UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2

Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with very low confidence, admitting he has flip-flopped. He notes that Pereira has beaten Adesanya three times, including a knockout in their last fight. However, he acknowledges that Adesanya was winning the fight until he got caught, and that Adesanya has bounced back well from losses before. He is just going to enjoy the fight.

Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by third-round knockout, citing Pereira's fight-changing power and pressure. He notes that Adesanya is not a wrestler and will likely strike with Pereira, where Pereira has the advantage in power. He was impressed by Pereira's fifth-round finish in their first fight and believes he can do it again.

Cody agrees with Paul on Pereira at plus money. He doesn't buy into Adesanya's wrestling either, noting his only takedown in the UFC was against Pereira. Cody points out that Pereira trains with Glover Teixeira and has improved his grappling. He also argues that the first fight was closer than people remember, with close rounds, and that the champion's mystique may have influenced scoring. He sees value on Pereira.

Connor picks Pereira because Adesanya has repeatedly fallen into a passive, cautious style that allows Pereira to find his one-punch knockout. Despite Adesanya's technical advantages and ability to hurt Pereira, he has shown a psychological block that prevents him from maintaining aggression. Connor notes that Pereira's counter left hook is always a threat and that Adesanya's defensive footwork is poor, making him vulnerable when he hangs around. He acknowledges that Adesanya could win if he fights aggressively, but he hasn't seen that version consistently.

Jacob is confident in Alex Pereira, questioning how anyone can pick against a guy who is 3-0 against Adesanya. He notes that Adesanya fights scared against Pereira, especially against the fence, and that Pereira's power is a constant threat. He believes Pereira will knock him out again, possibly even quicker this time, as Pereira seems more motivated.

Adesanya is the more complete fighter with more paths to victory. He was winning the first fight until the fifth-round KO. He can implement grappling, leg kicks, and his usual striking to avoid Pereira's power. Pereira is a heavy hitter but has limited grappling and cardio. I think Adesanya's team will adjust, and he wins a decision, though Pereira's power always poses a threat.

Paul sees Alex Pereira as a plus-money champion who has already defeated Adesanya multiple times, including in MMA. He believes Adesanya's wrestling narrative is overblown since he trains at a kickboxing gym and hasn't shown that skill. Paul thinks Pereira will be more confident with MMA experience and can win rounds or land a knockout. He acknowledges it's a close fight but feels the plus money is too good to pass up.

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to win by second-round KO. He expects a similar fight to the first, with Adesanya failing takedown attempts and Pereira winning the clinch with body shots. He predicts Pereira will edge round one, then in round two, he will catch Adesanya with a straight right hand against the cage, rocking him badly and finishing him on the ground. He emphasizes that Pereira will not get rocked at the end of round one this time.

Zane picks Pereira because Adesanya has a history of taking his foot off the gas when he has momentum, allowing Pereira to get back into fights. He points to the Whittaker rematch as instructive, where Adesanya hurt Whittaker but then became passive and never adjusted. Zane believes Adesanya's cautious approach is a mental block, and despite encouraging quotes about being more aggressive, he needs to see it to believe it. He notes that Pereira is a massive middleweight and could have weight-cut issues, but that's not factored into his pick.

Angelo picks Gilbert Burns but is not betting due to the steep -450 odds. He notes that Masvidal has solid takedown defense and good hands, and if the fight stays on the feet, Masvidal is the better striker. He thinks Burns will grind out a win but is wary of Masvidal's ability to defend takedowns and potentially win a decision in his hometown.

Big Brady picks Gilbert Burns to win by decision, citing his wrestling advantage and Masvidal's age. He notes Burns should take the fight to the mat and control Masvidal, who has good takedown defense but can be controlled once taken down. He does not see a finish and warns against betting at -500 odds.

