Fight card

UFC 320

October 04, 2025 T-Mobile Arena Paradise, Nevada, United States
Fight 1 VS Light Heavyweight Completed
Alex Pereira

Alex Pereira W

13-3
KO R1 1:20

Magomed Ankalaev

Moneyline
DraftKings -180
KO/TKO
BetWay +275
Submission
BetRivers +1200
Decision
BetRivers +170

Alex Pereira

Moneyline
BetWay +210
KO/TKO
FanDuel +320
Submission
BetRivers +6600
Decision
BetRivers +1200
Fighter Stats

Magomed Ankalaev

Age34
Height6' 3"
Reach75.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Alex Pereira

Age38
Height6' 4"
Reach79.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Magomed Ankalaev

3.65SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
2.59SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.79TD Avg
22.0%TD Acc.
87.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Alex Pereira

5.16SLpM
62.0%Str. Acc.
3.5SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.11TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
79.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing the rematch will be similar to the first fight. He argues that Alex Pereira's narrative about trusting his takedown defense and letting his hands go is flawed because Ankalaev almost knocked him out in the first fight. He also notes that defending takedowns is easier when that's all you focus on, and that Ankalaev now knows he can handle Pereira's power. He expects Ankalaev to win more dominantly.

"I'm going to pick Ankolia here. I don't think this fight is any different from the first one. If anything, it will be wider."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady is concerned about Pereira's age (38), potential lack of focus due to newfound wealth and lifestyle, and recent performances. He believes Ankalaev is hungrier and more dedicated. He notes that Ankalaev almost finished Pereira in the second round of their first fight and that Pereira has been hurt multiple times. He predicts Ankalaev wins by third-round knockout.

Magomed Ankalaev by third round knockout.
"I'm actually going to take Ankal alive to win this fight and Ankalive to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Connor picks Ankalaev, agreeing with Zane that Pereira's age and the way Ankalaev pressured him in the first fight are key factors. He emphasizes that Ankalaev's ability to make clutch decisions and prevent big swings, combined with Pereira's declining willingness to take risks, makes Ankalaev the likely winner. Connor also notes that Pereira's back-foot game is not strong enough to counter Ankalaev's pressure.

"Seeing the way that first fight played out, it's kind of hard not to pick uncle live."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

The host expects a more violent and aggressive Pereira, which could work for or against him. He likes the under 3.5 rounds and believes Ankalaev will catch a reckless Pereira and knock him out, replicating the previous fight's success.

under 3.5 rounds, finish
"I really like the under three and a half in this matchup as I think this fight will produce a finish and I ultimately think it's going to be Ankalaev that catches a little bit of a reckless …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing his wrestling, boxing, and mental focus will be key. He notes Pereira's difficulty with southpaws and the likelihood that Ankalaev improves his takedown efficiency. He predicts a finish in the championship rounds.

finish in round 4 or 5
"I'm going to go with Magomed Ankalaev. I'm not going to let what I want cloud my opinion and my judgement."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev because he believes Pereira's age and stylistic progression have made him more cautious and less willing to pull the trigger. He notes that Ankalaev is adept at steering fights and maintaining a narrow lead, and that Pereira struggled to create offense when pressured in their first fight. Zane also mentions that Ankalaev has never been knocked out and has a good chin, though he acknowledges Pereira's power is always a threat.

"I am going to pick him much to the UFC's chagrin. I'm picking uncle."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Merab Dvalishvili

Merab Dvalishvili W

21-5
Decision R5 5:00
Fight 2 VS Bantamweight Completed

Merab Dvalishvili

Moneyline
BetRivers -400
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
BetRivers +900
Decision
FanDuel -170

Cory Sandhagen

Moneyline
Caesars +360
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
BetMGM +2500
Decision
BetRivers +800
Fighter Stats

Merab Dvalishvili

Age35
Height5' 6"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Cory Sandhagen

Age34
Height5' 11"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Merab Dvalishvili

4.42SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
2.8SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
5.97TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Cory Sandhagen

4.86SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.47SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
1.15TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
56.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, acknowledging that Cory Sandhagen is a tough matchup with good skills everywhere. He believes Merab's non-stop chain wrestling and cardio are his biggest weapons, and that Sandhagen is better than Sean O'Malley but still likely to lose. He notes that Sandhagen's cardio slowed against Umar, and that Merab's pressure will be overwhelming.

"Morab's going to be the pick, but I'm not dismissing Cory Sanhagen's ability to make this an ugly fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady thinks the fight will be competitive but clear in favor of Dvalishvili. He notes that Sandhagen has advantages in height, reach, and striking, but Dvalishvili's wrestling and ability to dictate where the fight takes place will be key. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, possibly 49-46 or 48-47. He does not like the line but is not picking against Dvalishvili.

Merab Dvalishvili by decision.
"I like Morav to get it done. I just I just really don't like the line. But give me Rob by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor picks Dvalishvili, agreeing with Zane that Sandhagen's physicality is a major concern. He highlights that Sandhagen's best path is to pressure Merab and keep him on the back foot, but even then, Merab's wrestling and durability make it hard to win a decision. Connor also notes that Sandhagen lacks finishing power at the highest level, making it unlikely he stops Merab.

"Yeah, you really do. So yeah, I'm glad they made this fight. I don't think it'll be boring, but I just do not at my core believe that Corey Sandhagen can go out there and fight a busy …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Merab Dvalishvili

The host expects a classic Dvalishvili performance with takedowns and control time, possibly threatening submissions, but Sandhagen will be too slippery to catch, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.

