Modestas Bukauskas

Cody reluctantly picks Modestas Bukauskas, noting that Christian Edwards has shown poor durability, heart, and grappling. He acknowledges that Bukauskas is not a high-level fighter but has fought better competition. However, he is not confident at -280 and considers it a dog-or-pass fight. He suggests Bukauskas by decision or an over 2.5 rounds prop.

Bukauskas is better everywhere and Edwards is on short notice. Bukauskas should win easily, but the odds are too short to bet. No interest in fight spread or over/under.

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his takedown defense and power. He thinks Nikita Krylov is the better overall fighter but has a weak chin, and Bukauskas only needs one clean shot. He warns Bukauskas not to engage in grappling like he did against Paul Craig.

Big Brady thinks Krylov is washed, citing his age (33 but 41 fights), long layoff, and two recent KO losses where he looked old and hesitant. He notes Krylov has stopped grappling, which was his best attribute. Bukauskas has been improving, and Brady expects him to knock out Krylov in the second round.

Cody confidently picks Bukauskas, arguing that Krylov is washed after a two-year layoff and two first-round KO losses. He notes Bukauskas's defensive wrestling and cardio should allow him to survive the first round and take over. Cody believes Bukauskas's ring generalship and durability will be enough to edge out a win.

Connor is sad about Krylov's decline, noting his chin is gone after two consecutive knockouts. He observes that Krylov looks panicked and flailing in recent fights, while Bukauskas has been improving, becoming more composed and taking opportunities. Connor believes Bukauskas's accuracy and incidental power could lead to a knockout, especially given Krylov's compromised durability.

Daniel Vreeland picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by knockout. He notes that Krylov has lost two straight by first-round KO and appears washed, while Bukauskas is on a hot streak and brimming with confidence. Vreeland believes Bukauskas is catching Krylov at the perfect time and will get the biggest win of his career.

James picks Krylov as an underdog, believing the line is too wide due to recency bias. He notes Krylov's superior skill set and grappling, and that Bukauskas has struggled with grappling. He also mentions inside info that Bukauskas's training camp has been disrupted. However, he acknowledges Krylov's chin might be shot.

The host picks Bukauskas by knockout, believing his improved striking and defensive grappling will nullify Krylov's takedowns. He notes Krylov is on a two-fight losing streak and may be desperate, but Bukauskas's recent form and training with top heavyweights give him the edge. He loves the -140 line but has slight pause due to Bukauskas's past bonehead mistakes.

Paul leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing Krylov's recent durability issues and poor form. He notes Bukauskas is a generalist who can outwork Krylov, especially if the fight goes past the first round. Paul is hesitant due to Bukauskas's wrestling vulnerability but believes Krylov's decline is real.

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Nikita Krylov's charging style and chin. He notes Bukauskas's growing confidence and counter-striking ability, predicting a KO in round two after an initial scrap.

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas confidently, citing his versatile striking, takedown defense, and power. He believes Bukauskas will chop down Craig's legs and avoid his submission threats. He notes Craig's poor takedown entries and mediocre striking. He was swayed by Bukauskas' hype video showing his comeback.

Big Brady picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's recent point-fighting style. He believes Bukauskas can outstrike Craig from the outside and avoid his guard. He expects a boring decision win for Bukauskas, as Craig no longer wrestles or pulls guard effectively.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bukauskas. He notes that Paul Craig is vulnerable everywhere—standing, on his back, and even on top—and that Bukauskas is a solid fighter who can win without engaging on the ground. He emphasizes that Craig's fragility makes him likely to get hurt in exchanges.

The host believes Bukauskas can utilize his striking advantage to keep Craig at bay, touch him up from distance, and avoid overextending to prevent takedowns. He expects Bukauskas to win on the scorecards.

The Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's lack of improvement in standup over a decade. He believes Bukauskas' pressure and straight rights will catch Craig early. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Bukauskas' ability to cut off the cage and land devastating shots.

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas as the more technically sound and well-rounded fighter, but acknowledges Ion Cuțelaba is unpredictable and dangerous. He notes Cuțelaba has power and offensive takedowns but no takedown defense. Angelo mentions a potential bet on Cuțelaba inside the distance with decision no action, but his pick is Bukauskas. He emphasizes that picks are not bets and he wouldn't bet on Bukauskas.

