UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021 · Women’s Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age N/A
Height 5' 6"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Montana De La Rosa
2.9 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
3.39 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
1.85 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ariane da Silva
4.05 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.4 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.47 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Montana De La Rosa
Moneyline
FanDuel -275
KO/TKO
BetWay +900
Submission
BetWay +275
Decision
BetWay +110
Ariane da Silva
Moneyline
DraftKings +230
KO/TKO
BetWay +1200
Submission
BetWay +1000
Decision
BetWay +350
Montana De La Rosa - Fight History
CANCEL vs Luana Carolina
UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Angelo picks Luana Carolina, citing her superior striking and solid takedown defense (74%). He believes she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Montana De La Rosa, who relies on wrestling. He notes that Carolina is used to opponents trying to take her down and sees her as a solid bet, possibly worth a stab.

Solid bet; lady over is probably the way to go
"I think this is a pretty straightforward win and I think it's going to be LNA Carolina she's by far the better striker in this matchup and if she can keep this fight standing she absolutely wins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Big Brady leans toward Luana Carolina, impressed by her takedown defense. He notes that Montana De La Rosa will try to wrestle, but if she can't get takedowns, Carolina is the better striker. He expects a close split decision.

fight goes to decision; close split decision
"I slightly got to go to the Luana Carolina side I'm going to pick her to win this fight by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The host expects De La Rosa's wrestling style to pay off and expose holes in Luana Carolina's game. He looks for De La Rosa to smother her with grappling, possibly opening a submission opportunity, but primarily controlling the fight and winning on the scorecards.

"I believe Del Rosa's wrestling style will pay off for a year and it will start to expose the holes that are still in Lana Carolina's game look for delar Rosa to smother her with her grappling maybe open up …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luana Carolina

The Guru picks Luana Carolina over Montana De La Rosa. He notes that Montana has had takedowns but hasn't established dominant control, while Luana will win on the feet with more grit and determination. He also mentions a psychological edge: Luana will be jealous of Montana's looks and fight with rage. He predicts a split decision.

"I'm going to go with Lana carolina... she'll be able to win this one on the feet and she'll have more grit and heart and determination."
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montana De La Rosa 0 75 of 152 49% 115 of 201 0 of 2 0% 0 2 2:08
Andrea Lee 0 70 of 180 38% 88 of 206 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montana De La Rosa 0 27 of 50 54% 52 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:52
Andrea Lee 0 14 of 44 31% 17 of 49 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:10
2 Montana De La Rosa 0 31 of 68 45% 36 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 33 of 81 40% 37 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Montana De La Rosa 0 17 of 34 50% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:16
Andrea Lee 0 23 of 55 41% 34 of 71 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montana De La Rosa 75 of 152 49% 37 of 109 29 of 31 9 of 12 58 of 129 13 of 16 4 of 7
Andrea Lee 70 of 180 38% 53 of 156 12 of 17 5 of 7 62 of 161 5 of 16 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montana De La Rosa 27 of 50 54% 16 of 38 10 of 10 1 of 2 12 of 31 11 of 12 4 of 7
Andrea Lee 14 of 44 31% 9 of 37 4 of 6 1 of 1 10 of 36 4 of 8 0 of 0
2 Montana De La Rosa 31 of 68 45% 14 of 49 11 of 12 6 of 7 30 of 65 1 of 3 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 33 of 81 40% 26 of 72 4 of 5 3 of 4 33 of 77 0 of 4 0 of 0
3 Montana De La Rosa 17 of 34 50% 7 of 22 8 of 9 2 of 3 16 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 23 of 55 41% 18 of 47 4 of 6 1 of 2 19 of 48 1 of 4 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee, noting that Montana De La Rosa is a wrestler but didn't use her wrestling in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He thinks if Montana doesn't commit to takedowns, Andrea will out-strike her. Andrea is a good striker with underrated skills, and her losses are to quality opponents. He is not confident Montana will wrestle, so he goes with Andrea.

"unless I was 100% positive that Montana Delarosa was all in on the wrestling I gotta go Andrea Lee"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa with little confidence. He notes that Andrea Lee is on a four-fight losing streak and looks to be declining, while De La Rosa's striking has improved. He expects De La Rosa to get takedowns and control time. He says he is not betting on this fight and advises others to avoid it.

"I'm going to take De la Rosa with little to no confidence I'm not betting on this fight and God help you if you are betting on on this fight here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has poor ring IQ and does not commit to her wrestling. Lee has improved her takedown defense and has better striking volume. Cody expects Lee to sprawl and brawl, outpointing De La Rosa on the feet. He also likes Lee by decision at plus money.

Andrea Lee by decision
"I got Lee and then if you want to get a little spicy with it uh lee by decision she's not knocking out delar Roa she's not submitting delar Rosa so if she's going to win she's just going to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Daniel picks Lee as the better fighter despite both being on losing streaks. He notes Lee won their first fight and has faced tougher competition, but questions her motivation and slowing speed. He sees Montana as never assertive enough, so he expects Lee to win a split decision.

split decision
"I'll go Andrea Lee via split decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

Jacob leans Andrea Lee, but with low confidence. He notes that both fighters are better than their records suggest. He worries that if Montana commits to wrestling, Andrea could be on her back for 15 minutes. However, he thinks Andrea is the better striker and can defend takedowns with footwork. He expects a close fight and goes with Andrea, but is not confident.

