UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun · Oct 24, 2009 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun Next Fight
Age 43
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 240 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 44
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Cain Velasquez
6.37 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
2.33 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
5.13 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ben Rothwell
3.71 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
4.63 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
0.68 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Cain Velasquez - Fight History
LOSS vs Francis Ngannou
KO (punches) R1 0:26 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Feb 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Ngannou 0 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cain Velasquez 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Ngannou 0 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cain Velasquez 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Ngannou 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 3
Cain Velasquez 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Ngannou 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 3
Cain Velasquez 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Travis Browne
TKO (punches) R1 4:57 · UFC 200: Tate vs. Nunes · Jul 09, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cain Velasquez 1 50 of 79 63% 90 of 124 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:36
Travis Browne 0 6 of 27 22% 6 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cain Velasquez 1 50 of 79 63% 90 of 124 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:36
Travis Browne 0 6 of 27 22% 6 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cain Velasquez 50 of 79 63% 35 of 63 5 of 6 10 of 10 28 of 49 5 of 8 17 of 22
Travis Browne 6 of 27 22% 5 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cain Velasquez 50 of 79 63% 35 of 63 5 of 6 10 of 10 28 of 49 5 of 8 17 of 22
Travis Browne 6 of 27 22% 5 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (guillotine choke) R3 2:13 · UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum · Jun 13, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fabrício Werdum 0 88 of 169 52% 117 of 201 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:58
Cain Velasquez 0 96 of 174 55% 101 of 180 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fabrício Werdum 0 35 of 65 53% 58 of 90 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:28
Cain Velasquez 0 21 of 54 38% 22 of 56 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:09
2 Fabrício Werdum 0 43 of 81 53% 44 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cain Velasquez 0 63 of 95 66% 66 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
3 Fabrício Werdum 0 10 of 23 43% 15 of 29 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:30
Cain Velasquez 0 12 of 25 48% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fabrício Werdum 88 of 169 52% 54 of 128 6 of 8 28 of 33 65 of 135 23 of 34 0 of 0
Cain Velasquez 96 of 174 55% 79 of 150 12 of 19 5 of 5 79 of 149 17 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fabrício Werdum 35 of 65 53% 24 of 53 3 of 3 8 of 9 23 of 46 12 of 19 0 of 0
Cain Velasquez 21 of 54 38% 14 of 43 5 of 9 2 of 2 18 of 47 3 of 7 0 of 0
2 Fabrício Werdum 43 of 81 53% 23 of 55 3 of 5 17 of 21 37 of 72 6 of 9 0 of 0
Cain Velasquez 63 of 95 66% 53 of 82 7 of 10 3 of 3 53 of 82 10 of 13 0 of 0
3 Fabrício Werdum 10 of 23 43% 7 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0
Cain Velasquez 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0
TKO (slam and punch) R5 3:09 · UFC 166: Velasquez vs. dos Santos III · Oct 19, 2013
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cain Velasquez 1 123 of 201 61% 274 of 378 2 of 13 15% 1 0 17:23
Junior dos Santos 0 46 of 122 37% 62 of 140 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cain Velasquez 0 22 of 33 66% 52 of 66 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:03
Junior dos Santos 0 10 of 26 38% 15 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cain Velasquez 0 18 of 32 56% 53 of 72 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:41
Junior dos Santos 0 7 of 19 36% 11 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
3 Cain Velasquez 1 39 of 64 60% 67 of 101 0 of 3 0% 1 0 3:37
Junior dos Santos 0 8 of 24 33% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Cain Velasquez 0 33 of 54 61% 61 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:26
Junior dos Santos 0 15 of 41 36% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Cain Velasquez 0 11 of 18 61% 41 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Junior dos Santos 0 6 of 12 50% 7 of 14 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cain Velasquez 123 of 201 61% 96 of 168 7 of 8 20 of 25 44 of 84 66 of 99 13 of 18
Junior dos Santos 46 of 122 37% 36 of 106 10 of 16 0 of 0 24 of 84 21 of 37 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cain Velasquez 22 of 33 66% 13 of 21 4 of 5 5 of 7 8 of 13 12 of 18 2 of 2
Junior dos Santos 10 of 26 38% 6 of 20 4 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 20 4 of 5 1 of 1
2 Cain Velasquez 18 of 32 56% 10 of 23 1 of 1 7 of 8 7 of 14 11 of 18 0 of 0
Junior dos Santos 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 15 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Cain Velasquez 39 of 64 60% 34 of 59 0 of 0 5 of 5 11 of 25 19 of 25 9 of 14
Junior dos Santos 8 of 24 33% 7 of 19 1 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 16 4 of 8 0 of 0
4 Cain Velasquez 33 of 54 61% 29 of 49 2 of 2 2 of 3 14 of 25 19 of 29 0 of 0
