UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao · Jul 21, 2012 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao Next Fight
Age 41
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 44
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Jake Ellenberger
2.47 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
2.83 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
2.04 TD Avg
47.0% TD Acc.
86.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Diego Sanchez
2.69 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
3.02 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.51 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Jake Ellenberger - Fight History
LOSS vs Bryan Barberena
TKO (punches) R1 2:26 · UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Aug 25, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryan Barberena 0 12 of 14 85% 12 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Jake Ellenberger 2 19 of 35 54% 31 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryan Barberena 0 12 of 14 85% 12 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Jake Ellenberger 2 19 of 35 54% 31 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryan Barberena 12 of 14 85% 6 of 8 2 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 19 of 35 54% 17 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 21 2 of 2 10 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryan Barberena 12 of 14 85% 6 of 8 2 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 19 of 35 54% 17 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 21 2 of 2 10 of 12
LOSS vs Ben Saunders
TKO (knee to the body and punches) R1 1:56 · UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Jun 01, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ben Saunders 0 5 of 9 55% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Jake Ellenberger 1 10 of 21 47% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ben Saunders 0 5 of 9 55% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Jake Ellenberger 1 10 of 21 47% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ben Saunders 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 10 of 21 47% 7 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 8 7 of 10 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ben Saunders 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 10 of 21 47% 7 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 8 7 of 10 2 of 3
LOSS vs Mike Perry
KO (elbow) R2 1:05 · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Apr 22, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Perry 0 17 of 41 41% 20 of 44 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:29
Jake Ellenberger 2 26 of 55 47% 28 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Perry 0 12 of 30 40% 15 of 33 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:28
Jake Ellenberger 0 22 of 47 46% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mike Perry 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jake Ellenberger 2 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Perry 17 of 41 41% 13 of 35 4 of 6 0 of 0 13 of 35 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 26 of 55 47% 10 of 32 4 of 10 12 of 13 24 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Perry 12 of 30 40% 10 of 26 2 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 22 of 47 46% 8 of 28 4 of 8 10 of 11 21 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mike Perry 5 of 11 45% 3 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 4 of 8 50% 2 of 4 0 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 1
LOSS vs Jorge Masvidal
TKO (punches) R1 4:05 · The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · Dec 03, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Jake Ellenberger 0 44 of 63 69% 50 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Jake Ellenberger 0 44 of 63 69% 50 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 11 of 31 35% 7 of 24 1 of 2 3 of 5 9 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 44 of 63 69% 26 of 40 9 of 12 9 of 11 26 of 39 12 of 17 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 11 of 31 35% 7 of 24 1 of 2 3 of 5 9 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 44 of 63 69% 26 of 40 9 of 12 9 of 11 26 of 39 12 of 17 6 of 7
WIN vs Matt Brown
TKO (body kick and punches) R1 1:46 · UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · Jul 30, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Ellenberger 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matt Brown 2 21 of 34 61% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Ellenberger 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matt Brown 2 21 of 34 61% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Ellenberger 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Matt Brown 21 of 34 61% 18 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 15 0 of 0 14 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Ellenberger 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Matt Brown 21 of 34 61% 18 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 15 0 of 0 14 of 19
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Johnson vs. Bader · Jan 30, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tarec Saffiedine 0 54 of 131 41% 58 of 135 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:01
Jake Ellenberger 0 30 of 99 30% 39 of 109 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tarec Saffiedine 0 18 of 45 40% 19 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Ellenberger 0 12 of 39 30% 14 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
2 Tarec Saffiedine 0 16 of 44 36% 17 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jake Ellenberger 0 9 of 33 27% 9 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Tarec Saffiedine 0 20 of 42 47% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Jake Ellenberger 0 9 of 27 33% 16 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tarec Saffiedine 54 of 131 41% 30 of 103 13 of 17 11 of 11 44 of 118 10 of 13 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 30 of 99 30% 24 of 90 6 of 9 0 of 0 20 of 86 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tarec Saffiedine 18 of 45 40% 9 of 35 6 of 7 3 of 3 12 of 38 6 of 7 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 12 of 39 30% 10 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 34 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Tarec Saffiedine 16 of 44 36% 11 of 37 3 of 5 2 of 2 15 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 9 of 33 27% 7 of 30 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Tarec Saffiedine 20 of 42 47% 10 of 31 4 of 5 6 of 6 17 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 9 of 27 33% 7 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0
KO (spinning hook kick) R1 4:29 · The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · Jul 12, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stephen Thompson 1 5 of 14 35% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Jake Ellenberger 2 20 of 35 57% 29 of 47 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stephen Thompson 1 5 of 14 35% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Jake Ellenberger 2 20 of 35 57% 29 of 47 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stephen Thompson 5 of 14 35% 4 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 7 4 of 7 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 20 of 35 57% 17 of 29 2 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 22 1 of 3 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stephen Thompson 5 of 14 35% 4 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 7 4 of 7 0 of 0
Jake Ellenberger 20 of 35 57% 17 of 29 2 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 22 1 of 3 7 of 10
WIN vs Josh Koscheck
Submission (north-south choke) R2 4:20 · UFC 184: Rousey vs. Zingano · Feb 28, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Ellenberger 0 15 of 52 28% 26 of 64 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:21
Josh Koscheck 0 7 of 40 17% 21 of 55 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Ellenberger 0 10 of 31 32% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Koscheck 0 3 of 27 11% 12 of 37 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:56
2 Jake Ellenberger 0 5 of 21 23% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:21
Josh Koscheck 0 4 of 13 30% 9 of 18 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Ellenberger 15 of 52 28% 14 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
Josh Koscheck 7 of 40 17% 5 of 35 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Ellenberger 10 of 31 32% 9 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Josh Koscheck 3 of 27 11% 1 of 22 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jake Ellenberger 5 of 21 23% 5 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Josh Koscheck 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez - Fight History
LOSS vs Jake Matthews
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Matthews 0 25 of 81 30% 38 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Sanchez 1 72 of 148 48% 93 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Matthews 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Sanchez 0 22 of 46 47% 24 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
2 Jake Matthews 0 12 of 40 30% 12 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Diego Sanchez 0 23 of 53 43% 23 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jake Matthews 0 2 of 6 33% 15 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Diego Sanchez 1 27 of 49 55% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Matthews 25 of 81 30% 12 of 57 4 of 12 9 of 12 23 of 77 0 of 0 2 of 4
Diego Sanchez 72 of 148 48% 69 of 145 3 of 3 0 of 0 42 of 97 1 of 1 29 of 50
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Matthews 11 of 35 31% 4 of 20 4 of 10 3 of 5 11 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 22 of 46 47% 19 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 38 1 of 1 5 of 7
2 Jake Matthews 12 of 40 30% 6 of 32 0 of 1 6 of 7 12 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 23 of 53 43% 23 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0 23 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jake Matthews 2 of 6 33% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Diego Sanchez 27 of 49 55% 27 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 24 of 43
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Matthews

