vs
-649 +450
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021 · Catchweight (157 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 Next Fight
Age 29
Height 5' 7"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Arman Tsarukyan
3.85 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
1.8 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
3.26 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Matt Frevola
3.3 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.76 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
2.34 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
40.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Arman Tsarukyan
Moneyline
BetWay -649
KO/TKO
BetWay +260
Submission
BetWay +450
Decision
BetWay -125
Matt Frevola
Moneyline
BetWay +450
KO/TKO
BetWay +1400
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
BetWay +900
Arman Tsarukyan - Fight History
WIN vs Dan Hooker
Submission R2 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 42 of 60 70% 69 of 89 2 of 4 50% 1 0 6:02
Dan Hooker 0 10 of 33 30% 17 of 41 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 19 of 30 63% 32 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:16
Dan Hooker 0 5 of 20 25% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 23 of 30 76% 37 of 44 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:46
Dan Hooker 0 5 of 13 38% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 42 of 60 70% 33 of 49 3 of 5 6 of 6 18 of 31 2 of 2 22 of 27
Dan Hooker 10 of 33 30% 3 of 20 6 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 30 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 19 of 30 63% 12 of 22 2 of 3 5 of 5 15 of 26 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dan Hooker 5 of 20 25% 2 of 13 2 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Arman Tsarukyan 23 of 30 76% 21 of 27 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 25
Dan Hooker 5 of 13 38% 1 of 7 4 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo leans Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker, but calls the -550 odds insane. He notes Tsarukyan's wrestling and striking are elite, but Hooker has heart and takedown defense, as seen against Gamrot. Tsarukyan should get takedowns and control Hooker, but Hooker could make it a dogfight. Angelo suggests Hooker at +5.5 is a decent bet.

Minus 550 is insane; Dan Hooker at plus five and a half seems like it could be a decent bet.
"I have to slightly lean Arman Sooqi because of the wrestling upside, but minus 550 is insane."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan (Magomed Ankalaev) by third-round KO, citing his championship caliber and youth. He notes Hooker's struggles against top competition and expects Ankalaev to finish him via TKO on the mat or a big shot on the feet.

third round KO
"I'm going to take Magomed Ankalaev to win this fight and win it by third round KO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Arman Tsarukyan but is hesitant due to the betting line. He notes Arman has the grappling edge and is younger, but Dan Hooker thrives in five-round fights and has a decent get-up game. Cody worries about Arman's past fatigue and the possibility of judges favoring damage over control time in Qatar. He suggests hedging after the first round if Hooker is still competitive.

"I got Arman Sukian, but I'm not loving the number I'm getting here, Paul."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Connor picks Tsarukyan as a knee-jerk reaction, citing his elite grappling and top control. He notes Hooker's vulnerability to early finishes and slow starts, but acknowledges Hooker's toughness and 25% chance of a KO. Connor emphasizes Tsarukyan's bullying style and potential to finish quickly on the ground.

Tsarukyan by submission or early KO; Hooker has 25% chance to clip him
"I'm picking Suruken, but I still like this fight. You know, I think, I guess all of this is to say that like, I think you have to pick Suruken as just sort of a knee-jerk reaction to this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Lucrative James picks Arman Tsarukyan despite rooting for Dan Hooker. He cites Arman's elite wrestling as the key factor, noting Hooker's historical struggles with grapplers. He mentions Arman's age advantage (29 vs 35), recent training with the Russian Olympic wrestling team, and improved submission game. He also notes Hooker's inactivity and hand surgery concerns. However, he acknowledges Hooker's dangerous striking and hopes for an upset.

submission prop mentioned as potentially live
"I do think Arman Surukin is going to win this matchup. That would be my pick gun to my head."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan is a top lightweight with elite wrestling and cardio. Hooker is durable but has taken a lot of damage. Tsarukyan should dominate with grappling and pressure, winning by decision or late finish. The method is uncertain but the win is solid.

"I think Sukian wins. I think he wins at a pretty decent clip."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Paul leans towards Dan Hooker as a plus money underdog, citing value at plus 420. He acknowledges Arman's takedowns are the path of least resistance against Hooker, but believes Hooker can hang around and make it competitive. Paul mentions that if forced to bet one side right now, he'd take Hooker, but he doesn't have to bet it.

"I'd probably take this plus 420 on Dan Hooker."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker, citing Arman's superior grappling and ability to maintain dominant positions. He notes Hooker's broken arms and believes Arman will finish him via ground and pound in round two or three. He acknowledges Hooker's underrated takedown defense but trusts Arman's improvement.

second or third round mount ground and pound TKO
"I'm going to go with Arman Tsarukyan here over Dan Hooker."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Tsarukyan due to his superior wrestling and top control. He notes Hooker's tendency to start slow and get overwhelmed, but also mentions Hooker's durability and ability to make fights competitive over five rounds. Zane highlights Tsarukyan's power and speed as key factors.

Tsarukyan by finish; Hooker could make it a war
"I fully believe that Armand Suruken can do both of those things. You know, he has the power to do that, to do either, to just go out and flatten Hooker or to go out, take him down and break …"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 19 of 37 51% 33 of 53 0 of 0 --- 4 1 2:32
Charles Oliveira 0 49 of 83 59% 75 of 117 2 of 4 50% 0 1 8:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 9 of 11 81% 12 of 14 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:44
Charles Oliveira 0 9 of 16 56% 19 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:42
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 5 of 9 55% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Oliveira 0 22 of 36 61% 38 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:49
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 5 of 17 29% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:48
Charles Oliveira 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 19 of 37 51% 11 of 22 5 of 9 3 of 6 7 of 24 6 of 6 6 of 7
Charles Oliveira 49 of 83 59% 37 of 69 10 of 11 2 of 3 23 of 50 3 of 4 23 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 9 of 11 81% 5 of 6 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 5
Charles Oliveira 9 of 16 56% 6 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 5 of 7
2 Arman Tsarukyan 5 of 9 55% 4 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 2
Charles Oliveira 22 of 36 61% 19 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 1 9 of 18 1 of 2 12 of 16
3 Arman Tsarukyan 5 of 17 29% 2 of 10 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0
Charles Oliveira 18 of 31 58% 12 of 25 5 of 5 1 of 1 11 of 24 1 of 1 6 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, comparing him to Islam Makhachev with slightly better striking and slightly worse wrestling. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling will be too much for Oliveira, similar to how Islam submitted him. He notes the public heavily favors Oliveira but the oddsmakers have Tsarukyan as favorite for a reason.

"I think Armen is basically Islam I think he's got slightly better striking slightly worse wrestling and I think he wins here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody believes Charles Oliveira's defensive flaws will be exposed. He notes Oliveira takes a lot of damage and relies on comebacks, which is unsustainable. Tsarukyan is a strong wrestler with good takedown defense (only taken down by Islam Makhachev and a former KSW champion). Cody thinks Oliveira won't be able to take Tsarukyan down, forcing a striking battle where Tsarukyan's power and youth will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's impressive physique and recent knockout of Beneil Dariush. Cody sees Tsarukyan as the fresher, ascending fighter who will eventually land a big right hand and finish Oliveira.

"I do favor Armen suuki to get the job done."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Vreeland picks Arman Tsarukyan, agreeing with guest Giani that Tsarukyan's wrestling and pressure will be key. He notes that Tsarukyan is younger, has a comparable style to Islam Makhachev, and will not hesitate to follow Oliveira to the ground. Vreeland believes Oliveira's submission threat is real but Tsarukyan's top control and ground-and-pound will win rounds.

"I'm on Arman as well"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Vreeland picks Arman Tsarukyan, noting that the line is a bit wide but he likes Tsarukyan's youth and finishing ability. He mentions that Tsarukyan's grappling and wrestling are top-notch, and that Oliveira will struggle to get takedowns. He also notes that Tsarukyan has power on the feet and less mileage than Oliveira.

"I'm taking San excuse me as well I thought you were going Charlie Alives this is the one I differing on yeah okay maybe won't differ in any no I'll take cin much younger and is uh you know been …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Jeff Fox picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing that the only fighters who have given Oliveira trouble are exceptional wrestlers. He notes that Oliveira's takedown game won't be enough against Tsarukyan's wrestling, and that Tsarukyan's kickboxing will take over. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's scrambles with Islam Makhachev on short notice show his level.

"I am going to go with Arman cuki in uh largely because if you look at the type of people who have ever given him trouble it's always exceptional wrestlers"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He mentions that bookmakers expect Arman Tsarukyan to win as a decent favorite, and that if he wins, a rematch with Islam Makhachev is likely. He calls it a banger but does not state his own prediction.

"if Arman Tsarukyan wins that fight which the bookmakers expect him to do as a decent sized favorite then you already know they're going to do the Islam rematch"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan will nullify Oliveira's grappling and his submission defense will keep Oliveira in bad positions. Tsarukyan's big power on the feet will find Oliveira's chin and knock him out within two rounds.

knockout within two rounds
"I ultimately think it's going to be sarin's big Power on his feet that eventually finds the chin of Oliva and he knocks him out within two rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul sees Tsarukyan as the fresher fighter with fewer miles. He notes that Tsarukyan's short-notice fight against Islam Makhachev was competitive and looks good in hindsight. Paul points out that Tsarukyan has a good chin and has only been knocked out once, early in his career. He expects Charles to come out hot and have early success, but Tsarukyan will weather the storm and take over. Paul also mentions that if Tsarukyan scores takedowns, he must be careful of Oliveira's guard, but he believes Tsarukyan's youth and power will be the difference.

"I get that... I expect Charles to probably come out hot have some real success early but outside of getting knocked out super super early... hasn't been knocked out... I think suin is the fresher guy in shape headed upwards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira to submit Arman Tsarukyan via guillotine in round one. He believes Oliveira will wobble Tsarukyan with a left hook, prompting a panicked takedown attempt that Oliveira will capitalize on. He dismisses Tsarukyan's grappling credentials, noting he was wobbled by Walkin Silva.

guillotine round one
"Charles Ola guillotining the [ __ ] out of you badly after rocking you with a left hook."
KO (knee and punches) R1 1:04 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Beneil Dariush 1 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Beneil Dariush 1 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Beneil Dariush 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 2 of 2 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Beneil Dariush 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 2 of 2 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tsarukyan (-278), Dariush (+225)

Round 1
Lightweights close the show in the five-round headliner, where Dariush (22-5-1, 16-5-1 UFC) sets his sights on Tsarukyan (20-3, 7-2 UFC) at 155 pounds. Tsarukyan has rattled off eight victories across his past nine outings.
For more on the American Top Team standout, see “Rivalries: Arman Tsarukyan” in Features
. Smith administers the law and order once the Octagon door closes. They touch gloves to get us started in the final bout of the night. Dariush fires an inside leg kick, eats a jab and then attacks the leg again.
Tsarukyan steps forward with a knee and follows it with a brutal right hook, dropping Dariush where he stands. He then dives in with punches and pounds Dariush unconscious. A signature victory for the young lightweight contender
.

