UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman by comfortable decision, citing Usman's wrestling and takedowns as the key. He notes Masvidal has been taken down often and Usman is a smart fighter who won't stand and trade. He thinks the line should be wider and Masvidal's only chance is a knockout off his back, which is unlikely.

Daniel Levi leans toward Kamaru Usman, citing his full camp, size, wrestling, and cardio. He expects Usman to use a clinch-heavy, grinding game plan to wear down Masvidal. However, he acknowledges Masvidal's momentum and power, and says he wouldn't be surprised by an upset. He picks Usman by decision, but as a fan he roots for Masvidal.

Usman is a nightmare matchup for Masvidal with his relentless pace, pressure, cardio, and wrestling. Masvidal's only chance is a Hail Mary strike, but Usman's striking is good enough to close the distance and implement his grappling. The line at -225 is great value; Usman should dominate and win by decision. This is the lock of the night.

The Guru is confident Usman wins, predicting he will maul Masvidal. He notes that Masvidal has a 25% chance of landing something big in the first round but doesn't see it happening. He emphasizes Usman's size, wrestling, and the fact that Masvidal is taking the fight on short notice.

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski by decision, citing concerns about Holloway's camp (zoom training, lockdown in Hawaii). He thinks Volkanovski is ready and hungry, and can outland Holloway again. He placed a bet on this fight but doesn't reveal it.

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkanovski, stating he is simply the better fighter. He praises Volkanovski's fainting game, cardio, strength, and ability to mix takedowns. He believes Holloway's best days are behind him, citing damage from the Poirier fight, concussion issues, and a lack of motivation. He predicts Volkanovski will be the first to knock out Holloway.

Volkanovski is a very smart and efficient fighter who implements game plans well. His leg kicks were the key in the first fight, and Holloway has no answer for them. Volkanovski can use the same strategy again and win. He is durable and confident in the pocket. Picks Volkanovski by decision.

The Guru picks Volkanovski to win again, noting that Holloway's body work in the fourth and fifth rounds of the first fight was against a one-handed Volkanovski. He believes Volkanovski will mix in takedowns and that his pressure and feints will be effective. He also mentions that Volkanovski is not sloppy but calculated.

Big Brady picks Petr Yan by fourth-round knockout, citing Yan's volume and youth. He thinks Aldo is live but Yan's pressure and output will overwhelm Aldo late. He is not betting at -245 but believes Yan wins if he doesn't get caught.

Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan, citing his cardio, composure, pressure, and competitive spirit. He believes Yan will push Aldo back, chip away, and potentially finish him in the first three rounds. He notes Aldo's chin deterioration, lack of low kicks, and tendency to gas, while Yan controls the cage and never takes a back step. He expects Yan to become champion.

Aldo looked impressive in his bantamweight debut against Marlon Moraes, showing good cardio and aggression. Yan has flaws in leg kick defense, which Aldo can exploit. Aldo is still sharp and fast at 33, and the line at +181 offers value. Picks Aldo to win by decision, though a late stoppage is possible.

The Guru picks Yan, citing Yan's low volume as a tactic to get reads, and his ability to drop Rivera at the end of rounds. He thinks Aldo's cardio isn't the best in a five-rounder and that Yan could take him down and make him think about the takedown. He also notes that Marlon Moraes was able to take Aldo down, suggesting Aldo's takedown defense may not be as sturdy at bantamweight.

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas by decision, but is hesitant due to the wide line. He thinks Rose was winning the first fight before the knockout, and she can outpoint Andrade if she avoids the power shots. He believes the line should be closer to a pick'em and would never bet Rose at -210.

Daniel Levi picks Jéssica Andrade as an upset, disagreeing with the line. He questions Rose's mental state (burnout, retirement talk) and cardio, while praising Andrade's toughness, strength, clinch, and cardio. He believes Andrade will overwhelm Rose with pace and aggression, especially in later rounds, and may finish her again. He notes the line is disrespectful to Andrade.

