UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo

Angelo picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her takedown defense (60% but effective against top wrestlers like Carla Esparza) and striking volume. He notes that Viviane Araújo is a grappler who can strike but has a negative striking differential and conditioning issues. He believes Grasso will defend enough takedowns to out-strike Araújo and win a decision, especially as Araújo fades in later rounds.

Big Brady picks Alexa Grasso to win by decision. He cites the five-round distance as the key factor, noting that Araújo fades in three-round fights due to her high-energy style. He expects Araújo to have early success but fade in rounds 3-5, allowing Grasso to take over. He says he would consider Araújo in a three-round fight but not at five rounds. He will not bet this fight.

Cody picks Grasso to win, likely by decision, citing her superior volume and improved grappling. He notes that Araújo has low volume and may struggle in a five-round fight, but the price at -225 is steep. He also likes the over 90.5 significant strikes prop on PrizePicks, as Grasso has reached that in three-round fights and this is five rounds.

Connor also picks Grasso, emphasizing that since the Harig loss, wrestling has been the main problem for Grasso, but Araujo can get one-tracked and lose to fighters like Jessica Eye. He thinks Grasso can create enough challenge to make Araujo fall into traps. He notes that Grasso has had inconsistent performances but still favors her.

Grasso has youth, cardio, footwork, and combination striking advantages. Araújo has power but tends to slow down in later rounds, and this is a five-round fight. Grasso trains at altitude and has shown great cardio, while Araújo's best path is an early KO. Grasso should take over after the first round and win by decision, possibly finding a late finish. The host mentions being the 'women's MMA whisperer' and is confident in Grasso despite the chalky line.

Paul sees this as a great live betting opportunity. He thinks Araújo may have early success with takedowns and physicality, but her cardio is suspect at 35 and in her first five-round fight. He notes that Araújo has tired in third rounds historically, and Grasso's output should win out over five rounds. He picks Grasso by decision but doesn't love it.

The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso, acknowledging that 90% of people are picking her. He likes Araújo as an underdog but believes in Grasso's improvements, especially her hands. He notes Grasso's first-round finish over Joanne Calderwood and win over Maycee Barber. He predicts a technical boxing match with Grasso stuffing takedowns and winning the first three rounds, ultimately 48-47 by decision.

Zane picks Grasso, citing her sharper punching and ability to land cleaner shots over five rounds. He notes that Grasso has been putting together nice combination counters in the pocket, similar to Robert Whittaker, and that Araujo is very hittable. He acknowledges Araujo's wrestling and grappling could be a factor but believes Grasso's scrambling and clinch work will be enough to win.

Angelo leans Cub Swanson, citing his experience, fight IQ, and still-solid chin. He notes that Jonathan Martinez has holes in his game, particularly handling pressure, and that Cub can exploit that in a technical kickboxing match. However, he is not highly confident and calls it a tough pick, acknowledging Martinez's power and recent wins.

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson for the upset by first-round knockout. He notes that Swanson has looked phenomenal lately, has power and volume, while Martinez has a questionable chin (knocked down multiple times). He thinks Swanson's pressure and hard shots will be too much, but says he'll check the weigh-ins to see if Swanson looks drained from the weight cut. He calls it a super close fight.

Cody leans Martinez for the pick but is more confident in the under 2.5 rounds at +130. He notes Cub Swanson still fights with hands down and chin up, and while he has power, Martinez is faster and more technical. He expects violence in a small cage and thinks the fight ends early.

Connor picks Martinez, citing the age and weight cut concerns for Swanson. He notes that Martinez's range kicking game could cause problems for Swanson, and that Swanson's tendency to struggle against range strikers is a factor. He admits it's a coin flip but goes with the younger, established bantamweight.

Swanson is a live underdog at +165 due to his unorthodox striking and power, which could expose Martinez's chin. Martinez is a good striker with kicks and combinations, but he has shown he can be hurt. Swanson's experience and ability to crack opponents make this competitive. However, the weight cut to 135 pounds is a concern; the host wants to see how Swanson looks at weigh-ins before committing. Prediction is Swanson by knockout.

