Career Averages - Montana De La Rosa
Career Averages - Ariane da Silva
Montana De La Rosa
Ariane da Silva
Montana De La Rosa - Fight History
Angelo picks Luana Carolina, citing her superior striking and solid takedown defense (74%). He believes she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Montana De La Rosa, who relies on wrestling. He notes that Carolina is used to opponents trying to take her down and sees her as a solid bet, possibly worth a stab.
Big Brady leans toward Luana Carolina, impressed by her takedown defense. He notes that Montana De La Rosa will try to wrestle, but if she can't get takedowns, Carolina is the better striker. He expects a close split decision.
The host expects De La Rosa's wrestling style to pay off and expose holes in Luana Carolina's game. He looks for De La Rosa to smother her with grappling, possibly opening a submission opportunity, but primarily controlling the fight and winning on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Luana Carolina over Montana De La Rosa. He notes that Montana has had takedowns but hasn't established dominant control, while Luana will win on the feet with more grit and determination. He also mentions a psychological edge: Luana will be jealous of Montana's looks and fight with rage. He predicts a split decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 75 of 152 | 49% | 115 of 201 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 2:08 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 70 of 180 | 38% | 88 of 206 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 52 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:52 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 17 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 31 of 68 | 45% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 37 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:16 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 34 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 75 of 152 | 49% | 37 of 109 | 29 of 31 | 9 of 12 | 58 of 129 | 13 of 16 | 4 of 7 |
| Andrea Lee | 70 of 180 | 38% | 53 of 156 | 12 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 62 of 161 | 5 of 16 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 27 of 50 | 54% | 16 of 38 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 31 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 7 |
| Andrea Lee | 14 of 44 | 31% | 9 of 37 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 36 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 31 of 68 | 45% | 14 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 33 of 81 | 40% | 26 of 72 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Montana De La Rosa | 17 of 34 | 50% | 7 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 23 of 55 | 41% | 18 of 47 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee, noting that Montana De La Rosa is a wrestler but didn't use her wrestling in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He thinks if Montana doesn't commit to takedowns, Andrea will out-strike her. Andrea is a good striker with underrated skills, and her losses are to quality opponents. He is not confident Montana will wrestle, so he goes with Andrea.
Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa with little confidence. He notes that Andrea Lee is on a four-fight losing streak and looks to be declining, while De La Rosa's striking has improved. He expects De La Rosa to get takedowns and control time. He says he is not betting on this fight and advises others to avoid it.
Cody picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has poor ring IQ and does not commit to her wrestling. Lee has improved her takedown defense and has better striking volume. Cody expects Lee to sprawl and brawl, outpointing De La Rosa on the feet. He also likes Lee by decision at plus money.
Daniel picks Lee as the better fighter despite both being on losing streaks. He notes Lee won their first fight and has faced tougher competition, but questions her motivation and slowing speed. He sees Montana as never assertive enough, so he expects Lee to win a split decision.
Jacob leans Andrea Lee, but with low confidence. He notes that both fighters are better than their records suggest. He worries that if Montana commits to wrestling, Andrea could be on her back for 15 minutes. However, he thinks Andrea is the better striker and can defend takedowns with footwork. He expects a close fight and goes with Andrea, but is not confident.
Lee is a skilled striker with an active Jiu-Jitsu game, while De La Rosa relies on grappling but lacks striking. Lee should land strikes and stuff takedowns, and may even catch a submission off her back. However, Lee can be flaky if she gets demoralized. Leaning Lee by submission, but passing on betting due to line movement.
Paul picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has not been dominant with her grappling recently. Lee has better striking and takedown defense. Paul expects Lee to win on volume and outpoint De La Rosa over three rounds.
The Guru picks Andrea Lee because she does damage well and is a more physical specimen with less wasted weight. He thinks her age (35) and lack of children give her anger and aggression, especially in the third round. He notes Montana De La Rosa has a decent grappling game but Lee did better on the feet against Macy Barber. He expects Lee to do better on the feet and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 67 of 204 | 32% | 70 of 209 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 65 of 135 | 48% | 66 of 136 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 19 of 55 | 34% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 23 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 27 of 86 | 31% | 27 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 67 of 204 | 32% | 41 of 172 | 13 of 16 | 13 of 16 | 59 of 184 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 65 of 135 | 48% | 55 of 122 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 58 of 124 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 19 of 55 | 34% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 49 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 19 of 35 | 54% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 21 of 63 | 33% | 10 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 19 of 56 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 38 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 27 of 86 | 31% | 17 of 75 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 79 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 26 of 56 | 46% | 22 of 51 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Montana De La Rosa because she is a very good wrestler with a straightforward game plan of taking opponents down. He notes that JJ Aldrich is decent at everything but great at nothing, and that Aldrich was taken down in her last fight. He also mentions that Montana's losses are to quality fighters like Tatiana Suarez, while Aldrich has had poor performances. He placed a half-unit bet on Montana at +135, noting the line has since moved.
Big Brady leans toward Montana De La Rosa, noting that she has a grappling advantage over JJ Aldrich. He believes De La Rosa's wrestling is solid for the division and that she can control the fight on the ground. He mentions that Aldrich has been taken down by lesser grapplers like Liang Na, so De La Rosa should be able to secure takedowns. However, he admits the fight could be close if De La Rosa cannot get the takedown, and he preferred her at plus money. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks De La Rosa, citing her toughness, wrestling, and ability to pressure. He notes that Aldrich has struggled against grapplers and that De La Rosa's tenacity will be key. He expects De La Rosa to make the fight dirty and win a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa, noting her toughness and improved hands. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich is the cleaner striker but thinks Montana can bully her and take her back. He mentions that the value has shifted to Aldrich now that Montana is favored, but his pure pick is Montana.