Rose outclassed Andrade in the first fight until the slam KO. She is faster, more technical, and has great in-and-out movement. The three-round format favors Rose as she can avoid Andrade's power. The only concern is Rose's mental state, but at -193, it's a good bet. Picks Rose by decision, but a late stoppage is possible.

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

Big Brady picks Amanda Ribas by second-round submission, stating she wins everywhere – on the feet and on the ground. He notes VanZant may have improved but Ribas is the better fighter overall, and he expects a submission given VanZant's history of being submitted.

Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Amanda Ribas, calling it a mismatch. He notes Ribas is a top prospect and will dominate everywhere. He believes Paige VanZant is being fed to Ribas as a highlight-reel win, and expects Ribas to finish via submission or complete domination. He dismisses any chance of an upset.

Ribas is better than VanZant in every area: striking, grappling, and jiu-jitsu. VanZant's only chance is to wrestle, but that plays into Ribas's strength. Ribas should dominate and finish, likely by first-round rear-naked choke. Not betting due to heavy favorite odds.

The Guru picks Ribas, noting that VanZant tried to outwrestle Ribas and failed. He mentions that the odds on VanZant are juicy but he still puts money on Ribas. He also comments that VanZant has only fought twice in four years and is lucky to have a job.

Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir by first-round knockout, citing his veteran experience and higher level of competition. He thinks Procházka is talented but this step up is too much, and Oezdemir can use takedowns or striking to finish him.

Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, citing his experience against top competition (Reyes, Smith) and power. He criticizes Prochazka's competition level (washed-up veterans) and notes Prochazka puts weight on his front leg, leaving him open to calf kicks. Levi believes Oezdemir will clip Prochazka and get a KO, as Prochazka is not ready for this level yet.

Procházka is a big light heavyweight with heavy hands and a path to victory via wrestling if needed. Oezdemir relies on leg kicks, but Procházka can counter them. Expects Procházka to put Oezdemir on his back and finish him, likely by first-round KO. The line at +140 is appealing, but staying away from UFC debutants.

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

Big Brady picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by decision, believing he will outwork Salikhov with higher output. He thinks Salikhov's only path is a knockout, but Zaleski has a good chin and can also win via takedowns or submission. He considers Zaleski underrated and the slight favorite should be him.

Daniel Levi picks Muslim Salikhov, emphasizing his speed, accuracy, and power on the feet. He believes Salikhov will knock out Zaleski if they stand, and notes improved takedown defense. He criticizes the narrative that Zaleski can out-volume Salikhov, saying Salikhov's shots are fight-changing. He also mentions the location (Abu Dhabi) may favor Salikhov in a decision.

Zaleski is a better grappler and jiu-jitsu player. He can use his capoeira striking to set up takedowns and exploit Salikhov's flaws on the ground. The line at +115 is good value, as the fight should be closer to a pick'em. Picks Zaleski by second-round submission.

The Guru picks Zaleski dos Santos by TKO, saying he thinks he gets it done by decision or TKO. He does not elaborate further.

Big Brady picks Makwan Amirkhani by submission in the first round, citing his excellent wrestling and BJJ. He notes Amirkhani's gas tank is poor, so he needs an early finish, and he expects him to take Henry down and submit him early.

Daniel Levi picks Makwan Amirkhani, expecting him to grind out a win via takedowns and top control. He notes Amirkhani has landed a takedown in every UFC fight except his flying knee KO, and believes he can take down Danny Henry. He acknowledges Henry's length and comeback potential but favors Amirkhani's wrestling and submission threat.

Amirkhani has a massive grappling advantage and should be able to take Henry down and submit him. Henry is not as talented as Burgos, who finished Amirkhani, and Amirkhani's cardio issues shouldn't come into play if he gets the finish early. Picks Amirkhani by submission in the second round.