Big Brady thinks Cuțelaba has multiple paths to victory: he hits harder, is more durable, and can mix in wrestling. He notes Bukauskas is chinny, hittable, and has poor takedown defense. He believes Cuțelaba's losses have come against high-level or dangerous opponents, while Bukauskas is neither. He predicts Cuțelaba wins by decision, landing bigger shots and mixing in wrestling.

The host believes Bukauskas is in the best form of his career and will thwart Cuțelaba's power striking and grappling. He expects Bukauskas to use his cardio, technical striking, and improved grappling to win on the scorecards.

Angelo picks Bukauskas but is hesitant because he sees Cerqueira as dangerous and unproven. He notes Bukauskas has been knocked out four times and had trouble with Marcin Prachnio, while Cerqueira has 10 stoppages in 11 wins but was knocked out in his UFC debut. He says there's no world where he bets on Bukauskas at -350 and will leave this fight alone.

Big Brady picks Raffael Cerqueira despite being a complete unknown with only two fights available to watch. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas is low-volume, lacks power, and has never looked like a -310 favorite against anyone. He believes Cerqueira has a significant advantage on the ground as a BJJ black belt training with Guto Almeida, and that Bukauskas's technical striking advantage is negated by his low output. He calls this a '100% gambler fight' and picks Cerqueira by knockout, though he admits the fight is awful.

The host believes the line is too wide but expects Bukauskas's striking style to shut down Cerqueira's BJJ and Muay Thai. He predicts Bukauskas will chip away and win on the scorecards.

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing his youth and well-roundedness. He notes that Prachnio has power but is chinny and can be knockout or bust. Angelo expects Bukauskas to win and hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line to bet on.

Cody picks Marcin Prachnio, citing his volume striking and improved cardio. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas has low output and has looked unimpressive in his UFC return, with close fights against lower-level competition. Cody believes Prachnio's pressure and output will overwhelm Bukauskas, and that he can win by decision or even knockout.

Daniel thinks Marcin Prachnio has a higher work rate and will outwork Modestas Bukauskas. He notes both have poor chins but Prachnio pushes a higher pace. He picks the underdog Prachnio.

Paul leans towards Prachnio, noting that Bukauskas has low volume and no real power. He believes Prachnio's volume advantage (5.61 significant strikes per minute vs 3.28) will be key, and that the fight likely goes to a decision where Prachnio edges it. However, he is not fully confident and may pass on betting.

Angelo picks Petrino but is not super confident. He notes Petrino is dangerous with power and athleticism, but can be sloppy and dropped. Bukauskas is a good striker with decent takedown defense. Angelo thinks Petrino's relentless aggression will win him the fight, but he leaves Petrino out of parlays because Bukauskas could play spoiler at plus money.

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by knockout in the second round. He criticizes Bukauskas as a boring point fighter and praises Petrino's evolving skillset, including takedowns and cardio. He believes Petrino can win by any method but prefers the knockout. He notes Petrino's physical strength and ability to go 15 minutes.

Daniel Levi picks Vitor Petrino, describing him as a physical freak with one-punch knockout power, strong wrestling, and submission skills. He notes that Petrino is still evolving and should be able to steamroll Bukauskas. Levi points out Bukauskas' poor striking defense, with his chin often in the air, and his history of being knocked out. He sees Bukauskas as a low-volume kickboxer who can be overwhelmed. Levi expects Petrino to finish the fight, possibly in the second round.

James is quite confident in Petrino, stating he has all the upside in every aspect of the fight: knockout, submission, and decision. He believes Petrino deserves to be a big favorite and that Bukauskas' only path to victory is if Petrino gasses or if it becomes a low-volume point striking affair, which he does not see happening. He does not specify a method of victory but is confident Petrino gets the win.

Petrino has shown a solid gas tank for light heavyweight and is working on his jiu-jitsu, as seen in his last fight. He has speed, power, and explosiveness that will trouble Bukauskas. Petrino can either knock him out or use his grappling advantage to take him down and grind him out. The -200 range is a good spot to jump in.

