Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

May 16, 2026 Meta Apex Enterprise, Nevada, United States
Arnold Allen

Arnold Allen W

20-4
DEC R5 5:00
Fight 1 VS Featherweight Completed

Arnold Allen

Moneyline
Betfair Exchange -122
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 5.21
Submission
BetRivers +1600
Decision
Cloudbet 3.30

Melquizael Costa

Moneyline
Caesars +155
KO/TKO
BetWay +700
Submission
BetWay +700
Decision
FanDuel +360
Fighter Stats

Arnold Allen

Age32
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Melquizael Costa

Age29
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Arnold Allen

3.47SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.04SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.86TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Melquizael Costa

4.38SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
2.97SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
2.0TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Angelo picks Arnold Allen, believing he is cleaner, faster, and more experienced. He is not worried about Costa's grappling and thinks Allen will control the striking. He notes Costa has random power but sees no reason Allen is chinny. He expects Allen to be a step ahead.

"Arnold Allen is the pick. ... I think Arnold Allen is cleaner. I think he's faster. He certainly has more experience."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Big Brady picks Arnold Allen despite not being a fan, citing the five-round distance as key. He expects Costa to fade in later rounds, as seen in his previous fights. He predicts a decision win for Allen, noting that if it were three rounds, he might pick Costa.

"I like Allen here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Cody leans toward Arnold Allen due to his experience in five-round fights and higher level of competition, despite a 1-3 record in his last four. He notes Allen's ability to win rounds against elite fighters like Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev, and expects his cardio to be an advantage as the fight progresses. However, he is hesitant to bet the current -155 line and prefers to play Allen in the live market if he loses early rounds. He acknowledges Melquizael Costa's recent knockout power and higher volume, but worries about Costa's cardio in a five-round fight.

Would rather bet Arnold Allen in the live market if he loses the first round; expects a 48-47 decision.
"I'd rather just bet Arnold Allen in the live market instead of betting minus 155 right now."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Arnold Allen

Costa is more technical and dynamic on the feet, but may fade in later rounds. Allen is tough, durable, and has good cardio. If Costa's gas tank holds, he wins; if not, Allen takes over. Lean Allen but not betting.

Costa +5.5 is interesting but odds too short.
"My lean is Arnold Allen, but I wouldn't bet him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Lucrative James picks Arnold Allen to win, citing Allen's superior five-round experience, size, and ability to close distance against kickers like Costa. He believes Costa's recent knockout streak is not repeatable and that Allen's losses to elite fighters (Max Holloway, Movsar Evloev, Jean Silva) were competitive. He also notes Allen's grappling advantage and the small cage benefiting Allen's pressure style.

"I think Arnold Allen is going to win the fight. I trust Arnold Allen a little bit more with his five round experience."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

The host picks Arnold Allen but is hesitant due to the chalky odds. He expects Allen to land more significant damage, but acknowledges Costa's volume and aggression could cause issues. He believes Allen's veteran savvy and five-round experience will lead to a decision win.

"It's hard for me to fully trust Allen, especially at chalky odds here, but I expect him to land more a significant damage. Although the volume and aggression of Costa could potentially cause Allen some issues, I believe …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

The host leans with the veteran Allen due to his experience and ability to potentially exploit Costa's aggressive style, especially in a five-round fight. However, he is not confident enough to bet Allen at -180, as he has never been high on Allen. He predicts Allen wins by decision and might consider the over.

over (implied)
"I find myself leaning with the veteran though. I find myself leaning with Allen. I I just feel like he's his experience."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul is not passionate about the main event but leans toward Melquizael Costa if forced to make a play. He notes that Costa has been on a good run and that Arnold Allen has never been knocked down in the UFC, but Costa seems to be putting it together. He is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will focus on live markets instead.

"If I was forced to make a play, I'd probably click Costa."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jan 31, 2023 (1201 days before fight)
No clear pick

The host leans towards Max Holloway because the fight is five rounds, which favors Holloway's cardio and experience. He notes that Arnold Allen tends to break his hand and slow down in later rounds, as seen in the Sadiq Yusuf fight. He believes Allen will win the first two rounds but fade, allowing Holloway to potentially finish in rounds 4 or 5. He also mentions Holloway's durability and volume punching.

"I am leaning towards Max Holloway winning this fight as it goes on maybe getting a finish in the later rounds"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Dooho Choi

Dooho Choi W

16-4-1
KO/TKO R2 4:29
Fight 2 VS Featherweight Completed

Dooho Choi

Moneyline
Caesars +160
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 5.38
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
BetRivers +600

Daniel Santos

Moneyline
Caesars -125
KO/TKO
BetRivers +330
Submission
Cloudbet 8.52
Decision
FanDuel +280
Fighter Stats

Dooho Choi

Age35
Height5' 10"
Reach70"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Daniel Santos

Age31
Height5' 7"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Dooho Choi

4.67SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
4.02SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
1.43TD Avg
53.0%TD Acc.
47.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Daniel Santos

4.76SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
5.03SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
3.01TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Santos

Angelo picks Daniel Santos, calling it the toughest pick on the card. He notes Choi looked great in his last fight but attributes that to an old opponent. He trusts Santos to stay dangerous late and create scrambles. He expects a close fight with Santos winning.

"Daniel Santos is going to be the pick. But honestly, in my opinion, this might be the toughest pick on the card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Santos

Big Brady leans toward Daniel Santos, citing his durability and youth. He expects a war and favors the younger, more durable fighter. He predicts a decision win, though he is not thrilled with the price.

"I'm leaning Santos here just because he's the younger guy."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Santos

Cody picks Daniel Santos, citing his physical strength, pressure, and ability to mix takedowns with striking. He notes that Santos has been active and improving, while Dooho Choi has been inactive and has shown vulnerability to wrestlers like Kyle Nelson. He believes Santos can pressure Choi, land heavy blows, and use takedowns to neutralize him, especially as Choi is not physically strong and has been rocked before.

"I feel like Santos can pressure in and land those big heavy blows, but also shoot the takedowns, neutralize this guy, out muscle him a little bit."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Daniel Santos

Both are aggressive with poor defense. Santos is more durable and throws higher volume, while Choi has more power. Lean Santos due to durability, but odds are fair. Under 2.5 rounds is interesting.

Under 2.5 rounds or fight not to go to decision at 1.55 is tempting.
"My lean would be Santos just based on durability."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Santos

Lucrative James picks Daniel Santos, favoring his relentless pace, takedown volume, and durability over Dooho Choi. He notes Santos's improvement at featherweight and Choi's defensive vulnerabilities. He predicts a decision win for Santos, though acknowledges a knockout is possible.

