UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya, emphasizing his significant reach advantage, takedown defense (82%), and cardio advantage in a five-round fight. He expects Vettori to have early success with takedowns but fade as the fight progresses, allowing Adesanya to take over on the feet. He predicts a decision win for Adesanya.

Cody believes Vettori can replicate Jan Blachowicz's game plan by pressuring Adesanya, mixing in takedowns, and using his durability and cardio. He notes Vettori's improvement since their first fight and his ability to go five rounds. Cody sees value in the underdog line and thinks the fight goes the distance, so he also likes the over 4.5 rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to edge a close decision, acknowledging Vettori's toughness and pressure. He notes that the line is too wide and that Vettori has a chance if he can grind Adesanya against the fence. He mentions Adesanya's chin-in-the-air habit and Vettori's iron jaw. He respects Vettori's determination but thinks Adesanya's skill will prevail.

Vettori has improved significantly since the first fight, especially his wrestling and clinch work. He can close the distance, take Adesanya down, and control him on the ground, as seen in the first fight and in Jan Blachowicz's blueprint. Adesanya's takedown defense diminishes as fights go on. Vettori's durability allows him to eat Adesanya's strikes and keep coming. Expect Vettori to win a decision by grinding out rounds.

Paul dismisses the Jan fight as a weight-cut issue and believes Adesanya's striking is on a different level. He thinks Adesanya will clip Vettori and possibly get a knockout, though he also sees the fight going the distance. He considers Adesanya the value side at -265.

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya, citing his superior striking, reach, and takedown defense compared to Kevin Holland. He notes Vettori's quick turnaround from the Holland fight and lack of time to improve. He predicts Adesanya will lose the first round but take over, finishing Vettori in round 4 via TKO (body kick) due to exhaustion. He also mentions Adesanya's possible steroid use as a factor.

Big Brady picks Deiveson Figueiredo, citing his power advantage and the mitigating factors from the first fight (short notice, food poisoning, point deduction). He believes Figueiredo will land the harder shots and win a decision, though a finish is possible. He notes Moreno's toughness but expects Figueiredo to have a full camp this time.

Cody thinks Moreno's durability and cardio will be key, as he took Figueiredo's best shots in the first fight and started to take over in the later rounds. He notes Figueiredo's weight cut issues and tendency to foul, and believes Moreno can win by taking over in rounds 4 and 5 if he splits the early rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Figueiredo to defend the belt, possibly by knockout. He notes Figueiredo's power and well-rounded game, including underrated jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Moreno's durability but thinks Figueiredo's firepower is different. He is concerned about Figueiredo's weight cuts but believes he is focused and ready.

Figueiredo's pressure, power, and stalking style should be too much for Moreno over five rounds. Moreno had success with his jab and takedowns in the first fight, but Figueiredo's improved cardio and takedown defense will nullify that. Figueiredo likely wins a decision, though a finish is possible with a full camp.

Paul picks Figueiredo but is hesitant due to weight cut concerns and the close nature of the first fight. He thinks Figueiredo landed the better strikes and would have won without the point deduction, but acknowledges Moreno's durability and the possibility of Figueiredo losing a point for a foul. He is not betting this fight.

The MMA Guru picks Deiveson Figueiredo, primarily because Figueiredo was hospitalized with food poisoning the night before the first fight. He believes a healthy Figueiredo will perform better, citing his power advantage and jab. He notes the odds are too wide in Moreno's favor, but still picks Figueiredo to win a close fight.

Big Brady picks Leon Edwards to win by TKO or cut stoppage, citing Edwards' youth, striking advantage, and well-rounded game. He notes Diaz is past his prime and has taken significant damage. He expects Edwards to mix in takedowns and potentially finish Diaz, possibly due to a cut.

Cody is confident Edwards wins, likely by decision, as he is a decision machine and Diaz is durable. He likes the decision prop at +135 and notes Edwards' clinch work and ring IQ. He also mentions the possibility of a cut stoppage but thinks Edwards will systematically pick Diaz apart.

Daniel Levi picks Leon Edwards to win by decision, possibly via cut stoppage. He notes Edwards' technical striking and takedowns, and Diaz's tendency to cut easily. He warns that Edwards must not get into a brawl and should manage his cardio. He respects Diaz's toughness but thinks Edwards is too well-rounded.

