Career Averages - Marcin Prachnio
Career Averages - Khalil Rountree Jr.
Marcin Prachnio
Khalil Rountree Jr.
Marcin Prachnio - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Crute | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 11 of 27 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 37 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmy Crute | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 11 of 27 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 37 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Crute | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 21 of 36 | 58% | 7 of 21 | 9 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmy Crute | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 21 of 36 | 58% | 7 of 21 | 9 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Jimmy Crute despite his long winless streak, because Marcin Prachnio has poor ground game and Crute is a good wrestler. He notes Crute's recent retirement and poor mindset, but believes the gap on the ground is enough for Crute to win. He is hesitant due to Crute's mental state.
Big Brady believes Jimmy Crute should dominate Marcin Prachnio, citing Crute's easier UFC fight to date. He notes Prachnio's poor cardio, no ground game, and chin issues. He predicts Crute wins by first-round submission, though he acknowledges Crute's past bad fight IQ.
The host acknowledges Crute is flaky and inconsistent, and Prachnio is capable of pulling off the upset. However, he thinks Crute will utilize his aggressiveness, land a big shot, and follow up with a submission. The pick is hesitant due to Crute's inconsistency.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio over Jimmy Crute, despite some hesitation. He criticizes Crute's footwork, saying he fights like he's stepping on Legos, and notes that Crute has problems with low kicks, as seen against Anthony Smith. Prachnio is described as a slick striker with good low kicks, and the Guru believes he will not get outmuscled on the ground. However, he acknowledges the possibility of Crute submitting him, but ultimately goes with Prachnio based on striking superiority.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 38 of 76 | 50% | 56 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 5:31 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 70 of 139 | 50% | 120 of 200 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 35 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 21 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 34 of 58 | 58% | 67 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 16 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 38 of 76 | 50% | 28 of 64 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 62 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 70 of 139 | 50% | 19 of 74 | 31 of 44 | 20 of 21 | 58 of 123 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 19 of 39 | 48% | 12 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 26 of 61 | 42% | 2 of 29 | 10 of 17 | 14 of 15 | 25 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 17 of 31 | 54% | 14 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 34 of 58 | 58% | 8 of 26 | 20 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 44 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 10 of 20 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-155), Prachnio (+130)
Round 1
When the dust settles between these light heavyweights, one of them will reach the .500 mark on their UFC ledger while the other will fall two wins beneath it. Bukauskas (15-6, 3-4 UFC) is trying to build up his resume on his second stint with the promotion, while Prachnio (17-7, 4-5 UFC) wants to disappoint home fans by beating the fighter training in England. With similar finish rates of 73% and 71%, respectively, they might need to involve referee Marc Goddard before the final horn. The 205ers touch ‘em up, and Prachnio introduces himself with a trio of leg kicks. Bukauskas swings back with a looping right hand, but his foe is out of range. Prachnio sweeps the leg, or at least tries to, but his second kick nearly buckles Bukauskas’ knee on the inside. Bukauskas times a hard left hand when Prachnio sells out on a low kick, and he leans back to watch a side kick to the face come up short. Prachnio continues working the front leg no matter the stance, and he pushes off to disallow Bukauskas from reaching him with two hooks. Bukauskas sits down on a left hand, getting Prachnio’s attention, and Prachnio gathers himself and keeps on chopping down the tree. Bukauskas loops a left around the guard, and he kicks a ducking Prachnio in the face. They clash together, and Prachnio stumbles before recovering. Prachnio tries to land a spinning wheel kick that ends up bouncing off the guard, and he peppers the front leg and thigh with kicks. Prachnio winds up and drills Bukauskas with a massive right hand, and Bukauskas eats it like a bowl of kugelis. Prachnio races forward throwing a kick, and Bukauskas grabs hold of him and turns him to the fencing. On the break, the Lithuanian dings Prachnio with a spinning elbow, but Prachnio appears unconcerned. Bukauskas races forward throwing hands, and a right hand careens off the temple and wobbles Prachnio. Bukauskas unleashes a salvo of vicious punches, but Prachnio is able to rebound off the fenced and get his footing. Prachnio chips at the front leg, and he lumbers forward throwing inaccurate punches. Bukauskas switches stances frequently, and he beans Prachnio with a huge right hand. Prachnio goes after another spinning wheel kick that is a long way away, and Bukauskas stays composed until he throws a bit too hard, and gets caught with a counter on the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 2
The two touch gloves and go right into a brawl, winging power hooks with no concern of defense. They backpedal momentarily, and Prachnio scores a leg kick and connects with an overhand right. Prachnio kicks low a few times before going high, and Bukauskas blocks the head kick but eats a body kick that follows. Prachnio gets into range and is met with a pair of hooks, and he takes a few steps back to kick the front leg. Prachnio lunges and gets countered, but he ends with a body kick. The low kicks of the Polish fighter are starting to compromise Bukauskas, but Prachnio decides to throw caution to the wind and whiff with a comical windmilling right hand that is feet off the mark. Prachnio takes a moment to stop fighting so recklessly, and Bukauskas uses the moment to belt Prachnio with a handful of punches that rock Prachnio. In the ensuing melee, Bukauskas absorbs a flush head kick in close range and gets his bell rung, and he has no choice but to back off as he was in trouble too. Both fighters wobbled and hurt, they end up clinching, with Bukauskas pressing Prachnio against the wire. Bukauskas drops to his knees for a takedown, and Prachnio stands him up and knees him in the gut to break. Prachnio doubles up on the knee when he gets in close, and Bukauskas backs off and smacks him with a left hand. A body lock takedown from Bukauskas succeeds in planting Prachnio on his back, and Prachnio grabs hold of the fence for several seconds and does not let it go as Goddard watches on without saying anything. Bukauskas moves to half guard, and Prachnio lets go so he can block his face but ultimately takes several elbows off the dome. Bukauskas walks right into side control and threatens briefly with a kimura, but lets it go so he can knee Prachnio in the side and elbow him as well. Prachnio briefly drags Bukauskas back to his guard, but Bukauskas easily gest back to half guard. Prachnio wall-walks to get back up, and they dirty box in the clinch until the violent round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prachnio
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 3
Gloves are touched, and fists immediately fly. Prachnio elects to go out swinging, and he pummels the Lithuanian with a flurry of fierce punches that knock him back to the fencing. Bukauskas takes advantage of Prachnio’s momentum and hits a body lock trip to redeposit Prachnio flat on his back. Bukauskas moves to half guard to control his opponent, and he lands short shots to stay busy. Goddard warns Prachnio for punches that wrap around to the back of the head, and Bukauskas ignores them while maintaining controlling posture. Goddard asks for more work, and Bukauskas keeps on slowly working from above while not attempting many fight-ending strikes.
Bukauskas sits up to drive two elbows home before leaning down with an arm-triangle choke position. Bukauskas lowers himself flat to smother his opponent while clutching the submission grip tight, and he is on the wrong side but does not seem to care. Bukauskas remains flat and crushes down on his adversary, and even out of position he squeezes with all his might. Prachnio cannot hang on any longer, and he taps out.
Prachnio thinks about standing up after the fight's conclusion, but he does not have the energy to do it. Meanwhile, the victorious Lithuanian hits a back flip to show he still has something left in the tank.
