Career Averages - Tecia Pennington
Career Averages - Denise Gomes
Tecia Pennington - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 58 of 125 | 46% | 73 of 144 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 53 of 138 | 38% | 75 of 169 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 3:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 34 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 26 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 22 of 58 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 27 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 3:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 58 of 125 | 46% | 15 of 56 | 9 of 19 | 34 of 50 | 58 of 118 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 53 of 138 | 38% | 19 of 86 | 15 of 29 | 19 of 23 | 48 of 129 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 22 of 51 | 43% | 7 of 21 | 4 of 12 | 11 of 18 | 22 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 25 of 61 | 40% | 11 of 37 | 6 of 14 | 8 of 10 | 24 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 27 of 56 | 48% | 6 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 24 | 27 of 52 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 19 of 54 | 35% | 5 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 19 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 9 of 18 | 50% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 9 of 23 | 39% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo is confident in Tecia Pennington as an underdog, calling her the best underdog on the card. He highlights her speed, durability, well-roundedness, and high fight IQ. He disagrees with the nearly 2-to-1 odds favoring Denise Gomes, arguing that Tecia is the more technical and experienced fighter. He plans to hammer a plus 3.5 bet on Tecia.
Big Brady favors Gomes due to her youth, power, and grappling upside, though he thinks the line might be a bit wide. He acknowledges Pennington is still fighting at a high level, citing her close decision against champion Mackenzie Dern. He expects a competitive fight that goes to a close decision, with Gomes landing the bigger shots and getting her hand raised.
Cody picks Pennington as a dog, citing her experience and ability to outwork opponents. He thinks Gomes' wrestling is not good enough to keep Pennington down, and Pennington can win a close decision.
Lucrative James leans towards Denise Gomes, citing her youth, power, and physicality. He acknowledges Tecia Pennington's experience and volume but believes Gomes' finishing upside and strength will be decisive. He is not confident due to Pennington's high level and the price, but picks Gomes for the win.
The host is a bit unsure but leans toward Gomes due to her power, expecting her to land more significant strikes. Pennington may have volume and takedown attempts, but Gomes should nullify most of that and win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Pennington, expecting a razor-thin split decision. He notes Pennington's takedown defense and striking volume, and thinks Gomes' wrestling is overrated.
The Guru picks Denise Gomes over Tecia Pennington. He believes Gomes will win via big moments and knockdowns, even if Pennington outlands her. He cites Pennington's tendency to lose close decisions due to lack of power, and Gomes's youth and size advantage. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Gomes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 63 of 127 | 49% | 78 of 149 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 40 of 110 | 36% | 46 of 118 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 30 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 16 of 51 | 31% | 19 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 19 of 28 | 67% | 27 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 4 of 20 | 20% | 7 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 63 of 127 | 49% | 34 of 82 | 10 of 17 | 19 of 28 | 56 of 109 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 40 of 110 | 36% | 23 of 85 | 5 of 9 | 12 of 16 | 33 of 95 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 26 of 61 | 42% | 18 of 42 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 13 | 21 of 51 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 16 of 51 | 31% | 11 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 43 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 18 of 38 | 47% | 8 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 17 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 20 of 39 | 51% | 11 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 19 of 28 | 67% | 8 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 7 | 18 of 23 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 4 of 20 | 20% | 1 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, stating she should win all day long. He notes that Pennington is good everywhere, with good boxing, solid grappling, and insane cardio. He acknowledges that the line at -400 is a little sketchy but believes she wins more often than not. He suggests the over might be more affordable and advises keeping an eye on the over line.
Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington, noting that Luana Pinheiro fades after the 7.5-minute mark. He argues Pennington's losses are to elite fighters in close decisions, and a loss to Pinheiro would be her worst ever. He expects Pennington to win by decision.
The host is surprised Pennington is such a big favorite, believing Pinheiro matches her in physicality and may be the better striker in terms of landing significant damage. He sees Pinheiro as very live to pull off the upset and picks her to win by decision. However, the pick is not made with high confidence, as he acknowledges the line is surprising.
The Guru picks Tecia Pennington, calling her underrated and strong for the division. He believes she scrambles well and won't be outgrappled by Luana Pinheiro. He notes Pennington was robbed in past decisions against Mackenzie Dern and Tabatha Ricci, and thinks she is better overall. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 39 of 123 | 31% | 116 of 215 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 80 of 150 | 53% | 94 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 77 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 17 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 22 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 36 of 57 | 63% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 39 of 123 | 31% | 30 of 112 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 110 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 10 |
| Carla Esparza | 80 of 150 | 53% | 28 of 92 | 11 of 12 | 41 of 46 | 75 of 142 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 6 of 26 | 23% | 4 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 13 of 38 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 12 of 43 | 27% | 6 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 31 of 55 | 56% | 14 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 13 | 31 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 21 of 54 | 38% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Carla Esparza | 36 of 57 | 63% | 6 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 30 | 34 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.
Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.
Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.
The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.
Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.
Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 54 of 143 | 37% | 94 of 186 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 5:15 |
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 80 of 219 | 36% | 92 of 231 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 25 of 76 | 32% | 26 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 42 of 107 | 39% | 47 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 32 of 50 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 23 of 65 | 35% | 24 of 66 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 54 of 143 | 37% | 32 of 105 | 9 of 19 | 13 of 19 | 48 of 135 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Tecia Pennington | 80 of 219 | 36% | 64 of 194 | 6 of 14 | 10 of 11 | 70 of 193 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabatha Ricci | 25 of 76 | 32% | 12 of 52 | 5 of 11 | 8 of 13 | 23 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tecia Pennington | 42 of 107 | 39% | 32 of 93 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 36 of 94 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tabatha Ricci | 10 of 27 | 37% | 7 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tecia Pennington | 15 of 47 | 31% | 11 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 39 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tabatha Ricci | 19 of 40 | 47% | 13 of 31 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tecia Pennington | 23 of 65 | 35% | 21 of 60 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 60 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tabatha Ricci because he doubts Tecia Pennington will be the same fighter after having a baby and a two-year layoff. He notes Ricci's relentless takedowns and top pressure, and that she has beaten good grapplers. He acknowledges Pennington's well-rounded skills but thinks the layoff and motherhood are too big a question mark.
Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington (Torres) for the upset, despite acknowledging red flags like her two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Torres has the better striking and volume, and that even if Ricci takes her down, Torres has a good get-up game and is physically strong. He notes Ricci's path to victory is getting takedowns, but she failed to do so in losses to Fiorot and Lupi. He expects the fight to primarily take place standing, favoring Torres.
Cody picks Pennington but is leaning, not confident. He notes that Pennington (formerly Torres) has a history of high volume and has fought the best, but she is coming off a layoff and a loss. He thinks her volume and takedown defense will be key, and she can outwork Ricci on the feet. However, he acknowledges it's a coin flip and wishes for better plus money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tabatha Ricci, but hesitantly. He notes that Tecia Pennington is the better fighter on her best day, but she is coming off a pregnancy, which often leads to a drop in performance. He also questions Ricci's level but thinks the pregnancy factor gives Ricci the edge. He acknowledges it could go either way.
The host picks Pennington due to her takedown defense and striking speed, which should keep the fight upright and cause Ricci problems. He notes the long layoff after childbirth as a concern but thinks the stylistic matchup favors her. He would only bet if the line moves to +150, indicating a lean rather than a confident play.
Paul picks Pennington, citing her volume and experience. He notes that Ricci's striking is stiff and she relies on takedowns, but Pennington has good takedown defense. Paul thinks Pennington can outwork Ricci in a competitive decision. However, he is not confident and calls it a coin flip.
The MMA Guru picks Tecia Pennington (formerly Torres) as an underdog over Tabatha Ricci. He criticizes Ricci's standup as 'atrocious' and notes that Ricci only wins when she gets takedowns, which Pennington's wrestling background should prevent. He highlights Pennington's ability to avoid being held down and her superior striking, predicting a clear decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 50 of 156 | 32% | 58 of 164 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 76 of 124 | 61% | 78 of 126 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 28 of 80 | 35% | 28 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 35 of 62 | 56% | 37 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 3 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 20 of 63 | 31% | 22 of 65 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 39 of 57 | 68% | 39 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 50 of 156 | 32% | 42 of 147 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 46 of 152 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Tecia Pennington | 76 of 124 | 61% | 19 of 61 | 25 of 30 | 32 of 33 | 75 of 122 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mackenzie Dern | 28 of 80 | 35% | 24 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 78 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tecia Pennington | 35 of 62 | 56% | 6 of 31 | 15 of 17 | 14 of 14 | 35 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mackenzie Dern | 2 of 13 | 15% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Tecia Pennington | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mackenzie Dern | 20 of 63 | 31% | 16 of 58 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tecia Pennington | 39 of 57 | 68% | 12 of 27 | 10 of 12 | 17 of 18 | 38 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo confidently picks Tecia Torres (Pennington). He criticizes Dern's poor takedown accuracy (10%) and overconfidence in striking. He believes Torres' volume, boxing, and cardio will keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Torres can avoid submissions. He plans to bet on Torres.
Big Brady picks Tecia Torres to win by decision. He sees the fight as a coin flip: if Dern gets it to the mat, she submits Torres; if Torres stuffs takedowns, she outstrikes Dern. Torres has better striking and has been focusing on strength and conditioning. Dern has poor takedown accuracy (10%). Brady has zero confidence and won't bet it.
Cody leans Torres but is not fully confident. He acknowledges Dern's submission threat but thinks Torres' speed and volume will be key. Cody notes Dern's takedown struggles and that Torres has been taken down before, but believes the big cage favors Torres. He considers Dern by submission at +250 as a possible path but thinks Torres wins by decision more often.
Levi acknowledges Tecia Torres's volume and striking advantage, but believes Dern's elite jiu-jitsu is a step above the competition. He thinks Dern will eventually get a hold of Torres and take the fight to the mat, possibly finishing by submission. He is not betting this fight because Torres could avoid takedowns and win a decision, but he picks Dern.
I think Torres is the better fighter with superior speed, combinations, and takedown defense. Dern has poor takedown accuracy (3 of 28 in UFC) and Torres will keep the fight standing. Torres will get in and out with strikes and win a decision. I also like Torres by TKO at +600 as a sprinkle.
Paul likes Torres at even money, citing her far better striking, speed, and experience. He notes Dern's takedowns are a mess and that Torres has only lost to the best in the division. Paul thinks Torres boxes Dern up, staying in and out, and that Dern's only path is a submission, which is unlikely. He expects Torres to win by decision, which is plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Tecia Torres (Tecia Pennington) as an underdog, citing her wrestling and speed. He expects her to stuff takedowns and piece up Dern on the feet, leading to a corner stoppage in the second round. He notes Dern's poor striking and only recently starting hard sparring.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 144 of 298 | 48% | 166 of 322 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 96 of 188 | 51% | 99 of 191 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 43 of 94 | 45% | 51 of 102 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 25 of 56 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 51 of 99 | 51% | 55 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 30 of 64 | 46% | 31 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 50 of 105 | 47% | 60 of 116 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 41 of 68 | 60% | 43 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 144 of 298 | 48% | 80 of 217 | 41 of 52 | 23 of 29 | 127 of 274 | 16 of 22 | 1 of 2 |
| Angela Hill | 96 of 188 | 51% | 64 of 141 | 29 of 41 | 3 of 6 | 73 of 160 | 22 of 26 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 43 of 94 | 45% | 20 of 63 | 18 of 22 | 5 of 9 | 40 of 90 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 25 of 56 | 44% | 17 of 44 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 20 of 50 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 51 of 99 | 51% | 29 of 73 | 13 of 17 | 9 of 9 | 43 of 89 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 1 |
| Angela Hill | 30 of 64 | 46% | 16 of 43 | 12 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 24 of 54 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 50 of 105 | 47% | 31 of 81 | 10 of 13 | 9 of 11 | 44 of 95 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
| Angela Hill | 41 of 68 | 60% | 31 of 54 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 56 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Torres, citing her high volume, good grappling, and that she has only lost to champions. He notes that Hill has improved but still struggled against Ashley Yoder, while Torres is a much higher level. He mentions he bet Torres at -132 and expects her to win a decision, possibly mixing in grappling as she did in the first fight.
Big Brady thinks this rematch will look similar to the first fight, with Torres mixing in takedowns and controlling Hill on the ground. He notes Hill's takedown defense has improved but she was still taken down by Ashley Yoder. He predicts Torres will win a decision by using takedowns and clinch control.
