Dan Hooker

Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his non-stop pressure, well-timed takedowns, and heavy top control. He notes that Dan Hooker's takedown defense is solid overall but fails against better wrestlers, and BSD is relentless. Angelo acknowledges Hooker's heart and striking but questions his motivation and game-planning. He expects a war and thinks BSD's style will overwhelm Hooker.

Big Brady is confident in Benoît Saint Denis, believing there's a big levels difference on the mat. He notes Dan Hooker has looked poor off his back against wrestlers like Islam Makhachev and Armen Serukian, and Saint Denis will take him down and submit him. He also thinks Saint Denis can knock Hooker out, as Arnold Allen and Michael Chandler have done. Brady predicts a second-round submission.

Cody is switching his pick to Dan Hooker as a value play, despite acknowledging the risks. He notes that Saint Denis is hittable and has shown defensive flaws, and that Hooker has faced elite competition and has the toughness to survive takedowns. He expects a close fight and thinks Hooker can win a decision or even get a finish if Saint Denis tires. However, he admits he doesn't love the pick and it will be near the bottom of his parlay.

Connor picks Hooker because he believes Saint Denis falls apart when put on the back foot and is not a clean finisher. He thinks Hooker can survive the early onslaught and rally back, as Saint Denis has never shown an ability to withstand a comeback. However, he acknowledges that Hooker is not as durable as Poirier and could get run over early, making it a 50/50 fight.

Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Saint Denis, predicting he will run through Hooker and finish him. He believes Hooker is past his prime and overranked, while Saint Denis is a violent finisher with relentless pressure and a strong ground game. Vreeland even bet on Saint Denis at minus 250 and made a bold prediction that Hooker will never win another UFC fight.

James picks BSD to win, acknowledging his bias as a New Zealander rooting for Hooker. He believes BSD's wrestling and grappling will be too much for Hooker at this stage, and that the fight won't go to decision. He notes Hooker is the better striker but BSD can land takedowns and submissions. James is hesitant because he wants Hooker to win but thinks BSD's path is more likely.

Saint Denis is a talented grappler with good finishing ability, likely to get a submission within the first two rounds. Hooker has decent defensive grappling but may struggle with Saint Denis's smothering style. The host prefers the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at -220 over the moneyline chalk. Hooker's striking and cardio could be factors if he survives early, but Saint Denis is expected to get the submission.

Paul hates the -350 price on Saint Denis and prefers the fight not to go the distance, as Saint Denis fights are almost always finishes. He leans toward Hooker if forced to pick a moneyline side, citing Saint Denis's tendency to get hit and Hooker's durability. He also mentions the time zone difference as a potential factor.

The Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis, agreeing with the odds. He highlights Saint Denis's grappling, power, and aggression, predicting he will submit Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's recent damage and broken nose, and believes Saint Denis's pressure and body kicks will be too much.

Angelo leans Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker, but calls the -550 odds insane. He notes Tsarukyan's wrestling and striking are elite, but Hooker has heart and takedown defense, as seen against Gamrot. Tsarukyan should get takedowns and control Hooker, but Hooker could make it a dogfight. Angelo suggests Hooker at +5.5 is a decent bet.

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan (Magomed Ankalaev) by third-round KO, citing his championship caliber and youth. He notes Hooker's struggles against top competition and expects Ankalaev to finish him via TKO on the mat or a big shot on the feet.

Cody picks Arman Tsarukyan but is hesitant due to the betting line. He notes Arman has the grappling edge and is younger, but Dan Hooker thrives in five-round fights and has a decent get-up game. Cody worries about Arman's past fatigue and the possibility of judges favoring damage over control time in Qatar. He suggests hedging after the first round if Hooker is still competitive.

Connor picks Tsarukyan as a knee-jerk reaction, citing his elite grappling and top control. He notes Hooker's vulnerability to early finishes and slow starts, but acknowledges Hooker's toughness and 25% chance of a KO. Connor emphasizes Tsarukyan's bullying style and potential to finish quickly on the ground.