The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Marcin Prachnio R3 3:12 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing his youth and well-roundedness. He notes that Prachnio has power but is chinny and can be knockout or bust. Angelo expects Bukauskas to win and hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line to bet on.
Cody picks Marcin Prachnio, citing his volume striking and improved cardio. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas has low output and has looked unimpressive in his UFC return, with close fights against lower-level competition. Cody believes Prachnio's pressure and output will overwhelm Bukauskas, and that he can win by decision or even knockout.
Daniel thinks Marcin Prachnio has a higher work rate and will outwork Modestas Bukauskas. He notes both have poor chins but Prachnio pushes a higher pace. He picks the underdog Prachnio.
Paul leans towards Prachnio, noting that Bukauskas has low volume and no real power. He believes Prachnio's volume advantage (5.61 significant strikes per minute vs 3.28) will be key, and that the fight likely goes to a decision where Prachnio edges it. However, he is not fully confident and may pass on betting.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio as an underdog, citing Prachnio's better technical striking and leg-kicking ability. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas lacks finishing potential and a strong grappling game, often letting fights go to split decisions. Prachnio is known for chewing up opponents' legs, and Bukauskas has a history of leg injuries. The Guru also questions Bukauskas's training camp with heavyweights, suggesting it may not be ideal for this matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 53 of 127 | 41% | 53 of 127 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Devin Clark | 0 | 101 of 189 | 53% | 112 of 204 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Devin Clark | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 19 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devin Clark | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 23 of 62 | 37% | 23 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devin Clark | 0 | 48 of 82 | 58% | 53 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 53 of 127 | 41% | 36 of 106 | 13 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 49 of 120 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Devin Clark | 101 of 189 | 53% | 42 of 113 | 37 of 51 | 22 of 25 | 78 of 156 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Devin Clark | 23 of 47 | 48% | 8 of 28 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 10 | 21 of 42 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 19 of 36 | 52% | 13 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Devin Clark | 30 of 60 | 50% | 9 of 33 | 9 of 15 | 12 of 12 | 26 of 52 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marcin Prachnio | 23 of 62 | 37% | 16 of 53 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Devin Clark | 48 of 82 | 58% | 25 of 52 | 21 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 31 of 62 | 17 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Devin Clark can pressure forward, avoid Prachnio's power, get takedowns, and grind out a win. He notes Clark's solid grappling and footwork, and that Prachnio has a questionable chin. He thinks Clark should win, but the -190 odds are a bit rich; he would prefer Clark at -150. He will monitor the line movement.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Devin Clark to win by decision. He notes that Clark has a clear path to victory through wrestling, as Prachnio has terrible takedown defense and ground game. However, he is not confident because Clark has poor cardio and has been finished often, and Prachnio's fights have had weird results.
Cody picks Prachnio as a dog, noting Clark's cardio issues and tendency to fade. Prachnio has power and has shown he can survive early takedowns and come back. Cody thinks if Clark doesn't finish early, Prachnio can knock him out in the later rounds. He suggests a prop on Prachnio by KO in round 3 at long odds.
Clark should be able to use his clinch and grappling to push Prachnio against the cage and drag him to the mat. Prachnio has questionable takedown defense and durability. However, Clark is inconsistent and has a history of fumbling fights he's winning. The line at -210 is too wide for someone as flimsy as Clark, but he should still win by decision.
Paul also picks Prachnio, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes Clark's wrestling advantage but thinks Prachnio can survive and find a knockout. Paul mentions that Clark has been knocked out before and that Prachnio has power. He is tempted by the dog price and the prop.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio as an underdog after initially leaning toward Devin Clark. He notes that Clark has taken a lot of damage and lacks one-punch KO power or submission threat. He believes Prachnio can out-damage Clark on the feet with better striking skill. He acknowledges the pick is risky but thinks Prachnio is a lot better than Clark in terms of before a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 44 of 81 | 54% | 72 of 111 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 8:39 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 55 of 88 | 62% | 147 of 185 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 20 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 32 of 44 | 72% | 66 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 30 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:38 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 56 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 22 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 44 of 81 | 54% | 32 of 68 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 22 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 55 of 88 | 62% | 25 of 54 | 21 of 25 | 9 of 9 | 41 of 73 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 16 of 33 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 32 of 44 | 72% | 12 of 23 | 14 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 32 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 11 of 15 | 73% | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 17 of 33 | 51% | 13 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 21 of 39 | 53% | 12 of 27 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Petrino but warns against including him in parlays, citing the recent trend of undefeated prospects losing. He notes Petrino's power and offensive wrestling but poor takedown defense. Prachnio has veteran savvy and power, but his chin is questionable. He sees Petrino having multiple ways to win but lacks confidence.
Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round knockout. He was impressed by Petrino's wrestling in his last fight, taking down Anton Turkalj seven times. He notes that Prachnio has been knocked out by lesser strikers and has poor durability. He believes Petrino can knock him out on the feet or take him down and finish him. He mentions that Prachnio's path to victory is leg kicks and running away, but he doesn't think the fight goes to decision.
Cody picks Petrino, citing his power and youth. He notes Prachnio has a questionable chin and has been knocked out early in the UFC. He thinks Petrino will crack him early. He says there's no value at -300 but Petrino should win.
Connor picks Petrino because he is too violent for Prachnio, who has become a safe fighter after being knocked out. Petrino's reckless pressure and durability will force Prachnio out of his comfort zone. However, Prachnio could win if he takes Petrino down or lands a switch kick, but Petrino's ability to keep coming makes him the pick.
Daniel Levi picks Petrino, citing his knockout power and aggressive style. He notes that Prachnio has a questionable chin, having been knocked out three times in the UFC. Levi acknowledges Petrino's cardio concerns due to his high-energy approach but believes he will expose Prachnio's chin early. He is not interested in betting at minus-300 but picks Petrino to win.
James believes Petrino has all the advantages: youth, power, physicality, durability, and strength. He thinks Prachnio may be the better technical mixed martial artist, but Petrino's raw attributes will overwhelm him. He predicts a first-round knockout, as he expects Petrino to land on Prachnio's chin and finish the fight.
Petrino has big knockout power and durability, and he can cut off the cage to prevent Prachnio from using his karate style. Prachnio is not a good enough grappler to hold Petrino down, and Petrino will eventually land a knockout, likely early in the fight.
Paul picks Petrino, noting his power and wrestling. He thinks Prachnio has only beaten low-level competition and will be overwhelmed. He mentions Petrino's cardio looked good in his last fight. He expects a finish or a clear decision.
The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino to win by KO, citing Prachnio's poor chin and lack of finishing potential. He notes Prachnio was KO'd by Sam Alvey and others, while Petrino is a physical freak with dangerous striking. He acknowledges Petrino's grappling issues but believes his finishing power is decisive.
