UFC 211: Miocic vs. dos Santos 2 · May 13, 2017 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 211: Miocic vs. dos Santos 2 Next Fight
Age 48
Height 6' 1"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 41
Height 5' 11"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Demian Maia
1.8 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
2.07 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
2.49 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jorge Masvidal
4.05 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.05 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
1.38 TD Avg
59.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Demian Maia - Fight History
LOSS vs Belal Muhammad
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 53 39% 23 of 55 1 of 21 4% 0 0 4:14
Demian Maia 0 45 of 127 35% 92 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 2 of 5 40% 4 of 7 1 of 11 9% 0 0 2:30
Demian Maia 0 5 of 21 23% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:46
Demian Maia 0 19 of 47 40% 34 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 12 of 29 41% 12 of 29 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
Demian Maia 0 21 of 59 35% 48 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 21 of 53 39% 21 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0 20 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 45 of 127 35% 38 of 119 3 of 4 4 of 4 43 of 123 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 5 of 21 23% 5 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 19 of 47 40% 14 of 41 1 of 2 4 of 4 18 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 12 of 29 41% 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 21 of 59 35% 19 of 57 2 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Demian Maia vs. Belal Muhammad

Round 1
This next match at welterweight is a grappler’s delight, as the legendary submission specialist Maia (28-10, 22-10 UFC) will try to become the first man to tap out the durable Muhammad (18-3, 1 NC; 9-3 UFC). Enjoying this fight with the best seat in the house is referee Jason Herzog, and the two have nothing but respect for one another and touch gloves. Muhammad reaches out with several punches, and the Brazilian is right there to greet him with punches. Maia eats a few on the chin and shoots in low for a takedown, but it gets stuffed with ease. Maia comes out with a solid right hand that surprises Muhammad, and he uses this to pursue a single from afar. The grappling legend keeps the left leg elevated as he continues to pursue it, but he has to abandon it when Muhammad sprawls against the fence properly. Maia goes back after the submission, and he rips Muhammad’s knee out from beneath him to secure the takedown. Muhammad’s eyes are wide as he is surprised that this happened to him, and he walks up to his feet to stand back up. Muhammad lifts his leg all the way in the air to break the grip, and he backs away to get his feet from beneath him. Muhammad answers with a solid right hand, and he pushes away a leaping takedown attempt from Maia shortly thereafter. Muhammad has his leg grabbed again, and he hops back to the fence to keep his balance. Maia eats an elbow as he pursues the single, but Muhammad is able to put his leg down for a moment and pull it back. Maia backs away and evades the punches that come his way, but a left hand finds its home on his chin. A stiff jab from Muhammad backs Maia off, and Maia fakes a takedown to draw out a reaction. Maia puts another attempt on Muhammad with the single, and he lifts the leg up high to take Muhammad down but cannot get it. Muhammad hops to and fro with his back on the wire, and Maia sticks to him like glue as he is intent on putting Muhammad on his back. Muhammad is able to put his leg down to the ground again, and he uses the other to sling a head kick that gets blocked right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Maia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maia

Round 2
There is a quick glove touch to start off the round, and Maia follows it with a left hand. Muhammad kicks the lead leg and hops back before Maia can snatch it up. The American gets off a few jabs here and there as he tries to find his range and keep a safe distance, timing uppercut feints and marking up Maia’s nose with strikes. Maia lunges forward with a looping left hand that hits nothing but air, and there is a lengthy stalemate as they look for angles. Maia drops down for a low single, and Muhammad sticks him with punches from far out. Maia turns a punch to a takedown attempt in the center of the cage, and Muhammad sprawls and stops it from happening. Muhammad makes him pay with a right hand after breaking up the attempt, and he swats away a few half-hearted punches from the Brazilian. Maia pursues another takedown, and Muhammad jumps far away to get out of harm’s way. Muhammad stings Maia with crisp punch combinations, and he hurts Maia with a right hand as he is feeling more comfortable to let his hands go. Muhammad paws out several left hands to break up Maia’s forward movement, and he kicks the lead leg hard. Maia tries to take him down, but his attempts are more labored and Muhammad sees it coming from a mile away. “Remember the Name” makes Maia remember his fists as he introduces them to Maia’s chin a few times, until Maia charges in for a desperate single leg takedown. When the Brazilian lifts the leg up, Muhammad keeps his balance and stays upright. When Maia tries for one last takedown, Muhammad defends with elbows on the side of the head until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 3
There is one final touch of gloves for the last round, and Muhammad is more comfortable in the center of the cage as he jabs his way out. Maia gets one back, but Muhammad triples up on jabs. Maia dives for a takedown, and Muhammad springs out of danger without much concern. Muhammad gets off a head kick that still does damage even though it is fully blocked, and a right hand hurts the 43-year-old. Maia wings a left hand, but Muhammad’s strikes are more accurate and quicker. There is another head kick from Muhammad, and when it gets blocked, the Roufusport product sticks Maia with a jab. Maia shoots low for a single, and Muhammad does not seem concerned as he stops it once more. Muhammad jabs and continues to redden Maia’s face up, and a clubbing left hand frustrates Maia. Muhammad staves off a feeble single so that he can chain punches together, and he tees off on the fading Brazilian with combinations. Maia can do little but flirt with takedowns, and Muhammad drills him with a shovel uppercut but gets caught with an overhand left. Muhammad pulls his leg back before it gets snagged, and Maia telegraphs these shots every time and does not vary his approach. Muhammad aims a head kick at him, but it too is blocked. Maia crashes forward with a single, and “Remember the Name” posts a stellar takedown defense rate when he stops that one from succeeding. Muhammad protects his leg when Maia latches on to it, punching the Brazilian in the side of the head as Maia lumbers towards him. Muhammad is forced to defend single after single, and Maia lifts the leg but cannot ground him. The gritty fight comes to an end in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (29-28 Muhammad)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (29-28 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (29-28 Muhammad)

