UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 0"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Robert Whittaker
4.39 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.36 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.73 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Darren Till
2.3 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.31 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.55 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Robert Whittaker - Fight History
SCHED vs Nikita Krylov
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 66 of 142 46% 70 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Reinier de Ridder 0 67 of 145 46% 192 of 282 2 of 15 13% 0 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 20 of 34 58% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 16 of 38 42% 29 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
3 Robert Whittaker 1 20 of 28 71% 21 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Reinier de Ridder 0 13 of 30 43% 32 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:39
4 Robert Whittaker 0 6 of 22 27% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Reinier de Ridder 0 14 of 24 58% 37 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:56
5 Robert Whittaker 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 9 of 18 50% 73 of 83 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 66 of 142 46% 62 of 135 4 of 7 0 of 0 51 of 123 4 of 5 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 67 of 145 46% 41 of 105 26 of 40 0 of 0 54 of 128 9 of 11 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 20 of 34 58% 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 15 of 35 42% 6 of 19 9 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 30 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 9 of 27 33% 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 16 of 38 42% 12 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Robert Whittaker 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 13 1 of 1 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 13 of 30 43% 10 of 24 3 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 4
4 Robert Whittaker 6 of 22 27% 6 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 14 of 24 58% 10 of 18 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Robert Whittaker 11 of 31 35% 9 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 9 of 18 50% 3 of 12 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.

"I'm going to pick him. Low confidence pick here, but I am going to go with Renier."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I like Whitaker here. ... I think he probably does knock out Ditter late in the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.

Odds movement from -190 to -140 suggests line movement, but Connor is surprised de Ridder is only +120, calling it 'basically dead even' and saying 'I don't see it.'
"I'm going to take Robert Whittaker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think Whitaker won't have as much trouble dealing with Ditter in the striking realm. And I think we'll see Whitaker stuff the takedowns of Derritter, keep this fight upright, pick the Ritter apart, and eventually find that finish in …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.

Submission, round 3, rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Raina Derida. ... I'm going to say submission victory for Raina Derida. ... third round rear naked choke."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.

"Yeah, it's just not a, it's not a fight that we've ever seen Whitaker lose... I expect it to look like a pretty easy fight for Whitaker."
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Submission (face crank) R1 3:34 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 3 of 4 75% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 3 of 4 75% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)

Round 1
An all-international middleweight rumble with immediate championship implications serves as the co-main attraction of UFC 308, one that has as much attention as any non-title tilt lately. Former beltholder Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC) hopes that this next win will propel him back to the top of the mountain, and he will have to deflate undefeated marauder Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) in a five-round affair. Anticipation is high in the building, among fans and the media, and with referee Jason Herzog as well. Everyone takes a deep breath, and the intense fighters do not touch gloves. Whittaker kicks low, and Chimaev tries to go high and misses. Whittaker attacks the lead leg again, and shoots low for a double. Whittaker uses the wall to keep himself upright, and he is dragged down despite grabbing the fence to keep himself afloat. Chimaev gets a hook in around the side, and he starts opening up with left hands while Whittaker is on his knees. Chimaev considers fishing a choke arm around the head, but he elects to impose his body weight down to keep Whittaker stuck. Whittaker keeps his hand attached to his face to defend from any noteworthy strikes, and Chimaev imposes his will and starts slamming knees to the thigh. Whittaker turns the other direction and gets wrenched down flat for a moment, but he posts off his arms to stop Chimaev from getting hold of him. Chimaev takes the back of the former champ, but Whittaker’s savvy scramble gets him out of immediate danger. Chimaev almost instantly hits a mat return, dragging “Bobby Knuckles” to a knee. A few short punches from the Russian get around the guard, and he slithers one arm around the jaw to try to set something up. Whittaker scrambles again, and he bucks off a choke and twists to the side to stop from giving up his back. Chimaev holds on and looks for an elbow on the side of the head, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke grip on the face in a hurry. “Borz” cranks on the face with all his might, and he appears to harm Whittaker with the submission as Whittaker taps frantically in an instant. Chimaev releases the grip when Herzog intervenes, and he hurls his mouthpiece out of the cage to celebrate. Whittaker motions that his jaw or face was injured from the sub, and Chimaev has now prevailed over one of the top talents in the middleweight division with little resistance. It likely cannot be denied who is next for Chimaev, who expresses gratitude for Whittaker accepting the fight with him. Chimaev calls for UFC chief Dana White to give him a shot at the belt, and after that crushing victory, who could say no?