Cody picks Burns but is hesitant at -450. He notes Masvidal is very difficult to take down, as shown in five-round fights against Usman and Covington. Cody thinks Burns wins 8 out of 10 times but sees value on Masvidal due to the Florida crowd and Masvidal's power. He mentions PrizePicks under 2.5 takedowns for Burns as a potential play because Burns might not wrestle or could get a quick submission.

Connor picks Burns because Masvidal has regressed significantly: his boxing has become sloppy, he relies on trick shots that he's no longer fast enough to land, and he lets opponents dictate the fight. Burns is aggressive, assertive, and will take full advantage of Masvidal's tendency to back up and corner himself. Connor notes that Masvidal used to be a great scrambler and wrestler, but now he seems to hate grappling and makes poor decisions. He also mentions Masvidal's ego and age have eroded his game.

Jacob is extremely confident in Gilbert Burns, calling Masvidal overrated and saying he is here to collect a check. He believes Burns will take Masvidal down, slam him, and submit him. He notes that Masvidal has only defended wrestlers like Usman and Colby, but Burns is a powerful grappler who will use strength and technique to finish the fight.

Masvidal is on a three-fight losing streak but those were against the division's elite. He has slick boxing, deceptive power, and excellent takedown defense and get-up game. Burns is a BJJ specialist but his striking is decent, and he doesn't have the cardio or wrestling to replicate what Colby did to Masvidal. I think Masvidal's striking advantage and the Miami crowd will carry him to a knockout win.

Paul acknowledges the best version of Masvidal could beat Burns, but believes Masvidal at 38 has lost a step and lacks the fire. He notes Masvidal's takedown defense is good but Burns' pressure and wrestling should wear him down. Paul expects Burns to take Masvidal down, control rounds, and win a decision or late finish. He cautions that Masvidal could keep it close in Florida but ultimately picks Burns.

The MMA Guru picks Gilbert Burns to drop Masvidal in round one and submit him with an arm triangle. He expects Masvidal to lead with kicks, and Burns will time a right hand over the top, dropping Masvidal. Burns will then take mount, land big shots, and as Masvidal scrambles, he will give up an arm triangle and tap with 30 seconds left in the round.

Zane picks Burns because Masvidal's game has fallen off: he's slower, gasses now, and his boxing is worse. He used to be a well-rounded technician, but now he looks for highlight-reel shots and doesn't have the speed for them. Burns will out-grapple him and doesn't even need to do that the whole time; he can just pressure Masvidal, who backs up too easily and corners himself. Zane notes that Masvidal's ego and age have combined to make him a shadow of his former self.

Angelo picks Adrian Yañez but is not highly confident, noting that Rob Font is a clean technical striker who is very live. He thinks Yañez is a younger version of Font, faster and with more power, but Font has a good chin and could win. He warns that this could be a changing of the guard, but Font could also remind everyone he's still elite.

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez despite wanting to pick Rob Font, due to Font's recent durability issues. He notes Font has taken massive damage in his last two fights and has been dropped repeatedly. He believes Yañez has power and volume, and can win by decision or knockout. He predicts a decision win for Yañez.

Cody agrees with Paul on Font. He points out that Yañez struggled early against Randy Costa, getting dominated in round one before Costa gassed. Cody believes Font's constant jab and long-range strikes will disrupt Yañez's timing and prevent him from landing his power shots. He sees Font's volume as overwhelming and thinks Yañez may struggle to find his rhythm. Cody also notes Font by decision at +200 is worth a look.

Connor picks Yañez because Font's defensive flaws are well-documented: he has poor footwork after committing to his right hand and relies on a static high guard. Yañez is a fantastic counter puncher who will find openings as Font falls into predictable rhythms. However, Connor notes that Yañez can be a slow starter and may lose the first round if Font's jab takes over. He also mentions that Yañez's high-output style can lead to fatigue, as seen against Davey Grant. Despite these concerns, Connor believes Yañez's sharp countering will eventually catch Font.