"I'm leaning Andrea Lee here I don't absolutely love it because if Montana does come in all in wrestling all of a sudden it's Andrew Lee laying on her back for 15 minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Lee is a skilled striker with an active Jiu-Jitsu game, while De La Rosa relies on grappling but lacks striking. Lee should land strikes and stuff takedowns, and may even catch a submission off her back. However, Lee can be flaky if she gets demoralized. Leaning Lee by submission, but passing on betting due to line movement.

submission
"I'm going to Le Lee in this spot... I'm going to say Lee by submission she might throw something up and catch T Roa in it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has not been dominant with her grappling recently. Lee has better striking and takedown defense. Paul expects Lee to win on volume and outpoint De La Rosa over three rounds.

"Lee Lee on on volume Montana Del la ro said for all of her faults she has always been incredibly durable so uh credit word credits do on that front"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The Guru picks Andrea Lee because she does damage well and is a more physical specimen with less wasted weight. He thinks her age (35) and lack of children give her anger and aggression, especially in the third round. He notes Montana De La Rosa has a decent grappling game but Lee did better on the feet against Macy Barber. He expects Lee to do better on the feet and win.

"I'll go with Andrea Lee I think she can Implement damage more she's a more physical specimen out of the two of them"
LOSS vs JJ Aldrich
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JJ Aldrich 0 67 of 204 32% 70 of 209 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 65 of 135 48% 66 of 136 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JJ Aldrich 0 19 of 55 34% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
2 JJ Aldrich 0 21 of 63 33% 23 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 20 of 44 45% 20 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 JJ Aldrich 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 26 of 56 46% 27 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JJ Aldrich 67 of 204 32% 41 of 172 13 of 16 13 of 16 59 of 184 8 of 20 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 65 of 135 48% 55 of 122 9 of 11 1 of 2 58 of 124 7 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JJ Aldrich 19 of 55 34% 14 of 48 0 of 2 5 of 5 17 of 49 2 of 6 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 19 of 35 54% 18 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 2 16 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 JJ Aldrich 21 of 63 33% 10 of 49 7 of 8 4 of 6 19 of 56 2 of 7 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 20 of 44 45% 15 of 38 5 of 6 0 of 0 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 JJ Aldrich 27 of 86 31% 17 of 75 6 of 6 4 of 5 23 of 79 4 of 7 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 26 of 56 46% 22 of 51 4 of 5 0 of 0 24 of 52 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Angelo picks Montana De La Rosa because she is a very good wrestler with a straightforward game plan of taking opponents down. He notes that JJ Aldrich is decent at everything but great at nothing, and that Aldrich was taken down in her last fight. He also mentions that Montana's losses are to quality fighters like Tatiana Suarez, while Aldrich has had poor performances. He placed a half-unit bet on Montana at +135, noting the line has since moved.

Bet 0.5 units at +135; line movement noted
"I put a half a unit on Montana DEA Rosa at plus 135"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady leans toward Montana De La Rosa, noting that she has a grappling advantage over JJ Aldrich. He believes De La Rosa's wrestling is solid for the division and that she can control the fight on the ground. He mentions that Aldrich has been taken down by lesser grapplers like Liang Na, so De La Rosa should be able to secure takedowns. However, he admits the fight could be close if De La Rosa cannot get the takedown, and he preferred her at plus money. He predicts a decision win.

decision win for Montana De La Rosa
"I do lean the Montana de la Roa side here I liked her a lot more at at plus money because at the end of the day I do think this is going to be a pretty close fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Cody picks De La Rosa, citing her toughness, wrestling, and ability to pressure. He notes that Aldrich has struggled against grapplers and that De La Rosa's tenacity will be key. He expects De La Rosa to make the fight dirty and win a decision.

"final verdict would be Montana Del Rosa... she probably makes this dirty again in Aldridge and wins"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa, noting her toughness and improved hands. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich is the cleaner striker but thinks Montana can bully her and take her back. He mentions that the value has shifted to Aldrich now that Montana is favored, but his pure pick is Montana.

notes that those who got Montana at plus money made the right play; suggests hedging with Aldrich plus money
"my pure pick is Montana De la Rosa"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Montana De La Rosa

Lucrative James sees this as a close fight, likely 29-28 either way. He leans Montana De La Rosa because he has seen JJ Aldrich 'flake' a few times against physical opponents like Erin Blanchfield and Bara. He believes De La Rosa's physicality can cause Aldrich to falter, though he acknowledges it's a toss-up.

"I lean Montana de Roa the reason is because I've seen JJ Aldridge kind of flake a few times now... I do think a physical girl can make a flake"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich took this fight on short notice, which suggests she believes she has an edge from training with De La Rosa in the past. She has good takedown defense and superior striking, and should be able to stuff takedowns or work back to her feet. De La Rosa is on a two-fight losing streak and relies on wrestling, but Aldrich has shown she can handle grapplers. Expect Aldrich to land more damage and win by decision.

"give me Aldridge to go out there land more damage to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Paul picks De La Rosa, agreeing with the line movement. He notes that Aldrich has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers, and that De La Rosa's wrestling and heart should be enough. He expects a decision win.