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Demian Maia via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks Belal Muhammad, citing his youth, cardio, and volume advantage. He is concerned about Muhammad's untested takedown defense against a grappler like Maia, but believes Maia's age (43) will be a factor. He expects Muhammad to win a decision, possibly 29-28 or 30-27.

Muhammad by decision
"i'm gonna take muhammad um i just don't feel all that great about it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Demian Maia

Cody sees this as a dog or pass situation. He notes Maia's age and slow striking but believes if Maia gets takedowns, he can submit Muhammad. He is interested in a small sprinkle on Maia by submission at +400, as Maia has a history of taking down better wrestlers.

Maia by submission (+400)
"i'm interested in maya by sub"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad, stating that no 43-year-old is beating him. He emphasizes Muhammad's pace and cardio, and that Maia's blueprint has been exposed. He expects Muhammad to outwork Maia, especially in later rounds, and predicts a dominant decision. He calls Muhammad the most sure thing among the favorites.

by decision (30-26 or 29-27)
"no 43 year old is beating balaam muhammad in a fight period"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Demian Maia

Maia's jiu-jitsu is a level above anyone Muhammad has faced. Muhammad is a jack-of-all-trades but lacks a finishing threat, while Maia can latch on and submit him. Muhammad's takedown defense hasn't been tested by a grappler of Maia's caliber. Maia's age and cardio are concerns, but he should find a submission in the early rounds.

Maia by submission (+400), Maia by second-round submission
"I'm going to go with Demian Maia and I'm going to take him to win this fight via submission... sprinkle that sub prop because I do think it could be lively here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul agrees it's a dog or pass situation. He notes Maia's age and the fact that Muhammad has never faced a wrestler, but he doesn't have a strong lean either way. He is not interested in laying the wood on Muhammad at -230.

"i think it's a dog or pass situation regardless"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The MMA Guru picks Belal Muhammad, believing Maia is past his prime with lowered testosterone. He notes Muhammad's cardio, takedown defense, and recent experience against Leon Edwards. He expects Muhammad to lose the first round to Maia's grappling but come back in rounds 2 and 3 with volume, winning a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going with balaam muhammad okay i really believe he wins this one"
LOSS vs Gilbert Burns
TKO (punches) R1 2:34 · UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Mar 14, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:24
Demian Maia 1 13 of 16 81% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:24
Demian Maia 1 13 of 16 81% 14 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 13 of 16 81% 10 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 13 of 16 81% 10 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Demian Maia vs. Gilbert Burns

Round 1
In the only bout of the evening between two fighters representing Brazil, two of the most highly decorated submission artists in the welterweight division face off when Maia (28-9, 22-9 UFC) tests his skills against Burns (17-3, 10-3 UFC). Together, the two have submitted a healthy 22 opponents across their 45 victories, and referee Osiris Maia will be the third Brazilian in the cage. They race to the center of the Octagon, and Maia sticks out a jab but it is Burns that throws something of note first, in the form of a right hand that misses. Burns lands a leg kick, while Maia scores a left hook. Burns scores two more kicks, and Maia comes back with that same left. Maia is pushing the pace in Burns, with a left hand that does little more than set up a single leg takedown. Burns nearly welcomes the takedown, fishing for a heel hook before abandoning it to stand up. The former title challenger keeps on him, nearly taking Burns’ back while pushing him against the fence and threatening with another takedown. As Burns tries to roll, Maia fishes for a rear-naked choke, and gets a hook in as Burns fights off the arm that wraps around his throat.
Burns slips out the back door and stands back up before anything comes from it, and blasts Maia with a monster left hook. Maia crumples to the canvas, and Burns celebrates by throwing his arms in the air.
He looks to the referee to call the fight, but none come, so Burns chases after him and swarms him with punches until the ref stops the action. This is an enormous win for Burns, who smashes a top-five opponent with style points, and immediately stakes his claim as an elite fighter in the division.

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Demian Maia R1 2:34 via TKO (Punches)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Daniel picks Burns, citing his power and youth. He thinks Maia's stand-up is a liability and that Burns can hurt him. He notes Burns has the jiu-jitsu to avoid submissions and predicts a decision win for Burns.