Jacob is extremely high on Adrian Yañez, calling him his guy and predicting he will be champion by 2025. He praises Yañez's beautiful boxing, combinations, and power. He believes Yañez will find the timing and land the more impactful shots, possibly finishing inside the distance. He acknowledges that Yañez can be a slow starter but trusts his dog mentality.

Font has high output, a great jab, and good footwork, but his durability is questionable after losses to Aldo and Vera. Yañez is a crisp boxer with power, but this is his toughest test. Font's volume and jab could frustrate Yañez, and Font's cardio should hold up. However, if Font's chin is shot, Yañez could land a big shot. I lean Font by decision but with hesitation.

Paul likes Rob Font as a plus-money underdog. He questions Yañez's level of competition, noting his wins are over lower-tier fighters and his only step-up against Davey Grant was a close split decision. Paul highlights Font's elite striking volume, footwork, and jab, and notes that Font has gone five rounds with top bantamweights. He acknowledges Font's tendency to get knocked down but believes his volume and experience will overwhelm Yañez.

The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez to win by decision. He expects Font to have success early with his jab and takedowns, but Yañez will weather the storm and start finding his range. He predicts Yañez will hurt Font badly in rounds two and three, with moments of near-finishes, but Font will survive to the final bell. He compares it to a Marlon Vera-esque performance.

Zane picks Yañez because Font's defensive issues are severe: he gets hit cleanly in every fight and has been knocked down repeatedly. Yañez is a sharp counter puncher who will exploit Font's tendency to leave himself open after throwing the right hand. Zane acknowledges that Yañez may start slow and lose the first round, but he expects Yañez to figure out Font's rhythm and land big shots. He also notes that Font's chin is a major concern, as even if Yañez fades, he only needs one clean shot to change the fight.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland but is avoiding bets because he wants to see how Holland looks after the Wonder Boy loss. He notes that Holland is a good grappler and accurate striker, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Holland should win, but Ponzinibbio is a good technical striker who could make it tough.

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, citing Holland's durability and Ponzinibbio's recent decline. He notes that Ponzinibbio was hurt multiple times by Alex Morono and knocked out by Li Jingliang. He predicts a second-round KO, but admits he doesn't fully trust Holland due to his low fight IQ.

Cody also picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant. He notes Holland's poor decision-making and the respect books give him, making the line too high. Cody points out Ponzinibbio's durability questions and age but sees value at +200. He mentions that Ponzinibbio is fighting in his backyard in Florida and that Holland's minus 235 price is disrespectful. Cody is not sure if he'll bet it but makes the pick for the show.

Connor picks Holland because Ponzinibbio has become a slow starter who gets hurt in every fight. Holland is fast, hits hard, and is fearless, so he will likely land a big shot early. Ponzinibbio may rally later, but his early deficits are too large to overcome. Connor notes that Holland's defense has deteriorated at welterweight, but his durability and confidence make him a tough out. He also mentions that Ponzinibbio's fragility is the real concern, as he gets hurt basically every fight now.

Jacob is confident in Kevin Holland, noting that the UFC gave him a winnable fight. He points out that Holland put Wonder Boy on skates in the first round, and if he lands those shots on Ponzinibbio, he will knock him out. He believes Holland is a better, longer, and more powerful striker, and will get the job done.

Holland has speed and power but is coming off a hand injury and fighting compromised. Ponzinibbio is slower post-layoff but still has veteran savvy and power. I think Holland's speed and power advantage will find Ponzinibbio's chin, but the hand injury is a major red flag. I prefer the fight doesn't go to decision prop over betting Holland straight.

