Raoni Barcelos

Angelo leans on Montel Jackson, noting his power and wrestling background. He points out that Jackson's three UFC losses came when he couldn't defend takedowns, but believes Raoni Barcelos's age may prevent him from getting takedowns. He worries that Jackson might be gunshy due to wrestling concerns, which could allow Barcelos to win with empty takedowns. He says Montel should win but the fight could get weird.

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson but with hesitation. He acknowledges Jackson's talent and power but notes his inconsistency and lack of effort in some fights. He believes if Jackson shows up, he can knock out Barcelos, who is older and has a questionable chin. However, he warns that Jackson could lose if he doesn't try.

The host notes Jackson has many physical advantages but is mentally inconsistent, often passive and inactive. Barcelos is mentally strong, high output, and aggressive. He believes Barcelos has a good chance if Jackson is not at his best. He prefers Barcelos +3.5 because Jackson lacks killer instinct and often goes to decision, and Barcelos should win at least one round.

James picks Barcelos as an underdog, believing his veteran skills and pocket boxing will overcome Jackson's power. He thinks Barcelos can follow the blueprint from Figueiredo's win over Jackson, using takedowns and pressure to win a decision or late submission.

Angelo picks Ricky Simon because of his non-stop wrestling pace and power in his hands. He believes even if Raoni Barcelos has early takedown defense, Simon's relentless pressure will eventually get takedowns. He notes that Barcelos is aging and that wrestlers are not spectacular off their backs.

Big Brady struggles with this pick, noting Simón has looked awful in recent fights and may be slowing down due to accumulated damage. He thinks Barcelos has better striking and both have questionable chins. He leans with the 38-year-old Barcelos to win by decision, but admits it's a sketchy pick.

Cody picks Barcelos, citing his takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and superior boxing volume. He thinks Simón's wrestling will be neutralized and Barcelos will outwork him over three rounds.

Lucrative James is confident in Ricky Simón, going against the market. He believes Simón's wrestling and cardio advantage will be key, as Barcelos ages and has shown a deteriorating chin and gas tank. He expects Simón to mix takedowns and land big overhands, possibly finishing Barcelos. He also notes Barcelos has been hurt in recent fights.

The host acknowledges Barcelos is the better striker on paper, but believes Simón's wrestling, athleticism, speed, and power will be decisive. He expects Simón to find a big shot and knock Barcelos out.

Paul sees it as a 50/50 fight but likes Barcelos at plus money. He thinks if Simón can't get takedowns, Barcelos's striking and experience will carry him.

Angelo leans Cody because he is faster and has power, while Raoni lacks power in his hands. He warns that Cody must avoid getting taken down. He is not confident enough to bet on Cody given his recent struggles.

Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt by second-round knockout. He believes Garbrandt's takedown defense is elite (80%) and that he can keep the fight standing. He notes Barcelos is 38 with a questionable chin, and Garbrandt has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges multiple outcomes but leans toward a knockout.

Connor picks Barcelos, emphasizing that Garbrandt's wrestling has declined and that Barcelos's chain wrestling and takedown variety will be a major threat. He notes that Garbrandt's tunnel vision when he feels confident often leads to him getting taken down, as seen against Figueiredo. Connor also points out that Barcelos is 38 and chinny, so Garbrandt could still knock him out, but Barcelos's wrestling should be the deciding factor.

Despite public love for Barcelos after his upset win, Garbrandt has good takedown defense and superior striking. He will chip away at Barcelos and win a decision.

The Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, stating he is 'done with Cody Garbrandt.' He criticizes Garbrandt's fundamental flaws in striking and grappling, such as giving up his back and poor low kicks. He notes Barcelos has faced tough competition and fraud-checked Payton Talbott. He expects Barcelos to win by decision or TKO in the second round.

Angelo is extremely confident in Payton Talbott, citing his youth, speed, and striking ability. He believes the age and speed gap will be decisive and expects Talbott to potentially knock out Barcelos. He warns against betting Talbott at -1200, calling it too risky.

Cody picks Payton Talbott confidently, viewing him as a rising star. He notes Talbott's exceptional striking, athleticism, and rapidly improving takedown defense. Cody points out that Barcelos is 37 and has slowed down, with recent losses showing regression in wrestling, striking defense, and reflexes. He believes Talbott's speed and power will be too much, and that Barcelos's best days are behind him. Cody expects Talbott to win dominantly, possibly by knockout.

Daniel picks Talbott by knockout, citing his volume, power, and swag. He notes that Barcelos is almost 40 and has taken too much damage in recent fights. Daniel mentions that Barcelos is a savvy vet but Talbott is quicker, younger, and more durable. He says he cannot lay -1200 but expects Talbott to win by knockout.

The host is a huge Barcelos fan but acknowledges Talbott is a much slicker striker who uses speed and power to land big shots. He expects Talbott to put Barcelos away in under one and a half rounds.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Talbott. He notes that Talbott looks like he's in the Matrix and is a new-generation fighter. Paul believes Barcelos is too slow and past his prime, and that Talbott's speed and striking will be decisive. He also mentions that Barcelos has been taken down and outworked by younger fighters recently. Paul is not stepping in front of the Talbott train.