The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Beneil Dariush—KO (Punches) 1:04 R1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing youth, cardio, and durability advantages. He notes Dariush has been finished in all five of his losses, and that Tsarukyan's relentless pace will break him down in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round TKO, as Tsarukyan's ground and pound and big shots will eventually finish Dariush.

third round TKO
"I see suruki going out there and getting a third round TKO in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Tsarukyan but acknowledges Dariush's skills and path to victory. He notes Dariush's cardio, high ring IQ, and BJJ black belt, but thinks Tsarukyan's speed and youth are decisive. He mentions Tsarukyan's five-round experience and that he's only getting better. He doesn't love the money line but expects Tsarukyan to win, possibly by finish.

decision props considered but not bet
"I think darush is a lot a bigger like the it's a good plus money for sure and he's he he I think he's gonna give a better account of himself than that might dictate but it's not enough for …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Lucrative James picks Beneil Dariush, stating that the line is wide and disrespectful at +240. He believes Dariush can defend takedowns and scramble well, and is the better striker. He notes that Tsarukyan's youth and tenacity could be a factor in a five-round fight, but still sees Dariush as the side. He would go heavy on Dariush if it were a three-round fight.

"I definitely think benil darush is wied I think that darus is going to be able to defend the takedowns early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan has high-level wrestling and improving striking, and he is expected to control the fight with his grappling and striking advantage. However, Dariush is a live underdog with great scrambling and BJJ, making the fight closer than the odds suggest. Tsarukyan is predicted to win by decision over 3.5 rounds, but a small underdog shot on Dariush is also recommended due to value.

over 3.5 rounds, decision win predicted, half unit shot on Dariush mentioned
"prediction is suin but I am not touching that chalk darush is way more alive than plus 260 indicates"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul thinks Tsarukyan is the rightful favorite due to a sizable speed advantage and good enough grappling to avoid submissions. He notes the line is wide but doesn't see much value at -310. He mentions Tsarukyan's speed in striking and entrances/exits as the biggest difference. He is not lining up to bet it but picks Tsarukyan.

"I think arman's a rightful favorite not one that I'm lining up to uh to go bet this week but suian is the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan, believing his youth, wrestling, and striking will be too much for Beneil Dariush. He notes Tsarukyan's reach advantage and ability to win the leg kick battle. He predicts Tsarukyan will break Dariush down and win by TKO in the fourth round.

TKO in fourth round
"I'm going Arman Tsarukyan... I think he can pick at Dariush, annoy him, frustrate him, hurt him to the body and legs, break him down and I think he beats him by TKO in the fourth round."
WIN vs Joaquim Silva
TKO (punches) R3 3:25 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 80 of 115 69% 134 of 175 4 of 5 80% 0 0 9:01
Joaquim Silva 0 23 of 41 56% 77 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 12 of 13 92% 28 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:26
Joaquim Silva 0 2 of 3 66% 27 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 33 of 57 57% 39 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Joaquim Silva 0 16 of 30 53% 41 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 35 of 45 77% 67 of 83 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:48
Joaquim Silva 0 5 of 8 62% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 80 of 115 69% 64 of 95 13 of 17 3 of 3 32 of 64 7 of 8 41 of 43
Joaquim Silva 23 of 41 56% 11 of 27 9 of 11 3 of 3 11 of 25 10 of 13 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 12 of 13 92% 9 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 9
Joaquim Silva 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Arman Tsarukyan 33 of 57 57% 23 of 43 7 of 11 3 of 3 23 of 46 6 of 7 4 of 4
Joaquim Silva 16 of 30 53% 8 of 20 6 of 8 2 of 2 8 of 19 7 of 10 1 of 1
3 Arman Tsarukyan 35 of 45 77% 32 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 28 of 30
Joaquim Silva 5 of 8 62% 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo is extremely confident in Arman Tsarukyan, calling him a massive favorite. He expects Tsarukyan to dominate with relentless wrestling, avoiding Silva's submissions. Silva has knockout power but will be defending takedowns the entire time. Angelo says there is no reason to overcomplicate this pick.

"Armin is a minus 1100 favorite there is no reason to over complicate this armin's gonna dominate with the wrestling he's gonna avoid the submissions"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by first-round knockout. He calls this an astronomical step down in competition for Tsarukyan, who has fought top-tier opponents like Islam Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot. Brady believes Tsarukyan will get takedowns at will, as Silva's takedown defense and durability are poor. He expects a vicious finish, either by knockout on the feet or TKO via ground and pound, similar to Tsarukyan's win over Joel Alvarez. Brady questions why this fight was even made.

"I think saruki and not only wins this fight but wins it in uh vicious fashion and probably a first round finish."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody sees this as a massive step down for Tsarukyan, who has been fighting elite competition. He expects Tsarukyan to win easily, likely by TKO in the second round, as Tsarukyan has a traditional Russian grinding style that breaks down lesser opponents. He notes Silva is a banger with knockout power but poor takedown defense, and at 34, his skills aren't improving. Cody thinks Tsarukyan will take him down and finish him in the second round.

Tsarukyan wins in round 2 at +300; mentions prop hunting
"I would think in the second round he's not necessarily like I need to kill you in the first round as much as he's got that traditional Russian style where he's gonna grind on you and lean on you and …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Tsarukyan a 'gimme matchup' for Silva. He highlights Tsarukyan's elite grappling and physicality, and notes that Silva's only path to victory is an early knockout. Connor is confident Tsarukyan will dominate with his wrestling and pressure.

"This is a gimme matchup, but to layup."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by knockout in round one or two. He notes Tsarukyan's improved striking and power, and expects a dominant performance. He compares it to the Giagos fight where Tsarukyan finished quickly, rather than the Fiziev fight which was more competitive. He respects Silva but sees a clear mismatch.

knockout round 1, knockout round 2
"I like The Knockout round one for most of what I'm gonna put down on it and then some knockout round two"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan can dominate Silva anywhere and will finish him. He is a solid grappler with improving striking and cardio. Silva is a BJJ black belt but prefers striking and has been knocked out in recent fights. Tsarukyan should make an emphatic statement. The pick is Tsarukyan inside the distance rather than the heavy moneyline.

Tsarukyan inside the distance
"I'll be looking at that walk uh sarukian inside the distance line rather than taking the minus 1000... give me sarukin via KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul agrees Tsarukyan is a justifiable massive favorite, but he doesn't see an edge in betting the moneyline at -1000. He prefers to chase a prop or just avoid the fight entirely. He notes that Tsarukyan is 26, improving, and has gone five rounds before, while Silva is a banger with nothing to lose but likely gets taken down and finished.

suggests chasing a prop or avoiding the fight; mentions Tsarukyan by second round TKO
"you definitely gotta chase a prop here or just don't like I mean I probably just want that this fight at all because that's just not how I roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan easily, calling it a straightforward matchup. He notes Silva has been KO'd by Ricky Glenn and Nazareno Malegarie, and hasn't had a first-round finish since 2014. He expects Tsarukyan to stay calm, out-strike Silva, and get a late TKO.

"I'm going to be going with Armand sarukian I reckon he wins this matchup pretty easily"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Zane sees this as a complete stylistic layup for Tsarukyan. He notes that Tsarukyan is one of the best wrestler-grapplers in the sport, while Silva is a dynamic but limited striker who struggles against physical pressure. Zane believes Tsarukyan will bully Silva on the feet and take him down at will, making Silva's only chance a flying knee in the first minute.

"It's a layup. Like it is a complete stylistic layup."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 34 of 81 41% 50 of 105 7 of 21 33% 0 0 9:25
Damir Ismagulov 0 36 of 86 41% 51 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 9 of 23 39% 15 of 29 1 of 10 10% 0 0 3:04
Damir Ismagulov 0 13 of 26 50% 24 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 12 of 27 44% 18 of 35 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:24
Damir Ismagulov 0 11 of 28 39% 13 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 13 of 31 41% 17 of 41 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:57
Damir Ismagulov 0 12 of 32 37% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 34 of 81 41% 14 of 57 12 of 15 8 of 9 31 of 76 2 of 4 1 of 1
Damir Ismagulov 36 of 86 41% 18 of 60 15 of 21 3 of 5 26 of 74 10 of 11 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 9 of 23 39% 2 of 14 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 13 of 26 50% 7 of 18 4 of 5 2 of 3 13 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Arman Tsarukyan 12 of 27 44% 7 of 21 3 of 3 2 of 3 9 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Damir Ismagulov 11 of 28 39% 6 of 18 5 of 9 0 of 1 7 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Arman Tsarukyan 13 of 31 41% 5 of 22 6 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Damir Ismagulov 12 of 32 37% 5 of 24 6 of 7 1 of 1 6 of 26 6 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, his guy, hoping the loss to Gamrot helps him improve. He notes that Damir is not the wrestler Gamrot is, so he sees Arman getting takedowns and winning the scrambles. He acknowledges Arman faded in his last fight but this is a three-round fight, which favors him.

Plans to bet on Arman more takedowns (prop bet) because Damir won't take him down
"I'm gonna stick with my guy here I'm hoping that loss to gamrat just sort of helps moving him forward"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Tsarukyan, citing his elite wrestling and power advantage. He notes Ismagulov has 90% takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler like Tsarukyan. He thinks Tsarukyan will mix in takedowns and win a competitive decision. He wants to see Ismagulov's weight cut but leans Tsarukyan.