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos by submission in round 2, highlighting Santos' fourth-degree BJJ black belt and improved striking. He believes Bogatov's path to victory via takedowns plays into Santos' strength, and Santos can catch him in a submission or win on the feet.

Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos, calling him an underrated badass with world-class jiu-jitsu and knockout power. He acknowledges Bogatov's wrestling and pressure style could make it close, but believes Santos's experience, well-roundedness, and ability to capitalize on openings (submission or KO) will prevail. He notes Santos's age and layoffs but thinks his style keeps him fresh.

Santos is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist with improving striking, as shown by his knockout of Stevie Ray. Bogatov wants to wrestle, but that plays into Santos's strength. Expects Santos to win by submission, likely an armbar in the second round.

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

Big Brady picks Marcin Tybura by decision, citing Grishin's size disadvantage moving up from light heavyweight. He thinks Tybura's wrestling and BJJ will be key, and he can get takedowns and control Grishin. He notes the line flipped from Grishin being favorite, which he agrees with.

Daniel Levi leans toward Maxim Grishin, calling this one of the toughest fights to call on the card. He notes Grishin's experience (39 pro fights) and win over Alexander Volkov, while questioning Tybura's suspect chin and gas tank. He sees Grishin as well-rounded enough to potentially upset Tybura, but is not highly confident.

Grishin has more experience, better technique, and is an overall better fighter. He has punching power and should be able to hurt Tybura on the feet. Both are similar in size, so Tybura won't have a size advantage. Picks Grishin to win by decision, but wouldn't be surprised by a finish.

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

Big Brady picks Raulian Paiva by decision, noting he was not impressed with Zhumagulov's tape against lower competition. He believes Paiva is the better overall striker and will outpoint him, though he may not bet at -185.

Daniel Levi is very high on Raulian Paiva, calling him one of his favorite flyweight prospects. He praises Paiva's length, forward pressure, volume, and durability, noting he can take shots and has a good chin. He criticizes Zhumagulov as small for 125, easily bullied, and having a watered-down Russian style. Levi believes Paiva will push him back and dominate, possibly finishing him.

Paiva has impressive length and striking, especially his kicking, which should give Zhumagulov issues closing the distance. Paiva is slowly coming into his own and has a win over a high-level fighter in earlier Santos. Expects Paiva to pick him apart on the feet and win by decision.

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa by decision, believing she is the better striker despite absorbing many strikes. He thinks the fight will be closer than the line indicates but Rosa's volume and skill edge will earn her a decision win.

Daniel Levi picks Karol Rosa, emphasizing her high output in her UFC debut (176 significant strikes) and her ability to out-strike and potentially take down Vanessa Melo. He acknowledges Rosa's defensive flaws (leaving chin up) but believes her camp (Entourage) and durability will carry her. He sees Melo as slow and basic, and expects Rosa to win by decision or finish.

Karol Rosa has good stand-up technique for the bantamweight division, which is more than enough to handle Vanessa Melo, who is essentially a human punching bag. Rosa should outpoint Melo on the feet to a decision victory. Not willing to pay -245, but expects Rosa to win comfortably.

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

Big Brady picks Davey Grant as an underdog, citing Grant's dangerous ground game and submission threat. He notes Martin Day looked impressive on the feet but is green on the ground, and Grant's training camp was better due to gym access. He predicts a second-round submission.

Daniel Levi picks Martin Day, citing Day's dynamic striking, improved strength and conditioning, and athleticism. He notes Day's takedown defense looked good against Pingyuan Liu, and believes Day will be too fast and athletic for Davey Grant, who he sees as having a shaky chin and heart. Levi expects Day to land spinning attacks and win decisively.

Martin Day is the better striker with good kicks and distance management. However, Davey Grant may resort to grappling if outgunned on the feet, which gives pause. At -165, not willing to bet, but picks Day to win by decision.

The Guru briefly mentions Martin Day winning, but does not elaborate. He says 'Martin day not gonna be Devi grant gonna be David Grant yeah I think mine day wins'.