"I have to pick Daniel Santos here. I think at 35 years old, we've seen what we're ever going to see for the Korean Super Bowl."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dooho Choi

The host picks Doo Ho Choi over Daniel Santos, expecting Choi to use his grappling defensively and outstrike Santos. He notes that Santos will likely look to grapple, but if Choi's durability holds up, he will put together a better body of work to win on the scorecards.

"Look for Choi to utilize his grappling defensively, as Santos will likely look to get to that here. As long as Choi's durability holds up, I expect him to go out there and outstrike Santos, maybe even get …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dooho Choi

The host is surprised the line has moved in Santos' favor, as he believes Choi is the better striker with improved grappling and a size advantage. He expects Choi to outpoint Santos over three rounds, winning by decision. He may look to bet Choi at the current plus money.

"I think Troy should win the majority of this fight and I think he'll point Santos on route to a decision win."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Santos

Paul is confident in Daniel Santos, having parlayed him earlier in the week at -143. He likes Santos's activity and wrestling, and believes he can lean on that to get out of tight situations. He notes that Dooho Choi is too inactive and that Santos has been his guy since entering the UFC.

Parlayed Santos with Nicolle Caliari at -143.
"I got Wyat. I threw him into a parlay a little bit earlier in the week when he was like minus 143."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 3 VS Bantamweight Completed
Juan Díaz

Juan Díaz W

15-1-1
SUB R2 4:08

Malcolm Wellmaker

Moneyline
Pinnacle -220
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 2.75
Submission
Cloudbet 11.51
Decision
BetRivers +275

Juan Díaz

Moneyline
Unibet Eu +250
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 9.48
Submission
Unibet +1600
Decision
FanDuel +600
Fighter Stats

Malcolm Wellmaker

Age32
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Juan Díaz

Age28
Height5' 8"
Reach69"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Malcolm Wellmaker

5.8SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
5.39SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
57.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Juan Díaz

5.82SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
5.02SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
3.01TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Malcolm Wellmaker

Angelo picks Malcolm Wellmaker but is hesitant. He compares this fight to Wellmaker's previous loss where he was bullied by a short-notice opponent. He notes Juan Díaz is not as good a wrestler but could still cause problems. He gives Wellmaker the benefit of the doubt, thinking he may have learned from his loss.

"I'm going to pick Malcolm here. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Malcolm Wellmaker

Big Brady confidently picks Malcolm Wellmaker, believing his power and experience will be too much for Juan Diaz. He notes that Diaz has an inflated record and has not faced this level of competition. He predicts a decision win, as Diaz is durable.

"I like Malcolm Wmaker to get it done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Juan Díaz

Cody picks Juan Díaz as a dog, noting that Wellmaker is a sniper but can be outworked by pressure fighters. He points to Wellmaker's loss to Ethan Ewing, where Ewing took his best shots and returned fire. Díaz is durable, has solid grappling, and can make it a gritty fight. Cody believes the line is too heavy on Wellmaker and that Díaz has a chance to win a close decision or even get a late finish.

Mentions a potential Juan Díaz round three finish at 20-to-1 odds.
"I did end up taking Juan Diaz very very short very short uh amount."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
No clear pick

Lack of quality footage on Wellmaker makes it hard to gauge. Diaz is basic but well-rounded. The fight could be closer than odds suggest. No strong read, so pass.

"Don't have a strong read on this one due to a lack of good quality recent footage on Wellmaker."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Juan Díaz

Lucrative James leans toward Juan Díaz, citing Díaz's superior cardio, durability, and experience in five-round fights. He believes if Wellmaker doesn't get an early knockout, Díaz will take over in later rounds with grappling and volume. However, he notes the pick is tentative and subject to odds.

"My ultimate prediction for this fight will be Juan Diaz to win the fight via decision. But like I said, that's subject to change."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Malcolm Wellmaker

The host picks Malcolm Wellmaker to bounce back after his loss to Ethan Ewing. He acknowledges Diaz's durability could cause issues but believes Wellmaker will land more significant damage over 15 minutes to win on the scorecards.

"I like me some Wellmaker here to bounce back into the win column after that fumble that he had against Ethan Ewing. Diaz could provide some issues, especially if his durability is as good as I believe it …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Malcolm Wellmaker

The host believes Wellmaker has the speed and power advantage, but he is hesitant to bet him at -250 due to his recent loss and the unknown mentality coming off that defeat. He predicts Wellmaker wins by decision but will not bet the chalk.

"I think this will be a spot where Wallmaker eventually ends up finding that big shot um and really wobbles Diaz. Does he put him away? I'm not entirely sure."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Juan Díaz

Paul also backs Juan Díaz at plus 220, acknowledging the risk of getting knocked out early but noting Díaz's durability and flashy techniques. He likes Díaz's grappling and believes he can cause problems for Wellmaker. He also placed a small bet on Díaz by round three at 20-to-1.

Bet on Juan Díaz by round three at 20-to-1 odds.
"I clicked uh Juan Diaz at plus 220 the other day in the in the off chance that like the number went away."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Modestas Bukauskas

Modestas Bukauskas W

19-7
DEC R3 5:00
Fight 4 VS Catchweight (215 lb) Completed

Modestas Bukauskas

Moneyline
Betfair Exchange -294
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 3.15
Submission
FanDuel +650
Decision
BetRivers +210

Christian Edwards

Moneyline
Nordic Bet +295
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 9.23
Submission
Cloudbet 34.13
Decision
Unibet +700
Fighter Stats

Modestas Bukauskas

Age32
Height6' 3"
Reach78.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Christian Edwards

Age27
Height6' 5"
Reach78"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Modestas Bukauskas

3.24SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
4.05SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.26TD Avg
66.0%TD Acc.
79.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Christian Edwards

0.0SLpM
0.0%Str. Acc.
0.0SApM
0.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (3)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Cody reluctantly picks Modestas Bukauskas, noting that Christian Edwards has shown poor durability, heart, and grappling. He acknowledges that Bukauskas is not a high-level fighter but has fought better competition. However, he is not confident at -280 and considers it a dog-or-pass fight. He suggests Bukauskas by decision or an over 2.5 rounds prop.

Suggests Modestas Bukauskas by decision or over 2.5 rounds.
"For me, the PRP pick I I I h Well, as of right now, I am going to put Modesus Picowskus."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Modestas Bukauskas

Bukauskas is better everywhere and Edwards is on short notice. Bukauskas should win easily, but the odds are too short to bet. No interest in fight spread or over/under.