Tsarukyan wins by decision
"I gotta go with saruki in here and I will take him to win by decision but I think it's going to be a pretty close one here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damir Ismagulov

Cody likes Ismagulov as an underdog because of his well-rounded skills, solid takedown defense, and durability. He thinks Ismagulov can stay on the outside, use his jab, and stifle Tsarukyan's takedowns to win a striking battle. He notes Tsarukyan is still green and was taken down by Gamrot, which raises questions.

plus 165 underdog
"at plus 165 I feel like you can get worse underdogs... I'm not gonna lie man this is a 14 fight card... 165 one of the better ones that I did like"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Damir Ismagulov

Ismagulov is very talented and this should be a 50/50 fight. He didn't show his best in his last two fights due to long layoffs, but this is his second fight in six months, so he should be in better shape. He can be defensively responsible with his grappling and outstrike Tsarukyan on the feet. The line is too wide in favor of Tsarukyan.

1 unit at +159
"this fight should really be a 50 50 fight it should be minus 110 on both sides as Israel gulab is very talented"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul picks Tsarukyan, believing he is a top talent with all the skills. He thinks Tsarukyan will land takedowns and is super quick on the feet. He notes Tsarukyan is young and still developing, expecting to see the best version of him. He is not confident enough to bet but picks him.

"I'm gonna pick saruki and I think he will be able to uh land some takedowns here... I expect to see the best arm and Armin sarukian that we have seen to date"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Damir Ismagulov, noting the three-round fight favors Tsarukyan's cardio. He believes Tsarukyan's lead switch kick to the body will be effective against Ismagulov's high guard, and that Ismagulov doesn't have the offensive grappling of Mateusz Gamrot to threaten takedowns. He also thinks Ismagulov took damage in his last fight against Guram Kutateladze. He predicts Tsarukyan's higher fight IQ and youth (26) will lead to a win.

"I'm gonna go if I'm in saruki in here over damira's magulov"
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 1 95 of 247 38% 110 of 264 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:39
Arman Tsarukyan 0 81 of 138 58% 108 of 166 6 of 21 28% 0 0 4:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 15 of 37 40% 19 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Arman Tsarukyan 0 10 of 19 52% 11 of 20 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:24
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 19 of 64 29% 21 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Arman Tsarukyan 0 18 of 38 47% 21 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 22 of 45 48% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Arman Tsarukyan 0 20 of 33 60% 30 of 43 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:20
4 Mateusz Gamrot 1 16 of 47 34% 18 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Arman Tsarukyan 0 13 of 23 56% 18 of 29 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:41
5 Mateusz Gamrot 0 23 of 54 42% 29 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Arman Tsarukyan 0 20 of 25 80% 28 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 95 of 247 38% 43 of 182 39 of 48 13 of 17 88 of 235 3 of 6 4 of 6
Arman Tsarukyan 81 of 138 58% 68 of 121 9 of 12 4 of 5 73 of 129 4 of 5 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 15 of 37 40% 3 of 21 7 of 9 5 of 7 14 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Arman Tsarukyan 10 of 19 52% 6 of 13 2 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 19 of 64 29% 7 of 47 9 of 12 3 of 5 18 of 62 0 of 1 1 of 1
Arman Tsarukyan 18 of 38 47% 13 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 36 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Mateusz Gamrot 22 of 45 48% 11 of 33 8 of 9 3 of 3 20 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Arman Tsarukyan 20 of 33 60% 19 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 1 18 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Mateusz Gamrot 16 of 47 34% 9 of 38 7 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 45 0 of 1 1 of 1
Arman Tsarukyan 13 of 23 56% 12 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Mateusz Gamrot 23 of 54 42% 13 of 43 8 of 9 2 of 2 21 of 49 0 of 1 2 of 4
Arman Tsarukyan 20 of 25 80% 18 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 22 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan but bets on Mateusz Gamrot via buying points. He notes both are mirror images as wrestlers with improving hands, but Tsarukyan has never been out-wrestled except by Islam Makhachev, while Gamrot has struggled with takedown efficiency in some fights. He expects a close decision and buys +5.5 points on Gamrot, believing Gamrot can steal rounds on scorecards.

bought +5.5 points on Mateusz Gamrot (buying points on scorecard)
"the pick's gonna be armin but the bet here is plus five and a half on gamron because i absolutely think he can steal some points on some judge's core cards"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling will be the difference, getting takedowns and controlling Gamrot. He notes Tsarukyan's youth (25 vs 31), improved striking, and success against Islam Makhachev. He questions Gamrot's cardio in a five-round fight (Gamrot admitted doubts about cardio in a three-round fight). He expects a back-and-forth fight but Tsarukyan winning minutes with takedowns and top control. He says the line is wide but Tsarukyan is the pick.

"i like armin here um the line's wide it really is gameron is very good but i just feel like armin is going to be the one getting takedowns and just going to rinse to repeat"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody agrees with Paul, but thinks Gamrot is a live dog. He notes Gamrot's slow starts and potential cardio issues in a five-round fight. He believes Tsarukyan's speed and power will be too much, and he also likes Tsarukyan by decision.

Tsarukyan by decision +150 at DraftKings
"i'm gonna agree that i think sirikin wins the fight just three to one three to one is like supposed to be a walk in the park right he should be able to go out there and dominate gamron i …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul thinks Tsarukyan is the total package with elite striking and grappling, and he's only 24. He notes the price is a bit wide but Tsarukyan is a rightful favorite. He expects Tsarukyan to win, possibly by decision, and mentions Tsarukyan decision at +150 as a prop.

Tsarukyan by decision +150 at DraftKings
"I love saruka i think he's got the he's the total package he's like 24 years old still striking is on point grappling is is elites"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The host picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing his consistent cardio and ability to improve as the fight goes on. He notes Gamrot slows down in later rounds, as seen against Diego Ferreira. He expects Tsarukyan to take over in rounds 3-5 and predicts a fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Gamrot's explosiveness but believes Tsarukyan's overall game is superior.

fourth round TKO prediction
"i'm going to go with arm and saruki in here"
WIN vs Joel Alvarez
TKO (punches) R2 1:57 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joel Alvarez 0 36 of 53 67% 93 of 122 2 of 2 100% 0 0 6:08
Arman Tsarukyan 0 7 of 10 70% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joel Alvarez 0 13 of 19 68% 50 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:22
Arman Tsarukyan 0 5 of 8 62% 25 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Joel Alvarez 0 23 of 34 67% 43 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:46
Arman Tsarukyan 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joel Alvarez 36 of 53 67% 31 of 48 3 of 3 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 32 of 44
Arman Tsarukyan 7 of 10 70% 5 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joel Alvarez 13 of 19 68% 10 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 12
Arman Tsarukyan 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Joel Alvarez 23 of 34 67% 21 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 23 of 32
Arman Tsarukyan 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez

Round 1
It’s a pairing of four-fight winning streaks for these lightweight prospects, and Chris Tognoni will referee the bout. Tsarukyan sticks a jab early. Tsarukyan kicks Alvarez’s leg and is able to score a takedown with his opponent off balance. Tsarukyan is now inside the lanky Spaniard’s guard. Alvarez lands an elbow from his back. Tsarukyan remains heavy on top, and he’s working diligently to pass to half guard. Alvarez does a good job preventing the pass. Tsarukyan drops an elbow from above. Alvarez is active with his guard and lands a hammerfist from his back. Tsarukyan floats into a front headlock before finding himself in the full guard of his opponent. A slashing elbow lands for Tsarukyan, who then lands a short elbow to the face. It’s control time galore for the Russian standout, and another elbow cuts Alvarez wide open. Alvarez is just gushing blood in the waning seconds, and Tsarukyan is pouring it on. Another elbow lands before the horn. The fight could be in danger of being stopped between rounds, as Alvarez’s face is a crimson mask.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan

Round 2
Amazingly, Alvarez is allowed to continue for another round after a brief examination from the cageside doctor. Tsarukyan shoots immediately. Alvarez looks for a guillotine but his foe passes to side control. Tsarukyan briefly achieves a mounted crucifix but Alvarez frees his arm. From side control, Tsarukyan drops brual elbows and punches, and Alvarez is spewing blood again, his vision obviously obscured. Alvarez is on all fours, eating punches. The Spaniard attempts to stand, and Tsarukyan ragdolls him back down near the fence. More punches from Tsarukyan, and Tognoni urges Alvarez to fight back.
From back mount, Tsarukyan controls the wrists and unloads with more left hands. Tognoni has finally seen enough and mercifully calls off the fight.

The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Joel Alvarez via TKO (Punches) R2 1:57
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win inside the distance. He notes Alvarez has a massive eight-inch height and 4.5-inch reach advantage, and is dangerous everywhere: striking and submissions. He points out that Tsarukyan's wrestling could play into Alvarez's game, as Alvarez has a 0% takedown defense but is very dangerous off his back with multiple submission wins. Brady was initially surprised that money was coming in on Alvarez but now sees it as justified. He believes Alvarez can finish by knockout or submission.

Alvarez to win inside the distance
"I'll take alvarez to you know whether it's a knockout on the feet sorkin has been knocked out before or whether it is a submission off his back you know maybe he can get a reversal get on top but …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Tsarukyan by decision, citing his superior speed, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Alvarez's submission threats but believes Tsarukyan's head placement and takedown defense will keep him safe. Cody mentions Tsarukyan's camp in Russia as a slight concern but still sees him winning via volume and takedowns.

Tsarukyan by decision
"my pick is saruki and by decision i think he does mind his p's and q's"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He emphasizes Tsarukyan's relentless takedown game and ability to neutralize submissions. Levi notes Alvarez is dangerous with submissions off his back and has knockout power, but believes Tsarukyan will avoid standing and grind out a win. He disagrees with the dog-or-pass label and expects Tsarukyan to cover the spread.

"i think armin is going to come out here smart and rinse and repeat on the takedowns eventually just neutralize the submission attempts and win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The host hesitantly picks Alvarez as an underdog, citing his size, confidence, and finishing streak. He believes Alvarez can keep the fight standing and land big strikes, potentially drawing a desperation takedown from Tsarukyan that could lead to a guillotine. He acknowledges Tsarukyan is a top prospect but thinks the odds are too wide and Alvarez deserves more respect. He predicts a second-round TKO.

"i'm actually going to go out on the limb here and take uh joel alvarez to get the dub in this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul agrees with Tsarukyan by decision, emphasizing his wrestling and striking advantage. He notes Alvarez's improved striking but trusts Tsarukyan's ability to mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Paul suggests waiting for a better price on Tsarukyan as the line may move.

