Santiago Ponzinibbio

Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez, expecting him to be the cleaner striker and apply forward pressure. He notes that Ponzinibbio tends to get busted up and that Rodriguez can take over after the first round. He also mentions a potential over 1.5 rounds bet if available.

Big Brady leans slightly toward Daniel Rodriguez in a close fight between two aging fighters. He notes that Ponzinibbio's durability is questionable, as he wobbles when hit, while Rodriguez has better volume and durability at this stage. However, both are 38 and have looked rough recently. Brady expects a competitive fight that goes the distance, with judges likely favoring Rodriguez based on optics.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Ponzinibbio's power and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez is a slow starter and a slow mover, making it unlikely he can hurt Ponzinibbio consistently. Connor points out that Ponzinibbio has retained his ability to knock people out even when fights are going poorly, while Rodriguez's offense has diminished.

Ponzinibbio has slowed and his durability is a concern, but Rodriguez doesn't have the power to exploit that. Ponzinibbio will dictate the pace, land more impactful shots, and win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, describing him as a lifelong martial artist who is more well-rounded than Daniel Rodriguez, whom he calls a 'street dude with hands.' He believes Ponzinibbio will win a decision by getting takedowns at the end of rounds to sway judges. He notes that Rodriguez has declined due to injuries and poor grappling decisions.

Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, citing his speed, cleaner striking, and better cardio. He notes that Carlston Harris has more power and aggressive grappling, but believes Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure will win. He expresses concern about Ponzinibbio's commentating job potentially distracting him, but still picks him. He mentions Ponzinibbio was an underdog but may flip to favorite.

Big Brady likes Harris's grappling advantage, noting his elite submission game and front chokes. He thinks Ponzinibbio's chin is declining, having been knocked out by the Leech and Kevin Holland. He believes Harris has more ways to win, either by submission or a club-and-sub. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop, as both guys have poor durability and can finish each other.

Cody picks Ponzinibbio despite his recent 2-5 record, arguing that Harris is also flawed with poor takedown accuracy and stiff striking. He believes Ponzinibbio's veteran savvy, range, and power will allow him to land first. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a knockout.

Connor picks Ponzinibbio because Harris is fundamentally bad at MMA, relying on wild aggression and grappling without structure. Ponzinibbio is a good defensive wrestler and strong in the clinch, and his straight punches and footwork make him difficult to clinch against. While Ponzinibbio is older and slower, he still has a process and toughness, and his losses have come against sharp strikers, not wild punchers like Harris. Connor notes that if Ponzinibbio loses, it would be his worst loss since 2011.

Daniel notes both fighters are washed up and chinny, but historically Ponzinibbio was one fight away from a title shot and has better credentials. He thinks Ponzinibbio's experience and jab/straight right will be enough, though he's not confident. He mentions Harris has dangerous front chokes but Ponzinibbio rarely shoots. He picks Ponzinibbio to win and retire.

Lucrative James gives a lean toward Santiago Ponzinibbio, but admits he hasn't done extensive research. He believes Ponzinibbio is the better striker and can defend takedowns, while Harris's best chance is an early knockout. He predicts a decision win for Ponzinibbio in a lackluster fight. He cautions that this is an early read and he may not bet it.

Ponzinibbio's technical striking should allow him to pick apart Harris and eventually find a knockout, but he must be wary of Harris's big power and reckless swinging. As long as Ponzinibbio's speed hasn't diminished, he should find openings to put Harris away.

Paul leans toward Harris as a slight plus-money underdog, citing Ponzinibbio's age and damage absorbed. He notes Harris's crafty submission game and power, but admits both are flawed. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet rather than the moneyline.

The Guru picks Ponzinibbio despite questioning why this is a co-main event. He notes Ponzinibbio's split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov and leg kicks against Holland, and his win over Alex Morono. He contrasts Harris's inactivity, age (37), and KO loss to Chaos Williams. He acknowledges Ponzinibbio's recent chinny reputation but thinks he's good enough to beat Harris.

Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, believing he will dominate the striking exchanges and that Muslim Salikhov will fade at elevation. He notes that both fighters are older and coming off losses, but Ponzinibbio's volume and range management should be key. He thinks the odds are too wide for a favorite and would only bet if the line moves to around -120.

Cody picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant, noting both fighters are past their prime and have cardio issues at altitude. He thinks Ponzinibbio's speed and volume will outwork Salikhov, but fears Salikhov could land a big shot late. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Daniel Vreeland picks Muslim Salikhov to upset Santiago Ponzinibbio. He believes Ponzinibbio has never been the same after a severe bacterial infection, losing speed and durability. He notes that both fighters are past their primes, but at the odds, he prefers the underdog Salikhov. He mentions that Ponzinibbio's recent performances have been poor, including a life-and-death fight with Miguel Baeza and knockout losses. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and goes with Salikhov.

