UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown because he believes Brown is the better striker with great range and solid takedown defense. He notes that Gabriel Bonfim struggled with takedowns against Wonderboy and that Brown's length and boxing from the outside will be key. He also mentions that Brown was screwed in a previous decision and is a very good fighter.

Big Brady sees this as Bonfim early or Brown late. He notes Bonfim has power and an opportunistic submission game, and Brown has been submitted and knocked out before. He thinks Bonfim can get an early finish, possibly by first-round submission, but if it goes to the third round, Brown will take over. He mentions a potential live bet on Brown.

Cody thinks Bonfim's cardio is suspect in a five-round fight and that Brown's length, straight punches, and volume will pose problems as the fight goes on. He notes Bonfim's takedowns are explosive early but fade, and Brown can survive early rounds and take over later. He prefers to bet Brown live after the first round rather than straight up.

Lucrative James picks Gabriel Bonfim to win, but he is not confident. He notes Bonfim's strong first round and submission threat (72% of wins via submission), but questions his cardio and ability to finish Randy Brown. He expects Bonfim to win round one and then edge out a decision, as Brown's style may not pressure Bonfim into gassing. He also mentions a potential over bet or goes to decision prop.

The host expects chaos and considers the under 2.5 rounds at plus money. He believes Bonfim will drag Brown to the ground and use his superior BJJ to secure a submission within two and a half rounds.

Paul picks Bonfim but has no interest in the minus 180 price. He thinks Bonfim's cardio has improved and he can get a finish early, possibly by submission or knockout. He suggests betting the under 2.5 rounds as a better play than the moneyline.

The Guru picks Randy Brown to win by third-round TKO. He believes Brown's experience and striking will be key, especially if he survives Bonfim's early grappling. He notes Bonfim's tendency to fade if he doesn't get a quick submission, and Brown's ability to stuff takedowns and pick him apart at range.

Angelo picks Joseph Morales because he has good takedowns and Matt Schnell has poor takedown defense. He notes that even though Schnell has good jiu-jitsu, Morales is also good on top and can avoid submissions. He calls the fight straightforward: one guy can get takedowns, the other can't defend them.

Big Brady is very confident in Morales, predicting a submission win via double tap. He notes Schnell has been finished eight times, has poor takedown defense, and a weak chin. He believes Morales will hurt Schnell on the feet, take him down, and lock up a submission, causing Schnell to double tap.

Cody is confident in Morales, citing his improved skills at Team Alpha Male, his dominant TUF run, and his win over Alibi Idris. He notes Schnell's poor durability, cardio, and ring IQ, and believes Morales will find a finish via submission or knockout.

Lucrative James is confident in Joseph Morales. He highlights Morales' superior wrestling and grappling, noting that Matt Schnell has been taken down and submitted throughout his career. He believes Morales can replicate Jimmy Flick's game plan but with better cardio, and predicts a submission finish. He also mentions Morales' good guard and ability to finish from top or bottom.

The host believes Morales is underrated and will showcase dominance in grappling, taking advantage of Schnell's submission defense issues. He expects Morales to find a submission within two rounds.

Paul agrees, highlighting Morales's youth, improved striking and wrestling, and Schnell's tendency to make mistakes and get finished. He thinks Morales can outwork Schnell and that the fight ending inside the distance is a good parlay piece.

The Guru picks Joseph Morales to win by TKO. He believes Morales has better striking, a more reliable chin, and good takedown defense, while Matt Schnell is hittable and prone to getting stunned. He expects Schnell to shoot failing takedowns and get finished on the feet.

Angelo picks Uros Medic because he is younger, faster, and more technical, but he is not confident. He notes that Muslim Salikhov hits extremely hard and has wrestling, making him a phenomenal underdog. He acknowledges that Medic was almost finished by Gilbert Urbina, which raises concerns about his chin.

Big Brady has a hot take predicting Salikhov wins by spinning wheel kick knockout in the first round. He highlights Salikhov's patented spinning wheel kick, which he has used to knock out multiple opponents, including Carlos Leia. He questions Medić's durability, noting he got knocked down by Gilbert Urbina, which is a bad sign. He expects an early knockout.

Cody picks Salikhov, noting his power and counter-striking ability. He thinks Medić's aggressive, forward-moving style plays into Salikhov's hands, and that Salikhov will land a knockout early.

Lucrative James picks Muslim Salikhov despite acknowledging the volatility of the matchup. He notes Salikhov's higher level of competition and experience, as well as his recent training camp improvements. However, he admits both fighters have poor chins and heavy hands, making it a coin flip. He predicts Salikhov wins by knockout in round one, but also considers betting on the under or 'doesn't go to decision'.

The host expects a firecracker fight and loves the under 1.5 rounds. He believes Medic will snipe Salikhov from distance and win by knockout within five minutes.