Lucrative James sees this as a close fight, likely 29-28 either way. He leans Montana De La Rosa because he has seen JJ Aldrich 'flake' a few times against physical opponents like Erin Blanchfield and Bara. He believes De La Rosa's physicality can cause Aldrich to falter, though he acknowledges it's a toss-up.
Aldrich took this fight on short notice, which suggests she believes she has an edge from training with De La Rosa in the past. She has good takedown defense and superior striking, and should be able to stuff takedowns or work back to her feet. De La Rosa is on a two-fight losing streak and relies on wrestling, but Aldrich has shown she can handle grapplers. Expect Aldrich to land more damage and win by decision.
Paul picks De La Rosa, agreeing with the line movement. He notes that Aldrich has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers, and that De La Rosa's wrestling and heart should be enough. He expects a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldridge. He believes De La Rosa is underrated and notes her decent performance against Macy Barber and competitive rounds with Tatiana Suarez. He points to a common opponent, Ariane Lipski, who finished De La Rosa but later beat Aldridge, suggesting De La Rosa is stronger. He also mentions a slight reach advantage for De La Rosa and describes Aldridge as 'two hit and miss.'
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 37 of 43 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 5:45 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 26 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 11 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 10 of 13 | 76% | 0 of 1 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 7 of 8 | 87% | 0 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Suarez because De La Rosa will let her wrestle. He notes that De La Rosa is a competitive fighter but lacks strategy, and if Suarez is the same fighter, she will do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able. Connor also mentions that De La Rosa's tight pocket boxing style gives opportunities for opponents to get in on her hips, which Suarez can exploit.
Zane picks Suarez, assuming she will look like her old self and dominate with wrestling. He notes that De La Rosa is a classic test fighter who will accept whatever fight her opponent wants, and if Suarez can bring physical dominance, she will win. However, he acknowledges major X-factors: Suarez hasn't fought in almost four years, has neck and knee injuries that could affect her wrestling, and her striking is poor. Still, he believes she will get the takedowns she wants.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 50 of 63 | 79% | 80 of 101 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 7:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 41 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 5:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 25 of 31 | 80% | 34 of 43 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:06 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:22 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 32 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 21 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 50 of 63 | 79% | 31 of 42 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 8 | 40 of 47 | 6 of 8 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 14 of 28 | 50% | 7 of 19 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 25 of 31 | 80% | 14 of 20 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 23 of 27 | 1 of 1 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 18 of 23 | 78% | 11 of 15 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 1 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 9 of 13 | 69% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Maycee Barber but with zero bet, calling it a tough fight with many unknowns. He notes Barber has good striking and improved wrestling, but can break mentally. He says Montana is a pure wrestler who has improved her hands at Elevation. He is normally a sucker for wrestlers but is worried. He says his gut wants to pick Montana, but for now he goes with Barber to defend takedowns and win striking.
Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa to win by decision, citing her grappling advantage and Barber's recent poor striking performances. He notes Barber has looked bad in recent fights, with low striking accuracy and a tendency to punch air. He thinks De La Rosa can mix in takedowns and control the fight. However, he has low confidence and says he will have zero dollars on the fight.
Cody likes Barber at -190, noting her physical strength and improvement. He acknowledges she's a slow starter but believes she can overpower De La Rosa. He points out De La Rosa's poor striking defense and tendency to get hit. He warns it could be a trap line but picks Barber.
The host picks Maycee Barber as his biggest bet of the night at 2 units (-181). He believes Barber is a better striker with better footwork and will be able to get up from takedowns and dish out damage on the feet. He is confident in this pick, calling it his most confident play.
Paul is not playing Barber at -190, calling it a dogger pass situation. He thinks Barber rarely shows up and that De La Rosa could control on the mat. He plans to stay away from a betting perspective unless weigh-ins change his mind.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 66 of 113 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 6:52 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 37 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 4 of 23 | 17% | 22 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 24 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 25 of 32 | 78% | 44 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 29 of 55 | 52% | 28 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 33 |
| Ariane da Silva | 11 of 24 | 45% | 5 of 15 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 4 of 23 | 17% | 3 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Ariane da Silva | 7 of 20 | 35% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 25 of 32 | 78% | 25 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 31 |
| Ariane da Silva | 4 of 4 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady is confident in De La Rosa, citing her wrestling background and BJJ black belt. He notes Lipski has poor takedown defense (45%) and was dominated on the mat by Antonina Shevchenko, a striker. He believes De La Rosa will take Lipski down at will and submit her, as 75% of her wins are by submission. He is surprised by public betting favoring Lipski.
Cody picks De La Rosa, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lipski's takedown defense issues and that De La Rosa has been scoring takedowns in recent fights. Cody thinks De La Rosa's wrestling will be the difference. He is confident but notes the price is steep.
Daniel picks Montana De La Rosa due to her massive edge on the ground, noting that Lipski has a huge hole in her ground game and lacks toughness. He acknowledges that Montana's stand-up is not impressive and she often hangs on for dear life, but believes she will get on top, take the back, and ground-and-pound for a finish. Daniel is uncomfortable with the -300 price but still picks Montana to win via submission or TKO on the mat.
De La Rosa has superior wrestling and takedown defense. Lipski has poor takedown defense and is a fish out of water on the ground. De La Rosa will grind out a decision or possibly get a late finish.