Paul takes Ponzinibbio as a plus-money underdog, though hesitantly. He notes Ponzinibbio is always competitive against top welterweights, with close split decisions against Jeff Neal and Michel Pereira. Paul criticizes Kevin Holland's poor fight IQ, referencing the Stephen Thompson fight where Holland let him up. He believes Ponzinibbio, training in Florida with the crowd behind him, has a real chance. However, he acknowledges Ponzinibbio is 36 and may have declined.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round TKO via straight right hand. He expects Ponzinibbio to have success early with leg kicks and jabs, but Holland will time a right hand as Ponzinibbio throws a kick, rocking him badly. He predicts Holland will finish with ground and pound in round two around the three-minute mark.

Zane picks Holland because Ponzinibbio starts slow and has become fragile. Holland will be aggressive and throw hammers, and Ponzinibbio won't be able to catch up early. Zane notes that Ponzinibbio can still rally and has diverse striking, but his early deficits are too much. He also mentions that Holland's gas tank and hand injury are concerns, but Ponzinibbio's inability to start fast is the deciding factor.

Angelo is confident in Raul Rosas Jr., noting that Christian Rodriguez has been taken down 10 times in the UFC, and Raul is a relentless grappler who doesn't let people up. He thinks it's that simple: Raul will take him down and control him. He has a moneyline bet at -185 and expects the line to move further in Raul's favor.

Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by first-round submission, impressed by his grappling and maturity. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down by previous opponents and that Rosas has elite BJJ. He warns about Rodriguez's guillotine but believes Rosas will be wise to it. He predicts an early finish.

Cody picks Rosas, arguing that despite his age, he is rapidly improving and his wrestling should be effective against Rodriguez, who has poor takedown defense. Cody notes that Rodriguez is still developing himself and the gap between an 18-year-old and a 25-year-old isn't huge. He believes Rosas' physical maturity and grappling will carry him, and that the price is fair. He acknowledges Rosas may eventually be humbled but not here.

Connor picks Rosas because Rodriguez takes himself out of position and fights into the clinch, where Rosas excels. Rosas is a great back-taker and crushing positional grappler. Rodriguez showed vulnerability to takedowns against Joshua Weems, and Rosas is a much better grappler. Connor doesn't see anything in Rodriguez's game that suggests he can stay off the ground or win if taken down.

Jacob is also confident in Raul, sharing a story about how Raul started grappling after being out-grappled once, showing his natural talent. He notes that Christian Rodriguez likes to scramble, which will lead to Raul taking his back. He predicts a finish after the first takedown.

Rodriguez is a well-rounded prospect with pinpoint striking and good scrambles. Rosas is a young grappling phenom but his striking is raw and he makes positional mistakes. Rodriguez has the composure to reverse positions and keep the fight standing, where he has a clear advantage. I think Rosas's overzealous grappling will be exploited, and Rodriguez wins by knockout or decision.

Paul picks Rodriguez as a dog but is hesitant. He questions Rosas' striking and notes that if Rodriguez can survive the early rounds and get back to his feet, he has a striking advantage. Paul points out Rodriguez's good scrambling and ability to land shots. He also mentions the Florida crowd might favor exciting striking over grinding wrestling. However, he acknowledges Rosas' wrestling is a threat and that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense.

The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by second-round submission via face crank. He initially thought decision but changed due to Rodriguez's bad weight cut. He expects Rodriguez to do well early but fade, with Rosas taking over in scrambles and eventually sinking in a choke over the jaw. He describes a detailed grappling sequence leading to the tap.

Zane picks Rosas because Rodriguez's takedown defense is poor, as seen against Weems. Rosas is an aggressive grappler with excellent back-taking and ground control. Zane notes that Rodriguez's record shows submissions, but he doesn't see anything that suggests he can avoid being taken down and controlled by Rosas.

Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.

Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.

Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.

Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.

Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.

Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.

Angelo picks Luana Pinheiro but with low confidence, citing age and career trajectory. He notes that Luana is a powerful striker with solid takedowns, but Michelle Waterson has veteran savvy and is the better overall striker. He is concerned about Luana coming off major knee surgery, which could affect her athleticism. He thinks Michelle is very live as an underdog.

