UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025 · Catchweight (161 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown Next Fight
Age 30
Height 5' 9"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Chris Padilla
4.78 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.87 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.18 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ismael Bonfim
5.51 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.71 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
1.06 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Chris Padilla - Fight History
Draw vs Marquel Mederos
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 147 of 271 54% 164 of 291 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:09
Marquel Mederos 0 112 of 180 62% 117 of 186 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 40 of 66 60% 44 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:58
Marquel Mederos 0 27 of 41 65% 28 of 43 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
2 Chris Padilla 0 63 of 119 52% 71 of 129 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Marquel Mederos 0 44 of 75 58% 46 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:01
3 Chris Padilla 0 44 of 86 51% 49 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Marquel Mederos 0 41 of 64 64% 43 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 147 of 271 54% 71 of 164 30 of 40 46 of 67 124 of 242 22 of 28 1 of 1
Marquel Mederos 112 of 180 62% 81 of 147 12 of 13 19 of 20 91 of 155 21 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 40 of 66 60% 20 of 40 8 of 11 12 of 15 31 of 56 9 of 10 0 of 0
Marquel Mederos 27 of 41 65% 14 of 27 6 of 6 7 of 8 20 of 34 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 63 of 119 52% 23 of 62 11 of 14 29 of 43 61 of 113 2 of 6 0 of 0
Marquel Mederos 44 of 75 58% 32 of 62 3 of 4 9 of 9 42 of 71 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Chris Padilla 44 of 86 51% 28 of 62 11 of 15 5 of 9 32 of 73 11 of 12 1 of 1
Marquel Mederos 41 of 64 64% 35 of 58 3 of 3 3 of 3 29 of 50 12 of 14 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo leans toward Chris Padilla, believing his relentless pressure and smothering style will overwhelm Mark O. Madsen. He notes Madsen's composure and clean technique but thinks Padilla's pace and grinding approach will be too much, similar to how Austin Hubbard troubled Madsen. He expects Padilla to set a higher pace and win.

"Padilla is going to fight like that. Padilla will set twice the pace that Austin Hubbard did, and he has to be the pick for that reason."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Big Brady notes Padilla has been an underdog in all four UFC wins but is now favored. He praises Padilla's pressure, toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Padilla will make Medeiros uncomfortable with pressure and takedowns, winning a decision. He dislikes the -195 price but picks Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to take Chris Padilla to get it done. Chris Padilla to get it done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Cody also picks Padilla, noting his well-rounded game and Mederos' defensive flaws. He thinks Padilla's calf kicks and clinch work will lead to a win.

"I like Taku Padilla on a card of things I'm not so certain about... He's one of the guys I'm gonna have to put some trust into."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Connor picks Padilla based on his recent surge in confidence and fight IQ. He notes that Padilla has figured out how to win, using pressure and pace to overcome more technical fighters. He acknowledges that Medeiros is a more natural athlete but trusts Padilla's determination and recent trajectory.

"I'm gonna take Padilla where he could just get lucky."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Daniel admits he has been wrong about Padilla before and finally gives him credit. He thinks Padilla will edge a close decision, though he notes Mederos is a solid point fighter.

"I'll pick Padilla to edge out a close decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Daniel Vreeland picks Marquel Mederos, believing the odds are skewed. He notes that Padilla sits back and waits for opponents, while Mederos has good footwork, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Mederos will outpoint Padilla over three rounds, especially if Padilla can't land a big shot.

"I think the odds are nuts. I'm on Medeiros here hugely."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

James picks Mederos, believing his leg kicks and range control will be too much for Padilla, who is a late replacement. He thinks Padilla's style is not suited to beat Mederos.

"I will pick Markel Maderos to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Padilla's pressure, calf kicks, and Muay Thai should wear down Mederos over time. Mederos is fast and athletic but may fade after a round and a half. Padilla's durability and aggression have carried him in past fights. However, Mederos could win early rounds with speed. Padilla likely wins a decision or late finish, but the line is fair.

Padilla wins by decision
"I think Padilla's aggressiveness, calf kicks, and nasty Muay Thai could catch up to Maderos here. ... the prediction will stay Padilla and Padilla by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Paul is confident in Padilla, praising his veteran savvy, Muay Thai, and cage control. He thinks Padilla's advanced basics will overwhelm the green Mederos.

"I like Taco Padilla, man. This guy's got it... I honestly think Padilla... has got this man's number and is going to hand him a defeat."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

The MMA Guru picks Chris Padilla over Marquel Mederos. He calls Padilla a crafty veteran who has been winning as an underdog, with a nasty elbow finish over Rong Zhu. He notes Mederos had a split decision with Austin Hubbard, and believes Padilla's craftiness and back takes will earn him a 30-27 decision.

"I think Paddy is sneaky good in the lightweight division."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Zane picks Padilla, agreeing that he is figuring things out while Medeiros is still floating. He notes that Medeiros fights like Tony Ferguson, relying on creativity and 50/50 exchanges, which is risky against a determined fighter like Padilla. He acknowledges that Medeiros could click, but Padilla's confidence and game plan give him the edge.