"i'ma go with Gilbert burns imma go with the younger guy and I think that uh he hurts my somewhere along the way and one's a decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The host picks Gilbert Burns over Demian Maia. He notes that Maia has not been submitting opponents recently, as seen in his fight with Anthony Rocco Martin. Burns is a three-time BJJ world champion and will be able to stay out of submissions. He expects Burns to win by third-round TKO, as Maia fades in later rounds due to age and weight cut. He calls Burns an underdog but believes he has this fight in the bag.

third round TKO, underdog
"Gilbert burns by TKO I'm calling it as an underdog I think he's got this one in the bag"
WIN vs Ben Askren
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 3:54 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · Oct 26, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Demian Maia 0 69 of 122 56% 84 of 137 0 of 0 --- 1 2 1:29
Ben Askren 0 63 of 127 49% 102 of 168 4 of 7 57% 0 1 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Demian Maia 0 28 of 54 51% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Askren 0 27 of 45 60% 44 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
2 Demian Maia 0 23 of 44 52% 31 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:38
Ben Askren 0 22 of 53 41% 31 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:35
3 Demian Maia 0 18 of 24 75% 22 of 28 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:51
Ben Askren 0 14 of 29 48% 27 of 44 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Demian Maia 69 of 122 56% 44 of 88 25 of 34 0 of 0 49 of 99 17 of 20 3 of 3
Ben Askren 63 of 127 49% 54 of 116 4 of 6 5 of 5 46 of 108 11 of 13 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Demian Maia 28 of 54 51% 16 of 36 12 of 18 0 of 0 18 of 41 10 of 13 0 of 0
Ben Askren 27 of 45 60% 21 of 39 2 of 2 4 of 4 17 of 35 8 of 8 2 of 2
2 Demian Maia 23 of 44 52% 15 of 33 8 of 11 0 of 0 19 of 40 3 of 3 1 of 1
Ben Askren 22 of 53 41% 21 of 50 0 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 47 2 of 4 2 of 2
3 Demian Maia 18 of 24 75% 13 of 19 5 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 18 4 of 4 2 of 2
Ben Askren 14 of 29 48% 12 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 26 1 of 1 2 of 2
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. dos Santos · Jun 29, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Demian Maia 0 3 of 12 25% 74 of 86 3 of 9 33% 0 1 6:02
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 22 of 95 23% 36 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Demian Maia 0 2 of 5 40% 31 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:42
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 3 of 15 20% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
2 Demian Maia 0 0 of 3 0% 42 of 48 2 of 5 40% 0 1 3:20
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 3 of 16 18% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Demian Maia 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Anthony Rocco Martin 0 16 of 64 25% 20 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Demian Maia 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anthony Rocco Martin 22 of 95 23% 13 of 81 7 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 86 1 of 1 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Demian Maia 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anthony Rocco Martin 3 of 15 20% 2 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Demian Maia 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Rocco Martin 3 of 16 18% 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Demian Maia 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Rocco Martin 16 of 64 25% 8 of 53 7 of 10 1 of 1 11 of 56 0 of 0 5 of 8
WIN vs Lyman Good
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:38 · UFC Fight Night: Assunção vs. Moraes 2 · Feb 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Demian Maia 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 2 of 4 50% 2 0 2:12
Lyman Good 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Demian Maia 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 2 of 4 50% 2 0 2:12
Lyman Good 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Demian Maia 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lyman Good 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Demian Maia 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lyman Good 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · May 19, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 27 of 87 31% 33 of 94 0 of 15 0% 0 0 2:01
Demian Maia 1 66 of 209 31% 97 of 244 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 5 of 12 41% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:01
Demian Maia 0 12 of 29 41% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 0 7 of 18 38% 8 of 20 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 12 of 47 25% 16 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
3 Kamaru Usman 0 4 of 25 16% 4 of 25 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 13 of 53 24% 16 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
4 Kamaru Usman 0 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 1 16 of 42 38% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
5 Kamaru Usman 0 7 of 23 30% 7 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 13 of 38 34% 20 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 27 of 87 31% 26 of 85 1 of 2 0 of 0 25 of 85 1 of 1 1 of 1
Demian Maia 66 of 209 31% 49 of 181 4 of 12 13 of 16 55 of 187 1 of 5 10 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 12 of 29 41% 6 of 22 0 of 1 6 of 6 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kamaru Usman 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 12 of 47 25% 9 of 43 1 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 43 1 of 3 1 of 1
3 Kamaru Usman 4 of 25 16% 4 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 13 of 53 24% 9 of 44 2 of 5 2 of 4 13 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 2
4 Kamaru Usman 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 16 of 42 38% 14 of 38 0 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 33 0 of 0 6 of 9
5 Kamaru Usman 7 of 23 30% 6 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1
Demian Maia 13 of 38 34% 11 of 34 1 of 2 1 of 2 10 of 31 0 of 2 3 of 5
LOSS vs Colby Covington
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Oct 28, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Covington 0 53 of 151 35% 59 of 157 0 of 13 0% 0 0 0:02
Demian Maia 0 88 of 317 27% 121 of 351 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Covington 0 29 of 66 43% 31 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Demian Maia 0 37 of 125 29% 44 of 132 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Colby Covington 0 11 of 38 28% 12 of 39 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 22 of 83 26% 25 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
3 Colby Covington 0 13 of 47 27% 16 of 50 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 29 of 109 26% 52 of 133 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Covington 53 of 151 35% 53 of 149 0 of 1 0 of 1 51 of 148 2 of 3 0 of 0
Demian Maia 88 of 317 27% 65 of 286 1 of 4 22 of 27 81 of 304 4 of 8 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Covington 29 of 66 43% 29 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0 29 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 37 of 125 29% 18 of 99 1 of 4 18 of 22 37 of 125 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Colby Covington 11 of 38 28% 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 1 11 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 22 of 83 26% 20 of 80 0 of 0 2 of 3 20 of 77 2 of 5 0 of 1
3 Colby Covington 13 of 47 27% 13 of 46 0 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Demian Maia 29 of 109 26% 27 of 107 0 of 0 2 of 2 24 of 102 2 of 3 3 of 4
LOSS vs Tyron Woodley
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Jul 29, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 153 37% 57 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Demian Maia 0 28 of 89 31% 29 of 90 0 of 21 0% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:38
2 Tyron Woodley 1 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Demian Maia 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tyron Woodley 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 5 of 25 20% 5 of 25 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:11
5 Tyron Woodley 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 8 of 20 40% 9 of 21 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 153 37% 40 of 131 13 of 18 4 of 4 56 of 152 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 28 of 89 31% 23 of 83 2 of 3 3 of 3 26 of 87 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 6 of 18 33% 5 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 14 of 29 48% 9 of 24 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 12 of 41 29% 9 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 24 33% 6 of 22 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 15 of 39 38% 11 of 32 4 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 5 of 25 20% 4 of 23 0 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Tyron Woodley 10 of 26 38% 6 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 20 40% 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal - Fight History
LOSS vs Gilbert Burns
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 42 of 99 42% 72 of 135 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:41
Jorge Masvidal 0 39 of 91 42% 77 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 13 of 39 33% 15 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Jorge Masvidal 0 15 of 38 39% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gilbert Burns 0 7 of 16 43% 27 of 40 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:05
Jorge Masvidal 0 5 of 11 45% 32 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Gilbert Burns 0 22 of 44 50% 30 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:30
Jorge Masvidal 0 19 of 42 45% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 42 of 99 42% 34 of 84 3 of 7 5 of 8 37 of 90 0 of 0 5 of 9
Jorge Masvidal 39 of 91 42% 14 of 61 8 of 11 17 of 19 38 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 13 of 39 33% 7 of 29 3 of 6 3 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 15 of 38 39% 5 of 26 2 of 2 8 of 10 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gilbert Burns 7 of 16 43% 6 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 3 5 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 5 of 11 45% 1 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Gilbert Burns 22 of 44 50% 21 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1 20 of 41 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 19 of 42 45% 8 of 29 3 of 5 8 of 8 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-490), Masvidal (+390)