"Montana De la Rosa for me as well... likely wins by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldridge. He believes De La Rosa is underrated and notes her decent performance against Macy Barber and competitive rounds with Tatiana Suarez. He points to a common opponent, Ariane Lipski, who finished De La Rosa but later beat Aldridge, suggesting De La Rosa is stronger. He also mentions a slight reach advantage for De La Rosa and describes Aldridge as 'two hit and miss.'

"I'm gonna go with Montana De la Rosa here I do believe that she's somewhat of an underrated female fighter"
LOSS vs Tatiana Suarez
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:51 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 10 of 13 76% 37 of 43 2 of 6 33% 1 0 5:45
Montana De La Rosa 0 5 of 11 45% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 7 of 8 87% 26 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:26
Montana De La Rosa 0 4 of 8 50% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 3 of 5 60% 11 of 13 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:19
Montana De La Rosa 0 1 of 3 33% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 10 of 13 76% 0 of 1 8 of 10 2 of 2 3 of 5 7 of 8 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 7 of 8 87% 0 of 1 6 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 3 of 5 60% 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Suarez because De La Rosa will let her wrestle. He notes that De La Rosa is a competitive fighter but lacks strategy, and if Suarez is the same fighter, she will do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able. Connor also mentions that De La Rosa's tight pocket boxing style gives opportunities for opponents to get in on her hips, which Suarez can exploit.

Suarez opened at -700, now -788. De La Rosa at +500 to +550. Connor says he wouldn't bet on Suarez at those wide odds due to X-factors.
"I will just simply assume that she's gonna look like Tatiana Suarez and if she does she is going to get a fight where she gets to do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Zane picks Suarez, assuming she will look like her old self and dominate with wrestling. He notes that De La Rosa is a classic test fighter who will accept whatever fight her opponent wants, and if Suarez can bring physical dominance, she will win. However, he acknowledges major X-factors: Suarez hasn't fought in almost four years, has neck and knee injuries that could affect her wrestling, and her striking is poor. Still, he believes she will get the takedowns she wants.

Suarez opened at -700, now -788. De La Rosa at +500 to +550. Zane says he wouldn't bet on Suarez at those wide odds due to X-factors.
"I gotta pick Tatiana Sargas I think she's gonna get the game she's gonna get the fight she wants she's gonna get the chances to take get the takedown she wants but this is all about how you know how …"
LOSS vs Maycee Barber
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maycee Barber 0 50 of 63 79% 80 of 101 1 of 4 25% 0 1 7:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 14 of 28 50% 41 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 1 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maycee Barber 0 25 of 31 80% 34 of 43 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:25
Montana De La Rosa 0 3 of 10 30% 16 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:51
2 Maycee Barber 0 7 of 9 77% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:06
Montana De La Rosa 0 2 of 5 40% 4 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:22
3 Maycee Barber 0 18 of 23 78% 32 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:29
Montana De La Rosa 0 9 of 13 69% 21 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maycee Barber 50 of 63 79% 31 of 42 16 of 18 3 of 3 4 of 8 40 of 47 6 of 8
Montana De La Rosa 14 of 28 50% 7 of 19 7 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 13 10 of 14 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maycee Barber 25 of 31 80% 14 of 20 8 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 3 23 of 27 1 of 1
Montana De La Rosa 3 of 10 30% 0 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 6 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Maycee Barber 7 of 9 77% 6 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 6
Montana De La Rosa 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Maycee Barber 18 of 23 78% 11 of 15 7 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 4 16 of 18 0 of 1
Montana De La Rosa 9 of 13 69% 6 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Angelo picks Maycee Barber but with zero bet, calling it a tough fight with many unknowns. He notes Barber has good striking and improved wrestling, but can break mentally. He says Montana is a pure wrestler who has improved her hands at Elevation. He is normally a sucker for wrestlers but is worried. He says his gut wants to pick Montana, but for now he goes with Barber to defend takedowns and win striking.

No bet on this fight
"i'm gonna go macy here but zero bet whatsoever there will be no money coming out of my pocket on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa to win by decision, citing her grappling advantage and Barber's recent poor striking performances. He notes Barber has looked bad in recent fights, with low striking accuracy and a tendency to punch air. He thinks De La Rosa can mix in takedowns and control the fight. However, he has low confidence and says he will have zero dollars on the fight.

"I'll take dela rosa to pull off the upset and I'll take her to win by a very close competitive decision mixing of the takedowns"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Cody likes Barber at -190, noting her physical strength and improvement. He acknowledges she's a slow starter but believes she can overpower De La Rosa. He points out De La Rosa's poor striking defense and tendency to get hit. He warns it could be a trap line but picks Barber.

"I'm gonna take barber minus 190 again I think it's a decent enough price tag but it could be a trap price as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2022 (fight day)
Maycee Barber

The host picks Maycee Barber as his biggest bet of the night at 2 units (-181). He believes Barber is a better striker with better footwork and will be able to get up from takedowns and dish out damage on the feet. He is confident in this pick, calling it his most confident play.

Mentions a possible TKO finish for Barber.
"my biggest bet is only two units which is 400 bucks for me and that's on macy barber at minus 181."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is not playing Barber at -190, calling it a dogger pass situation. He thinks Barber rarely shows up and that De La Rosa could control on the mat. He plans to stay away from a betting perspective unless weigh-ins change his mind.