Big Brady picks Michelle Waterson-Gomez as an underdog, citing the massive step down in competition for Waterson. He notes that Pinheiro has a strong judo and early power but fades as the fight goes on. He believes Waterson's striking and experience will allow her to take over in later rounds. He is hesitant due to Waterson's age (37) but sees value.

Cody picks Waterson as a value play. He thinks the fight is closer to 50-50 than the line suggests, so he sides with the plus money. He notes Pinheiro hasn't proven much and her DQ win over Randa Marcos was unimpressive. However, he doesn't love the pick and says he probably won't bet it. He acknowledges Waterson is at the end of her career.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Waterson. He notes that Pinheiro is raw and that Waterson is a competent, tough, high-level fighter who knows how to win. Connor also mentions that Pinheiro's potential hasn't been realized yet.

Jacob flips to Michelle Waterson after film study, noting that Luana's takedowns are almost all Judo headlock throws that work against lower-level opponents. He believes Michelle's experience and superior striking will allow her to stay out of the clinch and dominate. He also points out that Luana is coming off major knee surgery, which could be a factor.

Waterson-Gomez is a veteran with good movement, kicks, and underrated grappling. Pinheiro has power and a strong top game but questionable cardio and competition level. I think Waterson's experience and ability to stay at range will wear on Pinheiro's gas tank, leading to a decision win. However, I lack high confidence because Pinheiro could land effective damage early.

Paul picks Pinheiro but is hesitant. He notes Pinheiro is younger, stronger, and has better wrestling and power. He thinks Pinheiro can take Waterson down and win rounds. However, he acknowledges Waterson's experience and fan-friendly style could lead to a close split decision in Florida. Paul says this is a low-confidence pick and not a top play.

The MMA Guru picks Michelle Waterson to win by 29-28 decision. He describes it as a 'snooze fest' where Waterson will use fight IQ to secure a takedown at the end of each round, stealing the rounds on the scorecards. He expects a close fight with little action, but Waterson's experience and late-round takedowns will be the difference.

Zane picks Waterson because she is a crafty veteran who can stay tight and technical, taking Pinheiro off her feet with takedowns. He notes that Pinheiro's game is raw and she doesn't have a great top game or method to get ground and pound. Zane also mentions that Waterson is tough to knock out and has good reactive shots.

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer but is hesitant to bet because Pyfer is green and Gerald Meerschaert has defied odds before. He notes that Pyfer has good wrestling and enough Jiu-Jitsu to avoid submissions, and is the better striker. However, he is cautious because Meerschaert's chin has held up recently, and he doesn't want to risk a similar outcome to the Bruno Silva fight.

Big Brady picks Joe Pyfer to win by knockout, citing Pyfer's power and patience, and Meerschaert's questionable chin and striking defense. He notes that Meerschaert has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He predicts a second-round KO, but acknowledges Meerschaert's history of pulling off upsets as a dog.

Cody also picks Pyfer. He thinks Pyfer will be too much early, with better striking and wrestling. He notes Meerschaert often comes back after losing the first round, but Pyfer's cardio should prevent that. Cody suggests live betting Meerschaert after round 1 if Pyfer doesn't finish, as Meerschaert's value increases. He acknowledges Meerschaert's submission threat but believes Pyfer can avoid it.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Meerschaert. He emphasizes that Meerschaert has beaten better competition and that Pyfer's wins are not as impressive. Connor also notes that Meerschaert's experience and ability to handle adversity give him the edge.

Jacob is confident in Joe Pyfer, noting that he went into the breakdown looking for reasons to pick Meerschaert but came out with Pyfer as one of his more confident picks. He highlights that Pyfer throws straight, fast shots down the middle, which is exactly how Khamzat Chimaev knocked out Meerschaert. He believes Pyfer can knock him out, but warns that Pyfer can get over-aggressive and headhunt, which could allow Meerschaert to time a takedown.