Edwards is superior everywhere: striking, wrestling, and clinch work. He can take Diaz down and control him, or outstrike him at range. Diaz's only path is cumulative damage in later rounds, but Edwards' cardio is solid. Edwards likely wins a decision, as Diaz is durable and hard to finish. The line is wide for a reason.

Paul is also confident in Edwards, calling him the anchor of parlays. He thinks Edwards wins by decision and likes the decision prop. He notes Edwards' excellent clinch work and high ring IQ, and believes he will systematically pick apart Diaz.

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Leon Edwards, calling it the fight he'd pick with his life on the line. He cites Edwards' superior striking, cardio, and grappling, and notes Diaz's lack of power at 170 and decline in cardio since going vegan. He predicts a third-round TKO via body kick, as Edwards will want a finish to secure a title shot.

Big Brady picks Belal Muhammad, citing his youth, cardio, and volume advantage. He is concerned about Muhammad's untested takedown defense against a grappler like Maia, but believes Maia's age (43) will be a factor. He expects Muhammad to win a decision, possibly 29-28 or 30-27.

Cody sees this as a dog or pass situation. He notes Maia's age and slow striking but believes if Maia gets takedowns, he can submit Muhammad. He is interested in a small sprinkle on Maia by submission at +400, as Maia has a history of taking down better wrestlers.

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad, stating that no 43-year-old is beating him. He emphasizes Muhammad's pace and cardio, and that Maia's blueprint has been exposed. He expects Muhammad to outwork Maia, especially in later rounds, and predicts a dominant decision. He calls Muhammad the most sure thing among the favorites.

Maia's jiu-jitsu is a level above anyone Muhammad has faced. Muhammad is a jack-of-all-trades but lacks a finishing threat, while Maia can latch on and submit him. Muhammad's takedown defense hasn't been tested by a grappler of Maia's caliber. Maia's age and cardio are concerns, but he should find a submission in the early rounds.

Paul agrees it's a dog or pass situation. He notes Maia's age and the fact that Muhammad has never faced a wrestler, but he doesn't have a strong lean either way. He is not interested in laying the wood on Muhammad at -230.

The MMA Guru picks Belal Muhammad, believing Maia is past his prime with lowered testosterone. He notes Muhammad's cardio, takedown defense, and recent experience against Leon Edwards. He expects Muhammad to lose the first round to Maia's grappling but come back in rounds 2 and 3 with volume, winning a 29-28 decision.

Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill to win by first-round knockout, citing his massive striking advantage, volume, and cardio. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous submission game but believes Hill's takedown defense and get-up ability will keep the fight standing. He warns against putting Hill in parlays due to the submission threat.

Cody is confident in Hill, noting his striking, reach, and power. He thinks Hill will stuff Craig's takedowns and knock him out, likely inside the distance. He likes the under 1.5 rounds and Hill by knockout. He also mentions Craig's weak chin and the level of competition Craig has faced.

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to knock out Paul Craig, praising Hill's output and technique. He notes that Hill has a high-volume striking style and has shown good takedown defense. He thinks Craig's chin-up tendency when pressured will be exploited. He believes Hill is a future contender and will make a statement.

Hill has a massive striking advantage with diverse attacks, including a vicious body kick. Craig's only path is to get the fight to the ground, but Hill's takedown defense and submission defense should keep it standing. Hill will land devastating shots and likely knock Craig out in the first or second round.

Paul agrees Hill is a confident pick. He notes Hill's size, southpaw stance, and power, and thinks he will finish Craig inside the distance. He likes the under 1.5 rounds and plans to parlay Hill with Edwards.

The MMA Guru picks Jamahal Hill, calling it an obvious prediction. He criticizes Paul Craig's wins over an aged Shogun Rua and notes Hill's superior striking, takedown defense, and head movement. He predicts a first-round KO via straight shot, citing Hill's reach and youth.

Big Brady picks Brad Riddell, emphasizing his better cardio, output, and potential takedown game against Dober's weak takedown defense (55%). He notes Riddell has secured a takedown in every UFC fight and expects him to win a close decision, possibly using wrestling to edge out rounds.

Cody leans towards Riddell as an underdog, citing his combination punching and volume. He thinks Riddell's takedown defense and get-up game will be enough to keep the fight standing, and that he will edge out a decision. He notes Dober's power but believes Riddell's slickness and output will win out.