"I would be amazed if Edwards were to win this on less than a week's notice."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul struggles to pick a side, finding it hard to back Modestas Bukauskas at -280 and also not confident in Christian Edwards. He notes that Edwards has been knocked out by Ben Parish and lost to Rake Cleveland, but is still young and training at a good gym. He decides to pass from a betting perspective.

"I would really struggle to click Modest at minus 280. So I suppose it's dog or pass, but I'm probably going to be a coward and pass from an actual betting perspective here."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 5 VS Bantamweight Completed
Benardo Sopaj

Benardo Sopaj W

12-3
SUB R2 2:25

Timmy Cuamba

Moneyline
Caesars +130
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 7.24
Submission
Cloudbet 26.48
Decision
Cloudbet 3.84

Benardo Sopaj

Moneyline
Pinnacle -121
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 6.49
Submission
Cloudbet 15.44
Decision
BetRivers +180
Fighter Stats

Timmy Cuamba

Age27
Height5' 9"
Reach71"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Benardo Sopaj

Age25
Height5' 6"
Reach66"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Timmy Cuamba

2.77SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
3.58SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
1.31TD Avg
31.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Benardo Sopaj

4.24SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
4.88SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
2.53TD Avg
71.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

Angelo picks Benardo Sopaj, considering him the better fighter everywhere. He notes Sopaj is cleaner, faster, and a better wrestler. He trusts Sopaj's pressure and cardio despite a year layoff. He thinks -160 is a good spot.

"Bernardo Sopai is the pick. ... at minus 160, this might be one of the better spots on the card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

Big Brady leans toward Benardo Sopaj, citing his power, wrestling, and grappling upside. He expects Sopaj to be more active in striking and have a grappling advantage, as long as his cardio holds up. He predicts a decision win in a close fight.

"I'm going to lean Soai here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

Cody picks Benardo Sopaj, citing his higher striking volume (4.24 significant strikes per minute vs Cuamba's 2.77) and aggression. He notes that Cuamba has a reach advantage and uses his jab well, but Sopaj lands more and is the better striker. He expects a close 29-28 decision but is not overly confident due to Sopaj's one-dimensional style.

"I'm going to take Soai. Simple matter that I think he lands a lot more."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
No clear pick

Cuamba is well-rounded and has good cardio, but is passive. Sopaj is more technical but fades. The fight depends on Cuamba's aggression. No strong read, so pass.

"This fight is going to come down to how aggressive Kuamba is early and without a crystal ball, there's no way for us to know that."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

Lucrative James leans toward Benardo Sopaj, citing his power, grappling upside, and potential ceiling. He notes Sopaj's ability to get takedowns and hurt opponents, while Cuamba may struggle with speed at bantamweight. He predicts a decision win for Sopaj.

"I'm leaning with Bernardo Sapage a little bit. I think it might be the first time I've ever picked against my boy Timothy Kawa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

The host picks Bernardo Sopai over Timmy Kuamba, liking Sopai's bright future. He expects Sopai's aggressiveness, grappling defense, and cardio edge to wear down Kuamba and win on the scorecards.

"I really like Sopai in this spot, as I believe this 25-year-old has a very bright future. Look for his aggressiveness, grappling defense, and cardio edge to really wear down Kuamba and win this fight on the scorecards."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

The host is confident in Sopaj's ability to dictate the pace and pressure, exploiting Cuamba's discomfort in the pocket. He expects Sopaj's superior striking and scrambling to wear down Cuamba, leading to a clear decision win. He sees Cuamba's only path to victory as a lucky knockout.

"I think this is a phenomenal spot for a Soai, right? Like I said inqama's background, he needs to be the one in the uh dictating the pace and controlling the pace of a fight to have success. …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Benardo Sopaj

Paul also picks Benardo Sopaj, noting that he thought Sopaj would have success with offensive wrestling. He mentions that Cuamba has size issues and that Sopaj's volume and wrestling could be key. He hopes for a better price on fight day but is still going with Sopaj.

"I kind of thought that Soai is going to actually have success getting off his offensive wrestling going here."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Khaos Williams

Khaos Williams W

15-5
KO/TKO R1 3:31
Fight 6 VS Welterweight Completed

Khaos Williams

Moneyline
Coolbet -108
KO/TKO
FanDuel +240
Submission
Unibet +2400
Decision
Cloudbet 4.65

Nikolay Veretennikov

Moneyline
Betfair Exchange +108
KO/TKO
BetRivers +270
Submission
Unibet +2500
Decision
Cloudbet 5.13
Fighter Stats

Khaos Williams

Age32
Height6' 0"
Reach77.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Nikolay Veretennikov

Age36
Height6' 1"
Reach74.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Khaos Williams

4.94SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
5.39SApM
40.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
51.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Nikolay Veretennikov

2.69SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
3.3SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.42TD Avg
16.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Angelo picks Nikolay Veretennikov, considering him the better technical striker. He notes Khaos Williams has no takedown attempts in the UFC, so if Veretennikov has success striking, Williams has no backup plan. He expects Veretennikov's forward pressure to disrupt Williams. He calls it a crazy close fight.

"I actually think Nikolai is the better striker between the two. ... I'm actually going to pick Nikolai here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Big Brady picks Nikolay Veretennikov as a slight underdog, citing his striking tools and durability. He notes that Khaos Williams has not completed a takedown in the UFC, so the fight will likely stay standing, where Veretennikov has the edge. He predicts a decision win but is not confident enough to bet.

"I'm going to take the slight dog here in Veritin."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Cody picks Nikolay Veretennikov, noting that Khaos Williams has looked disinterested and reluctant to engage in recent fights. Veretennikov is a versatile striker with good body work and durability, while Williams relies on power but has low volume. Cody believes Veretennikov's higher work rate and shot selection will allow him to outwork Williams over three rounds.

"I got Verikov to edge this thing out."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Khaos Williams

Connor picks Williams but with hesitation, noting that Veretennikov could win if he circles away and throws one-twos, but Veretennikov doesn't circle. He emphasizes that Williams is a power-based fighter with no technique and has been brutally bullied in recent fights, but Veretennikov is not good enough to exploit that.

Same odds as Zane. Connor calls it a 'wasted matchup' and suggests better opponents for Williams.
"I'm going to still pick him, but it has to be noted. Like if Veritenikoff just shows up and like I said, it's like, Oh, what if I circle away and throw one tooth or just ones?"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Khaos Williams

Williams lands harder shots and has better cardio. Veretennikov slows down and has poor takedown offense. However, Williams can be passive and head-hunts. The fight spread is a better bet than the moneyline.