Tsarukyan by decision
"i would go with circuit my decision as well use the wrestling to either put them down when you want or just yeah neutralizing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez to win, calling it a 51-49 lean. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's skills but believes Alvarez's size, reach, and power are decisive factors. He notes that Alvarez is much bigger and may have a weight advantage, and that his immediate damaging shots (elbows, guillotines) give him more paths to victory. The Guru expects Tsarukyan to win by decision if he wins, while Alvarez can finish early by TKO or submission. He also mentions Alvarez's chin held up against Thiago Moises.

first round TKO or guillotine submission; weight advantage; Alvarez by finish
"i'm going to go with joel alvarez here um dangerous with elbows as well when they're covering up against the cage"
TKO (punches) R1 2:09 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 1 22 of 31 70% 27 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Christos Giagos 0 1 of 6 16% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 1 22 of 31 70% 27 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Christos Giagos 0 1 of 6 16% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 22 of 31 70% 21 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 21
Christos Giagos 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 22 of 31 70% 21 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 10 0 of 0 18 of 21
Christos Giagos 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo is very confident in Arman Tsarukyan, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He praises Arman's wrestling, striking, and athleticism, noting he improves between fights. He thinks Christos Giagos is tough but will be outmatched everywhere. He expects a one-sided beating and suggests the under on rounds might be worth a bet for plus money.

Under 2.5 rounds (suggested for plus money)
"armin is obviously the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady is very confident in Arman Tsarukyan, citing his relentless wrestling and high pace. He notes Giagos has poor takedown defense and cardio, and has been finished five times. He predicts Tsarukyan will get a late finish, specifically a third-round submission, as Giagos slows down.

third round submission
"i think saruki and does get a finish here i think is late in the fight after um geos definitely does slow down definitely does gas out and i'll take armas rookie to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Cody is very confident in Tsarukyan, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and experience against tough competition. He believes Giagos' only path is wrestling, but Tsarukyan is a superior wrestler and will not be taken down. Cody predicts a late finish as Giagos gasses.

Tsarukyan inside distance +150, Tsarukyan round 3 TKO
"i got saruki and then i got a feeling that this thing ends up being in sarukian later finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win. He says Giagos might make it competitive for five minutes before gassing, then Tsarukyan will take over with takedowns. He questions whether -800 is worth it for a decision win but is sure Tsarukyan wins. He mentions Tsarukyan's only scored over 100 fantasy points once (against Matt Frevola) but sees potential for a breakthrough.

"give me armand surukian not sure if it's a finisher or a decision but i am sure about him winning this fight so give me arm and surrounding for the dub"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Preet is very confident Tsarukyan will win and finish Giagos. He notes Tsarukyan's striking is improving and he owns Giagos everywhere. Giagos has poor cardio and will slow down, allowing Tsarukyan to get his first UFC finish. He likes Tsarukyan inside the distance at +170 and round 2-3 props.

Arman Tsarukyan inside the distance +170, Tsarukyan round 2 +550, Tsarukyan round 3 +975
"I think this is the spot for saurikan to go out there and get his first ever ufc finish so uh sarukin inside the distance again I think it could come submission or ko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Paul picks Tsarukyan as a parlay piece, noting that Giagos has suspect cardio and was outstruck by Sean Soriano before getting a submission. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling and durability will be too much. Paul mentions he has Tsarukyan in a three-leg parlay.

"sarookian's the pick he's a parlay piece"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan by submission in the second round, calling it a mismatch. He highlights Tsarukyan's well-rounded skills, great grappling, and cardio. He notes Giagos is not a prolific finisher and predicts Tsarukyan will easily get takedowns and finish with a rear-naked choke.

submission in round 2
"armand saruki and way more well-rounded"
Matt Frevola - Fight History
LOSS vs Kyle Nelson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Nelson 1 63 of 135 46% 92 of 170 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:11
Matt Frevola 0 43 of 136 31% 60 of 155 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Nelson 1 23 of 55 41% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Matt Frevola 0 15 of 54 27% 19 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:01
2 Kyle Nelson 0 29 of 57 50% 32 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matt Frevola 0 21 of 69 30% 22 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
3 Kyle Nelson 0 11 of 23 47% 30 of 46 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:43
Matt Frevola 0 7 of 13 53% 19 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Nelson 63 of 135 46% 41 of 103 14 of 23 8 of 9 46 of 106 7 of 14 10 of 15
Matt Frevola 43 of 136 31% 23 of 103 10 of 20 10 of 13 39 of 129 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Nelson 23 of 55 41% 17 of 47 4 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 37 1 of 3 10 of 15
Matt Frevola 15 of 54 27% 7 of 37 4 of 10 4 of 7 13 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Kyle Nelson 29 of 57 50% 18 of 39 6 of 12 5 of 6 27 of 51 2 of 6 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 21 of 69 30% 13 of 58 3 of 6 5 of 5 20 of 66 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Kyle Nelson 11 of 23 47% 6 of 17 4 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 18 4 of 5 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 7 of 13 53% 3 of 8 3 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kyle Nelson vs. Matt Frevola
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Frevola (-115); Nelson (+100)

Round 1
To kick off the main card now, two flamethrowing lightweights in desperate need of a win will collide, and referee Dan Miragliotta better don his proverbial hard hat when these two let loose. The finish rates for Nelson (16-6-1, 4-5-1 UFC) and Frevola (11-5-1, 5-5-1 UFC) do not do justice what they have accomplished—and suffered—in the cage. A quick fist bump opens the melee.
Frevola starts things off with a few punches and a leg kick, and the Canadian counters with a right hand over the top. Frevola fires off the same combination, and he stays out of danger from the subsequent right hand aimed at his melon. Frevola swings up a couple head kicks that slide off the guard, and he races in with a looping right hand. Nelson drives him back with a sharp left, and he stabs his foot to Frevola’s torso. When Frevola spins, Nelson sits down on a right hand counter. Both fighters end up slipping on one another and climb back to their feet sheepishly, and it is Frevola who marches down his man and swings two hearty overhand rights. Nelson tanks them well but does not give the American much to think about coming back, allowing Frevola to open up with big, looping strikes. Nelson jabs him back, and slaps “The Steamrolla” in the chin with the ball of his foot.
Frevola advances recklessly, scoring a punch but taking a hard low kick on the way out. Frevola bashes the Canadian in the brainstem with a high kick, and he pump-fakes a knee to hurl a right hand at his man. Nelson sticks his fist out to catch Frevola coming in, so Frevola ducks under, lifts Nelson in the air and slams him down like a sack of potatoes. Nelson hits his knees and looks to stand, so Frevola counters with a guillotine choke setup and a knee to the ribs. Nelson gives his back up, and Frevola takes it and then jumps off so he does not slide off and end up in the wrong spot. Leaning on Nelson, he exudes heavy pressure and knees him in the guts. Nelson spins him around and smacks him with an uppercut, only for Frevola to meet it with a knee. Nelson wings a huge right hand that shakes Frevola up, and this results in a furious brawl where Nelson catches his man a second time and puts him on the canvas. Nelson starts hammering Frevola with his free right hand, and as damage mounts, Miragliotta starts to lean in. The Canadian keeps clubbing Frevola with his same fist again and again, and it appears that Frevola is knocked out and knocked back into consciousness. Miragliotta steps in with seconds to spare, and the fight is over. Until it isn’t. In what may be a worse failure of officiating than the recent Magny-Matthews UFC Perth debacle, somehow the fight is still on, and Frevola gets a minute to recover on his stool. The fight, somehow, continues.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Nelson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Nelson

Round 2
The arena is filled with chants cursing out Miragliotta for stealing a knockout win from their fighter, and Round 2 is upon us. Frevola is still stung from the concussive blows he received at the end of the first round, and Nelson takes advantage of that with crisp combinations and a head kick. Every second Frevola remains in this match that should already be over is one more second that he could steal a win. Frevola gathers his thoughts and replies back from the offense with some body work. Nelson has the upper hand with Frevola still wobbled, and he chases him around the Octagon and connects hard on him. Frevola scampers away, so the Canadian gives chase.
Frevola starts to get his bearings more as time progresses, with Nelson’s power appearing to fade a bit, and Frevola does work to the midsection. Nelson chews up the front leg with his kicks, and he stings Frevola with power punches. Frevola gets more comfortable and launches high-amplitude attacks at his adversary. Nelson beats Frevola to the punch frequently and repeatedly, popping Frevola with straight punches and distant kicks. Once more, the round ends, even though this fight should already be over given that the replay clearly showed three seconds on the clock at the end of the first round when Miragliotta put hands on the fighters to separate them. According to the referee, he heard the horn, but it never blew. It does this time.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nelson

Round 3
Nelson, with a full head of steam, wants to punish his opponent for still being in this match all this time. Brutalizing the body like a side of beef, Nelson kicks him again and again as Frevola doubles over. Nelson’s kicks open up one to the head, and he rocks Frevola badly. Frevola stumbles around, and Nelson pops him in the chops with a front kick and several power punches. The New Yorker is tough as nails but has been knocked out at least once tonight and has likely received a great deal of brain damage from this mess of a fight. Frevola steels himself, takes everything Nelson throws at him and tries to swing back valiantly. Frevola’s swings have a lot less mustard on them, but he breaks things up by shooting in for a takedown and putting the Canadian on his back.
Nelson has a lot more energy than his adversary, allowing him to scramble out of the bad position and work to his feet. Nelson batters Frevola to the wire, and he uses his momentum to drag Frevola to the floor. Nelson sits up on top in a high mount position, smacking Frevola around any time he can find an opening, and as he does, Frevola miraculously manages to sneak out the back door. The two are slippery and fatigued, to say the least, but they still throw punches and elbows at one another. Nelson manages to turn his man over, and when Frevola is about to get up, Nelson mat returns him. Nelson laces his foe’s legs beneath his own, and Frevola scrambles with every bit of energy he last left. Standing up at the 10-second clapper, Frevola spins with an elbow to ding Nelson. Nelson retreats, and the fight finally ends for real this time. It might be time to have a serious conversation about the state of officiating in our sport, as fighters are being robbed of their livelihoods in new, frustrating ways that seemed not to happen until recently.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (30-26 Nelson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (30-27 Nelson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (30-26 Nelson)

The Official Result
Kyle Nelson def. Matt Frevola via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Matt Frevola

Angelo leans Matt Frevola as the better fighter with good wrestling and power, but acknowledges Kyle Nelson's durability and power. He expects a finish either way and calls it a 50/50 fight. He picks Frevola but with low confidence.