"I'll take a boat of confidence for Chris Padilla continuing to blossom."
WIN vs Ismael Bonfim
KO R2 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 64 of 109 58% 88 of 134 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:21
Ismael Bonfim 0 42 of 84 50% 47 of 89 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 17 of 31 54% 38 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
Ismael Bonfim 0 14 of 28 50% 18 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
2 Chris Padilla 0 47 of 78 60% 50 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Ismael Bonfim 0 28 of 56 50% 29 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 64 of 109 58% 33 of 60 10 of 15 21 of 34 43 of 83 6 of 6 15 of 20
Ismael Bonfim 42 of 84 50% 27 of 68 12 of 13 3 of 3 42 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 17 of 31 54% 8 of 13 4 of 6 5 of 12 15 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ismael Bonfim 14 of 28 50% 9 of 23 4 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 47 of 78 60% 25 of 47 6 of 9 16 of 22 28 of 54 4 of 4 15 of 20
Ismael Bonfim 28 of 56 50% 18 of 45 8 of 9 2 of 2 28 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim because he is better everywhere, but he acknowledges the concern about Ismael quitting on the stool in his last fight. He argues that Ismael took a massive shot to the face and was not fully there, so he is not a quitter. He expects Ismael to win but notes that Chris Padilla is tough and a live dog.

"I'm going to be on the Ismael Bonfim side. He's just better everywhere, and as long as he did not quit on that stool, we should be good."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady thinks Bonfim is the more skilled fighter with good boxing and volume, but worries about his durability as he has been finished in all five losses. He notes Padilla is durable and has heart but doesn't wrestle enough. He favors Bonfim's striking over 15 minutes and predicts a decision win, though he thinks a finish is more likely from Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to go Bonfi here to win a decision. I don't think he's finishing Padilla."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim but is not confident. He notes Padilla's awkward movement and counter-striking, and Bonfim's one-dimensional style and questionable cardio. He thinks Bonfim's volume and aggression might win a decision, but it's a risky bet.

"I guess I got Bonfim, but it's another fight I really don't care for."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Lucrative James leans towards Chris Padilla, though he admits he doesn't have a great read on him. He notes Padilla's dangerous striking and ability to win close fights, while Ismael Bonfim is more predictable. He expects Padilla to land better shots, possibly cutting Bonfim, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Padilla's finishing upside via submission or doctor stoppage.

"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm not I haven't got a long breakdown for you guys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The host thinks Bonfim has underachieved recently while Padilla has overachieved, and expects a correction. Bonfim should dictate the pace, land more damage, and win on the scorecards in deep water.

"I think Bomb Fee has underachieved in his last few fights. And on the other side, I think Padilla has overachieved. And I think we'll see the course kind of correct itself here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul leans Bonfim but is not betting him. He thinks Bonfim's volume could be key, but Padilla's counter-striking and Bonfim's tendency to run into shots are concerns. He mentions a small shot on Padilla KO at plus 600.

"I'm not going to be letting Ismael Bonfim ruin my week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

The Guru picks Chris Padilla as a crafty underdog. He believes Padilla's experience, reach, and versatility (elbows, kicks, spinning attacks) will trouble Ismael Bonfim, who has struggled against gritty opponents. He expects a close decision win for Padilla, 29-28.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm gonna take a crafty underdog of Chris Padilla here."
WIN vs Jai Herbert
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jai Herbert 0 38 of 122 31% 59 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Chris Padilla 0 39 of 98 39% 88 of 147 0 of 6 0% 0 0 3:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jai Herbert 0 3 of 16 18% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Padilla 0 9 of 24 37% 29 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
2 Jai Herbert 0 7 of 42 16% 12 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Chris Padilla 0 13 of 32 40% 32 of 51 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:34
3 Jai Herbert 0 28 of 64 43% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Padilla 0 17 of 42 40% 27 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jai Herbert 38 of 122 31% 19 of 92 10 of 19 9 of 11 37 of 120 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Padilla 39 of 98 39% 20 of 60 6 of 9 13 of 29 35 of 94 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jai Herbert 3 of 16 18% 0 of 9 1 of 5 2 of 2 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Padilla 9 of 24 37% 3 of 11 1 of 2 5 of 11 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jai Herbert 7 of 42 16% 4 of 33 0 of 5 3 of 4 7 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Padilla 13 of 32 40% 6 of 17 3 of 4 4 of 11 11 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jai Herbert 28 of 64 43% 15 of 50 9 of 9 4 of 5 27 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Padilla 17 of 42 40% 11 of 32 2 of 3 4 of 7 15 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Herbert (-125), Padilla (+105)

Round 1
Lukasz Bosacki will ref this featured preliminary bout at lightweight. It’s a very deliberate opening minute. Padilla lands a right over the top during an initial exchange. Halfway through the round and not much in the way of offense has landed. A Herbert kick hits Padilla’s forearm. A kick from Herbert lands below the belt, but Padilla doesn’t need a pause. A front kick finds the range for Herbert. Padilla shoots for a takedown and pushes Herbet into the fence. Padilla with some knees to the thighs late in the round. Padilla keeps the position, landing periodic knees until the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla

Round 2
Herbert probes with a front kick. A Herbert head kick partially lands as Padilla throws a body kick at the same time. Padilla steps in with a body kick. Once again, offense is coming at a premium. Padilla sticks a jab. Padilla grabs a body lock after an ill-advised spinning kick by Herbert. Padilla has underhooks against the fence and he’s content to grind away her. Herbert tries for a hip toss, and while it doesn’t work, it gets the fight to the center of the cage. Herbert pumps out his jab and Padilla claims his eyes are poked, but there’s no stop in the fight. Herbert steps in with a right. An inside leg kick lans for the Brit, but Padilla shoves his foe into the cage. Padilla with some short punches and knees in close. Herbert lands a knee as they separate, but he can’t find the range on anything else before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla

Round 3
Herbert opens with a pair of inside low kicks. A right over the top gets through for Padilla. Herbert threatens with a leaping knee but Padilla sidesteps without issue. Padilla shoots after a Herbert low kick and pushes his adversary into the fence. Padilla lands a short elbow on the break. Herbert lands a 1-2 as he stalks his foe. Herbert has picked up his volume this round, which isn’t saying much. Herbert pressures and is putting some straight punches together. Padilla lands a body kick. Padilla changes levels and secures a body lock. Herbert defends the takedown against the fence, briefly threatening with a guillotine. Herbert lands a knee in the clinch as Padilla drops low for a takedown. Herbert revreses and sperarates. Herbert follows a jab with a knee. The Englishman is doing better mixing in punches and knees, but Padilla, who was busted open at some point during the round, stumbles his foe with an overhand right on the temple during an exchange. Herbert doesn’t seem any worse for wear, though, as he keeps the pressure on. They trade leg kicks as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)

The Official Result
Chris Padilla def. Jai Herbert via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo picks Chris Padilla, calling Jai Herbert overrated and noting his mediocre takedown defense. He believes Padilla's pressure, durability, and explosiveness will be key. He hopes Padilla wrestles more in this fight. He mentions the line is moving and he's picking Padilla while he's still a slight underdog.

"I keep picking Chris Pilla here... I'm picking him now while he's a slight Underdog"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Brady sees Padilla as a live dog who has improved a lot. He notes Herbert is hesitant and low-volume now, and Padilla has finishing upside with grappling and durability. Brady predicts a close decision win for Padilla, possibly with big moments and takedowns.

Padilla by decision
"give me taba to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by a very close decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Connor picks Padilla despite being unconvinced of his quality. He notes Padilla is formlessly aggressive and has survived in the UFC, but his wins are against poor competition. Connor thinks Padilla might be able to take Herbert down or mix it up, and Herbert is very destroyable. He calls it a coin flip.

"I'm gonna take padilla here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

The host disagrees with the betting public moving towards Padilla. He believes Herbert is a cleaner striker with improved striking defense and durability, allowing him to operate at distance and win on the scorecards.

"I think Herbert is a cleaner striker and I think we've been seeing an improvement in his striking defense and durability as of late."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

The Guru leans towards Chris Padilla as a slight underdog, citing his finishing streak and ability to get to dominant positions. He notes that Jai Herbert often has close decisions and may be nearing the end of his career at 36. He believes Padilla's dynamism and finishing potential will be the difference, and that Herbert's tendency to let fights get away will cost him.

"I'm going to take a slight Underdog of Chris Padilla to be honest with you"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jai Herbert

Zane picks Herbert but is not sold on Padilla either. He notes Herbert is dangerous early with his height and power, but has a fatal weakness in defensive wrestling and is fragile in the pocket. Zane thinks Herbert will do serious damage early, but Padilla might get a takedown or mix it up. He calls it a coin flip.

"I'm gonna take herbert here, but it is if ever a man was bound to just have somebody fall on him and fall over and then not be able to get back to his feet it's giant herbert."
WIN vs Rong Zhu
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 4:14 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 49 of 88 55% 49 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Rong Zhu 0 68 of 105 64% 73 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 27 of 54 50% 27 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rong Zhu 0 35 of 53 66% 35 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Padilla 0 22 of 34 64% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Rong Zhu 0 33 of 52 63% 38 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 49 of 88 55% 26 of 61 12 of 13 11 of 14 43 of 81 6 of 7 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 68 of 105 64% 36 of 51 8 of 12 24 of 42 62 of 98 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 27 of 54 50% 15 of 38 4 of 5 8 of 11 27 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 35 of 53 66% 16 of 22 4 of 7 15 of 24 35 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 22 of 34 64% 11 of 23 8 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 27 6 of 7 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 33 of 52 63% 20 of 29 4 of 5 9 of 18 27 of 45 6 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo picks Chris Padilla as an underdog because he is well-rounded, explosive, and composed, with multiple ways to win. He notes that Rong Zhu's wins are on the regional scene and he headhunts, while Chris can scramble and snatch submissions. He plans to wait for prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.

Angelo says he will wait for prop bets such as Chris Padilla plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance (decision no action).
"I'm going out on a limb I'm picking the dog Chris Padilla"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision. He notes Zhu is a big favorite at -265 and is improving at 24 years old. Brady thinks Zhu is the much better striker and his takedown defense is improving. He acknowledges Padilla can wrestle but lacks top control, so he expects Zhu to keep it on the feet and win a decision.

"I'll go rangu to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Cody picks Padilla, arguing that Zhu's competition on Road to UFC is weak and he has been taken down by lesser fighters. He notes Padilla's wrestling and submission skills, and believes he can neutralize Zhu's striking. He sees the -220 line on Zhu as too wide and takes the plus money.