Junior dos Santos 15 of 41 36% 12 of 38 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 25 9 of 16 0 of 0
5 Cain Velasquez 11 of 18 61% 10 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 7 5 of 9 2 of 2
Junior dos Santos 6 of 12 50% 4 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 8 2 of 4 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R1 1:21 · UFC 160: Velasquez vs. Bigfoot 2 · May 25, 2013
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cain Velasquez 1 18 of 28 64% 18 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Antônio Silva 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cain Velasquez 1 18 of 28 64% 18 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Antônio Silva 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cain Velasquez 18 of 28 64% 16 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 15 1 of 1 11 of 12
Antônio Silva 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cain Velasquez 18 of 28 64% 16 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 15 1 of 1 11 of 12
Antônio Silva 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–43, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 155: dos Santos vs. Velasquez 2 · Dec 29, 2012
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cain Velasquez 0 57 of 137 41% 66 of 146 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Junior dos Santos 1 111 of 224 49% 210 of 339 11 of 33 33% 0 0 13:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cain Velasquez 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Junior dos Santos 1 42 of 88 47% 64 of 115 3 of 9 33% 0 0 1:44
2 Cain Velasquez 0 2 of 8 25% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Junior dos Santos 0 24 of 38 63% 45 of 63 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:49
3 Cain Velasquez 0 13 of 30 43% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Junior dos Santos 0 22 of 44 50% 40 of 67 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:41
4 Cain Velasquez 0 12 of 34 35% 15 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Junior dos Santos 0 10 of 28 35% 25 of 43 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:26
5 Cain Velasquez 0 13 of 22 59% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Junior dos Santos 0 13 of 26 50% 36 of 51 1 of 8 12% 0 0 3:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cain Velasquez 57 of 137 41% 32 of 102 25 of 35 0 of 0 43 of 117 14 of 20 0 of 0
Junior dos Santos 111 of 224 49% 82 of 193 25 of 27 4 of 4 35 of 122 39 of 53 37 of 49
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cain Velasquez 17 of 43 39% 12 of 34 5 of 9 0 of 0 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Junior dos Santos 42 of 88 47% 35 of 81 5 of 5 2 of 2 18 of 57 4 of 4 20 of 27
2 Cain Velasquez 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
Junior dos Santos 24 of 38 63% 18 of 31 6 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 11 10 of 13 10 of 14
3 Cain Velasquez 13 of 30 43% 6 of 19 7 of 11 0 of 0 8 of 24 5 of 6 0 of 0
Junior dos Santos 22 of 44 50% 13 of 34 8 of 9 1 of 1 5 of 19 17 of 25 0 of 0
4 Cain Velasquez 12 of 34 35% 6 of 26 6 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 26 5 of 8 0 of 0
Junior dos Santos 10 of 28 35% 6 of 24 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 20 6 of 8 0 of 0
5 Cain Velasquez 13 of 22 59% 7 of 16 6 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 18 3 of 4 0 of 0
Junior dos Santos 13 of 26 50% 10 of 23 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 15 2 of 3 7 of 8
TKO (punches) R1 3:36 · UFC 146: dos Santos vs. Mir · May 26, 2012
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cain Velasquez 0 28 of 50 56% 53 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:29
Antônio Silva 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cain Velasquez 0 28 of 50 56% 53 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:29
Antônio Silva 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cain Velasquez 28 of 50 56% 28 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 28 of 50
Antônio Silva 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cain Velasquez 28 of 50 56% 28 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 28 of 50
Antônio Silva 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
KO (punches) R1 1:04 · UFC on Fox: Velasquez vs. dos Santos · Nov 12, 2011
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Junior dos Santos 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cain Velasquez 1 8 of 13 61% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Junior dos Santos 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cain Velasquez 1 8 of 13 61% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Junior dos Santos 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 5 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cain Velasquez 8 of 13 61% 6 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Junior dos Santos 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 5 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cain Velasquez 8 of 13 61% 6 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 4 of 5
Ben Rothwell - Fight History
TKO (punches) R1 0:32 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcos Rogério de Lima 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 14 of 24 58% 11 of 20 0 of 1 3 of 3 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 14 of 24 58% 11 of 20 0 of 1 3 of 3 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Angelo leans toward Ben Rothwell, reasoning that he only needs one takedown to finish, while de Lima needs 15 minutes of a clean game plan. He acknowledges de Lima's path to victory through stick-and-move but thinks Rothwell's size and durability are key.