Fight likely ends inside distance
"I pick Matt Frevola just because he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Big Brady doubts Frevola will wrestle and expects a stand-up brawl. He questions both fighters' chins but thinks Nelson has the better chin and power. He predicts Nelson lands a big shot in the first round, picking a first-round KO.

Nelson by KO in round 1
"I'm going to take Kyle Nelson for the slight upset to land that big shot. I just don't trust the chin of Matt Fvolola. I think it's going to be a Kyle Nelson KO1."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Cody picks Frevola, citing his wrestling advantage and power. He notes Nelson is moving up from 145 and has struggled against wrestlers. Frevola can take Nelson down and ground-and-pound. Cody believes Frevola's size and grappling will be decisive, but admits low conviction.

"I'm going to go with Matt Fravola. Uh yeah, I'm not an under one and a half kind of guy. This looks like an under one and a half kind of fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Connor picks Nelson, agreeing that Frevola has shown bad signs recently. He notes that Frevola has not looked like he wants to fight in his last few outings. Connor believes Nelson's composure and range fighting will be effective, but acknowledges that Nelson has a history of melting down. He thinks Nelson should be a slight favorite.

Odds: Nelson opened at -170, currently -105; Frevola opened at +145, currently -115.
"I think Nelson should be a little bit more of a favorite, frankly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

James favors Frevola due to his wrestling, cardio, and natural lightweight frame, while Nelson is moving up from featherweight. He acknowledges Frevola's chin issues but believes his wrestling and pace will overwhelm Nelson. James predicts a decision win for Frevola.

"I'm going to take Matt Fravola in this fight. My prediction is going to be a decision win. You know, because Kyle Nelson is a tough guy and I feel like Matt Fravola to win, he's probably going to need …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Matt Frevola

The host thinks this fight could be a car crash, but if Frevola plays it safely and avoids Nelson's power, he can easily take the fight to the ground and rinse and repeat that style. He expects Frevola to win by submission or on the scorecards.

win by submission or decision
"If Fvola plays it safely and avoids the big power of Nelson, I think we can see Fvola easily take this fight to the ground."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Paul picks Nelson, but with zero conviction. He notes both fighters love to brawl and have power. Paul thinks it's a pick'em and expects a finish. He leans Nelson but says it's a coin flip.

"gun to my head, I'll I'll say Kyle Nelson, but like zero conviction here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola over Kyle Nelson. He acknowledges both are coming off losses but believes Frevola's competition has been tougher and his good moments are better. He thinks Frevola can mix in grappling and takedowns, and that Nelson is too rigid and simple. He predicts a decision win, 30-27.

decision win 30-27
"I'm going to go with Matt Frevola getting this one done. By decision, 30-27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Zane picks Nelson, citing his improved composure and range fighting. He notes that Nelson has become a cautious, consistent range fighter with good defense. Zane points out that Frevola has looked gun-shy and lacks a fight outside the pocket. He believes Nelson can win by using his jab and staying at range.

Odds: Nelson opened at -170, currently -105; Frevola opened at +145, currently -115.
"So yeah, I'm taking Nelson as well, but it's an interesting fight."
LOSS vs Farès Ziam
KO (knee) R3 2:59 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Farès Ziam 1 58 of 94 61% 69 of 107 4 of 4 100% 1 1 4:43
Matt Frevola 0 16 of 59 27% 25 of 72 1 of 3 33% 1 1 2:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Farès Ziam 0 18 of 29 62% 24 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:20
Matt Frevola 0 9 of 22 40% 12 of 27 1 of 3 33% 1 1 1:49
2 Farès Ziam 0 34 of 55 61% 37 of 60 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:10
Matt Frevola 0 7 of 32 21% 12 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
3 Farès Ziam 1 6 of 10 60% 8 of 12 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:13
Matt Frevola 0 0 of 5 0% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Farès Ziam 58 of 94 61% 44 of 77 11 of 14 3 of 3 45 of 75 7 of 9 6 of 10
Matt Frevola 16 of 59 27% 7 of 44 7 of 12 2 of 3 9 of 49 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Farès Ziam 18 of 29 62% 12 of 22 5 of 6 1 of 1 13 of 21 4 of 4 1 of 4
Matt Frevola 9 of 22 40% 2 of 14 6 of 7 1 of 1 6 of 17 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Farès Ziam 34 of 55 61% 28 of 47 4 of 6 2 of 2 30 of 48 1 of 3 3 of 4
Matt Frevola 7 of 32 21% 5 of 25 1 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Farès Ziam 6 of 10 60% 4 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 2 of 2 2 of 2
Matt Frevola 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Matt Frevola vs. Fares Ziam

Round 1
The UFC chose violence in practically every one of these main card tilts, and the carnage starts in the lightweight division. While he has earned all five of his UFC wins at the hands of the judges, Ziam (15-4, 5-2 UFC) is no stranger to the “just scrap” mentality. Frevola (11-4-1, 5-4-1 UFC) would love nothing more than for the two to go buckwild, attacking with everything they have to let the chips fall where they may. Referee Loic Pora steels himself for just such an encounter, as “The Steamrolla” has not left the first round in his last five trips to the Octagon. There is a speedy glove touch before fists fly. Frevola takes the center of the cage, bobbing to the side to let a front kick fly past him. Frevola swings his way into a takedown setup, and this results in a clinch with a number of knees traded on both sides. The Frenchman bails on the tie-up, avoiding two looping hooks to pay Frevola back with a hard overhand right. Frevola digs deep and shoots for a double, switching to a single and putting “Smile Killer” to his seat. Ziam stays defensive with his guard, not letting Frevola get off any offense, until he sits up. Frevola jumps into a guillotine choke, and he rolls to full mount as Ziam is briefly concerned about the submission and thinks about tapping. Instead, Ziam rides it out, and Frevola rides heavily on top while looking for offense. Ziam turns to his side, and Frevola snatches up an armbar. Ziam shifts through it, and Frevola responds with a triangle choke. Ziam lets him have it with three thunderous right hands, forcing Frevola to spin to his side and try to stand back up. Frevola gets his back to the cage, and he locks his hands around the waist to hurl Ziam to the floor. Ziam lands on his knees, stands up and tags Frevola with a right hand. A second power right hand from Ziam stings the New Yorker, and Frevola smiles and tries to go out guns blazing. “The Steamrolla” misses with a huge right hook, and he kicks his way off the fence to launch a Superman punch. Ziam dodges and counters with a right hand, and he scoops an uppercut to the body before hooking up the clinch and kneeing Frevola in the belly. Frevola gives him a pair of knees back to think about, and a third forces a break. Ziam pounds Frevola in the face with a left hand, and he digs hard to the body before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 2
Frevola comes out of his corner loaded for bear, and he lobs two right hands at the Frenchman to reintroduce himself. Ziam jumps back at him with a knee, and Frevola grins and waves his arms in the air. Ziam pins a one-two on the chin, and he doubles up on a jab and goes over the top with a right. Two punches from Ziam lead to a low kick, and he intercepts an advancing Frevola with a left hand. Frevola overswings with bombs, and Ziam is composed and light on his feet to dodge a spinning wheel kick. Frevola just misses with a right hand from his knees, and Ziam is there to jab him up and move well enough to not get tagged with anything of merit. Frevola slings his way into the clinch, and he drops down for a double. Ziam defends it and hacks Frevola in the face with an elbow to force a break, only for Frevola to belt him with an overhand right. Frevola backs Ziam against the wall and unloads with a few punches, and Ziam is unafraid to engage in response. Ziam hammers his man with an elbow, and he uses another to get in close and tie “The Steamrolla” up. Getting turned to the wall, Ziam stays busy with knees until he spins out and elbows Frevola. Frevola comes out swinging, but Ziam sees the strikes coming, dips and pops Frevola in the temple with a left hand. Frevola circles into a head kick and walks into a jab, and he eats three punches while missing with his own. Ziam splits the guard with a jab, and a one-two keeps Frevola guessing as Ziam closes in on him. Ziam tosses Frevola to the floor, where he gets hold of his back and fishes for a rear-naked choke with only one hook in. Frevola guts it out, fights off a subsequent neck crank and whips an elbow from behind his back. The round ends with Ziam landing shots to the side of Frevola’s dome.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam

Round 3
Frevola assumes the center of the cage in the final round, likely down on the scorecards with plenty of damage on his face. He leads off with an overhand right, and when Ziam avoids it, he goes for another. Ziam sticks him with a jab, charges at him and hits him with a jump knee. Ziam rushes forward and sweeps the New Yorker off his feet, and he pushes Frevola against the wall when Frevola stands. Ziam succeeds in hitting a mat return, dragging “The Steamrolla” away from the fencing. Frevola scrambles, and Ziam follows him and keeps him stuck on his knees. Frevola bursts back to his feet, and Ziam pulls him down to the floor and briefly takes his back. Frevola spins around and works back to his feet, but Ziam lifts him in the air with a single and puts him down like a little brother. Ziam’s hands are clasped around the waist, with Frevola trying to fight the grip but getting tossed around. Frevola spins around, desperate to get out of this bad spot and gain some space.
Ziam holds on with his right hand, pulling Frevola’s head down into the meanest knee one could ever see. His mouthpiece sent flying, Frevola collapses lifelessly to the mat, out well before his head clatters off the mat. Ziam does not need to do this, but before Pora can pull him off, he hammers Frevola with a few standing-to-ground punches to further seal the deal.
The French faithful erupt in favor of their victorious fighter, who has just authored one of the most brutal knockouts of the year. It takes some time, but Frevola manages to come to, getting to his stool and eventually back to his feet, as many witnessing it breathing a sigh of relief. Ziam has the crowd in the palm of his hands, and he calmly thanks his friends and family as he drinks in what will almost certainly be a $50,000-winning performance.

The Official Result
Fares Ziam def. Matt Frevola R3 2:59 via KO (Knee)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Farès Ziam

Angelo picks Farès Ziam as an underdog, surprised he is not the favorite. He believes Ziam's ability to avoid danger and fight a slow, technical fight will frustrate Frevola, who has cardio issues and is not technical enough to win a slow fight. He expects a boring fight where Ziam points his way to victory.

"I'm surprised that Farès is not the favorite... Farès Ziam wins this fight... it's going to be boring, that's how he's going to win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Matt Frevola

Big Brady picks Matt Frevola by decision, expecting him to use wrestling after seeing Ziam get taken down seven times by Claudio Puelles. He notes Frevola has better striking than Puelles and can mix in takedowns. He is concerned about Frevola's chin but thinks he can win a decision if he wrestles.