Zane picks Petrino because he is a bully and brawler who doesn't gas easily and has a great chin. Prachnio is a technical karate fighter who has become safe after being knocked out, and Petrino's relentless pressure and power should overwhelm him. However, Petrino is a mess and could be taken down or knocked out, but his violence is likely too much for Prachnio.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| William Knight | 0 | 79 of 144 | 54% | 79 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| William Knight | 0 | 26 of 48 | 54% | 26 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| William Knight | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| William Knight | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 8 of 33 | 24% | 0 of 13 | 2 of 8 | 6 of 12 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| William Knight | 79 of 144 | 54% | 9 of 36 | 7 of 25 | 63 of 83 | 79 of 144 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| William Knight | 26 of 48 | 54% | 1 of 10 | 3 of 11 | 22 of 27 | 26 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| William Knight | 29 of 49 | 59% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 8 | 22 of 29 | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marcin Prachnio | 4 of 13 | 30% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| William Knight | 24 of 47 | 51% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 6 | 19 of 27 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo has a one-unit bet on Prachnio but expresses buyer's remorse. He thinks Prachnio is the better technical fighter with a karate background, but his chin is a concern. Angelo notes William Knight is a powerful, fast bodybuilder-type who can wrestle, but is inconsistent and missed weight by 12 pounds. He believes Prachnio should win if he doesn't get caught, but admits the bet is risky.
Big Brady favors Knight because of his wrestling path, as Prachnio has poor takedown defense (around 50%) and terrible cardio, gassing out by six minutes in his last fight. He thinks Knight can take him down, wear on him, and get a second-round knockout. He notes that both have durability issues, but Knight's power and cardio give him the edge.
Cody picks Prachnio, noting William Knight has struggled with weight cuts and is now moving back to 205 after a failed heavyweight stint. He details Knight's history of botched weight cuts and poor performances when depleted. He says Prachnio has volume and cardio advantages, and even if Knight gets takedowns, he won't do enough with them. He calls it an even money fight but likes Prachnio as the betting underdog.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Knight's counter punching is technically poor and he cannot put together combinations. Prachnio will get hurt but is unlikely to be finished. Knight's lack of follow-up means Prachnio can recover and win rounds.
Jacob picks William Knight, citing his explosiveness and power as a perfect matchup against Prachnio's karate style. He thinks once Knight starts landing, Prachnio will shell up against the fence and get finished. Jacob notes Knight's aggression and ability to pounce, and believes Prachnio's chin is weak. He also mentions the under 1.5 rounds feels like a trap but thinks Knight will get the KO.
Prachnio's kick-heavy, movement-based style should keep him safe from Knight's early power. Knight fades after round one and has poor cardio. Prachnio can use his range and footwork to win a decision, though his chin is a concern. Live betting after round one is suggested.
Paul picks Prachnio, saying he struggles to get to William Knight. He notes Knight's volume isn't there and he's not sure about his grappling. He says Prachnio should box him up at range with volume as long as he stays upright. He acknowledges Knight can land a bomb, but thinks more often than not Prachnio wins. He says he's not sure if he'll bet it but is picking Prachnio.
The MMA Guru picks William Knight, but is undecided. He acknowledges Marcin Prachnio is not bad and beat Khalil Rountree, but notes Prachnio's chin is suspect, having been finished three times in his last six fights by KO. He believes Knight will find that chin and get a KO, either by dominant position or big shot on the feet, but emphasizes Knight must be aggressive.
Zane picks Prachnio because he is a better striker and more determined than Knight. Knight has power but lacks form and follow-up, and he turns into a counter puncher when pressured. Prachnio takes available targets and will win rounds. Knight may hurt him but likely won't finish, and Prachnio's improved durability should see him through.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipe Lins | 0 | 74 of 117 | 63% | 116 of 159 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 64 of 110 | 58% | 96 of 142 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 5:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philipe Lins | 0 | 30 of 42 | 71% | 43 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 15 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Philipe Lins | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 46 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 33 of 49 | 67% | 54 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 3 | Philipe Lins | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 27 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 27 of 44 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipe Lins | 74 of 117 | 63% | 13 of 49 | 44 of 48 | 17 of 20 | 47 of 81 | 26 of 35 | 1 of 1 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 64 of 110 | 58% | 36 of 79 | 20 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 52 of 96 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philipe Lins | 30 of 42 | 71% | 4 of 11 | 14 of 16 | 12 of 15 | 23 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 14 of 27 | 51% | 2 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Philipe Lins | 28 of 50 | 56% | 5 of 26 | 20 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 31 | 13 of 18 | 1 of 1 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 33 of 49 | 67% | 25 of 40 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 42 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Philipe Lins | 16 of 25 | 64% | 4 of 12 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 17 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 17 of 34 | 50% | 9 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo likes Philipe Lins to win but is watching the scales closely because Lins is moving down from heavyweight. He notes Lins has legit power and a BJJ black belt, but prefers to trade. He mentions Prachnio has chin issues but an entire set of skills we haven't seen. He says if Lins looks good at 205 he will pick him and probably bet, but if he looks sucked out he will fade him.
Big Brady picks Marcin Prachnio to win by knockout, citing his volume and recent improved performances. He notes that Philipe Lins has looked poor in the UFC and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he is concerned about Prachnio's chin and says it's hard to be confident. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Cody picks Prachnio, citing Lins' poor UFC performances and long layoff. He notes Prachnio's improved fight IQ and chin. He thinks Prachnio can win at range and avoid Lins' power. He mentions the 'don't let friends bet on guys that lost to Kelly Nunes' rule.
The host picks Philipe Lins as his dog of the night at +110 (1 unit). He believes Lins is the much better striker with enough power to find Prachnio's chin and finish him. He notes concerns about Lins' recent inactivity, weight cut, and KO loss to Tanner Boser, which is why he only bets 1 unit despite a 70% win probability.
Paul agrees, noting Lins' inactivity and poor showings at 205. He thinks Prachnio's striking and improved defense will be enough. He mentions the Kelly Nunes rule and expects Prachnio to win.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio over Philipe Lins, expressing concerns about Lins making weight and his inactivity. He notes Prachnio's technical striking and ability to make fights awkward, but acknowledges his suspect chin. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Prachnio, believing Lins will gas and that Prachnio's confidence from a two-fight win streak will carry him. He mentions Prachnio's win over Khalil Rountree as a quality victory.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 1 | 59 of 92 | 64% | 60 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 34 of 79 | 43% | 34 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 49 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 32 of 72 | 44% | 32 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 1 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 59 of 92 | 64% | 23 of 52 | 15 of 19 | 21 of 21 | 55 of 86 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 34 of 79 | 43% | 29 of 73 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 27 of 63 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 48 of 79 | 60% | 18 of 45 | 12 of 16 | 18 of 18 | 44 of 73 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 32 of 72 | 44% | 29 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 56 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 7 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 11 of 13 | 84% | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ike Villanueva, citing his toughness, forward pressure, speed, and power. He notes that Prachnio's three first-round knockout losses raise chin questions. Angelo believes Villanueva is a solid underdog and likes the under on rounds as a prop.
Big Brady picks Ike Villanueva to win by first round KO, calling it a clear dog pass. He notes Prachnio's weak chin (four KO losses) and poor striking defense, while Villanueva is a powerful brawler with 83% finish rate. He believes the smaller Apex cage favors Villanueva's pressure style, and that Prachnio's path to victory (staying on the outside) is unlikely. He thinks the line is off and Villanueva should be closer to even.
Cody picks Villanueva as a dog, noting his power and that Prachnio's chin has been checked. He thinks Villanueva has a puncher's chance and that Prachnio's defensive liabilities make him vulnerable. However, he is not confident and says he won't bet it, but for PRP purposes he takes Villanueva. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds.