Angelo picks Quiñonez as the underdog, citing Barcelos' age (36) and recent skid. He notes that Barcelos has lost to fighters he shouldn't have and that lower weight classes age out faster. He believes Quiñonez is younger, fresher, and more durable.

Big Brady picks Cristian Quiñonez to win by first-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes that if this fight were three years ago, he would max bet Barcelos, but Barcelos is now 36, looks older, and has durability and cardio issues. Quiñonez has power and is nine years younger, and Barcelos has been finished multiple times. However, both fighters have questionable durability, and Brady expects someone to get finished.

Cody picks Barcelos, citing his superior boxing, wrestling, and experience. He notes Quiñonez has been finished in all his losses, has poor takedown defense, and gives up his back. Barcelos is a seven-time Brazilian national wrestling team member and has sharp counter-punching. He thinks Barcelos can make mistakes and still win.

The host believes Quiñonez's volume striking and footwork from distance will give Barcelos trouble. He notes Quiñonez's speed advantage and output, and his ability to stay away from pocket exchanges where Barcelos is dangerous. He also mentions Quiñonez's takedown defense and get-ups, and cautions that he must not get overzealous like in the Kong fight. He predicts a decision victory for Quiñonez.

Angelo picks Raoni Barcelos despite his recent skid, believing he is the better fighter everywhere except age and youth. He notes Barcelos has superior wrestling, technical striking, and BJJ. He warns that Kyler Phillips is sloppy and lacks one-punch power, so Barcelos should control the fight with wrestling. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Barcelos at +143 but says this is his last time betting on him and advises not to tail blindly.

Big Brady is very uncertain. He notes Barcelos has elite takedown defense, so Phillips' wrestling won't work. However, Barcelos is 36, on short notice, coming off a brutal KO loss, and has declined. Phillips is coming off a PED suspension. He thinks it will be a close striking match and picks Barcelos by split decision with little confidence, saying he'd rather be on the dog money.

Cody picks Barcelos as a plus-money underdog, citing his well-rounded skills, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Phillips' tendency to fade in later rounds and his questionable takedown defense. He believes Barcelos can survive the first round and take over as Phillips gasses. He also suggests a live bet on Barcelos after the first round.

Daniel Levi picks Raoni Barcelos, though he admits he has no strong read. He likes Barcelos' well-rounded skills (black belt in BJJ, Brazilian wrestling team, good striking) but is concerned about his age (36). Levi notes that Phillips is explosive but slows down badly in fights, and that Barcelos' output and durability could be factors. He is not worried about the Umar Nurmagomedov knockout, crediting Umar's skill. Levi sees this as a tough fight and prefers the dog price on Barcelos.

James thinks Barcelos is past his prime, citing recent wobbles and a knockout loss to someone with no KOs. He believes Phillips can knock him out and that the minus 200 line is about right. He also mentions Phillips could get takedowns to consolidate rounds.

Phillips has a style that gives Barcelos problems: he moves a lot, uses distance striking and kicks, and stays out of range. Barcelos has a better gas tank and could push into deep waters, but it will be too little too late. The fight is closer than the odds suggest, but Barcelos's time has passed and Phillips is a bad stylistic matchup. I'd rather pass on this matchup entirely.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Phillips' cardio issues and Barcelos' wrestling advantage. He mentions that Phillips has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Barcelos is the toughest opponent he has faced. He sees value in the plus money.

Angelo picks Umar but criticizes the -950 odds as absurd. He believes Umar's relentless wrestling will eventually get takedowns despite Barcelos' excellent takedown defense. He thinks Barcelos is more well-rounded and dangerous, but Umar's pressure wins a decision. He advises not betting at these odds.

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently despite the steep odds, calling Barcelos 'not a bum' but noting signs of decline at 35. He believes Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be the toughest test Barcelos has faced, and that he can get the fight to the mat and control him. He expects Nurmagomedov to grind out a decision, as Barcelos has good submission defense and durability. He also notes that Nurmagomedov has competitive striking and flashy kicks, but the grappling advantage should be decisive.

Cody picks Umar but acknowledges Barcelos' takedown defense and wrestling credentials. He thinks Umar will get takedowns and win a decision, and likes the 'Umar by decision' prop at -200. He also mentions Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Connor picks Barcelos because he has excellent takedown defense (95% in the UFC) and is a good striker with power and speed. He notes that Nurmagomedov's wrestling may not be as effective against Barcelos, and that Nurmagomedov's striking lacks depth and consistency. Connor also points out that Barcelos has shown he can compete with wrestlers and that Nurmagomedov hasn't faced significant pushback. He acknowledges the coaching change for Nurmagomedov as a potential factor.

Jacob picks Umar but calls the line disrespectful to Barcelos. He notes Barcelos' elite takedown defense and striking, but thinks Umar's chain wrestling will eventually win. He warns that if Umar's first takedown is stuffed, bettors should sweat. He has a separate bet on the fight for premium members.