Frevola by decision
"give me fola fola by decision I don't think it's going to be like some of his la la like his last five fights have all finished in the first round I think he might go back to uh some …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Cody picks Frevola as an underdog, citing Ziam's poor takedown defense (67%) and Frevola's strong wrestling from a high-level camp. He notes that Ziam has been taken down repeatedly by grapplers, and Frevola's path to victory is to take him down and control him. Frevola's durability is a concern, but Ziam lacks one-punch power.

"I'll take fola because he's the underdog"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Connor picks Frevola because he believes Frevola's pressure, scrambling, and power will overwhelm Ziam, who is a cautious range striker with poor wrestling. He notes that Frevola is dangerous in the pocket and can take down opponents, while Ziam tends to struggle when crowded. Connor also points out that Ziam lacks knockout power at this level and has been submitted by grapplers. He sees Frevola winning by decision or late finish.

Odds: Frevola +112, Ziam -124. Connor expresses surprise that Frevola is an underdog, suggesting he should be a decided favorite.
"It's the right fight to bounce back for Fervola."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Daniel Vreeland picks Matt Frevola to win, believing the line should be flipped. He thinks Frevola hits harder, has better wrestling, and can finish Ziam by KO or submission. He notes Ziam's takedown defense issues and that Frevola has fought taller opponents before. He sees value in Frevola at plus odds.

"I think F win this fight I think the line should be flipped"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

JP picks Matt Frevola because he thinks Farès Ziam is 'cheeks' and doesn't use his reach advantage well. He notes Frevola is a dog who comes forward and throws bombs. He also mentions Frevola is 34 but still has enough left. He thinks Frevola can get inside and land big shots.

"I'm picking fola Steamroller I'm picking the steamroller I can't pick the other guy I think the other guy's cheeks"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Paul agrees, emphasizing that Frevola needs to use his wrestling to win, not chase bonuses. He notes that Ziam's takedown defense is a major red flag, and Frevola's camp (Serra-Longo) has a winning blueprint. Paul predicts Frevola by decision.

"fora for vola by decision is where I'm at on this as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola over Farès Ziam, citing Frevola's takedown entries and training partners. He criticizes Ziam's losses to Terrence McKinney and lack of finishes. He predicts Frevola will set up takedowns and then catch Ziam for a late first or early second-round KO.

late first round or early second round KO
"I'm going to go Rola get this one done I'm actually going to say he puts the thought of the takedown in zam's mind a little bit by getting a few of them that Zam might get up from and …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Zane picks Frevola because he believes Frevola's pressure and grappling will be too much for Ziam, who is a cautious striker with poor wrestling defense. He notes that Frevola can start slow and warm up, then take over with his pace and power. Zane also points out that Ziam has been submitted by grapplers and lacks the power to keep Frevola off him. He sees Frevola winning a decision or possibly finishing Ziam late.

Odds: Frevola +112, Ziam -124. Zane agrees Frevola should be a favorite.
"Feels like a fight where Fervola can start slow and be cautious and warm up and then start making Zhiyam scramble..."
KO (head kick) R1 1:31 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Benoît Saint Denis 0 5 of 9 55% 7 of 12 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:25
Matt Frevola 1 6 of 11 54% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Benoît Saint Denis 0 5 of 9 55% 7 of 12 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:25
Matt Frevola 1 6 of 11 54% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Benoît Saint Denis 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 6 of 11 54% 3 of 7 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Benoît Saint Denis 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 6 of 11 54% 3 of 7 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Angelo picks Frevola, citing his confidence, win streak, and fighting in New York. He acknowledges Saint Denis is tough but thinks Frevola can sneak out a win. He is watching the line movement and may bet if Frevola becomes a bigger dog.

watching line movement for potential bet on Frevola moneyline
"Matt faola is going to be the pick and I'm keeping an eye on the line movement tracker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by first-round knockout. He thinks Saint Denis has more avenues to win, including dangerous grappling and power. He worries about Frevola's durability, noting he has been knocked out quickly before. Brady expects a war where Saint Denis lands something big and finishes Frevola.

Saint Denis by first-round knockout
"I got to pick Benoît Saint Denis here, I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Cody picks Saint Denis but is hesitant, acknowledging Frevola's skills and the value at +185. He worries about Frevola's chin, noting he's been knocked out by lesser punchers. He thinks Saint Denis has better durability and will win a brawl, but feels like a 'coward' for not taking the dog.

"I think I'm going to go with benan stt but I feel like a [ __ ] feel like a cow a little bit"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

James picks Benoît Saint Denis but is hesitant, noting the line is too wide at -230. He thinks it should be around -140. He believes BSD has more tools on the feet, including body kicks, and has cardio and knockout upside. However, he acknowledges Frevola is live as an underdog, having won three swinging contests in a row, and BSD is hittable and was knocked out by Zaleski. He expects a swinging match and considers the under 1.5 rounds but is not enticed at -150.

Under 1.5 rounds at -150 considered but not bet; thinks line should be -140.
"I'm gonna pick Benoît Saint Denis to get a first round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Saint Denis will wear on Frevola with his aggressive wrestling and grappling. He will exchange in the pocket to open up takedowns, then take Frevola to the mat and smash him from top position. Expects a finish by TKO or submission in the second or third round. Frevola's durability is a question mark.

finish by TKO or submission in round 2 or 3
"I'm expecting him to do the same thing here against fola as he wears on him and then eventually takes him to the mat and smashes him from that top position getting a finish by TKO or submission in the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Paul picks Saint Denis, citing his durability and toughness from his military background. He thinks Saint Denis can take damage and make the fight ugly, while Frevola has questionable durability. He notes Saint Denis's grappling and strength at 155 will be key.

"I don't know if Ben W St Denise getting knocked out by anybody outside of the top five"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola as his underdog of the card. He thinks Frevola has nasty power and good wrestling, and that Saint Denis leaves his chin open when swinging against the cage. He predicts Frevola will catch Saint Denis with a left hook, similar to his finishes of Dober and Aitar, and win by KO at the end of round one.

underdog pick, KO in round 1
"I'm taking him as an underdog my Underdog of the card is Matt fola... I think Matt fola is going to catch benoir St Denise trying to swing on him against the cage"
WIN vs Drew Dober
TKO (punches) R1 4:08 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Frevola 0 20 of 59 33% 20 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 1 35 of 75 46% 39 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Frevola 0 20 of 59 33% 20 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Drew Dober 1 35 of 75 46% 39 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Frevola 20 of 59 33% 12 of 50 8 of 9 0 of 0 19 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Drew Dober 35 of 75 46% 26 of 61 6 of 11 3 of 3 22 of 58 1 of 2 12 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Frevola 20 of 59 33% 12 of 50 8 of 9 0 of 0 19 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Drew Dober 35 of 75 46% 26 of 61 6 of 11 3 of 3 22 of 58 1 of 2 12 of 15
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Drew Dober vs. Matt Frevola
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dober (-205), Frevola (+175)

Round 1
What many are coining the must-watch battle of the evening takes place in the ESPN prelim headliner, when hard-chinned brawler Dober (26-11, 1 NC; 12-7, 1 NC UFC) throws down with aggressive action fighter Frevola (10-3-1, 4-3-1 UFC). Ahead of what hopes to be a lightweight thriller, the two men bump fists. Referee Herb Dean stands at the ready. Frevola engages with a jab and a body kick, and the latter lands flush. Dober counters with a left hand, and he gets tagged with a right hand over the top. Frevola comes at his foe with a superman punch and a head kick, and he scores a right hand that gives Dober pause. They crash together and bump heads together, and Dober gets a left hand to find the chin. Frevola flails back with powerful punches, and he changes levels and bails on it to knee the body. Dober swats away a kick to his ribs, and he gives Frevola a shove. Frevola slides a punch but cannot dodge the subsequent body shot. A few punches from Frevola bust open Dober’s nose, and he fights his way of the fence. Dober keeps walking him down, slipping a pair of hooks and walking him down. Dober thumps a left to the body, and Frevola loads up with everything he has to fire back. Dober sticks a straight right down the pipe that reddens Frevola’s nose, and he is backing Frevola off but not slowing his offense. Frevola sings a few right hands, and they crash together swinging fists. Both split apart, no worse for wear, and Frevola boots him upside the head with his shin. Dober practically ignores it to retaliate with a one-two, and a left to the body. Frevola connects with another Superman punch, and Dober wobbles but continues marching forward. Dober looses head kicks, and one slides under the arm to the upper ribs.
Frevola sits down on a right hand that pounds square into Dober's perfect jawline, and Dober collapses to his seat. Sensing he might be able to pull off the finish and upset, Frevola leaps on top and hammers Dober with a lengthy barrage of unanswered blows. Frevola beats down on Dober with a long stream of punches, and Dober’s eyes roll back briefly before he gets knocked back into his senses.
As Frevola keeps swinging to finish the job, Dean steps in to wave the fight off, and Dober immediately protests. Dober tries to get back to his feet to show he can still fight and that Dean made a mistake, but he is wobbling on his feet and barely upright. Blood streams from Dober’s face, and the fight is officially over. Frevola goes over to make sure there is no bad blood, and tensions cool down.

The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Drew Dober R1 4:08 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Angelo picks Matt Frevola, citing his recent knockout power and wrestling ability. He thinks Drew Dober's chin may finally be wearing out from accumulated damage, and that Frevola is smart enough to mix in takedowns rather than brawl. Angelo notes Frevola's confidence from back-to-back KO wins and believes he can land, shoot, and grind to victory. He has a quarter unit on Frevola at +185, calling it great odds for a guy with power and wrestling.

quarter unit at +185
"I have a quarter of a unit on Matt frivola at plus 185"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Big Brady picks Dober, expecting a stand-up war. He notes Frevola has power but tends to brawl, and Dober has one of the best chins in the UFC. He believes if Frevola stands and trades, Dober will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola has been knocked out before and Dober's durability is elite.

First round knockout prediction
"I'm going with Drew Dober here I'm going with Drew Dober by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Cody emphasizes Dober's incredible chin and power, noting that Frevola has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He points out that Dober survived a knockdown from Terence McKinney and came back to win, while McKinney knocked out Frevola in 7 seconds. He expects Dober to land big shots and knock Frevola out, possibly under 1.5 rounds.