Lucrative James picks Arman Tsarukyan despite rooting for Dan Hooker. He cites Arman's elite wrestling as the key factor, noting Hooker's historical struggles with grapplers. He mentions Arman's age advantage (29 vs 35), recent training with the Russian Olympic wrestling team, and improved submission game. He also notes Hooker's inactivity and hand surgery concerns. However, he acknowledges Hooker's dangerous striking and hopes for an upset.

Tsarukyan is a top lightweight with elite wrestling and cardio. Hooker is durable but has taken a lot of damage. Tsarukyan should dominate with grappling and pressure, winning by decision or late finish. The method is uncertain but the win is solid.

Paul leans towards Dan Hooker as a plus money underdog, citing value at plus 420. He acknowledges Arman's takedowns are the path of least resistance against Hooker, but believes Hooker can hang around and make it competitive. Paul mentions that if forced to bet one side right now, he'd take Hooker, but he doesn't have to bet it.

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker, citing Arman's superior grappling and ability to maintain dominant positions. He notes Hooker's broken arms and believes Arman will finish him via ground and pound in round two or three. He acknowledges Hooker's underrated takedown defense but trusts Arman's improvement.

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dan Hooker is a live underdog who can drop Gamrot, as many have. He believes Gamrot's relentless wrestling and pace will be too much, but Hooker's heart and striking make it close. He plans to bet on Hooker via the plus 3.5 round spread, expecting Hooker to win at least one round.

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes Gamrot's style is to spam takedowns (almost 20 per 15 minutes) and he expects Gamrot to lay on Hooker, limiting Hooker's offense. He points out that Hooker has not faced many wrestlers aside from Islam Makhachev, who submitted him in the first round. He acknowledges some arguments for Hooker based on damage scoring but believes Gamrot's takedown volume will be overwhelming. He says it's not a fight he's entirely looking forward to.

Cody believes Hooker's pressure, durability, and fan-friendly style will sway judges, especially if Gamrot's wrestling is neutralized. He notes Gamrot has been knocked down in half his UFC fights and gasses late, while Hooker has proven cardio and a chin. Cody also mentions the possibility that Gamrot may be told not to wrestle, which would play into Hooker's hands.

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Gamrot to win a split decision, but is hesitant due to Gamrot's sloppy striking and tendency to get dropped. He notes that Hooker has finishing upside and that Gamrot's path to victory is through grinding with takedowns and top control. Vreeland says the fight is a dog-or-pass situation and that he would not lay the juice on Gamrot.

Vreeland picks Gamrot, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling volume. He argues Hooker can stuff a few takedowns but cannot stop 15-20 attempts. He compares Gamrot's wrestling to Islam Makhachev's explosiveness, far superior to Jalin Turner's. He expects a grimy, grinding win for Gamrot.

Fox agrees with Gamrot, acknowledging Hooker's good performance against Turner but noting Gamrot's pressure and wrestling are a different level. He emphasizes Gamrot's relentless takedown threat and explosive entries, which he believes Hooker cannot handle over three rounds.

The host picks Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and grappling. He notes Hooker's toughness and ability to land damage from defensive positions, which could sway judges. He expects Gamrot to win by decision, but warns the line is too wide given the narrow margin. He prefers the Gamrot by decision prop if at plus money.

Paul expects Gamrot to use his wrestling to control Hooker, taking him down repeatedly and grinding out a decision. He acknowledges Hooker's toughness but believes Gamrot's chain wrestling and takedown volume will be too much. Paul also notes that Hooker hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler recently and that Gamrot's 11-takedown performance against dos Anjos shows his commitment to wrestling.

Angelo is confident in Turner, calling him a 'pretty easy pick'. He notes Turner's excellent boxing, range management, and well-roundedness (3 of last 4 wins by submission). Hooker is durable but Angelo thinks he'll be a step behind. He is only slightly concerned about Hooker turning it into a wrestling match, but believes Turner can handle it. He recommends Turner for parlays.

