UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai

Big Brady thinks the line should be flipped and Sakai should be favored. He notes Rozenstruik has the worst striking defense in the heavyweight division (39%) and a negative strike differential, while Sakai has higher volume and a positive differential. He believes Sakai has a good chin and can outwork Rozenstruik over five rounds, possibly getting a late finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power but thinks Sakai is the better fighter.

Cody leans toward Sakai, noting Rozenstruik's tendency to be tentative and take too long to get going. He points out that Sakai has fast hands and good movement, and if he can improve his cardio from the Overeem fight, he could win early rounds. Cody also mentions that Rozenstruik's power is a threat but Sakai is durable. He suggests the over on rounds and that Sakai could win a decision if he doesn't fade.

Daniel favors Sakai because he believes Sakai will be the one moving forward with more volume and a more well-rounded game. He notes that Sakai has a methodical Muay Thai style and good output, while Rozenstruik relies heavily on counter-fighting and one-punch knockout power. Daniel points out that Rozenstruik has been down on scorecards before (e.g., the Overeem fight) and that Sakai is the better round winner. He also mentions that Sakai has a good chin and can take a shot, making it hard for Rozenstruik to land a clean counter. Daniel predicts Sakai will win a decision or possibly by outworking Rozenstruik over five rounds.

Rozenstruik is a one-dimensional knockout artist who is tentative against longer fighters. Sakai has better volume and can use clinch work and takedowns to neutralize Rozenstruik's power. Sakai will win a decision.

Paul picks Sakai as a slight underdog, citing Sakai's fast hands and movement for a heavyweight, and his volume punching. He notes Sakai's cardio failed against Overeem but hopes he has improved. Paul is hesitant because Rozenstruik has power and five-round experience, but he can't get behind Rozenstruik's low volume and slow starts. He suggests the fight starts round three as a prop.

The Guru picks Augusto Sakai, expressing frustration with Rozenstruik's hesitancy and lack of urgency, especially in the Cyril Gane fight. He notes Sakai's good chin, pressure, and ability to mix kicks. He compares their fights against Overeem: Sakai was winning early before gassing, while Rozenstruik was dominated. He predicts Sakai will walk Rozenstruik down, pressure him against the cage, and get a second-round TKO via ground and pound.

Big Brady thinks Tybura is the better fighter with more ways to win, including higher output on the feet and a superior ground game. He notes Harris has 100% finish rate by KO but poor cardio and a weak ground game. He believes Tybura can survive the early storm, take Harris down as he tires, and get a late finish. He predicts a third-round TKO for Tybura.

Cody picks Tybura, agreeing with Paul. He notes Tybura's momentum and that Harris is hittable and has cardio issues. Cody expects Tybura to use body kicks and takedowns to wear Harris down. He mentions Harris's power is a threat but Tybura's chin has held up recently. Cody also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Daniel picks Tybura despite wanting to see Harris win. He notes that Tybura is in the best point of his career, has more ways to win (takedowns, clinch, grinding), and can mix in wrestling to tire Harris out. Daniel acknowledges Harris's first-round knockout power but believes if Harris doesn't finish early, Tybura will take over with his grappling and pressure. He also mentions that Tybura has been hurt in the first round before but has shown resilience. Daniel hopes he is wrong and would love to see Harris have his moment, but objectively he favors Tybura.

Harris is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Tybura has good body work and grappling. If Tybura survives the first round, he will take over and finish Harris in the second or third.

Paul picks Tybura, noting his recent momentum and wrestling advantage. He expects Tybura to weather Harris's early power, then take over as Harris fades. Paul highlights Tybura's body work and takedowns, similar to the Greg Hardy fight. He acknowledges Harris's one-round KO power but believes Tybura can survive and win.

The Guru picks Marcin Tybura, highlighting Harris's cardio issues shown in losses to Overeem and Volkov. He believes Tybura can survive Harris's early flurries and then take over with grappling as Harris gasses. He predicts Tybura will win by TKO in the second round via ground and pound, noting Tybura has improved defensively after previous KO losses.

Big Brady acknowledges Dolidze has zero fight IQ and is frustrating to bet on, but thinks stylistically this is a great matchup. He notes Dolidze has a significant size and reach advantage, and Staropoli is moving up a weight class with poor takedown defense (57%). He believes Dolidze will get takedowns and win a decision, though he warns against betting due to Dolidze's tendency to make mistakes.

Cody does not make a clear pick, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Dolidze's low volume and Staropoli's durability but is unsure. He mentions Staropoli's takedown defense issues but also Dolidze's poor fight IQ. He leans toward a pass rather than a bet.