"I am not playing chalk barber"
TKO (punches) R2 4:27 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montana De La Rosa 0 29 of 55 52% 66 of 113 2 of 3 66% 0 0 6:52
Ariane da Silva 0 11 of 24 45% 37 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montana De La Rosa 0 4 of 23 17% 22 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:35
Ariane da Silva 0 7 of 20 35% 24 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Montana De La Rosa 0 25 of 32 78% 44 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:17
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 4 100% 13 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montana De La Rosa 29 of 55 52% 28 of 53 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 22 0 of 0 27 of 33
Ariane da Silva 11 of 24 45% 5 of 15 6 of 9 0 of 0 11 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montana De La Rosa 4 of 23 17% 3 of 21 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ariane da Silva 7 of 20 35% 2 of 12 5 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Montana De La Rosa 25 of 32 78% 25 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 31
Ariane da Silva 4 of 4 100% 3 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady is confident in De La Rosa, citing her wrestling background and BJJ black belt. He notes Lipski has poor takedown defense (45%) and was dominated on the mat by Antonina Shevchenko, a striker. He believes De La Rosa will take Lipski down at will and submit her, as 75% of her wins are by submission. He is surprised by public betting favoring Lipski.

"gimme montale montana de la rosa by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Cody picks De La Rosa, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lipski's takedown defense issues and that De La Rosa has been scoring takedowns in recent fights. Cody thinks De La Rosa's wrestling will be the difference. He is confident but notes the price is steep.

"i think she's going to be ready for it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Daniel picks Montana De La Rosa due to her massive edge on the ground, noting that Lipski has a huge hole in her ground game and lacks toughness. He acknowledges that Montana's stand-up is not impressive and she often hangs on for dear life, but believes she will get on top, take the back, and ground-and-pound for a finish. Daniel is uncomfortable with the -300 price but still picks Montana to win via submission or TKO on the mat.

"i got montana just because of the big edge on the map"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

De La Rosa has superior wrestling and takedown defense. Lipski has poor takedown defense and is a fish out of water on the ground. De La Rosa will grind out a decision or possibly get a late finish.

De La Rosa by decision +115, De La Rosa inside distance +240
"I think montana del rosa cruises here i think she faces the least amount of resistance on this entire card"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Paul picks De La Rosa, citing her wrestling base and takedown ability. He notes Lipski's poor takedown defense and that De La Rosa has been improving. Paul thinks De La Rosa can get the fight to the ground and control it. He acknowledges the price is high but sees a clear path to victory.

"i think montana gets the takedowns here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The Guru picks Montana De La Rosa, citing her size, youth, and experience against better competition. He thinks she has more options than Ariane Lipski, with good cardio, grappling, and stand-up. He expects a close fight but believes De La Rosa will win a 29-28 decision by grinding against the cage and landing total strikes.

unanimous decision, 29-28
"i think montana de la rosa is going to win the duration of the fight"
Draw (majority) (28–27, 28–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Feb 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 30 of 72 41% 107 of 156 3 of 12 25% 0 0 9:12
Montana De La Rosa 0 52 of 80 65% 111 of 142 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mayra Bueno Silva 0 9 of 32 28% 27 of 50 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:07
Montana De La Rosa 0 17 of 28 60% 44 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mayra Bueno Silva 0 11 of 24 45% 45 of 61 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:04
Montana De La Rosa 0 16 of 26 61% 18 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
3 Mayra Bueno Silva 0 10 of 16 62% 35 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:01
Montana De La Rosa 0 19 of 26 73% 49 of 59 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mayra Bueno Silva 30 of 72 41% 19 of 56 11 of 16 0 of 0 23 of 63 5 of 6 2 of 3
Montana De La Rosa 52 of 80 65% 28 of 53 22 of 23 2 of 4 20 of 40 29 of 36 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mayra Bueno Silva 9 of 32 28% 6 of 26 3 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 17 of 28 60% 6 of 15 10 of 10 1 of 3 5 of 13 12 of 15 0 of 0
2 Mayra Bueno Silva 11 of 24 45% 7 of 19 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 2
Montana De La Rosa 16 of 26 61% 10 of 20 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 16 6 of 6 3 of 4
3 Mayra Bueno Silva 10 of 16 62% 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 11 4 of 4 1 of 1
Montana De La Rosa 19 of 26 73% 12 of 18 7 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 11 11 of 15 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Montana De La Rosa vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

Round 1
The last women’s match of the night comes in the featured fight slot, as two submission specialist flyweights tangle. De La Rosa (11-6, 4-3 UFC) and Bueno Silva (7-1, 2-1 UFC) will undoubtedly look to tap out the other, who combine for 13 subs in their 18 wins, all under the watchful eye of referee Jerin Valel. A touch of gloves shows a sign of respect before the showcase begins. De La Rosa reaches out a jab and gets kicked in the calf, a theme for the evening. The American lets loose a one-two, and she follows with another and lands at the end of a right hand. Silva tries to clinch up, and De La Rosa pushes her off only to get kicked in the face. The clinch ensues again, where De La Rosa attacks a single and has her neck snagged from a defensive guillotine choke. De La Rosa transitions to a double and scores the takedown, but Silva walks her way back up with ease while De La Rosa takes her back. De La Rosa looks to trip her foe down but she cannot land it, and turns it into a single only to find herself in a choke attempt. Silva grabs the fence to stop a takedown, and Valel takes a point as Silva apologizes. Right after they touch gloves, De La Rosa shoots for a takedown in the open cage, and Silva stands her up and knees her foe in the chest several times. De La Rosa kicks the chest a few times, and then fires off a pair of crescent kicks that clip off Silva’s chin. The Brazilian eats a fierce one-two, and she marches into a clinch only to wind up defending a takedown attempt. Silva protects herself with several vicious elbows and knees, and De La Rosa is forced to back away. The American sticks out a jab, and she ducks down to take the fight down. Silva nearly grabs the fence again to stay upright, and De La Rosa looks to Valel. When there is nothing done about it, De La Rosa continues her grind against the cage. Silva turns her about but gets trapped against the fence again until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 De La Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 9-9
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 De La Rosa

