UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun · Oct 24, 2009 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun Next Fight
Age 48
Height 6' 1"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 44
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Lyoto Machida
2.59 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
1.57 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
1.21 TD Avg
65.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Maurício Rua
3.57 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.79 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
2.01 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
49.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Lyoto Machida - Fight History
WIN vs Vitor Belfort
KO (front kick) R2 1:00 · UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · May 12, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lyoto Machida 0 2 of 12 16% 2 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vitor Belfort 1 11 of 22 50% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lyoto Machida 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vitor Belfort 0 10 of 16 62% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lyoto Machida 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vitor Belfort 1 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lyoto Machida 2 of 12 16% 2 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Belfort 11 of 22 50% 2 of 8 7 of 11 2 of 3 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lyoto Machida 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Belfort 10 of 16 62% 1 of 4 7 of 9 2 of 3 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lyoto Machida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Belfort 1 of 6 16% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Eryk Anders
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · Feb 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lyoto Machida 0 62 of 112 55% 66 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:18
Eryk Anders 0 32 of 77 41% 46 of 94 3 of 11 27% 0 0 3:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lyoto Machida 0 15 of 26 57% 18 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:18
Eryk Anders 0 2 of 6 33% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lyoto Machida 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Eryk Anders 0 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
3 Lyoto Machida 0 10 of 19 52% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Eryk Anders 0 9 of 19 47% 11 of 21 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:36
4 Lyoto Machida 0 10 of 18 55% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Eryk Anders 0 6 of 18 33% 9 of 21 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:25
5 Lyoto Machida 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Eryk Anders 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lyoto Machida 62 of 112 55% 18 of 57 23 of 31 21 of 24 49 of 94 6 of 7 7 of 11
Eryk Anders 32 of 77 41% 18 of 63 13 of 13 1 of 1 19 of 60 12 of 15 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lyoto Machida 15 of 26 57% 2 of 8 2 of 4 11 of 14 8 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 11
Eryk Anders 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Lyoto Machida 14 of 22 63% 4 of 11 4 of 5 6 of 6 13 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Eryk Anders 6 of 13 46% 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Lyoto Machida 10 of 19 52% 7 of 14 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
Eryk Anders 9 of 19 47% 6 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 13 5 of 6 0 of 0
4 Lyoto Machida 10 of 18 55% 3 of 10 7 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0
Eryk Anders 6 of 18 33% 4 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1
5 Lyoto Machida 13 of 27 48% 2 of 14 8 of 10 3 of 3 11 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Eryk Anders 9 of 21 42% 4 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Derek Brunson
KO (punches) R1 2:30 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Oct 28, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 1 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lyoto Machida 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 1 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lyoto Machida 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 10 of 24 41% 8 of 17 0 of 1 2 of 6 5 of 19 0 of 0 5 of 5
Lyoto Machida 3 of 10 30% 2 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 2 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 10 of 24 41% 8 of 17 0 of 1 2 of 6 5 of 19 0 of 0 5 of 5
Lyoto Machida 3 of 10 30% 2 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 2 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Yoel Romero
KO (elbows) R3 1:38 · UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Romero · Jun 27, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yoel Romero 0 31 of 64 48% 31 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lyoto Machida 0 42 of 70 60% 44 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yoel Romero 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lyoto Machida 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Yoel Romero 0 16 of 26 61% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lyoto Machida 0 17 of 27 62% 17 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Yoel Romero 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lyoto Machida 0 10 of 13 76% 12 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yoel Romero 31 of 64 48% 6 of 27 11 of 20 14 of 17 31 of 63 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lyoto Machida 42 of 70 60% 16 of 31 9 of 18 17 of 21 35 of 63 1 of 1 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yoel Romero 12 of 28 42% 2 of 12 5 of 9 5 of 7 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lyoto Machida 15 of 30 50% 1 of 7 5 of 11 9 of 12 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yoel Romero 16 of 26 61% 4 of 9 5 of 9 7 of 8 16 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lyoto Machida 17 of 27 62% 8 of 15 3 of 5 6 of 7 16 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Yoel Romero 3 of 10 30% 0 of 6 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lyoto Machida 10 of 13 76% 7 of 9 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 6
LOSS vs Luke Rockhold
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:31 · UFC on Fox: Machida vs. Rockhold · Apr 18, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luke Rockhold 0 13 of 27 48% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:25
Lyoto Machida 0 23 of 44 52% 39 of 63 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luke Rockhold 0 8 of 12 66% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:25
Lyoto Machida 0 11 of 24 45% 20 of 36 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:12
2 Luke Rockhold 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lyoto Machida 0 12 of 20 60% 19 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luke Rockhold 13 of 27 48% 7 of 20 0 of 1 6 of 6 12 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 2
