UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen

Angelo picks Sandhagen because he is younger, durable, and has a versatile striking style with sneaky power. He notes that Vera's recent wins came against older, declining fighters like Rob Font, Dominic Cruz, and Frankie Edgar, and that Sandhagen is a different challenge. He believes Sandhagen's weird movements and toughness will neutralize Vera's power, and that Vera's habit of losing early before finding a finish won't work against Sandhagen. He admits he has never correctly picked a Vera fight but thinks this is where Vera's luck runs out.

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera as a dog, arguing that while Sandhagen is the better overall fighter with more volume and movement, Vera is a 'moment winner' who can land big shots and sway judges. He notes Vera's ability to get outstruck but still win rounds by landing damaging blows, as seen in the Rob Font fight. Brady believes Vera has 25 minutes to find Sandhagen's chin and predicts a fourth-round knockout, though he acknowledges a close decision is possible.

Cody picks Sandhagen based on pure volume and fast starting ability. He notes Sandhagen lands a high number of significant strikes (169 vs Yanez, 128 vs Dillashaw) and that Vera is a slow starter who often drops the first round. He believes Sandhagen will bank the early rounds and win a decision, though he acknowledges Vera's durability and late-round finishing ability. He suggests betting Sandhagen by decision to improve the line.

Connor sees Sandhagen as a heavily upgraded version of the opponents Vera has been beating (Rob Font, Dominick Cruz). He believes Sandhagen's durability, conditioning, adaptability, and elusive defense will be too much for Vera's 'anti-process' style. He compares it to Yoel Romero vs Robert Whittaker, suggesting Sandhagen is Vera's Whittaker.

Jacob picks Vera, noting that he was a former hater but converted after Vera beat Rob Font. He argues that Vera is excellent at making reads over time and capitalizing, and that Sandhagen is hittable because he stands in front of opponents and doesn't move his head. He thinks Sandhagen's toughness means he gets hit, and Vera's power at bantamweight is a serious threat. He predicts Vera will find a shot and finish Sandhagen, possibly by submission in the third round.

The host believes Sandhagen is the best puzzle for Vera since his winning streak, citing Sandhagen's ability to keep up with Vera's cardio and put together a full MMA game. He notes Sandhagen is defensively responsible enough to avoid big strikes and can tie Vera up in the clinch if needed. He expects Sandhagen to get off his own game from distance and allow the judges to see it in his favor, predicting Sandhagen wins by decision despite possibly dropping a round or two.

The Guru picks Sandhagen over Vera, arguing that Sandhagen is much better than Vera's recent opponents like Cruz and Font. He highlights Sandhagen's diverse attack (leg kicks, body shots, takedowns) and toughness, believing he can avoid Vera's power and win a decision. He notes Vera's ability to find finishes but thinks Sandhagen's movement and durability will carry him.

Zane picks Sandhagen because Vera is scary but has recent losses to Jose Aldo and Song Yadong. He notes Sandhagen is harder to track and predict than Font or Cruz, and Vera's clinch wrestling is less of a threat than Dillashaw's. He expects Sandhagen to be elusive enough to win, though Vera could steal rounds with damage.

Angelo is very confident in Holm, calling her one of his two most confident picks on the card. He notes that Holm is a technical striker with great footwork and that her age (41) matters less because she doesn't rely on speed or take much damage. He points out that Santos lacks power, which plays into Holm's style, and that Santos is coming off a two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Holm should dominate and that the line should be wider, but he is wary of betting women's MMA due to past upsets.

Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with low confidence, citing red flags on both sides. He notes Holm's age (41) and decline in her last fight against Ketlen Vieira, as well as a layoff. On Santos' side, she just had a baby and got married, which Brady views as potential distractions. He expects Holm to win by holding Santos against the cage for three rounds in a boring decision, but calls the fight a 'big pass' for betting.

Cody picks Holly Holm but is hesitant due to her age and potential decline. He notes Holm has shifted to a wrestling-heavy game plan and is effective in the clinch. He believes Holm should win but doesn't like the -250 moneyline, preferring Holm by decision at -115. He acknowledges the Pat Mayo theory of betting women's underdogs but still leans Holm. He mentions Holm's durability and Santos coming off a KO loss.

