, comparing her to a young Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but he is concerned about her takedown defense. He notes that Mackenzie Dern's hands have improved under Jason Parillo and she has power, but her path to victory is getting the fight to the mat. He predicts Dern will secure a takedown and finish via submission, though he admits if Dern doesn't submit her early, the fight becomes uncertain.
Jacob is extremely confident in Mackenzie Dern, calling her the lock of the week. He believes her jiu-jitsu is unmatched and that if the fight goes to the ground, she will submit Rodriguez. He dismisses Rodriguez's striking improvements and plans to bet 20 units on Dern at minus 160. He thinks Dern's striking has improved enough to get the fight to the mat.
The host picks Mackenzie Dern, citing her elite BJJ and ability to secure a takedown against Marina Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down before (e.g., by Amanda Ribas) and that Dern's jiu-jitsu is superior. He believes Dern can remain safe on the feet long enough to close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she will likely find a submission. He also mentions the low variance of grappling compared to striking, favoring the grappler. He predicts a second-round submission.
Paul is leaning toward Dern, acknowledging that Rodriguez has advantages on the feet but Dern's submission threat and improved striking make her dangerous. He notes Dern's wrestling is not great but she can create chaotic scrambles. He is hesitant because Dern has cost him money before, but he sees her path to victory via submission or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by unanimous decision as an underdog. He highlights her striking accuracy, power, and takedown defense (62%). He questions Dern's late start in sparring and believes Rodriguez's experience and reach advantage will be decisive. He advises betting on Rodriguez before odds change.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Rodriguez because of her huge striking advantage and high output. He notes Esparza's path is takedowns, but thinks Rodriguez can be active off her back and get up. He placed a bet on Rodriguez at -160 and predicts a third-round knockout, though he acknowledges Esparza could win if she controls on the ground.
Daniel is confident in Marina Rodriguez, citing her striking advantage, length, and viciousness. He believes she will stuff takedowns and light up Esparza on the feet, similar to Joanna's win over Esparza. He notes Rodriguez's improvements in getting up from takedowns and her mental toughness. He sees a dominant decision win.
Esparza is the superior wrestler and grappler, and Rodriguez has shown clear flaws in takedown defense. Esparza's chain wrestling and ability to secure takedowns should be the difference. Rodriguez has a striking advantage but Esparza can nullify it with relentless grappling. Esparza likely wins by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Carla Esparza, arguing that Marina Rodriguez has failed in her step-ups in competition, while Esparza is a better version of Tecia Torres, stronger and more smothering. He believes Esparza's wrestling and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez.
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