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Turner is very dangerous with scary power, and Hooker has been knocked out recently by Michael Chandler and Arnold Allen. He believes Hooker will try to wrestle but doesn't have the takedown game to exploit Turner's takedown defense. He expects a striking match where Turner finishes Hooker early. He mentions that Turner is five years younger and more in his prime.

Cody picks Turner but is hesitant at -260. He thinks Turner's length and power will be too much for Hooker, who has taken a lot of damage. He notes Hooker's durability may be fading. He considers the under 1.5 rounds but doesn't feel great about it. He mentions Turner's cardio issues in the past but expects an early knockout.

Connor picks Turner, emphasizing that Hooker's game relies on being the taller fighter with reach, which he won't have here. He notes that Turner's pressure and collar-tie game will be effective, and that Hooker's slow starts and reactive style play into Turner's hands. Connor sees Turner as younger, faster, and more powerful, making this a bad matchup for Hooker.

Daniel Levi picks Turner, noting that he has improved his range management and defense, and that Hooker has taken too much damage throughout his career. Levi points out that Hooker will be the shorter man for the first time, facing a three-inch reach disadvantage. He acknowledges that the minus-260 price is high but believes Turner is catching Hooker at the right time. Levi also mentions that Turner has been training outside his comfort zone, including in Abu Dhabi with Khamzat Chimaev, which shows his dedication to improvement.

James picks Jalin Turner to win by knockout. He notes Turner is on an upward trajectory while Hooker is on a downward one. He praises Turner's improved speed, accuracy, and range management. He acknowledges Turner's chin is questionable and Hooker could land, but thinks Hooker will have to endure too much punishment. He also mentions Turner missed weight but doesn't think it was intentional.

Turner has dangerous striking and a strong submission game, while Hooker is hittable and has durability concerns. Hooker may have a technical striking advantage and output, but Turner's power and ability to club and sub will eventually catch Hooker. Fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite spot.

Paul picks Turner but struggles with the price. He notes Hooker's durability has declined after many wars. He thinks Turner likely finishes him early but doesn't see value at -260. He would consider the under 1.5 rounds but isn't confident. He mentions Hooker's size and experience as potential factors.

The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner to win by second-round TKO. He criticizes Hooker's lack of head movement and declining chin, noting that Turner has a similar reach and will land clean shots. He believes Turner's patience and power will overwhelm Hooker, who has shown slower reaction times recently.

Angelo likes Hooker's striking and believes he can keep the fight standing. He notes that Puelles has poor takedown defense and Hooker has only been submitted once in his career. He picks Hooker to win the striking exchanges and get his mojo back. He plans to bet on Puelles inside the distance (decision no action) because he sees Hooker winning by decision or Puelles by submission, not Hooker by stoppage.

Big Brady picks Dan Hooker to win by knockout in the first or second round. He argues Hooker's competition has been much tougher (Islam, Arnold Allen, Chandler, Poirier) and that Puelles is a big step down. He praises Hooker's takedown defense (78%) and notes he has beaten good grapplers like Gilbert Burns and Jim Miller. He criticizes Puelles' striking and believes Hooker will beat him up on the feet, though he acknowledges Puelles' knee bar threat.

Cody picks Dan Hooker, arguing that Hooker's losses have come against elite competition and that Puelles has not impressed him. He notes that Puelles' wins are against lower-level opponents and that his striking is not dangerous. Cody believes Hooker's takedown defense and striking volume will allow him to dominate on the feet and win a decision, as Puelles is durable but not a finisher.

Daniel Levi picks Dan Hooker, citing Hooker's superior striking volume, variety, and experience against top competition. He notes that Puelles is a submission specialist, but Hooker has shown he can defend leg locks (e.g., against Ian Entwistle and Al Iaquinta). Levi is concerned about Hooker's durability after recent knockdowns but believes Puelles doesn't have the power to exploit that. He sees this as a test for Puelles to see if he's ready for the top 15, and he's not convinced yet. Levi expects Hooker to win via striking or top control.

