Macy Chiasson

Angelo is shocked that Ailín Pérez is only a -165 favorite, believing she should be a -300 favorite. He highlights Pérez's relentless takedowns and pressure, noting that Macy Chiasson gets taken down easily and has been on a losing skid. He expects Pérez to shoot takedowns and win a decision, especially with the Mexican judges favoring aggression.

Big Brady picks Ailín Pérez but expresses hesitation due to elevation concerns and Pérez's history of gassing. He compares Macy Chiasson to 'female Phil Rowe,' noting she is big but ineffective and can be controlled on the ground. He believes Pérez can take Chiasson down and win the first two rounds, but the third could be sketchy. He predicts a decision win.

Cody agrees, noting Chiasson's weight cut issues and tendency to fade. He highlights Pérez's strong top game and expects a decision win. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to potentially get better odds on Pérez.

Connor picks Pérez, noting that Chiasson is breakable and lacks durability. He points out that Chiasson's wins often come when she is confident, but she tends to fade or get finished. Pérez is tough and knows how to win, making her the safer pick despite Chiasson's finishing ability.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host is betting on Chiasson despite her inconsistency because the odds are too wide. He believes Chiasson is better than Pérez everywhere: she has a huge size and reach advantage, is a better striker and grappler, and has superior cardio. However, Chiasson has self-destructive tendencies and bad fight IQ, making her unreliable. The host caps the fight at 50/50 because Chiasson only shows up half the time, but at +149, the value is too good to pass up. He also notes Pérez's cardio may suffer at high altitude.

James favors Pérez due to her wrestling and top control, which should neutralize Chiasson's striking. He notes Chiasson's confidence issues and tendency to wilt when pressured. James predicts Pérez wins by decision, though he admits bias as he knows Pérez personally.

The host picks Macy Chiasson as an underdog, surprised that Pérez is -185. He believes Chiasson is stronger and lands more damage, while Pérez relies on grinding top control. He expects Chiasson to defend takedowns and land the better strikes, winning a decision. He notes Chiasson's recent losing streak but thinks she matches up well.

Paul expects Pérez to use her wrestling to control Chiasson, who struggles with weight cuts and cardio at altitude. He sees a decision win for Pérez and recommends waiting for weigh-ins to confirm Chiasson's condition.

The MMA Guru picks Ailín Pérez, trusting her takedown entries and physicality. He notes that Macy Chiasson looked bad in her last fight against Irene Aldana, and he believes Pérez can take her down and control the ground. He predicts a 29-28 decision win, acknowledging that Pérez has been improving and has a strong build for the division.

Angelo likes Yana Santos as a plus-185 underdog. He thinks Macy Chiasson has abandoned her Muay Thai style for grappling, which plays into Yana's strengths as a good striker with good footwork and range management. He notes that in Las Vegas, takedowns don't score well, so empty takedowns won't help Macy. He also mentions a potential plus-3.5 spread bet.

Big Brady is confident in Macy Chiasson, noting that Yana Santos is very bad on the bottom and has been knocked out multiple times. He believes Chiasson can get takedowns and finish the fight with ground and pound or a submission. He acknowledges that Chiasson struggled against Ketlen Vieira, but attributes that to Vieira's elite takedown defense. He predicts a third-round submission for Chiasson.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Santos because Chiasson's offensive piling up is a thin veneer that collapses when things go wrong. He expects Chiasson to crash into the clinch and get bullied on the fence, as she does when she is not the stronger fighter. He also notes that Santos is a neutralizer who can break through Chiasson's game.

Chiasson missed weight again, and the host sees this as an opportunity for Santos to take advantage with her striking advantage and good takedown defense, running away with the fight on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Macy Chiasson, citing her physicality and size advantage. He notes that Yana Santos lacks a logical path to victory and Chiasson's pressure and clinch work should be enough. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, believing she can bully Macy Chiasson by closing the distance and negating Chiasson's length. He notes that Vieira lost to Kayla Harrison (potential champion) while Chiasson's win was due to a cut. He is cautious about betting on someone coming off a loss but would bet on Vieira as a dog if odds flip.

Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira with low confidence, citing her elite takedown defense (88%) as the key factor. He notes that even Kayla Harrison struggled to take Vieira down. He believes Vieira is the better striker if the fight stays standing and may even take Chiasson down, as Chiasson has been taken down by lesser fighters. He expects a close decision.

Connor picks Chiasson for being crazy and aggressive, and because Vieira looks consistently uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that if Vieira cannot get takedowns, Chiasson could be the more aggressive clinch striker. However, he acknowledges the fight is low-level and hard to call.

Matt picks Macy Chiasson to win by decision. He values Chiasson's physicality and improving striking, which he believes will overcome Vieira's technical striking. He notes that Chiasson blends her striking with grappling effectively and sees value at -125, estimating her true odds around -150 to -185. He expects a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Macy Chiasson over Ketlen Vieira, citing Chiasson's volume, pressure, and physicality advantage. He criticizes Vieira's recent performance against Miesha Tate and believes Chiasson's grit will force a high-output fight. He worries about a potential submission from Vieira but overall favors Chiasson.

Cody picks Chiasson, citing her size, wrestling, and cardio advantages. He notes that Bueno Silva has poor takedown defense and cardio issues, and that Chiasson has consistently scored takedowns against tough opponents. Cody believes Chiasson will use her clinch work and wrestling to wear on Bueno Silva, and that she can win a decision or possibly get a submission. He also mentions that Bueno Silva's best wins are over lower-tier competition and that she failed a drug test.

Daniel believes Bueno Silva has championship potential, citing her power, calf kicks, and opportunistic submissions. He notes that her loss to Pennington came when she was sick and had a busted eardrum. He views Chiasson as having physical attributes but being flaky and prone to mistakes under pressure. He thinks Bueno Silva is meaner, more athletic, and has a higher trajectory.

Daniel Vreeland picks Macy Chiasson because she has looked better recently, rounding out her game and improving her takedown defense. He notes that Chiasson is a better striker than Bueno Silva and has a significant reach advantage (six inches). Vreeland believes Bueno Silva's only path to victory is grinding, but Chiasson has the skills to stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing. He also cites Bueno Silva's poor gas tank in her last fight against Raquel Pennington as a concern.

Jeff Fox picks Macy Chiasson, echoing Vreeland's reasoning. He notes that Bueno Silva did not look good in her last fight and has gas tank concerns. Fox points out that Chiasson is way bigger, a better striker, and has improved her grappling. He also mentions that Chiasson's coach will keep her focused.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host leans Chiasson, citing her strength and ability to grind on Bueno Silva. He notes Bueno Silva is dangerous with submissions off her back early, but if Chiasson can control her against the cage for the first 6-7 minutes and then take her down, she will have success. He mentions the line has moved from +180 to nearly pick'em, indicating confidence in Chiasson.

Paul picks Bueno Silva by submission, noting that her submission grappling is her biggest weapon. He acknowledges that Chiasson is bigger and has better wrestling, but believes Bueno Silva can catch her in a submission if the fight goes to the ground. Paul points out that Bueno Silva has a history of pulling off submissions from seemingly losing positions, and that the plus-370 odds for her by submission offer value.

Angelo acknowledges Kianzad has a big striking advantage with her boxing, but she was unable to get up off the bottom in her last fight against Ketlen Vieira. Chiasson has added grappling to her game, taking down Norma Dumont six times and Irene Aldana three times. He thinks Chiasson will get takedowns and hold Kianzad down. He also suggests a plus 3.5 round bet on Kianzad as she might win a round on the feet.

Big Brady picks Macy Chiasson to win by decision. He expects Chiasson's size and physicality to be too much for Kianzad, allowing her to control the fight against the cage and on the mat. He references Kianzad's recent loss to Vieira as a blueprint.