Cody picks Torres, arguing she has looked like a different fighter in her last two outings with increased confidence and output. He believes Torres has the wrestling advantage and will mix in takedowns to secure a close decision. He notes Angela Hill is a tough gatekeeper but lacks power and strength.
Daniel Levi picks Tecia Pennington via decision, citing her better mindset, skill set, and ability to win rounds. He criticizes Angela Hill for not accepting responsibility for her losses and for accusing Pennington of steroid use without evidence. He believes Pennington is more realistic and has a win over Hill already. He expects a close fight but favors Pennington's consistency and judge-friendly style.
Hill has polished her game and should have better striking and movement. Torres will likely grapple, but Hill has improved takedown defense and should get back to her feet. The fight will likely be close and go to decision, but Hill is the underdog and has a good chance. However, trusting Texas judges is risky, so it's a pass for betting.
Paul leans towards Torres, noting her recent confidence and improved output. He thinks Torres is the better athlete and has a more well-rounded game, but acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way. He mentions the over is heavily juiced and expects a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Tecia Torres over Angela Hill. He notes Torres' improved striking, especially her kicks, and her dominant win over Sam Hughes. He believes Torres' speed and output will outwork Hill, who is older (36). He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision for Torres.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 52 of 103 | 50% | 52 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 26 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 52 of 103 | 50% | 52 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 26 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 52 of 103 | 50% | 27 of 71 | 13 of 17 | 12 of 15 | 50 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Hughes | 20 of 53 | 37% | 9 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 17 | 19 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 52 of 103 | 50% | 27 of 71 | 13 of 17 | 12 of 15 | 50 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Hughes | 20 of 53 | 37% | 9 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 17 | 19 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Tecia Torres (Pennington) to win by decision. He cites her massive speed and volume advantage, and notes that Hughes is a big step up in competition. He mentions Torres' recent win over Brianna Van Buren and her losses to top competition.
Daniel expects Tecia to roll, citing her recent impressive performance against Van Buren and her wins over top competition. He thinks Sam Hughes is taking a massive step up and will lose a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill, despite her two recent losses (which he believes were actually wins). He cites Hill's reach advantage, natural size, and hunger to bounce back. He expects a close split decision. He acknowledges Tecia Torres is good but leans toward Hill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 74 of 160 | 46% | 111 of 199 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Brianna Fortino | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 37 of 71 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 4:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 36 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Brianna Fortino | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 10 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 28 of 65 | 43% | 30 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Brianna Fortino | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 45 of 77 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Brianna Fortino | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 74 of 160 | 46% | 42 of 127 | 21 of 22 | 11 of 11 | 55 of 136 | 17 of 21 | 2 of 3 |
| Brianna Fortino | 34 of 68 | 50% | 9 of 40 | 21 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 51 | 16 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 12 of 29 | 41% | 6 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 20 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Brianna Fortino | 9 of 11 | 81% | 1 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 28 of 65 | 43% | 17 of 54 | 7 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 59 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Brianna Fortino | 11 of 27 | 40% | 3 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 34 of 66 | 51% | 19 of 50 | 9 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 26 of 57 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 3 |
| Brianna Fortino | 14 of 30 | 46% | 5 of 21 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Brianna Fortino (Van Buren) despite Tecia Pennington's superior competition, believing Fortino is better on the feet and can get takedowns. He thinks Fortino will land more strikes and win a decision. He notes that Pennington hasn't won in five fights and that Fortino's takedown ability will be key.
Daniel Levi picks Brianna Van Buren, calling her a future top-10 fighter. He highlights her relentless pressure, wrestling, and ability to exploit Tecia Torres' weaknesses: poor takedown defense and declining confidence. Levi believes Van Buren will dominate with takedowns and ground control, leading to a clear decision or late finish.
Torres has lost four in a row but to top competition. She is strong, athletic, and has great grappling. Van Buren is being pushed but Torres has the experience edge. Torres will get the win, though it's a hesitant pick.
Denise Gomes - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 58 of 125 | 46% | 73 of 144 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 53 of 138 | 38% | 75 of 169 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 | 1 | 3:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 34 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 26 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 22 of 58 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 27 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 3:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 58 of 125 | 46% | 15 of 56 | 9 of 19 | 34 of 50 | 58 of 118 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 53 of 138 | 38% | 19 of 86 | 15 of 29 | 19 of 23 | 48 of 129 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 22 of 51 | 43% | 7 of 21 | 4 of 12 | 11 of 18 | 22 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 25 of 61 | 40% | 11 of 37 | 6 of 14 | 8 of 10 | 24 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 27 of 56 | 48% | 6 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 24 | 27 of 52 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 19 of 54 | 35% | 5 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 19 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 9 of 18 | 50% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 9 of 23 | 39% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo is confident in Tecia Pennington as an underdog, calling her the best underdog on the card. He highlights her speed, durability, well-roundedness, and high fight IQ. He disagrees with the nearly 2-to-1 odds favoring Denise Gomes, arguing that Tecia is the more technical and experienced fighter. He plans to hammer a plus 3.5 bet on Tecia.
Big Brady favors Gomes due to her youth, power, and grappling upside, though he thinks the line might be a bit wide. He acknowledges Pennington is still fighting at a high level, citing her close decision against champion Mackenzie Dern. He expects a competitive fight that goes to a close decision, with Gomes landing the bigger shots and getting her hand raised.
Cody picks Pennington as a dog, citing her experience and ability to outwork opponents. He thinks Gomes' wrestling is not good enough to keep Pennington down, and Pennington can win a close decision.
Lucrative James leans towards Denise Gomes, citing her youth, power, and physicality. He acknowledges Tecia Pennington's experience and volume but believes Gomes' finishing upside and strength will be decisive. He is not confident due to Pennington's high level and the price, but picks Gomes for the win.
The host is a bit unsure but leans toward Gomes due to her power, expecting her to land more significant strikes. Pennington may have volume and takedown attempts, but Gomes should nullify most of that and win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Pennington, expecting a razor-thin split decision. He notes Pennington's takedown defense and striking volume, and thinks Gomes' wrestling is overrated.