Round 1
Sanchez (30-12, 19-12 UFC) is back and this time with an additional cornerman (Stephan Bonnar) beyond self-awareness coach Josh Fabia, and he will be facing a tough test in the form of “The Celtic Kid” Matthews (16-4, 9-4 UFC) at welterweight. The third man inside the octagon is referee Jason Herzog, and the two 170-pounders have absolutely no interest in touching gloves before the action begins. Sanchez races forward with a body kick, and he eats a right hand and rolls around to try to get out of harm’s way. Sanchez gets back to his feet after Matthews grabbed hold of it, and he just barely ducks an overhand right that zips past his head. Sanchez evades another heavy shot and whiffs with a return fire leg kick. Matthews sneaks in a right hand when Sanchez closes the distance, and nearly turns Sanchez into a Pez dispenser with an uppercut. Sanchez goes to the body and swats at the head, but Matthews rolls with it. Sanchez starts waving his hands around in a stance more likely seen in “Cobra Kai” than the UFC, and Matthews fires a kick at his head. The Aussie walks forward to land a body shot and avoids the Sanchez counterattack. Matthews snaps Sanchez’ head back with a right hand, and ducks out of the way when Sanchez swings at him with open hands. “Nightmare” leaps forward with a right hand, and Matthews avoids it while landing one of his own to sting the TUF 1 winner. Sanchez comes up short with a counter, although he does land a leg kick. Sanchez surprises the Aussie with a right hand, and Matthews backs away to reset. Sanchez stalks him down and rushes forward hands down with a barrage of punches, but Matthews is able to jog out of the way. Matthews scores a one-two and evades the swarming attack of Sanchez, but “Nightmare” keeps at it with looping punches. Sanchez lands a slapping body kick and changes levels for a takedown. Matthews defends it and decides to take Sanchez down, where he hops on top to get off some ground-and-pound. When Matthews sits up, Sanchez hunts for a heel hook. Matthews punches his way out with a few fierce right hands that hurt Sanchez, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 2
Sanchez comes out with his nose already bleeding, and Matthews plants a right hand on that nose. Sanchez swarms in with several wild punches, and Matthews is able to avoid them in time. Sanchez tries this flurry once more, and Matthews snaps out a jab to keep him at bay. Sanchez lets fly a heavy leg kick, but “The Celtic Kid” walks through it. Sanchez explodes forward with winging, slopping punches that do not reach his opponent, and Matthews walks him down to the cage before scoring a quick uppercut. Sanchez circles around and switches stances a few times to shake it out, but Matthews stays composed and scores a right hand followed by a one-two. Sanchez takes a right hand so he can land a body kick, but Matthews redoubles his effort with another right hand that makes Sanchez back off. When the original TUF winner comes forward, again Matthews is ready for him with that right hand. Sanchez races forward and just misses with an overhand right, and Matthews accurately targets the nose again. Matthews gets up another uppercut, and clips Sanchez at the end of a left hand. Sanchez grins and starts throwing bombs like the days of old, but Matthews is able to avoid the brunt of the damage. An open-handed slap skims over Matthews’ head, and Matthews returns fire with a closed fist that makes Sanchez retreat. “Nightmare” shakes off the cobwebs only to get tagged again a few times, and Matthews is able to dart out of the way after landing to avoid the Sanchez blitz. Sanchez lands a calf kick and blocks an uppercut that is aimed at his face, and he ducks down to attack but gets cracked on the way in. The horn concludes this second frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews

Round 3
Sanchez starts the third round with his hands behind his waist leaning against the cage, and after a few seconds of standing there, he runs forward with an attack similar to Jorge Masvidal against Ben Askren. The Aussie is wise to it and the knee misses by a wide margin, but he is unable to make Sanchez pay for it. Matthews cracks Sanchez with a one-two and sets him down hard, where he hammers down several punches to slash Sanchez’ right eyebrow open. The blood has positively erupted from Sanchez’ eyebrow, and a growing pool of blood is forming beneath his head fast. Matthews pays it no mind and lands some more ground-and-pound. Sanchez locks him down in guard, and he tries to kick his hips to hunt for submissions and stave off any further strikes. Sanchez grabs hold of the neck for a guillotine choke off his back, but it is nothing doing as Matthews stays patient and pops his head out. Sanchez kicks Matthews off of him and Matthews lords over him while trying to find a way back in to do some more damage. “The Celtic Kid” finds his angle and crashes down into the guard, while Sanchez twists and turns for any sort of Hail Mary submission, but none is to be had. Matthews gets off a few more heavy right hands as the blood continues to flow for Sanchez, and Sanchez throws his legs up for a triangle choke. Matthews stops it by smashing him in the face with several punches, but the crafty vet hunts for an armbar. Sanchez has it tight briefly, but the slipperiness allows Matthews to pull his arm and then head free from the submission danger. Sanchez looks away for several seconds to his corner as he decides to lock Matthews down. Matthews does not accept that, and postures up to get off several more punches. He lets loose one final salvo to wrap up this fight with style points, although Matthews was unable to get the finish he so desired.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Matthews (30-26 Matthews)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Matthews (30-26 Matthews)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Matthews (30-26 Matthews)

The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Diego Sanchez via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Big Brady confidently picks Matthews, citing Sanchez's decline and poor recent performances. He believes Matthews is better everywhere at this point and expects a finish, as Sanchez's durability is fading. He notes the line is wide and likely to get wider.