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas because he is the more technical striker and this is mostly a striking matchup. He notes that if Zac Pauga could wrestle effectively, he'd be the easy pick, but Pauga hasn't shown that wrestling in the UFC. However, Angelo acknowledges there is a world where Pauga holds Bukauskas against the cage for 15 minutes and wins a decision, so he does not place a bet.

Big Brady picks Zac Pauga to win by decision, but he is very low on both fighters. He criticizes Bukauskas for low volume and power, and Pauga for taking Jordan Wright to a decision, which he calls a terrible look. However, Pauga throws more volume and has solid cardio. Brady thinks Pauga can hold Bukauskas against the cage and potentially take him down, as Bukauskas has struggled with takedown defense in the past. He expects a boring fight with Pauga winning a close decision.

Cody is confident in Bukauskas, citing his speed, striking advantage, and improved cardio since returning to the UFC. He notes that Pauga's only notable win is a decision over Jordan Wright, which was uninspiring, and that Pauga is 35 with only three years of pro experience. Cody thinks Bukauskas will outwork Pauga and possibly get a TKO in the second or third round.

Connor picks Bukauskas, acknowledging his limited boxing but noting his athleticism and size. He believes Bukauskas has improved his aggression and output, as seen in the Tyson Pedro fight. Connor expects Bukauskas to use his reach and movement to outwork Pauga, who lacks dynamic speed. He thinks Bukauskas will win by decision or late stoppage.

Daniel Levi leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing his size, length, and experience. He notes Pauga's greenness and that the UFC may be setting up Bukauskas as a prospect. He thinks Bukauskas could win by knockout. However, he is not interested in betting at -200 and sees it as a pass at current odds.

Pauga has a good enough striking and overall MMA game to tie up Bukauskas in the clinch, drag him to the ground, and do damage from top. He has good cardio to maintain this for 15 minutes. Bukauskas is overhyped due to recency bias from his win over Tyson Pedro. Pauga is a solid underdog at plus 165. Pauga wins by decision.

Paul agrees, noting that Pauga's win over Jordan Wright was terrible and that he will be picking against Pauga for the rest of eternity. He thinks Bukauskas is younger, more experienced, and has rebuilt himself after a knee injury. Paul expects Bukauskas to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing a massive advantage at range on the feet against Zac Pauga. He notes Pauga was on one of the worst seasons of TUF and lacks skill at range, while Bukauskas is technical with good footwork. He also mentions Bukauskas has improved since his first UFC stint, with a win over Tyson Pedro on short notice and a controversial loss to Khalil Rountree. He believes Bukauskas is reborn and will continue his momentum.

Angelo picks Tyson Pedro despite acknowledging the line movement from -1000 to -250, which he attributes to sharp bettors. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas is the better striker with solid takedown defense, but Pedro's grappling and power could be decisive. However, he is not confident enough to bet on Pedro at the current odds, though he may include him in a Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry.

Big Brady is not a fan of either fighter but thinks Pedro has enough power to knock out Bukauskas, who has been knocked out multiple times. He expects Bukauskas to be winning until he gets caught. He predicts a first-round knockout for Pedro but says he's staying away from betting.

Cody picks Pedro but is not confident due to the -240 price and Pedro's untested competition since returning. He notes Pedro's striking looks improved and his grappling may have gotten better during time off. He thinks Bukauskas is one-dimensional and Pedro can stay outside and be aggressive. However, he calls Pedro a fraud and won't bet him.

Connor picks Pedro, believing that his improved feinting will be enough to confuse Bukauskas and allow Pedro to pick up wins he should be getting. He thinks Pedro's feints will throw a huge wrench in Bukauskas's game, as Bukauskas tends to bite on feints and is not good at responding to pressure. Connor acknowledges that Pedro hasn't faced a decent boxer yet, but he thinks the feints are a significant improvement.