Paul also picks Salikhov, calling the fight a 'car crash' and expecting a knockout. He likes the plus money on the older fighter and thinks Medić's durability issues will be exposed.

The Guru picks Muslim Salikhov to win by first-round KO. He believes Uroš Medić is too easily hit and erratic, lunging in with punches, while Salikhov has powerful spinning attacks and counters. He expects Salikhov to catch Medić coming in and finish him early.

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim because he is better everywhere, but he acknowledges the concern about Ismael quitting on the stool in his last fight. He argues that Ismael took a massive shot to the face and was not fully there, so he is not a quitter. He expects Ismael to win but notes that Chris Padilla is tough and a live dog.

Big Brady thinks Bonfim is the more skilled fighter with good boxing and volume, but worries about his durability as he has been finished in all five losses. He notes Padilla is durable and has heart but doesn't wrestle enough. He favors Bonfim's striking over 15 minutes and predicts a decision win, though he thinks a finish is more likely from Padilla.

Cody picks Bonfim but is not confident. He notes Padilla's awkward movement and counter-striking, and Bonfim's one-dimensional style and questionable cardio. He thinks Bonfim's volume and aggression might win a decision, but it's a risky bet.

Lucrative James leans towards Chris Padilla, though he admits he doesn't have a great read on him. He notes Padilla's dangerous striking and ability to win close fights, while Ismael Bonfim is more predictable. He expects Padilla to land better shots, possibly cutting Bonfim, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Padilla's finishing upside via submission or doctor stoppage.

The host thinks Bonfim has underachieved recently while Padilla has overachieved, and expects a correction. Bonfim should dictate the pace, land more damage, and win on the scorecards in deep water.

Paul leans Bonfim but is not betting him. He thinks Bonfim's volume could be key, but Padilla's counter-striking and Bonfim's tendency to run into shots are concerns. He mentions a small shot on Padilla KO at plus 600.

The Guru picks Chris Padilla as a crafty underdog. He believes Padilla's experience, reach, and versatility (elbows, kicks, spinning attacks) will trouble Ismael Bonfim, who has struggled against gritty opponents. He expects a close decision win for Padilla, 29-28.

Angelo picks Marco Tulio, stating he is better everywhere. He believes Marco's takedown defense will be good enough to keep the fight standing, and that Christian Leroy Duncan will resort to takedowns too late after getting touched up. He is surprisingly confident given the line.

Big Brady leans toward Tulio, noting his incredible striking volume and wrestling/grappling upside. He worries about Tulio's hittability and past knockout loss, but thinks Duncan is KO or bust. He predicts Tulio wins comfortably on the scorecards if Duncan doesn't land a knockout.

Cody picks Tulio, citing his high volume and pressure. He thinks Duncan's lack of volume and tendency to clinch will be neutralized, and Tulio will outwork him.

Lucrative James picks Marco Tulio, citing his higher ceiling and more vicious striking. He notes Tulio's offensive output and grappling upside, while criticizing Christian Leroy Duncan's lackluster performances against top competition. He acknowledges Tulio's hand injury but believes he has recovered. He expects Tulio to win, though not dominate.

The host disagrees with the betting public favoring Tulio, believing Duncan is the better striker with good clinch strength. He expects Duncan to wear Tulio down and eventually land a big shot for a knockout.

Paul picks Tulio, noting his volume and pressure. He thinks Duncan's durability is fine but Tulio's pace will be too much, and the fight likely goes over 2.5 rounds.

The Guru picks Marco Tulio over Christian Leroy Duncan. He believes Tulio has more natural pop in his punches and a better flow state, while Duncan relies on flashy techniques. He expects a close fight with Tulio landing the more significant shots and winning a hard-fought decision.

Angelo slightly leans Hyder Amil as the underdog because of his insane volume and pressure. He thinks if Amil's chin holds up and he walks through Jamal's power, he can wear him down. He notes that Jamal Emmers is not as good as previously thought, as shown in his last fight where he got taken down and had his back taken.

Big Brady is excited for this fight, calling Amil an absolute animal who comes forward with pressure and never stops. He notes Emmers has been knocked out three times and submitted several times. He predicts Amil wins by second-round knockout, but acknowledges Emmers could catch him early.

Cody picks Amil, citing his durability, cardio, and power. He thinks Emmers fades after the first round and Amil will catch him with clubbing shots. He predicts a TKO in the first or second round.

Lucrative James picks Hyder Amil, expecting him to bounce back from his first loss. He notes Amil's relentless pressure and durability, while Jamall Emmers fades as fights progress. He predicts Amil will take Emmers' best shots early and then take over, possibly finishing him. He also mentions Amil's personal tragedies before his last fight.

The host notes that Emmers has often fumbled the bag and expects him to do so again. If Amil survives the early striking and speed advantage of Emmers, he should grind him out and either get a late finish or win on the scorecards.