"I'm G take Chris Padilla this is another PRP type long shot play"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Daniel thinks Rong Zhu has matured since his first UFC stint and is now ready. He believes Zhu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and that his volume, calf kicks, and athleticism will overwhelm Padilla. He expects Zhu to stuff takedowns and chip away at Padilla, possibly winning a decision.

"I think Rong zoo is gonna stuff this man's takedowns and bust him up... I'm going Rong zooo here to get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Rong Zhu is a dangerous striker with improved takedown defense and get-ups. Padilla is a power puncher who relies on grappling, but Rong Zhu should nullify that and find a finish within two rounds. The host sees a more mature version of Rong Zhu now.

Rong Zhu by finish within 2 rounds
"I'm going to go uh wrong zuu here and I think he eventually finds the Finish within possibly two rounds or so."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Paul is interested in Padilla's submission prop at +600, noting his recent submission wins and wrestling advantage. He believes Padilla can take Zhu down and control him, as Zhu has been taken down by lesser competition. He sees value at plus money and picks Padilla as an underdog.

Chris Padilla by submission +600 (playable)
"Padilla I was interested in his submission prop it's obviously early in the week so numbers aren't the greatest six plus 600 is the best on Market which I think is like playable"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Chris Padilla. He criticizes Padilla's recent losses and long career, while praising Zhu's youth (24), activity, and evolution as a fighter. He notes Zhu has been fighting higher-level competition and is on a streak since being cut from the UFC. He expects Zhu to have a good performance.

"I think he's going to go out there and have a good performance against Chris Pilla... I think he's going to get this one done over Chris Padilla"
WIN vs James Llontop
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:33 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
James Llontop 0 12 of 26 46% 14 of 29 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
James Llontop 0 12 of 26 46% 14 of 29 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 19 of 40 47% 7 of 25 2 of 4 10 of 11 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
James Llontop 12 of 26 46% 6 of 18 1 of 3 5 of 5 9 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 19 of 40 47% 7 of 25 2 of 4 10 of 11 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
James Llontop 12 of 26 46% 6 of 18 1 of 3 5 of 5 9 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
James Llontop

Cody picks Llontop, citing his youth, cardio, and pressure style. He notes Padilla has lost all four step-up fights and is on short notice. He expects Llontop to overwhelm Padilla with volume and eventually finish him.

"long top rightful favorite"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
James Llontop

Daniel likes Llontop's takedown defense, clean striking, and solid output. He views Padilla as a regional journeyman who only got the fight on short notice. He picks Llontop to win, possibly by knockout, but won't lay -400.

"I got to go Lop here to to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
James Llontop

Llontop is a pressure-heavy fighter who loves to move forward, grind opponents in the clinch, and take them down. He has good cardio and pace. Padilla is on short notice and has mediocre competition wins. I expect Llontop to walk through Padilla's early power, then overwhelm him with volume and output, finishing him in the second or third round.

"I think that lawn toop will just be too much for him in the spot and I think he ends up overwhelming him and finishing him in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
James Llontop

Paul agrees, noting Llontop's win over Malik Lewis and Padilla's struggles against higher-level competition. He thinks Llontop's pace and power will be too much, and expects a knockout or clear decision.

"James laop is another one of your good picks this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
James Llontop

The MMA Guru picks James Llontop, comparing his composure to JDM and Max Holloway. He notes Llontop's technical striking, counter right hand, and ability to stay composed in the pocket. He criticizes Chris Padilla for coming from a low-level promotion and taking the fight on short notice, which may affect his weight cut. The Guru also mentions that Llontop had a full training camp and is more prepared.

"I'm going to go with James Lono over Chris Pilla"
Ismael Bonfim - Fight History
LOSS vs Chris Padilla
KO R2 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 64 of 109 58% 88 of 134 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:21
Ismael Bonfim 0 42 of 84 50% 47 of 89 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 17 of 31 54% 38 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
Ismael Bonfim 0 14 of 28 50% 18 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
2 Chris Padilla 0 47 of 78 60% 50 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Ismael Bonfim 0 28 of 56 50% 29 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 64 of 109 58% 33 of 60 10 of 15 21 of 34 43 of 83 6 of 6 15 of 20
Ismael Bonfim 42 of 84 50% 27 of 68 12 of 13 3 of 3 42 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 17 of 31 54% 8 of 13 4 of 6 5 of 12 15 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ismael Bonfim 14 of 28 50% 9 of 23 4 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 47 of 78 60% 25 of 47 6 of 9 16 of 22 28 of 54 4 of 4 15 of 20
Ismael Bonfim 28 of 56 50% 18 of 45 8 of 9 2 of 2 28 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim because he is better everywhere, but he acknowledges the concern about Ismael quitting on the stool in his last fight. He argues that Ismael took a massive shot to the face and was not fully there, so he is not a quitter. He expects Ismael to win but notes that Chris Padilla is tough and a live dog.

"I'm going to be on the Ismael Bonfim side. He's just better everywhere, and as long as he did not quit on that stool, we should be good."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady thinks Bonfim is the more skilled fighter with good boxing and volume, but worries about his durability as he has been finished in all five losses. He notes Padilla is durable and has heart but doesn't wrestle enough. He favors Bonfim's striking over 15 minutes and predicts a decision win, though he thinks a finish is more likely from Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to go Bonfi here to win a decision. I don't think he's finishing Padilla."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim but is not confident. He notes Padilla's awkward movement and counter-striking, and Bonfim's one-dimensional style and questionable cardio. He thinks Bonfim's volume and aggression might win a decision, but it's a risky bet.