Jacob picks Marcin Prachnio, calling the fight a coin flip and going with Prachnio because he thinks he has a little more power than Ike. He notes a weird stat that Prachnio has never had a fight end in the second round. Jacob is not very confident and suggests staying away from this fight.
Villanueva is durable and has heavy hands. Prachnio has a vulnerable chin and relies on a kicking game to stay away from power. Villanueva will march forward, absorb kicks, and land a knockout punch. Prachnio's chin issues will be exposed. Villanueva is one of my favorite dogs on the card.
Paul leans toward Prachnio based on his technical improvements in the last fight, but he is not betting him at -190. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and thinks the under 1.5 rounds is a better play. He acknowledges Villanueva's power but thinks Prachnio's volume could be key.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio by decision, expecting a boring fight where Prachnio keeps range and outpoints Villanueva. He acknowledges Prachnio's chin issues but believes Villanueva's chin is equally suspect. He criticizes Villanueva's UFC caliber and notes his win over Vinicius Moreira was unimpressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 49 of 148 | 33% | 50 of 149 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 102 of 216 | 47% | 105 of 220 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 20 of 48 | 41% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 32 of 70 | 45% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 13 of 62 | 20% | 13 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 40 of 92 | 43% | 40 of 92 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 49 of 148 | 33% | 29 of 120 | 13 of 18 | 7 of 10 | 49 of 146 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 102 of 216 | 47% | 33 of 131 | 29 of 39 | 40 of 46 | 100 of 211 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 16 of 38 | 42% | 5 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 30 of 54 | 55% | 8 of 26 | 7 of 12 | 15 of 16 | 29 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 20 of 48 | 41% | 14 of 39 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 20 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 32 of 70 | 45% | 10 of 40 | 6 of 10 | 16 of 20 | 31 of 67 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marcin Prachnio | 13 of 62 | 20% | 10 of 55 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 60 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 40 of 92 | 43% | 15 of 65 | 16 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 40 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree Jr. confidently, citing Prachnio's poor striking defense and tendency to get knocked out in the first round (three times in UFC). He notes Rountree has finished five of eight wins in the first round. He predicts a first-round knockout and likes the Rountree round one prop at +175.
Daniel Levi picks Khalil Rountree Jr. by first-round knockout, noting Prachnio has been knocked out in the first round in all three UFC fights. He believes Rountree's speed and striking improvements in Thailand will be too much for Prachnio, who is too slow and doesn't belong in the UFC.
Both fighters have sketchy chins and a high percentage of their fights ending under 1.5 rounds. Prachnio has diminishing durability and has been knocked out in his last three fights. Rountree has power and should be able to land a counter or follow-up shots. I expect a knockout from Rountree, likely in the first round. The under 1.5 rounds is a solid bet given the statistics and the matchup.
The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. to win by first-round TKO, calling Marcin Prachnio overmatched and past his prime. He notes Prachnio was brutally KO'd by Mike Rodriguez in his last fight and is taking a quick turnaround. He believes Rountree's striking will be too much, and he predicts a brutal finish via overhand right or similar shot. He expresses hope Rountree doesn't retire.
Khalil Rountree Jr. - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 1 | 71 of 138 | 51% | 71 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 66 of 158 | 41% | 66 of 158 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 12 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 24 of 65 | 36% | 24 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jiří Procházka | 1 | 47 of 71 | 66% | 47 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 27 of 61 | 44% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 71 of 138 | 51% | 44 of 100 | 16 of 25 | 11 of 13 | 61 of 127 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 66 of 158 | 41% | 44 of 127 | 12 of 17 | 10 of 14 | 62 of 151 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 12 of 24 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 15 of 32 | 46% | 9 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 12 of 43 | 27% | 7 of 34 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 24 of 65 | 36% | 10 of 47 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 24 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jiří Procházka | 47 of 71 | 66% | 30 of 49 | 14 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 60 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 27 of 61 | 44% | 25 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 54 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jiří Procházka but is not confident, as he thinks the odds are too wide. He believes Procházka's relentless forward pressure and threat of takedowns will be key against Khalil Rountree, who struggles when moving backwards. However, he notes Procházka gets hit a lot and has been knocked out twice recently, while Rountree has power and durability. He calls it a very close fight.
Big Brady acknowledges Procházka's poor striking defense but believes he is built differently and will break Rountree as the fight goes on. He notes that Procházka often switches to an aggressive style in the second round, as seen in the Rakic fight. He predicts Procházka wins by second-round knockout.
Connor picks Procházka, emphasizing that Rountree's technical improvements have not overcome his mental fragility. He notes that Procházka's relentless pressure and willingness to exchange will force Rountree into defensive mode, and that Procházka's athleticism and relaxed style give him an edge. Connor also acknowledges the possibility of Rountree landing a knockout or leg kicks, but believes Procházka's overall dynamics favor him.
The host expects a violent matchup, but Rountree's improvements will help him find Procházka's chin and his power will put Procházka away by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka, believing his chaos and durability will overwhelm Khalil Rountree. He notes Rountree's lack of one-punch KO power and tendency to fade under pressure. He predicts a third-round TKO.
Zane picks Procházka because he believes Rountree's mentality is his biggest weakness, as seen in the Jamal Hill fight where Rountree fought with fear despite having a technical advantage. Zane argues that Procházka's fearless, chaotic pressure will overwhelm Rountree, who tends to tense up and fight with a panic response. He also notes that Procházka is a better athlete, faster, and more dynamic, and that Rountree's leg kicks could be a threat but are unlikely to stop Procházka's forward pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 69 of 172 | 40% | 70 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 1 | 102 of 181 | 56% | 102 of 181 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 6 of 25 | 24% | 6 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 1 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Jamahal Hill | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 37 of 57 | 64% | 37 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamahal Hill | 69 of 172 | 40% | 47 of 142 | 7 of 12 | 15 of 18 | 68 of 170 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 102 of 181 | 56% | 30 of 91 | 42 of 54 | 30 of 36 | 102 of 181 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamahal Hill | 14 of 30 | 46% | 2 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 17 of 30 | 56% | 2 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamahal Hill | 15 of 33 | 45% | 10 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 15 of 35 | 42% | 3 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamahal Hill | 6 of 25 | 24% | 6 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 6 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 15 of 29 | 51% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jamahal Hill | 8 of 28 | 28% | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 18 of 30 | 60% | 8 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jamahal Hill | 26 of 56 | 46% | 21 of 49 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 37 of 57 | 64% | 10 of 25 | 22 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 37 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Khalil Rountree Jr., citing his durability and power. He notes that Rountree went toe-to-toe with Alex Pereira and showed he belongs. He thinks Jamahal Hill has good footwork but may slow down, and that Rountree has more upside. He expects a fun fight and thinks Rountree can win if he pressures.
Big Brady picks Jamahal Hill as a plus money underdog, but he is very hesitant due to Hill's recent performances after a gruesome injury. He notes that if Hill were the same fighter who beat Glover Teixeira, he would be max betting him, but the Hill who fought Pereira and Prochazka looked bad. Brady worries about Hill's durability and whether the injury took something out of him. He ultimately picks Hill but says he's not sure if he wants to put money on him, predicting a late finish or decision.