"i'm ever so slightly razor thin ever so slightly leaning with big ben he only needs one single takedown to get this fight done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Big Brady is confident in Ben Rothwell, citing de Lima's atrocious cardio and tendency to fade after one round. He notes Rothwell has a legendary chin (not knocked out since 2009) and superior takedown defense. Brady expects Rothwell to take over as the fight progresses and predicts a second-round submission, as de Lima has been submitted five times.

Rothwell by submission in round 2
"give me ben roethlit a win and give me ben rothwell to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Cody emphasizes Rothwell's durability (not finished since 2009) and de Lima's tendency to fade. He points out de Lima's poor takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He expects Rothwell to pressure, take de Lima down, and eventually submit him. He also notes Rothwell's 70% takedown defense and that de Lima gasses quickly.

Ben Rothwell wins by submission
"ben rothwell also he shows a 70 takedown rate or something uh he's given up one takedown since 2013"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Daniel Levi picks Ben Rothwell by submission, predicting that de Lima will be faster and more athletic early but will eventually make a mistake and tap to a choke. He references Rothwell's history of opportunistic finishes, including the comeback against Brandon Vera and the gogoplata against Josh Barnett. Levi notes de Lima's tendency to quit when put in a choke, making Rothwell's submission threat a key factor.

submission, third round gogoplata
"it's gonna be big ben via third round go go choke"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Jacob picks Ben Rothwell, believing he will plod forward, make it dirty, and grind out a win. He notes that Rothwell has a granite chin and hasn't been TKO'd since 2009. Jacob thinks de Lima has no way to win except maybe a weird decision.

"i think ben just wins one of those fights that he wins he just plots for it boom boom boom boom a little bit of volume makes it dirty against the cage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Paul notes that de Lima is a quitter when things go south and has a pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rothwell is durable, has better submission skills, and will wear de Lima down. He predicts Rothwell wins by submission in round 2, and mentions a prop at 13-1.

Ben Rothwell wins by submission (round 2) at +1300
"ben rothwell's the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Ben Rothwell

The Guru picks Ben Rothwell by unanimous decision (29-28). He expects a close first round with de Lima landing big shots, but Rothwell's pressure and physicality will take over in later rounds. Rothwell will break de Lima down with clinch work and strikes, winning the last two rounds clearly.

unanimous decision 29-28
"i'm going to go with ben rothwell via unanimous decision"
WIN vs Chris Barnett
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:07 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ben Rothwell 0 60 of 101 59% 72 of 120 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:03
Chris Barnett 0 33 of 85 38% 34 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ben Rothwell 0 30 of 51 58% 42 of 70 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:48
Chris Barnett 0 16 of 43 37% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Ben Rothwell 0 30 of 50 60% 30 of 50 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Chris Barnett 0 17 of 42 40% 17 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ben Rothwell 60 of 101 59% 47 of 88 10 of 10 3 of 3 54 of 94 6 of 7 0 of 0
Chris Barnett 33 of 85 38% 20 of 69 4 of 5 9 of 11 31 of 81 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ben Rothwell 30 of 51 58% 20 of 41 8 of 8 2 of 2 24 of 44 6 of 7 0 of 0
Chris Barnett 16 of 43 37% 10 of 35 1 of 2 5 of 6 14 of 39 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Ben Rothwell 30 of 50 60% 27 of 47 2 of 2 1 of 1 30 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Barnett 17 of 42 40% 10 of 34 3 of 3 4 of 5 17 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Big Brady confidently picks Rothwell, expecting an early finish via knockout or submission. He notes Barnett's low level of competition and tendency to give up his back, while Rothwell's experience and power should be enough. He suggests an inside-the-distance prop.