The host believes Hooker is the far superior striker and BJJ player, and that Puelles' only path is a submission like a kneebar, which won't work against Hooker. He dismisses Hooker's 1-4 run because the losses were to elite fighters (Poirier, Chandler, Islam, Allen), while Puelles is not at that level. He expects Hooker to win easily, possibly by KO or submission, and recommends the moneyline or inside the distance.

Paul also picks Dan Hooker, agreeing that Puelles' stand-up is not a threat and that Hooker should dominate on the feet. He notes that if the fight goes to the ground, Puelles could grab a leg, but on the feet it should not be competitive. Paul believes Hooker's durability is slightly compromised but still enough to beat Puelles.

Angelo picks Arnold Allen but expresses two concerns: Allen only fights once a year, and Dan Hooker is moving down to featherweight, which could make him big and strong or drained. He notes that Hooker's odds have flipped from underdog to favorite, but he still likes Allen's youth, speed, power, and grappling. He mentions Allen's ability to come back from adversity, like submitting Bernal after being taken down six times.

Big Brady picks Dan Hooker to win by decision, calling it an unpopular opinion. He notes Hooker is moving down to 145 and will have a massive size advantage with four inches in height and five and a half in reach. Brady believes Hooker's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and he favors Hooker's output and power over Allen's low volume. He also mentions Allen's best win was against Sadiq Yusuf in a close fight where Allen was outlanded.

Cody picks Hooker, citing Allen's lack of activity and close fights against lower-level opponents. He notes Hooker's volume and pace, and thinks Allen's wrestling won't be enough. He mentions waiting for weigh-ins due to Hooker's weight cut concerns.

Daniel Levi picks Arnold Allen at plus money, having bet him at +105 before the line flipped. He believes Allen is a top prospect flying under the radar, with a well-rounded game and no clear holes. Levi points out that Dan Hooker absorbs too many clean shots, as seen in fights against Poirier, Felder, and Barboza, and that Allen's point-fighting style will exploit that. He also notes the hometown advantage at the O2 Arena, suggesting close decisions will favor Allen. Levi respects Hooker but sees Allen as the future.

Hooker's volume and footwork should outwork Allen, who lacks knockout power (last KO in 2014). Hooker has good takedown defense and can use the big cage to his advantage with a stick-and-move style. Allen's grappling isn't dominant enough to control Hooker. The weight cut to 145 is a concern, but Hooker had a good test cut. I already bet Hooker at -110 and expect a decision win.

Paul picks Hooker, arguing that Allen's winning streak is overrated due to flash knockdowns and low striking output. He believes Hooker's volume and pace will overwhelm Allen, and that Allen's wrestling won't be effective. He also notes Hooker's improved wrestling from the Makhachev fight.

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He believes Makhachev's wrestling will be relentless and he will control Hooker on the ground. Hooker has good takedown defense on paper but hasn't faced a wrestler of Makhachev's caliber. Hooker has never been submitted, so a decision is likely. He respects Hooker for stepping in but thinks it's a tough matchup.

Cody agrees with Islam by decision, citing Hooker's durability and chin. He notes Hooker has only been knocked out twice (by Barboza body kick and Chandler) and has good submission defense. He thinks Islam's grappling will control the fight but Hooker will survive to a decision.

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his dominant wrestling and submission skills, including making Tiago Moises tap. He notes Hooker's durability and striking but believes Islam's grappling will be the difference. Daniel is curious to see if Islam tests his striking but expects a dominant performance. He mentions the line is too high to bet.

Makhachev's wrestling and pressure will be overwhelming for Hooker, who took the fight on short notice. Hooker's only chance is a KO, but Makhachev's striking has improved and he will likely take Hooker down repeatedly. Makhachev wins a decision or possibly a late finish.

Paul picks Islam Makhachev by decision, noting Hooker's durability and that Hooker has never been submitted. He thinks Islam's suffocating top control and methodical approach will lead to a decision win. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds is -160 and he likes that as well.