Round 2
The two women touch gloves, and De La Rosa reaches out with a pair of punches that land. Silva cracks De La Rosa with a head kick, and the American gathers her thoughts and tries to clinch up as Silva lands again. When Silva presses the pace, De La Rosa sells out for a takedown, only to fall to her back with butterfly hooks. Silva stands up to land a couple right hands, and De La Rosa boots her in the face with an upkick. De La Rosa threatens off her back with a triangle choke setup, but the Brazilian stands up to deliver some long punches to De La Rosa’s face. When Silva stands up, De La Rosa chops at her leg with low kicks on her side until Silva lets her back up. De La Rosa scores a side kick to the face, and she tries to counter an advancing Silva with a left hand. De La Rosa lets fly a head kick, and Silva blocks it but eats a left hand that follows. Silva replies with her own head kick, forcing De La Rosa to shoot in from a distance for a takedown. She gets stuffed, and Silva makes her pay with punches and knees. The clinch that comes from it leads to several nasty knees and elbows from Silva, and De La Rosa redoubles her effort to take the fight down. De La Rosa scoops up the leg and puts Silva on her back, where she takes the Brazilian’s back in a scramble. Silva twists and turns to get flat on her back, and De La Rosa takes full mount as she lands strikes from on top. De La Rosa uses arm-triangle choke control to keep her foe down, leading Silva to roll to her side and get hit in the side of the head. De La Rosa lines up the arm-triangle choke, and Silva has her arm trapped and is absorbing punishment. De La Rosa sets up the arm-triangle choke again, only to bail on it to land punches in mount to conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa

Round 3
There is a final glove touch, and De La Rosa once more lunges to throw the first strike. Silva sits down on a pair of big head kicks, and they snap the head back but do not hurt De La Rosa. When De La Rosa comes too close, they clinch up, and Silva starts up kneeing the body and unleashing heavy elbows on the inside. De La Rosa bullies her foe into the cage wall for a single leg takedown, but the Brazilian stands her up. The American ties up the leg to try to drag Silva down, and Silva counters with a close-range choke attempt that is unsuccessful. Silva uses elbows to open up De La Rosa’s face, but De La Rosa hits a takedown. Silva springs back up to her feet and tees off on De La Rosa with a few strikes as blood flows from De La Rosa’s nose and face. De La Rosa ties up her adversary on the fence, and her face is busted up from the strikes from the Brazilian. Silva backs away around the fencing to knee De La Rosa once more, and De La Rosa changes levels low for an unsuccessful takedown. Silva cracks De La Rosa with a few sharp elbows, and De La Rosa stays tight and working the body with a few punches, De La Rosa grabs a single leg and still gets elbowed in the face. De La Rosa tries to respond with a few short knees, all while keeping Silva’s left leg in the air. Silva gains space and marches down her opponent, but De La Rosa hits a takedown in the center of the cage. De La Rosa sits down in her opponent’s guard, as there are few seconds left in the fight. Silva throws a few elbows off her back, but De La Rosa drops down punches as the clock hits zero. The scorecards could be all over the map from this grueling fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva (29-27 De La Rosa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva (28-28)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva (29-27 De La Rosa)

The Official Result
Montana De La Rosa vs. Mayra Bueno Silva is ruled a Majority Draw (27-28, 28-28, 28-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady picks the underdog Montana De La Rosa to grind out a decision. He notes that Silva is extremely hittable and flat-footed, absorbing 6.74 significant strikes per minute. He believes De La Rosa can take Silva down at will due to Silva's 71% takedown defense and that De La Rosa has multiple paths to victory: outlanding on the feet or using her wrestling. He acknowledges Silva's danger off her back but notes De La Rosa has only been submitted once in 17 fights. He disagrees with the line, thinking De La Rosa has a good chance.

decision win for De La Rosa
"i'm actually going to take the dog here in montana de la rosa to grind out a decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Daniel Levi picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her significant power and damaging shots. He acknowledges her takedown defense issues but notes improvement in the Marina Moroz fight. He believes Montana De La Rosa's nose bleeds easily and that Bueno Silva's power will be the difference, potentially leading to a decision win by landing more impactful strikes.

"I think the more damaging shots are going to be landed by maira buenos silva... ultimately i'm going to go with my ira bueno silva to win a decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

De La Rosa has superior wrestling and should be able to take Bueno Silva down repeatedly. Bueno Silva is dangerous off her back with submissions, but De La Rosa has only been submitted by Mackenzie Dern. De La Rosa's cardio and top control are solid, and she has shown improved striking. Expect a decision win via control and ground and pound.