Khaos Williams +3.5 at 1.60 is a great bet.
"I'm very tempted to bet on Khaos Williams in this matchup."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Lucrative James picks Nikolay Veretennikov to win by KO, citing Veretennikov's Muay Thai clinch and knees against a striker like Williams. He notes Williams's recent losses and potential lack of focus, while Veretennikov is all-in on MMA. He predicts a second-round finish via knee to the body.

win by KO in round 2
"I'm picking Nikolai Veritenov to get this one done via knee to the body in the clinch in round two."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

The host picks Khaos Williams over Nikolay Veretennikov, expecting Williams to thwart Veretennikov's approach and land big power shots early and often, leading to a decision win.

"I fully expect Williams to thwart whatever approach Veretennikov is taking and then start to battle back with big power of his own, and I think he'll be able to touch up Veretennikov early and often, and I …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

The host believes Williams' defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight standing, where he has the striking advantage. He expects Williams to pull away in the later rounds and win by decision, though a knockout is possible. He is confident in Williams at -130.

"I think his grappling defense will be good enough to keep Veritanikov away from trying to grind this fight out. And in terms of striking, I think Williams is the more dangerous striker."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Paul hesitantly picks Nikolay Veretennikov at plus 110, noting that both fighters' opponents usually try to take them down. He hopes that Veretennikov's training camp with high-level wrestlers may have improved his offensive wrestling, allowing him to steal close rounds. He acknowledges it's a volatile fight and is not heavily invested.

"Give me the ever so slight plus money on Nikolai. Um, hesitantly."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Khaos Williams

Zane picks Khaos Williams because Veretennikov is low-output, can't wrestle, and doesn't use his length effectively. He notes that Williams is powerful and should be able to blitz Veretennikov, though he acknowledges Williams has never beaten a really good fighter and his last two fights were brutal losses.

Odds: Williams opened -150, now -120; Veretennikov opened +130, now +100. Zane calls it a 'stupid fight' and a 'wasted matchup'.
"So yeah, he'll probably beat Nikolai Veritenikov. Yeah, probably scare him at least."
Fight Notes

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Fight 7 VS Light Heavyweight Completed
Ivan Erslan

Ivan Erslan W

14-6
DEC R3 5:00

Tuco Tokkos

Moneyline
Unibet Eu +188
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 13.73
Submission
Cloudbet 9.43
Decision
BetRivers +370

Ivan Erslan

Moneyline
Caesars -155
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 2.71
Submission
FanDuel +1200
Decision
Cloudbet 5.24
Fighter Stats

Tuco Tokkos

Age35
Height6' 4"
Reach76.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Ivan Erslan

Age34
Height6' 2"
Reach72.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tuco Tokkos

2.12SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
4.27SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
4.21TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ivan Erslan

2.55SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
5.01SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.45TD Avg
20.0%TD Acc.
61.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

Angelo picks Tuco Tokkos, noting he expected Tuco to be the favorite. He believes Tuco can take a beating and get the fight to the ground, where he has an advantage. He views Ivan Erslan as KO or bust and doubts Erslan gets the KO, leading to a loss. He bet on Tuco at +165.

"I think Tuco is gonna be able to get this fight to the ground. ... Ivon Urslon is KO or bust. I don't think he gets the KO. Therefore, he busts."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

Big Brady leans toward Ivan Erslan, believing his boxing and power will be too much for Tuco Tokkos. He expects Erslan to stuff takedowns and land a first-round knockout, as Tokkos has shown poor striking defense and durability.

first round KO
"I'm leaning Erszlon by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

Cody is confident in Ivan Erslan, despite his 0-3 UFC record. He notes that Erslan has good get-up abilities, a decent gas tank, and durability, which are kryptonite to Tuco Tokkos's grinding style. Tokkos relies on takedowns but has poor top control and gasses. Cody expects Erslan to survive early takedowns, return to his feet, and eventually hurt Tokkos for a TKO in the later rounds.

Suggests over 1.5 or over 2.5 takedowns for Tokkos, but prefers Erslan by TKO.
"I feel like Urslon's Yeah, maybe maybe has a bad first round. Maybe gets taken down a few times, but inevitably he's going to return to his feet, club him with something, hurt Toast, or doesn't hurt him, …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

Connor picks Tokkos, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Erslan is undercooked and not durable, while Tokkos is a decent fighter who can wrestle. He emphasizes that Erslan's only finishes are early, and if he doesn't finish quickly, he loses.

Same odds as Zane. Connor calls Erslan 'raw chicken' and 'undercooked'.
"I got to take Tuktokos because even with Tuktokos getting smoked, it is, it's, it's never inside a minute. And Yvonne Ersan has won exactly one fight outside of the first two minutes."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

Lucrative James picks Ivan Erslan to win by knockout, believing Erslan is a level above Tokkos on the feet. He notes Erslan's better boxing and Tokkos's grappling is not high-level. He predicts Erslan will maintain his UFC roster spot with an inside-the-distance finish.

win by KO
"Ivan Urselin is my prediction here and I'm actually going to say that he gets it done inside the distance via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

The host picks Ivan Erslan over Tuco Tokkos, expecting Erslan's power and improved grappling defense to allow him to pick apart Tokkos and find a finish within two and a half rounds.

finish under 2.5 rounds
"I believe it's going to be Erslan's power and improved grappling defense that should help him pick apart Tokkos and eventually find the finish under two and a half rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ivan Erslan

The host respects Erslan's power and believes his defensive grappling is good enough to avoid Tokkos' submissions, leading to a knockout win. However, he is hesitant to bet Erslan at -200 due to his recent submission loss and the risk of Tokkos catching him. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds
"I think Urslan has better defensive grappling than Junior Taffa, albeit not by a lot. But I think that difference in defensive grappling will be enough for Urslan to get out of those bad spots from Tokos."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight, as he discusses the odds and the difficulty of betting on Ivan Erslan at -160. He mentions that Erslan is 0-3 in the UFC and has been finished, but also notes that Tokkos has cardio issues. He does not express a strong opinion.

"I don't want to pay minus 180 on Ursland. Give me a break. He not good."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tuco Tokkos

Zane picks Tokkos because Erslan is bad and has only won one fight outside the first two minutes; almost all his finishes are sub-one-minute. Tokkos is not athletic but can wrestle and grapple, and Erslan was immediately outgrappled by Jimmy Crute. Zane expects Tokkos to wrestle and grapple Erslan.