Paul picks De La Rosa, citing her wrestling base and takedown ability. He notes Lipski's poor takedown defense and that De La Rosa has been improving. Paul thinks De La Rosa can get the fight to the ground and control it. He acknowledges the price is high but sees a clear path to victory.
The Guru picks Montana De La Rosa, citing her size, youth, and experience against better competition. He thinks she has more options than Ariane Lipski, with good cardio, grappling, and stand-up. He expects a close fight but believes De La Rosa will win a 29-28 decision by grinding against the cage and landing total strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 30 of 72 | 41% | 107 of 156 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 9:12 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 52 of 80 | 65% | 111 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 27 of 50 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 44 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 45 of 61 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 35 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:01 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 49 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 30 of 72 | 41% | 19 of 56 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 52 of 80 | 65% | 28 of 53 | 22 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 20 of 40 | 29 of 36 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 9 of 32 | 28% | 6 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 17 of 28 | 60% | 6 of 15 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 13 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 11 of 24 | 45% | 7 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 16 of 26 | 61% | 10 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 10 of 16 | 62% | 6 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 19 of 26 | 73% | 12 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The last women’s match of the night comes in the featured fight slot, as two submission specialist flyweights tangle. De La Rosa (11-6, 4-3 UFC) and Bueno Silva (7-1, 2-1 UFC) will undoubtedly look to tap out the other, who combine for 13 subs in their 18 wins, all under the watchful eye of referee Jerin Valel. A touch of gloves shows a sign of respect before the showcase begins. De La Rosa reaches out a jab and gets kicked in the calf, a theme for the evening. The American lets loose a one-two, and she follows with another and lands at the end of a right hand. Silva tries to clinch up, and De La Rosa pushes her off only to get kicked in the face. The clinch ensues again, where De La Rosa attacks a single and has her neck snagged from a defensive guillotine choke. De La Rosa transitions to a double and scores the takedown, but Silva walks her way back up with ease while De La Rosa takes her back. De La Rosa looks to trip her foe down but she cannot land it, and turns it into a single only to find herself in a choke attempt. Silva grabs the fence to stop a takedown, and Valel takes a point as Silva apologizes. Right after they touch gloves, De La Rosa shoots for a takedown in the open cage, and Silva stands her up and knees her foe in the chest several times. De La Rosa kicks the chest a few times, and then fires off a pair of crescent kicks that clip off Silva’s chin. The Brazilian eats a fierce one-two, and she marches into a clinch only to wind up defending a takedown attempt. Silva protects herself with several vicious elbows and knees, and De La Rosa is forced to back away. The American sticks out a jab, and she ducks down to take the fight down. Silva nearly grabs the fence again to stay upright, and De La Rosa looks to Valel. When there is nothing done about it, De La Rosa continues her grind against the cage. Silva turns her about but gets trapped against the fence again until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 De La Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 9-9
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 De La Rosa
Round 2
The two women touch gloves, and De La Rosa reaches out with a pair of punches that land. Silva cracks De La Rosa with a head kick, and the American gathers her thoughts and tries to clinch up as Silva lands again. When Silva presses the pace, De La Rosa sells out for a takedown, only to fall to her back with butterfly hooks. Silva stands up to land a couple right hands, and De La Rosa boots her in the face with an upkick. De La Rosa threatens off her back with a triangle choke setup, but the Brazilian stands up to deliver some long punches to De La Rosa’s face. When Silva stands up, De La Rosa chops at her leg with low kicks on her side until Silva lets her back up. De La Rosa scores a side kick to the face, and she tries to counter an advancing Silva with a left hand. De La Rosa lets fly a head kick, and Silva blocks it but eats a left hand that follows. Silva replies with her own head kick, forcing De La Rosa to shoot in from a distance for a takedown. She gets stuffed, and Silva makes her pay with punches and knees. The clinch that comes from it leads to several nasty knees and elbows from Silva, and De La Rosa redoubles her effort to take the fight down. De La Rosa scoops up the leg and puts Silva on her back, where she takes the Brazilian’s back in a scramble. Silva twists and turns to get flat on her back, and De La Rosa takes full mount as she lands strikes from on top. De La Rosa uses arm-triangle choke control to keep her foe down, leading Silva to roll to her side and get hit in the side of the head. De La Rosa lines up the arm-triangle choke, and Silva has her arm trapped and is absorbing punishment. De La Rosa sets up the arm-triangle choke again, only to bail on it to land punches in mount to conclude the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Round 3
There is a final glove touch, and De La Rosa once more lunges to throw the first strike. Silva sits down on a pair of big head kicks, and they snap the head back but do not hurt De La Rosa. When De La Rosa comes too close, they clinch up, and Silva starts up kneeing the body and unleashing heavy elbows on the inside. De La Rosa bullies her foe into the cage wall for a single leg takedown, but the Brazilian stands her up. The American ties up the leg to try to drag Silva down, and Silva counters with a close-range choke attempt that is unsuccessful. Silva uses elbows to open up De La Rosa’s face, but De La Rosa hits a takedown. Silva springs back up to her feet and tees off on De La Rosa with a few strikes as blood flows from De La Rosa’s nose and face. De La Rosa ties up her adversary on the fence, and her face is busted up from the strikes from the Brazilian. Silva backs away around the fencing to knee De La Rosa once more, and De La Rosa changes levels low for an unsuccessful takedown. Silva cracks De La Rosa with a few sharp elbows, and De La Rosa stays tight and working the body with a few punches, De La Rosa grabs a single leg and still gets elbowed in the face. De La Rosa tries to respond with a few short knees, all while keeping Silva’s left leg in the air. Silva gains space and marches down her opponent, but De La Rosa hits a takedown in the center of the cage. De La Rosa sits down in her opponent’s guard, as there are few seconds left in the fight. Silva throws a few elbows off her back, but De La Rosa drops down punches as the clock hits zero. The scorecards could be all over the map from this grueling fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva (29-27 De La Rosa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva (28-28)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva (29-27 De La Rosa)
The Official Result
Montana De La Rosa vs. Mayra Bueno Silva is ruled a Majority Draw (27-28, 28-28, 28-28)
Big Brady picks the underdog Montana De La Rosa to grind out a decision. He notes that Silva is extremely hittable and flat-footed, absorbing 6.74 significant strikes per minute. He believes De La Rosa can take Silva down at will due to Silva's 71% takedown defense and that De La Rosa has multiple paths to victory: outlanding on the feet or using her wrestling. He acknowledges Silva's danger off her back but notes De La Rosa has only been submitted once in 17 fights. He disagrees with the line, thinking De La Rosa has a good chance.
