vs
+108 -112
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov Next Fight
Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 11"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Bogdan Grad
4.06 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
5.06 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
4.22 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Lucas Alexander
4.69 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
2.87 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Bogdan Grad
Moneyline
FanDuel +108
KO/TKO
FanDuel +340
Submission
FanDuel +850
Decision
BetRivers +430
Lucas Alexander
Moneyline
DraftKings -112
KO/TKO
FanDuel +260
Submission
BetRivers +2000
Decision
BetWay +275
Bogdan Grad - Fight History
LOSS vs Luke Riley
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 7 of 13 53% 17 of 24 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:55
Luke Riley 1 14 of 23 60% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 6 of 9 66% 16 of 20 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:55
Luke Riley 0 3 of 7 42% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bogdan Grad 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Riley 1 11 of 16 68% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 6
Luke Riley 14 of 23 60% 11 of 19 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 11 1 of 1 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6
Luke Riley 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bogdan Grad 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luke Riley 11 of 16 68% 10 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo leans Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, citing Riley's speed and cleaner striking. He notes Grad has a wrestling advantage but Riley has shown good takedown defense in every fight. Angelo warns that Cage Warriors prospects can be overhyped, so he's cautious but picks Riley due to speed being the biggest factor.

"I'm going to lean Luke. He's just faster, cleaner striker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady picks Luke Riley by third-round knockout, impressed by his power and striking. He notes Grad's hittability and questionable chin, and expects Riley to find the chin as Grad slows down. He acknowledges Grad's grappling path but doesn't think he'll fight smart.

third round knockout
"Give me Luke Riley to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Cody picks Luke Riley, believing his volume and cardio will overwhelm Grad. He notes that Grad has poor takedown defense and tends to lose position. Cody thinks Riley can work his way back into the fight if taken down and finish via knockout.

"Riley for me. Riley by knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Riley. He notes that Riley is speedy, crafty, and scrappy, and if Grad shows any weakness on the feet or fails to get takedowns, Riley will build a brutal assault. He mentions Riley's age (26) and potential to develop physicality. He also notes that Riley got hurt in a previous fight but showed inexperience.

"I'm with you. I pretty much agree across the board."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Riley is a nasty striker with good takedown defense, but the odds are too wide. Grad has grappling opportunities and could win by submission or decision. Riley by TKO is the prediction, but a sprinkle on Grad is considered.

sprinkle on Grad at +210
"I'll go uh Riley by TKO, but if I'm putting my money anywhere, it would be on the Grod side of things."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Paul leans towards Luke Riley but is tempted by Bogdan Grad as an underdog. He notes Riley's all-action style and gas tank, but acknowledges Grad's wrestling could be a problem. Paul ultimately sides with Riley due to his volume and finishing ability.

"I'm so tempted to take Bogdan grad, but that's one of the underdogs this week that I'm kind of on the fence about."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, believing Riley's size and striking will be too much. He notes Grad's struggles in the clinch against Naimov. He expects Riley to rip body shots and finish by TKO in the second or third round, though he acknowledges Grad is dangerous early.

second or third-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Luke Riley getting this one done by third-round TKO, late in the second-round TKO, maybe."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Zane picks Riley but acknowledges it's a fight he might lose. He notes that Grad is a high-motor, experienced fighter who can test Riley physically. He thinks Riley is faster, more precise, and smarter on the feet, and that Grad is slow and awkward with bad shot selection. He worries about Riley's physicality and takedown defense but believes Riley can fight his way back if not finished early.