Connor picks Holm because Santos is fragile and tends to revert to clinching when pressured, which plays into Holm's strength. He notes Holm's striking has slowed but she remains strong in the clinch and hard to hurt. He expects Holm to hold Santos on the fence for three rounds and win a decision.

Jacob also picks Holm, agreeing she is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Holm is not a finisher and the fight likely goes to decision, which could be risky with Texas judges. He mentions that Santos might be aggressive and that the optics could favor her if she pressures, but he thinks Holm should dominate. He says he found plus money on Holm and has a bet on her, but does not specify the exact prop.

The host expects another veteran performance from Holly Holm, believing she will grind against Yana Santos against the cage, utilize her superior strength and power, drag the fight to the ground, and do good work from top position. He notes that Santos is coming off a layoff after having a baby, which adds uncertainty. He thinks Holm's physical fitness and longevity are exceptional for her age, and that strength advantage will be key. He predicts Holm wins by decision.

The Guru picks Holm, citing her recent wins over Aldana and Pennington, and notes that Santos hasn't fought since 2021 and had a child. He expects Holm to use her athleticism and cage control to win a decision, though he admits it's a sad prediction.

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Holm's clinch strength hasn't decayed and Santos lacks confidence to avoid a Holm fight. He doubts Santos can win unless she proves she can overcome Holm's physicality. He sees it as a fight where Holm's strength and clinch work will be decisive.

Angelo picks Landwehr but is hesitant, citing concerns about Lingo's short-notice weight cut. He notes that Landwehr is high-pressure and gritty, but that Lingo hits hard and has good takedown defense. He thinks Landwehr's pace and grappling will be key, but acknowledges Lingo is much better than the odds suggest. He says he is not betting on this fight because the odds are unappealing.

Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr by submission, noting that Landwehr has a sneaky submission game and can mix in takedowns. He acknowledges Lingo's power and early danger but believes Landwehr's cardio and pressure will break Lingo as the fight goes on. Brady points out that Lingo has been taken down easily on the regional scene and expects Landwehr to capitalize late, predicting a third-round submission.

Cody picks Landwehr despite the -225 price, citing his relentless pressure, cardio, and ability to break opponents. He notes Landwehr is a slow starter but comes on strong, and that Lingo is a one-dimensional boxer with no takedown defense. He acknowledges the risk of Landwehr getting KO'd due to his reckless style but believes Lingo won't get a quick finish. He expects Landwehr to back Lingo up and break him down.

Connor picks Landwehr despite acknowledging Lingo has a puncher's chance. He notes Landwehr is a better athlete and super tough, but his brawling style will give Lingo opportunities. He thinks Landwehr's physicality and willingness to brawl will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and slow him down.

Jacob picks Landwehr but is not confident, noting that Landwehr is the better fighter but often fights recklessly for entertainment. He points out that Landwehr almost got knocked out in his last fight and that Lingo is dangerous. He says the fight is a coin flip if Landwehr chooses to stand and trade. He might throw a small bet on Lingo as an underdog depending on weigh-ins.

The host is surprised to see Lingo as such a big underdog, believing his boxing style is perfect to counter Landwehr's wild striking. He thinks Lingo's power and countering opportunities will lead to a knockout. He notes Lingo trains at Fortis MMA and has good durability. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and Lingo by knockout.

The Guru picks Landwehr, praising his toughness and clinch work. He notes that Lingo's finishing ability has dropped against better competition, while Landwehr has beaten solid fighters like Elkins and Klein. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Landwehr.

Zane picks Landwehr because Lingo has thrived against opponents who didn't want to brawl, but Landwehr will meet him head-on with pressure. He believes Landwehr's better athleticism and willingness to be the bully will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and take away his brawling ability.