Daniel Levi picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her significant power and damaging shots. He acknowledges her takedown defense issues but notes improvement in the Marina Moroz fight. He believes Montana De La Rosa's nose bleeds easily and that Bueno Silva's power will be the difference, potentially leading to a decision win by landing more impactful strikes.
De La Rosa has superior wrestling and should be able to take Bueno Silva down repeatedly. Bueno Silva is dangerous off her back with submissions, but De La Rosa has only been submitted by Mackenzie Dern. De La Rosa's cardio and top control are solid, and she has shown improved striking. Expect a decision win via control and ground and pound.
The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva by submission, specifically an armbar in the first round. He highlights her superior submission skills, noting she has multiple armbar wins and a ninja choke in her career. He believes Montana De La Rosa has shown little improvement and will be outclassed on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 82 of 140 | 58% | 91 of 150 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 85 of 215 | 39% | 88 of 220 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 20 of 67 | 29% | 20 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 36 of 54 | 66% | 37 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 34 of 75 | 45% | 34 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 34 of 76 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 82 of 140 | 58% | 57 of 113 | 12 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 80 of 137 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 85 of 215 | 39% | 57 of 177 | 12 of 21 | 16 of 17 | 76 of 202 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 23 of 44 | 52% | 13 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 20 of 67 | 29% | 14 of 61 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 64 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 36 of 54 | 66% | 24 of 41 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 36 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 34 of 75 | 45% | 20 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 33 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 23 of 42 | 54% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 31 of 73 | 42% | 23 of 59 | 3 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 65 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Araújo, citing her striking advantage (4.51 sig strikes/min vs 2.3) and 100% takedown defense. He is concerned about her cardio slowing down, which could allow De La Rosa to take over late. He predicts a decision win for Araújo.
Daniel Levi leans with Viviane Araújo, citing her intensity, speed, and power. He notes that Araújo is more well-rounded and hits harder, but has cardio concerns and a chinny history. He believes if Araújo doesn't get choked out or give up her back, she will win. He acknowledges Montana De La Rosa's improvements and grappling, but feels Araújo's early offense will be decisive.
The host likes De La Rosa as a +150 underdog, citing her wrestling base, top pressure, and improving cardio. He questions Araújo's gas tank and ground game, noting she was controlled by Alexis Davis on the ground. He expects De La Rosa to mix in takedowns and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, stating she is somewhat decent and has lost to better competition (Jessica Eye) compared to Montana De La Rosa's losses. He believes Araújo's training camp and overall skills will lead to a third-round finish by submission or TKO. He dismisses De La Rosa's recent win over Mara Romero Borella as not impressive.
Ariane da Silva - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 63 of 176 | 35% | 65 of 178 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Wang Cong | 1 | 143 of 222 | 64% | 147 of 226 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 17 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Wang Cong | 0 | 46 of 65 | 70% | 48 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 19 of 59 | 32% | 21 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Wang Cong | 1 | 42 of 64 | 65% | 44 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Wang Cong | 0 | 55 of 93 | 59% | 55 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 63 of 176 | 35% | 31 of 121 | 20 of 37 | 12 of 18 | 55 of 164 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 143 of 222 | 64% | 75 of 148 | 28 of 31 | 40 of 43 | 127 of 206 | 13 of 13 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 17 of 41 | 41% | 9 of 29 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 46 of 65 | 70% | 16 of 34 | 12 of 12 | 18 of 19 | 39 of 58 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 19 of 59 | 32% | 11 of 44 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 42 of 64 | 65% | 19 of 39 | 8 of 8 | 15 of 17 | 37 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 27 of 76 | 35% | 11 of 48 | 11 of 20 | 5 of 8 | 24 of 71 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 55 of 93 | 59% | 40 of 75 | 8 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 51 of 89 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Wang Cong but is not fully confident. He acknowledges Ariane Lipski's underrated striking and ability to make it competitive. He thinks Wang's power will add up over time and Lipski will become afraid to engage. He notes the odds are almost 4-to-1 and says he will likely avoid betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Wang Cong, citing her high-level striking and the fact that Ariane da Silva has been finished in five of her losses, four by KO. He thinks da Silva doesn't like getting hit and that Cong can finish her on the feet or by mixing in takedowns, as da Silva's ground game is suspect. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Wang Cong is expected to be more effective with her footwork, distance management, and combinations. She will land more effective damage throughout the fight and chip away at Lipski to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Wang Cong, citing her superior kickboxing, power, and ability to finish. He notes Ariane da Silva has submission skills but lacks power and is reactionary. He predicts Wang Cong wins by TKO in the first round, dominating exchanges. He mentions Wang Cong's only loss was a fluke submission she would win 8 out of 10 times.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 42 of 92 | 45% | 43 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 36 of 84 | 42% | 130 of 218 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 5:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 20 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 83 of 120 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 | |
| 3 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 27 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 42 of 92 | 45% | 26 of 65 | 15 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 41 of 88 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 36 of 84 | 42% | 29 of 76 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 27 of 57 | 47% | 17 of 39 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 3 | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 13 of 46 | 28% | 10 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 17 of 28 | 60% | 15 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 | |
| 3 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 6 of 15 | 40% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 6 of 10 | 60% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is confident Jasmine wins, citing her superior wrestling and pressure. He disagrees with those who think Ariane da Silva is a bad matchup for Jasmine. He notes Ariane has improved but Jasmine is a better wrestler than Karini Silva, who outwrestled Ariane. He expects Jasmine to get takedowns and win, though he wishes the line were more affordable. He may add action as the week goes on.