Cody leans toward Macy Chiasson, citing her size, physicality, and grappling advantage. He notes she has choked Kianzad out before and is the better grappler. However, he is wary of the minus 240 line due to Chiasson's weight cut struggles and long layoff. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins before betting.

Lucrative James picks Macy Chiasson to win, likely by submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Chiasson is physically stronger, has better grappling, and finished Kianzad before on The Ultimate Fighter. He also questions whether Kianzad has lost a step and mentions Chiasson's recent performances against tough opponents. He expresses concern about Chiasson's weight cut but still expects her to win.

The host acknowledges Kianzad's striking advantage but believes she will be frustrated by Chiasson's grapple-heavy approach. He notes Chiasson's ability to bully opponents in the clinch and get fights to the ground easily, where she can rough up Kianzad from top position for the majority of the fight and win by decision.

Paul passes on betting this fight, noting Chiasson's weight cut issues and unimpressive recent performances. He mentions the bizarre liver kick loss to Aldana and questions her durability. He does not pick a winner and says it's a pass from a betting perspective.

Angelo picks Macy Chiasson, noting she can beat Irene Aldana the same way Holly Holm did: manage distance and use takedowns. He thinks Chiasson's length and grappling will be key, and she just took down Norma Dumont six times. He placed a small moneyline bet at +178, which has since moved to +160.

Big Brady picks Irene Aldana to win by decision, highlighting her 84% takedown defense and superior striking. He notes Macy Chiasson's path to victory relies on using her size and clinch, but Aldana's takedown defense is phenomenal and she has fought much better competition. He believes Aldana has more power and better cardio, and a finish wouldn't shock him.

Cody is confident in Irene Aldana, having already bet her at -161. He believes Aldana dominates on the feet, as Chiasson's wrestling is not highly rated and her cardio fades. He notes that Chiasson's move back to 135 could be problematic. He thinks Aldana's boxing and footwork will be too much.

Daniel Levi picks Irene Aldana but with low confidence. He notes Aldana's high output and power, but also her tendency to underperform in favored spots. He acknowledges Chiasson's physical advantages (height, reach) and improved wrestling, as seen against Dumont. Levi says he's been burnt by Aldana before and won't lay the chalk, but still sees her as the pick.

Jacob picks Irene Aldana, praising her composure and power. He notes she handled Yana Kunitskaya's pressure well and landed a fight-ending left hook. He thinks Chiasson does not like getting hit and will panic when Aldana lands. He believes Aldana will find the big shot and capitalize.

The host is very confident in Irene Aldana, expecting her to nullify Chiasson's clinch and grappling with excellent takedown defense. He believes Aldana's crisp striking will lead to a knockout in the second or third round. He calls -180 a gift.

Paul picks Aldana but with hesitation, noting that women's MMA is unpredictable. He acknowledges Chiasson's wrestling could be a factor if she takes Aldana down, but he believes Aldana's striking improvements and speed advantage will carry her. He is concerned about Aldana's 14-month layoff but thinks she has used the time well.

Angelo picks Norma Dumont, liking her to crowd Macy and light her up in the pocket. He thinks Dumont will work takedowns against the cage but expects a striking match. He notes that the odds are wide and Dumont should be around -130, not -270.

Big Brady picks Norma Dumont to win by decision. He believes Dumont is the more well-rounded fighter with good striking and grappling. Chiasson has a size advantage in height and reach, but her takedown defense is a liability, as seen against Renaud and Lansberg. Dumont can mix in takedowns and control Chiasson on the mat. Brady thinks the line is wide but agrees Dumont should be the favorite. He expects a competitive fight on the feet but Dumont's path to victory is through takedowns and control.

Cody picks Norma Dumont but is not confident at -225. He notes that Chiasson is moving up to 145 and has defensive liabilities. Dumont has a slight grappling and striking advantage, and her technical boxing is sharper. However, Cody thinks the price is too high and that the fight is closer to a coin flip. He will keep an eye on weigh-ins.