Lyoto Machida 23 of 44 52% 14 of 34 4 of 4 5 of 6 11 of 23 1 of 1 11 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luke Rockhold 8 of 12 66% 6 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2 7 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2
Lyoto Machida 11 of 24 45% 9 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 18
2 Luke Rockhold 5 of 15 33% 1 of 10 0 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lyoto Machida 12 of 20 60% 5 of 13 4 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 2
TKO (body kick and punches) R1 1:02 · UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Dollaway · Dec 20, 2014
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lyoto Machida 1 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
C. B. Dollaway 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lyoto Machida 1 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
C. B. Dollaway 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lyoto Machida 12 of 19 63% 10 of 17 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 2 of 4 6 of 9
C. B. Dollaway 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lyoto Machida 12 of 19 63% 10 of 17 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 2 of 4 6 of 9
C. B. Dollaway 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Chris Weidman
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 175: Weidman vs. Machida · Jul 05, 2014
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Weidman 0 65 of 177 36% 90 of 206 5 of 13 38% 0 0 4:36
Lyoto Machida 0 58 of 139 41% 63 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Weidman 0 10 of 33 30% 10 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Lyoto Machida 0 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Chris Weidman 0 14 of 37 37% 18 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:59
Lyoto Machida 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Weidman 0 9 of 21 42% 22 of 38 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:12
Lyoto Machida 0 6 of 19 31% 6 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Chris Weidman 0 9 of 42 21% 9 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:11
Lyoto Machida 0 18 of 47 38% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Chris Weidman 0 23 of 44 52% 31 of 52 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:13
Lyoto Machida 0 22 of 40 55% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Weidman 65 of 177 36% 47 of 136 7 of 24 11 of 17 51 of 156 8 of 12 6 of 9
Lyoto Machida 58 of 139 41% 39 of 107 15 of 26 4 of 6 51 of 130 7 of 8 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Weidman 10 of 33 30% 3 of 15 2 of 9 5 of 9 10 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lyoto Machida 7 of 19 36% 5 of 15 2 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Weidman 14 of 37 37% 7 of 27 3 of 6 4 of 4 9 of 30 3 of 3 2 of 4
Lyoto Machida 5 of 14 35% 1 of 6 2 of 5 2 of 3 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chris Weidman 9 of 21 42% 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 1 7 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 2
Lyoto Machida 6 of 19 31% 4 of 14 1 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 1
4 Chris Weidman 9 of 42 21% 7 of 35 1 of 5 1 of 2 8 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
Lyoto Machida 18 of 47 38% 11 of 36 7 of 10 0 of 1 18 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Chris Weidman 23 of 44 52% 21 of 39 1 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 35 3 of 6 3 of 3
Lyoto Machida 22 of 40 55% 18 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 1 15 of 32 7 of 8 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Mousasi · Feb 15, 2014
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lyoto Machida 0 28 of 101 27% 35 of 108 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:10
Gegard Mousasi 0 36 of 106 33% 66 of 138 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lyoto Machida 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gegard Mousasi 0 5 of 13 38% 5 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lyoto Machida 0 6 of 26 23% 6 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gegard Mousasi 0 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Lyoto Machida 0 7 of 29 24% 8 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Gegard Mousasi 0 9 of 23 39% 11 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
4 Lyoto Machida 0 3 of 9 33% 5 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:02
Gegard Mousasi 0 7 of 19 36% 19 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:39
5 Lyoto Machida 0 7 of 19 36% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:05
Gegard Mousasi 0 5 of 20 25% 21 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lyoto Machida 28 of 101 27% 16 of 75 6 of 17 6 of 9 25 of 97 0 of 1 3 of 3
Gegard Mousasi 36 of 106 33% 19 of 80 4 of 9 13 of 17 28 of 90 3 of 8 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lyoto Machida 5 of 18 27% 2 of 11 1 of 3 2 of 4 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gegard Mousasi 5 of 13 38% 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 7 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lyoto Machida 6 of 26 23% 3 of 22 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gegard Mousasi 10 of 31 32% 5 of 24 0 of 1 5 of 6 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Lyoto Machida 7 of 29 24% 5 of 22 2 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gegard Mousasi 9 of 23 39% 5 of 18 3 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 18 3 of 5 0 of 0
4 Lyoto Machida 3 of 9 33% 2 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 2 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gegard Mousasi 7 of 19 36% 4 of 13 1 of 4 2 of 2 2 of 9 0 of 2 5 of 8
5 Lyoto Machida 7 of 19 36% 4 of 14 2 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 3
Gegard Mousasi 5 of 20 25% 4 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Maurício Rua - Fight History
LOSS vs Ihor Potieria
TKO (punches) R1 4:05 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ihor Potieria 0 17 of 31 54% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Maurício Rua 1 21 of 41 51% 27 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ihor Potieria 0 17 of 31 54% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Maurício Rua 1 21 of 41 51% 27 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ihor Potieria 17 of 31 54% 4 of 17 3 of 4 10 of 10 17 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 21 of 41 51% 16 of 35 3 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ihor Potieria 17 of 31 54% 4 of 17 3 of 4 10 of 10 17 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 21 of 41 51% 16 of 35 3 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Big Brady calls this the sketchiest fight on the card and is staying far away from betting. He notes Potieria has power and finishing ability, with most wins in the first round, but is not sold on his UFC caliber. Shogun is washed at 41 and has been for a while. Potieria has a huge hole in takedown defense, but Shogun doesn't wrestle much. He leans towards Potieria by first-round knockout but has no confidence.