"I think we'll see a classic Dvalishvili performance here where he will get his takedowns, he'll get his control time... I think Sandhagen will be too slimy to catch in anything of substance and that will lead to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his relentless pace, takedowns, and improving striking. He notes Cory Sandhagen's lack of finishing ability and tendency to leave fights close. He predicts a 49-46 or 48-47 decision.

"I'm going with Merab. Sandhagen's good. I think he'll do better than O'Malley in the rematch. We're looking at a decision here. 48-47, 49-46 Merab."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane picks Dvalishvili because he believes Sandhagen lacks the physicality to consistently win scrambles and wrestling exchanges against Merab. He notes that Sandhagen has struggled against elite wrestlers like Umar Nurmagomedov and that Merab's endless cardio and improved striking make him a nightmare matchup. Zane also points out that even if Sandhagen has a good round or two, he is unlikely to finish Merab and will likely be worn down over five rounds.

"I just cannot fundamentally believe that Corey Sandhagen has the physicality at a very raw base level to tie up with Marabh Dvala Shavili all the time."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Jiří Procházka

Jiří Procházka W

32-6-1
KO R3 3:04
Fight 3 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Jiří Procházka

Moneyline
Caesars -180
KO/TKO
BetRivers +117
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
FanDuel +480

Khalil Rountree Jr.

Moneyline
BetMGM +165
KO/TKO
FanDuel +350
Submission
BetMGM +3500
Decision
BetMGM +550
Fighter Stats

Jiří Procházka

Age33
Height6' 3"
Reach80"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Khalil Rountree Jr.

Age36
Height6' 1"
Reach76.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Jiří Procházka

5.69SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
5.6SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.51TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Khalil Rountree Jr.

3.88SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
4.33SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo picks Jiří Procházka but is not confident, as he thinks the odds are too wide. He believes Procházka's relentless forward pressure and threat of takedowns will be key against Khalil Rountree, who struggles when moving backwards. However, he notes Procházka gets hit a lot and has been knocked out twice recently, while Rountree has power and durability. He calls it a very close fight.

"I'm going to pick Yuri here because I think that relentless crazy person forward pressure is going to be tricky for Khalil who does not fight as well backing up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Big Brady acknowledges Procházka's poor striking defense but believes he is built differently and will break Rountree as the fight goes on. He notes that Procházka often switches to an aggressive style in the second round, as seen in the Rakic fight. He predicts Procházka wins by second-round knockout.

Jiří Procházka by second round knockout.
"I like Yuri Bhashka to win this fight. I think he's going to break Khalil as the fight goes on. I'm going to take Gary Bhashka by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka, emphasizing that Rountree's technical improvements have not overcome his mental fragility. He notes that Procházka's relentless pressure and willingness to exchange will force Rountree into defensive mode, and that Procházka's athleticism and relaxed style give him an edge. Connor also acknowledges the possibility of Rountree landing a knockout or leg kicks, but believes Procházka's overall dynamics favor him.

"I got to just go with Proshaska here in terms of the general overall dynamics."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The host expects a violent matchup, but Rountree's improvements will help him find Procházka's chin and his power will put Procházka away by knockout.

"I believe this will be a very violent matchup, but the improvements in Rountree's game, I think, will help him find the chin of Procházka. And I think Rountree has the type of power to put Procházka away."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka, believing his chaos and durability will overwhelm Khalil Rountree. He notes Rountree's lack of one-punch KO power and tendency to fade under pressure. He predicts a third-round TKO.

third-round TKO
"I'm going to say that Jiri Prochazka gets a third round TKO win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane picks Procházka because he believes Rountree's mentality is his biggest weakness, as seen in the Jamal Hill fight where Rountree fought with fear despite having a technical advantage. Zane argues that Procházka's fearless, chaotic pressure will overwhelm Rountree, who tends to tense up and fight with a panic response. He also notes that Procházka is a better athlete, faster, and more dynamic, and that Rountree's leg kicks could be a threat but are unlikely to stop Procházka's forward pressure.

"I think that's just going to make him terrified of fighting Yuri Prashaska. Just terrified."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 4 VS Featherweight Completed
Youssef Zalal

Youssef Zalal W

18-6-1
Submission R1 1:38

Josh Emmett

Moneyline
FanDuel +360
KO/TKO
BetRivers +750
Submission
FanDuel +3500
Decision
FanDuel +900

Youssef Zalal

Moneyline
BetRivers -435
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1100
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
BetRivers -148
Fighter Stats

Josh Emmett

Age41
Height5' 6"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Youssef Zalal

Age29
Height5' 10"
Reach72.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Josh Emmett

3.67SLpM
35.0%Str. Acc.
4.52SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.07TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
43.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Youssef Zalal

3.03SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
1.78SApM
66.0%Str. Def.
2.17TD Avg
31.0%TD Acc.
59.0%TD Def.
1.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Angelo picks Youssef Zalal, citing his ability to be an outside distance striker or a full-blown grappler. He notes Zalal's high fight IQ and low strikes absorbed per minute. He acknowledges Josh Emmett's power and experience but thinks Zalal's versatility and youth will be key. He is surprised Zalal is almost a 4-to-1 favorite and would set the line at -170.

"I'm going to pick Ysef Zal here. Ysef's ability to be an outside distance striker or a full-blown grappler is going to suit him well here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Big Brady sees this as an easy win for Zalal, who is in his prime at 29, while Emmett is 40 and fighting at featherweight. He believes Zalal can use his speed and footwork to avoid Emmett's power and mix in takedowns. He predicts Zalal by decision.