Santiago Ponzinibbio is slightly favored. He is a bit faster and slicker with his shots. Durability is shaky on both sides, but Ponzinibbio's speed should allow him to land the first big shot and put Salikhov away. The line has dropped from -220 to -180, still a bit wide.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland but is avoiding bets because he wants to see how Holland looks after the Wonder Boy loss. He notes that Holland is a good grappler and accurate striker, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Holland should win, but Ponzinibbio is a good technical striker who could make it tough.

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, citing Holland's durability and Ponzinibbio's recent decline. He notes that Ponzinibbio was hurt multiple times by Alex Morono and knocked out by Li Jingliang. He predicts a second-round KO, but admits he doesn't fully trust Holland due to his low fight IQ.

Cody also picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant. He notes Holland's poor decision-making and the respect books give him, making the line too high. Cody points out Ponzinibbio's durability questions and age but sees value at +200. He mentions that Ponzinibbio is fighting in his backyard in Florida and that Holland's minus 235 price is disrespectful. Cody is not sure if he'll bet it but makes the pick for the show.

Connor picks Holland because Ponzinibbio has become a slow starter who gets hurt in every fight. Holland is fast, hits hard, and is fearless, so he will likely land a big shot early. Ponzinibbio may rally later, but his early deficits are too large to overcome. Connor notes that Holland's defense has deteriorated at welterweight, but his durability and confidence make him a tough out. He also mentions that Ponzinibbio's fragility is the real concern, as he gets hurt basically every fight now.

Jacob is confident in Kevin Holland, noting that the UFC gave him a winnable fight. He points out that Holland put Wonder Boy on skates in the first round, and if he lands those shots on Ponzinibbio, he will knock him out. He believes Holland is a better, longer, and more powerful striker, and will get the job done.

Holland has speed and power but is coming off a hand injury and fighting compromised. Ponzinibbio is slower post-layoff but still has veteran savvy and power. I think Holland's speed and power advantage will find Ponzinibbio's chin, but the hand injury is a major red flag. I prefer the fight doesn't go to decision prop over betting Holland straight.

Paul takes Ponzinibbio as a plus-money underdog, though hesitantly. He notes Ponzinibbio is always competitive against top welterweights, with close split decisions against Jeff Neal and Michel Pereira. Paul criticizes Kevin Holland's poor fight IQ, referencing the Stephen Thompson fight where Holland let him up. He believes Ponzinibbio, training in Florida with the crowd behind him, has a real chance. However, he acknowledges Ponzinibbio is 36 and may have declined.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round TKO via straight right hand. He expects Ponzinibbio to have success early with leg kicks and jabs, but Holland will time a right hand as Ponzinibbio throws a kick, rocking him badly. He predicts Holland will finish with ground and pound in round two around the three-minute mark.

Angelo picks Ponzinibbio, noting his clean striking, range control, and volume. He warns that Ponzinibbio must avoid Lawler's power and treat him with respect. He believes Ponzinibbio can get a finish if he maintains a high pace like Barbarena did. He acknowledges Lawler is dangerous even at 40 but thinks Ponzinibbio's technical approach will win.

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, but is not confident in the price. He notes Ponzinibbio has lost a step but still competes at a high level, while Morono is a short-notice replacement. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Ponzinibbio outpointing Morono.

Cody picks Ponzinibbio, citing his volume striking, footwork, and ability to absorb damage. He notes Ponzinibbio has been competitive against high-level guys despite recent split decision losses. He thinks Morono is a 50/50 fighter who fights to his opponent's level and is taking the fight on short notice. He expects Ponzinibbio to win by decision.

Connor picks Ponzinibbio, citing his full camp, powerful straight punches, and low kicks. He notes Morono is a short-notice replacement and lacks the athleticism to handle Ponzinibbio's sustained offense. Connor believes Ponzinibbio's persistence and power will overwhelm Morono, who tends to put himself in danger.

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio but with low confidence due to Ponzinibbio's diminished form after a health scare. He praises Ponzinibbio's prime style: stalking footwork, calf kicks, and a beautiful straight right. However, he notes Ponzinibbio is a step slower now and has gone 1-3 in his last four. Levi acknowledges Morono's toughness and awkward brawling style, but believes Ponzinibbio's cleaner striking and experience should carry him. He warns not to be surprised if Morono wins.

Lock likes Ponzinibbio to win, believing he will torch Morono from the jump and eventually knock him out. He sees Morono as a plodding forward fighter whose durability holds up some nights but not against Ponzinibbio's striking. From a long-term perspective, he thinks Ponzinibbio will get a decent bump but will lose against higher-level competition. He recommends a pump and dump on Ponzinibbio this weekend.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ponzinibbio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has been preparing for this fight for a long time while Morono is on short notice. He thinks the minus 180 line is fair and is surprised it's not higher given the circumstances. He sees Ponzinibbio's experience and preparation as key factors.