Odds: Tokkos opened +250, now +155; Erslan opened -300, now -180. Zane calls it a 'stupid fucking fight' and 'the height of meaninglessness'.
"So yeah, it's possible, but he also just went in there and got like immediately out grappled by Jimmy crude, which like Tuktokos is definitely going to wrestle and grapple him. Yeah. I got to take Tuktokos, but …"
Fight Notes

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Tommy Gantt

Tommy Gantt W

11-0
KO/TKO R2 2:51
Fight 8 VS Lightweight Completed

Tommy Gantt

Moneyline
Betfair Exchange -172
KO/TKO
FanDuel +450
Submission
Unibet +380
Decision
BetRivers +255

Artur Minev

Moneyline
Pinnacle +196
KO/TKO
BetWay +500
Submission
BetRivers +1150
Decision
FanDuel +550
Fighter Stats

Tommy Gantt

Age33
Height5' 11"
Reach76"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Artur Minev

Age22
Height5' 9"
Reach69"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tommy Gantt

1.08SLpM
100.0%Str. Acc.
0.36SApM
66.0%Str. Def.
10.78TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
5.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Artur Minev

0.0SLpM
0.0%Str. Acc.
0.0SApM
0.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tommy Gantt

Big Brady confidently picks Tommy Gantt, highlighting his high-level wrestling and ability to control the fight on the ground. He notes that Artur Minev has power but is vulnerable to takedowns, especially on short notice. He predicts a decision win for Gantt.

"I'm going to take Thomas Gant to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tommy Gantt

Cody picks Tommy Gantt, citing his superior wrestling pedigree as a D1 All-American and Pan-American gold medalist. He notes that Artur Minev is a one-shot-at-a-time striker who relies on takedowns, but Gantt is a better wrestler and athlete. Cody expects Gantt to chain-wrestle and drown Minev, though he acknowledges the fight may be boring. He also likes the over 1.5 rounds prop.

Suggests over 1.5 rounds at minus 150 or above.
"I got Gant. I think this fight's going to be unbelievably boring just the way that their styles match up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tommy Gantt

Connor picks Gantt, praising his structured game, dynamic wrestling, and clinch work. He notes Minev is a more natural power puncher but lacks combination punching and may be at a size disadvantage. Gantt's ability to dictate the fight is key.

Same odds as Zane. Connor notes Gantt's age (33) but respects his rapid fight accumulation.
"And with Minav, there's the start of a pretty interesting fighter as well. He's got power and he's got wrestling himself, but it's much, much more a young fighter trying to put a game together."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Tommy Gantt

Gantt looks excellent with a good body type, offensive wrestling, and submission game. Mineev is a jack-of-all-trades with no major strengths. Gantt likely wins, but the odds are too short to bet. Under 2.5 rounds is interesting due to potential skill gap.

Under 2.5 rounds is interesting.
"Gantt could be one to watch. I think he could be something a little bit special."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tommy Gantt

Paul also picks Tommy Gantt, noting that Minev is taking the fight on short notice and has shown durability issues. He believes Gantt's wrestling will be the difference, as Minev has not faced a wrestler of Gantt's caliber. Paul is interested in the over 1.5 rounds if the total opens favorably.

Interested in over 1.5 rounds if the total opens at minus 150 or above.
"Give me the guy who's actually been preparing for this card, not taking the fight on short notice, who hasn't really shown me the durability issues."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tommy Gantt

Zane picks Gantt because he has a clear vision and imposes his will, with dynamic wrestling and a mean clinch reminiscent of Jon Jones. Minev is a young fighter still putting his game together, with trouble getting offense started at range. Gantt's size and reach advantage also factor in.

Odds: Gantt opened -400, now -225; Minev opened +330, now +190. Zane calls it a 'cool fight' and looks forward to it.
"So I do think we're probably going to see some, I hope we see some really cool back and forth wrestling exchanges here though, because, uh, I do think that Minav is up to snuff, stopping most people's …"
Fight Notes

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Ketlen Vieira

Ketlen Vieira W

15-5
DEC R3 5:00
Fight 9 VS Women's Bantamweight Completed

Ketlen Vieira

Moneyline
Caesars +150
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 22.60
Submission
Cloudbet 15.06
Decision
Cloudbet 3.08

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Moneyline
Betfair Exchange -137
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
Cloudbet 35.84
Decision
Cloudbet 2.15
Fighter Stats

Ketlen Vieira

Age34
Height5' 8"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Age28
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Ketlen Vieira

2.76SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
3.75SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.33TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
90.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jacqueline Cavalcanti

5.65SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
3.17SApM
68.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
88.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Angelo picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti, trusting her speed and footwork. He expects Cavalcanti to win the striking exchanges and that Vieira's takedowns won't matter to the judges. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds as a lock. He notes Vieira may have won her last fight but expects a similar decision loss here.

over 2.5 rounds
"I trust the speed. I trust the footwork. I think Jacquelini gets it done. ... The over two and a half here is about as big of a lock as you're going to get."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Big Brady leans toward Jacqueline Cavalcanti, believing she is the better striker with superior volume. He thinks she can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, winning by decision. He acknowledges Ketlen Vieira's path to victory via takedowns but doubts she will execute.

"I'm going to take Kavaki to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Cody picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti, citing her high striking volume (6.5 significant strikes per minute) and youth. He notes that Ketlen Vieira often gets out-struck but wins via cage control, but believes Cavalcanti's takedown defense has improved and she is physically strong enough to avoid being smothered. He expects Cavalcanti to out-land Vieira and win a 29-28 decision, though he acknowledges the risk of judges favoring control time.

Suggests Cavalcanti by decision or split decision.
"Calvocanti is going to outland her, but there's a good probability that she will give up the control time."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Connor picks Cavalcanti, agreeing with Zane. He notes Vieira has no progression in her game and only changes aggression level per opponent. Cavalcanti is defensively minded, moves her feet well, and has a jab, making it hard for Vieira to charge in. He hopes Vieira doesn't drag Cavalcanti into the mud.

Same odds as Zane. Connor calls Vieira 'stuck in the mud'.
"The only hope is that she doesn't stick the only, uh, bright spot in the division in the mud with her."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Cavalcanti is better everywhere: more technical striker, higher pace, better fight IQ, difficult to take down, great cardio. Vieira has low volume and bad fight IQ. Cavalcanti will outpoint Vieira and win a comfortable decision.

"I think Ketlen Vieira is going to win relatively convincingly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Lucrative James leans toward Jacqueline Cavalcanti, citing her superior striking and consistent volume. He believes Vieira's takedowns may not be enough to win two rounds, and Cavalcanti's composed striking will earn a decision. He notes the fight could be close and split.

