UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa

Big Brady picks Adesanya after initially leaning Costa. He cites Adesanya's eight-inch reach advantage, superior striking defense, and ability to stick and move in the bigger cage. He thinks Costa is hittable and may fade in later rounds, leading to a fourth-round knockout for Adesanya.

Daniel Levi picks Paulo Costa to become the new champion, citing Costa's pressure, body work, and ability to close distance. He dismisses concerns about Costa's cardio and notes Costa dropped Yoel Romero with a left hook. He believes Izzy's jab will be answered by Costa's combinations, and that Costa can win by decision or knockout. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation at plus 160.

The host picks Israel Adesanya, expecting him to use his movement and counter-striking to frustrate Paulo Costa. He believes Costa will swing at air and slow down after two rounds, allowing Adesanya to take over and finish in the fourth round. He notes that Costa's power is a threat early, but Adesanya's elusiveness and technical striking will prevail.

The MMA Guru picks Paulo Costa, emphasizing Costa's overlooked technical skill, power, and size. He thinks Costa will hurt Adesanya to the body first and then finish upstairs, predicting a second-round TKO. He notes Costa won the trash talk and remains calm, while Adesanya's tentativeness against Romero could be exploited.

Big Brady picks Reyes, citing his higher output and better striking. He downplays Błachowicz's power, noting he has only three knockouts since 2011 and those were against chinny opponents. He believes Reyes' takedown defense and durability will carry him to a third-round knockout.

Daniel Levi slightly edges Dominick Reyes because he gave Jon Jones a tough fight, but he is not confident at the current price. He notes Jan Błachowicz is underrated and has shown improvements, and that Reyes has a cringey attitude and may be underestimating Błachowicz. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and suggests betting Błachowicz at plus money.

The host picks Jan Błachowicz as an underdog, citing his experience, durability, and ability to make the fight dirty. He believes Reyes may fade in later rounds as he did against Jones, and that Błachowicz can grind out a decision. He notes that the line is too wide and that Błachowicz has a better chance than the odds suggest.

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes, citing his win over Jon Jones (though a loss on record) and his style of using range and oblique kicks. He thinks Reyes will catch Błachowicz moving backwards in the first or second round with a big shot, similar to how Santos did. He notes Błachowicz's power is overrated as he KO'd Luke Rockhold and Corey Anderson, who are easy to KO.

Big Brady picks the underdog Royval, impressed by his ground game and finishing ability. He thinks Royval will get the fight to the mat at some point and have a big advantage there. He also notes Royval's striking is decent and he has a reach advantage.

Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval as a dog, calling it a dog-or-pass situation. He believes Kai Kara-France is overrated, with questionable wins and a tendency to duck his head before exchanges, which Royval can exploit with flying knees. He praises Royval's heart, submission ability, and pressure, though he notes Royval's takedown defense is poor.

The host picks Brandon Royval as a live underdog, comparing him to Tony Ferguson for his unorthodox pressure and scrambling ability. He believes Royval's chaos and jiu-jitsu will overwhelm Kai Kara-France, who he feels is overrated due to his City Kickboxing affiliation. He predicts a second or third-round submission.

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France, citing his great grappling defense, improvement, and experience against tough competition. He thinks Kara-France will chop at the legs, work the body, and win a unanimous decision. He notes Royval's win over Tim Elliott was good but Kara-France is a different level.

Big Brady picks Vieira, believing her ground game is superior to Eubanks' BJJ. He thinks the fight will hit the mat and Vieira will have success there. He notes Eubanks' cardio may be affected by multiple weight cuts, but expects a close decision.

Daniel Levi slightly leans Ketlen Vieira, acknowledging she is the better fighter but has concerns about her knee injury and the loss of her coach. He believes Eubanks' grappling advantage won't be as effective against Vieira, who is a serious black belt. He expects a grappling-heavy fight with Vieira getting the better of the scrambles.