Meerschaert is a veteran submission specialist with 9 UFC submissions, often winning as an underdog. He uses body kicks to set up takedowns and has crushing top pressure. Pyfer has hype but was submitted by a striker early in his career and hasn't faced a grappler of Meerschaert's level. I expect Pyfer to come out fast, but Meerschaert will weather the storm and find a submission in round 2 or 3.

Paul picks Pyfer, citing his youth, athleticism, and power. He notes Pyfer has a wrestling background and should be able to take Meerschaert down and avoid submissions. Paul believes Pyfer's power could knock Meerschaert out early, as Meerschaert has been knocked out before. He acknowledges Meerschaert's experience and submission threat but thinks Pyfer's cardio and strength will carry him.

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer to win by 30-27 decision. He expects Pyfer to have a power advantage on the feet, causing Meerschaert to shoot predictable takedowns that Pyfer will stuff. He sees Pyfer landing better shots, sprawling on takedowns, and taking back position to control rounds. He does not predict a first-round KO despite Pyfer's danger, instead expecting a dominant decision.

Zane picks Meerschaert because of his veteran savvy, calmness, and ability to survive and submit opponents. He notes that Meerschaert has broadened his game and has a tremendous front headlock. Zane also points out that Pyfer's best win is against a weak opponent and that he was submitted by better fighters.

Angelo picks Lupita Godinez but is not betting due to her unreliable performance against Angela Hill. He notes that when Lupita shows up, she is a big, strong, powerful wrestler with clean boxing, but she needs to be the bully. He thinks she should be able to push Cynthia Calvillo around, but needs to prove herself after the last fight.

Big Brady picks Lupita Godinez but with hesitation due to her poor game plan against Angela Hill where she didn't wrestle. He believes Godinez should win by using her wrestling against Calvillo, who is on a losing streak. He predicts a decision win but expresses distrust in Godinez's consistency.

Cody picks Calvillo as a value play. He notes Godinez's inconsistency and poor fight IQ, and believes Calvillo has a chance despite her losing streak. He mentions Calvillo's wrestling background and that she has been competitive against top fighters. Cody says he already put $200 on Calvillo earlier in the week and may add more. He calls it a system play based on Pat Mayo's CF model.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Godinez. He notes that Calvillo's division switch is a bad sign and that her game doesn't connect. Connor also mentions that Godinez is aggressive and should win.

Jacob is leaning towards Lupita but is wary after being burned by her last fight. He notes that if Lupita uses her wrestling, she can dominate, but if she doesn't, it will be a close fight. He thinks Cynthia Calvillo may be 'broke' with zero confidence, but Lupita's inconsistency makes him hesitant.

Godinez has good wrestling and BJJ, but needs to blend takedowns behind her striking. Calvillo has struggled with her striking and confidence, and a recent camp change may not help at 35. Godinez should have a striking advantage and can stuff takedowns. My only concern is Godinez getting stuck in bad positions, but I think she pulls away via decision.

Paul picks Godinez but is very hesitant. He criticizes Godinez's poor fight IQ, noting she often abandons her wrestling and strikes instead. He points to her fight against Angela Hill where she didn't wrestle despite having a clear advantage. Paul thinks Calvillo is on a losing streak but has faced tough competition. He says Godinez is talented but unreliable at -300.

The MMA Guru picks Lupita Godinez to win by 29-28 split decision. He expects Godinez to land crisper shots on the feet and mix in takedowns in the first two rounds, while Calvillo will come back in the third round. He sees round two as a toss-up but believes Godinez's takedowns will be the difference maker. The prediction is close and acknowledges Calvillo's late surge.

Zane picks Godinez because Calvillo has been mentally in a hole and her game is dysfunctional. He notes that Godinez is crazy and aggressive, which should be enough to win. However, he worries that if Godinez can't get takedowns, she loses confidence in her boxing.