Daniel Levi picks Norma Dumont confidently, citing her fundamentals, jab, leg kicks, and well-rounded game. He questions Chiasson's mental toughness and heart, noting she has been outworked despite size advantages. He expects Dumont to win a decision. However, he does not bet the fight because he does not want to lay -220.

The host picks Norma Dumont, believing she is the better striker and physically strong enough to negate Chiasson's bullying style. He notes Chiasson's success comes from being the bigger fighter, but Dumont is thick and strong. He expects Dumont to land the more significant strikes and possibly get a knockdown. He is not keen on betting Dumont at -220 but prefers the decision prop at +100. He also likes 'fight goes to decision' at -220.

Paul does not make a clear pick. He is torn on this fight and mentions liking the under 2.5 rounds at +180. He notes that Dumont has won by cage control and greasy decisions, but he doesn't love the fight. He does not express a preference for either fighter.

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes that Pennington is a grinder who uses cage control and pressure, but that Macy Chiasson uses her reach well and has good Muay Thai. He believes the small cage at the Apex may limit Chiasson's ability to circle, but still sees Chiasson as a live underdog. Angelo expects a boring win for Pennington but not a cakewalk.

Big Brady initially liked Pennington but changed his pick after learning the fight is at 145 lbs, which he believes massively favors Chiasson. He notes Chiasson's size, youth, and experience at featherweight, and expects her to use her height and reach to win a close decision. He mentions Pennington's takedown ability but thinks the weight class change is decisive.

Cody likes Chiasson as a dog, noting the fight is at 145 lbs which favors her. He points out that Pennington has looked disinterested since her title fight and has poor striking. Chiasson is bigger, stronger, and has better striking at range and in the clinch. Cody thinks Chiasson can win by outworking Pennington.

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Raquel Pennington. He praises Pennington's grit, durability, and experience, noting she only loses to former champions. However, he points out that many of Pennington's wins are split decisions, making it a close fight. Levi is concerned about Chiasson's size and reach advantage at 145, and wonders if Pennington's clinch game will be less effective against a taller opponent. He thinks Chiasson could win if she has improved, but ultimately picks Pennington to edge out a decision.

Jacob picks Macy Chiasson, believing the UFC is setting her up to be a contender. He thinks the fight comes down to clinch work, and that Chiasson is bigger, more physical, and nastier than Pennington at this point. He expects Chiasson to win a dirty decision, possibly with a finish. Jacob notes that Chiasson has never been finished and has finishing ability herself.

The host picks Pennington by decision, citing her well-rounded game and experience. He notes that Chiasson relies on being physical and bullying, but if she can't do that, she succumbs. He expects Pennington to pull away in the later rounds and win a 15-minute fight. He likes the decision prop at +115.

Paul agrees with Chiasson, citing the reach advantage and the weight class change. He notes Pennington isn't big for 135, let alone 145, and Chiasson doesn't have to cut much weight. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and leans Chiasson.

Big Brady picks Macy Chiasson, citing her youth, strength, and size advantage over the 43-year-old Reneau. He expects Chiasson to press Reneau against the cage and win a decision, though he notes Chiasson has shown vulnerabilities in the past. He does not recommend betting at -220 but believes Chiasson wins.

Daniel Levi picks Macy Chiasson but expresses concerns about her technique and mental fortitude. He notes her size advantage and believes she can grind out a win if she avoids submissions. He worries about Reneau's power and opportunistic finishing ability but thinks Chiasson's path to victory is takedowns and control.

Chiasson relies on brute strength and tends to fade in the third round, as seen against Lansberg. Reneau is technically better on the feet and has a wealth of experience. If Reneau survives the first two rounds without being finished, she should take over in the third. Reneau by third-round submission is the play, as she has late finishes on her record.