The host picks Ketlen Vieira, believing her efficient striking and pressure will be too much for Sijara Eubanks. He expects Eubanks' gas tank issues to resurface as the fight goes on, leading to a third-round TKO for Vieira. He notes that Vieira is the bigger, stronger fighter and that Eubanks' takedowns will be harder to secure.

The MMA Guru picks Sijara Eubanks, noting she has been more active and has better recent wins, including over Julia Avila. He thinks Vieira's win over Kaitlyn Chookagian is aged and she hasn't fought in a long time. He predicts Eubanks wins a unanimous decision dominantly.

Big Brady leans toward Tukhugov in a close fight, citing his power and wrestling. He thinks Tukhugov will land harder shots and potentially use takedowns to edge a decision, despite being out-volumed. He's not very confident.

Daniel Levi picks Hakeem Dawodu as a dog, believing the fight should be closer to a pick'em. He notes Dawodu starts slow but improves as the fight progresses with his Muay Thai arsenal, while Tukhugov comes out hard early. He also mentions Tukhugov missed weight by five pounds and is without his coach Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov.

The host picks Hakeem Dawodu as a slight underdog, citing his superior striking, better gas tank, and higher output. He expects Tukhugov to slow down in later rounds, allowing Dawodu to take over. He predicts a third-round TKO for Dawodu.

The MMA Guru picks Zubaira Tukhugov, believing he has more power and finishing ability. He thinks Tukhugov will crack Dawodu early, possibly with a KO, and notes Dawodu tends to have close decisions. He mentions the smaller cage favors Tukhugov's finishing chances.

Big Brady picks Riddell, impressed by his hands and pace. He thinks da Silva's competition is weak and that Riddell will out-strike him, forcing bad takedowns and finishing in the third round. He acknowledges da Silva's submission threat but believes Riddell's get-up game is strong.

Daniel Levi leans Brad Riddell because he has been more impressed with his precision, calmness, and improvements in takedown defense. He notes Alex da Silva Coelho has not shown his Muay Thai in the UFC and may not be confident striking. He is not sure about laying -340 but picks Riddell to win.

The host picks Alex da Silva as a live underdog, believing the line on Riddell is too wide. He notes that da Silva has a solid path to victory via grappling and that Riddell's wins are not dominant. He expects a close fight and predicts da Silva wins by decision.

The MMA Guru picks Brad Riddell, emphasizing his experience against high-level UFC competition, including a win over Magomed Mustafaev. He thinks Riddell is one fight away from a ranked opponent and will make a statement with a TKO finish. He notes Alex da Silva has lost to gatekeepers and hasn't jumped that level.

Big Brady confidently picks Matthews, citing Sanchez's decline and poor recent performances. He believes Matthews is better everywhere at this point and expects a finish, as Sanchez's durability is fading. He notes the line is wide and likely to get wider.

Daniel Levi picks Jake Matthews, citing his power and youth compared to a diminished Diego Sanchez. He worries about Matthews gassing in the third round as he has in past fights, but believes the firepower difference is too great. He expects a knockout or unanimous decision.

The host confidently picks Jake Matthews, citing his youth, athleticism, and grinding style. He believes Diego Sanchez's body is declining and that Matthews will dominate with grappling. He predicts a second or third-round TKO after wearing Sanchez down.

The MMA Guru picks Jake Matthews, calling him a guaranteed win. He notes Matthews has a great chin, recovery, and grappling, and has fought tough opponents. He expects Matthews to hurt Sanchez badly and predicts a first-round KO. He mentions the odds are high but justified because Matthews is a lock.

Big Brady is high on Klein, impressed by his head kicks and power. He thinks Young is too hittable and doesn't play defense, making him vulnerable to a head kick knockout. He notes Klein is an underdog but looks legit, and the line has moved in his favor.