"I guess I got Bonfim, but it's another fight I really don't care for."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Lucrative James leans towards Chris Padilla, though he admits he doesn't have a great read on him. He notes Padilla's dangerous striking and ability to win close fights, while Ismael Bonfim is more predictable. He expects Padilla to land better shots, possibly cutting Bonfim, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Padilla's finishing upside via submission or doctor stoppage.

"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm not I haven't got a long breakdown for you guys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The host thinks Bonfim has underachieved recently while Padilla has overachieved, and expects a correction. Bonfim should dictate the pace, land more damage, and win on the scorecards in deep water.

"I think Bomb Fee has underachieved in his last few fights. And on the other side, I think Padilla has overachieved. And I think we'll see the course kind of correct itself here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul leans Bonfim but is not betting him. He thinks Bonfim's volume could be key, but Padilla's counter-striking and Bonfim's tendency to run into shots are concerns. He mentions a small shot on Padilla KO at plus 600.

"I'm not going to be letting Ismael Bonfim ruin my week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

The Guru picks Chris Padilla as a crafty underdog. He believes Padilla's experience, reach, and versatility (elbows, kicks, spinning attacks) will trouble Ismael Bonfim, who has struggled against gritty opponents. He expects a close decision win for Padilla, 29-28.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm gonna take a crafty underdog of Chris Padilla here."
LOSS vs Nazim Sadykhov
KO R1 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ismael Bonfim 0 26 of 42 61% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nazim Sadykhov 0 13 of 46 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ismael Bonfim 0 26 of 42 61% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nazim Sadykhov 0 13 of 46 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ismael Bonfim 26 of 42 61% 14 of 29 5 of 5 7 of 8 24 of 39 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nazim Sadykhov 13 of 46 28% 9 of 35 2 of 7 2 of 4 12 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ismael Bonfim 26 of 42 61% 14 of 29 5 of 5 7 of 8 24 of 39 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nazim Sadykhov 13 of 46 28% 9 of 35 2 of 7 2 of 4 12 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ismael Bonfim vs. Nazim Sadykhov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-198), Sadykhov (+164)

Round 1
Hoping to making tonight a winning night for the family, the elder yet lighter Bonfim (20-4, 2-1 UFC) hits the cage. In a class battle of Brazil vs. Azerbaijan, “Marreta” squares off with Sadykhov (9-1-1, 2-0-1 UFC) in what could be a fascinating 155-pound affair. The styles presented by both men could result in some mighty, thrilling clashes before the dust settles, and referee Mark Smith has the best seat in the house. Doing his duties, Smith clocks the fighters in who are already mid-fist bump. They switch stances while looking for range, and Bonfim strikes first with a few punches and a low kick. Sadykhov has a head kick pound into the guard, and he kicks a few times and spins with a failed back fist. Bonfim loops a right hand around the raised block, and he lets Sadykhov wind up so he can blast him with a right hand and let Sadykhov go whizzing past him. Bonfim just misses with a speedy one-two, and he has a second impact off the shoulder. A third gets through, forcing Sadykhov to swing hard at him. Bonfim gets away with an eye poke, and Sadykhov whips a hook kick at him. Bonfim raps two right hands on the side of the melon, and Sadykhov takes them cleanly without overly seeming concerned. Bonfim lunges to connect with two punches, dancing away from a head kick. Bonfim’s one-two is money in the bank as he keeps drilling “Black Wolf” with it, and Sadykhov is tough but under serious fire. Sadykhov swing back with a vengeance, but his hurled strikes are largely coming up short. Bonfim surges forward with punches, bouncing Sadykhov off the wall and back. When Bonfim wraps a kick under the guard, he is able to slide away before Sadykhov can wind up with his own left hand response. Two kicks from Sadykhov are blocked, and a third hits Bonfim right in the eye and messes him up. Bonfim escapes, and Sadykhov rushes after him hitting him with hammers. A few big left hands from Sadykhov bust a cut open under his right eye, and Sadykhov uses the clinch to hang on to the bell.
Between rounds, Bonfim is appearing severely compromised from the head kick. Smith brings in the doctor after letting the corner and cutman do their business. Bonfim claims that he cannot see, and that is all a physician needs to hear to suggest a fight getting called off.
Bonfim is upset, as he says that he both can and can't see, with the ringside doctor saying it can't be both ways. Any complaints no longer matter, as Smith waves the fight off due to the advice of the physician.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sadykhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sadykhov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sadykhov

The Official Result
Nazim Sadykhov def. Ismael Bonfim R1 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim over Nazim Sadykhov, noting that while Sadykhov is talented, his wins have caveats (e.g., Evan Elder was beating him before a cut, Terrence McKinney was beating him before gassing). He believes Bonfim will stay busy with striking and may mix in takedowns, and that Bonfim won't gas or get cut like Sadykhov's previous opponents.

"I think Ishmael stays busy with the Striking may or may not work in his own takedown I am going to pick Ishmael bonfim here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady picks Bonfim by decision, noting he is the better striker with good boxing and defensive responsibility. Sadykhov has volume issues and was outlanded by Evan Elder. Bonfim has takedown defense to keep it standing and a good chin. Sadykhov may land a big shot but Bonfim has never been knocked out.