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Robert Whittaker R1 3:34 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.

Second leg of villain parlay with a full unit bet; hopes it misses.
"hamzat is going to be the pick he is the second leg of that villain parlay."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.

first round submission; live bet on Whittaker if fight reaches third round
"I'll go chamaya first round submission I think it's a great live bet spot though if this fight reaches the second and a half uh the round and a half mark the third round I would take a look at …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.

"I'm going with Robert Whitaker as well but I'm looking to live bet after the second"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220
"I am going to be a sucker and pick Whitaker."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.

submission (rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke)
"I'm calling either a rear naked choke or a Dar choke finish"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.

inside the distance
"I think jayv is going to get the W here probably inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.

Whittaker wins by decision or late finish (rounds 4-5)
"I like Whitaker here to pull off the upset"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.

"give me the guy with you know the former champion in this division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.

TKO fourth round
"I'm going with Robert Whittaker getting this one done TKO fourth round finishes Chimaev who's gassed out."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.

"I picked wittaker going in so i have to eat a little crow but even picking wittaker my feeling was look wittaker when he loses he absolutely melts down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220
"Yeah, me too. We're really setting ourselves up."
KO (punches) R1 1:49 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Ikram Aliskerov 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Ikram Aliskerov 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 14 of 21 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2 12 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov 5 of 15 33% 3 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 14 of 21 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2 12 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov 5 of 15 33% 3 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo picks Aliskerov, citing a changing of the guard. He thinks Whittaker is starting to phase out, showing chin issues and getting hit more. He notes Aliskerov has genuine one-punch KO power and can wrestle, though he hasn't shown it in the UFC. He is not confident enough to bet due to the short notice for Aliskerov, but as a pick he goes with the younger fighter.

No bet due to short notice concerns
"I think rram wins this fight not confident enough to bet on it I wish the odds were wider so I could but I am going to pick rram here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker confidently, citing the many disadvantages for Aliskerov: short notice, weight cut issues, travel, and a massive step up in competition from Antonio Trócoli to Whittaker. He expects Whittaker's experience and cardio to take over as the fight goes on, predicting a late finish or decision. Brady acknowledges Aliskerov's early danger but believes Whittaker's chances skyrocket after the first round.

"I got to go Whitaker here there's no way I can I can pick against Whitaker it's a show me spot"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker based on his superior striking, footwork, and experience in deep rounds. He notes Whittaker's takedown defense and ability to use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan, while Aliskerov has not faced top-level competition and may fade in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Aliskerov's power and the risk of Whittaker getting caught early.

"I gota go with Robbie Knuckles to uh to get a win here but I'm expecting it to be a competitive main event that you're going to be puckered up in because I mov is a first round knockout guy"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker but with caution. He notes Whittaker's elite takedown defense, scrambling, and striking (left hook, high kick) but questions his durability and chin, citing recent wobbles. He acknowledges Aliskerov's power and potential but sees the step up in competition as too big. He leans Whittaker but is not fully confident due to Whittaker's long career and possible decline.

"I'm gonna go Robert Whitaker here but proceed with caution because again when Fighters are I don't know if I want to call it the Twilight of his career because again he's only 33"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Jacob picks Aliskerov, comparing the situation to Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira. He thinks Whittaker's win over Paulo Costa is overrated and that Costa is not a top-five guy. He notes Whittaker gets wobbled often and blitzes in, which plays into Aliskerov's power. He worries about Aliskerov's short notice and two weight cuts but thinks if he lands, he knocks Whittaker out. He has not bet it but picks Aliskerov.