Odds: Riley opened -150, now -250; Grad opened +130, now +210. Zane comments that any wider than that is probably too bad.
"I think I'll pick him here because I do really think Rod is like a, can you be in the UFC level of tests? And I think Riley is capable of passing that and being crafty and creative enough."
LOSS vs Muhammad Naimov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 18 of 54 33% 70 of 119 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:53
Bogdan Grad 0 31 of 64 48% 49 of 88 3 of 10 30% 0 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 22 45% 24 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Bogdan Grad 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 6 of 21 28% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Bogdan Grad 0 10 of 21 47% 15 of 27 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:01
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 2 of 11 18% 34 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
Bogdan Grad 0 6 of 13 46% 11 of 22 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 18 of 54 33% 11 of 45 3 of 3 4 of 6 16 of 50 2 of 4 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 31 of 64 48% 7 of 30 14 of 19 10 of 15 18 of 46 13 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 22 45% 6 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 4 9 of 19 1 of 3 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 15 of 30 50% 3 of 12 6 of 9 6 of 9 5 of 18 10 of 12 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 6 of 21 28% 3 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 10 of 21 47% 3 of 11 4 of 6 3 of 4 10 of 19 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 6 of 13 46% 1 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Muhammad Naimov, but with reservations. He thinks Naimov is slightly better everywhere and will win a close decision, but notes that Naimov doesn't chase finishes and may coast. He acknowledges Bogdan's finishing ability and the risk of a finish if Bogdan's cardio holds. He fades Naimov for fantasy due to low scoring potential.

Mentions Bogdan Grad at $7,400 as a good price if he has cardio; predicts decision.
"I think Naimov wins this fight. I think Naimov wins a close fight just like his last one."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Big Brady picks Muhammad Naimov, citing his power as a key factor. He notes that Bogdan Grad absorbs a high volume of strikes (8 per minute) and that Naimov has knockout power, having slept Jamie Mullarkey and hurt others. Brady thinks Naimov is more durable and has takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He predicts Naimov wins by first-round knockout, though he acknowledges Grad has more heart.

first round knockout
"I like Naimov to win. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Connor picks Naimov, agreeing that Naimov's athleticism and strength will overwhelm Grad, who is not strong in tie-ups and relies on outlasting opponents. He notes that Naimov's mistakes and over-aggression won't be punished by Grad, who lacks the athleticism to capitalize. He believes Naimov will be able to impose his will and win the fight.

"I think he can beat Bogdan Grad. Yeah. That's not a lot of deafness to Bogdan Grad's name, is there? It's not an athleticism that's going to take over in situations."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The host doesn't understand the love for Naimov outside of power punching. He thinks if Naimov can't get Grad out early, Grad will push a pace and pressure that Naimov can't keep up with, leading to a submission in the second or third round.

"I never understand the big love on Naimov outside of the power punching that he brings to the table. But if he can't get Grad out of there early, I'm expecting Grad to push a pace and pressure that Naimov …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, criticizing Bogdan Grad's lackluster performances. He notes Naimov's power and ability to manhandle opponents, and despite a loss to Felipe Lima, he sees Naimov as the better fighter. He predicts a dominant decision or first-round finish.

Naimov wins by decision or first-round finish
"I'm going to go with Muhammad Nimov here. I think he's still good. He's still very good."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Zane picks Naimov, citing his superior athleticism and physicality compared to Grad. He notes that Grad is a pace fighter who relies on accumulation, but lacks strength in tie-ups and is foot-slow. Naimov, despite being reckless, is strong and powerful in the clinch and will maul Grad. He draws a parallel to Rębecki vs Orolbai, where the more brutish fighter won.

"I got to pick Naimov and that, you know, for defining it on the same characteristics, you got to take the same kind of winner. Yep. Agreed."
KO R2 4:22 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 46 of 66 69% 59 of 86 3 of 8 37% 0 0 4:18
Lucas Alexander 0 34 of 52 65% 47 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:17
Lucas Alexander 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
2 Bogdan Grad 0 41 of 57 71% 46 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Lucas Alexander 0 19 of 29 65% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 46 of 66 69% 42 of 60 1 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 18 3 of 4 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 34 of 52 65% 19 of 37 7 of 7 8 of 8 29 of 45 3 of 4 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 5 of 9 55% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 15 of 23 65% 10 of 18 1 of 1 4 of 4 11 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 3
2 Bogdan Grad 41 of 57 71% 37 of 52 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 10 2 of 3 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 19 of 29 65% 9 of 19 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

Angelo picks Bogdan Grad because of his well-rounded skills, methodical approach, and high finishing rate (11 stoppages in 14 wins). He notes that Lucas Alexander is dangerous but coming off a KO loss to a low-level opponent. He believes Grad's control and pace will be mistaken for inability to finish, but Grad finds finishes without being reckless.