Angelo picks Haqparast, believing Hooker has peaked and taken too much damage. He notes Hooker's recent wars and knockout loss to Chandler, and his visa issues affecting preparation. Angelo thinks Haqparast has better chin durability and power, and he already placed a moneyline bet at plus money.

Big Brady picks Dan Hooker to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to major red flags. Hooker had visa issues and will arrive in Vegas on Thursday night, then cut weight Friday morning after a 20-hour flight. Brady notes Hooker has fought much better competition and is the more well-rounded fighter, but the travel and weight cut are huge concerns.

Cody picks Hooker, citing his durability, technical striking, and fast starts. He notes Haqparast's slow starts and that Hooker excels in three-round fights. He also mentions Haqparast's step-up loss to Dober and unimpressive wins. He expects Hooker to win a decision or late TKO.

Daniel Levi picks Nasrat Haqparast, citing the cumulative damage Dan Hooker has absorbed throughout his career. He notes Hooker's high strike absorption in fights against Maximo Blanco, Edson Barboza, Paul Felder, and Dustin Poirier, and his first-round KO loss to Michael Chandler. Levi believes Hooker's iron jaw may be fading and that Haqparast's youth and power left hand can capitalize. He sees value in the underdog line.

Jacob picks Haqparast, citing Hooker's chin issues after recent wars and the long flight from New Zealand. He notes Haqparast's chin has held up since his flash knockout loss. Jacob sees great value at $7,500 and plus money.

The host picks Merab Dvalishvili via decision. He believes Moraes' best path is a first-round KO, but after that, Dvalishvili's pace and pressure will take over. He notes that Dvalishvili has a long winning streak and his style is difficult to keep up with. He suggests a double chance prop (KO or decision) for Dvalishvili for best value.

Paul picks Hooker, citing his durability and technical skill, and notes Haqparast's visa issues. He acknowledges Hooker's recent KO loss to Chandler but believes Hooker's chin is still solid. He thinks Hooker's experience and strength of schedule give him the edge.

Big Brady leans towards Dan Hooker, citing Hooker's reach advantage (75.5 inches vs 69 inches), durability, and power. He thinks Hooker's takedown defense (79%) will keep the fight standing, and that Chandler's history of being knocked out is a concern. He predicts Hooker wins by knockout.

Daniel Levi picks Michael Chandler as the underdog, citing Chandler's D1 wrestling, power, and fresher mindset. He notes Hooker's recent damage and potential overrated status, but acknowledges Hooker's striking weapons like the knee up the middle and calf kicks. Levi believes Chandler can land a big right hand or use wrestling to control the fight, though he admits it's a close matchup.

Hooker has a huge reach and height advantage, and he is excellent at using calf kicks to neutralize opponents. Chandler has a suspect chin and struggles with distance. Hooker's takedown defense has been excellent since moving to 155, stuffing 19 of 21 attempts. Chandler will have difficulty closing the distance and may get countered. I expect Hooker to win by knockout, possibly with a left hook or calf kick setup.

Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win, citing his superior boxing, pressure in the smaller cage, and ability to cut off angles. He notes that Hooker absorbs a lot of strikes (5.13 per minute) and has taken damage in recent fights, which could lead to a late finish. He also mentions that Hooker's competition has been a step below Poirier's, and that Poirier's durability and cardio should carry him through. He predicts a fourth-round knockout.

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win, citing Poirier's superior boxing, cardio, and output, especially in later rounds. He notes that Poirier's defense has improved and he no longer makes lunging mistakes. Levi believes Poirier's mindset is focused and he will not let Hooker off the hook, predicting a finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Hooker's durability and sneaky tools like high knees but thinks Poirier's firepower and experience will prevail.

Daniel Levi picks Paul Felder to win, citing Felder's durability (never knocked out), better technique throughout the fight, and ability to handle five rounds. He believes Felder's calf kicks and pressure will be key, and that Hooker's confidence from recent wins is overblown. Levi expects Felder to get a late knockout or win a decision, possibly 48-47.