Paul is confident in Umar, calling him the future champion. He notes Umar's striking accuracy and wrestling pedigree, and believes he will win easily. He already parlayed Umar with Ige and Rębecki at -500. He also likes Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Cody picks Trevin Jones by knockout, noting that Jones hits hard and Barcelos has been taking a lot of damage recently. He expects Barcelos to be winning the minutes until he gets caught. He is tempted by the +575 knockout prop but is not as confident as his Trinaldo bet. He suggests playing the moneyline instead of the prop to avoid a decision loss.

Paul picks Raoni Barcelos by unanimous decision, expecting him to outwork Trevin Jones with higher output, better footwork, and superior hand combinations. He acknowledges Barcelos has slowed down slightly but believes his technical boxing and well-rounded game will be enough to win rounds. He notes Jones has power but low volume, and Barcelos has never been knocked down, so a decision is likely.

Angelo picks Raoni Barcelos, praising his well-rounded skills including power, speed, striking, wrestling, and BJJ. He expects Barcelos to have a tough time on the feet but then move to grappling where he has a solid advantage. He likes the under on rounds as a prop bet, predicting a finish.

Big Brady picks Raoni Barcelos to win by decision, citing Barcelos being on another level compared to Henry. He notes Henry's takedown defense and get-up game are not great, and Barcelos has a black belt in BJJ to control Henry on the ground. He expects Barcelos to win the first two rounds comfortably and notes Henry has never been finished in 26 fights, so decision is likely. The only concern is Barcelos' gas tank, but he still sees Barcelos winning easily.

Cody picks Raoni Barcelos, stating that Barcelos is better than Victor Henry in every facet: boxing, wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and cardio. He notes that Barcelos has a wrestling background and is a BJJ black belt. However, Cody warns that Barcelos sometimes fights bad game plans, as seen in his last fight. He considers Barcelos a second-ticket play rather than a top-ticket due to the high price.

Daniel Levi confidently picks Raoni Barcelos to win. He praises Barcelos' boxing and jiu-jitsu, calling him a black belt under a red belt. Levi believes Barcelos is undefeated in the UFC (disputing the loss to Timur Valiev) and that Victor Henry, while tough and never finished, is outmatched. He expects Barcelos to dominate everywhere and predicts a first-round submission or knockout. Levi criticizes Barcelos' management for taking risky fights with little reward.

The host believes Barcelos is the better fighter in all areas: striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He thinks Henry's only path to victory is if Barcelos has a poor performance like he did against Timur Valiev. He expects Barcelos to win by decision but also likes the submission prop at +455. He plans to use Barcelos in parlays.

Paul picks Raoni Barcelos, agreeing with Cody that Barcelos is the superior fighter. He notes that the line has moved from -375 to -500, indicating public support. Paul believes Barcelos should win but acknowledges the high price makes it less attractive for a large bet.

Angelo picks Timur Valiev, calling him the best underdog on the card. He believes the line is too wide and that Valiev is very good. He has a moneyline bet and a prop bet on Valiev. He notes that Valiev will definitely win a round, so the +3.5 bet is a good play.

Big Brady picks Raoni Barcelos to win by decision, calling him the real deal with no holes in his game except maybe cardio. He notes Barcelos's excellent striking defense (67%), positive strike differential, and strong wrestling/ground game. He thinks Barcelos will mix in takedowns and control the fight, while Valiev is a good striker but has been taken down before. He expects a high-level fight but Barcelos to win the first two rounds and get a decision.

Cody is a big fan of Barcelos, calling him a 'created character' with elite striking, wrestling, BJJ, cardio, and chin. He criticizes the UFC for not giving Barcelos ranked opponents. He acknowledges Valiev's early pressure and unorthodox strikes but believes Barcelos's durability, cardio, and ring IQ will allow him to take over after the first round. He suggests live betting after the first round if Valiev looks competitive.

Jacob picks Timur Valiev, stating he was going to pick the underdog regardless because he thinks it's an even matchup. He notes Barcelos' grappling ability but believes Valiev's striking is good enough to win. Jacob has Valiev in his lineup.

Barcelos is a notch ahead in striking, especially with his Muay Thai. He throws great combinations ending with leg kicks, while Valiev is more explosive in bursts. Barcelos' volume and impactful shots will outwork Valiev's wild spinning attacks. Both have good grappling, so the fight stays standing, and Barcelos' style is more efficient. The line is too wide but Barcelos still wins.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Barcelos. He notes Barcelos's well-rounded skills and that Valiev fades after the first round. He thinks Barcelos's durability and pace will be too much for Valiev, who has lost as a big favorite before. Paul also mentions that Barcelos has been matched tough but always finds a way.

The host is high on Barcelos, calling him a near-complete MMA fighter with diverse skills. He expects Barcelos to use his muay thai and takedowns to overwhelm Taha, who has shown vulnerability to wrestlers. He predicts a second or third round submission, noting Barcelos' jiu-jitsu and finishing ability. He considers Barcelos a solid parlay piece due to the high price.