Big Brady picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to win by decision, but with some concern. He acknowledges that Ariane da Silva has improved her takedown defense significantly, stuffing many takedowns in recent fights. However, Brady believes Jasudavicius is a much better wrestler than those opponents and will get takedowns. He notes that if Jasudavicius can't get takedowns, she is in trouble on the feet, but he leans toward her wrestling winning out.
Cody picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, expecting her to spam takedowns and rack up control time. He notes that Ariane Lipski has been taken down frequently in the past, and Jasudavicius's wrestling should be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges that Jasudavicius's striking is not elite but believes her grappling will be the difference.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to pace Ariane da Silva, but notes it's a pass at the betting line. He acknowledges da Silva's recent improvements in maturity and output, but believes Jasudavicius's relentless pace and pressure will be too much. Vreeland expects Jasudavicius to push the pace and potentially get a finish, though he's not confident enough to bet at -225.
Jasudavicius will put a grind on da Silva, put her in uncomfortable positions, chain wrestling attempts together, and win on the scorecards. Da Silva's defensive grappling improvements were against lower-level grapplers, and she struggled against more impressive grapplers like Jasudavicius.
Paul picks Ariane Lipski as an underdog, arguing that her takedown defense has improved significantly since joining American Top Team, stuffing 21 straight takedown attempts before facing Karine Silva. He believes Lipski is the better striker and can keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes that Jasudavicius struggled to takedown Tracy Cortez and was out struck in that fight.
The Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius over Ariane da Silva, noting Jasudavicius's recent decent performances and size advantage. He questions da Silva's consistency and believes Jasudavicius's momentum and reach will carry her to a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karine Silva | 0 | 42 of 81 | 51% | 89 of 153 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 27 of 75 | 36% | 53 of 120 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 7:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karine Silva | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 15 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 | |
| 2 | Karine Silva | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 | |
| 3 | Karine Silva | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 47 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 15 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karine Silva | 42 of 81 | 51% | 12 of 37 | 22 of 29 | 8 of 15 | 31 of 66 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Ariane da Silva | 27 of 75 | 36% | 8 of 29 | 9 of 32 | 10 of 14 | 21 of 65 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karine Silva | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Ariane da Silva | 4 of 17 | 23% | 0 of 7 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Karine Silva | 9 of 18 | 50% | 1 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 10 of 20 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 | |
| 3 | Karine Silva | 26 of 50 | 52% | 7 of 21 | 16 of 20 | 3 of 9 | 19 of 41 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 13 of 38 | 34% | 4 of 12 | 4 of 18 | 5 of 8 | 11 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Lipski catches a kick and lands the first punch. Silva lands a jumping kick to the body. Lipski uses her jab and lands a straight right to the body. Silva gets a takedown and winds up in half-guard. Elbows from Silva land. Lipski pushes her opponent off. Silva engages on the ground again and gets into side control. Lipski gives up her neck as Silva is cranking. Lipski gets out of the submission attempt. Silva gets pushed off again, and Lipski gets up. Lipski lands leg kicks and gets into guard. Lipski finishes the round on top, landing a few elbows.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 2
The two fighters exchange leg kicks on the feet. Lipski uses her jab and goes high with a kick. Silva catches a leg and is forced to give it up after Lipski throws a bunch of punches. Silva is able to throw Lipski to the ground. Silva is in half-guard and in full control of Lipski. Some nice elbows are landing for Silva. Lipski goes for a leg lock. Silva defends well. Silva gets to her feet and lands a few leg kicks. Lipski with a good upkick. Silva lands a damaging body kick as Lipski gets up. Silva drags Lipski back to the ground and has her back. Lipski defends well and survives the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 3
Lipski comes out swinging as she knows she needs a finish. Silva slows the pace with some leg kicks. Lipski answers with some body kicks. Silva catches a kick and goes for a takedown. Lipski rips her hands free, but the two are still clinched against the fence. A few knees land for Lipski, who then backs away. Silva throws a front kick. Halfway through the round. Lipski landing more kicks but isn't putting Silva in any danger. They clinch again. Silva is just holding on and not doing any damage. Lipski gets back to her feet, although Silva manages to scramble and take the back. Silva looks for a rear-naked choke as the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)
The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ariane Lipski via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); R3, 5:00.
Angelo bet Karine Silva at +118 underdog, noting she has 17 wins all by stoppage. He believes she can get the fight to the ground and find a submission or ground-and-pound. He gives credit to Ariane da Silva for improving her grappling and takedown defense, but thinks Karine's finishing ability will be the difference. He is confident she wins and notes the line has since flipped to -140.