Paul agrees, noting Emmers' tendency to fade and Amil's pressure. He likes the Emmers round one props at plus 650.

The Guru picks Jamall Emmers to win by TKO. He believes Emmers's craftiness and reach advantage will be too much for Hyder Amil, who is coming off a KO loss. He expects Emmers to piece up Amil with kicks and straight shots, finishing him in round one or two.

Angelo picks Ricky Simon because of his non-stop wrestling pace and power in his hands. He believes even if Raoni Barcelos has early takedown defense, Simon's relentless pressure will eventually get takedowns. He notes that Barcelos is aging and that wrestlers are not spectacular off their backs.

Big Brady struggles with this pick, noting Simón has looked awful in recent fights and may be slowing down due to accumulated damage. He thinks Barcelos has better striking and both have questionable chins. He leans with the 38-year-old Barcelos to win by decision, but admits it's a sketchy pick.

Cody picks Barcelos, citing his takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and superior boxing volume. He thinks Simón's wrestling will be neutralized and Barcelos will outwork him over three rounds.

Lucrative James is confident in Ricky Simón, going against the market. He believes Simón's wrestling and cardio advantage will be key, as Barcelos ages and has shown a deteriorating chin and gas tank. He expects Simón to mix takedowns and land big overhands, possibly finishing Barcelos. He also notes Barcelos has been hurt in recent fights.

The host acknowledges Barcelos is the better striker on paper, but believes Simón's wrestling, athleticism, speed, and power will be decisive. He expects Simón to find a big shot and knock Barcelos out.

Paul sees it as a 50/50 fight but likes Barcelos at plus money. He thinks if Simón can't get takedowns, Barcelos's striking and experience will carry him.

The Guru picks Ricky Simón to win by first-round TKO. He believes Simón's well-rounded game and explosiveness will overwhelm the aging Barcelos, who relies on exploiting specific weaknesses. He notes Simón has no glaring holes in his grappling or pressure defense, unlike Barcelos's previous opponents.

Angelo picks Joselyne Edwards because she is the much better striker and can piece up Mayra Bueno Silva on the feet. He notes that Mayra is on a three-fight skid and may be desperate for takedowns, but Joselyne's takedown defense should hold up if she avoids naked kicks. He prefers Joselyne to box rather than kick to avoid getting taken down.

Big Brady is not high on Cavalcanti, noting her underwhelming wins and split decisions against lower-level opponents. He acknowledges Bueno Silva's dangerous guard but criticizes her refusal to wrestle offensively. He thinks Cavalcanti will pick apart Bueno Silva at range for 15 minutes, winning a decision, but notes Bueno Silva has a path if she takes the fight to the ground.

Cody picks Silva as a dog, citing her superior grappling and competition level. He thinks Cavalcanti's wins are over low-level opponents and that Silva can take her down and submit her.

Lucrative James confidently picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti. He notes her cleaner striking, volume, and defensive skills, while Mayra Bueno Silva is on a downslide and has bounced between weight classes. He acknowledges Silva's submission threat but believes Cavalcanti can avoid it and win a decision. He also mentions Silva's recent black belt but doubts it will change the outcome.

The host believes Cavalcanti's striking edge will allow her to pick Silva apart from distance, though Silva's aggression could make it close. Ultimately, Cavalcanti should land better shots and win on the scorecards.

Paul is torn, leaning pass. He notes Silva's inconsistency and Cavalcanti's lack of impressive wins, but can't back Cavalcanti at minus 260.

The Guru picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Mayra Bueno Silva. He cites Silva's recent losses and inability to bully opponents, while Cavalcanti has shown good striking and range management. He expects a competitive decision, with Cavalcanti outlanding Silva to a 29-28 win.

Angelo slightly leans Josh Hokit because he believes athleticism and early takedowns with ground-and-pound can overcome Max Gimenes' world-class jiu-jitsu. He is surprised by the heavy favorite odds (-425) for a UFC debutant with only six fights, and thinks the odds will tighten. He warns that if Hokit tries to control without striking, he could get swept or submitted.

Big Brady is not sold on Jimenez as an MMA fighter, noting he is primarily a grappler with poor wrestling and no striking. He believes Hokit should win easily due to his wrestling, cardio, and power. He predicts Hokit by first-round TKO, as Jimenez might roll for a leg and get pounded.

Cody picks Hokit, citing his wrestling, cardio, and athleticism. He thinks Gimenis will gas in the second round and Hokit will take over with chain wrestling.

Lucrative James picks Josh Hokit easily, noting he seems better everywhere. He admits he hasn't seen much tape on Max Gimenis but expects Hokit to finish him inside the first round. He plans to do more research later.