The Guru picks Denise Gomes over Tecia Pennington. He believes Gomes will win via big moments and knockdowns, even if Pennington outlands her. He cites Pennington's tendency to lose close decisions due to lack of power, and Gomes's youth and size advantage. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Gomes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elise Reed | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 35 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Denise Gomes | 1 | 28 of 42 | 66% | 69 of 86 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elise Reed | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 33 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 15 of 22 | 68% | 55 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 | |
| 2 | Elise Reed | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Denise Gomes | 1 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elise Reed | 11 of 21 | 52% | 5 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 28 of 42 | 66% | 18 of 29 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 20 | 9 of 10 | 8 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elise Reed | 9 of 17 | 52% | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 15 of 22 | 68% | 8 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Elise Reed | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 13 of 20 | 65% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 12 |
Angelo picks Denise Gomes, acknowledging that the odds are wide but understanding why she is the favorite. He notes that Elise Reed is a gamer and can make it competitive, but Gomes is a very good fighter who can grapple and strike. He mentions that without Jacob in Reed's corner, there is concern about her getting held against the cage. He thinks Gomes will win if she moves forward and uses pressure.
Big Brady picks Denise Gomes, highlighting her power and ground-and-pound. He notes Elise Reed's huge hole in her ground game, with all four losses by finish. He predicts Gomes will hurt Reed on the feet or take her down and submit her in the second round.
The host is surprised by the wide line, noting Gomes is not a high-level grappler and doesn't often look to grapple, which has been Reed's issue. He thinks if it's a striking battle, Reed can be competitive with her taekwondo background. He leans with Gomes due to her physicality and clinch work, but says don't be surprised if Reed pulls off the upset. Official prediction is Gomes by decision.
The Guru picks Denise Gomes confidently, calling her a -575 favorite who 'hits like a man' and has decent grappling. He thinks Elise Reed is outmatched and will be finished, predicting a TKO in the first round. He criticizes the matchmaking as a sacrificial lamb for Reed.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 46 of 98 | 46% | 61 of 115 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 73 of 144 | 50% | 91 of 166 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 5:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 32 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:11 | |
| 2 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 21 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 28 of 52 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 3 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 28 of 63 | 44% | 31 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denise Gomes | 46 of 98 | 46% | 16 of 57 | 19 of 24 | 11 of 17 | 39 of 89 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 73 of 144 | 50% | 30 of 85 | 33 of 44 | 10 of 15 | 53 of 115 | 20 of 28 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denise Gomes | 7 of 16 | 43% | 0 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 22 of 36 | 61% | 8 of 17 | 12 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 12 of 25 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Denise Gomes | 13 of 31 | 41% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 23 of 45 | 51% | 9 of 24 | 9 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Denise Gomes | 26 of 51 | 50% | 11 of 33 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 28 of 63 | 44% | 13 of 44 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 23 of 54 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
Big Brady sees Gomes as much younger, more powerful, and with grappling upside. He believes she can win on the feet or via takedowns. Despite the -500 line, he thinks Gomes gets her hand raised, likely by decision.
Cody disagrees with Paul, arguing that Kowalkiewicz's wrestling is not good enough to exploit Gomes' weakness. He notes that even when opponents wrestle Gomes, she still lands significant strikes. Cody believes Gomes' youth, power, and speed will overwhelm the 39-year-old Kowalkiewicz, likely by decision or knockout.
Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, assuming Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's experience and grappling advantage will take over as Gomes fades. He notes the odds are too wide in favor of Gomes, who he considers not good and prone to mistakes.
Daniel Vreeland picks Denise Gomes due to her youth, physicality, and momentum, contrasting with Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and decline. He notes Kowalkiewicz's past success but believes Gomes' power and aggressive style will be too much. However, he has zero interest in betting at -500 odds.
Lucrative James picks Denise Gomes to win by knockout, citing her heavy power and Karolina's declining career trajectory. He believes Gomes will be too physical and that Kowalkiewicz won't be able to implement her game plan of volume and grappling. He expects a brutal knockout.
Gomes is expected to control the striking with her power and possibly get some grappling success to win on the scorecards, similar to how Yasmin Lucindo beat Kowalkiewicz.
Paul is considering the underdog Kowalkiewicz at +390, noting that Gomes has shown takedown defense issues. He thinks if Kowalkiewicz can replicate her performance against Syana Gomez Warez, she could make it competitive. Paul admits it's a sucker bet but is tempted by the price.
The Guru picks Denise Gomes, expecting a brutal assault. He notes Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and her scared reaction when hit. He believes Gomes is a big, physical fighter for the division and will get a TKO win.
Zane picks Gomes but is hesitant. He notes that Gomes has power and can knock out Kowalkiewicz early, but if she doesn't, she runs out of ideas and makes mistakes. He acknowledges Kowalkiewicz's grappling and backtake game could be a threat, but thinks Gomes' youth and power give her the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 27 of 66 | 5 of 26 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 6:36 |
| Eduarda Moura | 0 | 50 of 88 | 56% | 137 of 184 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 2 | 2:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Eduarda Moura | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 32 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:48 | |
| 2 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 9 of 12 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Eduarda Moura | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 69 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:20 | |
| 3 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Eduarda Moura | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 36 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denise Gomes | 18 of 47 | 38% | 12 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
| Eduarda Moura | 50 of 88 | 56% | 19 of 46 | 22 of 30 | 9 of 12 | 31 of 60 | 17 of 22 | 2 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denise Gomes | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Eduarda Moura | 7 of 16 | 43% | 1 of 7 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Denise Gomes | 5 of 7 | 71% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Eduarda Moura | 21 of 37 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 17 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 5 | |
| 3 | Denise Gomes | 9 of 29 | 31% | 7 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Eduarda Moura | 22 of 35 | 62% | 7 of 15 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 22 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Eduarda Moura, emphasizing her solid grappling and takedowns. He notes that she took down a national wrestling champion (Monsterrat Ruiz) three times, while Angela Hill took down Denise Gomes five times. He believes Eduarda's wrestling will be too much for Denise, who is primarily a striker. He thinks Eduarda will get takedowns and control the fight, possibly winning a decision or getting a finish.
Big Brady picks Eduarda Moura to win by second-round TKO. He notes that Moura is physically strong and can get the fight to the mat, where she has vicious ground and pound. He is concerned about Moura's chin being up in the air, but believes she can implement her will and finish Denise Gomes, who has shown poor takedown defense against Angela Hill and Loma Lookboonmee.