No bet placed
"I'm going rram here but I'll be honest I I haven't bet it you I still respect Bobby and you know that short notice and you know five rounds and I haven't eded yet but as a pick I'm going …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

JP picks Aliskerov by decision, comparing him to Dricus du Plessis who beat Whittaker. He believes Aliskerov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Whittaker, who has looked a step slower. Brevan agrees, noting Whittaker's decline and Aliskerov's hunger. Both see great value in Aliskerov as a dog and expect him to dominate. They suggest betting on Aliskerov moneyline and possibly by decision.

Aliskerov by decision (dog money)
"I see rram doing the exact same thing I think it goes to decision because I think Rob's tough I think Rob can hang in there I think rro by decision dog money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker, citing his proven track record and the step-up in competition for Aliskerov. He mentions travel advantages for Whittaker and notes that Aliskerov hasn't proven himself against top-tier opponents. Paul expects a competitive fight but leans on Whittaker's experience.

"I can't really back him at this price until he kind of proves against a higher level of competition that he belongs in there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov, arguing that Aliskerov's regional wins are not impressive enough to suggest he can finish a former champion. He notes that Aliskerov went to the third round with Dennis Tulin and struggled with other lower-level opponents, while Whittaker has a proven chin and has faced elite competition. He believes Whittaker's experience, takedown defense, and ability to adapt will be key, and that Aliskerov's best path is a knockout, but Whittaker doesn't make the same mistakes as Aliskerov's previous opponents. He admits that if Whittaker loses, it would change his entire view of MMA.

"I am going to go with Whitaker I believe in Whitaker here if he loses it will change my entire opinion on MMA so we'll see."
WIN vs Paulo Costa
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 95 of 175 54% 95 of 175 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 67 of 151 44% 67 of 151 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 38 of 62 61% 38 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 27 of 49 55% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Robert Whittaker 0 32 of 55 58% 32 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 26 of 54 48% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 58 43% 25 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 14 of 48 29% 14 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 95 of 175 54% 63 of 143 4 of 4 28 of 28 95 of 172 0 of 3 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 67 of 151 44% 39 of 117 8 of 12 20 of 22 67 of 151 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 38 of 62 61% 26 of 50 1 of 1 11 of 11 38 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 27 of 49 55% 16 of 38 4 of 4 7 of 7 27 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 32 of 55 58% 20 of 43 3 of 3 9 of 9 32 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 26 of 54 48% 16 of 43 2 of 3 8 of 8 26 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 25 of 58 43% 17 of 50 0 of 0 8 of 8 25 of 56 0 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 14 of 48 29% 7 of 36 2 of 5 5 of 7 14 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.

"I'm still going to pick Whitaker here I'm probably gonna leave him out of the safety parlay as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.

Whittaker by decision
"give me Robert Whitaker Robert Whitaker by decision this fight doesn't happen probably"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as steamed line)
"Whitaker is going to be the pick for me as well I think he just throws more volume is a little bit more tactical in his approach he has to avoid the bomb but it's like..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.

"I feel like Paulo Costa was never that great... I think Whitaker's gonna beat Costa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.

"I think if he's able to stay away from the big Power that Costa presents he should be able to get up on the judges scorecards and win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.

Whittaker by decision (mentioned as potential prop)
"I just got to go with the better technique the cleaner guy uh to I think just win a decision I don't see him knocking out Paul a Costa but again I think with his footwork in his jab stay …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.