"Give me Zo use allow by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Connor picks Zalal, agreeing that Zalal's movement and ability to fight at range will give Emmett problems. He notes that Emmett's only major improvement was learning to throw punches at two speeds, but he still lacks dexterity and cage-cutting skills. Connor also mentions that Zalal's performance against Calvin Katter showed he can neutralize opponents, though he cautions that Emmett's power is a constant threat.

"Yeah, I agree. Yeah, I'm picking Zolol as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Youssef Zalal

Zalal's style is expected to be too difficult for Emmett to track. Emmett may land some big shots, but Zalal should flow with them and get off his own offense, winning a boring decision.

"I believe Zalal's style will be a little bit too difficult for Emmett to get a track on him... I think that will lead to Zalal winning a pretty boring decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal, believing his counter-striking and movement will frustrate Josh Emmett. He notes Emmett's predictable overhands and lack of grappling. He predicts a late TKO via knee up the middle.

TKO win
"I'm going to go with Youssef Zalal to get this one done. And I'm going to say late rounds TKO, knee up the middle."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Zane picks Zalal because he believes Zalal can frustrate Emmett with movement and range control, similar to how Laron Murphy and Yair Rodriguez did. He notes that Emmett lacks a range game and struggles when opponents refuse to engage in the pocket. Zane also points out that Zalal is a dangerous striker with good combinations and that Emmett's limited offensive toolkit makes him vulnerable to a neutralizing game plan.

"I just think uses the law can go out there and have that cater fight. And yeah, he might be in more danger than he was against cater in those bad positions, but he might be just as …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 5 VS Middleweight Completed
Joe Pyfer

Joe Pyfer W

16-3
Submission R2 1:46

Abusupiyan Magomedov

Moneyline
BetWay +200
KO/TKO
Unibet +650
Submission
BetMGM +1000
Decision
Unibet +540

Joe Pyfer

Moneyline
FanDuel -205
KO/TKO
BetRivers +150
Submission
FanDuel +800
Decision
FanDuel +410
Fighter Stats

Abusupiyan Magomedov

Age35
Height6' 2"
Reach78"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Joe Pyfer

Age29
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Abusupiyan Magomedov

3.07SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.43SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
2.61TD Avg
59.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Joe Pyfer

3.52SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
3.22SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
1.45TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer despite his negative attitude, believing Pyfer is better than Abusupiyan Magomedov everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes both fighters fade, but Pyfer hits harder and has better skills. He thinks the odds are a discount because of Pyfer's personality, but he is confident in the pick.

"I got to pick him. And I'm like super confident here. I think these odds are a discount because Joe Piper is everything Aboose thinks he is, but a little better."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady is confident in Joe Pyfer, noting his power from the Kelvin Gastelum fight where he dropped Gastelum multiple times. He believes Abusupiyan Magomedov gets hurt easily and has poor cardio. He thinks Pyfer's power will lead to a first-round knockout.

Joe Pyfer by first round KO.
"Give me Joe Pyer. Give me Joe Piper by first round KO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Connor picks Magomedov out of spite for Pyfer, but also because he believes Magomedov is the smarter pick for a decision win. He notes that Magomedov's game is shallow but consistent, and if Pyfer doesn't finish early, Magomedov's ability to frustrate with long-range strikes and takedowns will likely lead to a win. Connor considers it a coin flip but leans toward Magomedov's consistency.

"I just decided I'm going to pick Obus Magomedov out of a rapidly grown supply of spite for Joe Piper."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Magomedov is seen as overlooked and a better all-around fighter on paper. If he survives Pyfer's early power, his striking and grappling should lead to a decision win.

"I believe that Magomedov is being overlooked in this matchup. On paper, I think he's a better all-around fighter... Look for Magomedov to grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer, despite concerns about his calf kick defense. He notes Abus Magomedov's poor cardio and tendency to get sloppy, while Pyfer's conditioning and power should prevail. He predicts a second-round KO.

second-round KO
"I'm going to go with Joe Pyfer to get this one by second round KO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane picks Pyfer but with hesitation, acknowledging that Pyfer's first-round dynamism could lead to a quick finish. However, he notes that if Pyfer doesn't finish early, he tends to run out of ideas and become discouraged, while Magomedov is more consistent and can frustrate him over three rounds. Zane considers it a coin flip but sticks with Pyfer due to his explosive potential.

"I came in ready to pick Piper just for that first round dynamism. So I'm going to stick with it."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Ateba Gautier

Ateba Gautier W

11-1
KO R1 1:41
Fight 6 VS Middleweight Completed

Ateba Gautier

Moneyline
BetWay -1408
KO/TKO
BetRivers -835
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
FanDuel +2000

Treston Vines

Moneyline
FanDuel +980
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1600
Submission
BetMGM +3500
Decision
BetRivers +4500
Fighter Stats

Ateba Gautier

Age24
Height6' 4"
Reach81.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Treston Vines

Age29
Height6' 1"
Reach79"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Ateba Gautier

4.44SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.93SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.49TD Avg
100.0%TD Acc.
92.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Treston Vines

0.0SLpM
0.0%Str. Acc.
3.56SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (3)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ateba Gautier

Angelo is extremely confident in Ateba Gautier, calling him a minus-950 favorite who should knock out Treston Vines. He highlights Gautier's nasty striking, incredible speed, and power, and notes that Vines doesn't use his range well. He expects an early knockout.