"pateria first found knockout for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Cody picks Ihor Potieria confidently, noting Potieria's power, speed, and youth advantage over an aging Shogun. He says Shogun is past his prime, has poor durability, and is retiring, which historically leads to losses. He thinks Potieria will land something early and put Shogun away. He mentions Shogun's recent performances have been poor, and that Potieria is a limited striker but enough to beat the current Shogun.

mentions Shogun's retirement announcement as a negative factor
"I think he's going to land something he's going to put him away he showed in that sadolski fight on the contender series that he absolutely does have good power"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Connor agrees with Zane, stating Shogun's prime ended in 2009 and he's been too slow and fragile. He notes Potieria is not very good but not bad enough to lose to Shogun at this point.

"He's a decent athlete with speed and size for the division."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Paul picks Ihor Potieria, agreeing with Cody. He says he hopes he's wrong but thinks Potieria will win. He notes Shogun's decline and the retirement announcement curse. He says he won't bet on this fight but picks Potieria. He mentions Shogun's legendary status but says his time is up.

not betting on this fight
"I hate to say I agree with you and I'm not even really going to add anything to it I hope I'm wrong I'm picking ihor I won't be betting on this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

The Guru picks Potieria despite calling him a 'can crusher.' He notes Shogun is 41 and looked awful in recent fights, struggling against Saint Preux. Potieria is young and scrappy, and the Guru trusts the younger fighter to land first. He predicts a first-round TKO for Potieria, though he admits it would be nice to see Shogun win.

TKO in first round
"I'm going with Igor pateria I think you'll find the TKO on Shogun Shogun looks awful in his last few fights"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Zane picks Potieria because Shogun is too slow and lacks durability. He notes Potieria is a decent athlete with speed and size, and can take shots. He mentions Shogun's recent losses to Paul Craig and OSP show he's done.