Connor picks Rountree, emphasizing that Rountree is a much more consistent technician while Hill is a bad technician with poor footwork and defense, leaving him open to be picked apart. He notes that Hill's durability against Prochazka may not hold against a cleaner puncher like Rountree, and that Rountree's roteness gives him consistency similar to Pereira. He believes if Rountree can't finish early, Hill's pressure could turn the fight, but he still favors Rountree.
The host notes Rountree opened around -160 but has moved to -120 as money came in on Hill, and he agrees with that movement. He thinks this is a great stylistic matchup for Hill to batter Rountree from distance, counter strike effectively, and pull away in deep water, predicting a round three or four KO finish.
The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr., despite acknowledging Jamahal Hill's underrated skills. He believes Rountree's low kicks will be decisive, and notes Hill's predictable movement. He also cites Rountree's longer recovery time since his loss to Pereira compared to Hill's recent brutal loss to Prochazka. He predicts a leg kick TKO in round 2 or 3.
Zane picks Rountree based on the stark technical advantage he sees in 30 seconds of footage: Rountree is much cleaner as a striker with better footwork, power, speed, and a more varied arsenal. However, he acknowledges Hill's comfort in messiness and ability to up the intensity over five rounds, drawing a parallel to Diaz vs Edwards. He is hesitant because Hill's durability and scrapping mentality could turn the fight late, but he ultimately sticks with Rountree.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 1 | 127 of 209 | 60% | 129 of 211 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 61 of 191 | 31% | 62 of 193 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 10 of 42 | 23% | 10 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 31 of 49 | 63% | 31 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 1 | 63 of 92 | 68% | 65 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 15 of 53 | 28% | 16 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 127 of 209 | 60% | 92 of 167 | 17 of 20 | 18 of 22 | 123 of 205 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 61 of 191 | 31% | 34 of 155 | 16 of 23 | 11 of 13 | 60 of 189 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 15 of 27 | 55% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 10 of 42 | 23% | 8 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 18 of 41 | 43% | 11 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 11 of 42 | 26% | 10 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 31 of 49 | 63% | 22 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 30 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 25 of 54 | 46% | 7 of 32 | 12 of 15 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 63 of 92 | 68% | 52 of 80 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 60 of 89 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 15 of 53 | 28% | 9 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-535), Rountree (+400)
Round 1
Possibly not the fight that fans wanted, the UFC has put Pereira (11-2, 8-1 UFC) in another headlining spot as he plans on defending his light heavyweight throne for the third time this year. While Rountree (13-5, 1 NC; 9-5, 1 NC UFC) has won five in a row, with four of those by knockout, he did recently fail a post-fight drug test and was still elevated to a championship opportunity. “Poatan” does not care, as he seeks to crush, maim and destroy any challenger standing before him. Referee Marc Goddard dons his proverbial hard hat and hopes to stay away from any errant blows, although he is relieved when the strikers come together and respectfully tap their gloves together to demonstrate sportsmanship. It’s on with the show. Pereira lashes out with a front kick to introduce himself, and it brushes past Rountree’s face as he grabs hold of it and hurls Pereira down to a knee. Rountree lets him up and backs off, and he lunges in with a right hand but pulls back when he is out of range. Pereira goes high with a kick that is blocked, and he parries a left hook. Rountree reaches the target with a left hand, and he sticks the champ with a one-two. Rountree again lands a long left hand, and Pereira smacks him with a front-leg calf kick. Rountree shuts up chants of “Chama” by launching strikes at his opponent, catching the favorite before he can block them. Pereira counters a strike with a right hand down the pipe, and Rountree is no worse for wear and throws back with a left. Pereira hacks at the front leg, keeping his hands up to block jabs or power strikes. When Pereira kicks high, Rountree charges through them but does not quite have his range nailed down. Pereira backs him up against the wall, but Rountree escapes before absorbing anything. They both land single shots, and Pereira smacks him upside the head with a kick. The calf kick that follows is more effective for the champ, and he hand-fights jabs but gets caught with a lunging left hand. Rountree gets to him with another left, and he dances away from a head kick and a leg kick that follows. Rountree misses a left hand by an inch, and he blocks a high kick and tries to sweep the leg. Rountree gets a right hand in on the champion, and Pereira jabs him back away. Rountree blitzes forward with three punches, and Pereira darts away but still eats one or two. Pereira comes out firing, and Rountree ducks away to get out of harm’s way. Rountree wings a right hand over the top, and a leg kick irritates him in response. Rountree takes two strong jabs and steels himself to loose a right hand, and he circles away as the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Round 2
Pereira is eager to get going again, and Goddard has to back him up before clocking them in again. Rountree gives him back a few blitzes to think about, but none of them land cleanly. Pereira kicks low and then high, and Rountree comes up hitting air on the counter. Rountree counters a body kick with a right hand, and he swats out a pair of hooks that make Pereira back off but for a moment. “Poatan” clips the challenger with a right hand, and he gets in a left hook to further wobble Rountree’s knees. Rountree gathers his thoughts and struggles with a low kick, and the punches split open the bridge of his nose. Pereira goes after another calf kick but is shy of his intended target, and his jab further bloodies the nose. Pereira jabs the body with his toes extended, and he lowers his hands to encourage Rountree to come at him. Rountree checks a kick and jabs to the body, but Pereira is walking him down fearlessly. The Brazilian jabs his way into a strike, and Rountree clips him behind the ear but absorbs a hard calf kick. They trade jabs in their alternating stances, and Rountree comes up short with his big left hook. Rountree again tries to connect with a right hook, and Pereira lashes out with a head kick. Rountree sees it coming, allows Pereira to plant and bashes him in the face with a right hand. Pereira drops to a knee and is staggered, his bell rung, and he stands to spin around and shake it off in a hurry. Pereira recovers quickly, as he is right in front of the challenger plugging him with jab after jab. Three punches from Rountree manage to get through, and the crowd starts to get behind him as they chant “USA.” Pereira tosses out a right hand, and he gets drilled with a head kick as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Round 3
“Poatan” crowds the challenger the second Goddard clocks them in, moving forward with purpose. He does not throw more than a single jab early, until he goes after a right hand and gets his head snapped back from a powerful left hook from “The War Horse.” Rountree lands cleanly to the body, and Pereira has to take a moment to reset as he reacts strangely to the blow while bounding off the fence. Rountree wings a right hand to the body, and he brushes another few punches off the champ’s face. Rountree keeps his hands busy, and a left to the body finds the sternum flush. Rountree goes there again when avoiding a single right hand, and they both tag one another with hard hooks. When Pereira gets in two jabs, Rountree answers with two hooks and a body shot. Pereira has a low kick checked, but two more find their home as Rountree thinks about changing stances as a limp slowly develops. When Rountree comes out swinging, Pereira intercepts with a front leg, and it nearly gives way beneath him. Rountree ducks a head kick and tags the champ with a left hook, and he goes after an inside leg kick to pay “Poatan” back for his investment in leg strikes. Rountree lands to the head and goes to the body, and he backs away. Rountree’s head kick is blocked, and Pereira tosses one back that is similarly rebounded off the guard. Rountree swipes out with a right hand, and he reaches the champ with a left as Pereira backs away. Pereira kicks him in the ribs and then steps in with a knee, and his jab snaps the head back. Rountree reacts poorly from absorbing the strikes, giving Pereira confidence. The Brazilian strides after him, finding jab after jab further damaging the nose of the challenger. They trade low kicks, and Pereira splits the guard with two punches and a knee before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Round 4