"The dude on the left knocks out the dude on the right. There's your breakdown."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ateba Gautier

Big Brady is extremely confident in Ateba Gautier, calling the fight inhumane and suggesting it could result in the first death in UFC history. He believes Gautier will win by first-round knockout and expresses concern for Treston Vines' safety. He even holds a moment of silence for Vines.

Ateba Gautier by first round knockout.
"Godier by first round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Ateba Gautier

Gautier is predicted to win by first-round knockout against Vines, who comes in on short notice for his UFC debut.

round 1 KO
"Gautier round one KO."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Daniel Santos

Daniel Santos W

14-2
KO R2 0:21
Fight 7 VS Catchweight (153 lb) Completed

Daniel Santos

Moneyline
Caesars -130
KO/TKO
Unibet +480
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
FanDuel +200

JooSang Yoo

Moneyline
BetRivers +125
KO/TKO
BetRivers +400
Submission
BetRivers +2000
Decision
BetRivers +310
Fighter Stats

Daniel Santos

Age31
Height5' 7"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

JooSang Yoo

Age32
Height5' 7"
Reach71"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Daniel Santos

4.76SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
5.03SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
3.01TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - JooSang Yoo

6.36SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
4.99SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Santos

Angelo picks Daniel Santos despite the public heavily favoring Yoo Joo-sang (77% on Tapology). He believes Santos has quality wins and has proven himself in the octagon, while Yoo's only notable win is against a weak opponent. He is surprised by the public confidence in Yoo and trusts Santos as the slight favorite.

"I'm going to pick Daniel Santos here. He is the slight favorite, which is why I was surprised to see everybody on the other side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Santos

Big Brady acknowledges that this is the closest line fight on the card and that there is missing information on Yoo Joo-sang. However, he notes that Santos has been mixing in wrestling effectively in his recent fights, completing over 10 takedowns in his last three. He believes Yoo Joo-sang is too hittable and gets taken down too easily. He predicts Santos wins by decision, using his wrestling to dictate the fight.

"I'm going to take Daniel Santos here for the pick. I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Santos

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Santos because he sees Yoo as a raw talent who has not been forced into a brawl and may struggle when Santos puts together multiple attacking ideas. Connor notes that Santos is a dark horse who is more difficult to face than he looks, and he expects Yoo to have initial success but then get caught by Santos's persistent pressure.

Santos opened at -150, currently -141; Yoo opened at +130, currently +121
"I think you gotta go with Santos here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
JooSang Yoo

Santos missed weight and asked for a catchweight, indicating his body wasn't responding. The host believes Yoo Joo-sang can take advantage by counter-striking a reckless Santos or chipping away for a decision win.

"I think you should be able to take advantage of that either by counter striking Santos, who will likely come out with a reckless approach, or chipping away at him and winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
JooSang Yoo

The MMA Guru picks Yoo Joo-sang, believing his counter-striking and power will be too much for Daniel Santos. He notes Santos's tendency to get hit while closing distance and his inactivity. He predicts a first-round KO.

first-round KO
"I'm going to go with Juesung Yu getting this one done. I reckon he chins Daniel Santos in round one."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Santos

Zane picks Daniel Santos because he believes Santos is a volume brawler who mixes in takedowns and holds his ground in the pocket, while JooSang Yoo, despite his raw talent and speed, has not faced real resistance and tends to drop his hands and lean back out of the pocket, leaving him vulnerable to Santos's combinations. Zane notes that Santos has never been KO'd and is durable, and he expects Santos to catch Yoo off guard with sustained offense.

Santos opened at -150, currently -141; Yoo opened at +130, currently +121
"I think you gotta go with Santos here."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 8 VS Bantamweight Completed
Jakub Wiklacz

Jakub Wiklacz W

18-3-2
Decision R3 5:00

Patchy Mix

Moneyline
BetWay -333
KO/TKO
FanDuel +850
Submission
BetWay +175
Decision
FanDuel +175

Jakub Wiklacz

Moneyline
Caesars +290
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2200
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
FanDuel +450
Fighter Stats

Patchy Mix

Age32
Height5' 11"
Reach70"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Jakub Wiklacz

Age29
Height5' 10"
Reach72"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Patchy Mix

5.3SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
7.3SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
2.5TD Avg
62.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jakub Wiklacz

3.4SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
3.87SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
41.0%TD Def.
2.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Angelo is disappointed in Patchy Mix's UFC debut but acknowledges his pre-UFC grappling skills. He thinks Patchy is the better grappler in a grappler vs grappler matchup, and has higher level experience. However, he is not willing to bet on him at nearly 3-to-1 odds due to the terrible performance. He picks Patchy but says picks and bets are not the same.

Not touching this money.
"Patchy is a great grappler. He'll be fighting somebody who's also looking to grapple. So, for that reason, I got to pitch pick Patchy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Big Brady sees this as a good buy-low spot on Patchy Mix after his disappointing UFC debut. He believes Mix is a much higher-level grappler than Wikłacz and is better everywhere. He notes that Wikłacz shoots sloppy takedowns, which could lead to a submission for Mix. He predicts Mix wins by submission, likely a front choke or guillotine.

Patchy Mix by submission.
"I like Mix. I think it's going to be some sort of front choke, maybe a guillotine. So I'm going to say Patchy Mix by sub."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Patchy Mix

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Mix because Wiklacz is a much softer matchup than Mario Bautista, who exposed Mix's struggles against fighters his own size. Connor notes that Wiklacz is not a superb athlete and is two inches shorter, making him more forgiving, but he still expects a challenge due to Wiklacz's tenacity.