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Robbie Lawler (note: transcript says Lawler but fight is Ponzinibbio vs Morono; likely error). He believes Ponzinibbio will jab Lawler's face off and win by TKO in round two or three. He criticizes Lawler's age and recent performances, and thinks Ponzinibbio's range striking will be too much.

Angelo picks Michel Pereira because he believes Pereira is better everywhere: more power, versatility, 100% takedown defense, and improved cardio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has good range control but Pereira's power and technique will overcome that. He expects Pereira to win a decision, his fourth in five fights.

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, favoring his pressure style and superior cardio. He notes Ponzinibbio throws combinations and leg kicks, while Pereira prefers to stick on the outside and may struggle with pressure. He expects Ponzinibbio to break Pereira as the fight goes on and win a close decision.

Cody leans Pereira because he believes Ponzinibbio hasn't looked the same since his eye injury, citing close fights with Miguel Baeza and Geoff Neal where he was outlanded in significant strikes. He notes Pereira has improved his cardio and fight IQ, mixing in takedowns and pacing himself. He thinks Pereira's chin is better and that he can land a big shot or wrestle, making him the fresher fighter.

The host discusses the fight but does not make a clear pick. He notes that Pereira is a bigger welterweight and that Ponzinibbio is a legitimate 170-pounder. He questions whether Pereira's size will be a factor and mentions that Ponzinibbio's takedown defense should be good enough. He does not express a preference for either fighter.

Paul does not give a clear pick for this fight. He says the line is perfectly accurate and both guys can win. He mentions Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure but notes he hasn't looked the same since his injury. He does not express a preference.

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to Neal's recent DUI and gun possession arrest. He notes that Neal has a power advantage and reach advantage over Ponzinibbio, who is 35 and coming off a layoff and a knockout loss. However, Neal's preparation is a major concern. Brady says if Neal shows up focused, he has a good chance, but he is not sure the fight will even happen.

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win a war of attrition. He notes that both fighters nearly died from medical issues, but Ponzinibbio looked better in his last fight against Miguel Baeza, shaking off rust. Levi questions whether Geoff Neal has recovered from his sepsis and heart failure, citing poor performances against Wonderboy and Neil Magny. He believes Ponzinibbio's jab, straight right, calf kicks, and takedown defense will be too much. Levi expects Ponzinibbio to be more aggressive and meaner.

Neal is the more technical striker and will counter Ponzinibbio's aggressive pressure effectively. Ponzinibbio has defensive flaws and is hittable, especially against a counter-striker. Neal's straight right and speed should find the mark, and a knockout is possible. The underdog odds provide value.

Big Brady questions whether Ponzinibbio is the same fighter after a long layoff and poor performance against Li Jingliang, where he looked hesitant and was outlanded. He notes Baeza is on the rise, improving each fight, though his competition has been weak. He believes Baeza hits hard and can knock out Ponzinibbio, who has been knocked out twice before. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Baeza by KO.

Cody picks Ponzinibbio as a dog, citing his experience and higher level of competition. He notes Baeza's striking is one-at-a-time and he hasn't faced anyone like Ponzinibbio. Cody is hesitant because Ponzinibbio looked bad against Li and has injury history, but he gives him one more chance. He thinks Ponzinibbio's physical strength and experience will be enough.

Daniel picks Baeza because he believes Ponzinibbio may never be the same after his health issues and three-year layoff. He notes that Baeza is a special prospect with big power, good left hook, calf kicks, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, training with Colby Covington. Daniel points out that Ponzinibbio looked slow and hesitant in his last fight against Li Jingliang, and his defensive flaws are now more exposed. He acknowledges that Ponzinibbio could look better with the ring rust gone, but the uncertainty leads him to favor Baeza, predicting a knockout.

Paul leans toward Baeza, citing Ponzinibbio's long layoff and poor performance against Jingliang Li. He notes Ponzinibbio's suspect chin and low hands. Paul thinks Baeza's youth and power could be key, but acknowledges Ponzinibbio's experience. He is not confident and calls it a lean.

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, but is hesitant due to the long layoff and injuries. He thinks Ponzinibbio is the much better fighter and will throw more output. He notes that Li has never been knocked out but has been knocked down several times. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a good play but says he won't touch it personally. He finds the -275 line a bit steep.

Daniel Levi leans Santiago Ponzinibbio but conditions his pick on how Ponz looks at weigh-ins due to his serious health layoff. He praises Ponz's calf kicks, straight right, and cardio, and notes Li Jingliang has been knocked down five times. He expects Ponz to set up the straight right with calf kicks, but acknowledges Li's durability and power.

Ponzinibbio is the more educated striker with a great kicking game, especially leg kicks, which he used to beat Neil Magny. However, he is coming off a two-year layoff due to a knee infection, which raises durability and ring rust concerns. Li Jingliang has power and durability, but his striking is less technical. The best bet is the over 1.5 rounds, as both fighters are durable and have not been finished recently. Ponzinibbio should win a decision if he shows up at 50% of his former self.