"I am picking Bogden grad here Lucas Alexander is somebody who can be finished I do think Lucas is good though and Lucas can be dangerous I'm going Bogden"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady likes Lucas Alexander's striking and thinks he trains with good guys. He notes Alexander has been submitted three times and has questionable takedown defense, but believes Alexander will piece up Bogdan Grad across three rounds. Grad is tough and has heart but is a walking punching bag. Brady would have liked Alexander more at +170 but thinks pick 'em is about accurate.

"I'm leaning Alexander here I don't think grad's gonna have a ton of success with the wrestling maybe he can mix in a takedown here or there but I do think it's going to be Alexander just pretty much piecing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander's Muay Thai striking and ability to fight from both stances will allow him to pick apart Grad's erratic style. Grad's explosivity and grappling may cause early trouble, but Alexander's technical striking and work off the back foot should secure a decision win.

"Alexander fighting from both stances and well off of his back foot will do a good enough job in terms of striking straight down the pipe against the more erratic style of Grad and that will lead to him picking …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Grad, believing he is good enough on the feet to hang with Lucas Alexander and will have a takedown threat advantage. He notes Alexander is coming off a first-round TKO loss and has been out for over a year. He thinks Grad can get the job done early.

"I'm actually going to go with Bogdan grad... I think the takedown threat's going to be there and I think it's in advantage of him"
Lucas Alexander - Fight History
LOSS vs Bogdan Grad
KO R2 4:22 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 46 of 66 69% 59 of 86 3 of 8 37% 0 0 4:18
Lucas Alexander 0 34 of 52 65% 47 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:17
Lucas Alexander 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
2 Bogdan Grad 0 41 of 57 71% 46 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Lucas Alexander 0 19 of 29 65% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 46 of 66 69% 42 of 60 1 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 18 3 of 4 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 34 of 52 65% 19 of 37 7 of 7 8 of 8 29 of 45 3 of 4 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 5 of 9 55% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 15 of 23 65% 10 of 18 1 of 1 4 of 4 11 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 3
2 Bogdan Grad 41 of 57 71% 37 of 52 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 10 2 of 3 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 19 of 29 65% 9 of 19 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

Angelo picks Bogdan Grad because of his well-rounded skills, methodical approach, and high finishing rate (11 stoppages in 14 wins). He notes that Lucas Alexander is dangerous but coming off a KO loss to a low-level opponent. He believes Grad's control and pace will be mistaken for inability to finish, but Grad finds finishes without being reckless.

"I am picking Bogden grad here Lucas Alexander is somebody who can be finished I do think Lucas is good though and Lucas can be dangerous I'm going Bogden"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady likes Lucas Alexander's striking and thinks he trains with good guys. He notes Alexander has been submitted three times and has questionable takedown defense, but believes Alexander will piece up Bogdan Grad across three rounds. Grad is tough and has heart but is a walking punching bag. Brady would have liked Alexander more at +170 but thinks pick 'em is about accurate.

"I'm leaning Alexander here I don't think grad's gonna have a ton of success with the wrestling maybe he can mix in a takedown here or there but I do think it's going to be Alexander just pretty much piecing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander's Muay Thai striking and ability to fight from both stances will allow him to pick apart Grad's erratic style. Grad's explosivity and grappling may cause early trouble, but Alexander's technical striking and work off the back foot should secure a decision win.

"Alexander fighting from both stances and well off of his back foot will do a good enough job in terms of striking straight down the pipe against the more erratic style of Grad and that will lead to him picking …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Grad, believing he is good enough on the feet to hang with Lucas Alexander and will have a takedown threat advantage. He notes Alexander is coming off a first-round TKO loss and has been out for over a year. He thinks Grad can get the job done early.