"I got Bon here I think he wins this fight and wins it by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Connor picks Ismael Bonfim, agreeing with Zane that Bonfim is more technical. He notes that Sadykhov is a brute with a shallow game who breaks down when out-techniqued. Connor highlights Bonfim's arrogance as a potential weakness but believes Sadykhov's lack of horsepower means Bonfim can successfully pressure and break him. He also notes that Sadykhov will give up the initiative if pressured, unlike Santini, which favors Bonfim.

Connor notes the odds: Bonfim opened at -153 and is now -192, Sadykhov opened at +117 and is now +172. He says the odds make sense but wouldn't get them much wider, as Bonfim has lost a fight like this before.
"I think Bonfiniem is really good, but I, you know, it's all, I guess it's all going off of, well, it's not all going off that one fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Lucrative James picks Ismael Bonfim to win by decision, but admits he does not have a strong read on this fight and needs to do more tape study. He sees Bonfim as the more technical striker with better leg kicks and a well-rounded game, while Sadykhov is a brawler with power and durability. He thinks Bonfim's experience and technicality will allow him to outpoint Sadykhov over three rounds, but acknowledges Sadykhov could land a big shot or win a war. He is not confident enough to recommend a bet.

"I'm going to pick bom them in this fight I think that he's going to win a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Ismael Bonfim

Bonfim has the experience advantage and more to bring to the table. As long as Sadykhov doesn't land a big power shot, Bonfim dictates pace and pressure and wins on the scorecards.

"I believe that Bonfim will showcase that experience advantage here against Nazim Sadykhov... Bonfim should be able to dictate the pace and pressure of this fight and end up winning it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The MMA Guru picks Ismael Bonfim over Nazim Sadykhov, noting Bonfim's slickness and more options. He criticizes Sadykhov for letting fights get scrappy and lacking ability to force things. He believes Bonfim's time off has allowed improvement and he will deliver, though he jokes about Bonfim's reaction to his brother's potential loss.

"I'm gonna go with ishmail bum furm here over nazim sadikov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Zane picks Ismael Bonfim, citing Bonfim's superior technical skills in striking, wrestling, and grappling compared to Sadykhov. He notes that Sadykhov's game breaks down when faced with better technique, as he only wants to fight one way. Zane acknowledges Bonfim's tendency to make arrogant decisions and give up positions, but believes Sadykhov lacks the horsepower to capitalize like Santini did. He also points out that Sadykhov is more of an opportunist on the ground, not a constrictor, reducing the risk of Bonfim getting caught.

Zane notes the odds: Bonfim opened at -153 and is now -192, Sadykhov opened at +117 and is now +172. He says the odds make sense but wouldn't get them much wider, as Bonfim has lost a fight like this before.
"I think I'll take Bonfiniem too, but yeah, and that is different between him."
WIN vs Vinc Pichel
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ismael Bonfim 0 111 of 216 51% 112 of 217 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Vinc Pichel 0 61 of 142 42% 64 of 147 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ismael Bonfim 0 34 of 66 51% 34 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Vinc Pichel 0 18 of 47 38% 18 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
2 Ismael Bonfim 0 36 of 75 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinc Pichel 0 22 of 54 40% 22 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Ismael Bonfim 0 41 of 75 54% 42 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Vinc Pichel 0 21 of 41 51% 24 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ismael Bonfim 111 of 216 51% 80 of 176 13 of 20 18 of 20 107 of 209 2 of 4 2 of 3
Vinc Pichel 61 of 142 42% 26 of 93 14 of 24 21 of 25 60 of 140 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ismael Bonfim 34 of 66 51% 19 of 47 2 of 4 13 of 15 34 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 18 of 47 38% 5 of 29 5 of 10 8 of 8 18 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ismael Bonfim 36 of 75 48% 29 of 66 4 of 6 3 of 3 36 of 74 0 of 1 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 22 of 54 40% 9 of 37 3 of 5 10 of 12 22 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ismael Bonfim 41 of 75 54% 32 of 63 7 of 10 2 of 2 37 of 69 2 of 3 2 of 3
Vinc Pichel 21 of 41 51% 12 of 27 6 of 9 3 of 5 20 of 39 0 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo is confident in Bonfim, citing his youth, power, and aggressive style against the 41-year-old Pichel who hasn't fought in two years. He references the trend of older fighters getting finished at UFC Vegas 91. He advises betting early before odds move.

"Ishmael bonfim is the pick and if you want to bet on him you need to do it now before the odds take over"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady highlights Bonfim's youth and striking advantage, noting Pichel's age (41) and long layoff as major concerns. He believes Bonfim will stuff takedowns and dominate on the feet, leading to a one-sided decision. He acknowledges Pichel's submission threat but doubts he can implement it.

"I'm taking Bonfim to win this fight by a pretty one-sided decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim, citing his sharp striking, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Pichel is 41, inactive, and has no submission wins. Cody expects Bonfim to win, possibly by decision or late finish.

"I just feel like Bonfim is way sharper..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Daniel Vreeland picks Bonfim by decision, citing his youth, volume striking, and experience despite his age. He notes that Pichel is durable and has low mileage for his age, but Bonfim's boxing and takedown defense should allow him to win minutes on the feet. He believes Bonfim's finishing equity is overrated and that a decision is likely.