Daniel picks Dolidze by close decision, citing Dolidze's positional grappling and clinch work as the difference. He notes that Dolidze has heavy punches, decent takedowns, and a good leg lock game, but also plays around too much and has a questionable gas tank. Daniel acknowledges Staropoli's edge on the feet and power, and that Staropoli might look better at 185. He sees this as a close fight and is not confident in his pick, expecting Dolidze to win via clinch exchanges and maybe a split decision.

Staropoli is a flashy striker with good cardio, while Dolidze has poor fight IQ and questionable cardio. Staropoli should out-strike him on the feet and win a decision, though Dolidze's size and grappling are concerns.

Paul leans toward Staropoli as a dog, citing his durability and output. He notes Staropoli trains with Charles Oliveira, has good submission defense, and has a solid chin. Paul is concerned about Dolidze's size and grappling but thinks Staropoli can get back up and outpoint him. He also likes the fight going the distance.

The Guru picks Roman Dolidze, noting he has lost faith but thinks Dolidze is too big and strong for Staropoli, who is moving up on short notice. He expects Dolidze to outstrike Staropoli in round one and then cruise with grappling in rounds two and three, winning a decision. He thinks Staropoli lacks the cardio to come back.

Big Brady questions whether Ponzinibbio is the same fighter after a long layoff and poor performance against Li Jingliang, where he looked hesitant and was outlanded. He notes Baeza is on the rise, improving each fight, though his competition has been weak. He believes Baeza hits hard and can knock out Ponzinibbio, who has been knocked out twice before. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Baeza by KO.

Cody picks Ponzinibbio as a dog, citing his experience and higher level of competition. He notes Baeza's striking is one-at-a-time and he hasn't faced anyone like Ponzinibbio. Cody is hesitant because Ponzinibbio looked bad against Li and has injury history, but he gives him one more chance. He thinks Ponzinibbio's physical strength and experience will be enough.

Daniel picks Baeza because he believes Ponzinibbio may never be the same after his health issues and three-year layoff. He notes that Baeza is a special prospect with big power, good left hook, calf kicks, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, training with Colby Covington. Daniel points out that Ponzinibbio looked slow and hesitant in his last fight against Li Jingliang, and his defensive flaws are now more exposed. He acknowledges that Ponzinibbio could look better with the ring rust gone, but the uncertainty leads him to favor Baeza, predicting a knockout.

Paul leans toward Baeza, citing Ponzinibbio's long layoff and poor performance against Jingliang Li. He notes Ponzinibbio's suspect chin and low hands. Paul thinks Baeza's youth and power could be key, but acknowledges Ponzinibbio's experience. He is not confident and calls it a lean.

The Guru picks Miguel Baeza, citing Ponzinibbio's long layoff due to injuries and his recent KO loss to Li Jingliang. He thinks Baeza has improved greatly, with good grappling, submissions, and striking IQ. He predicts Baeza will rock Ponzinibbio and finish by TKO in the first round, noting Ponzinibbio made technical mistakes against Li.

Big Brady sees many red flags in Todorović's striking defense (45%) and notes he fights with his hands down and chin up. He points out Todorović was knocked out by Punahele Soriano after getting clipped repeatedly. He believes Rodrigues hits very hard and will knock Todorović out, likely in the first round. He acknowledges both have poor defense but favors Rodrigues' power.

Cody picks Dusko but is hesitant, noting his poor defense and tendency to get hit. He thinks Dusko's output and cardio could win if he survives the first round. Cody also mentions Gregory Rodrigues' BJJ background but notes he prefers striking. He likes the under 1.5 rounds as a live bet opportunity.

Daniel leans Todorović due to his UFC experience and full camp, but acknowledges the fight could go either way. He praises Todorović's boxing in the pocket, ground and pound, and athleticism, but criticizes his habit of fighting with his hands down and relying on head movement. Daniel notes that Gregory Rodrigues hits hard and has good jiu-jitsu, but questions his cardio and competition level. He expects a close fight, possibly a split decision, and is not confident enough to bet on Todorović at chalk.

Paul picks Dusko but is hesitant due to both fighters' suspect chins. He notes Dusko's output and cardio but worries about his durability after the Soriano knockout. Paul thinks Dusko can win if he survives the early exchanges. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds.

The Guru picks Duško Todorović but expresses worry about his defensive flaws, particularly the way he rears his head back. He thinks Gregory Rodrigues hasn't fought good competition and lost to Jordan Williams on the contender series. He believes Todorović will wear Rodrigues down and finish by TKO in the second round, but acknowledges a chance Rodrigues catches him early due to Todorović's weird striking defense.