Daniel Levi picks Brad Riddell by close decision, citing Riddell's better decision-making and counter-striking in later rounds. He acknowledges Dober's power and speed but thinks Riddell's kickboxing IQ and cardio will be key. He notes that Dober may fatigue and that Riddell has shown a second wind in fights. He calls it a 50-50 fight.

Dober has more experience and power, and he can mix in takedowns to disrupt Riddell's Muay Thai. Riddell is a talented striker but may struggle with Dober's pressure and clinch work. Dober's cardio and ability to land impactful shots should give him the edge. The fight likely goes to a decision, as both are durable.

Paul leans towards Dober but is not confident. He notes Dober's power and recent improvements, but acknowledges Riddell's skills. He sees it as a pick'em and is not betting it.

The MMA Guru picks Brad Riddell, citing his youth, better cardio, and versatility. He expects Dober to win the first round by headhunting, but Riddell will take over in later rounds with body work and volume. He sees a stand-up war with Riddell winning by decision or late finish.

Big Brady picks Eryk Anders despite expressing distrust in his fight IQ and inconsistency. He notes Anders hurt Stewart in their first fight and has a wrestling advantage. However, he is wary of the weight move to 205 and the close line, calling it a potential trap. He expects a decision win.

Cody is confident in Anders, citing his improved performance at Fight Ready MMA and the fact that he was dominating Stewart before the illegal knee. He thinks Anders will replicate that performance and possibly get a finish. He notes Stewart's poor conditioning in the first fight.

Daniel Levi picks Eryk Anders by decision, noting that Anders knocked Stewart down in the first fight before the no-contest. He thinks Anders is the bigger man and has the mental edge. He praises Anders' training at Fight Ready and expects him to be more physical. He warns that every fight is different but believes Anders will get the win.

Anders is the bigger fighter and will have a strength advantage, especially at 205 lbs. He had success in the first fight with clinch work and dirty boxing, and that game plan should work again. Stewart is not used to fighting at this weight. Anders likely wins a decision by controlling the clinch and avoiding big shots.

Paul is confident in Anders and has already bet him at -141. He notes that Anders was dominating Stewart before the illegal knee and expects a similar outcome. He thinks the line is a trap but is willing to take it.

The MMA Guru picks Eryk Anders, switching from his original pick of Stewart after Anders proved him wrong in the first fight. He notes Anders' size and reach advantage at light heavyweight, and that Stewart was knocked out (even if ruled NC) just three months ago. He predicts a first-round TKO without illegal knees.

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood, citing her significant striking volume and accuracy advantage. He is concerned about Wood's takedown defense (58%) and the possibility of Murphy grinding out rounds with control time. He expects a competitive fight but ultimately sees Wood out-striking Murphy to a decision win.

Cody leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing her strength, grit, and takedown ability. He thinks she can grind out a decision if she mixes in takedowns. He notes Calderwood's tendency to fall apart in big spots and her poor takedown defense.

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy for the upset, citing her toughness and will to win. He acknowledges Joanne Wood is more talented but inconsistent. He notes Murphy's takedowns have improved and that Wood has a history of poor performances. He expects a close fight and thinks Murphy's durability and pressure will edge out a split decision.

Wood is faster and a better striker, with superior Muay Thai and combinations. Murphy is stronger and may try to clinch, but Wood should outstrike her at range. Murphy doesn't take damage well, and Wood's speed should allow her to land cleanly. Wood likely wins a decision, though Murphy's strength is a slight concern.

Paul picks Calderwood but is not betting it. He thinks Calderwood's striking and reach advantage will be key, and that she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's toughness but believes Calderwood's technical skills will prevail.

The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood, stating she looks technically sound with good knees in the clinch, while Murphy does not look good technically. He notes Wood's recent performance against Jessica Eye and believes Wood's technical edge will be decisive. He dismisses Murphy's wins as unimpressive.

Big Brady picks Movsar Evloev, highlighting his well-rounded skills, including solid striking and excellent takedown game. He acknowledges Dawodu has a striking advantage but believes Evloev's takedowns and control time will edge out a decision win. He notes Evloev's undefeated record and impressive cardio.

Cody leans towards Dawodu as an underdog, citing his striking pedigree and takedown defense improvements. He thinks if Dawodu can keep the fight standing, he has the advantage. He notes Evloev's wrestling is not elite and that Dawodu's style is tailored to upset grapplers.