Daniel Levi picks Ľudovít Klein, praising his southpaw style, jab, body shots, and signature high kick. He believes Klein's takedown defense and ability to get back up are good, and that Shane Young's iron chin and forward pressure will eventually be his downfall as Klein finds an opening for a knockout. He notes Klein is the first Slovakian UFC fighter.

The host picks Ľudovít Klein, citing his higher output, cleaner striking, and recent activity compared to Shane Young. He believes Klein's aggressiveness will be key and that Young's confidence may falter if he can't establish his game early. He predicts a second-round KO for Klein.

The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein because he is the number two guy out of Eastern Europe, a tough region, and Klein has a more aggressive style. He notes Klein is naturally bigger, fought at lightweight before, and has been active in 2020, while Shane Young hasn't fought since February 2019. He believes Klein is a live dog and could win by finish, possibly a head kick KO.

Big Brady picks Camur, stating he is the better fighter despite Knight's power. He notes Camur has good durability and has finished 80% of his wins. He attributes Camur's unimpressive UFC debut to octagon jitters and expects a second-round knockout.

Daniel Levi picks William Knight for the upset, comparing him to a green Derrick Lewis with heart and finishing ability. He believes Knight will capitalize on Camur's inexperience and tense striking, eventually finding a finish. He notes Camur looked tense in his debut and has fought weak competition.

The host leans toward Aleksa Camur but is not confident, calling the fight a pass. He notes that Camur has a better training camp and may be more active, but both fighters are green with many unknowns. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds is the best bet, as both may feel each other out.

The MMA Guru picks Aleksa Camur, citing his training at Staphae Meochit, youth (24), and good striking defense. He believes Camur will survive the first round and then KO William Knight in the first round with a counterpunch. He notes Knight is past his prime and has not faced high-level competition.

Big Brady is confident in Espino, citing his strong wrestling and submission game. He thinks Espino will get the fight to the mat and finish quickly, as Hughes is low-volume and lacks power. He notes the submission prop is already priced in at +150 but considers Espino a fine parlay piece.

Daniel Levi slightly leans Juan Espino because his biggest skill (grappling) is better than any of Hughes' skills, but he is worried about Espino's cardio if the fight goes past the first round and the layoff. He notes Hughes has good wrestling and durability but struggles to pull the trigger. He would not lay the chalk in this spot.

The host picks Juan Espino but is hesitant due to the two-year layoff and unknowns about Jeff Hughes' submission defense. He expects Espino to win by second-round submission, but prefers the over 1.5 rounds because Hughes is durable and tough. He notes that Espino's -300 price is too high for a fighter with ring rust.

The MMA Guru picks Juan Espino, noting he won The Ultimate Fighter and beat Maurice Green. He thinks Espino will ragdoll Jeff Hughes due to being naturally bigger and more athletic, and predicts a submission win by arm triangle choke in the first round. He mentions Espino has been inactive due to injuries but is now returning.

Big Brady picks Ibragimov despite acknowledging his poor UFC record and questionable gas tank. He believes Ibragimov has advantages in striking and takedown defense, while Marquez is underwhelming and older. He expects a sloppy fight with Ibragimov likely getting a finish, but he's not confident and is surprised the line is close.

Daniel Levi picks Khadis Ibragimov because he has faced tougher competition in the UFC despite losing, while Danilo Marques has padded his record against cans. He notes Ibragimov is the heavier puncher but has a wild fighting style and energy management issues. He leans Ibragimov but is not confident enough to lay the slight chalk.

The host believes Khadis Ibragimov will win, likely by first-round KO, due to his aggressive style and power. He notes that Danilo Marques has poor stand-up and a questionable gas tank, and that Ibragimov's takedown defense should be sufficient to keep the fight standing. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds at -135.

The MMA Guru picks Khadis Ibragimov because Danilo Marquez has fought no one of talent and lost when stepping up. He respects Ibragimov's losses more than Marquez's wins and sees Ibragimov bouncing back with a TKO win. He notes Marquez's best win is against a guy with a losing record and that Marquez has hidden opponent records.