When the championship rounds hit, Pereira is quick to attack the front leg to further invest in disabling it. Rountree gives him a few kicks back to think about, and they trade front kicks as “Poatan” nods at him. It is the Brazilian’s kicks that are breaking through the defenses, and they open up strikes over the top as a jab from Pereira stings the challenger. Strikes from Pereira are starting to have additional, compounding impact on Rountree’s mug, and swelling is growing under Rountree’s right eye. Rountree tries to pay him back, but Pereira is in his stride, tagging Rountree with a flurry of fists. When Rountree starts to flag, Pereira pours it on, and this only excites Rountree. He might be hurt and bloodying up fast, but he is swinging for the fences and Pereira is not backing down. The eyebrow of Rountree is ripped wide open and hanging over Rountree’s eye, and Pereira is a man possessed. “Poatan” marches down the challenger, clubbing him with punishing strikes, picking them to the head and body and knocking Rountree around the cage. Rountree’s volume falls off a cliff, and his strikes are labored as he is low on energy. Pereira tags Rountree, and Rountree gathers every bit of energy left in him and throws back with the worst of intentions. Pereira walks him down like a Terminator, laying into him with ruthless punches and a few knees for good measure. Rountree unloads with hook after hook in hopes of keeping Pereira at bay, but Pereira is a man on a mission and knows the finish is around the corner. Rountree bounces weakly off the cage wall, and Pereira switches up his head shots to a few to the body while blood sprays everywhere. Seeing Rountree’s guard is wide open, “Poatan” splits it with a merciless uppercut and nearly dislodges the mouthpiece. Roasting Rountree’s ribs with a ruthless right and a mighty left, “The War Horse” folds like wet cardboard box. The spirit is willing but the flesh is bloody and wounded, and Rountree falls to a knee and is done. Goddard knows he needs to get involved before any further punishment is inflicted, and he waves things off to save Rountree from his impossible toughness. Pereira has done it, outlasting an extremely dangerous challenger that took the first two rounds. Pulling off the outstanding feat of three defenses in a calendar year, Pereira is entering rarified air as he adds to his legendary status. With options in several divisions, “Poatan” suggests that he will stay away from middleweight for the time being, hints about a possible heavyweight move and ultimately notes that he is happy as a light heavyweight. With the crowd in the palm of his hand, the Brazilian gets the thousands in attendance chanting his catchphrase of “Chama.” No matter who he fights next, we will be here it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Khalil Rountree R4 4:32 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Alex Pereira to win, citing his power, size, and reach advantage. He acknowledges Khalil Rountree is the most dangerous striker Pereira has faced, with lightning speed and power, but believes Pereira's kickboxing pedigree and preparation at elevation will prevail. He notes the line is juiced at -550 and does not recommend a bet at those odds, but is confident in the win. He also expresses a dream scenario of Pereira moving up to heavyweight.
Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by second-round knockout, noting that Rountree has said he won't wrestle and will strike. He believes Pereira is the better striker and has been dominant in title defenses. He acknowledges Rountree hits hard and Pereira has been knocked out before, but still favors Pereira strongly.
Cody picks Pereira because of his superior striking credentials, length, and technique. He notes that Rountree has a puncher's chance but lacks wrestling, and Pereira's path to victory is clear. He also mentions that Pereira could mix in takedowns but expects a standup fight.
Connor also picks Pereira, agreeing with Zane's assessment. He emphasizes that Rountree's best chance is a counter right hook from southpaw, but Pereira is defensively aware and can lure Rountree into coming forward. Connor notes that Pereira's low kicks and jab will force Rountree to change his approach, and that Rountree's clinch is powerful but Pereira is the bigger clinch fighter.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira. He notes that Pereira is a kickboxing champion who has beaten elite competition. He believes Rountree cannot out-technique Pereira and that his only path to victory is a power shot landing. Vreeland thinks Pereira will pick Rountree apart and likely finish him early, suggesting the under 1.5 rounds at +140 is a good bet.
Daniel Vreeland believes Alex Pereira's left hook and calf kicks will be too much for Khalil Rountree Jr. He notes that Rountree swings wide and wild, leaving openings for Pereira's counter left hook. Vreeland also points out Pereira's black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and his takedown against Adesanya as advantages. He acknowledges Rountree's power but thinks Pereira's experience against top competition will prevail.
Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira. He notes that this is a good style matchup for Pereira, as Rountree has no way to make it a grappling fight. Fox believes Pereira will win a kickboxing fight and likely knock Rountree out. He appreciates that Pereira takes any fight and finishes opponents.
The host thinks the line is a bit wide considering the fight takes place in the striking realm and Rountree has knockout power. However, he leans with Pereira's technical advantages, expecting him to keep the fight at distance and counter effectively, eventually landing a big shot (likely his left hook) to finish Rountree within two rounds.
Paul picks Pereira, acknowledging Rountree's power and improvements but emphasizing Pereira's elite striking and the fact that Rountree has never attempted a takedown in the UFC. He believes Pereira's experience and technique will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to KO Khalil Rountree Jr. in the first round. He dismisses Rountree's hype, noting his close fight with Anthony Smith and robbery win over Jacoby. He believes Pereira's composure, low kicks, and body work will be too much, and that Rountree will get caught with a left hook. He also mentions Pereira's recent injury revelation but still expects a dominant win.
Zane picks Pereira confidently, citing Pereira's ability to chew up Rountree with low kicks from long range and work his jab. He notes that Rountree's counter-punching is passive and subtractive, relying on waiting for a big mistake rather than forcing opportunities. Zane also points out that Rountree struggles under pressure and that Pereira's size and clinch work will be problematic for Rountree.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 47 of 84 | 55% | 52 of 89 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Anthony Smith | 1 | 53 of 114 | 46% | 56 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 23 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 25 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 1 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 47 of 84 | 55% | 27 of 62 | 14 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 46 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 53 of 114 | 46% | 33 of 94 | 14 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 51 of 109 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 19 of 30 | 63% | 9 of 19 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 20 of 40 | 50% | 12 of 32 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 23 of 48 | 47% | 15 of 39 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 23 of 58 | 39% | 17 of 52 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 5 of 6 | 83% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 10 of 16 | 62% | 4 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody likes Anthony Smith as a plus 190 underdog. He notes that Smith is taking the fight on short notice but is likely in shape due to his commentary work in Vegas. Cody highlights Smith's durability, cardio, and experience against top competition. He believes Smith can survive Rountree's early onslaught and take the fight to the ground, where he has a massive grappling advantage. Cody also mentions the small Apex cage helps Smith cut off the cage and get takedowns. He acknowledges Rountree's power but thinks Smith can outwork him in later rounds.
Lucrative James calls this a 'weird ass fight' and refuses to break it down in detail. He sees Khalil potentially teeing off with leg kicks and body shots, but also notes Khalil's mental inconsistency and cardio issues. He thinks Anthony Smith could out-veteran him in later rounds with takedowns, but Smith doesn't shoot takedowns much anymore. He says it's a massive stay-away and if anything, he'd play Smith as a plus-money underdog due to volatility. He makes no pick.