Round 1
The loudest pop of the evening almost certainly goes to Miami’s own Masvidal (35-16, 12-9 UFC), who walks out to this tough stylistic matchup as a heavy underdog on a losing streak. In his face for a maximum of three rounds will be “Durinho” Burns (21-5, 14-5 UFC), who can present problems on the feet and ground, depending on where his mood takes him. Action is virtually a guarantee here, and the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard looks on. With ample respect, the gloves get touched when Goddard brings them together. There is no flying knee try from Masvidal, for those expecting him to come out firing this. Burns walks forward, but Masvidal takes the center of the cage. The two are hesitant to engage with little more than jabs, other than a single low kick from “Gamebred.” Burns throws one back, and they proceed to go tit-for-tat with these slapping strikes. Chants for “305” and “Let’s Go Jorge” rain down, but it does not spur the local fighter into action. Burns whiffs on a left hook, and neither man seems willing to commit to anything of note. Burns reaches out with a few jabs that miss the mark, but a right hand splits the guard and draws a smile from his opponent. Burns darts in with a straight right, and Masvidal slides out of the way and resets. Masvidal blitzes suddenly with three punches and a leg kick, and the crowd goes wild. Masvidal sinks another kick home on the lead calf, and Burns replies with a leg kick and one to the ribs. Masvidal sticks his tongue out, and Burns attacks with a pair of looping, blocked punches. Burns ducks a big punch and nearly takes the fight down, but Masvidal moves out of the way before he gets tripped. The Brazilian lands a single kick to the body, and he switches stances a few times and catches Masvidal with a right hand. Masvidal connects with another leg kick, and Burns chops down low. Masvidal surges into action, throwing a few heavy punches, but a left hand from Burns keeps him honest. Burns loops a right hand around the guard, and Masvidal shakes it off and pins three punches on the guard. Burns cracks him with a serious right hand, and Masvidal waves him on. Burns slings a right hand, changes levels and throws Masvidal to the ground. Burns postures up, flailing punches, and Masvidal goes crazy throwing offense from his back. The round ends, and the two high five.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
The second round opens up with Burns pushing forth a jab, and he slams his fist onto Masvidal’s jaw and knocks him off his feet. Masvidal jumps back to his feet, but Burns meets him with a double. When Masvidal defends with a guillotine, Burns simply lifts him off the ground like a sack of flour and slams him down to the ground. Burns lands in the guard and Masvidal is quickly warned for punches to the back of the head. Burns maintains heavy top pressure while getting off occasional strikes, but Goddard asks him to do more. Masvidal hangs on in hopes of forcing a standup, and Burns is unable to get off much offense from above. Goddard again tells Burns to work, and Masvidal clings to him to shut it down. Burns slashes down with a single elbow, and Masvidal works his way to put his head and neck against the wire. Burns partially stands up to step over, but Masvidal wall-walks at the same time and somersaults to break the grip. This backfires, as Burns takes his back and hangs onto it while Masvidal stands. Burns slams “Gamebred” on his face in a subsequent takedown, and Masvidal leans up against the wall and even threatens the BJJ world champion with a guillotine choke. Burns completely ignores it, and Masvidal manages to fight back to his feet. Burns presses him tightly in the clinch, and Masvidal spins him around and knees him a few times. Burns turns him back around, and he gets pushed back to split them up with 30 seconds to spare. Masvidal wings an inaccurate right hand, and he plants his shin on the body. Burns runs at him with his hands flying, and they both clash together with right hands. Burns acknowledges it, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The fighters touch ‘em up to open the final frame, and Burns puts his foot upside the head. Masvidal shrugs it off and chops the calf with a single strike. The crowd puts its support behind the local competitor, and Burns punches him square in the face with his right hand. Masvidal blocks a lunging right hook but eats a pair of jabs. Masvidal gets off a strong low kick, and he comes up short on an uppercut. The leg kicks continue working for “Gamebred,” whose offense is otherwise generally muted. Masvidal suddenly spins with a back kick to the body, and Burns steps through it and snipes Masvidal with a left. Burns lands another, and Masvidal smiles at him. Burns lands a one-two on the chin, and Masvidal wobbles back to the fence and waves Burns on. A home run of a right hand skims off the chin, and Masvidal is still rocked but survives it. Masvidal gets some space and appears to have the cobwebs shaken out, as he puts a one-two on the Brazilian’s jaw. Burns lets his hands fly and smashes Masvidal in the face, and Masvidal again stumbles back to the fence. Burns jabs instead of falling into a Masvidal trap, so Masvidal kicks his foe’s lead leg and flashes out his own jab. Burns lands a left and a right, and “Gamebred” toughs it out and gets Burns’ respect with a few punches. The Brazilian changes levels in pursuit of a takedown, and Masvidal stands him up. Burns continues to go after it, and he trips Masvidal and throws him on his back, where he lands in side control. Burns slams Masvidal in the face with elbows, and he moves to half guard to keep Masvidal pinned to the mat. Burns considers an arm-triangle choke, but Masvidal uses two-on-one wrist control to stifle it. Masvidal is warned for grabbing inside the gloves, and Burns slides around to nearly take the back. Masvidal works to his knees, and the fight comes to a close. After the scores are read, Burns calls for a title shot. Masvidal, however, takes his gloves off and calls it a career after "20 long years."