Bonfim by decision
"bonim by decision I think he's got some value"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Bonfim stumbled in his last fight against Benoit Saint-Denis but is expected to have a better showing against the 41-year-old Pichel, who has been two years away from the cage. Bonfim is the slicker striker and can stay competitive in grappling if Pichel takes it there. His striking will start to chip away at Pichel and allow him to find a finish in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"I think bomfim is the Slicker Striker and can stay in competitive in the grappling R should Pelle look to take it there but I think that bomb F Slicker striking approach will start to C CCH up to Pelle …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul picks Bonfim, highlighting his explosive striking and takedown defense. He notes Pichel's inactivity and age are concerns. Paul expects Bonfim to win but acknowledges Pichel's grit could make it competitive.

"I think he's good... he looked really good in the contender series..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The MMA Guru confidently picks Ismael Bonfim, predicting a first-round TKO. He expects Bonfim to push Pichel against the cage and bait him with feints, while noting Pichel's age (41) and over two years of inactivity as key factors. He also mentions Bonfim's good jiu-jitsu and the favorable matchup.

TKO in the first round
"ishmail Bon ferm's gonna go out there and get a TKO in the first round"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:48 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Benoît Saint Denis 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Ismael Bonfim 0 13 of 33 39% 35 of 58 2 of 7 28% 2 0 2:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Benoît Saint Denis 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Ismael Bonfim 0 13 of 33 39% 35 of 58 2 of 7 28% 2 0 2:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Benoît Saint Denis 14 of 24 58% 9 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 18 5 of 5 1 of 1
Ismael Bonfim 13 of 33 39% 3 of 18 10 of 15 0 of 0 11 of 29 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Benoît Saint Denis 14 of 24 58% 9 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 18 5 of 5 1 of 1
Ismael Bonfim 13 of 33 39% 3 of 18 10 of 15 0 of 0 11 of 29 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim due to his incredible power and impressive debut. However, he advises caution because Bonfim is still unproven and Saint Denis is a tough opponent with good wrestling. He notes Bonfim's boxing and BJJ but questions his cardio and takedown defense. He calls it a low confidence pick.

"the pick here is going to be a bonfin because of his incredible power and Saint Denny gets hit but I advise all of you to be very very careful here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady picks Ismael Bonfim to win by third-round knockout. He believes Bonfim is the much better striker with power, and though his striking defense is a liability, Saint Denis is hittable and has been finished before. He notes Bonfim's takedown defense has improved, so Saint Denis won't be able to grapple. He expects Bonfim to land repeatedly and get a late finish.

third round knockout
"I like Bond theme here I think Bon FEMA actually probably knocks out Saint Denis and I think it's probably late in the fight second or third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody is high on Bonfim, calling him the real deal with good movement, power, accuracy, and solid takedown defense. He notes Bonfim's wins over tough competition on Contender Series and Terrence McKinney. He sees Saint Denis as an all-action brawler who is hittable and has a good chin but will be overwhelmed by Bonfim's precision. Cody expects Bonfim to win by knockout or clear decision.

Fight of the Night candidate
"I think bomb theme is going to dish it out and Benoit saying to me for as tough as he is is gonna take it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Daniel confidently picks Bonfim, citing his polished boxing, feints, timing, and well-rounded game. He notes Saint Denis is tough and durable but his striking is less polished, and Bonfim is comfortable on the ground as well. He believes the striking gap is significant and that Bonfim covers Saint Denis across the board. He missed the opening line (-250) and won't bet at -310, but expects Bonfim to win.

missed the line at -250; Bonfim minus 310
"I missed the line but he is my pick win this fight and I'm not sure if I even want to call it a dog or pass situation because I just think stylistically he has them covered"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James says he has not taped this fight yet and does not have an opinion. He notes that Benoît Saint Denis is tough but may be outmatched, and that Ismael Bonfim is favored on the feet. He suggests the over might be an angle but needs to do more tape.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision
"I do not have an opinion because I haven't taped this yet."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul thinks the line is a bit out of hand but still picks Bonfim. He notes Saint Denis is capable of making it a war and has value at +260, but Bonfim's skills are superior. Paul mentions the judges can be unpredictable, but Bonfim should win if it's close.

"I think Ben wants to knee is capable of at least making this like an absolute War plus 260"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The Guru picks Ismael Bonfim, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Bonfim's impressive win over Terence McKinney via flying knee KO and his strong grappling and takedown defense. He predicts Bonfim will stuff Saint Denis's takedowns and get a second-round TKO, as Saint Denis will hesitate and get broken down.