Paul is tempted by Cub Swanson as a live underdog, especially since the fight is at bantamweight, a new weight class for Swanson. He questions Martinez's chin and weight cut issues, noting Martinez has been dropped before and struggled at 135. He thinks Swanson's power and pace could break Martinez if it becomes a scrap.

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over his favorite fighter Cub Swanson, citing momentum and Martinez's age (28) as key factors. He notes that Swanson is moving down to bantamweight, which often leads to poor performances initially. He praises Martinez's leg kicks and slick striking, and predicts a body finish due to Swanson's weaker torso at the new weight.

Zane picks Swanson, reasoning that if he would pick Swanson at featherweight, he has to still pick him at bantamweight despite the weight cut concerns. He believes Swanson's aggression and ability to punish Martinez's poor defense on the back foot will be key. He acknowledges the risk but trusts Swanson's veteran savvy.

Angelo picks Duško Todorović, believing he is the much better striker. He notes that Jordan Wright is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with big power but a karate style that can be exploited. He is confident in Duško but acknowledges that Jordan is always live and could push a wrestling-heavy game plan, as Duško has 50% takedown defense.

Big Brady picks Duško Todorović to win by first-round ground-and-pound finish. He notes that Jordan Wright is dangerous offensively but has terrible defense and chin, while Todorović has more paths to victory including takedowns and ground-and-pound. He expects Todorović to take the fight to the mat and dominate. He calls this his favorite fight on the card and mentions he has a bet on it.

Cody is very confident in the under 1.5 rounds, calling it his biggest bet in a while. He notes Jordan Wright has never been past 7.5 minutes in any fight, and Todorović has chin issues. He expects Todorović to take Wright down and finish him in the first round. He also likes the under as a standalone bet and in a parlay.

Connor picks Todorović, citing his love for fighting and aggression that will break Wright over time. He notes that Wright panics and gets exhausted, and Todorović's pressure will contribute to that. He acknowledges Todorović is very hittable but believes his durability and passion give him the edge in a longer fight.

Both fighters have power and suspect chins, making this a likely early finish. Todorović has poor striking defense, keeping his hands down, while Wright is explosive but fragile. The host leans Todorović to land the big strike first, but the under 1.5 rounds is the preferred play. Wright is a live underdog, and the fight is closer than the odds suggest.

Paul considers Jordan Wright as a PRP pick, noting Wright is a fast starter with decent power, as shown in his knockout of Jamie Pickett. He points out Todorović is hittable and has a questionable chin, and Wright could catch him early. However, he acknowledges Wright's own flaws and the under is the safer play.

The MMA Guru picks Jordan Wright as a juicy underdog, leaning towards him despite acknowledging his inconsistency. He notes that Wright has been training at Jackson Wink and is settling in. He believes Wright's size and reach advantage will allow him to manipulate the clinch and land knees to finish Todorović, calling it a 50/50 fight.

Zane picks Wright, acknowledging it's a coin flip. He notes that Wright hits very hard and has technical striking from his Anthony Hardonk disciple background, but his mentality is fragile. He thinks Wright's power could catch Todorović early, as Todorović is extremely hittable.

Angelo picks Victor Henry, citing his impressive UFC debut over Honey Barcelos where he landed 222 strikes and defended six takedowns. He notes that Assunção is on a four-fight losing streak and older, but warns that the line (3-to-1) is wide and that Honey Barcelos looked bad in that fight. He thinks Victor wins but cautions that the odds may be too high for a confident bet.

Big Brady confidently picks Victor Henry to win by decision. He notes that Assunção is 40, on a four-fight skid, and has very low volume, while Henry throws a ton of strikes (352 in his last fight). He believes Henry's pressure and output will overwhelm Assunção, and that Assunção's only path is wrestling, but Henry's takedown defense looked good against Barcelos. Brady sees a potential late finish but calls it a decision.

Cody picks Victor Henry confidently, citing his impressive performance against Ronnie Barcelos where he landed 180 significant strikes. He notes Henry has volume, wrestling, and has fought tough competition in Japan. He thinks Assunção is old, slow, and has declined, and Henry should win by decision or TKO.