"I'm actually going to go with Bogdan grad... I think the takedown threat's going to be there and I think it's in advantage of him"
LOSS vs Jeka Saragih
KO (punches) R1 1:31 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeka Saragih 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lucas Alexander 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeka Saragih 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lucas Alexander 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeka Saragih 4 of 9 44% 3 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lucas Alexander 11 of 16 68% 6 of 10 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeka Saragih 4 of 9 44% 3 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lucas Alexander 11 of 16 68% 6 of 10 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Angelo picks Lucas Alexander, citing his superior technique, BJJ, and high-level experience. He notes that both fighters have one-punch power but believes Lucas is better everywhere. He mentions the odds at 3-to-1 seem a little wide because Jeka could end it at any moment, but still expects Lucas to win.

Odds comment: 3-to-1 on Lucas seems a little wide
"Lucas Alexander is going to be better here he's just going to be the better fighter he's going to have the same power as Jaa but better technique better BJJ more highlevel experience"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady notes that Saragih looked terrible against Anshul Jubilee and that Alexander has heavy kicks, including breaking someone's arm. He thinks Alexander is the much better striker and will break Saragih down with leg kicks, leading to an attritional TKO. He predicts a third-round knockout, noting Saragih is dangerous early but Alexander has never been knocked out.

"I'm going to take Lucas Alexander to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Cody picks Lucas Alexander confidently, citing his performance against Steve Peterson and Saragih's poor showing against Anheliger. He notes Saragih's one-dimensional striking and poor wrestling. Alexander is stronger, more dynamic, and can win by striking or grappling.

"Lucas Alexander absolutely rolles seems pretty clear to me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander is a technical striker with good anticipation and counter striking. He uses calf kicks and accurate punches to pick apart opponents. Saragih is reckless and lacks technical acumen, though he has durability. Alexander will chip away from distance and land big shots, likely winning by decision. Saragih's recklessness could lead to a knockout, but Alexander's power may not finish him.

"give me Lucas Alexander and I think he wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Paul picks Alexander, noting Saragih's flat-footed style and poor takedown defense. He believes Alexander's power and grappling will be too much. Paul thinks Saragih's only chance is a puncher's chance, but Alexander is the better fighter.

"I'm gonna take Lucas Alexander"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Alexander over Jeka Saragih, despite admitting he doubted Alexander early in his career. He criticizes Saragih as a 'diversity hire' who lost in the Road to UFC tournament final but got into the UFC anyway. He notes Alexander's reach and height advantage and expects him to score a decision win by keeping the fight rangy.

"I'm going to go Lucas Alexander... reach advantage, height advantage, going to keep it rangy on the feet, I reckon he'll be able to score his way to a decision win 30-27."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lucas Alexander 0 26 of 101 25% 27 of 102 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:31
Steven Peterson 1 85 of 158 53% 86 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lucas Alexander 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Peterson 0 24 of 41 58% 24 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Lucas Alexander 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Steven Peterson 0 27 of 54 50% 27 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Lucas Alexander 0 7 of 36 19% 8 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Steven Peterson 1 34 of 63 53% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lucas Alexander 26 of 101 25% 8 of 67 9 of 18 9 of 16 25 of 99 1 of 2 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 85 of 158 53% 43 of 108 20 of 27 22 of 23 78 of 142 1 of 1 6 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lucas Alexander 11 of 34 32% 2 of 18 4 of 6 5 of 10 10 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 24 of 41 58% 12 of 26 5 of 7 7 of 8 24 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lucas Alexander 8 of 31 25% 4 of 23 1 of 4 3 of 4 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 27 of 54 50% 10 of 35 6 of 8 11 of 11 27 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Lucas Alexander 7 of 36 19% 2 of 26 4 of 8 1 of 2 7 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 34 of 63 53% 21 of 47 9 of 12 4 of 4 27 of 47 1 of 1 6 of 15
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Angelo picks Peterson, citing his toughness and relentless pressure. He notes that Peterson is never the more skilled fighter but makes up for it with grit. He thinks Peterson will frustrate Alexander, who may not handle the constant forward pressure. However, he says he cannot trust Peterson with his money because he puts himself in danger and could get caught.