Cody picks Lipski as a dog, citing her improved takedown defense (stuffed 19 of 20 attempts in last three fights) and volume striking. He believes she can survive Silva's early submission threats and win a decision, noting she has never been submitted.
Daniel is impressed by Silva's 100% finish rate (17 finishes) and her dangerous ground game, including a rare leg lock. He thinks her striking is hittable but she's confident because she's dangerous on the ground. He believes she will finish Lipski, noting that in women's MMA, such finishing upside is huge.
Ariane da Silva has shown improved takedown defense, stuffing all 25 takedown attempts in her last five fights. She should be able to keep the fight standing and use her striking to beat Karine Silva. Karine Silva is dangerous on the ground but has holes in her striking. I lean Ariane da Silva by decision.
Paul also picks Lipski, highlighting her three-fight winning streak as an underdog since moving to American Top Team. He notes her takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing, and expects her volume to outwork Silva over three rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva, highlighting her consistent finishing ability with five or six submissions in a row. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's wins as over weak competition and notes her submission game is more opportunistic. He believes Silva's ability to force submissions will be the difference, and predicts she will get past da Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 31 of 74 | 41% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 64 of 127 | 50% | 86 of 152 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 28 of 68 | 41% | 29 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 39 of 93 | 41% | 44 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 25 of 34 | 73% | 42 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 31 of 74 | 41% | 17 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 72 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 64 of 127 | 50% | 45 of 106 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 95 | 9 of 11 | 18 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 28 of 68 | 41% | 15 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 13 | 26 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 39 of 93 | 41% | 21 of 73 | 15 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 81 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 25 of 34 | 73% | 24 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 |
Angelo leans Ariane da Silva, noting her recent evolution in grappling and takedown defense. He contrasts her upward trajectory with Casey O'Neill's recent struggles. He fears O'Neill's size but picks Ariane, comparing the fight to Veronica Hardy vs. Jamie Lorth.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by second-round TKO, citing a phenomenal stylistic matchup. He notes O'Neill's vicious ground and pound and believes she will take down Lipski and dominate, as Lipski has been finished 4 times and struggles with ground pressure. Brady acknowledges Lipski's recent wins stuffing takedowns but thinks O'Neill's wrestling and volume will be too much. He also mentions O'Neill could knock Lipski out on the feet.
Cody picks Lipski as an underdog, citing her recent improvements at American Top Team and her wins as an underdog over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. He notes that O'Neill's wrestling has not been as effective against higher-level competition and that Lipski can keep the fight standing and make it competitive. Cody believes Lipski's volume and clinch elbows could be key, and at +165 she offers value.
Lucrative James picks Ariane Lipski outright. He notes that Lipski's takedown defense has improved dramatically, and if she stuffs takedowns, she will piece Casey O'Neill up on the feet. He believes Casey's path is only via takedown and ground control, but Lipski's improved defense and the value on her as an underdog make her the side. He has already bet Lipski.
The host, who previously faded Lipski, is now on board after her recent improvements. He believes Lipski has a technical striking advantage, better takedown defense, and growing confidence. He expects Lipski to keep the fight standing, land the more damaging blows, and win a decision. He notes that O'Neill is still raw and untested, and that Lipski can provide a similar type of loss as Jennifer Maia did to O'Neill.
Paul picks O'Neill but is not confident. He notes that O'Neill has good volume and takedowns against lower-level competition, but her wrestling has been less effective against better opponents. He believes O'Neill should use her wrestling to win but is hesitant because Lipski has improved. Paul expects a competitive fight and thinks O'Neill by decision is likely, but he is not fully confident.
The Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Ariane Lipski, citing O'Neill's higher volume striking and physicality. He notes O'Neill threw nearly 400 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi, while Lipski's output is lower. He expects a decision win for O'Neill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 66 of 149 | 44% | 81 of 166 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Melissa Gatto | 0 | 85 of 186 | 45% | 100 of 201 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 18 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Melissa Gatto | 0 | 28 of 53 | 52% | 28 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 39 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Melissa Gatto | 0 | 33 of 66 | 50% | 45 of 78 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 24 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Melissa Gatto | 0 | 24 of 67 | 35% | 27 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 66 of 149 | 44% | 28 of 101 | 27 of 36 | 11 of 12 | 53 of 131 | 12 of 15 | 1 of 3 |
| Melissa Gatto | 85 of 186 | 45% | 39 of 117 | 34 of 50 | 12 of 19 | 70 of 165 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 16 of 49 | 32% | 3 of 30 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Melissa Gatto | 28 of 53 | 52% | 13 of 31 | 10 of 15 | 5 of 7 | 25 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 26 of 46 | 56% | 10 of 27 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 37 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Melissa Gatto | 33 of 66 | 50% | 11 of 37 | 17 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 23 of 52 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 24 of 54 | 44% | 15 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 |
| Melissa Gatto | 24 of 67 | 35% | 15 of 49 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 4 | 22 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) based on her last performance against JJ Aldrich, where her hands and wrestling looked great. He acknowledges the logical pick is Melissa Gatto due to Lipski's history of being outgrappled, but he goes against logic. He suggests a plus 3.5 point buy on the scorecard for Lipski as a safer bet.
Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He notes Gatto has improved significantly, with better striking and takedown defense, and has power. He points out that Ariane da Silva (Lipski) has been dominated on the ground by fighters like Montana De La Rosa and Antonina Shevchenko, and Gatto's top game is dangerous. He expects Gatto to get on top and finish early.