Under 1.5 rounds; Dober by KO
"I would say over by knockout I'm feeling the under one and a half"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dober's pressure and ability to come back from being hurt make him the pick. He notes Frevola has been knocked out too many times and that Dober's losses come only to elite wrestlers. Connor sees Frevola's path as unlikely.

Dober opened at -210, Frevola at +175; odds reflect Dober as favorite.
"Yeah, I gotta take Drew Dober here. He's been knocked out too many times for me to just be like, yeah, this is a bonafide strategy."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The host picks Drew Dober, believing his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land cleanly on Matt Frevola. He notes Dober's defensive grappling should nullify Frevola's takedowns. He expects a knockout and recommends the fight doesn't go to decision as the best bet.

Fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm gonna go the Drew Dober side but my favorite spot in this fight will end up being the fight doesn't go to decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Paul agrees, calling Dober's chin one of the best in the game. He notes Frevola's path is to grapple early, but at range Dober has a clear advantage. He predicts Dober knocks him out, as Frevola has struggled against power punchers.

"I think Drew Dober knocks him out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Drew Dober

The Guru picks Dober, calling Frevola a scrappier, worse version of Dober. He notes Dober's chin and ability to survive storms, while Frevola has been finished by lesser fighters. He expects a stand-up fight with Dober finishing Frevola in the first round via being more technical and tough in the pocket.

first round finish
"I'm going with Drew Dober over Matt frivola ... I think Trudeau is going to finish him on the feet at some point in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Drew Dober

Zane picks Drew Dober because Dober is more reliable in a brawl, with excellent pocket composure and body work. He notes Frevola may have a wrestling out but is likely to get drawn into a war. Dober's defensive wrestling is solid but not ironclad, but Frevola's tendency to brawl and get knocked out makes Dober the clear pick.

Dober opened at -210, Frevola at +175; odds suggest Dober is a solid favorite in a wild fight.
"So you have to pick Drew. He's going to get a Drew Dober fight and he's just more reliable in that kind of matchup."
KO (punch) R1 2:30 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Frevola 1 11 of 27 40% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ottman Azaitar 0 10 of 22 45% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Frevola 1 11 of 27 40% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ottman Azaitar 0 10 of 22 45% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Frevola 11 of 27 40% 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 1 7 of 22 2 of 3 2 of 2
Ottman Azaitar 10 of 22 45% 6 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Frevola 11 of 27 40% 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 1 7 of 22 2 of 3 2 of 2
Ottman Azaitar 10 of 22 45% 6 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ottman Azaitar vs. Matt Frevola
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Azaitar (-115), Frevola (-105)

Round 1
Azaitar returns to active competition for the first time since September 2020, and he looks to extended his UFC winning streak to three after back-to-back first-round finishes. Frevola, a New York native and Dana White’s Contender Series alum, is coming off a first-round TKO triumph himself. Dan Miragliotta will get his first reffing assignment of the night for this lightweight affair. Frevola comes out with big movements, missing a high kick and a spinning kick. Azaitar circles on the outside and lands a jab. Frevola answers with a body kick. Frevola moves in and lands a one-two. Azaitar backs his foe up with a front kick. A right from Azaitar backs up Frevola. He follows that with a nice front kick down the middle. A counter right lands for Frevola in an exchange, but Azaitar makes Frevola stubmle with a short left hook. Frevola snaps his foe’s head back with a jab. Azaitar looks to go on the attack as he backs Frevola into the fence with a punching combination.
That proves to be a costly decision, as Frevola lands two short rights in close quarters before putting out Azaitar’s lights with a clean left hook.
Frevola lands a couple standing-to-ground punches before Miragliotta dives in to save an unconscious Azaitar.

The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Ottman Azaitar via KO (Punch) R1 2:30
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Angelo notes that Azaitar is a powerful striker who thrives in chaos, while Frevola is a tough wrestler who charges forward. He is concerned about Azaitar's two-year layoff but assumes he is prepared. He picks Azaitar and plans to bet on Azaitar inside the distance if the odds are favorable, because he believes if Azaitar wins it will be by stoppage, while Frevola's path is a decision.

Azaitar inside the distance (decision no action) if odds are -300 or better on BetOnline
"I'm gonna have to pick ottman zeitar here I'm gonna probably wait to play some bets"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar to win by first-round knockout. He believes Frevola will choose to stand and bang, which plays into Azaitar's power. He notes Azaitar hits harder than anyone Frevola has faced, and that Frevola has been knocked out before (by Terrence McKinney in 7 seconds) and dropped multiple times. He acknowledges Azaitar's inactivity and takedown defense concerns, but trusts his power. He says if Frevola wrestles he could win, but he doesn't trust him to do so.

Azaitar by KO in round 1
"I'm gonna say he knocks out matravola in the very first round brutal knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Cody picks Azaitar, citing his legitimate power and the fact that Frevola has durability issues, having been knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes and dropped by Lando Vannata. He notes that Azaitar has been on a long layoff but was given a favorable matchup. Cody thinks Azaitar will land a big shot and finish Frevola in the first or second round.

"I think ottman azitar is gonna you know pull the bag on him and knock him out sometime in the first or second round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Connor picks Azaitar, noting that Frevola has been knocked out early by powerful punchers like Polo Reyes and Terrence McKinney. He points out that Azaitar is an accurate and aggressive finisher who comes out of the gate on point. Connor acknowledges that if the fight goes past the first round, Frevola's versatility gives him an edge, but he trusts Azaitar's early power.

"I'll pick a, a Zaytar to remain on the UFC roster and try to smuggle more drugs into foreign countries."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Daniel Levi picks Ottman Azaitar, believing he will knock out Frevola early. He notes that Frevola has a suspect chin and has been dropped in multiple fights, while Azaitar has knockout power. However, he warns that if Azaitar doesn't finish early, Frevola's pace and heart could take over in later rounds. Levi sees this as a pick'em and is leaning toward Azaitar's finishing ability.

"I think ottman gets him out of there earlier and gets him out of there early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

The host expects violence and an early finish, likely by Azaitar via KO in round 1. He notes Azaitar's 12 finishes in 13 wins and Frevola's fragility. However, he also sees a path for Frevola via submission if he survives the early onslaught. The best bet is the under 2.5 rounds to cover both scenarios. Official prediction is Azaitar by KO round 1.

under 2.5 rounds (-170)
"official prediction will be a zaitar via Finnish uh round one KO but under two and a half is what I'm going to be looking at in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Paul is torn but leans towards Azaitar getting the finish, though he is more drawn to the under 1.5 rounds prop. He notes that Azaitar hits very hard and Frevola has been knocked out before, but he is unsure about Azaitar's grappling if taken down. Paul thinks the fight will end early, likely by Azaitar KO, but he prefers the under prop.

Under 1.5 rounds at plus money
"I'm more drawn towards the under one and a half rounds... I'll side with you with uh zatar getting the Finish but I'm more drawn towards the under here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

The MMA Guru picks Ottman Azaitar, surprised he is an underdog. He notes Frevola's vulnerability in the pocket and Azaitar's power, predicting a KO in the second round. He acknowledges Azaitar's long layoff and past grappling issues but believes Frevola isn't explosive enough to exploit them.

KO in the second round
"I definitely have to go with ottoman as Iota here how can you make this guy an underdog"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ottman Azaitar

Zane picks Azaitar, comparing him to Abdul Razak Alhassan in terms of early explosiveness and accuracy. He notes that Frevola has been slept by similar fighters and that Azaitar's left hook is a real threat. Zane also mentions that Frevola's durability is questionable, and Azaitar follows up on damage well.

"I think I'll side with you. Yeah. He's going to go out there and nail for Vola with a left hook as quickly as he can."
WIN vs Genaro Valdez
KO/TKO R1 3:15 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
KO (punches) R1 0:07 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Frevola 1 4 of 5 80% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Frevola 1 4 of 5 80% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Matt Frevola vs. Terrance McKinney

Round 1
At lightweight, Frevola (8-2-1, 2-2-1 UFC) will welcome short-notice newcomer and a man with an interesting backstory of “T.Wrecks” McKinney (10-3, 0-0 UFC) to the Octagon. McKinney won one week ago inside the LFA cage, and is stepping in for the unexpectedly injured Frank Camacho. Referee Jason Herzog will be on top of what is sure to be a torrid first round at least, but there is a sporting glove touch before the scheduled violence. McKinney strides out of his corner as if he knows something we don’t, and he marches forward with bad intentions.
When they meet in the center of the cage, a jackhammer of a one-two comes from the newcomer, with a right and a left hand that puts Frevola down like a sack of bricks. Frevola may be out, and McKinney dives down to smash him with hammerfists as Herzog cannot intervene fast enough.
Celebrating what should be one of the quickest knockouts in company history is McKinney, who climbs the cage and leaps off. When “T.Wrecks” lands on the ground, he jams his knee and may have blown it out. McKinney falls over in pain, and he manages to get to his feet thanks to his corner, and he hops over to his stool. Tears in his eyes, McKinney soaks in the moment of what is easily the biggest win of his career, although he does mar it with a potential knee injury.

The Official Result
Terrance McKinney def. Matt Frevola R1 0:07 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Big Brady picks Matt Frevola, citing his wrestling advantage and better gas tank. He notes Camacho has been finished 7 times and is on a losing streak, while Frevola is younger and should outwork him. He expects a decision win but acknowledges a finish is possible due to both fighters' durability issues.

Frevola by decision
"i think uh matrivola does win this fight i'm going to say by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Cody picks Frevola, believing his cardio and grappling will overcome McKinney's early explosiveness. He thinks if Frevola survives the first round, he will break McKinney down and possibly finish him. He is also interested in the under on the total rounds, expecting a finish.

under 1.5 rounds (anticipated)
"i'm going to take for vola"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Daniel Levi picks Matt Frevola, citing his experience against tough competition and his heart. He notes that Frevola has fought Jalin Turner and Arman Tsarukyan, and that McKinney's only chance is an early knockout. Levi expects McKinney to gas out if he doesn't finish in the first round, and that Frevola's pace and durability will carry him to victory.

"i'm gonna go with the mattress roller here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Matt Frevola

Frevola has better striking and power, and McKinney is coming off a short-notice fight with weight cuts. Both are aggressive, but Frevola should land the cleaner shots. Expect a first-round knockout, as McKinney has never been to a decision and Frevola is all action. The fight likely ends inside the distance.