I love this being in the bigger cage by the way that's a huge part of this fight.
"I'm going for Robert Whittaker here... Whitaker speed will shock him and stumble him off balance."
TKO (punches) R2 2:23 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 70 44% 32 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 1 62 of 104 59% 74 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 0 29 of 54 53% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 1 33 of 50 66% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 31 of 70 44% 23 of 59 2 of 4 6 of 7 29 of 68 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 62 of 104 59% 38 of 77 11 of 13 13 of 14 41 of 77 8 of 10 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 44 50% 16 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 5 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 29 of 54 53% 13 of 36 9 of 10 7 of 8 21 of 44 0 of 0 8 of 10
2 Dricus du Plessis 9 of 26 34% 7 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 33 of 50 66% 25 of 41 2 of 3 6 of 6 20 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.

Parlay recommended, possible stoppage
"I think this is a mauling I think trick is too busy is tough I think he might be a big deal soon in the division but I just think Robert Whittaker is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.

second round knockout
"give me Robert Whitaker to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.

Under 2.5 rounds (-130, -132), Whittaker by KO/TKO
"I took the under two and a half rounds at minus 130 and minus 132. uh Robert Whitaker will be my pick here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.

"Robert Whittaker could out wrestle him if he wanted to. He should be able to just light his ass up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.

KO prop on du Plessis at plus money is the only place to look for him
"I'm going Robert Whittaker display build those plans and put on a clinic against drikis."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"I do think that the line is wide I do think that trick is duplicity deserves deserves a bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"fight doesn't go to decision probably my favorite spot considering it's sitting around that minus 160 range the last time I saw it but I think that we're going to see a knockout here and I think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.

Whittaker by KO/TKO, under 2.5 rounds
"I think Robert Whitaker has got a class pretty much everywhere but the thing with Drake is in terms of a knockout prop is like man he got a hard hat on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.

wins by decision 30-27 or 30-26
"I think Whitaker wins this one by decision 30 27 maybe 30 26 with a dominant third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.

"There's nothing about his game that should beat Robert Whittaker. Nope, literally nothing."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 74 of 166 44% 74 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 33 of 116 28% 38 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 22 of 56 39% 22 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 14 of 41 34% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 10 of 45 22% 11 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
3 Robert Whittaker 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 9 of 30 30% 11 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 74 of 166 44% 49 of 138 6 of 9 19 of 19 72 of 163 0 of 0 2 of 3
Marvin Vettori 33 of 116 28% 15 of 94 7 of 10 11 of 12 33 of 116 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 22 of 56 39% 15 of 48 1 of 2 6 of 6 22 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 14 of 41 34% 6 of 33 5 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 25 of 53 47% 17 of 43 3 of 5 5 of 5 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 10 of 45 22% 4 of 36 1 of 3 5 of 6 10 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 27 of 57 47% 17 of 47 2 of 2 8 of 8 25 of 54 0 of 0 2 of 3
Marvin Vettori 9 of 30 30% 5 of 25 1 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.

Moneyline bet placed at -235; line moved to -300s; likely decision win
"whitaker is an easy pick here he's going to be faster have the far cleaner striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.

"i think whitaker does does win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.

Whittaker wins by decision
"I'd take Robert Whittaker... the over under set 280 I think to the over and yeah I think this thing's going a decision so if you want to try to improve that 210 price tag on Robert Whittaker almost certainly …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.

Fight goes to decision; Vettori by KO at +1200 (mentioned by co-host)
"I'm gonna go Whitaker but I'm just sketched about it because at some point I think that drop-off will come I just don't know when it's gonna be"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.

Whittaker by decision (minus 105)
"Give me Bobby Knuckles via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.

"I'm gonna lean ever so slightly to the dogma of inventory to pull off the upset here... I think marvin vittorio obviously is only three years younger but it's like in terms of like robert whittaker's 31 with city miles."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.