Cody picks Moura, noting that Gomes is undersized and has poor takedown defense. Moura is a weight bully with strong grappling and has dominated opponents on the ground. Cody believes Moura will take Gomes down and submit or ground-and-pound her. He sees this as a clear stylistic advantage.
Daniel picks Gomes for the upset, citing a market overcorrection and her striking advantage. He notes Moura must take Gomes down to win, as Gomes has lost when taken down repeatedly. He hopes Gomes can keep the fight standing and light Moura up.
Jacob picks Denise Gomes, disagreeing with Angelo. He argues that Eduarda Moura is a weight bully who will gas after the first round, as seen in her previous fights. He notes that Denise is tough, has power in her hands, and will pressure Eduarda. He predicts that after Eduarda's takedowns slow down in the second round, Denise will land a right hand and finish her. He also points out that Eduarda's standup is poor with her chin up.
Moura is a weight bully with strong top pressure and grappling, while Gomes has been grinded out by strikers in the past. Moura's height and reach advantage will help her take the fight to the ground and eventually finish via submission or TKO. Gomes' striking advantage won't matter if she can't keep it standing.
Paul agrees with Cody's reasoning but is hesitant to lay the minus 170 price in a women's strawweight fight. He acknowledges Moura's grappling advantage but notes that Gomes has knockout power. Paul thinks Moura is the play but might not bet it.
The Guru picks Moura because she is a touted undefeated prospect (10-0) with a strong grappling game, and Denise Gomes has shown weaknesses in grappling, recently losing a grappling match. He acknowledges Gomes has KO power but trusts Moura's grappling advantage to get a submission. He also notes Moura missed weight by 4 pounds, which he finds amusing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 0 | 76 of 120 | 63% | 96 of 153 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 1 | 8:03 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 62 of 133 | 46% | 111 of 203 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 23 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 2:42 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 23 of 32 | 71% | 48 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 0 | 37 of 53 | 69% | 42 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 46 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 31 of 55 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 6 of 30 | 20% | 17 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 76 of 120 | 63% | 37 of 76 | 37 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 40 of 68 | 33 of 44 | 3 of 8 |
| Denise Gomes | 62 of 133 | 46% | 29 of 91 | 25 of 33 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 97 | 27 of 35 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 16 of 26 | 61% | 7 of 16 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 9 of 13 | 2 of 4 |
| Denise Gomes | 23 of 32 | 71% | 12 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 13 | 13 of 18 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 37 of 53 | 69% | 17 of 32 | 18 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 36 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 33 of 71 | 46% | 14 of 47 | 13 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 21 of 58 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 23 of 41 | 56% | 13 of 28 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 12 of 14 | 1 of 4 |
| Denise Gomes | 6 of 30 | 20% | 3 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gomes (-125), Hill (+105)
Round 1
The final women’s bout, booked at strawweight like Moura-Ruiz, features two women who comfortably made weight. Storied veteran Hill (15-13, 10-13 UFC), who looks for UFC win no. 11, faces off against a woman in Gomes (8-2, 2-1 UFC) who is almost 15 years Hill’s junior. Youth versus experience will be on full display for the next 15 minutes or less, and referee Fernando Portella will be the arbiter of this encounter. There is no plan for a glove touch, and instead Gomes would rather throw hands and feet right out of the gate. Hill checks a calf kick and her forward momentum bowls the Brazilian over. Hill lands on top, but only for a few seconds until the Parana Vale Tudo fighter powers her way back to her feet. The two clinch up, and they pepper one another in the body with knees. Hill loads up on her knees to the breadbasket, and Gomes considers hitting a trip but ends up falling to her back. Hill muscles her down to her knees when Gomes looks for a way up, and Hill works to take the back and hangs on the younger woman. Gomes grabs the glove a few times to get out of the bad position, and Hill breaks away and tags her once on the way out. The two trade hands, and Gomes succeeds in tripping Hill and dumping her on her face. They both get back up, and Hill counters her with a throw of her own. They explode upright again, and Gomes loads up on power punches that ring Hill’s bell repeatedly. Hill leans on heavily to clinch and hold onto Gomes, thereby shutting down the swinging fists that smack her in the face. Hill drives her knees in the solar plexus again and again, until Gomes has had enough of this and pushes her off. Hill resets and pushes out a front kick, and Gomes swings at air when this meets her. Gomes scores a big right hand, and Hill backs off but is snagged and throws to the mat. Gomes latches onto Hill’s left arm for an armlock of some kind, and she considers a kimura or an armbar, as she sits on top in an awkward position. Gomes drives down several hammerfists, and before she can get the armbar, Hill slides out the side. Hill, now in the driver’s seat, gets blasted with a right hand from Gomes on her back. Hill toughs it out and elbows Gomes in the face, and Gomes forces her way back up at the bell to end the close, exciting round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 2
Hill keeps her guard up high when she comes out of her corner, as Gomes whips a head kick at her to lead off the round. Gomes is intercepted when looking for a big overhand right, and Hill ties her up for a second before pushing off. Hill snipes Gomes with a solid right hand, and Gomes grins at her. Hill works her with a second overhand right, and a third before Gomes lobs another kick at her. Hill takes the strikes of the Brazilian and fires back, and she leans away from a spinning kick from Gomes. The two trade hands, and then land low kicks at the same time. Hill ducks a strike and comes over the top with a left, and she connects with two punches to follow. Gomes loads up again with power, and it hits air as Hill is too quick to eat it flush. Gomes absorbs a right hand on the chin and tags Hill with an uppercut, leading Hill to tie her up in the clinch and shove her to the wall. Hill gets off an elbow, and Gomes lowers her hands and looks for hefty counters. Hill spins with an elbow that bangs into Gomes’ chin, and Gomes goes not bat an eye and continues advancing. Hill shoots for a takedown, and Gomes defends with a standing guillotine that makes Hill think twice about the attempt. Hill sneaks in a few clinch strikes before backing off, and she watches Gomes’ winging strikes blaze past her. Hill catches a kick and deposits Gomes to the floor, but Gomes get right back up and takes a deep breath. Hill scores a few punches, and Gomes crowds her and blasts her in the face with a fierce right hand. When Hill grabs hold of her, Gomes answers with a number of vertical, hacking elbows. Gomes overswings, and Hill snags her and looks to drag her down. When Gomes keeps her balance, Hill smacks her in the face with a knee. Hill turns the corner, and Gomes succeeds in fighting off the takedown but gets kneed in the dome twice more. The round ends as the two are stuck together.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 3
As if she thought she was down on the scorecards, Gomes charges out of her corner and busts the veteran in the chops with a number of wide punches. Hill fires back, and she blunts the momentum by clinching up the younger woman and tripping her with a body lock. Gomes drops to her knees, defending the strikes from the side, and Hill hangs on from behind. Before long, Gomes works her way back to her feet with the fence at her back, and Hill drags her down again. Hill stays on the Brazilian like a bad penny, never giving Gomes a moment to breathe and not allowing her to get anything off. Hill peppers Gomes with knees to the head, side and thigh, attacking any target she can find while Gomes is stuck without answers. This grinding approach is slowing Gomes down, and a knee to the belly takes a bit more of the wind out of her sails. Gomes manages to push off and keeps throwing hands, but one left hand allows Hill to duck it and secure a single-leg takedown. When Gomes attempts to scramble, Hill is one step ahead, whether trying to take the back or working Gomes with strikes to the side of the melon. Gomes defends but is totally out of her game, and a short elbow from “Overkill” opens a cut on the side of Gomes’ eye. Hill flattens Gomes out, but Gomes explodes with 15 seconds to go and gets back up through sheer aggression. Hill tags her with a jump knee, and the close contest concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)
The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Denise Gomes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Denise Gomes, citing the 15-year age gap and Hill's age. He notes Hill is durable and experienced, but Gomes is tough, comes forward, and has power. He placed a small half-unit bet on Gomes at -141. He cautions that if Gomes fights recklessly and gasses, Hill could win as an underdog.