Henry is younger and in his prime, while Assunção is 40 and on a four-fight losing streak, with three finishes. Henry's pressure and volume should overwhelm Assunção, who may have declined durability. Henry is not a big power puncher, so a decision is likely. The host recommends parlaying Henry or taking the decision prop at +120.

Paul is confident in Victor Henry, noting his extensive career in Japan with wins over multiple UFC veterans. He thinks Henry's volume and wrestling will be too much for Assunção, who is 40 years old and has been knocked out in his last two fights. He picks Henry by decision but notes a TKO is possible.

The MMA Guru picks Victor Henry as a no-brainer, citing his impressive short-notice win over Hani Barcelos. He notes that Assunção has shown a chin change after KO losses and may be hesitant. He believes Henry's pressure, size, and reach advantage will break Assunção over three rounds, winning by unanimous decision 30-27.

Angelo picks Alonzo Menifield, noting his power, takedown defense (83%), and improved cardio. He compares the fight to Johnny Walker vs. Jan Kuntalaba, where the grappler is dangerous but has only one win since 2019. Menifield can win by KO or decision, while Cirkunov likely needs a takedown to win, which may be difficult.

Big Brady picks Misha Cirkunov as a dog to win by first-round submission. He acknowledges Menifield's power and Cirkunov's weak chin, but believes Cirkunov's grappling is elite and that if he gets a takedown, he will finish Menifield quickly. He notes Menifield's ground game is unproven against high-level grapplers. He calls it a striker vs. grappler matchup and sides with the grappler.

Cody picks Menifield by knockout, but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Menifield has power but is a one-round fighter with cardio issues. He thinks Menifield lands a bomb early, but if the fight goes to the ground, Cirkunov has a submission advantage. He wants to see weigh-ins before betting.

Connor also picks Menifield, agreeing that Cirkunov is broken and cannot be trusted. He notes that Menifield can be convinced to quit if hurt, but Cirkunov lacks the dedication to his striking to hurt him. Cirkunov's return to light heavyweight after failing at middleweight only worsens his confidence.

Cirkunov is the more skilled fighter overall, with superior jiu-jitsu and good enough wrestling. His main vulnerability is Menifield's early power, but if he survives the first round, the fight shifts in his favor. Cirkunov is moving back to light heavyweight, which should improve his durability and cardio. The host likes Cirkunov by submission inside the distance or on the moneyline at +180.

Paul leans towards Cirkunov as a dog or passes. He notes Cirkunov has a legitimate path to victory via takedowns and submissions, as Menifield has never faced a pure jiu-jitsu guy. He questions Menifield's cardio and chin, and thinks Cirkunov could control him against the cage or submit him. He mentions Cirkunov by submission at +400.

The MMA Guru picks Alonzo Menifield by first-round KO, stating that Misha Cirkunov is done as a fighter. He notes Cirkunov's brain issues, lack of takedowns, and uncertainty about his weight class. He believes Menifield's power and underrated grappling defense will lead to a finish, though he doubts Menifield will ever be a top contender due to age.

Zane picks Menifield, stating he has to pick him because he cannot trust Cirkunov anymore. He notes Cirkunov's visible discomfort and PTSD-like reactions in fights, making him tense and slow. Menifield, while not a great striker, is durable and will be there in the second round, whereas Cirkunov's confidence is shattered.

Angelo picks Leomana Martinez, citing his cleaner technique, power, and heart shown in the Ronnie Lawrence fight. He notes that Brandon Davis has a wrestling advantage and took Giga Chikadze down three times, but Mana showed incredible resilience and never stops coming forward. He trusts Mana to fight for the win.

Big Brady picks Leomana Martinez to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Martinez's power (finished all regional wins in the first round, knocked out Ricky Turcios) and notes that Brandon Davis was knocked out in his last fight and has been hurt before. He believes Davis's takedown threat is minimal and that Martinez's power will be too much. He calls Martinez the more dangerous striker.

Cody picks Martinez but is not confident. He notes Martinez has huge power and a nasty left hook, and could knock Davis out. However, he acknowledges Davis is a volume puncher and could push the pace. He thinks Martinez might win by knockout but is not willing to bet heavily.