Whittaker wins by decision 30-27
"i think the main problem that vettori has is talent and skill"
LOSS vs Israel Adesanya
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 1 79 of 169 46% 98 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 59 of 136 43% 74 of 151 4 of 10 40% 0 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 33 36% 17 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
3 Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
4 Israel Adesanya 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 16 of 35 45% 19 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
5 Israel Adesanya 0 13 of 22 59% 24 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 10 of 19 52% 17 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 79 of 169 46% 36 of 108 14 of 23 29 of 38 77 of 167 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 59 of 136 43% 38 of 105 8 of 11 13 of 20 54 of 130 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 18 of 34 52% 3 of 14 4 of 6 11 of 14 18 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 9 of 21 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 8 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 16 of 41 39% 9 of 30 0 of 2 7 of 9 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 33 36% 7 of 27 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Israel Adesanya 17 of 33 51% 11 of 24 3 of 4 3 of 5 16 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 28 42% 9 of 20 1 of 3 2 of 5 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Israel Adesanya 15 of 39 38% 6 of 26 5 of 7 4 of 6 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 16 of 35 45% 10 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Israel Adesanya 13 of 22 59% 7 of 14 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 10 of 19 52% 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.

buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for Robert Whittaker
"i like israel adasana to win by decision in a very very competitive fight and i may buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for robert whitaker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.

Adesanya by late knockout
"i'm going to take honasanya pretty confidently probably my first or second most confident pick of the card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i just don't think i've seen enough from robert whittaker since the first meaning to really leaning his favor"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.

"I still have to go with izzy I design it here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.

Whittaker by decision; value at +225
"i do like bobby knuckles in this spot i think he's a very good bet especially at plus 225 and i don't care what anybody says"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i think it's going to be the same old thing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.

decision
"i'm going with israel desanya"
Darren Till - Fight History
Submission (face crank) R3 2:43 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 35 of 70 50% 58 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 86 of 147 58% 117 of 197 6 of 6 100% 3 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 6 of 12 50% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 60 of 85 70% 82 of 126 3 of 3 100% 1 0 3:56
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 18 of 33 54% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 10 of 28 35% 19 of 37 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:27
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 35 of 70 50% 26 of 57 6 of 9 3 of 4 29 of 60 1 of 1 5 of 9
Darren Till 86 of 147 58% 69 of 123 4 of 7 13 of 17 28 of 59 25 of 40 33 of 48
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9
Darren Till 60 of 85 70% 54 of 77 2 of 3 4 of 5 4 of 6 25 of 38 31 of 41
2 Dricus du Plessis 18 of 33 54% 12 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 10 of 28 35% 4 of 21 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 2
3 Dricus du Plessis 11 of 25 44% 9 of 20 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 34 47% 11 of 25 1 of 2 4 of 7 14 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Darren Till

Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.

Moneyline bet placed earlier (odds not specified).
"Till's gonna be the pick here I do have a money line bet on him I've had that for a little while now I'm nervous about it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.

du Plessis wins by second round submission
"I like Rodriguez to win this fight I like and win by finish I'll take drikas to win by I'll say second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.

"I'm in the same boat as you I want to bet him he's the underdog right first dog that we like that plus money looks good but he's such an untrustworthy guy Darren till"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I trust Rick is duplexes just to go out there and do the one thing. I trust because duplexes to show up and be like an absolutely brutal puncher, just a clubber for three rounds, no matter what."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.

Mentions possibility of du Plessis winning by submission (back take choke).
"I got drika's duplicity to look awkward out there to look stiff to look rigid but when he is still on the chin Till's gonna be like God damn"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.

"I'm gonna go on the opposite side here I do think duplexes is the one that gets Sunrise but uh yeah I would likely buy some stocks here on prediction strike on duplexes and hopefully cash this weekend"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.

"I'm gonna decide ever so slightly on the side of Darren till in this matchup but I don't know if I can trust him with my money Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.