"i do lean with the dog uh odds on de la rosa here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva by submission, specifically an armbar in the first round. He highlights her superior submission skills, noting she has multiple armbar wins and a ninja choke in her career. He believes Montana De La Rosa has shown little improvement and will be outclassed on the ground.

submission win, armbar, first round
"i think i'll go with a submission win for may roberto silva here she's always getting submissions"
LOSS vs Viviane Araújo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Sep 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 82 of 140 58% 91 of 150 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Montana De La Rosa 0 85 of 215 39% 88 of 220 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 23 of 44 52% 26 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Montana De La Rosa 0 20 of 67 29% 20 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
2 Viviane Araújo 0 36 of 54 66% 37 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 34 of 75 45% 34 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Viviane Araújo 0 23 of 42 54% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 31 of 73 42% 34 of 76 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 82 of 140 58% 57 of 113 12 of 13 13 of 14 80 of 137 2 of 3 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 85 of 215 39% 57 of 177 12 of 21 16 of 17 76 of 202 9 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 23 of 44 52% 13 of 33 4 of 5 6 of 6 22 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 20 of 67 29% 14 of 61 3 of 3 3 of 3 17 of 64 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 36 of 54 66% 24 of 41 6 of 6 6 of 7 36 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 34 of 75 45% 20 of 57 6 of 9 8 of 9 33 of 73 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Viviane Araújo 23 of 42 54% 20 of 39 2 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 31 of 73 42% 23 of 59 3 of 9 5 of 5 26 of 65 5 of 8 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady picks Araújo, citing her striking advantage (4.51 sig strikes/min vs 2.3) and 100% takedown defense. He is concerned about her cardio slowing down, which could allow De La Rosa to take over late. He predicts a decision win for Araújo.

Araújo by decision
"i do like arujo to win this fight i think she's the better overall fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Daniel Levi leans with Viviane Araújo, citing her intensity, speed, and power. He notes that Araújo is more well-rounded and hits harder, but has cardio concerns and a chinny history. He believes if Araújo doesn't get choked out or give up her back, she will win. He acknowledges Montana De La Rosa's improvements and grappling, but feels Araújo's early offense will be decisive.

"i'm going to lean with vivian arujo to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The host likes De La Rosa as a +150 underdog, citing her wrestling base, top pressure, and improving cardio. He questions Araújo's gas tank and ground game, noting she was controlled by Alexis Davis on the ground. He expects De La Rosa to mix in takedowns and win a decision.

"i like de la rosa's chances here as an underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, stating she is somewhat decent and has lost to better competition (Jessica Eye) compared to Montana De La Rosa's losses. He believes Araújo's training camp and overall skills will lead to a third-round finish by submission or TKO. He dismisses De La Rosa's recent win over Mara Romero Borella as not impressive.

third round finish by submission or tko
"vivian arujo is going to get the job done she's lost a better competition than montana de la rosa has lost to"
Ariane da Silva - Fight History
LOSS vs Wang Cong
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 63 of 176 35% 65 of 178 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:03
Wang Cong 1 143 of 222 64% 147 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 17 of 41 41% 17 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 0 46 of 65 70% 48 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ariane da Silva 0 19 of 59 32% 21 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Wang Cong 1 42 of 64 65% 44 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Ariane da Silva 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Wang Cong 0 55 of 93 59% 55 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 63 of 176 35% 31 of 121 20 of 37 12 of 18 55 of 164 8 of 12 0 of 0
Wang Cong 143 of 222 64% 75 of 148 28 of 31 40 of 43 127 of 206 13 of 13 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 17 of 41 41% 9 of 29 4 of 7 4 of 5 15 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0
Wang Cong 46 of 65 70% 16 of 34 12 of 12 18 of 19 39 of 58 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 19 of 59 32% 11 of 44 5 of 10 3 of 5 16 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0
Wang Cong 42 of 64 65% 19 of 39 8 of 8 15 of 17 37 of 59 2 of 2 3 of 3
3 Ariane da Silva 27 of 76 35% 11 of 48 11 of 20 5 of 8 24 of 71 3 of 5 0 of 0
Wang Cong 55 of 93 59% 40 of 75 8 of 11 7 of 7 51 of 89 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Angelo picks Wang Cong but is not fully confident. He acknowledges Ariane Lipski's underrated striking and ability to make it competitive. He thinks Wang's power will add up over time and Lipski will become afraid to engage. He notes the odds are almost 4-to-1 and says he will likely avoid betting on this fight.

Likely to avoid betting on this fight.
"I am going to pick Kong because her power is insane. ... I'm likely going to avoid this fight altogether."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Big Brady picks Wang Cong, citing her high-level striking and the fact that Ariane da Silva has been finished in five of her losses, four by KO. He thinks da Silva doesn't like getting hit and that Cong can finish her on the feet or by mixing in takedowns, as da Silva's ground game is suspect. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Cong by KO in round 2
"I like Kong Wong. I'm going to take Kong Wong to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

Wang Cong is expected to be more effective with her footwork, distance management, and combinations. She will land more effective damage throughout the fight and chip away at Lipski to win on the scorecards.

"I fully expect Wang to be more effective with her footwork, distance management, and combinations. And I ultimately think she can land more effective damage throughout the 15 minutes in this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Wang Cong

The MMA Guru confidently picks Wang Cong, citing her superior kickboxing, power, and ability to finish. He notes Ariane da Silva has submission skills but lacks power and is reactionary. He predicts Wang Cong wins by TKO in the first round, dominating exchanges. He mentions Wang Cong's only loss was a fluke submission she would win 8 out of 10 times.