Bukauskas is the better technical striker and has shown he can be competitive at UFC level (close fight with Mihajlovic). Pedro's wins over Villanueva and Hunsucker are over low-level competition. Pedro's wrestling is unimpressive and he gassed against Shogun. Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and outpoint Pedro. The odds opened at -1000 for Pedro, creating value on Bukauskas at +600. Durability is a slight concern but Bukauskas should win a decision.

Paul picks Pedro but dislikes the -240 line. He notes Pedro has never landed a takedown in the UFC and his wins are over low-level opponents. He thinks Bukauskas could pull an upset but Pedro is the official pick. He won't bet it.

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Modestas Bukauskas, noting Bukauskas's recent KO win but concerns about his chin and taking the fight on short notice. He believes Pedro's leg kicks and confidence will lead to a first-round KO, as Bukauskas has been chinned before.

Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree to win by first-round knockout, but with low confidence due to Rountree's inconsistency. He notes Rountree has tremendous power but sometimes fails to show up (e.g., loss to Marcin Prachnio). Bukauskas is hittable (50% striking defense) and chinny, making him a good target for Rountree's power. However, Brady is not betting Rountree because of the unpredictability.

Cody picks Bukauskas but suggests waiting for a live line after the first round. He notes Rountree's power and first-round threat, but thinks Bukauskas has better cardio and reach, and can survive the initial onslaught. He expects Bukauskas to take over in later rounds if he survives round one.

I don't trust Rountree in a fight that goes long because his cardio fades, but he's dangerous early with fast hands and hard kicks. Bukauskas has a shaky chin and is hittable. Rountree's knockdown rate is about 4.5%, and most of his wins come in round one. I think there's a 25-30% chance he puts Bukauskas out early. The plus 500 on Rountree round one is good value. I'm not betting the moneyline because if it goes to decision, Bukauskas likely wins.

Paul is uncertain, calling it a landmine fight. He notes Rountree's inconsistency and Bukauskas's defensive issues. He mentions Rountree by KO at +250 as a possible play but doesn't commit to a pick.

Big Brady picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oleksiejczuk's early power and body work, and that Bukauskas has poor striking defense and is hittable. He acknowledges Bukauskas' cardio and ability to come back late if Oleksiejczuk gasses, but believes the finish will come early. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a better bet than the moneyline.

Cody picks Oleksiejczuk but prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop. He notes that Oleksiejczuk has a lot of power and comes out aggressively, but his cardio is poor. He thinks Bukauskas has a tall man stance and suspect chin, so Oleksiejczuk will likely finish him early or gas out and get finished himself. The under 2.5 rounds covers both scenarios.

Daniel Levi picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to knock out Modestas Bukauskas early. He notes that Oleksiejczuk has better boxing and technique, but worries about his cardio and chin after the OSP fight. Levi believes Bukauskas is a big boy who can come on late if Oleksiejczuk slows down, but he thinks Oleksiejczuk will finish it before that happens. He mentions Oleksiejczuk's size advantage and Bukauskas's tendency to get finished in the first round.

The host leans toward Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by second-round KO. He praises Oleksiejczuk's pressure, body work, and durability, but notes his poor takedown defense. He thinks Bukauskas will struggle to get him down and that Oleksiejczuk's striking will overwhelm him. He wants to see improved grappling from Oleksiejczuk before betting him confidently, but still expects a finish on the feet.

Paul picks Oleksiejczuk, citing his power and good strike selection. He notes that Bukauskas has been knocked out before and has poor defense. He thinks Oleksiejczuk will win by knockout, but also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop. He is confident in the pick.

Big Brady is extremely confident in Crute, calling it one of his most confident picks on the card. He highlights Crute's excellent wrestling (81% takedown accuracy) and BJJ black belt, while Bukauskas has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a first-round submission.

Big Brady picks Modestas Bukauskas but is not confident. He notes Michailidis is coming up a weight class on short notice, which is a big disadvantage. He thinks Michailidis is the more talented fighter and dangerous early, but his cardio is poor. He predicts Bukauskas will weather the storm and finish in the third round.

Daniel Levi picks Modestas Bukauskas, noting his karate style and ability to pop back up from takedowns. He believes Andreas Michailidis goes super hard in the first round but fades, and that Bukauskas will come back to knock him out in the second or third round.