Cody sees Lipski as a live underdog. He notes Gatto's low volume (17 significant strikes in nearly 3 rounds against Eubanks) and poor defensive wrestling. Lipski showed improved wrestling at ATT and has high volume (101 significant strikes against Aldrich). Cody thinks if Lipski can stuff takedowns, she wins the striking battle. He also notes Lipski is only 29 and improving.
Daniel confidently picks Gatto, citing her superior heart, durability, and grappling. He notes Lipski's history of quitting when pressured and her poor defensive grappling, while Gatto showed toughness against Tracy Cortez, reversing positions and landing takedowns. He believes Gatto's chin and submission threat are key, and that Lipski's recent win over JJ Aldrich is overrated. However, he missed the opening line (-150) and won't bet at -230, but expects Gatto to win.
Paul is tempted by the CF dog model. He notes Lipski's last performance against Aldrich was impressive and that Gatto's wins are over low-level competition. He questions if Lipski has turned the corner and thinks the line is off. Paul believes Lipski has a legitimate chance.
The Guru picks Melissa Gatto, noting her impressive win over Ariane Lipski via front kick to the body and her submission win over Karol Rosa. He acknowledges her loss to Tracy Cortez but believes she has improved during her year off. He predicts a submission off her back, possibly an armbar.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 101 of 204 | 49% | 113 of 216 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 49 of 99 | 49% | 56 of 106 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 40 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 35 of 73 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 38 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 101 of 204 | 49% | 47 of 134 | 42 of 56 | 12 of 14 | 77 of 176 | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 49 of 99 | 49% | 42 of 92 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 95 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 67 | 52% | 17 of 42 | 15 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 22 of 53 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 11 of 20 | 55% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 73 | 47% | 15 of 48 | 15 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 20 of 39 | 51% | 18 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 31 of 64 | 48% | 15 of 44 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 55 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 18 of 40 | 45% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in JJ Aldrich, describing her as a solid, dependable grinder who will stick to a game plan and grind forward. He notes she is dangerous nowhere but good everywhere, and despite breaking his rule against betting on women's MMA, he places a 1.5 unit bet at -220. He believes she will win without taking risks.
Big Brady is confident in JJ Aldrich, noting she is the much more technical striker with better footwork. He highlights Lipski's huge hole in her ground game, calling it 'atrocious' and noting she has been finished on the mat multiple times. Brady expects Aldrich to mix takedowns and eventually get a late TKO, though he acknowledges decision is more likely.
Cody picks Aldrich, citing her training and striking. He notes da Silva's lack of improvement and thinks Aldrich can finish or win a decision. He is cautious about the price but sees Aldrich as a safe parlay piece.
Connor picks Aldrich confidently, citing her superior striking, takedown ability, and experience. He notes that Lipski has poor takedown defense and tends to focus on punching when pressured, which Aldrich can exploit with clinch work and takedowns. He believes Aldrich is a level above Lipski's previous competition.
Aldrich's footwork, combination striking, and experience should be too much for Lipski. Lipski has struggled against higher-level competition and has been finished in her losses. Aldrich can win on the feet or even on the ground. I expect Aldrich to box her way to a decision victory, controlling the distance and landing the cleaner shots.
Paul picks Aldrich, noting her striking advantage and improved wrestling. He thinks she can win standing or on the ground, but is wary of the -450 price. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds prop as interesting.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich, calling her underrated. He notes she trains with top fighters and performed decently against Blanchfield before getting guillotined. He believes Aldrich is more well-rounded and tougher, and will win a decision by out-grappling and making Ariane da Silva gun-shy.
Zane picks Aldrich, noting that she is a consistent, well-rounded fighter who should handle Lipski's aggressive but flawed style. He points out that Lipski's best win is against Luana Carolina, who is messy, and that Aldrich's takedown threat and counter-striking will be too much.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priscila Cachoeira | 1 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Priscila Cachoeira | 1 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priscila Cachoeira | 20 of 35 | 57% | 15 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 |
| Ariane da Silva | 4 of 15 | 26% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Priscila Cachoeira | 20 of 35 | 57% | 15 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 |
| Ariane da Silva | 4 of 15 | 26% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lipski (-195), Cachoeira (+165)
Round 1
This is another rescheduled fight from last week’s event, with both women moving up a division to keep the bout intact. After a rough start to her UFC tenure, Brazil’s Cachoeira is building momentum with three wins in her last four outings. A former KSW champ, Lipski has been up and down since signing with the Las Vegas-based promotion. Herb Dean is in charge of the contest. Lipski catches Cachoeira with a counter right. Cachoeira lands a right of her own. “Zombie Girl” moves forward to force the brawl she desires and Lipski obliges. That turns out to be the wrong decision, as a left hook from Cachoeira backs up “The Violence Queen.” Cachoeira forces the issue, landing more shots.
Lipski is firing back but leaving herself exposed, and eventually the onslaught from Cachoeira drops her opponent — puncutated by a right to the chin. Cachoeira smells blood, and a barrage of punches and hammerfists on the canvas on a defenseless Lipski brings the show to a close.
The Official Result
Priscila Cachoeira def. Ariane Lipski via TKO (Punches) R1 1:05
Angelo switched his pick from Lipski to Cachoeira due to Lipski's weight cut issues and medical problems. He notes Cachoeira is the more dangerous fighter with heavy pressure and power, and Lipski may not be at 100% after cutting weight twice in a short period.