"You got to pick him because you can't pick Shogun anymore."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ovince Saint Preux 0 54 of 99 54% 54 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 62 of 112 55% 62 of 112 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ovince Saint Preux 0 20 of 38 52% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ovince Saint Preux 0 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ovince Saint Preux 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ovince Saint Preux 54 of 99 54% 18 of 53 11 of 17 25 of 29 54 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 62 of 112 55% 18 of 57 36 of 43 8 of 12 62 of 112 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ovince Saint Preux 20 of 38 52% 4 of 20 6 of 7 10 of 11 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 20 of 34 58% 4 of 15 13 of 14 3 of 5 20 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ovince Saint Preux 21 of 33 63% 8 of 14 4 of 8 9 of 11 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 20 of 39 51% 4 of 19 13 of 15 3 of 5 20 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ovince Saint Preux 13 of 28 46% 6 of 19 1 of 2 6 of 7 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 22 of 39 56% 10 of 23 10 of 14 2 of 2 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Angelo picks Ovince Saint Preux despite his gut feeling for Shogun. He reasons that Saint Preux's athleticism and 66% takedown defense will make it tough for Shogun to take him down. He admits it goes against his childhood watching fights but goes with Saint Preux. He makes no bet on this fight.

No bet
"I got to go with oven st prue here but i'm not no no bet i am not making a bet here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Big Brady picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by first-round finish, but he is hesitant. He believes OSP is the less washed fighter and that Shogun has looked poor recently, getting knocked out by Paul Craig and struggling with aging opponents. Stylistically, OSP has the advantage on the feet and can also take Shogun down. However, OSP is 39 and has lost two in a row by knockout, so confidence is low. Brady expects OSP to finish Shogun early, but he would not recommend betting on this fight due to the red flags.

first round finish
"I gotta go osp here I'm going to say osp wins I'm going to say he kind of runs through shogun whether it's a knockout on the feet whether it's a grounded pound tko whether it's a submission on the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Cody picks OSP, but emphasizes that weigh-ins are crucial. He notes OSP's recent weight misses and injuries, but believes OSP has been fighting better competition lately and giving a better account of himself. In contrast, Shogun is a shell of his former self, with poor performances in his last three fights. Cody thinks OSP's recent activity and level of competition give him the edge, despite the weight concerns.

"i gotta retain with osb here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Daniel Levi picks Shogun Rua as a slight underdog, acknowledging he is a fanboy but also seeing a path to victory. He thinks Shogun has the better process and technique, and may be more motivated after being knocked out quickly in their first fight. However, he is not confident because Shogun's durability is a major concern. He considers a small half-unit bet on Shogun moneyline but does not commit to a bet in the transcript.

Daniel mentions he is not comfortable laying -250 on OSP. He considers a small bet on Shogun but does not confirm placing it. He notes OSP by KO at +250 is a decent prop but prefers moneyline.
"I'm picking Shogun to win this fight. I don't hate it man, and if you are gonna bet the fight, I mean with you if you're betting the money line no chance I'm laying chalk on OSP."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

The host picks Ovince Saint Preux to win by knockout, likely early. He references their first fight where OSP starched Shogun in 34 seconds. He notes Shogun's age and slowed striking, and OSP's desire to replicate the finish. He prefers betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' at similar odds to OSP moneyline, and likes OSP round 1 at +200. He expects OSP to land on Shogun's chin and put him out.

fight doesn't go to decision; OSP round 1 +200
"same proof decide here he's going to go out there he's going to land on the chin and put him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses OSP's weight issues and Shogun's decline, noting that OSP hasn't looked great and Shogun is a shell of himself. He considers it a dogger pass situation and cannot pull the trigger on Shogun. He does not express a preference for either fighter.