Daniel Levi picks Movsar Evloev by decision, citing his relentless pace and clinch grappling. He acknowledges Dawodu's technical striking and calf kicks but believes Evloev's work rate and takedowns will be the difference. He notes that Evloev has shown championship qualities by escaping deep submissions. He thinks the line is a bit wide but still favors Evloev.

Evloev has a strong wrestling and grappling base, which should neutralize Dawodu's Muay Thai. The threat of takedowns will limit Dawodu's striking output, and Evloev's volume and cardio give him an edge. Dawodu is durable, so Evloev likely wins a decision. The value is on Dawodu, but Evloev is the safer pick.

Paul passes on this fight. He acknowledges Dawodu's chances but is not confident either way. He notes Evloev has been a cash cow but the style clash makes it a live underdog situation.

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu, questioning Evloev's grappling offense and power. He notes Dawodu's reach advantage and technical striking, and criticizes Evloev's close fights with Enrique Barzola and Nick Lentz. He predicts Dawodu wins a 29-28 decision by taking the first two rounds and surviving the third.

Big Brady picks Alexis Davis as a slight underdog, believing her grappling and top control can be the difference. He notes Davis has faced tougher competition and has a black belt, but she needs to consistently go for takedowns. He is concerned about Kianzad's recent winning streak but sees value in Davis if she implements a wrestling-heavy game plan.

Cody slightly favors Kianzad, citing her jab and takedown defense. He thinks she can keep the fight standing and outbox Davis. He notes Davis's toughness and BJJ but believes Kianzad's striking will be the difference. He is not betting it.

Daniel Levi picks Pannie Kianzad, noting her improved takedown defense and boxing volume. He respects Alexis Davis as a vet but thinks Kianzad's size and striking will be too much. He expects Kianzad to keep the fight standing and out-volume Davis, leading to a clear decision win.

Kianzad has superior striking and can use her jab to stay on the outside, while Davis is slower and relies on grappling. Kianzad showed she can survive takedowns and come back in later rounds, as seen in her last fight. However, Davis is durable and could grind out a win if she gets takedowns. Kianzad likely wins a decision if she fights disciplined.

Paul passes on this fight. He sees it as a close fight that likely goes the distance, but the line doesn't offer value. He notes Davis's grappling threat but is not confident enough to bet.

The MMA Guru picks Pannie Kianzad, citing her superior striking, underrated takedown defense (85% defense rate), and youth. He believes she can replicate Sabina Mazo's success on the feet against Alexis Davis and avoid takedowns. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks Matt Frevola, citing his wrestling advantage and better gas tank. He notes Camacho has been finished 7 times and is on a losing streak, while Frevola is younger and should outwork him. He expects a decision win but acknowledges a finish is possible due to both fighters' durability issues.

Cody picks Frevola, believing his cardio and grappling will overcome McKinney's early explosiveness. He thinks if Frevola survives the first round, he will break McKinney down and possibly finish him. He is also interested in the under on the total rounds, expecting a finish.

Daniel Levi picks Matt Frevola, citing his experience against tough competition and his heart. He notes that Frevola has fought Jalin Turner and Arman Tsarukyan, and that McKinney's only chance is an early knockout. Levi expects McKinney to gas out if he doesn't finish in the first round, and that Frevola's pace and durability will carry him to victory.

Frevola has better striking and power, and McKinney is coming off a short-notice fight with weight cuts. Both are aggressive, but Frevola should land the cleaner shots. Expect a first-round knockout, as McKinney has never been to a decision and Frevola is all action. The fight likely ends inside the distance.

Paul picks Frevola, noting his durability and cardio. He thinks McKinney is too green and will gas out after the first round. He is eager to bet the under on the total rounds, expecting a finish.

The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola, citing Frank Camacho's recent decline and inactivity. He believes Frevola is younger, hungrier, and has good grappling and power. He predicts a first-round TKO in a scrappy brawl, with Frevola's youth and chin giving him the edge.

Big Brady picks Steven Peterson, emphasizing Peterson's 75% takedown defense and strong get-up game, which should neutralize Hooper's grappling. He notes Hooper's poor takedown accuracy (7%) and striking defense, and believes Peterson will out-strike Hooper on the feet. He expects a decision win.

