Nicolle Caliari

1-2
Record
Age / DOB 29
(Nov 04, 1996)
Height 5' 3"
Weight 125 lbs.
Reach 62.0"
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages
3.46 Sig. Strikes / Min
38.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
7.01 Absorbed / Min
53.0% Strike Defense
2.88 TD Avg / 15 min
24.0% TD Accuracy
0.0% TD Defense
1.0 Sub. / Fight
Win Methods (1)
KO/TKO 0
Submission 1
Decision 0
Loss Methods (2)
KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 1

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shauna Bannon 0 29 of 49 59% 158 of 183 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:50
Nicolle Caliari 0 20 of 38 52% 50 of 68 4 of 9 44% 1 0 9:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shauna Bannon 0 2 of 7 28% 82 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Nicolle Caliari 0 6 of 9 66% 25 of 28 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:33
2 Shauna Bannon 0 20 of 28 71% 64 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Nicolle Caliari 0 6 of 14 42% 10 of 18 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:35
3 Shauna Bannon 0 7 of 14 50% 12 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nicolle Caliari 0 8 of 15 53% 15 of 22 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shauna Bannon 29 of 49 59% 16 of 31 9 of 11 4 of 7 19 of 38 1 of 2 9 of 9
Nicolle Caliari 20 of 38 52% 18 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 26 2 of 2 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shauna Bannon 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolle Caliari 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Shauna Bannon 20 of 28 71% 13 of 18 7 of 8 0 of 2 10 of 17 1 of 2 9 of 9
Nicolle Caliari 6 of 14 42% 5 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 9 1 of 1 4 of 4
3 Shauna Bannon 7 of 14 50% 2 of 8 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolle Caliari 8 of 15 53% 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 10 1 of 1 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Shauna Bannon vs. Nicolle Caliari

Round 1
Kerry Hatley is the referee. They swing right away during a furious and brief exchange. Caliari closes distance and executes a throw, but Bannon is able to return to her feet. Not much later, Caliari executes another head-and-arm throw and lands inside full guard. Bannon is crafty from her back, as she neutralizes the Brazilian while looking for submission openings. Caliari stands briefly, but can’t clear the legs and ends up diving back into full guard. Caliari drives her forearm into her foe’s neck, while Bannon peppers her with annoying punches from her back. Caliari tires to stay busy with short punches to the ribs. Bannon creates a scramble with her guard but Caliari stands and drops a forceful right hand. Caliari shifts to a north-south position, and Bannon has her feet on the fence. Caliari looks to frame a kimura, but Bannon won’t allow the Brazilian to separate her hands. Calaria transitions to a back take just before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
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Round 2
Caliari is aggressive, pressing forward with punches before forcing the clinch. Caliari clings to a leg, pulls Bannon off the cage and then secures a rear body lock. Caliari is able to plant Bannon on the canvas, again landing in her foe’s full guard. Caliari drops an elbow and dives back into guard. Bannon throws more short strikes from her back. Bannon is able to create space with her guard. Caliari stands and Hatley orders a standup. Bannon pressures forward, but Caliarri responds and tags her. Caliari catches a kick and shoves Bannon into the wire. Bannon lands a sharp body kick and Caliari drops low for a takedown. Bannon defends well and turns her opponent into the cage. Bannon lands a short elbow in the clinch. Caliari counters with a throw attempt, but Bannon is able to reverse into top position. She sets up in half guard, where she lands a short elbow. Bannon is heavy on top, but Caliari is active on bottom trying to create scrambles. Bannon floats on top and she ends the round with some solid ground-and-pound.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bannon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bannon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bannon

Round 3
Bannon fires off a jab and a pair of low kicks. Bannon moves in with a 1-2 and moves away. Caliari turns up the aggression, flurrying with a short punching combination before shoving the Irishwoman into the fence. Caliari denies a hip toss from her foe and rolls into top position. An earlier punching flurry seems to have had a pernicious effect on Bannon’s face, as she has a serious mouse over her left eye. Caliari seems to be in control in half guard, applying pressure while landing short punches and elbows from above. The Brazilian is thinking about an arm triangle. Caliari applies the squeeze and the passes to the correct side to complete the choke. Bannon has no choice but to tap out. A successful strawweight debut for Caliari, who has her first UFC victory to boot.