Rothwell by first-round knockout; inside the distance
"i still think he has what it takes to beat chris barnett and he should absolutely finish chris barnett here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Cody Saftic picks Ben Rothwell, noting that Barnett is a short, overweight heavyweight with poor cardio. He believes Rothwell will weather Barnett's early athleticism and then tire him out, eventually getting a TKO or submission. Saftic is intrigued by Rothwell by submission at 11-1, given Rothwell's history of submissions, but acknowledges Barnett has never been submitted. He suggests a small play on the prop.

Rothwell by submission (11-1), Rothwell by TKO
"ben rothwell submission 11-1 tell me why that's a bad idea"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Daniel Levi leans toward Ben Rothwell, noting that Rothwell has more UFC experience and that Chris Barnett has been knocked out by lesser competition. However, he is hesitant because Rothwell is at the worst point of his career, slow, and has not looked good in a long time. He calls it a dog or pass situation and says he cannot lay the price on Rothwell.

"i think that this is a fight ben rothwell can win man um it's just that trusting rothwell at that price you can't do it these are heavyweights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Matt picks Ben Rothwell to win by decision, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Chris Barnett is a live dog due to his deceptive athleticism and power, but thinks Rothwell's experience and clinch work will be enough. He is not trusting Rothwell at -310, as Rothwell doesn't always let his hands go. He expects a grinding decision rather than a finish.

"i do like ben rothball to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Paul Shaughnessy picks Rothwell but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Rothwell is past his prime and has looked slow, but Barnett is a short-notice replacement with a history of gassing. He believes Rothwell will eventually get the win, but at -300, he prefers to pass or look for a prop. He mentions that Rothwell by knockout is around even money, which might be a better play.

Rothwell by knockout (plus money)
"i'm going to pass on that i don't want ben roethlit three to one but yeah i can't deny he's the rightful favorite he's the rifle pick so i'll go with roswell"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Ben Rothwell

The MMA Guru predicts Ben Rothwell will win by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. He expects Chris Barnett to come out wild with spinning attacks and big bombs in the first round, but will gas out due to short notice and poor conditioning. Rothwell will then take him down and finish with ground and pound in the second round.

"i'm going to go with ben rothwell in the second round by ground and pound tko"
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 89 of 276 32% 95 of 287 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Ben Rothwell 0 94 of 183 51% 155 of 274 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 46 of 134 34% 47 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 28 of 66 42% 31 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcin Tybura 0 30 of 93 32% 34 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Ben Rothwell 0 41 of 72 56% 44 of 76 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Marcin Tybura 0 13 of 49 26% 14 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 25 of 45 55% 80 of 128 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 89 of 276 32% 63 of 247 16 of 19 10 of 10 78 of 260 11 of 16 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 94 of 183 51% 69 of 154 15 of 19 10 of 10 89 of 165 3 of 12 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 46 of 134 34% 38 of 124 6 of 8 2 of 2 39 of 124 7 of 10 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 28 of 66 42% 23 of 60 5 of 6 0 of 0 28 of 60 0 of 6 0 of 0
2 Marcin Tybura 30 of 93 32% 19 of 82 6 of 6 5 of 5 27 of 89 3 of 4 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 41 of 72 56% 27 of 55 7 of 10 7 of 7 38 of 67 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Marcin Tybura 13 of 49 26% 6 of 41 4 of 5 3 of 3 12 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 25 of 45 55% 19 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 23 of 38 0 of 1 2 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Big Brady picks Rothwell due to his durability and power, noting Tybura has been knocked out four times and has a questionable chin. He expects Rothwell to pressure Tybura against the cage and land bombs. He acknowledges Rothwell is older (38) but believes his power and durability are key. He mentions the fight could be low output.

Rothwell by first round knockout; if line gets closer might take a shot on Rothwell
"i'm gonna go with the more durable fighter here... tybura has been knocked out like four times his chin is very questionable"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Daniel picks Ben Rothwell primarily because he believes Rothwell is tougher and hits harder. He acknowledges that Rothwell has looked slow since returning from suspension and takes a lot of damage, but he thinks Rothwell's pressure and durability will be enough. He also notes that Tybura has questionable toughness and may fold under pressure, but he wouldn't be surprised if Tybura wins a sloppy decision.