Angelo picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, arguing that Barber is overrated and a decision fighter who can break mentally. He notes that Lee is a technical striker with improved grappling and has fought tougher competition. He believes Lee can keep the fight standing and out-strike Barber, and that Barber's takedowns may not be enough. He says no bet on this fight due to unknowns.

Big Brady picks Andrea Lee as a dog, believing the fight will be closer than the odds indicate. He thinks Lee is the better striker with more volume, while Barber relies on physical strength and takedowns. Brady notes Barber's striking is still a work in progress and that Lee can work back to her feet if taken down. He predicts a split decision win for Lee, possibly a robbery, and expects the fight to go the distance.

Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup, noting Barber's youth and cardio advantage but also her lack of takedowns in recent fights. He sees a path for Lee if she can keep the fight standing and outstrike Barber, but he is wary of Lee's tendency to fatigue. He ultimately says he wants nothing to do with the line, finding it too wide.

Connor picks Barber because Lee has a history of crumbling under pressure and bullying. He notes Barber's recent assertiveness and willingness to clinch and use her strength. He acknowledges Barber's poor kickboxing but thinks she will force a clinch-heavy fight where Lee fades.

Jacob picks Barber but admits he is biased against Lee. He thinks Barber can get takedowns and wear Lee down, similar to how Viviane Araujo did. He warns that Barber is a decision fighter and should not be put in parlays. He acknowledges Lee is dangerous on the feet and that Barber's takedowns are key.

The host believes Barber's strength and grappling improvements at Team Alpha Male will be key. He expects Barber to assert herself early, counter Lee's combinations, and eventually get clinch situations where she can rough Lee up against the cage. He notes that if Lee gets into a flow state it could be trouble, but Barber's power and explosiveness should deter her. He predicts Barber wins by decision.

The Guru picks Barber, citing her improved grappling and youth (24 vs 34). He thinks Barber can take Lee down and slow her down as the fight progresses, winning the last two rounds via decision. He notes Lee's tendency to fade when wrestled.

Zane picks Barber but notes it could easily be a fight where Barber flops around and Lee jabs her. He highlights Barber's physicality and willingness to make opponents deal with her strength. He also notes Barber's reliable third-round surge if things aren't going well.

Angelo picks Njokuani, citing his striking power, speed, and solid takedown defense. He notes that Duraev is a takedown machine but not relentless, and that Njokuani can find the chin if Duraev gives him time. He mentions that Njokuani showed good takedown defense and adversity management in his last fight. He is interested in a takedown prop bet for Duraev but thinks Njokuani wins.

Big Brady picks Chidi Njokuani by first-round knockout, citing his size advantage (height and reach) and power. He notes Duraev's chinny history (all four losses by KO) and questions his wrestling ability. Brady believes if Duraev doesn't get a takedown in the first round, he gets knocked out. He acknowledges Njokuani's past cardio and quit issues but thinks he finishes early.

Cody picks Njokuani, noting his improved grappling and BJJ black belt, which makes him a dual threat. He believes Duraev will struggle to get takedowns and will tire as the fight goes on, allowing Njokuani to take over in rounds 2 and 3. He mentions Njokuani's height advantage and durability. He also likes the over 1.5 rounds regardless of winner.

Connor picks Njokuani because Duraev's striking is a mess and he likes to strike, which plays into Njokuani's dangerous counter-striking. He notes Duraev's takedowns are often from too far out and he gets hit. He thinks Njokuani's athleticism and kill-shot mentality will prevail, though Duraev could grind out a win.

Jacob also picks Njokuani, noting his strong takedown defense and ability to work through adversity. He thinks Duraev may not be as relentless as needed and that Njokuani will stuff takedowns early and find a knockout. He mentions that Njokuani is a big guy who can overpower in scrambles.

The host is hesitant to take chalk on Njokuani but ultimately picks him by knockout. He notes Njokuani's improving takedown defense and superior striking, but acknowledges Duraev's grappling threat. He thinks the fight likely ends inside the distance, with Njokuani finding an opening in the striking realm. He also mentions 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a good prop.

The Guru picks Njokuani, citing his power, takedown defense, and experience. He criticizes Duraev's chin and inability to implement his grappling. He predicts a first-round KO via knee after stuffing a takedown.