"I'm going with dracus to bless his over Darren till"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I'll pick the Plessy as well, but man, someday the wheels are going to fly off that duplex in the most spectacular fashion imaginable."
LOSS vs Derek Brunson
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:13 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Sep 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 41 of 84 48% 101 of 145 3 of 6 50% 1 0 7:23
Darren Till 0 26 of 50 52% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 26 of 51 50% 51 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
Darren Till 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 6 of 13 46% 37 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:56
Darren Till 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Derek Brunson 0 9 of 20 45% 13 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:30
Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 41 of 84 48% 37 of 76 2 of 2 2 of 6 9 of 36 3 of 3 29 of 45
Darren Till 26 of 50 52% 14 of 38 8 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 42 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 26 of 51 50% 26 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 3 3 of 16 1 of 1 22 of 34
Darren Till 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 7
Darren Till 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 9 of 20 45% 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 6 of 16 4 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Till

Big Brady picks Darren Till to win by knockout, citing Till's power and Brunson's questionable chin and cardio. He notes that Till has faced much tougher competition recently (Whittaker, Gastelum, Masvidal, Woodley) compared to Brunson's lower-level opponents. However, he is hesitant because Till is very low volume (max 49 sig strikes in a fight) and Brunson is a strong wrestler who could out-grapple Till. Brady thinks the line is off (Till -180) and would not bet the moneyline, preferring the knockout prop.

Till by knockout prop recommended; moneyline not recommended
"I am going to pick darren till by knockout darren brunson has been finished a handful of times i don't think he has the best chin and it only takes one shot from darren till"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody thinks Till should win but is hesitant at -180, noting Till's low volume and tendency to be reserved. He suggests waiting for a live line after the first round to get a better price. He acknowledges Brunson's wrestling and chain takedowns could cause problems, but believes Till's power and durability will allow him to get a late finish in a five-round fight.

Live bet after round 1 for better price
"if you're going with darren till i think you wait on it i think that's the move you're going to get a much better price betting him lives"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Till

I believe Till is an elite striker and Brunson's takedowns will be harder to secure against Till's 82% takedown defense. Brunson's striking is not on the same level, and Till's power is real—he's dropped five of nine opponents. Even if Brunson gets early takedowns, Till's get-up game is good enough to work back up. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Till as Brunson's desperation takedowns fail. I'm confident Till wins, likely by decision or late KO.

Till by KO +135, Till round 3 +950, Till round 4 +1550, Till round 5 +2350, Till by decision +400
"I really like Till in this spot... I feel like he's gonna be prepared for this fight... I think he starts to take over and then eventually finds that knockout blow."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Paul is taking Brunson as a plus money underdog, citing Till's low volume and Brunson's improved fight IQ and wrestling. He notes Brunson has been cashing as a dog recently and that Till's kryptonite is what Brunson does—wrestling and pressure. He believes Brunson can get takedowns and grind out a win, especially if the fight goes into later rounds where Till's hesitancy costs him.

Small shot on Brunson at +150
"i'm gonna take a shot on derrick brunson i mean even even you said it's like early on brunson's probably go you're gonna get a better price in live markets i'm not willing to wait i'll just take the guy …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till to win by first-round TKO. He believes Till's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Brunson, who is hesitant on the feet and has been KO'd multiple times. He notes that if Till cannot beat Brunson, he will never be a champion. He expects a slow first round with Brunson attempting a takedown and Till countering with a left hook to finish.