Angelo is very confident in Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his length, reach, surprising output, good power, footwork, and 95% takedown defense. He notes that Trey Ogden is stepping up on short notice and has had to cut weight twice in a few weeks, which is a disadvantage. He believes Ignacio will dominate with his striking and is one of his most confident picks on the card.

Big Brady is confident in Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes that Trey Ogden has poor takedown accuracy (15%) and struggled against Jordan Levitt. He believes Bahamondes will outclass Ogden on the feet and potentially finish him, but predicts a decision win. He mentions the line movement as a sign of confidence.

Cody agrees with Paul on Bahamondes. He notes Bahamondes' potential and size advantage, and that Ogden's wins have come against lower-level competition. Cody points out Ogden's poor takedown defense and low striking output. He thinks Bahamondes will use his reach and volume to dominate. Cody says he probably won't bet it due to the price but agrees it's a solid pick.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bahamondes. He notes that Ogden is a fighter who makes it hard for opponents to hit him, but Bahamondes will keep throwing.

Jacob also loves Ignacio, calling it one of his favorite plays on the card. He emphasizes Ignacio's jab and length, and notes that Trey Ogden marches forward with his head on the center line, making him vulnerable. He warns against Ignacio pulling guillotines, as that could put him on his back, but believes if he sticks to jabbing, he will dominate.

Bahamondes is all violence with high volume, using his height and reach to keep opponents at distance. He has 95% takedown defense and trains with Belal Muhammad to improve his grappling. Ogden is a BJJ black belt but may struggle with Bahamondes' constant pressure and output. I expect Bahamondes to land a knockout as Ogden gets desperate with takedowns.

Paul is high on Bahamondes, calling him potential top ticket material. He highlights Bahamondes' massive size for lightweight (6'3", 75" reach), excellent volume, and takedown defense. Paul notes Bahamondes' cardio and durability, and that he keeps improving. He criticizes Ogden's low output and poor wrestling, and believes Bahamondes will outwork him easily. Paul expects a dominant performance.

The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by second-round submission via guillotine or d'arce choke. He highlights Bahamondes' good reactions to takedown attempts and his striking at range with front kicks and straight punches. He predicts Ogden will shoot a sloppy takedown in the second round after being worn down by leg kicks and body shots, allowing Bahamondes to latch on a guillotine against the cage.

Zane picks Bahamondes because Ogden is a negative fighter who withdraws, and Bahamondes is pathologically aggressive. He notes that trying to not have a fight with Bahamondes is dangerous.

Angelo picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke but is hesitant to bet because of his low volume output. He notes that Shayilan is a powerful grappler with a bully style, but Steve Garcia is a high-volume striker who could steal rounds if Shayilan doesn't push the pace early. He is waiting for significant strike prop bets to drop, as he believes Steve Garcia will land more significant strikes even if Shayilan wins.

Big Brady picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke due to his wrestling advantage and durability concerns with Steve Garcia. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times in recent fights, questioning his chin. He believes Nuerdanbieke can mix takedowns and control the fight, potentially winning by decision or even knocking out Garcia. He predicts a decision win for Nuerdanbieke.

Cody also picks Garcia, agreeing with Paul's reasoning. He notes Garcia's improvements and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's wrestling may not be enough to control Garcia. Cody mentions that Garcia has never been taken down in the UFC. He is cautious but sees value at +155. He says he took a shot on Garcia but warns it's a risky bet.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nuerdanbieke. He notes that Garcia is fun and dangerous but his path to win leads him into his opponent's offense.

Jacob is confident in Shayilan, noting that he trusts his chin more and believes he has the wrestling to slow down Steve Garcia's pressure. He thinks Garcia will come out aggressively, but Shayilan can counter him or take him down. He mentions that Garcia gets dropped often, so Shayilan has a good chance of a knockout. However, he wouldn't bet it because Garcia is a dangerous opponent who risks it all.