"Stephen Peterson's going to be the pick but at no offense to Steve Peterson because this guy's great I can't trust him with my money."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Big Brady picks Steven Peterson by submission, calling it a sneaky way to attack the fight. He notes Peterson's ability to get takedowns and his submission skills (42% of wins by sub), though he hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC. Brady thinks Peterson has more ways to win, especially if he gets the fight to the mat, and predicts a third-round submission. He acknowledges Alexander's striking advantage on the feet but favors Peterson's toughness and experience.

Peterson by submission in round 3
"I'm gonna say Peterson by submission I think that could be a sneaky way to look at it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Cody leans towards Alexander as a dog, citing his kickboxing advantage and physicality. He notes Peterson is a forward-pressure fighter but not high-level, and that Alexander could have more time to work in his comfort zone. He expects a close, possibly split decision, and sees value in the plus money.

Fight goes to decision
"If I needed to squeeze another Underdog I feel like I would take that shot on Lucas Alexander"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Connor also picks Steven Peterson, agreeing with Zane that Alexander is too inexperienced to handle Peterson's relentless pressure. He notes that Peterson's technical flaws don't matter if he just keeps coming, and that Alexander has shown he can be cornered and flustered. Connor says he would not be shocked if Alexander wins by landing a big shot, but he sees Peterson as the more reliable pick given Alexander's rawness.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think I'm going to take Peterson too."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Jacob picks Peterson but is not confident, noting that Peterson's toughness is his main attribute. He thinks Peterson should out-tough Alexander but that Alexander is dangerous and could land a big shot. He says there are better places to put money on this card.

"Stephen Peterson should be the play he should be able to out tough this guy do what he does throw volume in his face."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

The host is surprised to see Alexander as an underdog, believing his speed, slick striking, and calf kicking game will be too much for Peterson. He notes Alexander's performance against Jacob Kilburn showed he can pick apart a similar gritty opponent. He expects Alexander to win by decision, as Peterson is tough to put away.

"I expect the speed slick striking in calf kicking game of Lucas Alexander to come through in this matchup and get his hand raised"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

The Guru picks Peterson, calling it a lock. He criticizes Alexander's lack of finishing ability and poor performance against Britto. He highlights Peterson's durability (only finished once in 2013) and expects a dominant decision win.

"I'm going with Stephen Peterson here... I actually like Stephen Peterson here to drag this into deep Waters have a scrap with Lucas Alexander and win this fight by like 30 27 30-26 decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Zane picks Steven Peterson because he sees Lucas Alexander as a raw, undercooked fighter who lacks fight management and is easily overwhelmed by relentless pressure. Peterson is insanely durable and aggressive, and Zane believes his veteran pace and toughness will be too much for Alexander, who has shown he can be backed up and flustered. Zane notes that if Alexander wins, it would prove something he hasn't seen yet, whereas a Peterson win would just be expected.

Odds: Peterson opened at -170, currently -164; Alexander opened at +145, currently +133. Zane thinks the odds are about right.
"I'm kind of inclined to pick Peterson for like the veteran pace fighter pick."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:02 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanderson Brito 0 4 of 8 50% 7 of 11 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:25
Lucas Alexander 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanderson Brito 0 4 of 8 50% 7 of 11 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:25
Lucas Alexander 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanderson Brito 4 of 8 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanderson Brito 4 of 8 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lucas Alexander vs. Joanderson Brito
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brito (-350), Alexander (+255)