"i guess it's a dogger pass situation again for me here like osp hasn't been looking great himself he's super slow it's probably pretty good matchmaking but like are you really gonna have the cajones to pull the trigger on …"
LOSS vs Paul Craig
TKO (submission to punches) R2 3:36 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 10 of 28 35% 25 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Maurício Rua 0 29 of 57 50% 54 of 88 4 of 8 50% 0 1 3:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 6 of 15 40% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Maurício Rua 0 8 of 24 33% 21 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:45
2 Paul Craig 0 4 of 13 30% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 0 21 of 33 63% 33 of 49 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 10 of 28 35% 6 of 22 2 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 2
Maurício Rua 29 of 57 50% 17 of 38 4 of 9 8 of 10 16 of 35 4 of 11 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 6 of 15 40% 3 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
Maurício Rua 8 of 24 33% 3 of 15 1 of 4 4 of 5 5 of 15 3 of 9 0 of 0
2 Paul Craig 4 of 13 30% 3 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 21 of 33 63% 14 of 23 3 of 5 4 of 5 11 of 20 1 of 2 9 of 11
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Big Brady picks Paul Craig to win by first-round knockout. He notes Craig is improving and has a 100% finish rate, while Shogun is on his way out and looked poor in his last fight. He thinks Craig is the better striker now and will finish early.

"i'm going to say paul craig knocks out shogun in the first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Daniel picks Shogun as an underdog, citing his one-punch knockout power and experience. He notes Shogun's durability is waning but believes if he avoids an early finish, he can win on the scorecards. He sees Paul Craig's submission threat as less effective against Shogun, who survived Craig's guard in their first fight.

knockout
"i'm going to pick him to win outright and i think at the betting window it is a dogger pass situation i'm not going to disrespect the legend i'm gonna go with mauricio shogun hua to knock out paul craig"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Paul Craig

The host picks Paul Craig to win by submission, but is not confident due to Craig's gas tank issues and the line being too high. He thinks Shogun's durability is fading and Craig's jiu-jitsu could get the finish, but recommends passing on betting this fight.

"I'm going to go with Paul Craig I'm going to go with the youth um I'm going to go with the potential of that Jiu-Jitsu"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Paul Craig

The MMA Guru picks Paul Craig to win by TKO in the first round. He believes Craig's youth will be a huge factor, and that Craig almost finished Shogun in the first fight. He expects Craig to be more explosive and get the finish standing.

first round tko
"i think he'll get the job done against shogun hua by tko in the first round"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 0 54 of 103 52% 78 of 129 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:57
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 0 46 of 100 46% 75 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 0 16 of 36 44% 24 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:29
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 0 13 of 30 43% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Maurício Rua 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 0 15 of 39 38% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
3 Maurício Rua 0 23 of 36 63% 39 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:17
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 54 of 103 52% 27 of 72 11 of 14 16 of 17 45 of 91 6 of 6 3 of 6
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 46 of 100 46% 39 of 91 7 of 9 0 of 0 41 of 95 1 of 1 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 16 of 36 44% 8 of 26 0 of 1 8 of 9 11 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 13 of 30 43% 13 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 15 of 31 48% 7 of 22 5 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 15 of 39 38% 10 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 34 1 of 1 4 of 4
3 Maurício Rua 23 of 36 63% 12 of 24 6 of 7 5 of 5 20 of 30 0 of 0 3 of 6
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 18 of 31 58% 16 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Big Brady picks Shogun because he expects him to be the busier fighter and use takedowns, as he did in their previous fights. He acknowledges that Lil Nog has power and could knock Shogun out, especially given Shogun's poor performance against Paul Craig. He calls the fight ugly and says he wouldn't bet it, but leans Shogun by decision.

Shogun by decision; if betting, take a shot on Lil Nog by KO
"I'm gonna go with shogun here you know just because he's going to be the busier fighter the more active fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Daniel leans Shogun because he has beaten Little Nog twice before and can revert to takedowns. He notes both are on the decline but Shogun's low kicks and takedowns should be the difference. He advises passing at the betting window and just enjoying the fight.

pass at the betting window
"i'm a lean with shogun he's beat him twice before he knows what he's got to do and he can always revert back to the takedowns to get it done so i'ma lean with shogun here but at the betting …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

Shogun is six years younger and has shown better cardio, going three rounds with younger fighters and even finishing some late. Nogueira has been inactive and finished early in recent fights. Expect a tentative fight with clinching and takedowns, likely going over 1.5 rounds. Shogun should win by decision or late stoppage.