Big Brady is confident in De La Rosa, citing her wrestling background and BJJ black belt. He notes Lipski has poor takedown defense (45%) and was dominated on the mat by Antonina Shevchenko, a striker. He believes De La Rosa will take Lipski down at will and submit her, as 75% of her wins are by submission. He is surprised by public betting favoring Lipski.

Cody picks De La Rosa, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lipski's takedown defense issues and that De La Rosa has been scoring takedowns in recent fights. Cody thinks De La Rosa's wrestling will be the difference. He is confident but notes the price is steep.

Daniel picks Montana De La Rosa due to her massive edge on the ground, noting that Lipski has a huge hole in her ground game and lacks toughness. He acknowledges that Montana's stand-up is not impressive and she often hangs on for dear life, but believes she will get on top, take the back, and ground-and-pound for a finish. Daniel is uncomfortable with the -300 price but still picks Montana to win via submission or TKO on the mat.

De La Rosa has superior wrestling and takedown defense. Lipski has poor takedown defense and is a fish out of water on the ground. De La Rosa will grind out a decision or possibly get a late finish.

Paul picks De La Rosa, citing her wrestling base and takedown ability. He notes Lipski's poor takedown defense and that De La Rosa has been improving. Paul thinks De La Rosa can get the fight to the ground and control it. He acknowledges the price is high but sees a clear path to victory.

The Guru picks Montana De La Rosa, citing her size, youth, and experience against better competition. He thinks she has more options than Ariane Lipski, with good cardio, grappling, and stand-up. He expects a close fight but believes De La Rosa will win a 29-28 decision by grinding against the cage and landing total strikes.

Big Brady thinks the line is off and Latifi has a clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Boser's 100% takedown defense is untested against real wrestlers, and regional tape shows Boser being taken down and controlled. He points out Latifi took down Derrick Lewis three times and controlled him for nine minutes. He is not impressed with Boser's last performance against Arlovski and predicts Latifi wins by decision.

Cody leans toward Latifi, agreeing with Paul. He notes Boser has not faced a wrestler like Latifi and that Latifi's takedowns could be key. Cody is concerned about Latifi's age and recent losses but sees value. He calls it a dogger pass but is tempted.

Daniel picks Boser but is not confident due to unknown grappling defense. He notes that Boser is a natural heavyweight with twice the output and better point fighting, but if Latifi pins him against the fence or mixes in takedowns, Boser could be exploited. Daniel admits he hasn't seen Boser tested in grappling recently, so the pick is tentative. He expects Boser to outpoint Latifi if the fight stays at range, but acknowledges Latifi's power and clinch work could be problematic.

Boser has good striking and volume, but his takedown defense is a question mark. Latifi will try to grapple, but Boser's cardio and movement should allow him to win a decision if he can stay standing.

Paul picks Latifi as a dog, citing his takedown ability and Boser's lack of wrestling defense. He notes Latifi took down Derrick Lewis and thinks he can do the same to Boser. Paul is concerned about Latifi's age and recent form but sees value at +170. He already bet Latifi at +180.

The Guru picks Ilir Latifi as an underdog, believing his grappling will be too much for Tanner Boser. He notes Latifi picked up Derrick Lewis and dunked him, so he expects similar success against Boser. He predicts Latifi will control the fight with takedowns and top control, winning a 30-27 unanimous decision.

Big Brady expects a low-volume, boring fight likely going to decision. He notes Trinaldo is 42 with a great chin but poor cardio, while Salikhov has flashier strikes and slightly more volume. He acknowledges Salikhov has struggled with grapplers in the past but thinks Trinaldo lacks the cardio to implement a ground game. He predicts Salikhov wins a boring decision, with a possible late finish if Trinaldo gasses.

Cody picks Trinaldo, agreeing with Paul. He notes Salikhov's takedown defense issues and Trinaldo's grappling advantage. Cody thinks Trinaldo's cardio is overblown and that he can win via takedowns and top control. He sees great value at +210.

Daniel picks Salikhov via second-round knockout, citing his sharp counter-striking, accuracy, and improving takedown defense. He notes that Trinaldo is 42 and only has one round of wrestling in him, as seen in his last fight. Daniel believes Trinaldo will slow down and get countered by Salikhov's spinning attacks and straight punches. He respects Trinaldo but thinks father time is undefeated, and that Salikhov's distance management and power will be too much.

Trinaldo is durable, never knocked out, and can mix in takedowns. Salikhov is low-output and overvalued due to the 'Russian tax'. This fight will be close and go to decision, with Trinaldo having the edge.