The Official Result
Nicolle Caliari def. Shauna Bannon via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) R3 3:08
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Angelo picks Nicolle Caliari, heavily criticizing Shauna Bannon's skills, especially her BJJ. He believes Caliari can get the fight to the ground and will have a massive advantage there. He calls Bannon one of the worst fighters on the roster and expects Caliari to win easily.

"I'm gonna pick Nicole Caliari here because she should be able to get this fight to the ground and then on the ground will have a giant advantage."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Big Brady picks Nicolle Caliari confidently, citing her wrestling and judo advantage over Shauna Bannon. He notes Bannon's poor takedown defense and lack of power, and expects Caliari to exploit this on the ground. He predicts a second-round submission, as Bannon has shown vulnerability to grappling.

submission in round 2
"I like Kaliari here. I actually think she finds a sub in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Cody is confident in Nicolle Caliari, noting that Shauna Bannon has poor takedown defense (40%) and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Caliari is willing to shoot takedowns and has good grappling. Bannon is a point-based karate stylist who relies on distance, but Caliari can close the distance, take her down, and dominate on the ground. Cody expects Caliari to get her first UFC win.

"Kiari, good spot to get her first win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Connor picks Caliari, agreeing with Zane. He notes Bannon is not an athlete and struggles to generate power, while Caliari is a physical powerhouse. Bannon's only wins are over other non-athletes, and she was dominated by Sam Hughes.

Same odds as Zane. Connor calls Bannon's background 'traditional martial arts in the most derogatory way'.
"Yeah, I would think so. Bannon's only wins are two other non-athletes, Puja Tomar, Alice Ardalone, and Mita Grusander and Invicta, and she's lost to physical powerhouses like Bruno Brazil and Sam."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Nicolle Caliari

Caliari is a good offensive wrestler with decent cardio, and Bannon's takedown defense and ground game are very bad. Bannon will have the advantage on the feet but will likely spend most of the fight on the ground. Caliari should win easily, but the odds are too short to bet.

Under 2.5 rounds at 3.3 (+230) is a possible gamble, but not recommended.
"Caliari is the favorite because she's a good offensive wrestler with decent enough cardio to push a decent pace and shoot a decent enough number of takedowns for the full three rounds."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Lucrative James picks Nicolle Caliari, believing she can take Bannon down and dominate on the mat. He notes Bannon's vulnerability to wrestlers and Caliari's toughness and power. He predicts a decision win for Caliari, possibly with a submission.

"Nicole to win the fight via takedowns, maybe via submission, but ultimately I'll pick decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

The host believes Caliari's physicality and grappling will be the difference, as she can grind out takedowns and control the fight. However, he is hesitant to trust the chalk on Caliari at -240, noting Bannon's striking style could cause problems. He predicts Caliari by decision but prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.

under 2.5 rounds (+260 to +300)
"I think Caliari will be successful in terms of getting to her grappling and utilizing her physicality and I think that'll lead to her continuously landing takedowns and I think she ends up grinding this fight out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

The host picks Montaño (Nicolle Caliari) over Shauna Bannon, citing Montaño's judo and physicality to drag the fight into uncomfortable positions for Bannon, leading to a decision win. He is surprised Montaño is such a heavy favorite but acknowledges the low level of both fighters.

"I'm going to go with the Montaño side of things as I believe her judo and her physicality will allow her to drag this fight into positions where Bannon will find it uncomfortable leading to Montaño winning this fight by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Paul also picks Nicolle Caliari, noting that he will never back Shauna Bannon again after she was knocked down by Puya Tomar. He believes Caliari can mix in wrestling and keep it competitive on the feet, while Bannon's strikes lack power. He parlayed Caliari with Daniel Santos earlier in the week.

Parlayed Caliari with Daniel Santos at -143.
"Be a cold day in Missouri before I back Shauna Bannon again."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Zane picks Caliari because she is a physical powerhouse who should bully Bannon. Bannon is a non-athlete with no power, coming from a traditional martial arts background, and has lost to physical powerhouses. Caliari has fought tough competition and hung with them.