Mix opened at -300, currently -300; Wiklacz opened at +250, currently +250
"I'm going to pick patchy mix to win as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Patchy Mix

Mix is seen as a better version of Wikłacz, having faced much tougher competition. The host expects Mix to outscramble, outgrapple, and outwrestle Wikłacz en route to a decision victory.

"I believe Mix is just a better version of Wikłacz and has been facing much tougher competition throughout his career and I think that will lead to him going out there out scrambling, out grappling and out wrestling …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix, believing he is better than his last performance suggests. He notes Mix's solid resume and expects him to finish Jakub Wikłacz, who is an unproven prospect. He predicts a first-round submission, likely a guillotine.

first-round submission
"I'm going to go with Patchy Mix. I don't think this is some really great prospect that's going to be able to toppy topple Patchy Mix."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Patchy Mix

Zane picks Patchy Mix, noting that Wiklacz is a tenacious pressure fighter but lacks the elite athleticism and size that troubled Mix against Mario Bautista. He believes Mix should handle this matchup, but cautions that Mix still needs to prove he can beat fighters his own size, as his career has been built on smaller opponents.

Mix opened at -300, currently -300; Wiklacz opened at +250, currently +250
"I'm going to pick patchy mix to win as well."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 7 months, 4 weeks ago

Such an odd fight. Patchy cardio is sus. Flat on the feet walking into punches ect. Jakub held guard. Nice butterfly reverse. Jakub went for 6+ gul subs and has nice kicks. Does a double kick often. Good legs for triangle off his back ect.

Edmen Shahbazyan

Edmen Shahbazyan W

16-5
KO R1 4:58
Fight 9 VS Middleweight Completed

Edmen Shahbazyan

Moneyline
BetRivers -315
KO/TKO
BetRivers -157
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
FanDuel +650

André Muniz

Moneyline
FanDuel +260
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1600
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
FanDuel +800
Fighter Stats

Edmen Shahbazyan

Age28
Height6' 2"
Reach74.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

André Muniz

Age36
Height6' 1"
Reach78"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Edmen Shahbazyan

3.8SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.6SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
1.62TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - André Muniz

2.08SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.46SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
3.98TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
35.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Angelo sees this as a striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Edmen's striking advantage is wider than André's grappling advantage, and that Edmen can win by keeping the fight on the feet. He notes André's chin is starting to fail and that Edmen has good takedown defense when not tired. He also thinks the fight will not go the distance.

Fight does not go the distance.
"I think Edmond Shabbazian wins this fight... Whoever wins this fight is going to do so in dominant fashion. I think the best bet here is the fight does not go the distance."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady believes André Muniz has a weak chin, citing his recent knockout losses and a delayed reaction to a shot. He notes that Muniz has been knocked out six times and all his losses are inside the distance. He thinks Shahbazyan has power and will knock out Muniz, likely in the first round. He predicts a first-round knockout for Shahbazyan.

Edmen Shahbazyan by first round knockout.
"Give me Evan Shabbazian to win. And Evan Shabbazian to win by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
André Muniz

Connor picks Muniz to keep it interesting, seeing a path where Muniz sucks Shahbazyan into a grappling hell early on, making Shahbazyan fight well but have a miserable time, leading to his typical panic and collapse. He notes that Muniz's aggressive grappling could overwhelm Shahbazyan, especially if Muniz commits to wrestling from the start.

Shahbazyan opened at -175, currently -310; Muniz opened at +150, currently +260. Connor comments: 'Crazy considering how often Shabazzian has just self-destructed. It should be close.'
"I'll take Muniz just to keep it interesting. I can totally see the fight that you laid out. I can also see Muniz sucking Shabazzian into hell."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The host is skeptical of Shahbazyan as a chalky favorite due to gas tank issues, but still expects him to walk Munz onto a big shot and win by knockout.

"I'll always be skeptical in terms of playing Shahbazyan as a chalky favorite given his gas tank issues at times... I still think Shahbazyan will be able to walk Munz onto a big shot and win this fight …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan, believing his youth, power, and takedown defense will be key. He notes André Muniz's vulnerability to strikes and poor decision-making. He predicts a first-round TKO.

first-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Edmen Shahbazyan getting this one done by TKO in the first round over Andre Muniz."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Zane picks Shahbazyan because he believes Muniz is a pure grappler who is not good at staying in control of a fight, unlike the fighters who have previously broken Shahbazyan (e.g., Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson). He notes that Muniz is a risky, chancy grappler who can get a quick submission but is a mess standing, and Shahbazyan is a rangy, sharp shooter with good striking. However, he acknowledges the potential for Shahbazyan to meltdown.

Shahbazyan opened at -175, currently -310; Muniz opened at +150, currently +260. Zane comments: 'Crazy considering how often Shabazzian has just self-destructed. It should be close.'
"I'm going to take Shabazzian here because like I say, I once again, I just think that these kinds of this kind of pure grappler who is not that good at staying in control of a fight... I …"
Fight Notes
BR
brian 7 months, 4 weeks ago

Cardio for Edmen didnt look great. Andre looked big, got caught on the ear and then Edmen swarmed, gnp finish ( nice elbows)

Punahele Soriano

Punahele Soriano W

13-4
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 10 VS Welterweight Completed

Punahele Soriano

Moneyline
BetWay -333
KO/TKO
FanDuel +130
Submission
BetMGM +900
Decision
BetRivers +255

Nikolay Veretennikov

Moneyline
FanDuel +320
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
BetRivers +3000
Decision
FanDuel +900
Fighter Stats

Punahele Soriano

Age33
Height5' 11"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Nikolay Veretennikov

Age36
Height6' 1"
Reach74.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Punahele Soriano

4.42SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.31SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
1.97TD Avg
51.0%TD Acc.
48.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Nikolay Veretennikov

2.69SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
3.3SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.42TD Avg
16.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Angelo trusts that Punahele Soriano will use his wrestling, as a Division III All-American, to win, despite his tendency to sometimes just strike. He notes Soriano has heavy hands but poor takedown defense, while Veretennikov is a powerful striker who can be taken down. His concern is that Soriano might abandon wrestling after a recent knockout win. He is not betting on this fight.