first round tko
"i think darren till's got this one against derrick branson and i'll be honest with you if he doesn't beat derrick branson he'll never be anything"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 69 of 157 43% 100 of 188 2 of 13 15% 0 0 2:29
Darren Till 0 41 of 99 41% 50 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 11 of 30 36% 13 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 12 of 24 50% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Robert Whittaker 1 15 of 30 50% 42 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:48
Darren Till 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robert Whittaker 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Darren Till 0 6 of 21 28% 6 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Robert Whittaker 0 13 of 34 38% 14 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Darren Till 0 8 of 19 42% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Robert Whittaker 0 17 of 31 54% 18 of 32 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:33
Darren Till 0 12 of 23 52% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 69 of 157 43% 32 of 116 7 of 10 30 of 31 57 of 139 7 of 11 5 of 7
Darren Till 41 of 99 41% 29 of 86 7 of 8 5 of 5 31 of 87 7 of 9 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 11 of 30 36% 4 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 6 10 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 12 of 24 50% 8 of 20 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 18 3 of 3 3 of 3
2 Robert Whittaker 15 of 30 50% 7 of 22 1 of 1 7 of 7 10 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 7
Darren Till 3 of 12 25% 0 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 13 of 32 40% 8 of 26 0 of 1 5 of 5 11 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
Darren Till 6 of 21 28% 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Robert Whittaker 13 of 34 38% 7 of 26 1 of 2 5 of 6 12 of 31 1 of 3 0 of 0
Darren Till 8 of 19 42% 6 of 16 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Robert Whittaker 17 of 31 54% 6 of 20 4 of 4 7 of 7 14 of 26 3 of 5 0 of 0
Darren Till 12 of 23 52% 10 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Whittaker because he believes Whittaker is the more talented fighter and will throw more volume. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after the Adesanya KO, but thinks if it holds up, Whittaker runs away with it. He is not impressed with Till's recent win over Gastelum and sees Till as basic. He predicts a decision win for Whittaker.

Whittaker by decision
"I just see him doing more I think he's that more talented fighter honestly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel leans Whittaker, citing his power and strength, but acknowledges Till's late-round success and hunger. He notes Whittaker's defensive flaws and Till's limited but effective striking. He sees a possible second-round knockout for Whittaker but is not confident, calling it a dog-or-pass fight from a betting perspective.

dog or pass from betting perspective
"i slightly do lean whitaker... i feel like he has more power i feel like till is good and he's got good timing... but from a betting perspective it would be dog or pass for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker is the better overall striker with superior movement and combination punching. He will be able to cover range effectively and land blitzes, while Till may struggle with Whittaker's speed and variety. Whittaker's chin is not completely shot despite the Adesanya KO, and he should shake off rust and finish Till in the third or fourth round.

Whittaker by TKO in round 3 or 4
"i do like whitaker to win this fight i think he's actually even gonna knock out derentel probably in the third or fourth round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till, arguing that elite strikers beat Robert Whittaker, citing Whittaker's losses to Israel Adesanya and Stephen Thompson. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after wars with Romero and the Adesanya KO, while Till has had time to recover and adjust to middleweight. He predicts Till will catch Whittaker lunging in with a left hand and finish him by TKO in the second round.