Zane picks Njokuani because Duraev is slow and gets hit easily. He notes Duraev's striking is awkward and he doesn't react quickly, while Njokuani is dangerous with reactive strikes. He thinks Njokuani will get chances to hurt Duraev and finish, though Duraev could get top control.

Angelo picks Lutz, expecting him to weather Pineda's early storm and then take over with wrestling. He notes that Pineda is feast-or-famine with a 100% finish rate but fades quickly. He thinks Lutz is powerful and should get takedowns and a finish. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go the distance' rather than a moneyline.

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz by third-round TKO, viewing it as a fade on Daniel Pineda. He notes Pineda's age (37), history of PED use, and tendency to gas out after the first round. Brady believes Lutz's grinding style and pace will wear down Pineda, who has never won a 15-minute fight. He expects Lutz to survive the early danger and finish Pineda late.

Cody picks Lutz confidently, calling Pineda a one-round fighter with poor cardio and a history of fading. He notes Pineda is 37, off a two-year layoff, and was previously caught for steroids. He believes Lutz's takedown defense and volume striking will neutralize Pineda's early grappling threat, and that Lutz will break Pineda down over three rounds.

Connor leans toward Tucker Lutz but expresses hesitation, noting that Lutz hasn't faced a fighter as violent and unpredictable as Daniel Pineda. He points out that Pineda has crushed young prospects before and that Lutz's recent UFC wins have been decisions against less dangerous opponents. Connor is curious to see how Lutz handles Pineda's calf kicks and chaotic pressure, and he wouldn't be super confident in Lutz passing this test just yet.

Jacob picks Lutz but is not confident, echoing that Lutz should win but the fight is not worth betting. He notes that Pineda is tough and wild, and that Lutz was out-grappled by Sabatini, but that is not a concern. He says the breakdowns are repetitive because many favorites on this card are similar.

The host leans with the younger, faster, more explosive Tucker Lutz, expecting him to come back with vengeance after his first UFC loss. He thinks Lutz's combination striking, speed, and explosiveness will find Pineda's chin and put him away via ground and pound. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as Pineda's fights almost always finish inside the distance.

The Guru picks Lutz, noting Pineda's gas tank issues and tendency to fade after the first round. He believes Lutz's durability and cardio will allow him to win the last two rounds via decision, despite a tough first round.

Zane picks Tucker Lutz because he sees Lutz as a solid, reliable fighter who is difficult to finish and has a safe, counter-punching style that should outlast Daniel Pineda's wild aggression. He notes that Pineda is prone to self-destructing and fading as the fight goes on, while Lutz has the durability and technical boxing to stay out of harm's way and accumulate points. Zane also mentions that Lutz's style is similar to Cody Stamann's, which has proven effective against aggressive but less technical opponents.

Angelo picks Peterson, citing his toughness and relentless pressure. He notes that Peterson is never the more skilled fighter but makes up for it with grit. He thinks Peterson will frustrate Alexander, who may not handle the constant forward pressure. However, he says he cannot trust Peterson with his money because he puts himself in danger and could get caught.

Big Brady picks Steven Peterson by submission, calling it a sneaky way to attack the fight. He notes Peterson's ability to get takedowns and his submission skills (42% of wins by sub), though he hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC. Brady thinks Peterson has more ways to win, especially if he gets the fight to the mat, and predicts a third-round submission. He acknowledges Alexander's striking advantage on the feet but favors Peterson's toughness and experience.

Cody leans towards Alexander as a dog, citing his kickboxing advantage and physicality. He notes Peterson is a forward-pressure fighter but not high-level, and that Alexander could have more time to work in his comfort zone. He expects a close, possibly split decision, and sees value in the plus money.

Connor also picks Steven Peterson, agreeing with Zane that Alexander is too inexperienced to handle Peterson's relentless pressure. He notes that Peterson's technical flaws don't matter if he just keeps coming, and that Alexander has shown he can be cornered and flustered. Connor says he would not be shocked if Alexander wins by landing a big shot, but he sees Peterson as the more reliable pick given Alexander's rawness.