Matthews by knockout; parlay piece
"give me jake matthews here probably by finish i know diego sanchez is notoriously durable but i don't really think that durability is uh all that there at this point"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

Daniel Levi picks Jake Matthews, citing his power and youth compared to a diminished Diego Sanchez. He worries about Matthews gassing in the third round as he has in past fights, but believes the firepower difference is too great. He expects a knockout or unanimous decision.

most likely by knockout if not unanimous decision
"i got jake matthews most likely by knockout if not unanimous decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jake Matthews

The host confidently picks Jake Matthews, citing his youth, athleticism, and grinding style. He believes Diego Sanchez's body is declining and that Matthews will dominate with grappling. He predicts a second or third-round TKO after wearing Sanchez down.

Matthews by TKO (+250), Matthews by decision (-110)
"I will take jake matthews to win this fight... jake matthew gives you a finish probably second round maybe third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Jake Matthews

The MMA Guru picks Jake Matthews, calling him a guaranteed win. He notes Matthews has a great chin, recovery, and grappling, and has fought tough opponents. He expects Matthews to hurt Sanchez badly and predicts a first-round KO. He mentions the odds are high but justified because Matthews is a lock.

Matthews is a 7-to-1 favorite, win by KO in round 1
"jake matthews is basically a guaranteed win in my opinion i don't see him losing to diego sanchez"
DQ (illegal knee) R3 3:09 · UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2 · Feb 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Sanchez 0 25 of 64 39% 29 of 68 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:10
Michel Pereira 1 53 of 91 58% 56 of 94 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Sanchez 0 10 of 22 45% 11 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Michel Pereira 0 16 of 27 59% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Diego Sanchez 0 13 of 27 48% 14 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Michel Pereira 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
3 Diego Sanchez 0 2 of 15 13% 4 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michel Pereira 1 18 of 27 66% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Sanchez 25 of 64 39% 6 of 34 10 of 17 9 of 13 23 of 61 1 of 2 1 of 1
Michel Pereira 53 of 91 58% 20 of 52 28 of 33 5 of 6 39 of 75 10 of 11 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Sanchez 10 of 22 45% 2 of 11 3 of 5 5 of 6 10 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 16 of 27 59% 3 of 11 11 of 14 2 of 2 12 of 22 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Diego Sanchez 13 of 27 48% 3 of 9 7 of 12 3 of 6 12 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 19 of 37 51% 8 of 24 8 of 10 3 of 3 18 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Diego Sanchez 2 of 15 13% 1 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michel Pereira 18 of 27 66% 9 of 17 9 of 9 0 of 1 9 of 17 5 of 5 4 of 5
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

Daniel Levi picks Michel Pereira to win by first-round knockout. He believes Diego Sanchez is a deranged man with a deteriorating chin and questionable training situation, while Pereira is more focused after his first UFC loss. He thinks Pereira's power and striking will be too much for Sanchez, who ducks his head and hasn't evolved.