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Jorge Masvidal via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Angelo picks Gilbert Burns but is not betting due to the steep -450 odds. He notes that Masvidal has solid takedown defense and good hands, and if the fight stays on the feet, Masvidal is the better striker. He thinks Burns will grind out a win but is wary of Masvidal's ability to defend takedowns and potentially win a decision in his hometown.

"I do think Gilbert Burns wins this fight but I am not going anywhere near these minus 450 odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Big Brady picks Gilbert Burns to win by decision, citing his wrestling advantage and Masvidal's age. He notes Burns should take the fight to the mat and control Masvidal, who has good takedown defense but can be controlled once taken down. He does not see a finish and warns against betting at -500 odds.

not laying minus 500
"give me Burns I'll say Burns by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody picks Burns but is hesitant at -450. He notes Masvidal is very difficult to take down, as shown in five-round fights against Usman and Covington. Cody thinks Burns wins 8 out of 10 times but sees value on Masvidal due to the Florida crowd and Masvidal's power. He mentions PrizePicks under 2.5 takedowns for Burns as a potential play because Burns might not wrestle or could get a quick submission.

Burns under 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I'm going to be picking Burns but... the fact that we're in Florida... it's not making me feel like oh lock burns up in parlays"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Connor picks Burns because Masvidal has regressed significantly: his boxing has become sloppy, he relies on trick shots that he's no longer fast enough to land, and he lets opponents dictate the fight. Burns is aggressive, assertive, and will take full advantage of Masvidal's tendency to back up and corner himself. Connor notes that Masvidal used to be a great scrambler and wrestler, but now he seems to hate grappling and makes poor decisions. He also mentions Masvidal's ego and age have eroded his game.

Burns opened around -420, now -455; Masvidal opened around +350, now +370. Connor says the line is wide and getting wider, and it doesn't feel inaccurate.
"Gilbert Burns is going to run him over."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Jacob is extremely confident in Gilbert Burns, calling Masvidal overrated and saying he is here to collect a check. He believes Burns will take Masvidal down, slam him, and submit him. He notes that Masvidal has only defended wrestlers like Usman and Colby, but Burns is a powerful grappler who will use strength and technique to finish the fight.

submission
"Gilbert's Gonna Get Us done first take down submission easy peasy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jorge Masvidal

Masvidal is on a three-fight losing streak but those were against the division's elite. He has slick boxing, deceptive power, and excellent takedown defense and get-up game. Burns is a BJJ specialist but his striking is decent, and he doesn't have the cardio or wrestling to replicate what Colby did to Masvidal. I think Masvidal's striking advantage and the Miami crowd will carry him to a knockout win.

"the line in this fight makes no sense to me at all massive at all even though he's on three in his last three fights should not be a plus 380 Underdog to Gilbert Burns"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul acknowledges the best version of Masvidal could beat Burns, but believes Masvidal at 38 has lost a step and lacks the fire. He notes Masvidal's takedown defense is good but Burns' pressure and wrestling should wear him down. Paul expects Burns to take Masvidal down, control rounds, and win a decision or late finish. He cautions that Masvidal could keep it close in Florida but ultimately picks Burns.