Big Brady picks Angela Hill to win by decision but is hesitant. He notes Hill's experience and better competition, but worries about her age (38) and Gomes' power. He says Gomes is hittable but has real power for the division. He mentions that Hill just fought a five-round fight with Mackenzie Dern, so this is a step down in competition. He says he won't bet this fight.
Daniel Levi picks Denise Gomes, citing her rare one-punch knockout power in women's MMA and her aggressive style. He notes that Angela Hill, at 38, has slowed down and taken significant damage in recent fights, including a beating from Mackenzie Dern. Levi believes Gomes can hurt Hill on the feet and may even knock her out for the first time. He acknowledges Hill's experience and toughness, but sees Gomes' physicality and power as decisive factors. He is waiting for plus money on Gomes but leans toward her.
James sees this as a very close fight and is passing on betting. He believes Angela Hill is on a downward trajectory at 39 years old, gets hit often, and has been dropped in recent fights. He thinks Denise Gomes has power and could hurt Hill, but he is not sold on Gomes' overall game, describing her as uneducated on the feet. He notes that Hill has never been knocked out and could make it look easy if she can take Gomes' power, but he is not confident she can avoid getting clipped. He concludes it is a massive stay away.
Hill's volume striking style, speed, and footwork will allow her to stay out of danger and pick apart Gomes from distance. Gomes' wrestling is not good enough to hold Hill down for extended periods. Hill should be able to operate at distance and win a decision, making her a good underdog spot.
The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an underdog over Denise Gomes. He praises Hill's composure and durability, noting she is very hard to finish. He references Hill's win over Loma Lookboonmee on short notice in Australia as evidence of her toughness. The Guru believes if Gomes doesn't get an early finish, Hill will pull ahead in later rounds, predicting a close 29-28 decision. He also mentions he likes the underdog odds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yazmin Jauregui | 1 | 17 of 20 | 85% | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yazmin Jauregui | 1 | 17 of 20 | 85% | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denise Gomes | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yazmin Jauregui | 17 of 20 | 85% | 17 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denise Gomes | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yazmin Jauregui | 17 of 20 | 85% | 17 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 14 |
Angelo avoids this fight entirely, calling it a trap. He acknowledges Jauregui's striking talent but notes she was dropped in her last fight. Gomes is tough and comes forward, but takes time to get going. He thinks Jauregui should win if it stays on the feet, but recommends fading the female fighter who was just rocked. He makes no pick and advises others to avoid betting.
Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Jauregui is the much better striker, more defensively sound, and can also take the fight to the mat. He has concerns about Gomes' striking defense, as she blocks punches with her face and has been dropped multiple times. He expects a war but believes Jauregui will finish Gomes. He comments that the line at -400 is wild but thinks Jauregui is the better fighter.
Cody picks Jauregui, citing her volume and cardio advantage. He thinks Gomes is tough but lacks the wrestling to neutralize Jauregui's pressure. He expects Jauregui to pull away on the scorecards. He notes Gomes is live at plus money but doesn't see a clear path.
Connor picks Yazmin Jauregui because she is a potential future title contender with excellent pocket defense, balance, and combination punching. She stays compact, keeps a tight guard, and closes exchanges with a powerful left hook. Gomes is still raw and relies on pressure without consistent offense, and Jauregui's ability to absorb and adjust makes her the clear winner.
Daniel Levi picks Jauregui, highlighting her high output, Mexican heart, and improved physique. He notes that she was dropped in her last fight but got back up and showed durability. Levi respects Gomes for her win over Bruna Brasil but believes Jauregui has the higher upside and will be the longer fighter. He calls the fight a potential barnburner and picks Jauregui to win, though he is not interested in betting at minus-400.
James picks Yazmin Jauregui to win, likely by decision. He thinks Jauregui's understanding of range, footwork, and distance management are way better than Gomes'. He acknowledges Gomes hits hard and could drop Jauregui, but believes Jauregui is a level above and will school her on the feet. He considered playing the over but may not bet.
Jauregui is a more polished striker with good footwork and counter-striking. Gomes is aggressive but will struggle to close the distance against Jauregui's technical striking. Jauregui will set traps, land damage, and avoid trouble, winning by decision. The over 2.5 rounds is the favorite spot.
Paul takes Gomes as a value underdog at +350. He thinks the line is too wide and the fight is closer to 70-30. He notes both are prospects and Gomes is younger. He says he wouldn't recommend betting Jauregui at -400. He took a small shot on Gomes.