Daniel predicts a close, split decision, not a knockout. He mentions that Tybura could mix in head kicks because Rothwell fights with his hands down.
"I'll go with big ben but i'll say bye sweaty close split decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Rothwell's pressure and awkward striking angles will overwhelm Tybura, who lacks output and combination punching. Tybura's takedown attempts will be unsuccessful, and Rothwell's power will break him in the second round via TKO.

Rothwell inside distance at +270
"i think the pressure is just going to be too much for tybura"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The Guru picks Tybura as an underdog, believing his pressure-heavy style and improved conditioning will overwhelm Rothwell. He thinks Tybura will control the clinch against the cage and win a unanimous decision, as Rothwell lacks finishing ability. He notes the odds (Rothwell -200) are off and the fight should be 50-50.

unanimous decision win; odds comment: 'two to one favorite of ben rothwell is weird'
"first underdog pick of the card is marcin tybura for me i'm going to pick him against ben rothwell"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · May 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ben Rothwell 0 56 of 110 50% 86 of 142 1 of 3 33% 0 0 5:49
Ovince Saint Preux 1 42 of 82 51% 46 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ben Rothwell 0 7 of 14 50% 18 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Ovince Saint Preux 0 9 of 19 47% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ben Rothwell 0 19 of 41 46% 24 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:30
Ovince Saint Preux 1 13 of 27 48% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Ben Rothwell 0 30 of 55 54% 44 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Ovince Saint Preux 0 20 of 36 55% 21 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ben Rothwell 56 of 110 50% 37 of 89 15 of 17 4 of 4 40 of 79 14 of 29 2 of 2
Ovince Saint Preux 42 of 82 51% 27 of 62 13 of 15 2 of 5 33 of 70 9 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ben Rothwell 7 of 14 50% 3 of 10 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ovince Saint Preux 9 of 19 47% 2 of 7 6 of 8 1 of 4 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ben Rothwell 19 of 41 46% 13 of 35 5 of 5 1 of 1 13 of 30 6 of 11 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 13 of 27 48% 6 of 20 6 of 6 1 of 1 10 of 23 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Ben Rothwell 30 of 55 54% 21 of 44 6 of 8 3 of 3 22 of 37 8 of 18 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 20 of 36 55% 19 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 28 6 of 8 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 11, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Big Brady leans with Ben Rothwell as an underdog, believing Rothwell's power and chin give him a good chance to knock out Ovince Saint Preux. He thinks OSP will struggle to take Rothwell down and that the fight will stay on the feet, where Rothwell has the advantage. He acknowledges OSP could win a decision if Rothwell fights poorly, but sees a knockout as more likely and considers betting on Rothwell at plus odds.

Rothwell wins by knockout; considering a bet at +120
"I am thinking about placing a bet on Ben Rothwell especially at those odds"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 12, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Daniel Levi picks OSP, citing his athleticism and speed advantage over Rothwell, who has looked slow since his suspension. He notes OSP's suspect chin and cardio at heavyweight, and says he won't bet him at -140 due to those concerns, but still picks him for the win.

I will not play him at that line with that extra weight with that suspect cardio in that suspect chin
"I Eileen OSP but from a betting perspective I will not play him at that line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

The MMA Guru picks Ben Rothwell, noting that OSP is moving up to heavyweight and his chin won't magically improve. He highlights Rothwell's durability, having taken shots from Junior dos Santos and Blagojevich, and believes Rothwell will smother OSP and finish him in the second round. He also points out that OSP is 37 and has been rocked in recent fights.