Jacob picks Peterson but is not confident, noting that Peterson's toughness is his main attribute. He thinks Peterson should out-tough Alexander but that Alexander is dangerous and could land a big shot. He says there are better places to put money on this card.

The host is surprised to see Alexander as an underdog, believing his speed, slick striking, and calf kicking game will be too much for Peterson. He notes Alexander's performance against Jacob Kilburn showed he can pick apart a similar gritty opponent. He expects Alexander to win by decision, as Peterson is tough to put away.

The Guru picks Peterson, calling it a lock. He criticizes Alexander's lack of finishing ability and poor performance against Britto. He highlights Peterson's durability (only finished once in 2013) and expects a dominant decision win.

Zane picks Steven Peterson because he sees Lucas Alexander as a raw, undercooked fighter who lacks fight management and is easily overwhelmed by relentless pressure. Peterson is insanely durable and aggressive, and Zane believes his veteran pace and toughness will be too much for Alexander, who has shown he can be backed up and flustered. Zane notes that if Alexander wins, it would prove something he hasn't seen yet, whereas a Peterson win would just be expected.

Angelo picks Parsons, noting his slick grappling and the fact that he showed he can go three rounds in his last fight. He thinks Giles is overrated due to the Roman Dolidze win, which he argues Dolidze actually won. He believes Parsons will get the wrestling going and win, possibly inside the distance. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Parsons at -105.

Big Brady picks Preston Parsons by submission in the second round. He questions Trevin Giles' fight IQ, durability, and volume, noting that Giles has been finished in all four losses. Brady believes Parsons' pressure and cardio will break Giles, and that Giles' weight cut to 170 will hurt his gas tank. He expects Parsons to mix takedowns, get on top, and secure a submission.

Cody picks Parsons, citing Giles' inconsistency, low output, and recent durability issues. He notes Parsons is younger, improving, and has solid wrestling. He worries about Texas judging but believes Parsons can edge out a decision or get a takedown. He calls it a 50/50 fight but leans Parsons.

Connor initially hesitates but ultimately sides with Zane's pick of Preston Parsons. He acknowledges that Parsons will eat a lot of straight punches early and that Giles is fast and a good straight puncher, but he doesn't trust Giles's application of his tools or his defensive absence at welterweight. Connor notes that Giles looked okay against Louis Cosce but not great, and he believes Parsons's physical pressure will be enough to exploit Giles's weaknesses.

Jacob also picks Parsons, agreeing that Giles is a good boxer but does not use his jab enough and struggles with pressure. He thinks Parsons will get in Giles' face, disrupt his striking, and win inside the distance. He says he is 'pressing Parsons all the way'.

The host likes Parsons' relentless grappling style and believes he can push a pace that Giles may not handle at welterweight. He notes Parsons showed good cardio in his last fight, and expects him to find a finish from top dominant position. He has questions about Giles' energy levels and weight cut.

The Guru picks Giles, citing his experience and athleticism. He notes that Parsons hasn't fought since his debut and lacks a standout skill. He expects Giles to win by decision, using his physicality and technique.

Zane picks Preston Parsons because he believes Trevin Giles's athletic advantages are less pronounced at welterweight and his defensive flaws are more exploitable. Giles backs up with his hands down and is prone to getting hurt, while Parsons is a pressuring bully who will walk through shots and wear Giles down. Zane notes that Giles has not knocked anyone out since 2017 and tends to gas when having success, making him vulnerable to Parsons's relentless pressure.

Angelo is very confident in Vergara, calling him one of his most confident picks. He notes that Vergara is a high-pressure fighter who stays busy and is tough. He thinks da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's pressure will be too much. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' rather than a moneyline.

Big Brady picks C.J. Vergara by first-round knockout, calling Daniel da Silva not UFC caliber. He notes da Silva's poor cardio (2.5 minutes of gas), lack of durability, and tendency to fold under adversity. Brady believes Vergara's pressure and toughness will overwhelm da Silva, who has been finished in all three UFC losses. He expects a quick finish as soon as da Silva faces any adversity.