Burns under 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks considered
"I do gotta end up taking Gilbert Burns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Gilbert Burns

The MMA Guru picks Gilbert Burns to drop Masvidal in round one and submit him with an arm triangle. He expects Masvidal to lead with kicks, and Burns will time a right hand over the top, dropping Masvidal. Burns will then take mount, land big shots, and as Masvidal scrambles, he will give up an arm triangle and tap with 30 seconds left in the round.

first round submission, arm triangle
"I think Gilbert Burns is gonna drop masvidal in round one and sub him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Zane picks Burns because Masvidal's game has fallen off: he's slower, gasses now, and his boxing is worse. He used to be a well-rounded technician, but now he looks for highlight-reel shots and doesn't have the speed for them. Burns will out-grapple him and doesn't even need to do that the whole time; he can just pressure Masvidal, who backs up too easily and corners himself. Zane notes that Masvidal's ego and age have combined to make him a shadow of his former self.

Burns opened around -420, now -455; Masvidal opened around +350, now +370. Zane says the line is reasonable and not surprising.
"I would have picked an earlier version of Jorge against an earlier version of Gilbert. But now it just seems like there's a gulf."
LOSS vs Colby Covington
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Covington 0 94 of 201 46% 218 of 338 6 of 15 40% 1 1 16:14
Jorge Masvidal 0 67 of 140 47% 90 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Covington 0 7 of 18 38% 29 of 45 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:32
Jorge Masvidal 0 6 of 17 35% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Colby Covington 0 20 of 58 34% 25 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 1 1:21
Jorge Masvidal 0 31 of 63 49% 36 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
3 Colby Covington 0 21 of 40 52% 62 of 86 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:34
Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 12 66% 19 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Colby Covington 0 33 of 66 50% 37 of 70 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:13
Jorge Masvidal 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Colby Covington 0 13 of 19 68% 65 of 74 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:34
Jorge Masvidal 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Covington 94 of 201 46% 84 of 190 9 of 10 1 of 1 63 of 160 6 of 8 25 of 33
Jorge Masvidal 67 of 140 47% 38 of 94 10 of 19 19 of 27 55 of 125 12 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Covington 7 of 18 38% 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 6 of 17 35% 2 of 8 0 of 3 4 of 6 5 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Colby Covington 20 of 58 34% 16 of 53 3 of 4 1 of 1 19 of 55 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 31 of 63 49% 18 of 42 5 of 8 8 of 13 24 of 54 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Colby Covington 21 of 40 52% 18 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 21 0 of 0 15 of 19
Jorge Masvidal 8 of 12 66% 5 of 7 0 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Colby Covington 33 of 66 50% 32 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0 31 of 64 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 21 of 46 45% 12 of 35 5 of 6 4 of 5 19 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Colby Covington 13 of 19 68% 13 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 14
Jorge Masvidal 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Angelo picks Colby Covington due to his relentless wrestling and high pace. He notes that Covington's non-stop takedowns and pressure will be a problem for Masvidal, similar to the first Usman fight. He mentions that Masvidal has success on the feet but Covington cuts distance quickly. He also references a source from American Top Team saying Covington dominated Masvidal in training but Masvidal would touch him up on the feet.

"the pick here is definitely kobe because i think his non-stop wrestling will be a problem for george"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Big Brady picks Colby Covington to win by decision, citing Covington's relentless wrestling pace and volume striking. He notes that Covington will likely take Masvidal down repeatedly, especially early, and that Masvidal's path to victory is only by knockout. Brady believes Covington's cardio and pressure will be too much for the 37-year-old Masvidal, who has slowed down. He mentions that Covington has successfully implemented this game plan against other top welterweights like Robbie Lawler and Rafael dos Anjos.

Covington by decision
"I like colby to win here probably by i'll say decision for colby covington"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Cody sees Colby as an elite welterweight who pushed Usman to the limit, with superior pace, wrestling, and durability. He believes Colby's chain wrestling and cardio will overwhelm Masvidal, who has poor takedown defense and fades late. Cody has already parlayed Colby with Kevin Holland and also bet Colby by round 5 at +3000, expecting a late finish or decision.

Parlayed with Kevin Holland; Colby Covington round 5 at +3000
"i think he pays off this price in fold i've already parlayed him up with uh with kevin holland a little bit further down the card um and i have colby covington round five at plus three thousand"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Daniel Levi picks Colby Covington to win by unanimous decision. He emphasizes Covington's relentless pace and takedown attempts, noting that even if the first few takedowns are stuffed, Covington will keep shooting and eventually grind down Masvidal. He acknowledges Masvidal's underrated takedown defense and dangerous striking, especially early, but believes Covington's pressure and cardio will be decisive in the later rounds. He also mentions that Covington's recent war with Usman might be a concern but still favors him.

"i'm still going with colby to come out here push the pace on him might be kind of close early but down the stretch i do see just the relentless pace the takedown attempt that's her takedown attempt like like …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Colby Covington is neck and neck with Kamaru Usman, one of the best in the world, and his wrestling threat will force Masvidal to think too much. Covington's cardio, improved striking, and volume will overwhelm Masvidal over five rounds. Masvidal is the better technical striker but lacks the wrestling and cardio to keep up. Covington via decision is the likely outcome.

Covington via decision at -105
"i like covington here the spot that i'm looking to take advantage of though i know jorge got finished in his last fight i think that was just kamar usman and his striking skills uh and power everything just culminating …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Paul argues that Colby is a premier talent while Masvidal is a journeyman with 15 losses and poor takedown defense. He highlights Colby's wrestling pressure and cardio as decisive, noting Masvidal's wins are early finishes and his losses come when opponents survive the first two rounds. Paul plans to bet Colby live if Masvidal is competitive early, expecting Colby to take over in rounds 3-5.