Big Brady picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) to win by first-round submission. He notes that Cachoeira absorbs an absurd 7.91 significant strikes per minute with 45% striking defense, calling her the definition of blocking punches with her face. Lipski hits hard and has a good submission game, and Cachoeira has been submitted twice in the UFC. Brady believes Lipski will take the fight down and submit her easily in the first round.
Cody picks Lipski, criticizing Cachoeira's technique and durability. He notes Cachoeira missed weight and had lingering COVID symptoms, which are bad signs. Cody thinks Lipski is better standing and in the clinch, and he cannot bet Cachoeira.
Paul picks Cachoeira, having already bet her at +150 and a round three prop at 20-1. He acknowledges she missed weight and had COVID issues but still believes she can win. Paul is sticking with his bet despite the line moving against him.
The host picks Ariane Lipski (Ariane da Silva) over Priscila Cachoeira, citing Cachoeira's weak UFC wins and losses to fighters like Molly McCann and Luana Carolina. He expects Lipski to take the fight to the ground and secure a submission in the first or second round, referencing Lipski's previous dominant submission win over Luana Carolina who also beat Cachoeira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 2 | 87 of 194 | 44% | 116 of 233 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Mandy Böhm | 0 | 36 of 108 | 33% | 47 of 123 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 17 of 50 | 34% | 44 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Mandy Böhm | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 1 | 35 of 72 | 48% | 36 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Mandy Böhm | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 1 | 35 of 72 | 48% | 36 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Mandy Böhm | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 87 of 194 | 44% | 27 of 106 | 53 of 73 | 7 of 15 | 64 of 157 | 15 of 23 | 8 of 14 |
| Mandy Böhm | 36 of 108 | 33% | 18 of 84 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 31 of 101 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 17 of 50 | 34% | 7 of 34 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 14 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 2 |
| Mandy Böhm | 12 of 26 | 46% | 2 of 12 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 72 | 48% | 10 of 36 | 22 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 25 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
| Mandy Böhm | 12 of 41 | 29% | 8 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 72 | 48% | 10 of 36 | 22 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 25 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
| Mandy Böhm | 12 of 41 | 29% | 8 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) confidently. He thinks she is a little better everywhere and has a huge experience edge (20 fights vs 7). He notes that Mandy Böhm is undefeated but has no specific elite skill to lean on, and that Lipski's losses came on her back, which he doesn't think will happen here. He placed a 1-unit bet on the moneyline at -121.
Big Brady picks underdog Mandy Böhm, believing her grappling will be the difference. He notes Ariane Lipski has poor takedown defense (42%) and a weak ground game, having been finished on the mat multiple times. He predicts Böhm will exploit this and win by second-round TKO or submission.
Cody picks Mandy Böhm, citing her superior striking, reach advantage, and underrated wrestling. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's poor takedown defense and low output, calling her 'fraudulent.' Cody notes that Böhm has a year layoff but believes she has the skills to win if she shows up in shape.
Daniel Levi leans with Ariane Lipski. He notes Lipski has lost twice in a row but those losses were to high-level fighters (Montana De La Rosa, Antonina Shevchenko). He thinks Mandy Böhm is green, with issues getting off the fence and off her back. He credits Böhm's toughness and clinch elbows but believes Lipski's experience will prevail. He says he's not confident enough to bet Lipski but picks her to get back on track.
Preet reluctantly picks Lipski because she is the much better striker and has trained at ATT. However, he is concerned about her takedown defense. He thinks Lipski will overwhelm Böhm on the feet and get a TKO in the second round. He likes Lipski by TKO at +500 and under 2.5 rounds at +185.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ariane da Silva was dominated on the ground by Antonina Shevchenko, who is not a strong grappler. He believes Böhm's clinch work and cage control will be key. Paul says he cannot bet anyone who gets 'throttled' by Shevchenko.
The MMA Guru picks Mandy Böhm over Ariane Lipski, noting Böhm's technical skill, athleticism, and undefeated record. He criticizes Lipski's inconsistency against fundamentally sound opponents. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Böhm.
Expert Picks (6)
Big Brady is confident in De La Rosa, citing her wrestling background and BJJ black belt. He notes Lipski has poor takedown defense (45%) and was dominated on the mat by Antonina Shevchenko, a striker. He believes De La Rosa will take Lipski down at will and submit her, as 75% of her wins are by submission. He is surprised by public betting favoring Lipski.
Cody picks De La Rosa, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lipski's takedown defense issues and that De La Rosa has been scoring takedowns in recent fights. Cody thinks De La Rosa's wrestling will be the difference. He is confident but notes the price is steep.
Daniel picks Montana De La Rosa due to her massive edge on the ground, noting that Lipski has a huge hole in her ground game and lacks toughness. He acknowledges that Montana's stand-up is not impressive and she often hangs on for dear life, but believes she will get on top, take the back, and ground-and-pound for a finish. Daniel is uncomfortable with the -300 price but still picks Montana to win via submission or TKO on the mat.
De La Rosa has superior wrestling and takedown defense. Lipski has poor takedown defense and is a fish out of water on the ground. De La Rosa will grind out a decision or possibly get a late finish.
Paul picks De La Rosa, citing her wrestling base and takedown ability. He notes Lipski's poor takedown defense and that De La Rosa has been improving. Paul thinks De La Rosa can get the fight to the ground and control it. He acknowledges the price is high but sees a clear path to victory.
The Guru picks Montana De La Rosa, citing her size, youth, and experience against better competition. He thinks she has more options than Ariane Lipski, with good cardio, grappling, and stand-up. He expects a close fight but believes De La Rosa will win a 29-28 decision by grinding against the cage and landing total strikes.
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