Paul agrees with Cody on Anthony Smith at plus 190. He notes that Smith is likely staying in shape in Vegas and has a good chance to survive Rountree's early power. Paul points out that Smith has five-round cardio and can take a shot. He thinks Smith's grappling and experience will be key, especially if he can get the fight to the mat. Paul is not a huge Smith supporter but finds the underdog price too good to pass up.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 1 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Chris Daukaus | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 1 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Chris Daukaus | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 16 of 24 | 66% | 12 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Chris Daukaus | 8 of 21 | 38% | 6 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 16 of 24 | 66% | 12 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Chris Daukaus | 8 of 21 | 38% | 6 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rountree, citing his Muay Thai, speed, and kicks as the difference. He notes Daukaus is a pure boxer who doesn't use takedowns, and the speed advantage at light heavyweight will be key. He expects a decision win.
Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree to win by first-round knockout. He notes Rountree's power and aggression when he is 'on', but questions his consistency. He doubts Daukaus's durability and speed at light heavyweight, and believes Rountree will finish him early. He mentions Daukaus's three consecutive knockout losses at heavyweight and thinks the weight cut won't help.
Cody picks Rountree, citing Daukaus' lack of cardio at heavyweight and the unknown of his 40-pound cut to light heavyweight. He notes Daukaus has never attempted a takedown in the UFC and has no history of grappling, while Rountree has shown he can go three rounds. He thinks if the fight stretches, Rountree's power and durability will prevail. He also mentions a potential live betting opportunity if Daukaus takes Rountree down early.
James has no strong opinion on this fight, calling it a 'weird one' with too much volatility. He notes Rountree is inconsistent and Daukaus is moving down in weight after three bad knockout losses. He doesn't want to speak on it further and says he has nothing to say.
Rountree is on a winning streak and has improved his confidence and aggressiveness. He is dangerous on the feet and should keep the fight upright. Daukaus is dropping to light heavyweight after three straight KO losses at heavyweight. Rountree has the power advantage and should knock him out. The fight not going to decision is a strong prop.
Paul picked Daukaus at plus 182 two weeks ago and is confident in the move to light heavyweight. He believes Daukaus' speed and power from heavyweight will translate well, and that he has a significant grappling advantage if he chooses to use it. He notes Rountree's poor ground game and thinks Daukaus can get the fight to the mat and finish. He also mentions the submission prop at 20-1 that got smashed down to 8-1.
The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. over Chris Daukaus, stating Daukaus was never good at heavyweight and is moving down to a higher skill division. He criticizes Daukaus's poor distance management and notes he has been brutally finished three times in a row. He predicts Rountree will KO Daukaus in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 120 of 255 | 47% | 122 of 257 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 85 of 237 | 35% | 88 of 241 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 35 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 20 of 57 | 35% | 22 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 39 of 105 | 37% | 40 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 35 of 88 | 39% | 36 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 47 of 84 | 55% | 47 of 84 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 30 of 92 | 32% | 30 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 120 of 255 | 47% | 69 of 194 | 27 of 34 | 24 of 27 | 116 of 250 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 85 of 237 | 35% | 49 of 193 | 18 of 23 | 18 of 21 | 80 of 231 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 34 of 66 | 51% | 12 of 38 | 12 of 16 | 10 of 12 | 34 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 20 of 57 | 35% | 11 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 39 of 105 | 37% | 30 of 93 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 39 of 105 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 35 of 88 | 39% | 20 of 72 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 35 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 47 of 84 | 55% | 27 of 63 | 10 of 11 | 10 of 10 | 43 of 79 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 30 of 92 | 32% | 18 of 77 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 88 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree Jr. to win by knockout, but admits it's a tough fight to call due to Rountree's inconsistency. He notes that if the best version of Rountree shows up, he can knock out Jacoby, who has been dropped before. He mentions the smaller cage favors Rountree's pressure. However, he acknowledges that Jacoby is the better striker and could easily outpoint Rountree if the inconsistent version appears.
Cody picks Dustin Jacoby, citing his Glory kickboxing experience, superior cardio, and technical striking. He notes that Jacoby has shown durability (surviving knockdowns against Max Grisham) and should win on volume if he doesn't get knocked out. Cody acknowledges Khalil Rountree's power and potential but believes Jacoby's kickboxing skills will prevail in a 15-minute striking battle.
Daniel Levi picks Dustin Jacoby, citing his consistency, kickboxing experience (Glory), and titanium plate in his forearm that adds power. He acknowledges Khalil Rountree's knockout power and inconsistency, but trusts Jacoby's process. He is not betting due to the risk of Rountree's power, but picks Jacoby to win.
Jacob is confident in Dustin Jacoby, calling him a real deal striker with great kickboxing. He acknowledges Rountree's power and inconsistency but believes technique wins. Jacoby can defend takedowns and should outpoint Rountree, though he admits bias.
Jacoby's disciplined striking, footwork, and distance management will neutralize Rountree's power. Rountree's confidence is high but he struggles against technical strikers. Jacoby has more paths to victory and should win a decision. A small one-unit bet on Jacoby is recommended.
Paul is tempted by Khalil Rountree as a plus-money underdog, noting his sheer power and aggression. He mentions that when Rountree is in shape and motivated (as seen against Modestas Bukauskas and Karl Roberson), he can be dangerous. Paul says he needs to see the weigh-ins and dig into Rountree's personal life before deciding, but considers Rountree the most live underdog on the card.
The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby over Khalil Rountree, noting that Rountree's wins are against low-level opponents and he lost to Marcin Prachnio, who Jacoby should outperform. He highlights Jacoby's kickboxing credentials, reach, and chin, and believes Jacoby will fight on the outside, avoid Rountree's power, and win by 30-27 decision. He expects Rountree to have moments but fade.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 2 | 26 of 69 | 37% | 26 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 18 of 54 | 33% | 18 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 17 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 2 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 26 of 69 | 37% | 16 of 53 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 7 | 17 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Karl Roberson | 17 of 28 | 60% | 4 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 18 of 54 | 33% | 10 of 41 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 48 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Roberson | 17 of 27 | 62% | 4 of 9 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight edge to Karl Roberson because he believes Roberson can hang in the striking and has a clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes that the skill gap on the ground is wider than on the feet, favoring Roberson. However, he acknowledges that Khalil Rountree is a very good striker and could knock Roberson out at any moment.
Big Brady picks Karl Roberson to win by third-round submission. He notes Roberson has never been knocked out and has underrated grappling, despite being submitted by elite grapplers. He points out that Rountree has zero takedowns in 11 UFC fights, so Roberson will likely keep the fight standing where he is the better striker. He also thinks Roberson can mix in takedowns and submit Rountree, who has poor takedown defense (50%). He expects Roberson to out-strike Rountree for two rounds then get a submission in the third.
Cody leans Rountree, citing his durability, power, and pressure. He notes Roberson's ground game is weak but Rountree won't exploit it. He sees it as a striking battle where Rountree's forward pressure and power give him the edge.