Frevola by first-round KO, under 2.5 rounds (-170), under 1.5 rounds (+110)
"I'm going to be going with Matt Frevola I think he ends up getting the first round knockout here... I expect this fight to be fireworks from the beginning."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Paul picks Frevola, noting his durability and cardio. He thinks McKinney is too green and will gas out after the first round. He is eager to bet the under on the total rounds, expecting a finish.

under 1.5 rounds (anticipated)
"i'm picking for vola to win"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

The MMA Guru picks Matt Frevola, citing Frank Camacho's recent decline and inactivity. He believes Frevola is younger, hungrier, and has good grappling and power. He predicts a first-round TKO in a scrappy brawl, with Frevola's youth and chin giving him the edge.

TKO finish in the first round
"i'm gonna have to go with matt fravola i feel like frank camacho is getting to the point in his career where maybe it's time to call it a day"
LOSS vs Arman Tsarukyan
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan 0 50 of 103 48% 103 of 180 10 of 12 83% 0 0 8:24
Matt Frevola 0 16 of 57 28% 51 of 97 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arman Tsarukyan 0 28 of 52 53% 33 of 60 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:17
Matt Frevola 0 12 of 41 29% 24 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Arman Tsarukyan 0 7 of 16 43% 34 of 57 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:36
Matt Frevola 0 1 of 3 33% 20 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arman Tsarukyan 0 15 of 35 42% 36 of 63 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:31
Matt Frevola 0 3 of 13 23% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arman Tsarukyan 50 of 103 48% 32 of 82 12 of 15 6 of 6 39 of 86 5 of 8 6 of 9
Matt Frevola 16 of 57 28% 8 of 46 6 of 9 2 of 2 9 of 48 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arman Tsarukyan 28 of 52 53% 20 of 43 5 of 6 3 of 3 25 of 48 3 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Frevola 12 of 41 29% 5 of 31 5 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 35 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Arman Tsarukyan 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 8
Matt Frevola 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Arman Tsarukyan 15 of 35 42% 8 of 28 4 of 4 3 of 3 13 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1
Matt Frevola 3 of 13 23% 2 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Matt Frevola vs. Arman Tsarukyan (Missed Weight: 157)

Round 1
The key bout atop the ESPN preliminary portion of the event is one thrown together on Friday due to a
failed weight cut
by one previous opponent and by
hijinks almost too preposterous to believe
for the other. After the dust settled, we were left with a 157-pound catchweight affair as Tsarukyan (15-2, 2-1 UFC) now tries to steamroll “The Steamrolla” Frevola (8-1-1, 2-1-1 UFC). Keeping tabs on this hastily made match is referee Lukasz Bosacki, who notices the two touch gloves in appreciation of still being able to compete on the card. Frevola leads off with several kicks, coming with front kicks and body kicks. He misses with a head kick, and Tsarukyan catches a leg kick to take the fight down with ease. Frevola scoots back to the cage, and when he stands up, Tsarukyan hits a hard mat return. Frevola spins about, threatens a choke, and gets dragged back down. Tsarukyan starts punching him in the face with several right hands, and when he tries to keep Frevola grounded, Frevola starts working body shots from his back. Frevola manages to walk up the fence to stand up again, but it does not stay there for long when Tsarukyan tries to toss him down. Both men fall to their knees, and they stand back up. When they start to engage, they clash heads, but neither appear hurt or cut from it. Tsarukyan starts to walk Frevola down, landing punches and ducking out of the way of Frevola’s huge shots. Tsarukyan lands a one-two as Frevola circles around the fence, and Frevola defends by rolling through a dramatic takedown attempt. When Frevola stands up, he comes up short with a big elbow. Tsarukyan lets loose a head kick, but it is not able to score. The American spins for a wheel kick, and Tsarukyan sees it coming and counters with a spinning back kick that puts Frevola on his back for a moment. Frevola leaps back up, and he takes a few heavy punches and cannot counter effectively. Tsarukyan counters Frevola on the way in, but Frevola is loading up with everything he has on his punches as he gets off a glancing blow that makes Tsarukyan take a step back. Both men stand and trade, and Frevola waves Tsarukyan on to start brawling with him. Frevola sits down on a huge right hand, and Tsarukyan is not able to roll with it. Frevola stings him with a big right hand, and he hurts Tsarukyan with it and shoots in on a takedown to wrap up the action-packed round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan

Round 2
Tsarukyan begins the round with a few big shots, and Frevola eats them like small sandwiches and keeps on going. Tsarukyan shoots in low for a takedown, and he hits it all while Frevola smacks him upside the head repeatedly. Frevola springs back up, but he is not upright for more than a second or two before Tsarukyan throws him back down to the ground. This time, Frevola is not in an advantageous position to walk up the fence, allowing Tsarukyan to start landing ground-and-pound while in Frevola’s guard. Tsarukyan stacks up Frevola, when the American flirts with a triangle choke off his back, and he lords over his foe to land some heavy shots. Frevola rolls through when Tsarukyan tries to pound on him, allowing him to walk up the fence only to get dragged back down in a hurry. Frevola can only stay upright for seconds at a time, as Tsarukyan is on him like a cheap suit, smothering Frevola and irritating him with sporadic punches. Frevola pushes off the fence and is on one knee, and when he stands up, Tsarukyan lifts Frevola’s leg in the air. As Frevola swats at his opponent on one leg, the Russian trips his leg out and slams him down. In one of the brief exchanges from the close-range contact, a right hand of Frevola opens up a cut above Tsarukyan’s left eye. Tsarukyan ignores it and keeps Frevola trapped on his back, even attempting a brabo choke for a moment. Tsarukyan bails on it to get off some ground-and-pound, eventually transitioning into an arm-triangle choke. Frevola rolls and bucks out of the choke, but Tsarukyan holds him down and works him over with punches until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan

Round 3
There is a glove touch to begin the last stanza, and Tsarukyan steps in and kicks Frevola in the face. Frevola swings with a big right hand, and Tsarukyan ducks it into an easy takedown. “The Steamrolla” rolls through it to get back to his feet, where Tsarukyan greets him with another foot to the face. Frevola wears it well as he gets jabbed shortly after, and he swings wildly with a right hand that is nowhere near his opponent. Tsarukyan ducks out of the way from a spinning kick, and he dances backward to evade a multiple-rotation spinning kick that follows. Tsarukyan lands a one-two, and keeps Frevola at bay with jabs and more one-two combinations. Frevola tries to counter, and Tsarukyan snatches up his leg and successfully completes a single. From his back, Frevola pursues a guillotine choke, but Tsarukyan ignores it as he works the body with his left hand, all while sliding his head out of danger. Frevola kicks off, lands an upkick to a standing Tsarukyan, and stands up. Tsarukyan catches him in a rolling brabo or anaconda choke, but they move so fast that he cannot lock it up and both get back up. Frevola overcommits to a strike, and Tsarukyan lifts him up and slams him down. Tsarukyan takes his back in an exchange, but Frevola is sneaky and twists his way out. Instead of winding up on top, Tsarukyan similarly scrambles and puts Frevola on his back. Tsarukyan lands this position in side control, before crawling over to north-south before getting side control on the other side. From there, Tsarukyan sits up, lands a few strikes, and locks down three-quarter mount to drop down shots. Frevola sits up, and he surrenders his back for a moment, but Tsarukyan bowls him back over as he lands strikes. Tsarukyan lumps up Frevola with ground strikes right to the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan (30-27 Tsarukyan)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan (30-27 Tsarukyan)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan (30-27 Tsarukyan)

The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Matt Frevola via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan (likely referring to Ottman Azaitar, but the matchup is Tsarukyan vs Frevola; he mentions 'zytar' which is likely a mispronunciation of Tsarukyan). He notes Tsarukyan's power and Frevola's recklessness. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola engages in brawls and has been knocked out before. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's takedown defense is a question mark but believes his power will prevail.

first round knockout
"i'm going to say he knocks out matt for volo i'm going to say round one here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan, calling him a class above Frevola in wrestling, striking, and durability. He notes Tsarukyan's impressive improvements and believes he will win fairly easily. Levi respects Frevola's toughness but sees Tsarukyan as a future top-15 fighter.

"i got armand surukian to defeat matt fravola here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Frevola has good takedown defense and cardio, and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Tsarukyan's takedown efficiency has been poor (18% against Olivier Aubin-Mercier), and Frevola's low stance helps him stuff takedowns. Frevola's striking, especially his rear uppercut, could be a factor. I think Frevola wins by decision, and at plus money he is a steal.

"I'm going with Nasrat Haqparast to win this fight via decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan (misspelled as 'Ottoman Zyatar') to win by first-round TKO. He criticizes Matt Frevola's tendency to stick his chin out and brawl, which led to a KO loss against Marco Polo Reyes. He believes Tsarukyan's hand speed and power will catch Frevola early. He also notes Frevola has taken significant damage in his career, making him more vulnerable.

First-round TKO
"i think ottoman's gonna beat him to the punch with way more speed and then just catch him straight on the chin and put him out cold in the first round"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan (likely referring to Ottman Azaitar, but the matchup is Tsarukyan vs Frevola; he mentions 'zytar' which is likely a mispronunciation of Tsarukyan). He notes Tsarukyan's power and Frevola's recklessness. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Frevola engages in brawls and has been knocked out before. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's takedown defense is a question mark but believes his power will prevail.

first round knockout
"i'm going to say he knocks out matt for volo i'm going to say round one here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan, calling him a class above Frevola in wrestling, striking, and durability. He notes Tsarukyan's impressive improvements and believes he will win fairly easily. Levi respects Frevola's toughness but sees Tsarukyan as a future top-15 fighter.

"i got armand surukian to defeat matt fravola here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Matt Frevola

Frevola has good takedown defense and cardio, and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Tsarukyan's takedown efficiency has been poor (18% against Olivier Aubin-Mercier), and Frevola's low stance helps him stuff takedowns. Frevola's striking, especially his rear uppercut, could be a factor. I think Frevola wins by decision, and at plus money he is a steal.

"I'm going with Nasrat Haqparast to win this fight via decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan (misspelled as 'Ottoman Zyatar') to win by first-round TKO. He criticizes Matt Frevola's tendency to stick his chin out and brawl, which led to a KO loss against Marco Polo Reyes. He believes Tsarukyan's hand speed and power will catch Frevola early. He also notes Frevola has taken significant damage in his career, making him more vulnerable.

First-round TKO
"i think ottoman's gonna beat him to the punch with way more speed and then just catch him straight on the chin and put him out cold in the first round"