Live betting strategy: bet Colby after round 2 if Masvidal is competitive early
"i am definitely team colby covington on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Colby Covington

The MMA Guru picks Colby Covington over Jorge Masvidal, despite acknowledging Masvidal's KO power and the odds being too wide. He praises Covington's chin, referencing his ability to take clean shots from Kamaru Usman. He predicts Covington will use cage pressure, takedowns, and grinding to wear Masvidal down, eventually securing a rear-naked choke in the fourth round. He notes Masvidal's age, inactivity, and potential rib injury as factors, and believes Covington's active style and improved striking will be key.

method: submission (rear-naked choke), round: 4, odds comment: 'odds are so wrong... should be two to one favorite'
"i'm going to call a colby covington re-naked choke finish in round four"
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
KO (punch) R2 1:02 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 1 21 of 40 52% 32 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:42
Jorge Masvidal 0 31 of 52 59% 56 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 44 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Jorge Masvidal 0 23 of 42 54% 48 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 21 of 40 52% 15 of 32 5 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 30 0 of 0 9 of 10
Jorge Masvidal 31 of 52 59% 13 of 33 3 of 4 15 of 15 27 of 47 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 14 of 30 46% 8 of 22 5 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 5
Jorge Masvidal 23 of 42 54% 12 of 30 2 of 3 9 of 9 19 of 37 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Kamaru Usman 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 5
Jorge Masvidal 8 of 10 80% 1 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 6 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jorge Masvidal

Angelo relays Glover Teixeira's pick of Masvidal, noting that with a full camp Masvidal has takedown defense and striking edge. He agrees with the logic, mentioning Glover's ties to American Top Team and his training with Masvidal. Angelo seems to endorse the pick, calling it good insight.

"i think it's a good pick we got some nice insight there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Usman to win a comfortable decision. He expects Usman to implement his game plan of takedowns, cage control, and foot stomps, grinding out Masvidal. He notes Masvidal has power but Usman has never been KO'd and has excellent takedown defense. He considers Usman a safe parlay piece.

Usman by decision; parlay piece
"give me kamara usman for the win... solid parlay piece"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Usman's wrestling and grinding style. He notes Masvidal's age (36) and journeyman status, and that Usman's jab and clinch work will wear him down. He sees a similar outcome to the first fight, with Usman winning by decision. He mentions the -425 price is in line with an 80% win rate and that Usman by decision is a likely prop.

Usman by decision, over 4.5 rounds, Usman minus 125 (prop for decision)
"i think that the first the way that the first fight plays out is the same thing here he just wears on georgie up against the cage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel picks Kamaru Usman to retain his belt, expecting him to take over in the later rounds as Masvidal fades. He acknowledges Masvidal's improved conditioning with a full camp and his one-punch KO power, but believes Usman's work rate and pressure will be too much. He notes the odds are wide and calls it a dog or pass situation from a betting perspective.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna go with uzmana and still"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

I think Usman will repeat his performance from the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using foot stomps, and controlling the pace. Masvidal is durable and hasn't been finished in 12 years, so a decision is likely. Usman's cardio and wrestling are superior. I like Usman by decision at -130, which improves the moneyline odds.

Usman by decision -130
"i'm going kamar oozman by decision we're getting minus 130 on that line right now i think that's a great line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Paul believes Usman will replicate the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using his wrestling and jab to control the fight. He notes Masvidal's durability and puncher's chance but sees Usman as the superior technician. He expects a decision win, similar to the first fight, and thinks the -425 price is fair but not a value bet.

Usman by decision, over 4.5 rounds, Usman minus 125 (prop for decision)
"i think it's usman oozman by decision all over again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The MMA Guru picks Kamaru Usman by decision. He notes that Usman had a full camp for Masvidal this time, unlike the short-notice first fight, and that Usman's striking has improved under Trevor Whitman. He believes Usman's grappling is too good and that Masvidal hasn't made significant improvements. He predicts Usman will win with a possible 10-8 round, though Masvidal may take the first round.

"i'm gonna go with kamaru osman of course"
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 94 of 151 62% 263 of 341 5 of 16 31% 0 0 16:38
Jorge Masvidal 0 66 of 125 52% 88 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 18 of 40 45% 25 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:36
Jorge Masvidal 0 24 of 43 55% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 0 27 of 32 84% 94 of 107 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:40
Jorge Masvidal 0 20 of 32 62% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 27 51% 46 of 61 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:14
Jorge Masvidal 0 12 of 19 63% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Kamaru Usman 0 23 of 31 74% 75 of 90 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:37
Jorge Masvidal 0 6 of 15 40% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Kamaru Usman 0 12 of 21 57% 23 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:31
Jorge Masvidal 0 4 of 16 25% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 94 of 151 62% 43 of 96 49 of 53 2 of 2 42 of 86 39 of 49 13 of 16
Jorge Masvidal 66 of 125 52% 23 of 69 29 of 39 14 of 17 38 of 90 27 of 34 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 30 7 of 8 2 of 2
Jorge Masvidal 24 of 43 55% 13 of 28 5 of 9 6 of 6 16 of 32 7 of 10 1 of 1
2 Kamaru Usman 27 of 32 84% 10 of 15 17 of 17 0 of 0 11 of 14 16 of 18 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 20 of 32 62% 5 of 16 11 of 12 4 of 4 10 of 21 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 14 of 27 51% 10 of 23 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 14 2 of 5 6 of 8
Jorge Masvidal 12 of 19 63% 2 of 8 6 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 15 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 23 of 31 74% 9 of 15 13 of 15 1 of 1 9 of 14 14 of 17 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 6 of 15 40% 2 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 8 4 of 7 0 of 0
5 Kamaru Usman 12 of 21 57% 7 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 1 5 of 6
Jorge Masvidal 4 of 16 25% 1 of 8 3 of 5 0 of 3 2 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman by comfortable decision, citing Usman's wrestling and takedowns as the key. He notes Masvidal has been taken down often and Usman is a smart fighter who won't stand and trade. He thinks the line should be wider and Masvidal's only chance is a knockout off his back, which is unlikely.