Daniel Levi leans with Khalil Rountree Jr., citing his speed advantage and the fact that when Rountree is mentally on and there's no takedown threat, he can be a serious problem. He notes that both fighters have been flaky and can't be fully trusted, but Rountree's speed gives him the edge. Levi acknowledges that Karl Roberson might be tougher but thinks Rountree's speed is the difference.
Roberson is seen as the more technical striker with a better overall MMA game, including grappling and clinch work. He can nullify Rountree's early power and then chip away with kicks and takedowns. Rountree has been inconsistent, with losses to Prachnio and Cutelaba. Roberson is expected to win via decision, using a grapple-heavy game plan.
Paul has no clear pick, calling it a dogger pass. He notes both fighters have moments but he doesn't trust either. He mentions Rountree's inconsistency and Roberson's cancellations.
The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. over Karl Roberson, expecting a stand-up contest. He believes Rountree has a big advantage on the feet and will pull the trigger more than in his last fight. He predicts a KO in round two, as Rountree lands powerful shots and gains respect. He notes that Roberson has shown some grappling ability but doesn't think it will be enough to stop Rountree.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 23 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 1 | 38 of 92 | 41% | 38 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 28 of 65 | 43% | 28 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 1 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 23 of 49 | 46% | 18 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 38 of 92 | 41% | 18 of 71 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 13 | 38 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 18 of 36 | 50% | 13 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 28 of 65 | 43% | 15 of 52 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 28 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 5 of 13 | 38% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 10 of 27 | 37% | 3 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
A light heavyweight brawl should excite fans in this next one, when Bukauskas (11-4, 1-2 UFC) and Rountree (8-5, 1 NC; 4-5, 1 NC UFC) vie for a .500 record inside the Octagon. Something’s gotta give, and referee Herb Dean has been assigned to keep things up on the up-and-up. The gloves are not touched, and the hands are about to be traded. Bukauskas is the first to throw a strike, and Rountree prepares a big right hand counter. Rountree catches Bukauskas backing up, snapping his head back with a left hand. Rountree already knows he has his man hurt, and he starts smashing his fists into Bukauskas’ face. Rountree chases him into the wall, unloads on him, and Bukauskas runs away. This happens a few more times, with Rountree aggressively throwing deadly powerful blows that knock Bukauskas around the cage. Bukauskas’ eyes are wide open as Rountree stalks him down with murder in his eyes, and the huge punches have shattered the Lithuanian’s nose. Rountree does not recklessly pursue a finish, instead marching him down with hammers. Bukauskas tries to keep him backed off with a jab, but Rountree pounces with power punches to the busted nose and body. The American plods ahead, sizing up his strikes and waiting for openings to drop bombs. As Bukauskas gets his wits about him after every damaging blow, the onslaught of Rountree begins to slow. Rountree ends a combination with a thudding leg kick, and he stings Bukauskas again with a right hand. Bukauskas tries to step in to throw back, but Rountree snipes him on the way in. Bukauskas swipes out with a left hook, and Dean is quick to warn him for outstretched fingers. Rountree follows him with a slapping leg kick, and another right hand forces blood to splatter out of Bukauskas’ nose. “The Baltic Gladiator” goes up high with a kick, and when it is blocked, Rountree slams his foot in the thigh. A large welt has formed on the top of Bukauskas’ thigh from the kicks, and Rountree lays into him with a final combination that makes Bukauskas turn around. He cannot finish the job, and Bukauskas survives the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Round 2
Rountree takes the center of the cage, ready to unload with a big right hand, and the two nearly connect with these blows. When they come up short, Rountree chops at the swelling leg like he were a 2021 Pedro Rizzo. The kicks have actually drawn blood on the thigh, but Bukauskas pays it no mind as he tries to bounce himself off the fence. Rountree marches on, landing a punch to send Bukauskas careening towards the cage wall. Bukauskas gathers his thoughts and tries to figure out a way to land a jab or some meaningful offense, as Rountree kicks at that bloody spot on the leg and a right hand to follow. Bukauskas strikes back, but Rountree shrugs it off, lands a kick to the knee and then lifts his leg up several times like a muay Thai fighter.
Bukauskas lunges forward with his lead leg planted, and Rountree times it perfectly by stomping it with a short side kick that sends Bukauskas falling down to the canvas screaming.
The fight is immediately over and Rountree knows his work here is done, and Dean runs over to attend to the fallen fighter. After several minutes of medical attention, Bukauskas receives a leg brace and is helped to his feet and out of the cage. In the post-fight interview, commentator Michael Bisping remarks that the doctor informed him that multiple ligaments for Bukauskas are likely shredded.
The Official Result
Khalil Rountree def. Modestas Bukauskas R2 2:30 via TKO (Leg Kick)
Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree to win by first-round knockout, but with low confidence due to Rountree's inconsistency. He notes Rountree has tremendous power but sometimes fails to show up (e.g., loss to Marcin Prachnio). Bukauskas is hittable (50% striking defense) and chinny, making him a good target for Rountree's power. However, Brady is not betting Rountree because of the unpredictability.
Cody picks Bukauskas but suggests waiting for a live line after the first round. He notes Rountree's power and first-round threat, but thinks Bukauskas has better cardio and reach, and can survive the initial onslaught. He expects Bukauskas to take over in later rounds if he survives round one.
I don't trust Rountree in a fight that goes long because his cardio fades, but he's dangerous early with fast hands and hard kicks. Bukauskas has a shaky chin and is hittable. Rountree's knockdown rate is about 4.5%, and most of his wins come in round one. I think there's a 25-30% chance he puts Bukauskas out early. The plus 500 on Rountree round one is good value. I'm not betting the moneyline because if it goes to decision, Bukauskas likely wins.
Paul is uncertain, calling it a landmine fight. He notes Rountree's inconsistency and Bukauskas's defensive issues. He mentions Rountree by KO at +250 as a possible play but doesn't commit to a pick.
The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by decision. He questions Khalil Rountree's hunger after his performance against Marcin Prachnio, where Rountree seemed to lack drive. He believes Bukauskas, who trained with Jon Jones at Jackson Wink, has more desire and will out-volume Rountree with punches at range, mixing in grappling to gas Rountree out.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree Jr. confidently, citing Prachnio's poor striking defense and tendency to get knocked out in the first round (three times in UFC). He notes Rountree has finished five of eight wins in the first round. He predicts a first-round knockout and likes the Rountree round one prop at +175.
Daniel Levi picks Khalil Rountree Jr. by first-round knockout, noting Prachnio has been knocked out in the first round in all three UFC fights. He believes Rountree's speed and striking improvements in Thailand will be too much for Prachnio, who is too slow and doesn't belong in the UFC.
Both fighters have sketchy chins and a high percentage of their fights ending under 1.5 rounds. Prachnio has diminishing durability and has been knocked out in his last three fights. Rountree has power and should be able to land a counter or follow-up shots. I expect a knockout from Rountree, likely in the first round. The under 1.5 rounds is a solid bet given the statistics and the matchup.
The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. to win by first-round TKO, calling Marcin Prachnio overmatched and past his prime. He notes Prachnio was brutally KO'd by Mike Rodriguez in his last fight and is taking a quick turnaround. He believes Rountree's striking will be too much, and he predicts a brutal finish via overhand right or similar shot. He expresses hope Rountree doesn't retire.
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