"I'm going to say Cavalcante wins the decision. I'm going to say it's 1-1 going into round three and she isn't able to get a takedown."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

The host picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Ketlen Vieira, believing this fight will launch Cavalcanti into title contention. He cites Cavalcanti's improved grappling defense and striking edge to pick apart Vieira and win on the scorecards.

"I believe Cavalcanti's grappling defense improvements and her striking edge here will allow her to pick apart Vieira and win this fight on the score cards."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

The host thinks Cavalcanti is a slicker striker with a better gas tank, but he is hesitant to bet her at -155 due to Vieira's grappling threat and live dog status. He predicts Cavalcanti wins by decision, but would only bet if the line drops closer to -120.

"I think Cavalcanti has the better gas tank. I think she can land with a little bit more output and I believe enough in her grappling to predict her to win this fight, but not so much to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Paul picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti by split decision, noting that both fighters are likely to go to decision and that Vieira has been involved in many split decisions. He believes Cavalcanti's volume and more impactful strikes will earn her the nod, but expects it to be contentious. He bet the fight ends in a split decision at plus 400.

Bet on fight ends in split decision at plus 400.
"I took the fight ends in split decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Zane picks Cavalcanti because she is a sharp technical striker with good footwork and a jab, while Vieira is stuck in the mud with no progression in her game. He expects Cavalcanti to pick Vieira apart at range, as Vieira's only path is to overpower her in the clinch, but she often spends time at range not knowing what to do.

Odds: Vieira opened +120, now +145; Cavalcanti opened -140, now -170. Zane calls it a 'good fight if Vieira doesn't win it'.
"If that happens, uh, it's basically just the cub Swanson versus Nate Landware or body green versus Jeremy Stevens equation. Again, here's somebody with some idea of positioning with long straight efficient strikes, she should be able to …"
Fight Notes

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Cody Brundage

Cody Brundage W

11-9-1
KO/TKO R2 0:44
Fight 10 VS Middleweight Completed

Cody Brundage

Moneyline
FanDuel +180
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 4.57
Submission
Cloudbet 12.02
Decision
Cloudbet 10.24

Andre Petroski

Moneyline
Unibet Eu -125
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
Unibet +350
Decision
Cloudbet 3.40
Fighter Stats

Cody Brundage

Age32
Height6' 0"
Reach72.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Andre Petroski

Age34
Height6' 0"
Reach73.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Cody Brundage

2.26SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.02SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.88TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Andre Petroski

2.81SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
2.79SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
3.15TD Avg
51.0%TD Acc.
86.0%TD Def.
1.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cody Brundage

Angelo picks Cody Brundage despite acknowledging his inconsistency and cardio issues. He believes Brundage is the better wrestler and striker with more power, and has faced tougher competition. However, he is hesitant due to Brundage's tendency to fade. He loves the +170 odds but is unsure about betting.

"I'm picking Cody because I think he's the better fighter. The skills are there. I think he's the better wrestler. I think he's the better striker. I think he's got more power."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cody Brundage

Big Brady picks Cody Brundage for the upset, citing Petroski's glass chin and Brundage's early power. He notes that Brundage has wrestling to stuff takedowns early and only needs one shot to knock out Petroski. He admits this is a greasy pick and rarely picks Brundage.

first round KO
"I'm going to take Cody Brundage for the upset."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Brundage

Cody picks Cody Brundage as a dog, despite his poor record, because he believes this is a winnable matchup. He notes that Brundage has struggled against long, rangy fighters, but Andre Petroski is his size and has a similar wrestling style. Cody thinks Brundage's speed and overhand right can catch Petroski, who has poor durability and gasses. He predicts a Brundage knockout in round one.

Brundage by KO in round one; under 1.5 rounds.
"I have a feeling that Cody Brundage is going to finish this fight, catch him with an overhand and knock him out."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Andre Petroski

Connor picks Petroski, agreeing with Zane. He describes Petroski as a busted experiment who is tense and fragile, but Brundage is even worse—a panicking fighter with no technique who corners himself. He notes Brundage could knock himself out by level-changing into a knee.

Same odds as Zane. Connor calls Brundage a 'meatheaded middleweight' and says his fight schedule is 'that of a whore'.
"So, um, yeah, I'll take Petrosky. I think he's, you know, he'll probably get Cody Brundage down. Yeah. I should do it. Should be enough."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Andre Petroski

Lucrative James confidently picks Andre Petroski to win by submission, citing Petroski's superior grappling and top control. He notes Brundage's tendency to quit when pressured and Petroski's ability to take him down. He predicts an inside-the-distance finish.

win by submission
"I have to take Andre Petroski to get the grappling going. And once he gets the grappling going, we've seen time and time again Cody Brundage basically just quits."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Andre Petroski

The host picks Andre Petroski over Cody Brundage, expecting Petroski's wrestling to take over in deep water. He notes that Petroski's durability must hold up early, but if it does, Petroski will grind out a decision win.

"I fully expect Petroski's wrestling to really start to come through, especially in deep water, as long as his durability can hold up early here. He should be able to survive the early onslaught from Brundage, then really …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Andre Petroski

The host believes Petroski is the better fighter but is hesitant to trust him at -200, as Brundage has power and could land an early knockout. He expects Petroski's wrestling and top pressure to wear down Brundage, leading to a decision win. He is interested in the Petroski decision prop if at +200 or better.

Petroski by decision (if +200 or better)
"I think Petroski will start to wear down Brundage, and I think that's where we'll see Petroski get to his wrestling, and that should be enough to for him to really start grinding this fight out."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cody Brundage

Paul also leans toward Cody Brundage, joining Cody in the Brundage by KO prop. He notes that Petroski knocked himself out on Malcoun's hip and has suspect durability. He believes Brundage has a chance to land a big shot and finish the fight early.

Brundage by KO.
"I'm going to join you in that uh in the round one and bumage by KO prop because Petroski what knocked out knocked himself out on Malcoun's hip that one time."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Andre Petroski

Zane picks Petroski because he thinks Petroski will get Brundage down and should be enough. He notes Brundage's only idea is to shell up and throw a desperate overhand, and he often panics. However, he acknowledges Brundage could land a big punch.