second round TKO
"I'm gonna go with Ishmael bun firm over Benoit Saint Denise here... another no-brainer in my opinion"
KO (flying knee) R2 2:17 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ismael Bonfim 1 34 of 49 69% 38 of 53 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:48
Terrance McKinney 0 14 of 49 28% 20 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ismael Bonfim 0 17 of 22 77% 21 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:47
Terrance McKinney 0 7 of 19 36% 13 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:11
2 Ismael Bonfim 1 17 of 27 62% 17 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Terrance McKinney 0 7 of 30 23% 7 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ismael Bonfim 34 of 49 69% 16 of 30 16 of 17 2 of 2 24 of 39 10 of 10 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 14 of 49 28% 10 of 43 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 45 0 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ismael Bonfim 17 of 22 77% 5 of 10 10 of 10 2 of 2 8 of 13 9 of 9 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 7 of 19 36% 4 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 1 2 of 2
2 Ismael Bonfim 17 of 27 62% 11 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0 16 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 7 of 30 23% 6 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks McKinney to win by first-round knockout, noting McKinney's incredible power and finishing ability. He acknowledges Bonfim has patched his submission defense and is well-rounded, but McKinney hits like a truck and has good wrestling. He thinks Bonfim will have to walk through fire and if the fight gets past one and a half rounds, Bonfim likely finishes McKinney. He's not betting but expects violence.

first round knockout, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm gonna take McKinney here to win in the first two minutes and 30 seconds and I'm gonna take in the win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Ismael Bonfim as a dog, noting his cardio, durability, and well-rounded skills. He says McKinney is explosive but fades under adversity and has poor durability. He thinks Bonfim can weather the early storm and take over as McKinney gasses. He mentions Bonfim's win over Nariman Abbasov as a sign of his quality. He says this is his second underdog pick.

mentions McKinney's tendency to gas; says Bonfim has good cardio
"I could take bomb female actually Terence McKinney is extremely talented I think we all know that about it the guy is very fast very athletic massively explosive huge huge power"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Connor also picks Bonfim, citing McKinney's inability to fight past the first round. He notes Bonfim is a clean puncher with solid grappling and has never been knocked out. McKinney's recklessness and poor cardio are key factors.

"I think I'm going to pick Ismael Bonfim."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Paul picks Terrance McKinney, noting his explosiveness and power. He says McKinney will likely finish early, but acknowledges the risk of him gassing. He says he's not betting this fight but picks McKinney. He mentions McKinney's under machine reputation and that the under 1.5 rounds is juiced.

mentions under 1.5 rounds at -225; says McKinney is an under machine
"I'll pick Terence McKinney but yeah this is more of a yeah they're bet McKinney pre-flop or you wait for McKinney to to blow his load"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The Guru picks McKinney but acknowledges Bonfim is dangerous. He trusts McKinney's weird wiry speed and power in the early round, noting how he nearly put away Dober quickly. McKinney has a wrestling background that is often overlooked. The Guru predicts a first-round finish, possibly by submission after hurting Bonfim on the feet. However, he warns that if the fight goes past the first round without Bonfim being hurt, Bonfim may take over.

first round finish
"I got a side with that first round finishing ability of Terence McKinney but I will say if this goes past the first round and the bonfirm hasn't been hurt ... switch your money up and go on bomb firm"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Zane picks Bonfim because McKinney burns out quickly if he doesn't get an early finish. Bonfim is durable, solid, and has never been knocked out. He notes McKinney's style is unsustainable and he loses after the first round. Bonfim's experience and ability to survive should lead to a win.

"If he can survive for five minutes against Terrence McKinney as a newcomer, there's a real good chance that he will have enough left in the tank to win."
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim because he is better everywhere, but he acknowledges the concern about Ismael quitting on the stool in his last fight. He argues that Ismael took a massive shot to the face and was not fully there, so he is not a quitter. He expects Ismael to win but notes that Chris Padilla is tough and a live dog.

"I'm going to be on the Ismael Bonfim side. He's just better everywhere, and as long as he did not quit on that stool, we should be good."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady thinks Bonfim is the more skilled fighter with good boxing and volume, but worries about his durability as he has been finished in all five losses. He notes Padilla is durable and has heart but doesn't wrestle enough. He favors Bonfim's striking over 15 minutes and predicts a decision win, though he thinks a finish is more likely from Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to go Bonfi here to win a decision. I don't think he's finishing Padilla."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim but is not confident. He notes Padilla's awkward movement and counter-striking, and Bonfim's one-dimensional style and questionable cardio. He thinks Bonfim's volume and aggression might win a decision, but it's a risky bet.

"I guess I got Bonfim, but it's another fight I really don't care for."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Lucrative James leans towards Chris Padilla, though he admits he doesn't have a great read on him. He notes Padilla's dangerous striking and ability to win close fights, while Ismael Bonfim is more predictable. He expects Padilla to land better shots, possibly cutting Bonfim, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Padilla's finishing upside via submission or doctor stoppage.

"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm not I haven't got a long breakdown for you guys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The host thinks Bonfim has underachieved recently while Padilla has overachieved, and expects a correction. Bonfim should dictate the pace, land more damage, and win on the scorecards in deep water.

"I think Bomb Fee has underachieved in his last few fights. And on the other side, I think Padilla has overachieved. And I think we'll see the course kind of correct itself here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul leans Bonfim but is not betting him. He thinks Bonfim's volume could be key, but Padilla's counter-striking and Bonfim's tendency to run into shots are concerns. He mentions a small shot on Padilla KO at plus 600.

"I'm not going to be letting Ismael Bonfim ruin my week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

The Guru picks Chris Padilla as a crafty underdog. He believes Padilla's experience, reach, and versatility (elbows, kicks, spinning attacks) will trouble Ismael Bonfim, who has struggled against gritty opponents. He expects a close decision win for Padilla, 29-28.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm gonna take a crafty underdog of Chris Padilla here."