Not betting on this fight.
"I'm going to trust the division three all-American wrestler to wrestle his way to a win... I'm going to pick Punel."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Big Brady likes Soriano, especially at welterweight, where he seems like a different animal with improved cardio and strength. He notes that Veretennikov has awful cardio and a poor ground game, and that Soriano can wrestle him, get him tired, and finish him on the mat. He predicts a second-round TKO for Soriano.

Soriano by second round TKO.
"I'm going to take Sorano here. I think he makes this look really easy with the correct game plan ... Give me Soraniano by second round TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Soriano but noting that it depends on whether Soriano fights well. He hopes to see a more aggressive, active, and wrestling-minded Soriano, as seen in his welterweight debut, but acknowledges that his previous opponents (Miguel Baeza and Eros Medich) were not reliable tests.

Soriano opened at -300, currently -332; Veretennikov opened at +250, currently +272. Connor comments: 'Possibly a bit wide. It's too wide. Soriano lost to Dustin Stoltzfus and Nick Maximov. He should not be a serious favorite over anybody.'
"I'll take Soriano too."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Punahele Soriano

Soriano is expected to put his power on Veretennikov early, and if he doesn't finish within the first minute and a half, he will resort to wrestling and grind out a decision win.

"I believe Soriano will do a great job in terms of putting his power early on Veretennikov, but if he can't get him out of there within the first minute and a half, he'll start resorting to his …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The MMA Guru confidently picks Punahele Soriano, comparing him to Francisco Prado who gave Veretennikov trouble. He notes Soriano's power, pressure, and ability to close distance, while Veretennikov stands too upright and struggles with aggressive fighters. He predicts a first-round KO.

first-round KO
"I'm going to go with Punelle Soriano first-round KO over Nikolai Veretennikov."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Zane picks Soriano because the welterweight move has made him feel bigger, stronger, and more confident, allowing him to wrestle more effectively. He notes that Veretennikov is a bad wrestler who gave up takedowns to Francisco Prado, and Soriano should be able to exploit that. However, he cautions that Soriano is prone to inactivity and single-idea offense.

Soriano opened at -300, currently -332; Veretennikov opened at +250, currently +272. Zane comments: 'Possibly a bit wide. It's too wide. Soriano lost to Dustin Stoltzfus and Nick Maximov. He should not be a serious favorite over anybody.'
"I got to go with Soriano here."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 11 VS Catchweight (137.5 lb) Completed
Yana Santos

Yana Santos W

17-8
Decision R3 5:00

Macy Chiasson

Moneyline
BetRivers -200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +750
Submission
BetMGM +450
Decision
FanDuel +155

Yana Santos

Moneyline
Caesars +180
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1200
Submission
BetMGM +2800
Decision
FanDuel +240
Fighter Stats

Macy Chiasson

Age34
Height5' 11"
Reach72.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Yana Santos

Age36
Height5' 6"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Macy Chiasson

3.21SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
2.76SApM
44.0%Str. Def.
1.87TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Yana Santos

4.41SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
3.12SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.78TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
51.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yana Santos

Angelo likes Yana Santos as a plus-185 underdog. He thinks Macy Chiasson has abandoned her Muay Thai style for grappling, which plays into Yana's strengths as a good striker with good footwork and range management. He notes that in Las Vegas, takedowns don't score well, so empty takedowns won't help Macy. He also mentions a potential plus-3.5 spread bet.

Plus 185 underdog; considering plus 3.5 spread bet.
"I think Jana is a phenomenal underdog here. Plus 185. I think she's a great underdog here... I am going to lean Giannis Santos here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Big Brady is confident in Macy Chiasson, noting that Yana Santos is very bad on the bottom and has been knocked out multiple times. He believes Chiasson can get takedowns and finish the fight with ground and pound or a submission. He acknowledges that Chiasson struggled against Ketlen Vieira, but attributes that to Vieira's elite takedown defense. He predicts a third-round submission for Chiasson.

Macy Chiasson by third round submission.
"I think Macy wins here. I think she gets on top. I think she gets takedowns and I think she finds a finish. I think she finishes Jana Santos. I'll say third round submission for Macy Chazison in …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yana Santos

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Santos because Chiasson's offensive piling up is a thin veneer that collapses when things go wrong. He expects Chiasson to crash into the clinch and get bullied on the fence, as she does when she is not the stronger fighter. He also notes that Santos is a neutralizer who can break through Chiasson's game.

Chiasson opened at -300, currently -200; Santos opened at +250, currently +170
"I'll take Santos too."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Yana Santos

Chiasson missed weight again, and the host sees this as an opportunity for Santos to take advantage with her striking advantage and good takedown defense, running away with the fight on the scorecards.