Nuerdanbieke uses his stocky frame to grind opponents with takedowns and top pressure, but his striking is wild and he slows down. Garcia has knockout power and unorthodox angles, but his consistency is questionable. I'm skeptical but think the grappling-heavy fighter is the smarter pick, though I have low confidence due to Garcia's power and unknowns.

Paul picks Garcia but with very low confidence. He notes Garcia's tendency to run into punches and get dropped, but believes Nuerdanbieke is not a power puncher and relies on wrestling. Paul argues that Garcia has good takedown defense and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's low striking output could lead to a decision loss if he can't hold Garcia down. He also mentions the Florida crowd may favor Garcia's aggression. He calls it a 'fool pick of the week' and warns not to bet much.

The MMA Guru picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke to win by 29-28 decision. He expects Nuerdanbieke to get a takedown in the first round, control the grappling, and mix in strikes. He thinks Garcia will have some success on the feet in the third round but not enough to overcome the earlier rounds. The prediction is detailed with round-by-round scenarios.

Zane picks Nuerdanbieke because Garcia has terrible wrestling defense and Nuerdanbieke is persistent and strong. He notes that Nuerdanbieke will work hard and take Garcia down, which is too much of a hole for Garcia to overcome.

Angelo sees Jaqueline Amorim as the clear winner due to her undefeated record, all stoppage wins, and superior grappling with blast double takedowns and a wild array of submissions. He notes she also has legitimate one-punch power. However, he is cautious about betting because Sam Hughes is extremely tough and has UFC experience, which could lead to a fade if Amorim doesn't finish early. He suggests an under 2.5 rounds play might be the way to go.

Big Brady is confident in Jaqueline Amorim due to her elite BJJ credentials and six first-round finishes. He notes that Sam Hughes has poor takedown defense (47%) and has been taken down multiple times by previous opponents. He believes once Amorim gets the fight to the mat, it will be over quickly via submission. He predicts a first-round submission.

Cody picks Amorim but is slightly hesitant due to the price. He notes Amorim's submission skills are elite and that she finishes fights quickly. He points out Hughes' poor takedown defense and believes Amorim will get the fight to the ground and submit her. Cody says he won't parlay her but thinks she wins. He mentions the under on the fight time as a potential play.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Hughes. He notes that Amorim is a great prospect but very raw, and Hughes has shown she can break opponents who expect to win quickly.

Jacob agrees that Amorim should dominate, highlighting her methodical takedown timing and excellent top control. He notes that Sam Hughes's toughness may actually work against her because she scrambles to get back to her feet, which opens up submission opportunities for Amorim. He is concerned about Amorim's cardio if the fight goes past the first round, but believes she is good enough to get the job done early.

Amorim is a BJJ black belt with all six wins by first-round finish. Her grappling should overwhelm Hughes, who has good cardio but may struggle to stop takedowns. The line at -230 is too wide for a debutant, but Amorim's submission threat is real. I expect her to lock up a submission after getting the fight to the ground.

Paul picks Amorim, believing her BJJ is elite and that she will take Hughes down and submit her. He notes Hughes has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by many opponents. Paul thinks Amorim's grappling is a level above and that she will progressively improve position. He acknowledges Amorim's striking is unproven but expects her to get the fight to the ground quickly. He suggests live betting Hughes if the fight goes past the first round.

The MMA Guru predicts Jaqueline Amorim will win by first-round submission via rear-naked choke. He envisions a scramble early on where Amorim gets Hughes against the cage, executes an inside or outside trip to get on top in half guard, then takes the back as Hughes scrambles and sinks in the choke. He is confident in this outcome, describing the sequence in detail.

Zane picks Hughes because Amorim is raw and has never been outside the first round. He notes that Hughes has been building a functional game and is aggressive with intelligent pressure. Zane also mentions that Amorim's grappling is not complex and she may not get clean takedowns.