Round 1
The action ticks up one notch as we move to the featherweight division. After a veritable revolving door of opponents, heavy-handed Brazilian finisher Brito (13-3-1, 1-1 UFC) now squares off against fellow countryman Alexander (7-2, 0-0 UFC) in the latter’s UFC debut. While both are the same age, Brito holds greater high-level experience, having fought up through the LFA to DWCS and then the UFC. Meanwhile, his opponent comes in on a five-fight win streak, with most of those victories coming in Florida-based leagues. The third man in the Octagon is referee Chris Tognoni, and there is a touch of gloves to get things started. Brito immediately starts racing forward, and he wings a low kick that comes up short. Alexander responds with one that lands, but he already finds himself backed up to the cage and ducking a haymaker. Brito bears down on him and loads up on right hands, and he ducks a head kick by a matter of millimeters and allows Alexander to fall to the mat. Brito lifts his man up and slams him down, and then does this a second time when Alexander gets to his knees. Brito knees the thigh a few times before scooping “The Lion” up and dropping him down once more. When Alexander moves back to his feet, Brito jumps on his back to serve as a malicious backpack, while setting up some form of a rear-naked choke.
Brito tightens his legs around the waist and switches his arms to sink his right forearm under the chin. The choke is instantly tight and Brito has plenty of energy to crush it like a vice, and he drags the newcomer from behind down to the ground to make the submission purely academic. Barely one second after they hit the mat, and Alexander taps out frantically from the maneuver, as he would likely go out if the grip remained tight for too much longer.
Tubular work for "Tubarao" Brito, who now posts an even number of knockouts and submissions on his ledger while lifting his finish rate above 85%.

The Official Result
Joanderson Brito def. Lucas Alexander R1 2:02 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Cody picks Brito confidently, noting he is a powerhouse and coming off a career-best win. He points out that Alexander has missed weight multiple times and is taking the fight on short notice, which could affect his performance. He expects Brito to press forward and score takedowns.

"burrito's got this one so sign me up for Joe Anderson."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Paul also picks Brito, noting he is a solid prospect and Alexander is a late replacement with questionable credentials. He thinks Brito's aggression and takedowns will be too much, and Alexander may struggle to make weight.

"I'd be surprised if you're picking the other side... Brito is an absolute Powerhouse."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

The MMA Guru picks Joanderson Brito by first-round KO, citing his full camp and the short-notice replacement Lucas Alexander. He believes Alexander will be overly aggressive early, which will be his downfall against Brito. He notes that Brito's win over Andre Fili has aged well, and he trusts Brito's power and timing.

prediction: first-round KO
"first round KO for Joe Anderson Brita I really do"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

Angelo picks Bogdan Grad because of his well-rounded skills, methodical approach, and high finishing rate (11 stoppages in 14 wins). He notes that Lucas Alexander is dangerous but coming off a KO loss to a low-level opponent. He believes Grad's control and pace will be mistaken for inability to finish, but Grad finds finishes without being reckless.

"I am picking Bogden grad here Lucas Alexander is somebody who can be finished I do think Lucas is good though and Lucas can be dangerous I'm going Bogden"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady likes Lucas Alexander's striking and thinks he trains with good guys. He notes Alexander has been submitted three times and has questionable takedown defense, but believes Alexander will piece up Bogdan Grad across three rounds. Grad is tough and has heart but is a walking punching bag. Brady would have liked Alexander more at +170 but thinks pick 'em is about accurate.

"I'm leaning Alexander here I don't think grad's gonna have a ton of success with the wrestling maybe he can mix in a takedown here or there but I do think it's going to be Alexander just pretty much piecing up grad across three rounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander's Muay Thai striking and ability to fight from both stances will allow him to pick apart Grad's erratic style. Grad's explosivity and grappling may cause early trouble, but Alexander's technical striking and work off the back foot should secure a decision win.

"Alexander fighting from both stances and well off of his back foot will do a good enough job in terms of striking straight down the pipe against the more erratic style of Grad and that will lead to him picking him apart and winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Grad, believing he is good enough on the feet to hang with Lucas Alexander and will have a takedown threat advantage. He notes Alexander is coming off a first-round TKO loss and has been out for over a year. He thinks Grad can get the job done early.

"I'm actually going to go with Bogdan grad... I think the takedown threat's going to be there and I think it's in advantage of him"