Odds: Petroski opened -200, now -185; Brundage opened +160, now +170. Zane calls it a 'shit ass fight' and 'bottom barrel'.
"So, um, yeah, I'll take Petrosky. I think he's, you know, he'll probably get Cody Brundage down. Yeah. I should do it. Should be enough."
Fight Notes

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Alice Ardelean

Alice Ardelean W

11-7
SUB R2 4:36
Fight 11 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Alice Ardelean

Moneyline
Unibet Eu -147
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 12.21
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
Cloudbet 2.28

Polyana Viana

Moneyline
Betsson +180
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 12.59
Submission
Cloudbet 7.96
Decision
Cloudbet 5.30
Fighter Stats

Alice Ardelean

Age34
Height5' 3"
Reach62.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Polyana Viana

Age33
Height5' 5"
Reach67.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Alice Ardelean

7.35SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
5.2SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
1.0TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Polyana Viana

2.74SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
2.5SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.75TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
35.0%TD Def.
1.7Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Angelo picks Alice Ardelean, citing her durability, cardio, and well-roundedness. He notes Polyana Viana has declined and has quit in her. He believes Ardelean can find a finish or win a decision. He acknowledges the -200 line seems high but thinks the matchup is favorable.

"I got to go with Alice Hardling here. Minus 200 on a lady that's had seven losses in her career. Seems crazy, but matchups are the difference here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Big Brady picks Alice Ardelean, noting her superior volume and improvement compared to Polyana Viana, whom he views as more of a part-time fighter. He expects Ardelean to win by third-round TKO, as Viana tends to fade after the first round. However, he is hesitant due to the steep price.

third round TKO
"I'm going to take her to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Cody is confident in Alice Ardelean, noting her high work rate (7.3 significant strikes per minute) and physical strength. He believes Polyana Viana is not committed to fighting and relies on early submissions, but Ardelean is tough, comes forward, and can outwork her. He expects Ardelean to bully Viana and win by decision or late stoppage.

"I think styles make fights and she's got a really good style to just out muscle and bully Pauliana Vienna."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Connor picks Ardelean, agreeing with Zane. He notes Viana looks like she is hardly paying attention anymore and has unlearned her wild swinging, making her even worse. Ardelean has improved from an OnlyFans content creator to a professional fighter.

Same odds as Zane. Connor calls Viana 'literally worse than when she debuted'.
"Yep. I agree. You know, I agree with that logic. Viana looks like she is hardly paying attention anymore."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Alice Ardelean

Ardelean is the better striker with better cardio, fight IQ, and pace. Viana gives up cheap takedowns and is weak off her back, while Ardelean understands position over submission. Ardelean will outwork Viana in the second half of the fight.

"This is a really good stylistic match-up for Aldeline because she's the better striker in my opinion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Lucrative James picks Alice Ardelean, citing her physicality, durability, and focus on MMA compared to Viana's social media distractions. He believes Ardelean's strength and cardio will wear down Viana, leading to a decision win.

"I'll pick Alice to win the fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

The host picks Reedelion (Ardelean) over Polyana Viana, citing Ardelean's grit, determination, and forward movement. He expects Ardelean to catch Viana's reckless nature and finish the fight, either by submission or TKO, within two and a half rounds.

finish under 2.5 rounds
"I believe she'll be able to catch the reckless nature of Viana here, and I believe that will lead to an Reedelion finish. Not sure if it's going to be club and sub or just straight-up club and …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

The host thinks Ardelean is well-rounded enough to take advantage of Viana's recklessness, but he is hesitant to bet her at -200 due to Viana's volatility and finishing ability. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds at +200, predicting Ardelean wins inside the distance, possibly by TKO or submission.

under 2.5 rounds (+200), Ardelean inside the distance
"I think Ardellion will be able to take advantage of the recklessness of Vienna. Whether that's in the striking realm or in the grappling realm, I think Ardellion is well-rounded enough to be able to take advantage of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Paul also picks Alice Ardelean, noting that Polyana Viana's wins are all first-round submissions against low-level competition, and she has been finished in her recent losses. He believes Ardelean's toughness and wrestling will be too much for Viana, who is more focused on her OnlyFans career.

"If you're going to bet Paula Vienna, the submission round one prop would be like that's how I would get involved."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alice Ardelean

Zane picks Ardelean because Viana has regressed, now only going backward and pulling guard, and has been crushed on the ground in her last three fights. Ardelean is not a technical marvel but is willing to fight and should be able to handle Viana.

Odds: Ardelean opened -250, now -200; Viana opened +210, now +170. Zane calls it a 'stupid fight' and 'completely unnecessary'.
"And Ardalene might not do that. She's not a technical Marvel anywhere, but Ardalene is very much all the way down to fight. So I'll take her."
Fight Notes

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Fight 12 VS Flyweight Completed
Luis Gurule

Luis Gurule W

10-3
DEC R3 5:00

Daniel Bárez

Moneyline
Pinnacle +280
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
BetRivers +300

Luis Gurule

Moneyline
Caesars -105
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 5.11
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
Cloudbet 3.65
Fighter Stats

Daniel Bárez

Age37
Height5' 6"
Reach66"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Luis Gurule

Age32
Height5' 5"
Reach64.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Daniel Bárez

3.65SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
5.95SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.93TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Luis Gurule

4.47SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
4.74SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
0.58TD Avg
14.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

Angelo picks Luis Gurule, viewing the fight as close to a coin flip. He notes that Barez struggled against forward pressure, which is Gurule's style. He expects Gurule's pressure and volume to earn a close decision, possibly a split. He is not betting on this fight.

"My money's on Luis Garu, not my literal money. I'm not betting on this [ __ ] My uh theoretical money is on Luis Gar here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Bárez

Big Brady leans toward Daniel Bárez despite concerns about his age and cardio. He believes Bárez's power and early finishing ability will be too much for Luis Gurule, whose chin he no longer trusts. He predicts a first-round knockout, but acknowledges the fight could turn ugly if it goes longer.

first round KO
"I'm going to lean Perez just because I think he's going to hit Gerle very hard and I just don't trust Gerilli's chin at this point of his career."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

Cody picks Luis Gurule, noting that Daniel Bárez has a poor gas tank and fades after the first round. Gurule is slow to start but has good cardio and comes on late. Cody expects Bárez to win the first round but tire, allowing Gurule to take over in the second and third, possibly getting a late stoppage.

Suggests Gurule by TKO in round three.
"Gurule very slow in the first round. So this is a great opportunity that Guerle probably will lose the first round. ... If you do exactly that, you're going to win the second, you're going to win the …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luis Gurule

Connor picks Gurule, agreeing with Zane. He notes Bárez is 37 and was signed at 35, which is old for flyweight. Gurule is American and has a solid style, though he lacks a next gear at this weight.

Same odds as Zane. Connor calls Bárez 'undercooked' and notes the UFC signing older fighters.
"Yeah, I'll take grueling. Whatever."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

Lucrative James hesitantly picks Luis Gurule, citing Gurule's superior cardio and will to win, while Bárez tends to fade after round one. He acknowledges Bárez's early power and knockout threat, but believes Gurule can win rounds two and three. He is not confident and may avoid betting.