Paul picks Trinaldo as a dog, citing his experience and well-rounded skills. He notes Salikhov's takedown defense issues and that Trinaldo has a path via grappling. Paul thinks the odds are too high for a fighter of Trinaldo's caliber. He already bet Trinaldo at +210.

The Guru picks Muslim Salikhov, expecting a striking stalemate but believing Salikhov will be too strong in grappling and more technical on the feet. He thinks Salikhov will give Trinaldo a rude awakening to welterweight, being bigger and faster. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision in a somewhat boring fight.

Big Brady thinks the line is too wide but favors Amirkhani as the better fighter in every area, especially grappling. He notes Kirk is on short notice and gassed in his last fight after a good first round. He believes Amirkhani will get takedowns and win a decision, though he doesn't expect a submission. He considers the skill sets similar but Amirkhani more skilled by a decent margin.

Cody picks Kirk, agreeing with Paul. He notes Amirkhani's striking deficiencies and that Kirk is a better striker. Cody thinks Kirk's grappling is good enough to avoid submissions. He sees value in the dog and suggests live betting after the first round.

Daniel picks Kirk as a plus-220 underdog, believing Kirk can stuff takedowns and win the boxing exchanges. He notes that Kirk trains at Fight Ready with Henry Cejudo and has improved since his Contender Series loss. Daniel acknowledges Amirkhani's experience and takedown game, but points out that Amirkhani has been dropped multiple times and has questionable cardio. He thinks Kirk's striking is better and if he can avoid gassing, he can win a decision or even get a finish. Daniel is going out on a limb but likes the dog.

Kirk has a striking advantage and a BJJ black belt to defend submissions. Amirkhani fades after the first round and has poor striking. Kirk will survive the early grappling and win rounds two and three on the feet.

Paul picks Kirk as a dog, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Amirkhani's low volume and reliance on early submissions. Paul thinks Kirk can survive the first round and then outpoint Amirkhani. He sees value at +205.

The Guru picks Makwan Amirkhani, noting that Kirk is on short notice and lacks the cardio or early power to stop Amirkhani's takedowns. He references Amirkhani's success getting takedowns on Edson Barboza and Shane Burgos. He predicts Amirkhani will control the first two rounds and win a 29-28 decision, though Kirk might have a good third round.

Big Brady is very confident in Mason Jones, calling him the biggest favorite on the card for a reason. He notes Jones is well-rounded with great striking and a black belt in BJJ, while Patrick is 37, has poor striking defense, and gets wobbled by every shot. He believes Jones will win the striking exchanges by a mile and predicts a knockout, as Patrick's chin is not there.

Cody picks Jones confidently, noting his durability and improvement. He thinks Jones will stop Patrick's takedowns and win on the feet. Cody sees Jones as one of the safer favorites on the card.

Daniel picks Mason Jones to finish the fight, likely by body shot knockout in the second or third round. He notes that Alan Patrick is almost 40, has slowed down, and his athleticism has diminished. Daniel points out that Patrick's takedown defense and get-up game have declined, and he cannot keep up with Jones's pace. He praises Jones's volume, calf kicks, and durability, and believes Jones will overwhelm Patrick and eventually land a fight-ending body shot.

Patrick is one-dimensional and relies on takedowns, but Jones has good takedown defense and get-up ability. Jones has power and will finish Patrick, likely by TKO.

Paul picks Jones confidently, citing his youth, momentum, and well-rounded skills. He notes Patrick's one-dimensional wrestling and inability to get takedowns against better competition. Paul thinks Jones will stuff takedowns and win on the feet. He sees Jones as a safe parlay piece.

The Guru picks Mason Jones, believing Alan Patrick is past his prime and lacks cardio. He thinks Jones is younger, hungrier, and better in all areas, with good jiu-jitsu to neutralize Patrick's grappling. He predicts a third-round TKO via knees against the cage after Patrick fades, though he notes risky moments early where Patrick might get a takedown.

Big Brady sees Fiorot as a phenomenal striker with power and volume, though her level of competition is low. He notes Ricci is hittable with 53% striking defense and negative strike differential. He doubts Ricci can take Fiorot down or hold her down, citing Ricci's poor takedown accuracy (18%) and Fiorot's strong takedown defense and get-up game. He predicts Fiorot wins by decision, calling it a big test she will pass.

Cody picks Fiorot, noting her diverse striking and improvements in grappling. He thinks her size and strength will be too much for Ricci, who is moving up on short notice. Cody expects Fiorot to win comfortably.