Martinez is the better striker with power, and his cardio has improved. Davis has suspect takedown defense and could be a live underdog if he gets the fight to the mat. However, Martinez's takedown defense is a concern; if he can keep it standing, he should win by knockout. The host is not betting the moneyline but likes Martinez inside the distance at +240.

Paul leans towards Davis as a dog, noting Davis has fought high-level competition and has a junkyard dog style. He thinks Davis can push the pace, score takedowns, and potentially win if he survives the first round. However, he is on the fence and might switch back to Martinez.

The MMA Guru picks Leomana Martinez, refusing to fall for Brandon Davis as an underdog. He criticizes Davis as hit-or-miss and notes his poor weight cut to 135. He believes Martinez will hold his own in grappling and win on the feet, catching an aggressive Davis and finishing by TKO in the first round.

Angelo leans Nick Maximov in a razor-thin matchup between two grapplers. He notes that Maximov has better wrestling and BJJ, and that the fight will likely be decided by grappling. He acknowledges Malkoun has raw power but is not the better wrestler. This is a close fight and Angelo is not highly confident.

Big Brady leans slightly toward Nick Maximov to win a close decision. He notes both fighters are similar wrestlers, but gives Maximov advantages in size (height, reach), cardio, and quality of wins (over Soriano and Brundage). He thinks Maximov is the better wrestler and will grind out a decision, but calls it a tricky fight to call.

Cody leans towards Malkoun as a slight underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes both are wrestlers, but Malkoun may have a slight edge in striking and willingness to engage. He thinks Malkoun's takedown ability against strong opponents like Alhassan and Dobson is impressive.

Both fighters are similar grapplers, but Malkoun's pressure and ability to scramble from bottom positions give him an edge. He never settles and uses butterfly hooks to get back to his feet or reverse. Maximov is a higher belt but Malkoun's relentless style should make it competitive. At plus money, the host sees value on Malkoun, expecting a close decision.

Paul also leans Malkoun, noting the fight is a toss-up. He thinks Malkoun's wrestling and strength could be the difference, and he is more willing to strike than Maximov. He calls it a dog or pass fight.

The MMA Guru picks Nick Maximov, believing he will out-hustle Jacob Malkoun in grappling. He notes that Maximov's loss to Andre Petroski was a choke, not damage, and that he has less pressure now. He trusts Maximov's jiu-jitsu to secure positional advantage and potentially find the back, while Malkoun lacks submission or KO power.

Cody picks Brito confidently, noting he is a powerhouse and coming off a career-best win. He points out that Alexander has missed weight multiple times and is taking the fight on short notice, which could affect his performance. He expects Brito to press forward and score takedowns.

Paul also picks Brito, noting he is a solid prospect and Alexander is a late replacement with questionable credentials. He thinks Brito's aggression and takedowns will be too much, and Alexander may struggle to make weight.

The MMA Guru picks Joanderson Brito by first-round KO, citing his full camp and the short-notice replacement Lucas Alexander. He believes Alexander will be overly aggressive early, which will be his downfall against Brito. He notes that Brito's win over Andre Fili has aged well, and he trusts Brito's power and timing.

Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez, believing she is the more talented fighter with a higher ceiling. He notes that Sam Hughes has evolved into a grappler and needs takedowns to win, but Piera has good takedown defense and inflicts damage in scrambles. He calls it a no-bet situation because Sam is live, but he might bet Sam Hughes by decision (+3.5 points) if the odds drop.

Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision. He highlights Rodríguez's improved grappling and powerful striking, and notes that Sam Hughes has poor striking defense and takedown defense. He believes Rodríguez is a bad stylistic matchup for Hughes, who relies on grinding but will struggle to get takedowns. Brady expects a competitive fight but sees Rodríguez winning clearly on the feet and possibly with takedowns.

Cody picks Rodríguez, citing her striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Hughes has been winning with wrestling against weak opposition, but Rodríguez should be able to keep the fight standing and out-strike her. He is hesitant due to Rodríguez's cardio concerns.