"I'm going to pick Lewis Garle here. I'm going to pick Lewis Garle to get the fight one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

The host picks Luis Corrales (Gurule) over Daniel Barres, believing Corrales will finally get his first UFC win. He expects Corrales to use pace, pressure, and forward movement to win on the scorecards.

"I believe Luis Corrales will be successful this weekend. I look for him to put a large a large amount of pace, pressure, and forward movement against Barz and then win this fight on the score cards."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

The host feels this is the best stylistic matchup for Gurule to get his first UFC win, as Bárez doesn't have the same power or athleticism as Gurule's previous opponents. He expects Gurule's pressure and pace to wear down Bárez in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. He is confident in Gurule at -110.

"I feel pretty decent about him at minus 110. I kind of overtrusted him in past fights, but I feel like this is a good enough stylistic matchup for him to finally get back to the winning track."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight, noting that both fighters are low-level flyweights and that the winner will likely face a Contender Series pickup next. He does not express a strong opinion.

"We're really scraping the bottom of the flyweight barrel here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luis Gurule

Zane picks Gurule because Bárez is an undercooked regional power striker, while Gurule has a nuts-and-bolts wrestle-boxer style. However, he notes Gurule is a step behind at flyweight and lacks a next gear. Bárez might land hard shots but won't follow up.

Odds: Bárez opened -110, now +128; Gurule opened -110, now -148. Zane says 'Don't even read the odds. Don't bet on this.'
"So I guess I'll take gruel or gruel. Yeah, I think it's grueling."
Fight Notes

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Fight 13 VS Women's Strawweight Completed
Nicolle Caliari

Nicolle Caliari W

8-4
SUB R3 3:08

Shauna Bannon

Moneyline
Pinnacle +360
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 27.34
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
Cloudbet 5.32

Nicolle Caliari

Moneyline
BetRivers -186
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 13.66
Submission
Cloudbet 5.70
Decision
BetRivers +104
Fighter Stats

Shauna Bannon

Age32
Height5' 5"
Reach65.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Nicolle Caliari

Age29
Height5' 3"
Reach62.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Shauna Bannon

4.32SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.75SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
40.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Nicolle Caliari

3.46SLpM
38.0%Str. Acc.
7.01SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
2.88TD Avg
24.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
1.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Angelo picks Nicolle Caliari, heavily criticizing Shauna Bannon's skills, especially her BJJ. He believes Caliari can get the fight to the ground and will have a massive advantage there. He calls Bannon one of the worst fighters on the roster and expects Caliari to win easily.

"I'm gonna pick Nicole Caliari here because she should be able to get this fight to the ground and then on the ground will have a giant advantage."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Big Brady picks Nicolle Caliari confidently, citing her wrestling and judo advantage over Shauna Bannon. He notes Bannon's poor takedown defense and lack of power, and expects Caliari to exploit this on the ground. He predicts a second-round submission, as Bannon has shown vulnerability to grappling.

submission in round 2
"I like Kaliari here. I actually think she finds a sub in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Cody is confident in Nicolle Caliari, noting that Shauna Bannon has poor takedown defense (40%) and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Caliari is willing to shoot takedowns and has good grappling. Bannon is a point-based karate stylist who relies on distance, but Caliari can close the distance, take her down, and dominate on the ground. Cody expects Caliari to get her first UFC win.

"Kiari, good spot to get her first win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Connor picks Caliari, agreeing with Zane. He notes Bannon is not an athlete and struggles to generate power, while Caliari is a physical powerhouse. Bannon's only wins are over other non-athletes, and she was dominated by Sam Hughes.

Same odds as Zane. Connor calls Bannon's background 'traditional martial arts in the most derogatory way'.
"Yeah, I would think so. Bannon's only wins are two other non-athletes, Puja Tomar, Alice Ardalone, and Mita Grusander and Invicta, and she's lost to physical powerhouses like Bruno Brazil and Sam."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Nicolle Caliari

Caliari is a good offensive wrestler with decent cardio, and Bannon's takedown defense and ground game are very bad. Bannon will have the advantage on the feet but will likely spend most of the fight on the ground. Caliari should win easily, but the odds are too short to bet.

Under 2.5 rounds at 3.3 (+230) is a possible gamble, but not recommended.
"Caliari is the favorite because she's a good offensive wrestler with decent enough cardio to push a decent pace and shoot a decent enough number of takedowns for the full three rounds."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Lucrative James picks Nicolle Caliari, believing she can take Bannon down and dominate on the mat. He notes Bannon's vulnerability to wrestlers and Caliari's toughness and power. He predicts a decision win for Caliari, possibly with a submission.

"Nicole to win the fight via takedowns, maybe via submission, but ultimately I'll pick decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

The host picks Montaño (Nicolle Caliari) over Shauna Bannon, citing Montaño's judo and physicality to drag the fight into uncomfortable positions for Bannon, leading to a decision win. He is surprised Montaño is such a heavy favorite but acknowledges the low level of both fighters.

"I'm going to go with the Montaño side of things as I believe her judo and her physicality will allow her to drag this fight into positions where Bannon will find it uncomfortable leading to Montaño winning this …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

The host believes Caliari's physicality and grappling will be the difference, as she can grind out takedowns and control the fight. However, he is hesitant to trust the chalk on Caliari at -240, noting Bannon's striking style could cause problems. He predicts Caliari by decision but prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.

under 2.5 rounds (+260 to +300)
"I think Caliari will be successful in terms of getting to her grappling and utilizing her physicality and I think that'll lead to her continuously landing takedowns and I think she ends up grinding this fight out."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Paul also picks Nicolle Caliari, noting that he will never back Shauna Bannon again after she was knocked down by Puya Tomar. He believes Caliari can mix in wrestling and keep it competitive on the feet, while Bannon's strikes lack power. He parlayed Caliari with Daniel Santos earlier in the week.

Parlayed Caliari with Daniel Santos at -143.
"Be a cold day in Missouri before I back Shauna Bannon again."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Zane picks Caliari because she is a physical powerhouse who should bully Bannon. Bannon is a non-athlete with no power, coming from a traditional martial arts background, and has lost to physical powerhouses. Caliari has fought tough competition and hung with them.

Odds: Caliari opened -225, now -235; Bannon opened +190, now +200. Zane calls Bannon 'bad' and says Caliari should 'just wreck' her.
"And, you know, so yeah, she's lost to pretty good people and she's, she should just wreck Chana Bannon."
Fight Notes

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Cancelled Fights
Modestas Bukauskas
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Nicolas Dalby