Daniel picks Fiorot to win by knockout, specifically a body kick knockout. He notes that Fiorot is much bigger (5'7" vs 5'1"), physical, has nasty kicks, and improving takedown defense. He believes Ricci is too small and that Fiorot will be able to keep the fight standing and land her strikes. Daniel is confident Fiorot will steamroll Ricci and get a finish.

Fiorot is bigger, stronger, and a better striker. Ricci is on short notice and moving up in weight. Fiorot should keep the fight standing and win by decision or TKO.

Paul picks Fiorot confidently, citing her striking and size advantage. He notes Ricci is a natural strawweight taking the fight on short notice. Paul thinks Fiorot's kicks and clinch will be too much. He expects Fiorot to be a heavy favorite.

The Guru picks Manon Fiorot, praising her striking and grappling. He notes she has finishes in later rounds, which he finds impressive for a French fighter. He believes she is arguably undefeated (he thought she beat Leah McCourt). He predicts a TKO in round 1 or 2 against Marina Moroz (note: transcript says 'marina marazz' but likely refers to Tabatha Ricci's opponent; however, the fight is Fiorot vs Ricci, so the pick is for Fiorot).

Big Brady thinks the line is off and the fight should be a pick'em. He notes Woodson has a big reach advantage but Zalal has a strong ground game, averaging 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. He points out Woodson's takedown defense is inflated by facing poor wrestlers, and that Terence McKinney had success controlling Woodson on the mat. He believes if Zalal mixes in takedowns he can win a decision, as Zalal is not a finisher.

Cody picks Woodson, noting his size and reach. He thinks Zalal's takedowns won't be effective and that Woodson will outpoint him. Cody likes Woodson by decision as a prop.

Daniel picks Woodson, believing he has cleaner hands and more output. He notes that Woodson's length (6'2", 79" reach) will be a problem for Zalal, and that Zalal is a jack-of-all-trades without a standout skill. Daniel acknowledges Zalal's smarts and calf kicks, but thinks Woodson will pick him apart on the feet and avoid takedowns. He expects Woodson to win a decision, possibly a split, but is confident in his striking advantage.

Woodson has superior boxing and range, and he gets up quickly if taken down. Zalal's takedowns won't keep him down, and Woodson will out-strike him for a decision win.

Paul picks Woodson, citing his reach and boxing advantage. He notes Zalal's low output and reliance on takedowns, which Woodson can defend. Paul thinks Woodson will win a decision. He likes Woodson by decision as a prop.

The Guru picks Sean Woodson, emphasizing his significant reach advantage (6'2" with 78-inch reach at featherweight). He believes Woodson will keep Zalal at range and pick him apart for three rounds, similar to how Sung Woo Choi did. He notes Zalal's tendency to take fights too frequently without enough time to improve, and thinks Zalal's two-fight losing streak may lead to a cut. He predicts a unanimous decision with Woodson outlanding Zalal every round.

Big Brady struggles with this fight, calling it a tough call. He notes that Jordan Leavitt's striking is poor and his takedowns are not set up well, but when Leavitt gets on top he looks good. He acknowledges Claudio Puelles is a brown belt and may have improved training at Sanford MMA, but ultimately favors Leavitt's grappling on the mat. He says he will have zero action on this fight due to the line being too wide.

Cody picks Leavitt, noting his grappling advantage and Puelles' long layoff. He thinks Leavitt's jiu-jitsu will be too much. Cody is confident but notes the price is high.

Daniel picks Leavitt via close decision, citing his superior ground game and transitions. He notes that Puelles has improved and trains at Sanford MMA, but Leavitt's jiu-jitsu is a step ahead in scrambles. Daniel believes Leavitt will get top control and win rounds, possibly by submission if Puelles makes a mistake. He acknowledges Puelles could survive and grind out a win, but favors Leavitt's experience and grappling edge.

I'm not sold on Jordan Leavitt; he's one-dimensional with poor striking. Puelles has a striking advantage and can nullify Leavitt's grappling. I expect Puelles to win, possibly by knockout or decision.

Paul picks Leavitt confidently, citing his superior grappling and youth. He notes Puelles has been out for three years and looked poor in the UFC. Paul thinks Leavitt will dictate where the fight goes and win via submission or decision.

The Guru picks Jordan Leavitt, citing his nasty jiu-jitsu transitions and grinding style. He notes that lesser grapplers have had success against Puelles on the ground, referencing the Felipe Silva fight where Silva controlled Puelles before getting caught. He believes Leavitt's grappling will be too much and predicts a late first-round arm triangle submission.