"i see usman uh winning a decision here pretty comfortably ... i think it should be a little bit wider than that honestly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi leans toward Kamaru Usman, citing his full camp, size, wrestling, and cardio. He expects Usman to use a clinch-heavy, grinding game plan to wear down Masvidal. However, he acknowledges Masvidal's momentum and power, and says he wouldn't be surprised by an upset. He picks Usman by decision, but as a fan he roots for Masvidal.

predicts decision win for Usman
"I'll lean with Guzman as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a nightmare matchup for Masvidal with his relentless pace, pressure, cardio, and wrestling. Masvidal's only chance is a Hail Mary strike, but Usman's striking is good enough to close the distance and implement his grappling. The line at -225 is great value; Usman should dominate and win by decision. This is the lock of the night.

lock of the night play, bet at -267
"c'mon lucemon is the better fighter he is gonna win this fight and I've never been so convicted"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The Guru is confident Usman wins, predicting he will maul Masvidal. He notes that Masvidal has a 25% chance of landing something big in the first round but doesn't see it happening. He emphasizes Usman's size, wrestling, and the fact that Masvidal is taking the fight on short notice.

Mentions Masvidal has a 25% chance of winning, says 'mark my words journey man Jorge is getting mauled'
"mark my words journey man Jorge is getting mauled that's my prediction"
WIN vs Nate Diaz
TKO (doctor stoppage) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 2 112 of 179 62% 114 of 184 1 of 1 100% 0 0 6:56
Nate Diaz 0 43 of 104 41% 125 of 194 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 35 of 54 64% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:58
Nate Diaz 0 13 of 27 48% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Jorge Masvidal 1 39 of 58 67% 39 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
Nate Diaz 0 11 of 31 35% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Jorge Masvidal 0 38 of 67 56% 38 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
Nate Diaz 0 19 of 46 41% 57 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 112 of 179 62% 78 of 136 27 of 35 7 of 8 52 of 92 20 of 25 40 of 62
Nate Diaz 43 of 104 41% 23 of 74 12 of 21 8 of 9 33 of 91 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 35 of 54 64% 21 of 34 12 of 18 2 of 2 10 of 15 7 of 9 18 of 30
Nate Diaz 13 of 27 48% 7 of 19 3 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jorge Masvidal 39 of 58 67% 29 of 47 7 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 32 11 of 13 10 of 13
Nate Diaz 11 of 31 35% 4 of 21 4 of 6 3 of 4 9 of 27 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jorge Masvidal 38 of 67 56% 28 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 3 24 of 45 2 of 3 12 of 19
Nate Diaz 19 of 46 41% 12 of 34 5 of 10 2 of 2 16 of 42 3 of 4 0 of 0
WIN vs Ben Askren
KO (flying knee) R1 0:05 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 1 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ben Askren 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ben Askren 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ben Askren 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ben Askren 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Darren Till
KO (punches) R2 3:05 · UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Mar 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 1 21 of 43 48% 22 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Darren Till 1 35 of 72 48% 41 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 13 of 27 48% 14 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Darren Till 0 19 of 39 48% 24 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
2 Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Darren Till 1 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 21 of 43 48% 17 of 39 3 of 3 1 of 1 20 of 39 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 35 of 72 48% 18 of 51 10 of 12 7 of 9 31 of 65 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 13 of 27 48% 10 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 19 of 39 48% 10 of 27 6 of 8 3 of 4 17 of 34 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jorge Masvidal 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 33 48% 8 of 24 4 of 4 4 of 5 14 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Nov 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stephen Thompson 1 70 of 156 44% 70 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jorge Masvidal 0 42 of 142 29% 42 of 142 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stephen Thompson 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jorge Masvidal 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Stephen Thompson 1 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jorge Masvidal 0 14 of 43 32% 14 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
3 Stephen Thompson 0 39 of 86 45% 39 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jorge Masvidal 0 16 of 66 24% 16 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stephen Thompson 70 of 156 44% 49 of 117 17 of 34 4 of 5 70 of 155 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 42 of 142 29% 9 of 79 5 of 13 28 of 50 39 of 137 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stephen Thompson 13 of 27 48% 9 of 19 3 of 6 1 of 2 13 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 12 of 33 36% 0 of 13 2 of 5 10 of 15 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Stephen Thompson 18 of 43 41% 14 of 37 2 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 14 of 43 32% 3 of 23 0 of 3 11 of 17 12 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Stephen Thompson 39 of 86 45% 26 of 61 12 of 24 1 of 1 39 of 85 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 16 of 66 24% 6 of 43 3 of 5 7 of 18 15 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0