The MMA Guru picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by 29-28 decision. He considers her a rare talented female fighter, comparing her to Loopy Godinez who beat Gomes. He criticizes Gomes' inability to fight on the back foot, as seen in her win over Bruna Brasil, which he views as an exposure of Brasil rather than a testament to Gomes.
Zane picks Yazmin Jauregui because she is a very good action fighter with fast hands, tight technique, and a devastating left hook. She adjusts well under pressure and uses data from exchanges to build offense. Gomes improved in her last fight by throwing punches while pressuring, but Jauregui is a much higher level opponent who can handle reckless collisions and counter effectively.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 15 of 22 | 68% | 43 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Bruna Brasil | 1 | 54 of 93 | 58% | 94 of 133 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 29 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Bruna Brasil | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 58 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 | |
| 2 | Denise Gomes | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bruna Brasil | 1 | 31 of 53 | 58% | 36 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denise Gomes | 15 of 22 | 68% | 7 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Bruna Brasil | 54 of 93 | 58% | 28 of 58 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 27 | 21 of 47 | 10 of 12 | 23 of 34 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denise Gomes | 10 of 15 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Bruna Brasil | 23 of 40 | 57% | 12 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 10 | 15 of 30 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Denise Gomes | 5 of 7 | 71% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bruna Brasil | 31 of 53 | 58% | 16 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 17 | 6 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 34 |
Angelo picks Bruna Brasil as the better striker overall, noting her creativity and power. However, he is hesitant because of the risk of a UFC debut freeze-up, citing a similar situation at UFC 287. He expects Bruna to be the better fighter but is not placing a bet due to the uncertainty of debut jitters.
Big Brady picks Bruna Brasil to win by decision. He believes Brasil is the better striker and has solid takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He criticizes Denise Gomes' striking defense and overall skill, though acknowledges her toughness. He is not laying heavy chalk on Brasil but expects her to get the job done.
Cody notes Brasil's reach and length advantage, and thinks her striking from the outside will be key. He acknowledges Gomes' path to victory is to make it ugly and wrestle, but believes Brasil's takedown defense and strength will hold up.
Connor agrees, noting that Gomes is too low output and lacks urgency. He believes Brasil's kick-heavy offense and clinch work will create opportunities, and that Gomes' pressure is not backed by actual aggression.
Brasil's size, reach, and striking will keep Gomes at bay. Gomes is a brawler who struggles with range and can be reversed on the ground. Brasil's takedown defense and scrambling have improved. She should win by decision, using her reach to outpoint Gomes. The line may improve, but Brasil is the better fighter.
Paul bet Gomes earlier at +200 and thinks the line movement is accurate. He acknowledges Brasil's advantages but notes Gomes' toughness and ability to make it a dogfight. He's not confident but took the plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Bruna Brasil, impressed by her striking, especially her head kick KO on Contender Series. He notes her reach advantage and believes she can keep the fight at range and land heavy shots. He is not impressed by Gomes' UFC debut and thinks Brasil has more promise.
Zane picks Brasil because she has volume and clinch striking, while Gomes is low output and just walks forward without throwing much. He notes that Brasil's kick-heavy game and pressure will allow her to light up Gomes, who lacks urgency and has poor wrestling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loma Lookboonmee | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 45 of 66 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 3 | 2 | 5:31 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 48 of 67 | 71% | 87 of 115 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 1 | 7:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loma Lookboonmee | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1:32 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 22 of 30 | 73% | 22 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:07 | |
| 2 | Loma Lookboonmee | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 26 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 | |
| 3 | Loma Lookboonmee | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 22 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 2:41 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 39 of 51 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loma Lookboonmee | 19 of 34 | 55% | 13 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 25 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 48 of 67 | 71% | 31 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 23 | 8 of 9 | 26 of 35 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loma Lookboonmee | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 22 of 30 | 73% | 17 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 17 | |
| 2 | Loma Lookboonmee | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 16 of 20 | 80% | 7 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 5 | |
| 3 | Loma Lookboonmee | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 10 of 17 | 58% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 13 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Suphisara (-225), Gomes (+190)
Round 1
For the entirety of her young career, Thailand’s Suphisara (6-3, 4-2 UFC) has won two fights and then lost a third, but always bounced back from that defeat with two more victories. This pattern has continued into this strawweight scrap against UFC newcomer and Parana Vale Tudo – the training camp of women like Jessica Andrade and Karol Rosa – prospect Gomes (6-1, 0-0 UFC), and a win for the Thai would keep it intact. This likely fast-paced fight will receive oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and a touch of gloves comes before his nonsense-free eyes. Suphisara fires off a front kick, and the Brazilian answers immediately with a slapping leg kick. Suphisara responds in kind, and they mirror one another with their strikes. Suphisara counters with a clean elbow that opens a cut on the top of Gomes’ forehead, and her teep kick sends Gomes sprawling to the mat. Gomes climbs back up, and she spins with a wheel kick but is too close. With Suphisara closing in on her, she scores a right hand, and Gomes catches a subsequent kick. The Brazilian spins her opponent around and jams her into the fence. “Loma Lookboonmee” reverses position and takes her opponent down, where she climbs into mount in a hurry. The Thai slams down several vicious elbows until Gomes gives up her back, and Suphisara is hanging on in search of a choke of some sort. Suphisara flattens Gomes out, but Gomes is holding on tight with wrist control to stop anything from coming together. Gomes slithers out the back door, and Suphisara clings to a kimura until the Brazilian pops her head out. Gomes, in half guard, fishes for an arm-triangle choke in the blink of an eye. Gomes squeezes with her full body weight down, but she is not in the position that can get a tap. Suphisara answers the proverbial telephone to defend it, and as she does, Gomes jumps over to the side to lock it down. Gomes gives up on it to moves into mount, and she sets up an armbar and rolls to her back. Gomes throws her legs up with a triangle setup when the armbar is not there, and Suphisara slashes her with several elbows when the Thai gets space. Suphisara batters her opponent with elbows until the bell breaks them up.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara
Round 2
The ladies calmly saunter towards one another to start off Round 2, and Gomes throws first with an inaccurate head kick. Suphisara answers with a chopping leg kick, and her leg flies up high to the shoulder in a subsequent blow. Suphisara aims for a takedown, and she settles to topple over and put Gomes on her back, where she is already nearly in mount. Gomes drags her back to half guard and grips onto a kimura, and she succeeds in nullifying any additional strikes from the Thai. The sweep attempt fails, as Suphisara steps over into mount and pounds her with several elbows. Suphisara looks to take the back, but abandons it, sits up and returns to her feet. Gomes follows, and Suphisara greets her with a pair of kicks. Both women lead with fierce elbows, and Gomes crashes in to clinch before dropping to her knees for a single. “Loma Lookboonmee” defends it and works her adversary over in the clinch with knees and elbows. Gomes responds with one, and she falls to her back courtesy of a head lock throw. Suphisara, landing in half guard, starts to deliver some elbows to the dome. Gomes manages to pull Suphisara back to her guard, and she tries for a triangle choke of sorts. Suphisara stands and walks away, but she does not pay attention and thinks that Peterson is standing Gomes up. Peterson does nothing of the sort, and Gomes dives in for an unexpected takedown. Protect yourself at all times. Suphisara turns herself around to stay on her feet, and she frames off to peg Gomes with punches and kicks until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Suphisara
Round 3
The final frame begins frantically, as Gomes goes on the offensive immediately. Pushing forward, she drives Suphisara to the wall and lands a few solid punches. As Suphisara defends, Gomes spins with an elbow and blasts the Thai in the face. Gomes changes levels in search of a takedown, and the two hit the mat. Gomes tries to isolate a leg in search of a leglock, and Suphisara awkwardly slides her leg out of it but does not get up. Gomes jumps on to take her back, and she hooks the body triangle on her toes. Gomes starts setting up a rear-naked choke, and it is more of a neck crank as she cannot get a grip under the chin. Gomes keeps searching for chokes, but none are to be found as Suphisara defends her neck well. Suphisara explodes out of the position and right into armbar danger, but she shucks the legs out of the way and gets on top. Gomes turns and nearly gives up her own back, but Suphisara does not take it and decides to stand up. The Brazilian follows her to the feet, but “Loma Lookboonmee” immediately trips her out and lands on top. Suphisara belts her opponent with elbows as the blood flows freely from the UFC newcomer’s face, and Gomes can do little else but defend her head as she is jammed between the corner of the cage and the mat. Suphisara rains down several punches, and the final bell puts an end to this strange 115-pound pairing.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gomes (29-28 Suphisara)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gomes (29-28 Suphisara)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gomes (29-28 Suphisara)
The Official Result
Konklak Suphisara def. Denise Gomes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Lookboonmee, citing her technical Muay Thai striking and improved grappling. He notes that her only losses came when she was outgrappled, but he doesn't see that happening here. He believes she will win the striking exchanges and can mix in takedowns. Angelo mentions the line was wide but is tightening, and he considered a takedown prop bet.
Big Brady picks Loma Lookboonmee to win by decision. He states that Loma is the better technical striker by a mile and has improved with each fight. He notes that Denise Gomes is tough and gritty but very chinny, having been dropped and wobbled often. Brady believes Loma can implement her striking and possibly even get takedowns. However, he warns that Gomes throws high volume and has good recovery, so he would not lay the moneyline. He predicts Loma wins a decision, possibly dropping Gomes along the way.
Cody thinks Lookboonmee is a better striker with good clinch work and takedown defense. He notes Gomes is one-dimensional and coming off a short-notice fight where she took damage. He expects Lookboonmee to win a decision.
Daniel Levi leans Loma Lookboonmee due to her UFC experience and better competition, but is not confident. He notes both fighters are small for the weight class and that Gomes is tough with high volume. He expects a close split decision that could go either way, and does not bet.
Jacob is very high on Lookboonmee, praising her Muay Thai experience and her addition of wrestling and trips. He notes that she tossed Lupita Godinez, a great wrestler, to the ground. Jacob believes she is better everywhere and that the odds should be wider. He included her in a parlay at -270 and may add a moneyline bet if the odds drop further.
Loma has a decorated Muay Thai background and has added takedowns to her game, making her a more complete MMA fighter. Gomes is one-dimensional, relying on striking, and has shown vulnerability to grappling. Loma's cardio is better than Gomes's previous opponents, so she can mix in leg kicks and takedowns to keep Gomes guessing. Loma should win a decision or possibly a late finish.
Paul leans Lookboonmee, noting the line has moved but he still thinks she gets it done. He mentions the Lookboonmee decision prop at -105 as a better value.
The MMA Guru picks Loma Lookboonmee by 29-28 decision. He believes Lookboonmee is a technical striker with Muay Thai foundation, ready on short notice. He notes she has good grappling and has fought tough opponents like Angela Hill and Michelle Waterson. He thinks Denise Gomes is nothing special and that Lookboonmee will win on the feet with superior striking.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo is confident in Tecia Pennington as an underdog, calling her the best underdog on the card. He highlights her speed, durability, well-roundedness, and high fight IQ. He disagrees with the nearly 2-to-1 odds favoring Denise Gomes, arguing that Tecia is the more technical and experienced fighter. He plans to hammer a plus 3.5 bet on Tecia.
Big Brady favors Gomes due to her youth, power, and grappling upside, though he thinks the line might be a bit wide. He acknowledges Pennington is still fighting at a high level, citing her close decision against champion Mackenzie Dern. He expects a competitive fight that goes to a close decision, with Gomes landing the bigger shots and getting her hand raised.
Cody picks Pennington as a dog, citing her experience and ability to outwork opponents. He thinks Gomes' wrestling is not good enough to keep Pennington down, and Pennington can win a close decision.
Lucrative James leans towards Denise Gomes, citing her youth, power, and physicality. He acknowledges Tecia Pennington's experience and volume but believes Gomes' finishing upside and strength will be decisive. He is not confident due to Pennington's high level and the price, but picks Gomes for the win.
The host is a bit unsure but leans toward Gomes due to her power, expecting her to land more significant strikes. Pennington may have volume and takedown attempts, but Gomes should nullify most of that and win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Pennington, expecting a razor-thin split decision. He notes Pennington's takedown defense and striking volume, and thinks Gomes' wrestling is overrated.
The Guru picks Denise Gomes over Tecia Pennington. He believes Gomes will win via big moments and knockdowns, even if Pennington outlands her. He cites Pennington's tendency to lose close decisions due to lack of power, and Gomes's youth and size advantage. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Gomes.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!