Over 1.5 rounds (-125)
"i like shogun to win this fight by decision or even third round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Rua

The MMA Guru picks Shogun Rua, believing he still has something left, while Nogueira looks damaged and stiff from his career. He notes Nogueira is coming off a KO loss and shows signs of CTE. He predicts Shogun will get a TKO in the second round, but acknowledges both are old and anything can happen.

TKO in the second round
"I think Shogun gets him in the second round by TKO."
LOSS vs Paul Craig
Draw (split) (29–28, 28–29, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Nov 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 0 25 of 66 37% 51 of 108 1 of 3 33% 0 0 8:21
Paul Craig 0 51 of 99 51% 106 of 160 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 0 7 of 24 29% 14 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:24
Paul Craig 0 31 of 58 53% 45 of 72 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:05
2 Maurício Rua 0 9 of 24 37% 22 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
Paul Craig 0 10 of 16 62% 31 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Maurício Rua 0 9 of 18 50% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:20
Paul Craig 0 10 of 25 40% 30 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 25 of 66 37% 19 of 57 1 of 2 5 of 7 16 of 48 1 of 1 8 of 17
Paul Craig 51 of 99 51% 30 of 71 14 of 20 7 of 8 39 of 82 9 of 13 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 7 of 24 29% 6 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Paul Craig 31 of 58 53% 20 of 41 8 of 13 3 of 4 22 of 45 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 9 of 24 37% 8 of 22 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 5 of 11
Paul Craig 10 of 16 62% 6 of 11 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Maurício Rua 9 of 18 50% 5 of 12 1 of 1 3 of 5 6 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 6
Paul Craig 10 of 25 40% 4 of 19 3 of 3 3 of 3 9 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 2
WIN vs Tyson Pedro
TKO (punches) R3 0:43 · UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Dec 02, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 1 30 of 56 53% 62 of 94 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:20
Tyson Pedro 0 31 of 44 70% 36 of 49 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 0 10 of 21 47% 12 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 41 73% 35 of 46 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:41
2 Maurício Rua 0 6 of 11 54% 36 of 47 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:33
Tyson Pedro 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Maurício Rua 1 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Tyson Pedro 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 30 of 56 53% 23 of 45 2 of 3 5 of 8 12 of 26 1 of 2 17 of 28
Tyson Pedro 31 of 44 70% 21 of 33 9 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 33 10 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 10 of 21 47% 6 of 15 1 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1
Tyson Pedro 30 of 41 73% 20 of 31 9 of 9 1 of 1 20 of 30 10 of 11 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 6 of 11 54% 4 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7
Tyson Pedro 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Maurício Rua 14 of 24 58% 13 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 20
Tyson Pedro 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
KO (elbow and punches) R1 1:29 · UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · Jul 22, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 1 23 of 31 74% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Rua 1 23 of 31 74% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 4 of 12 33% 0 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 23 of 31 74% 21 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 2 23 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 4 of 12 33% 0 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Rua 23 of 31 74% 21 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 2 23 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Gian Villante
TKO (head kick and punches) R3 0:59 · UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Mar 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 2 94 of 173 54% 94 of 174 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:04
Gian Villante 0 55 of 151 36% 55 of 151 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 1 39 of 77 50% 39 of 77 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:00
Gian Villante 0 25 of 69 36% 25 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Maurício Rua 0 38 of 68 55% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Gian Villante 0 27 of 68 39% 27 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Maurício Rua 1 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gian Villante 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 94 of 173 54% 68 of 140 16 of 20 10 of 13 94 of 171 0 of 2 0 of 0
Gian Villante 55 of 151 36% 48 of 143 3 of 4 4 of 4 55 of 151 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 39 of 77 50% 28 of 61 6 of 9 5 of 7 39 of 75 0 of 2 0 of 0
Gian Villante 25 of 69 36% 21 of 64 2 of 3 2 of 2 25 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 38 of 68 55% 26 of 55 7 of 7 5 of 6 38 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gian Villante 27 of 68 39% 25 of 66 1 of 1 1 of 1 27 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Maurício Rua 17 of 28 60% 14 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gian Villante 3 of 14 21% 2 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0