first-round knockout, possibly a 10-second knockout via flying knee, performance of the night bonus
"I think he gets knocked out in the first round with an e or a punch"
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 7 of 11 63% 23 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:24
Diego Sanchez 0 47 of 67 70% 98 of 132 5 of 6 83% 0 1 11:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 4 of 5 80% 7 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:28
Diego Sanchez 0 11 of 17 64% 24 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 1 3:16
2 Michael Chiesa 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Diego Sanchez 0 31 of 44 70% 59 of 75 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:13
3 Michael Chiesa 0 1 of 1 100% 13 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Diego Sanchez 0 5 of 6 83% 15 of 18 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 7 of 11 63% 1 of 4 0 of 1 6 of 6 1 of 3 2 of 4 4 of 4
Diego Sanchez 47 of 67 70% 46 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 5 of 8 38 of 52
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 4 of 5 80% 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 4
Diego Sanchez 11 of 17 64% 10 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 8 of 11
2 Michael Chiesa 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 31 of 44 70% 31 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 2 of 2 27 of 37
3 Michael Chiesa 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4
WIN vs Mickey Gall
TKO (punches) R2 4:13 · UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Mar 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Sanchez 0 56 of 87 64% 61 of 92 4 of 4 100% 0 0 6:00
Mickey Gall 0 23 of 65 35% 35 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Sanchez 0 15 of 31 48% 19 of 35 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:08
Mickey Gall 0 16 of 43 37% 28 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Diego Sanchez 0 41 of 56 73% 42 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:52
Mickey Gall 0 7 of 22 31% 7 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Sanchez 56 of 87 64% 37 of 63 13 of 18 6 of 6 7 of 28 10 of 11 39 of 48
Mickey Gall 23 of 65 35% 19 of 59 2 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 44 9 of 14 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Sanchez 15 of 31 48% 5 of 18 5 of 8 5 of 5 3 of 18 8 of 9 4 of 4
Mickey Gall 16 of 43 37% 12 of 37 2 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 25 9 of 14 3 of 4
2 Diego Sanchez 41 of 56 73% 32 of 45 8 of 10 1 of 1 4 of 10 2 of 2 35 of 44
Mickey Gall 7 of 22 31% 7 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
WIN vs Craig White
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Sanchez 0 46 of 77 59% 82 of 124 3 of 4 75% 0 0 14:22
Craig White 1 18 of 42 42% 64 of 94 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Sanchez 0 13 of 26 50% 29 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:54
Craig White 0 8 of 9 88% 15 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 19 63% 18 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:43
Craig White 0 7 of 14 50% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Diego Sanchez 0 21 of 32 65% 35 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
Craig White 1 3 of 19 15% 19 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Sanchez 46 of 77 59% 34 of 65 12 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 8 1 of 1 42 of 68
Craig White 18 of 42 42% 16 of 39 2 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 17 1 of 1 9 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Sanchez 13 of 26 50% 9 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 22
Craig White 8 of 9 88% 6 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Diego Sanchez 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 19
Craig White 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 1 of 1 4 of 6
3 Diego Sanchez 21 of 32 65% 16 of 27 5 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 18 of 27
Craig White 3 of 19 15% 3 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 13
LOSS vs Matt Brown
KO (elbow) R1 3:44 · UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Nov 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 18 of 34 52% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 1 18 of 34 52% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 2 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 2 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Al Iaquinta
KO (punches) R1 1:38 · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Apr 22, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Al Iaquinta 2 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Diego Sanchez 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Al Iaquinta 2 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Diego Sanchez 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Al Iaquinta 12 of 19 63% 9 of 15 1 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 2
Diego Sanchez 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Al Iaquinta 12 of 19 63% 9 of 15 1 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 2
Diego Sanchez 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Marcin Held
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–27) R3 5:00 · The Ultimate Fighter Latin America 3 Finale: dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · Nov 05, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Sanchez 0 46 of 81 56% 69 of 108 0 of 1 0% 0 0 9:17
Marcin Held 0 30 of 82 36% 57 of 112 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Sanchez 0 17 of 44 38% 19 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:31
Marcin Held 0 23 of 64 35% 32 of 73 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
2 Diego Sanchez 0 8 of 10 80% 20 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:36
Marcin Held 0 2 of 4 50% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Diego Sanchez 0 21 of 27 77% 30 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:10
Marcin Held 0 5 of 14 35% 14 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Sanchez 46 of 81 56% 31 of 62 12 of 16 3 of 3 21 of 52 0 of 0 25 of 29
Marcin Held 30 of 82 36% 30 of 80 0 of 2 0 of 0 23 of 70 3 of 4 4 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Sanchez 17 of 44 38% 11 of 34 5 of 9 1 of 1 17 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Held 23 of 64 35% 23 of 63 0 of 1 0 of 0 20 of 61 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Diego Sanchez 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 8
Marcin Held 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Diego Sanchez 21 of 27 77% 15 of 21 5 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 18 of 21
Marcin Held 5 of 14 35% 5 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 1 3 of 6