Odds: Caliari opened -225, now -235; Bannon opened +190, now +200. Zane calls Bannon 'bad' and says Caliari should 'just wreck' her.
"And, you know, so yeah, she's lost to pretty good people and she's, she should just wreck Chana Bannon."
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carli Judice 1 109 of 225 48% 117 of 235 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Nicolle Caliari 0 32 of 101 31% 35 of 104 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carli Judice 0 38 of 78 48% 44 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Nicolle Caliari 0 11 of 40 27% 13 of 42 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:48
2 Carli Judice 0 47 of 108 43% 49 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Nicolle Caliari 0 16 of 51 31% 17 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Carli Judice 1 24 of 39 61% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Nicolle Caliari 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carli Judice 109 of 225 48% 85 of 193 24 of 32 0 of 0 96 of 210 10 of 12 3 of 3
Nicolle Caliari 32 of 101 31% 26 of 85 3 of 12 3 of 4 30 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carli Judice 38 of 78 48% 26 of 62 12 of 16 0 of 0 32 of 70 5 of 7 1 of 1
Nicolle Caliari 11 of 40 27% 8 of 32 2 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Carli Judice 47 of 108 43% 41 of 101 6 of 7 0 of 0 46 of 107 1 of 1 0 of 0
Nicolle Caliari 16 of 51 31% 13 of 44 1 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carli Judice 24 of 39 61% 18 of 30 6 of 9 0 of 0 18 of 33 4 of 4 2 of 2
Nicolle Caliari 5 of 10 50% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nicolle Caliari vs. Carli Judice
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Judice (-278), Caliari (+225)

Round 1
It’s time for another pay-per-view, this time with no divisional belt on top. While there may be a “BMF Title” exchange at night’s end, the promotion has already shown that it can be taken and bestowed to any match that needs a marketing boost. Additionally, its holder does not surrender it on a loss like a linear belt, making it a shiny, expensive trophy that tends to involve a celebrity draping it around the victor. That celebrity tonight will likely be Lil Wayne. Before all that, we have a bakers’ dozen matchups to plow through. Flyweights will be first to the cage, as head kick aficionado Judice (4-2, 1-1 UFC), who trains out of Headkicks MMA, battles Brazil’s Caliari (8-3, 0-1 UFC). The ladies will receive oversight from referee Bassel Mahgoub to start things off, and they bump gloves to seal the cage around them.
Caliari gets right to business, chasing after “Crispy” with a combination of punches and ending it with a head kick. She pitches a similar flurry when Judice backpedals to defend herself. Judice parries the worst of the attacks and jabs out with her lead fist and front kick. Caliari crashes forward with a left hand, and Judice responds with a body kick and an overhand left. Judice splits the guard with a second punch, and she steps in to stun Caliari with a knee. Caliari responds with a tackling takedown, dragging the American to her knees for a moment. Judice wall-walks to get upright despite Caliari clinging around her waist from behind, and she fights off a few mat return efforts while leaned on the cage. The fans are quick to express restlessness, letting the flyweights have it with boos until Judice breaks away. When they reset, Judice jams Caliari in the jaw with a sharp knee.
Caliari shakes it off and pursues a half-baked takedown, and Judice stops her subsequent head-and-arm throw to put Caliari on her face. Caliari now is the one having to work to her feet, and Judice frames off by pegging her with elbows and a knee. Caliari takes a few steps back, and Judice gives chase with a front kick and a barrage of fists. Caliari tries to respond with power strikes, reddening up Judice’s nose, but she finds herself dealing with the counters that quickly come. Caliari rushes after a takedown, and Judice slings her to the floor defensively and hovers over her before standing up. Caliari thinks about another, but she is stonewalled and takes jabs on the nose. Justice sticks and moves, walking into a big right hand but giving Caliari a clean left down the middle and following it with a powerful knee. Caliari ties her up, but Judice turns her around and holds her there to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice

Round 2
The flyweights bop fists to get going, where Judice is quick to fight behind her sharp jab. She targets the damaged right eye of the Brazilian with it, working on it to make it swell more with every blow. Caliari takes a body kick and tries to catch it to get a takedown, but Judice recoils her limb and keeps peppering the face with jabs and quick follow-ups. Judice slips to the left and tags Caliari in the swollen eye socket, and she is rarely missing her strikes while her volume easily triples that of her adversary. Judice is basically engaging in target practice, with Caliari offering little resistance more than a takedown shot. Judice shuts it down quickly and pushes Caliari to the wall, where she knees her in the midsection several times. Caliari races forward for a takedown, and Judice pushes her to the floor before Caliari can even go after a leg.
Caliari stands up and starts swinging, clipping “Crispy” at the end of a left hand. She fires off a low kick, and this draws a combination in response from Judice. Caliari is putting more behind her punches, while Judice is more than happy touching her, pop pop pop and she slides to the side. The thumping sounds that echo through the building are the ferocious knees that Judice is planting on the torso, and Caliari takes them flush without flinching. Judice potshots her swelling foe with ease, ducking the counters and otherwise playing matador when Caliari winds up. Judice fakes a knee and strings together a series of punches, while dancing out of the way of the inevitable counters. Judice lets go with a high kick that is blocked, and her punches fly through the guard and onto the Brazilian’s jaw. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice

Round 3
There is one last glove touch to commence the final frame, and Caliari is wide-eyed and aware of the oncoming fire that she is about to receive. This allows her to dodge the nastiest of what Judice hurls at her, but the sheer volume from the American makes it difficult to avoid everything. Caliari plants her feet and loops a big left hand at her foe, only for Judice to ignore it and dig a few body shots. Caliari crashes the pocket in pursuit of a takedown, and she manages to ground her foe for a second. Judice explodes to her feet and starts boxing up Caliari. The combinations flow freely from “Crispy,” who is roasting her opponent from punching range. She backs Caliari up to the fencing, practically hitting a 125-pound heavy bag at this point, and
she lines up a knee up the middle. This time, Caliari ducks down for a takedown shot, and the contact is immediate and devastating. For one wild moment, Judice channels her inner Hannibal Lecter, feasting on Caliari’s liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti. Somewhere in the world, Jason DeLucia screams due to phantom pains from his three encounters against Bas Rutten in years past. Judice has to do little more but drive down two academic hammerfists that make Mahgoub hurry up and stop the fight.
Just like that, Judice has earned her fifth pro victory, with all five of them coming by knockout.

The Official Result
Carli Judice def. Nicolle Caliari R3 1:30 via TKO (Knee to the Body)
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Angelo picks Carli Judice as the better striker who will do more damage and try to finish. He notes that Judice can be taken down but scrambles well, while Caliari is a busy grappler who can lose positions by being too aggressive. He also factors in the Louisiana commission, which may value takedowns more, but still favors Judice's striking.

Mentions that if odds continue to widen, a plus 3.5 bet may be worth considering.
"Carly Judice is going to be the pick. I think she's the better striker. I think she'll do a little more damage."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carli Judice

Big Brady favors Carli Judice due to superior striking, higher volume, and better defense. He acknowledges Nicolle Caliari's grappling and black belt but doubts she can get takedowns or outstrike Judice. He predicts Judice cruises to a decision win if she stuffs takedowns.

Judice by decision
"I think Judice probably should go out there and win this pretty pretty easily. ... I'm going Carly Jice to win this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carli Judice

The host expects Judice to manage distance, utilize volume and output, and pick apart Caliari from distance en route to a decision victory. This suggests a clear confidence in Judice's ability to control the fight and win on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting Judice to man manage her distance, utilize her volume and output, and pick up our Caliari from distance on route to a decision victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carli Judice

The MMA Guru picks Carli Judice based on a common opponent comparison with Carrier Kate. He notes that Carrier Kate clearly beat Nicolle Caliari but was robbed by the judges, while Judice arguably beat Carrier Kate on the Contender Series. He also highlights Judice's height and reach advantages (5'7" vs 5'3", 68" vs 62" reach) and believes she will be better at dealing with Caliari's takedowns. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO, citing her momentum from a headkick KO.