The host is high on Hokit, citing his grinding wrestling pace and high cardio as key advantages in the heavyweight division. He expects Hokit to make the fight look easy and eventually secure a second or third round TKO.

Paul picks Hokit, noting Gimenis's lack of MMA experience and poor striking defense. He thinks Hokit's wrestling will be too much.

The Guru picks Josh Hokit to win by second-round TKO. He expects Hokit's volume wrestling and pressure to overwhelm Max Gimenis after a feeling-out first round. He notes Gimenis's jiu-jitsu threat but believes Hokit's chain wrestling will neutralize it. He predicts a ground-and-pound finish late in round two.

Angelo is confident in Tecia Pennington as an underdog, calling her the best underdog on the card. He highlights her speed, durability, well-roundedness, and high fight IQ. He disagrees with the nearly 2-to-1 odds favoring Denise Gomes, arguing that Tecia is the more technical and experienced fighter. He plans to hammer a plus 3.5 bet on Tecia.

Big Brady favors Gomes due to her youth, power, and grappling upside, though he thinks the line might be a bit wide. He acknowledges Pennington is still fighting at a high level, citing her close decision against champion Mackenzie Dern. He expects a competitive fight that goes to a close decision, with Gomes landing the bigger shots and getting her hand raised.

Cody picks Pennington as a dog, citing her experience and ability to outwork opponents. He thinks Gomes' wrestling is not good enough to keep Pennington down, and Pennington can win a close decision.

Lucrative James leans towards Denise Gomes, citing her youth, power, and physicality. He acknowledges Tecia Pennington's experience and volume but believes Gomes' finishing upside and strength will be decisive. He is not confident due to Pennington's high level and the price, but picks Gomes for the win.

The host is a bit unsure but leans toward Gomes due to her power, expecting her to land more significant strikes. Pennington may have volume and takedown attempts, but Gomes should nullify most of that and win on the scorecards.

Paul picks Pennington, expecting a razor-thin split decision. He notes Pennington's takedown defense and striking volume, and thinks Gomes' wrestling is overrated.

The Guru picks Denise Gomes over Tecia Pennington. He believes Gomes will win via big moments and knockdowns, even if Pennington outlands her. He cites Pennington's tendency to lose close decisions due to lack of power, and Gomes's youth and size advantage. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Gomes.

Angelo picks Daniel Marcos because of his superior cardio and cleaner striking. He notes that Miles Johns will come out hot and win the first round, but will fade as the fight goes on, allowing Marcos to take over. He also mentions a potential bet on Miles Johns plus 3.5 rounds, as Johns is likely to win one round.

Big Brady sees this as a close fight, noting that Daniel Marcos has a nice record but he thought Marcos lost the Davey Grant fight. He mentions Miles Johns has a wrestling background and surprisingly good cardio lately, while Marcos has slowed down in past fights. He favors Marcos' distance striking but thinks Johns has more power and the fight goes to a split decision, leaning toward Johns due to the corrupt judges.

Cody picks Johns as a dog, citing his improved performance against Matsumoto and Marcos' inconsistency. He thinks Johns' wrestling and volume can earn him a decision.

Lucrative James does not provide a clear pick for this fight. He discusses Adrian Yanez vs Christian Quinones instead, which is not on the card. He mentions Miles Johns and Daniel Marcos only in passing, but does not give a prediction.

The host believes Marcos has a better all-around game and will pick Johns apart from distance, especially by chewing away at the lead leg. This should slow Johns down and allow Marcos to win on the scorecards in deep water.

Paul leans Johns but is passing due to uncertainty. He notes both fighters' inconsistency and the short-notice changes, but likes Johns at plus money.

The Guru picks Daniel Marcos over Miles Johns. He notes that Marcos has been competitive with top bantamweights like Davy Grant and Montel Jackson, while Johns is on a two-fight losing streak. He highlights Marcos's nasty knees up the middle as a key factor against the stationary Johns. He predicts a TKO finish, as Johns doesn't move enough to avoid Marcos's pressure.

Angelo picks Robert Valentin because he has seen him be tough and get after it, and he knows he can work in takedowns. However, he is not confident and advises against betting on this fight, calling it a mess. He notes that both fighters are not UFC level and it's a win-or-go-back-to-regional matchup.

Big Brady is not sold on Jackson McVey after his poor debut where he looked atrocious and got armbarred in the first round. He notes that Zachary Reese has powerful striking and a sneaky submission game, though his chin and cardio are questionable. Despite not wanting to lay -300, he believes Reese should finish McVey easily, predicting a first-round submission.

Lucrative James picks Robert Valentine, but the matchup is actually Jackson McVey vs Zachary Reese. He mistakenly refers to Valentine as the opponent. He notes Valentine's superior grappling and predicts an inside-the-distance win, likely by submission. He criticizes McVey's UFC debut loss via armbar and questions his level.