Rodríguez is the better striker with power and leg kicks, and her wrestling is on par with Hughes. Hughes relies on pressure and wrestling, but Rodríguez should be able to stuff takedowns and win the striking exchanges. The host expects a decision win for Rodríguez and likes the decision prop at +105. However, the odds are slightly wide, and Hughes could be live.

Paul picks Rodríguez but is hesitant. He notes Rodríguez has good takedown defense and a striking advantage, but her cardio and ground game are question marks. He thinks Hughes could tire her out with wrestling, but ultimately Rodríguez should win.

The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez, noting her undefeated record and experience in main events. He believes she has too much power for Sam Hughes and will drop her in the first round, lose the second, and win the third on pace. He predicts a 29-28 decision, citing Rodríguez's sting in her shots and ability to withstand pressure.

Angelo picks C.J. Vergara as an underdog, noting that he has takedown defense, pressure, and is a dangerous striker. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds favoring Taira, as Vergara only has one close loss in the UFC. Angelo likes Vergara's chances and placed a half-unit bet at +205 (now +200). He acknowledges some nervousness about backing an underdog at these odds but is confident in his pick.

Big Brady leans toward Tatsuro Taira to win by submission in the second round. He praises Taira's elite grappling and back-takes, but has concerns about his low striking volume and wrestling. He notes that Vergara throws high volume and could win if the fight stays on the feet. Brady says he's not touching the -240 price but picks Taira to get a takedown and finish with his ground game.

Cody picks Taira by submission, noting his slick grappling and ability to take the back. He points out Vergara exposes his back when getting up and makes mistakes. He likes the submission prop at +350 and thinks Taira will find a finish.

Taira has a similar striking style to Odie Osborne, using length and kicks, but mixes in solid jiu-jitsu and back takes. Vergara is tough and has pressure, but Taira should control the distance and find takedowns. The host is not fully sold on Taira's potential at -230 but expects him to win by decision. He likes Taira but not enough to bet the moneyline.

Paul picks Taira, expecting him to take Vergara's back and control him. He compares Taira's grappling to Ryan Hall or Aljamain Sterling, noting his ability to body triangle and neutralize opponents. He thinks Taira will dominate but is unsure if he will submit or just control.

The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira, believing he has overcome debut jitters and will make significant improvements as a 22-year-old. He notes that CJ Vergara is underrated but gives up positional control and leaves openings in scrambles. He predicts Taira will find the back and choke out Vergara in the second round via rear-naked choke.

Angelo picks Pete Rodriguez to win, noting that Pete is a young, powerful brawler on the upswing. However, he is concerned about the wide odds (7-to-1 favorite) and warns against including him in parlays. He points out that Mike Jackson is a more technical striker with a good jab, and that Pete struggled against a technical striker in his last fight. Angelo believes Pete will win but the odds are too wide to bet.

Big Brady picks Pete Rodriguez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Rodriguez is young (25) with power, while Mike Jackson is 37 and not UFC caliber, with his only win by DQ. Brady expects Rodriguez to push Jackson against the cage and land a combination to finish him early. He calls this a low-level fight that probably shouldn't be bet on.

Cody is confident in the under 1.5 rounds, having parlayed it with the Todorović/Wright under. He notes Rodriguez is a first-round finisher with all wins coming in the first round, and Jackson is not a legitimate fighter. He thinks Rodriguez will knock Jackson out early.

Rodriguez has power and all his wins are first-round finishes, but he is limited and untested past round one. Jackson is raw but durable and could outlast Rodriguez if he survives the initial onslaught. The host is not comfortable with the -675 moneyline but likes Rodriguez to win in round one via prop. The under 1.5 rounds is too juiced at -240.

Paul is hesitant to bet Rodriguez at -750, noting Rodriguez has never been past the first round and could gas if he doesn't finish early. He compares to Dean Berry, who also gassed against Jackson. He thinks the under is likely but not a lock.

The MMA Guru picks Pete Rodriguez despite being torn, citing Rodriguez's well-roundedness, power, and commitment to the game. He notes that Mike Jackson is not terrible and could win, but trusts Rodriguez to come back with vengeance after a KO loss and nine months off. He predicts a first-round finish but criticizes the 7-to-1 odds, suggesting a bet on Jackson as a value play.