"I think that this is a perfect opportunity for Santos to take advantage of that by really putting on Chiasson with her striking advantage, utilizing her good takedown defense early, and then running away with this matchup and …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

The MMA Guru picks Macy Chiasson, citing her physicality and size advantage. He notes that Yana Santos lacks a logical path to victory and Chiasson's pressure and clinch work should be enough. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going with Macy Chiasson. I'm looking at the Irene Aldana fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yana Santos

Zane picks Santos because Chiasson's success depends on being bigger and stronger than her opponent, and when she is not, she looks weak and collapses. He notes that Santos is big and awkward, and can keep the fight at her range or be competitive inside physically. He also points out that Santos has beaten Ketlen Vieira and Misha Tate, while Chiasson lost to Vieira and would likely lose to Tate.

Chiasson opened at -300, currently -200; Santos opened at +250, currently +170
"I got to pick Santos here."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 12 VS Bantamweight Completed
Farid Basharat

Farid Basharat W

15-0
Decision R3 5:00

Chris Gutierrez

Moneyline
Caesars +430
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1100
Submission
BetRivers +3300
Decision
BetRivers +900

Farid Basharat

Moneyline
BetWay -500
KO/TKO
BetRivers +950
Submission
BetWay +500
Decision
FanDuel -155
Fighter Stats

Chris Gutierrez

Age35
Height5' 9"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Farid Basharat

Age28
Height5' 8"
Reach71.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Chris Gutierrez

4.4SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
2.65SApM
63.0%Str. Def.
0.3TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
67.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Farid Basharat

4.25SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
2.89SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
3.34TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
54.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Angelo sees Farid Basharat as the better fighter everywhere, with underrated striking and very good wrestling. He notes Chris Gutierrez has wrestling holes, having been taken down seven times in his last four fights. He thinks Farid's takedown defense and movement will be key, and that Gutierrez's leg kicks might not be enough to slow him down. He considers the 4-to-1 odds appropriate.

"Fared is an underrated striker, a very good wrestler. I think he can beat Chris Gutierrez everywhere. I think he likely wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Big Brady is very confident in Farid Basharat, calling him a massive favorite at -450. He criticizes Chris Gutierrez as a boring fighter who relies on leg kicks and has poor takedown defense and get-up game. He notes that Gutierrez has been taken down by lesser wrestlers, and Basharat has a massive advantage in wrestling and grappling. He predicts Basharat wins by decision.

"Give me Farid Bosat. I think he wins this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Farid Basharat

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Basharat because Gutierrez has shown he cannot handle persistent pressure, as in the Pedro Munhoz fight. He notes that Basharat's real skill is taking openings given to him, using strikes to set up takedowns, and that Gutierrez's frustration will mount. However, he cautions that Basharat has never applied the relentless pressure of Munhoz and may need to adjust to Gutierrez's frustrating style.

Basharat opened at -600, currently -450; Gutierrez opened at +450, currently +350. Connor comments: 'Basra, way too big a favorite here. This is a much more difficult test than most he's faced to this point.'
"I think Basra is going to go out there and pressure and wrestle him... I think Basra is that's exactly what he wants to do."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Farid Basharat

Basharat's grinding game is expected to be effective against Gutierrez, who is a fish off his back. The host expects Basharat to be competitive in striking and mix in wrestling for a decision victory.

"I believe this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Basharat to go out there and get to his grinding game as most opponents have struggled to deal with it. Specifically, Gutierrez, who is a fish off his back."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Farid Basharat, citing his offensive grappling and mixing of strikes. He notes Chris Gutierrez's vulnerability to takedowns and lack of finishing ability. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going to go with Farid Basharat getting this one done by 29-28 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Farid Basharat

Zane picks Basharat because he believes Basharat's pressure and wrestling will break Gutierrez, who has a history of emotional breakdowns when fights get difficult, as seen against Pedro Munhoz. He notes that Basharat's game allows for connective pressure, and even if Gutierrez frustrates him early, Basharat's versatility will eventually overwhelm Gutierrez's neutralization game.

Basharat opened at -600, currently -450; Gutierrez opened at +450, currently +350. Zane comments: 'Basra, way too big a favorite here. This is a much more difficult test than most he's faced to this point.'
"I think Basra is going to go out there and pressure and wrestle him... I think Basra is that's exactly what he wants to do."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 7 months, 4 weeks ago

Chris was ok. Farid nice takedowns. Went a little for the finish in the second. Farid cardio was weak in rd3 in a fight he mostly controlled. A big issue going foward surely

Ramiz Brahimaj

Ramiz Brahimaj W

13-6
Submission R2 2:24
Fight 13 VS Welterweight Completed

Ramiz Brahimaj

Moneyline
BetRivers +475
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1200
Submission
BetRivers +575
Decision
BetRivers +950

Austin Vanderford

Moneyline
BetWay -275
KO/TKO
FanDuel +380
Submission
BetRivers +800
Decision
FanDuel +120
Fighter Stats

Ramiz Brahimaj

Age33
Height5' 10"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Austin Vanderford

Age36
Height5' 11"
Reach74.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Ramiz Brahimaj

2.29SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.27SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
1.99TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
44.0%TD Def.
1.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Austin Vanderford

3.04SLpM
59.0%Str. Acc.
2.71SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
3.08TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
1.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Austin Vanderford

Angelo sees this as a grappler vs grappler matchup. He believes Austin Vanderford is the better wrestler, which is the key factor since both have similar jiu-jitsu and striking. He notes that Ramiz Brahimaj can get stuck on his back and that his jiu-jitsu off his back is not as good as on top. He expects Vanderford to get takedowns and control the fight, but is not very confident in a finish.