Cody picks Peterson, citing his experience, takedown defense, and wild striking that will be effective against Hooper. He thinks Hooper is too green and one-dimensional, and that Peterson will win by decision or TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Chase Hooper, despite acknowledging Hooper's poor striking and being a punching bag. He notes that Hooper has a path to victory by using his length and kicks to keep Peterson at range, and that Hooper has been training with Wonderboy Thompson. Levi is underwhelmed by Peterson's tape and thinks Hooper's toughness and submission ability could be factors. He admits Peterson has more experience but trusts Hooper's improvements.

Peterson is a veteran with superior striking and serviceable takedown defense. Hooper is still green and relies on jiu-jitsu, but Peterson has never been submitted in his career. Peterson should keep the fight standing and outpoint Hooper, likely winning a decision. Hooper's durability means a finish is unlikely.

Paul picks Peterson but is not betting it. He thinks Hooper's striking is a massive work in progress and Peterson's durability and experience will be key. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a safer play.

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, believing Peterson is the best possible matchup for him due to Peterson's lack of KO power and recent inactivity. He compares Hooper's style to Luis Pena, who beat Peterson, and notes Hooper's improvements and youth. He predicts a submission win in the second round, citing Peterson's vulnerability to submissions as seen in the Pena fight.

Big Brady picks Luigi Vendramini, citing Ziam's poor takedown defense (taken down 8 times in 2 UFC fights) and Vendramini's black belt BJJ. He expects Vendramini to close the distance, take the fight to the mat, and secure a submission. He notes the line movement is surprising and sees value in Vendramini.

Cody leans towards Vendramini, citing his wrestling and grappling advantage. He thinks Vendramini's takedown ability and power could be decisive, but he has cardio concerns. He sees it as a pass situation but picks Vendramini gun to head.

Daniel Levi picks Luigi Vendramini as the underdog, noting that he has been more impressed with Vendramini's performances, including taking Elijah Zaleski's back and a vicious knockout. He acknowledges both fighters are young and green, but sees more upside in Vendramini. He suggests the fight should be a pick'em, so the plus money is valuable.

Ziam has a stick-and-move striking advantage, able to keep the fight at distance and debilitate Vendramini with kicks. Vendramini is stronger and has a good ground game, but Ziam's movement should nullify the clinch and takedown attempts. Low confidence due to Ziam still being green and Vendramini's submission threat. The most likely outcome is Ziam by decision.

Paul leans towards Ziam, citing his technical striking and reach advantage. He thinks Ziam can keep the fight standing and outpoint Vendramini. He sees it as a pass situation but picks Ziam for the show.

The MMA Guru picks Luigi Vendramini, citing his more understandable loss (to Alessio Di Chirico on short notice) compared to Ziam's loss to Don Madge. He highlights Vendramini's KO ability, versatility on the feet, and submission skills, noting he can win by decision, sub, or KO. He questions Ziam's grappling defense after being held down by Jamie Mullarkey.

Big Brady picks Carlos Felipe despite acknowledging it's a close fight. He notes Felipe has better boxing, cardio, and durability, while Collier has a reach and height advantage but has been knocked out three times. He expects a close decision win for Felipe, though he is not overly confident.

Cody leans towards Collier as an underdog, citing his impressive cardio and output in his last fight. He thinks Collier's pressure and volume will overwhelm Felipe, who has shown cardio issues and inability to get off the cage. He notes Felipe's lack of power.

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Felipe to win by knockout in the first round. He emphasizes Felipe's durability, high boxing volume, and youth, contrasting with Jake Collier's questionable win over John Volante. Levi notes that Collier was a former middleweight who ballooned up and that Felipe's power and pressure will be too much. He also mentions that Felipe's weakness is the clinch or ground, but Collier is not a strong grappler.

Collier has a more varied striking attack with leg kicks, body kicks, and punches, while Felipe is a headhunter who telegraphs his big shots. Collier's durability should allow him to eat Felipe's power, and he can mix in takedowns and clinch work to control the fight. Expect Collier to win via decision, as Felipe's takedown defense is questionable and his output is low.

Paul leans towards Collier, noting his improved cardio and striking output in his last fight. He thinks Collier can pressure Felipe and exploit his weaknesses against the cage. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Felipe based on his superior cardio, boxing, and toughness. He notes Felipe's close fight with Sergey Spivak and his youth and chin advantage. He expects Felipe to win a 29-28 decision, possibly losing one close round to Collier.