"I'm going to go with Kari Judice getting this one done over Nicole Caliari."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ernesta Kareckaitė 0 95 of 226 42% 126 of 266 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:33
Nicolle Caliari 0 67 of 166 40% 86 of 194 3 of 14 21% 0 0 3:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ernesta Kareckaitė 0 27 of 63 42% 35 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Nicolle Caliari 0 21 of 41 51% 25 of 45 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:49
2 Ernesta Kareckaitė 0 36 of 86 41% 45 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Nicolle Caliari 0 24 of 66 36% 28 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ernesta Kareckaitė 0 32 of 77 41% 46 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nicolle Caliari 0 22 of 59 37% 33 of 77 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ernesta Kareckaitė 95 of 226 42% 77 of 199 18 of 26 0 of 1 87 of 213 8 of 13 0 of 0
Nicolle Caliari 67 of 166 40% 36 of 120 22 of 35 9 of 11 63 of 156 3 of 5 1 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ernesta Kareckaitė 27 of 63 42% 19 of 54 8 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 57 5 of 6 0 of 0
Nicolle Caliari 21 of 41 51% 13 of 30 5 of 7 3 of 4 18 of 38 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Ernesta Kareckaitė 36 of 86 41% 31 of 76 5 of 9 0 of 1 34 of 80 2 of 6 0 of 0
Nicolle Caliari 24 of 66 36% 14 of 52 6 of 9 4 of 5 24 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ernesta Kareckaitė 32 of 77 41% 27 of 69 5 of 8 0 of 0 31 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
Nicolle Caliari 22 of 59 37% 9 of 38 11 of 19 2 of 2 21 of 52 0 of 2 1 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nicolle Caliari vs. Ernesta Kareckaite

Round 1
Two women with significantly different styles will clash as the prelims roll on at the 125-pound range. Despite losing her first UFC outing, Kareckaite (5-1-1, 0-1 UFC) comes in as a fairly heavy betting favorite against Brazilian finisher Caliari (8-2, 0-0 UFC) in the latter’s first stint in the Octagon. The Lithuanian will have 15 minutes or less to prove that a bet on her is worthwhile, and Caliari knows just one mistake is all she needs to get the job done. Referee Kerry Hatley draws the charge for this matchup, one that opens up as the ladies clap hands. Kareckaite immediately try to take advantage of her significant reach advantage, pawing out jabs and getting met with an early leg kick. Kareckaite comes up just short with a one-two, and Caliari pushes her away and gets off a low kick. Kareckaite strikes her way into a clinch, and Caliari pulls away and gets caught with a few punches from the Lithuanian. Caliari fires back, and she connects with a few punches and chains them into a takedown attempt. Kareckaite stands upright and turns her around, but Caliari is singularly focused on the grappling. Caliari sneaks in a few uppercuts before deciding to separate, and she ducks a right hand to tag the longer woman with quick strikes. Kareckaite reaches her with a long right hand, and she strings several more together in rapid succession as Caliari’s eyes go wide. The Brazilian looks to slow things down with a takedown attempt, and Kareckaite bucks her way out of it and pops Caliari with a right hand. Caliari is ready to bang when the attempt fails, as she uses her fast hands to set up tackling takedown efforts. Caliari drags Kareckaite’s leg far away to force her to do a split, and she briefly grounds the Lithuanian as a result. Kareckaite pops right back up, and Caliari is tightly wrapped around her as they clinch. The two trade knees and hand-fight until they break apart. Caliari lands first, Kareckaite counters, and the former gives her something back to think about. Kareckaite rifles off long, straight punches, and a head kick is blocked but the front kick that follows is not. Kareckaite drills Caliari with a slew of punches until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari

Round 2
The ladies tap their hands together before getting going, and Kareckaite picks up where she leads off with long strikes. She does not keep a solid defense, as Caliari meets her with blistering elbows and short but effective shots in response. Caliari ducks a right hand to snap Kareckaite’s head back with a right hand, and this forces Kareckaite to clinch with her to blink out the surprisingly heavy blow. Caliari backs her foe off with her hands, and she gets smacked with a left hand and shoots in for her own takedown. Kareckaite stifles it, circles around in hopes of taking the back and settles for Caliari to roll to her back. The Brazilian clings to Kareckaite, attempting to control Kareckaite’s arms and get hold of a submission. Kareckaite escapes before a leglock materializes, and when she stands right in front of Caliari, the two trade leather. Kareckaite goes to the body to break things up, and Caliari follows suit and rips two left hands to the liver. Kareckaite takes the punches and hurls a few back, but Caliari’s appear more effective when they exchange. The Brazilian goes over the top with a kick, and her left hand continues to score on Kareckaite’s midsection. Kareckaite counters a leg kick with a right hand, and both women suffer damage to their noses as they connect one after the other. Caliari fails on a trip takedown, and she sells out for an uppercut and gets countered hard. Kareckaite strings four punches together before Caliari can pay her back, but Caliari is more than willing to trade violently. They take turns punching one another in the face, defense at a premium, and two hooks from Caliari get Kareckaite’s attention before the round ends with a failed takedown.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite

Round 3
After a speedy glove touch, the flyweights resume throwing hands. Caliari walks through the long, rangy punches to scoop up uppercuts. Caliari mixes up a handful of headshots with a couple to the body, and they go tit-for-tat as they appear to be enjoying the striking affair. Kareckaite puts her fist on the chin again and again, and she lets Caliari clinch with her so she can pound her with a knee. Caliari hammers her opponent with a left to the body, and Kareckaite is right there in front of her clubbing her with a right hand. Kareckaite stops a takedown attempt, partially thanks to a few fence grabs, and Caliari hooks a leg around hers to try to wrench her down. Caliari again strips the leg away like before, but Kareckaite gathers herself before having to deal with a split. The Lithuanian, breaking away from the clinch, does not stay away from Caliari for long. Caliari puts a few one-twos on the jaw and dives after a takedown, but the latter does not get there. Caliari keeps working the body, and a number of right hands have drawn some swelling on Kareckaite’s left eyebrow. Caliari fakes a takedown to deliver a knee to the body, and she times Kareckaite lifting her left up to tackle her to the canvas. Caliari is active when on top, but most of her strikes are blocked or deflected. Kareckaite slugs it out from her back, and the two beat on one another right until the match’s conclusion.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)

The Official Result
Ernesta Kareckaite def. Nicolle Caliari via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ernesta Kareckaitė

Angelo picks Ernesta Kareckaitė, citing her superior striking, footwork, and length. He notes that Nicolle Caliari's takedowns are mediocre, and while Ernesta's takedown defense is also mediocre, he expects the striking battle to favor Ernesta. He suggests that a plus 3.5 spread bet on Nicolle could be valuable if the odds are plus money, as he sees the fight going to a close decision. He does not expect a finish.

Potential bet on Nicolle Caliari plus 3.5 if plus money; fight goes to decision
"I have to pick aresta but similar to the rant I went on with a minus 900 fat M clein ernesta should not be a 3 to1 favorite here and a plus three and a half on Nicole could actually be a decent bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

Big Brady disagrees with the odds, thinking this is a close fight. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's size, reach, cardio, and volume, but believes Caliari has the grappling advantage and can land bigger shots. He notes Caliari has improved her grappling since her contender series win and has power. He predicts Caliari wins by decision, using wrestling and grappling to win minutes.

"I'm actually going to take the the big dog here in caliari to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ernesta Kareckaitė

Cody picks Kareckaitė but with low confidence, noting her high volume striking but poor takedown defense. He sees Caliari's submission threat but believes Kareckaitė's cardio and experience give her the edge. He advises passing on this fight.

"the gun to my head pick is ernesta simply because we've seen more of her in the UFC"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ernesta Kareckaitė

Daniel notes Kareckaitė's length and volume will be a problem for the shorter Caliari, but Caliari could get takedowns and grind. He thinks Kareckaitė will pick her apart at range, but the -260 odds offer no value. He picks the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

dog-or-pass situation
"I'm going to pick the favorite actually to kind of pick her apart a little bit"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ernesta Kareckaitė

Kareckaitė's 6-inch height and 9-inch reach advantage will allow her to keep Caliari at the end of her punches, land more volume, and win on the scorecards. Both earned UFC contracts via the Contender Series last season.

"I believe that was see kiskat do a good job in terms of utilizing her 6in height and 9-in reach advantage to keep Kar at the end of her punches uh land more output more volume and end up winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ernesta Kareckaitė

Paul also picks Kareckaitė but is not confident. He notes her volume and physicality but acknowledges Caliari's submission game. He says he doesn't care for this fight and would rather pass.

"I don't care for this fight at all"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nicolle Caliari

The Guru picks Caliari, citing her Brazilian background, consistent finishes, and good submission skills. He notes Kareckaitė is a rangy kickboxer but thinks Caliari will get takedowns and a submission. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's youth (26) and win over Kari Judice but sides with Caliari's grappling.

"I'm going to have to side towards Nico calari to get this one done"