"Austin Vanderford's going to be the pick. Not the most confident pick I have on this card though."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Austin Vanderford

Big Brady acknowledges that Ramiz Brahimaj is live in the first round, as he typically wins early. However, he believes Vanderford can survive the early storm, extend the fight, and mix in takedowns as the fight goes on. He notes that Brahimaj has slowed down in longer fights and that Vanderford is a good grappler. He predicts Vanderford by decision.

If you like Brahimaj, take him to win in round one.
"I think the more likely scenario is Vanderford survives an early storm ... starts mixing the takedowns as the fight goes on ... give me Vanderford here. I'm going to take Vanderford to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ramiz Brahimaj

Connor picks Brahimaj hesitantly, noting that while both fighters are similar, Brahimaj will bring an aggressive fight and is more likely to push the pace. He acknowledges that Vanderford is vulnerable and that Brahimaj has power, but admits there is not much to separate them.

Brahimaj opened at +210, currently +250; Vanderford opened at -250, currently -300
"I'll take my, I think I'm still not sold on Vanderford, but yeah, I kind of agree. I'm in Vanderford."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Austin Vanderford

The host believes Vanderford will utilize his grappling excellence to stay out of Brahimaj's submission danger and eventually secure a second or third round TKO finish.

second or third round TKO finish
"I think this is a great fight for Vanderford to utilize his grappling excellence to stay out of the submission danger of Brahimaj and eventually lead to a second or third round TKO finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Austin Vanderford

The MMA Guru picks Austin Vanderford, believing his size, wrestling, and durability will be too much for Ramiz Brahimaj. He notes Brahimaj's inconsistency and poor performances against solid competition, while Vanderford has shown grit and improving grappling. He predicts a decision win for Vanderford.

"I'm going to go with Austin Vanderford getting this one done and I'm actually going to say that he gets this done by decision over Ramiz Brahimaj."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Austin Vanderford

Zane picks Vanderford hesitantly, noting that both fighters are similar: good grapplers but not slick strikers. He gives Vanderford the edge because he can lay on opponents better and is more likely to control the fight, though he is also more likely to get knocked out when he screws up. Zane admits it's a coin flip.

Brahimaj opened at +210, currently +250; Vanderford opened at -250, currently -300
"I'll take my, I think I'm still not sold on Vanderford, but yeah, I kind of agree. I'm in Vanderford."
Fight Notes

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Veronica Hardy

Veronica Hardy W

10-5-1
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 14 VS Women's Flyweight Completed

Veronica Hardy

Moneyline
BetWay -649
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
FanDuel -210

Brogan Walker

Moneyline
Caesars +600
KO/TKO
BetRivers +4000
Submission
BetRivers +2400
Decision
Unibet +850
Fighter Stats

Veronica Hardy

Age30
Height5' 4"
Reach64.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Brogan Walker

Age37
Height5' 4"
Reach67.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Veronica Hardy

3.06SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.24SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.82TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
51.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Brogan Walker

1.84SLpM
32.0%Str. Acc.
3.32SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
1.02TD Avg
75.0%TD Acc.
11.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Veronica Hardy

Angelo is very confident in Veronica Hardy, calling her a 5-to-1 favorite who should be 10-to-1. He highlights her Taekwondo background, good footwork, technical striking, and ability to cut angles. He notes she also has clean takedowns and high fight IQ, while Brogan Walker is described as not very good at fighting, with a gifted BJJ black belt and infrequent fights. He expects an easy win for Hardy.

"Veronica Hardy at more than a 5 to1 favorite taking on Broen Walker. Frankly, she should be a 10 to1 favorite."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Veronica Hardy

Big Brady is very confident in Veronica Hardy, calling her the second biggest favorite at -825. He notes that Brogan Walker is 36 years old, hasn't fought in two and a half years, and looked awful in her last two fights. He believes Hardy is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and grappling—and that Hardy would have to try really hard to lose. He predicts a decision win for Hardy.

"Veronica Hardy should win this fight. I think she's better everywhere. She's the better striker. She's the better wrestler. ... Give me Veronica Hardy. Veronica Hardy by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Veronica Hardy

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Hardy because Walker is uncoordinated and has not shown improvement. He notes that Hardy is a good athlete with a technical base, and even though she used to fall apart early in her career, she has become a more competitive fighter. He expects Hardy to win easily.

Hardy opened at -400, currently -825; Walker opened at +330, currently +575. Connor comments: 'You don't need Brogan Walker in the UFC.'
"I just have to assume she's kind of raised by Walker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Veronica Hardy

Hardy is a heavy favorite at minus 800, but the host does not consider it bet-worthy. He expects Hardy to chip away at Walker and win on the scorecards, noting Walker's extended layoff of two and a half years.

not bet worthy at -800
"Hardy, even at minus 800, is just not betting bet worthy in this spot. I still expect her to go out there, chip away at Walker, and win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Veronica Hardy

The MMA Guru picks Veronica Hardy, citing her technical striking and submission game. He notes that while she struggles against physical opponents, Brogan Walker hasn't shown enough to win. He expects a close 29-28 decision, with Hardy's technical kicks and submissions being the difference.

"I'm going to go with Veronica Hardy to start this off."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Veronica Hardy

Zane picks Hardy confidently, stating that Brogan Walker is really bad and uncoordinated, and has not fought in over two years. He notes that Hardy is fast, technical, and has become a consistent round-to-round fighter with good conditioning and well-rounded skills. He believes Hardy will easily outclass Walker.

Hardy opened at -400, currently -825; Walker opened at +330, currently +575. Zane comments: 'You don't need Brogan Walker in the UFC.'
"I just have to assume she's kind of raised by Walker."
Fight Notes

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