TKO in the second round
"I think that Darren Till wins. I really do. I think Elite Strikers beat Robert Whitaker."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Till 0 40 of 81 49% 50 of 96 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:43
Kelvin Gastelum 0 36 of 67 53% 37 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Till 0 11 of 23 47% 15 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
Kelvin Gastelum 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Darren Till 0 14 of 25 56% 18 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Kelvin Gastelum 0 12 of 23 52% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Darren Till 0 15 of 33 45% 17 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:27
Kelvin Gastelum 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Till 40 of 81 49% 8 of 41 11 of 14 21 of 26 26 of 63 14 of 18 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 36 of 67 53% 19 of 48 2 of 2 15 of 17 34 of 61 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Till 11 of 23 47% 1 of 8 2 of 4 8 of 11 2 of 11 9 of 12 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 7 of 16 43% 2 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 6 6 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Darren Till 14 of 25 56% 2 of 11 4 of 5 8 of 9 12 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 12 of 23 52% 5 of 15 1 of 1 6 of 7 11 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Darren Till 15 of 33 45% 5 of 22 5 of 5 5 of 6 12 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 17 of 28 60% 12 of 23 1 of 1 4 of 4 17 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Jorge Masvidal
KO (punches) R2 3:05 · UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Mar 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 1 21 of 43 48% 22 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Darren Till 1 35 of 72 48% 41 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 13 of 27 48% 14 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Darren Till 0 19 of 39 48% 24 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
2 Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Darren Till 1 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 21 of 43 48% 17 of 39 3 of 3 1 of 1 20 of 39 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 35 of 72 48% 18 of 51 10 of 12 7 of 9 31 of 65 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 13 of 27 48% 10 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 19 of 39 48% 10 of 27 6 of 8 3 of 4 17 of 34 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jorge Masvidal 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 33 48% 8 of 24 4 of 4 4 of 5 14 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
LOSS vs Tyron Woodley
Submission (brabo choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 79 72% 74 of 97 0 of 4 0% 1 0 5:29
Darren Till 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 11 of 23 47% 16 of 28 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Tyron Woodley 1 46 of 56 82% 58 of 69 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:06
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 79 72% 47 of 67 7 of 9 3 of 3 7 of 19 5 of 6 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 11 of 23 47% 3 of 13 5 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 46 of 56 82% 44 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · May 27, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Till 0 30 of 126 23% 31 of 127 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 1 38 of 126 30% 40 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Till 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Darren Till 0 6 of 28 21% 6 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Darren Till 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 9 of 32 28% 9 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Darren Till 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 7 of 33 21% 7 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
5 Darren Till 0 3 of 23 13% 4 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 1 9 of 24 37% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Till 30 of 126 23% 8 of 92 13 of 19 9 of 15 29 of 125 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 38 of 126 30% 18 of 87 5 of 12 15 of 27 34 of 121 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Till 5 of 18 27% 0 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 7 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 4 of 12 33% 0 of 6 1 of 2 3 of 4 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Darren Till 6 of 28 21% 1 of 22 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 9 of 25 36% 2 of 13 2 of 3 5 of 9 7 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Darren Till 8 of 31 25% 3 of 24 3 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 9 of 32 28% 7 of 25 0 of 2 2 of 5 9 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Darren Till 8 of 26 30% 3 of 20 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 7 of 33 21% 4 of 26 0 of 1 3 of 6 6 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Darren Till 3 of 23 13% 1 of 17 1 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 9 of 24 37% 5 of 17 2 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R1 4:20 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Till · Oct 21, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Donald Cerrone 1 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Donald Cerrone 1 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 2 of 8 5 of 8 7 of 8 13 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 24 of 55 43% 23 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1 18 of 40 4 of 11 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 2 of 8 5 of 8 7 of 8 13 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 24 of 55 43% 23 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1 18 of 40 4 of 11 2 of 4
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Whittaker because he believes Whittaker is the more talented fighter and will throw more volume. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after the Adesanya KO, but thinks if it holds up, Whittaker runs away with it. He is not impressed with Till's recent win over Gastelum and sees Till as basic. He predicts a decision win for Whittaker.

Whittaker by decision
"I just see him doing more I think he's that more talented fighter honestly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel leans Whittaker, citing his power and strength, but acknowledges Till's late-round success and hunger. He notes Whittaker's defensive flaws and Till's limited but effective striking. He sees a possible second-round knockout for Whittaker but is not confident, calling it a dog-or-pass fight from a betting perspective.

dog or pass from betting perspective
"i slightly do lean whitaker... i feel like he has more power i feel like till is good and he's got good timing... but from a betting perspective it would be dog or pass for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker is the better overall striker with superior movement and combination punching. He will be able to cover range effectively and land blitzes, while Till may struggle with Whittaker's speed and variety. Whittaker's chin is not completely shot despite the Adesanya KO, and he should shake off rust and finish Till in the third or fourth round.

Whittaker by TKO in round 3 or 4
"i do like whitaker to win this fight i think he's actually even gonna knock out derentel probably in the third or fourth round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till, arguing that elite strikers beat Robert Whittaker, citing Whittaker's losses to Israel Adesanya and Stephen Thompson. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after wars with Romero and the Adesanya KO, while Till has had time to recover and adjust to middleweight. He predicts Till will catch Whittaker lunging in with a left hand and finish him by TKO in the second round.

TKO in the second round
"I think that Darren Till wins. I really do. I think Elite Strikers beat Robert Whitaker."