Cody picks Vergara, calling the line bad and favoring Vergara's heart and cardio. He notes da Silva is explosive but fades after the first round, while Vergara is tenacious and breaks opponents down. He suggests Vergara inside the distance and likes the over 1.5 rounds on PrizePicks (over 5 minutes).

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Vergara without hesitation. He describes Lacerda as a 'flyweight Eric Silva' who is dangerous in the first minute but then falls apart. Vergara is a proven tough guy who hangs around and doesn't get blown out, making him a reliable pick against a fighter with no regulation or longevity in his style.

Jacob picks Vergara, agreeing that he should win with toughness. He notes that da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's toughness should carry him. However, he feels da Silva is 'due' for a win and might pull off an upset, but still picks Vergara.

The host picks Daniel da Silva as a big underdog, believing his speed, explosiveness, and power advantage will be too much for Vergara. He notes da Silva is fighting for his job and expects a calculated but reckless style. He predicts a first-round finish, possibly by submission, and likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and under 1.5 rounds.

The Guru picks Vergara, heavily criticizing da Silva's fight IQ and defensive mistakes. He believes Vergara is more reliable and can tough out danger. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

Zane picks C.J. Vergara because he sees Daniel Lacerda as a self-destructive fighter who explodes and fades quickly, while Vergara is tough, reliable, and consistently puts forward pressure. Vergara may be slow and not athletic, but he is durable and will be in Lacerda's face the whole time. Zane notes that Lacerda has imploded in every UFC fight so far, and Vergara is exactly the kind of grinder who can survive the initial storm and take over.

Angelo picks Altamirano, citing his speed, power, and patience. He notes that Salvador is a high-volume striker with poor defense, and that Altamirano can work in offensive wrestling. He thinks Altamirano is more of a dog and will come forward, hit less, and use grappling to win.

Big Brady picks Vinicius Salvador by first-round knockout, citing his power and 100% finish rate. He notes Salvador's improvements since his Contender Series appearance, where he looked much better against Shannon Ross. Brady acknowledges Altamirano's grappling threat but believes Salvador's dangerous striking will prevail early. He calls it a close fight but favors Salvador's explosiveness.

Cody leans Salvador, citing his power, speed, and striking accuracy. He notes Altamirano is hittable and has cardio but may be outgunned. He worries about Salvador's cardio and takedown defense but thinks Salvador can land a KO early. He calls it a 50/50 fight and suggests a live bet on Altamirano if Salvador doesn't finish early.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Salvador. He describes Altamorano as a very awkward, hittable fighter with a weird style that won't survive against most flyweights. Salvador looks like a real flyweight with potency, while Altamorano is a not-very-athletic guy who has put in weird work. Connor thinks Salvador will maintain the pocket and find Altamorano right in front of him, unable to throw power shots back.

Jacob picks Salvador, noting his power, volume, and confidence. He thinks Altamirano will brawl, which plays into Salvador's hands. He warns that Altamirano needs to get takedowns early, but if he doesn't, he is in trouble. He believes Salvador is longer and quicker and will get the job done.

The host leans with Salvador, believing his technical defense is slightly better and he will land unorthodox strikes. He likes the over 1.5 rounds prop, expecting both fighters to throw a lot but not land finishing power early. He predicts Salvador wins by decision.

The Guru picks Salvador, citing his youth and finishing potential. He notes that Altamirano has been dropped before and that Salvador's power could be decisive. He acknowledges it's a close fight but trusts Salvador's ability to bounce back if hurt.

Zane picks Vinicius Salvador because he believes Altamorano's awkward, off-balance style lacks punching power and will be easily exploited by Salvador's pocket boxing. Salvador is willing to eat shots to stay in range and throw wide hooks, while Altamorano struggles to deliver hard strikes from his stance. Zane notes that Altamorano's win over Daniel Lacerda was more an indictment of Lacerda's lack of longevity than a sign of Altamorano's quality.