TKO in the second round
"I'm gonna go with Ben Rothwell... he's gonna go out there put the pressure on OSP smother him... KO him in the second round."
WIN vs Stefan Struve
TKO (punches) R2 4:57 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Dec 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ben Rothwell 0 53 of 77 68% 63 of 87 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Stefan Struve 1 58 of 101 57% 71 of 114 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ben Rothwell 0 23 of 30 76% 28 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Stefan Struve 0 19 of 30 63% 23 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:12
2 Ben Rothwell 0 30 of 47 63% 35 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stefan Struve 1 39 of 71 54% 48 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ben Rothwell 53 of 77 68% 18 of 39 20 of 22 15 of 16 46 of 70 7 of 7 0 of 0
Stefan Struve 58 of 101 57% 41 of 83 13 of 13 4 of 5 33 of 66 20 of 29 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ben Rothwell 23 of 30 76% 4 of 10 8 of 9 11 of 11 22 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stefan Struve 19 of 30 63% 10 of 20 7 of 7 2 of 3 10 of 21 9 of 9 0 of 0
2 Ben Rothwell 30 of 47 63% 14 of 29 12 of 13 4 of 5 24 of 41 6 of 6 0 of 0
Stefan Struve 39 of 71 54% 31 of 63 6 of 6 2 of 2 23 of 45 11 of 20 5 of 6
LOSS vs Andrei Arlovski
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 152 of 263 57% 160 of 272 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Ben Rothwell 0 70 of 177 39% 75 of 183 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 54 of 103 52% 54 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 29 of 73 39% 29 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 49 of 87 56% 55 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Ben Rothwell 0 16 of 52 30% 21 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 49 of 73 67% 51 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Ben Rothwell 0 25 of 52 48% 25 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 152 of 263 57% 103 of 204 34 of 43 15 of 16 152 of 263 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 70 of 177 39% 55 of 155 9 of 16 6 of 6 70 of 176 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 54 of 103 52% 33 of 77 14 of 18 7 of 8 54 of 103 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 29 of 73 39% 20 of 62 5 of 7 4 of 4 29 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 49 of 87 56% 32 of 67 12 of 15 5 of 5 49 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 16 of 52 30% 12 of 46 3 of 5 1 of 1 16 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 49 of 73 67% 38 of 60 8 of 10 3 of 3 49 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 25 of 52 48% 23 of 47 1 of 4 1 of 1 25 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Blagoy Ivanov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos · Mar 09, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Blagoy Ivanov 0 72 of 178 40% 73 of 179 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 70 of 163 42% 70 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Blagoy Ivanov 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Blagoy Ivanov 0 29 of 75 38% 29 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Blagoy Ivanov 0 24 of 64 37% 25 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 33 of 82 40% 33 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Blagoy Ivanov 72 of 178 40% 50 of 156 19 of 19 3 of 3 70 of 175 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 70 of 163 42% 47 of 135 6 of 10 17 of 18 69 of 162 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Blagoy Ivanov 19 of 39 48% 11 of 31 8 of 8 0 of 0 17 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 9 of 22 40% 4 of 17 0 of 0 5 of 5 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Blagoy Ivanov 29 of 75 38% 24 of 70 4 of 4 1 of 1 29 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 28 of 59 47% 21 of 48 2 of 6 5 of 5 28 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Blagoy Ivanov 24 of 64 37% 15 of 55 7 of 7 2 of 2 24 of 63 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 33 of 82 40% 22 of 70 4 of 4 7 of 8 32 of 81 1 of 1 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs. dos Santos · Apr 10, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Junior dos Santos 0 77 of 212 36% 78 of 213 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Ben Rothwell 0 157 of 247 63% 157 of 247 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Junior dos Santos 0 19 of 48 39% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 26 of 37 70% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Junior dos Santos 0 14 of 42 33% 15 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Ben Rothwell 0 29 of 49 59% 29 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Junior dos Santos 0 15 of 37 40% 15 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 29 of 43 67% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Junior dos Santos 0 18 of 48 37% 18 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 40 of 57 70% 40 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Junior dos Santos 0 11 of 37 29% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 33 of 61 54% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Junior dos Santos 77 of 212 36% 51 of 179 7 of 12 19 of 21 75 of 210 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 157 of 247 63% 65 of 147 92 of 100 0 of 0 156 of 246 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Junior dos Santos 19 of 48 39% 12 of 37 3 of 7 4 of 4 17 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 26 of 37 70% 10 of 21 16 of 16 0 of 0 26 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Junior dos Santos 14 of 42 33% 7 of 33 1 of 2 6 of 7 14 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 29 of 49 59% 11 of 30 18 of 19 0 of 0 29 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Junior dos Santos 15 of 37 40% 9 of 31 1 of 1 5 of 5 15 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 29 of 43 67% 8 of 21 21 of 22 0 of 0 28 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Junior dos Santos 18 of 48 37% 14 of 44 1 of 1 3 of 3 18 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 40 of 57 70% 21 of 36 19 of 21 0 of 0 40 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Junior dos Santos 11 of 37 29% 9 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 2 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 33 of 61 54% 15 of 39 18 of 22 0 of 0 33 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0