Finish prediction: first round TKO.
"I'm going with Wang Kong. She's just good at fighting, you know."
Submission (brabo choke) R3 2:28 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 42 of 92 45% 43 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 36 of 84 42% 130 of 218 3 of 5 60% 1 0 5:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 13 of 46 28% 20 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 17 of 28 60% 83 of 120 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:42
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 6 of 10 60% 27 of 38 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jasmine Jasudavicius 42 of 92 45% 26 of 65 15 of 23 1 of 4 41 of 88 1 of 4 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 36 of 84 42% 29 of 76 5 of 6 2 of 2 24 of 70 1 of 1 11 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 27 of 57 47% 17 of 39 10 of 15 0 of 3 27 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 13 of 46 28% 10 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 9 of 20 45% 4 of 13 4 of 6 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 17 of 28 60% 15 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 12
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 6 of 15 40% 5 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 1 of 4 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 6 of 10 60% 4 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Angelo is confident Jasmine wins, citing her superior wrestling and pressure. He disagrees with those who think Ariane da Silva is a bad matchup for Jasmine. He notes Ariane has improved but Jasmine is a better wrestler than Karini Silva, who outwrestled Ariane. He expects Jasmine to get takedowns and win, though he wishes the line were more affordable. He may add action as the week goes on.

"Jasmine wins this fight she is minus 184 wish she was a little more affordable than that but I am confident she gets the takedown confident she gets the win and we'll have some action on her as the week …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Big Brady picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to win by decision, but with some concern. He acknowledges that Ariane da Silva has improved her takedown defense significantly, stuffing many takedowns in recent fights. However, Brady believes Jasudavicius is a much better wrestler than those opponents and will get takedowns. He notes that if Jasudavicius can't get takedowns, she is in trouble on the feet, but he leans toward her wrestling winning out.

"I'll take Jasmine here to win this fight by decision could get sketchy she's probably going to eat some big shots but I'll take Jaz deicious to win this fight by decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Cody picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, expecting her to spam takedowns and rack up control time. He notes that Ariane Lipski has been taken down frequently in the past, and Jasudavicius's wrestling should be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges that Jasudavicius's striking is not elite but believes her grappling will be the difference.

"I expect her to go out there spam take Downs get rack up a whole bunch of control time and probably win a very convincing decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Daniel Vreeland picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to pace Ariane da Silva, but notes it's a pass at the betting line. He acknowledges da Silva's recent improvements in maturity and output, but believes Jasudavicius's relentless pace and pressure will be too much. Vreeland expects Jasudavicius to push the pace and potentially get a finish, though he's not confident enough to bet at -225.

"I'm picking Jasmine jici is to come out here and the pace Arian lipsky"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Jasudavicius will put a grind on da Silva, put her in uncomfortable positions, chain wrestling attempts together, and win on the scorecards. Da Silva's defensive grappling improvements were against lower-level grapplers, and she struggled against more impressive grapplers like Jasudavicius.

"Jasudavicius should be able to put that grind on her put her in uncomfortable positions chain wrestling attempts together and win this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul picks Ariane Lipski as an underdog, arguing that her takedown defense has improved significantly since joining American Top Team, stuffing 21 straight takedown attempts before facing Karine Silva. He believes Lipski is the better striker and can keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes that Jasudavicius struggled to takedown Tracy Cortez and was out struck in that fight.

"I take a flyer on the underdog here for lipsky."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius over Ariane da Silva, noting Jasudavicius's recent decent performances and size advantage. He questions da Silva's consistency and believes Jasudavicius's momentum and reach will carry her to a win.

"I'm going to go Jasmine judicious little bit bigger as well little bit rangier that goes a long way in these lower divisions"
LOSS vs Karine Silva
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 42 of 81 51% 89 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
Ariane da Silva 0 27 of 75 36% 53 of 120 5 of 6 83% 0 0 7:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 7 of 13 53% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 17 23% 15 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:58
2 Karine Silva 0 9 of 18 50% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:39
3 Karine Silva 0 26 of 50 52% 47 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Ariane da Silva 0 13 of 38 34% 15 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 42 of 81 51% 12 of 37 22 of 29 8 of 15 31 of 66 8 of 11 3 of 4
Ariane da Silva 27 of 75 36% 8 of 29 9 of 32 10 of 14 21 of 65 2 of 4 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 7 of 13 53% 4 of 8 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 4
Ariane da Silva 4 of 17 23% 0 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 3 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Karine Silva 9 of 18 50% 1 of 8 4 of 5 4 of 5 9 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 10 of 20 50% 4 of 10 3 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 14 0 of 1 4 of 5
3 Karine Silva 26 of 50 52% 7 of 21 16 of 20 3 of 9 19 of 41 7 of 9 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 13 of 38 34% 4 of 12 4 of 18 5 of 8 11 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva

Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Lipski catches a kick and lands the first punch. Silva lands a jumping kick to the body. Lipski uses her jab and lands a straight right to the body. Silva gets a takedown and winds up in half-guard. Elbows from Silva land. Lipski pushes her opponent off. Silva engages on the ground again and gets into side control. Lipski gives up her neck as Silva is cranking. Lipski gets out of the submission attempt. Silva gets pushed off again, and Lipski gets up. Lipski lands leg kicks and gets into guard. Lipski finishes the round on top, landing a few elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
The two fighters exchange leg kicks on the feet. Lipski uses her jab and goes high with a kick. Silva catches a leg and is forced to give it up after Lipski throws a bunch of punches. Silva is able to throw Lipski to the ground. Silva is in half-guard and in full control of Lipski. Some nice elbows are landing for Silva. Lipski goes for a leg lock. Silva defends well. Silva gets to her feet and lands a few leg kicks. Lipski with a good upkick. Silva lands a damaging body kick as Lipski gets up. Silva drags Lipski back to the ground and has her back. Lipski defends well and survives the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
Lipski comes out swinging as she knows she needs a finish. Silva slows the pace with some leg kicks. Lipski answers with some body kicks. Silva catches a kick and goes for a takedown. Lipski rips her hands free, but the two are still clinched against the fence. A few knees land for Lipski, who then backs away. Silva throws a front kick. Halfway through the round. Lipski landing more kicks but isn't putting Silva in any danger. They clinch again. Silva is just holding on and not doing any damage. Lipski gets back to her feet, although Silva manages to scramble and take the back. Silva looks for a rear-naked choke as the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ariane Lipski via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo bet Karine Silva at +118 underdog, noting she has 17 wins all by stoppage. He believes she can get the fight to the ground and find a submission or ground-and-pound. He gives credit to Ariane da Silva for improving her grappling and takedown defense, but thinks Karine's finishing ability will be the difference. He is confident she wins and notes the line has since flipped to -140.

Bet: at +118 (now -140)
"I bet bet her at plus 118 ... karini Silva is the pick and hopefully you were a premium member so you saw that bet before the line moved"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Cody picks Lipski as a dog, citing her improved takedown defense (stuffed 19 of 20 attempts in last three fights) and volume striking. He believes she can survive Silva's early submission threats and win a decision, noting she has never been submitted.

"I think Arion lipsky is heading in the right direction now"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel is impressed by Silva's 100% finish rate (17 finishes) and her dangerous ground game, including a rare leg lock. He thinks her striking is hittable but she's confident because she's dangerous on the ground. He believes she will finish Lipski, noting that in women's MMA, such finishing upside is huge.

"I think karini Silva is going to come out here and finish Arian lipsky"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Ariane da Silva has shown improved takedown defense, stuffing all 25 takedown attempts in her last five fights. She should be able to keep the fight standing and use her striking to beat Karine Silva. Karine Silva is dangerous on the ground but has holes in her striking. I lean Ariane da Silva by decision.

"I am going to lean ever so slightly to the lipsky side though as I think that she has a good enough takedown defense game here to keep this fight upright"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Paul also picks Lipski, highlighting her three-fight winning streak as an underdog since moving to American Top Team. He notes her takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing, and expects her volume to outwork Silva over three rounds.

"I'll take lipsky as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva, highlighting her consistent finishing ability with five or six submissions in a row. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's wins as over weak competition and notes her submission game is more opportunistic. He believes Silva's ability to force submissions will be the difference, and predicts she will get past da Silva.

"I'm going Karen Silva consistency recent levels of consistency from Karen Silva have superseded ariani lipsky's overall somewhat goodness in fights"
WIN vs Casey O'Neill
Submission (armbar) R2 1:18 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 31 of 74 41% 32 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Casey O'Neill 0 64 of 127 50% 86 of 152 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 28 of 68 41% 29 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Casey O'Neill 0 39 of 93 41% 44 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
2 Ariane da Silva 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey O'Neill 0 25 of 34 73% 42 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 31 of 74 41% 17 of 57 3 of 3 11 of 14 29 of 72 2 of 2 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 64 of 127 50% 45 of 106 16 of 18 3 of 3 37 of 95 9 of 11 18 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 28 of 68 41% 15 of 52 3 of 3 10 of 13 26 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 39 of 93 41% 21 of 73 15 of 17 3 of 3 29 of 81 9 of 11 1 of 1
2 Ariane da Silva 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 25 of 34 73% 24 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 14 0 of 0 17 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo leans Ariane da Silva, noting her recent evolution in grappling and takedown defense. He contrasts her upward trajectory with Casey O'Neill's recent struggles. He fears O'Neill's size but picks Ariane, comparing the fight to Veronica Hardy vs. Jamie Lorth.

"I'm going to lean ariani here... Ariana lipsky is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by second-round TKO, citing a phenomenal stylistic matchup. He notes O'Neill's vicious ground and pound and believes she will take down Lipski and dominate, as Lipski has been finished 4 times and struggles with ground pressure. Brady acknowledges Lipski's recent wins stuffing takedowns but thinks O'Neill's wrestling and volume will be too much. He also mentions O'Neill could knock Lipski out on the feet.

"give me Casey O'Neal to finish this fight by second round at TKO in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Cody picks Lipski as an underdog, citing her recent improvements at American Top Team and her wins as an underdog over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. He notes that O'Neill's wrestling has not been as effective against higher-level competition and that Lipski can keep the fight standing and make it competitive. Cody believes Lipski's volume and clinch elbows could be key, and at +165 she offers value.

"I'm gonna to enact the CF doop model here again Cody Arion lipsky is the pick for me"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Lucrative James picks Ariane Lipski outright. He notes that Lipski's takedown defense has improved dramatically, and if she stuffs takedowns, she will piece Casey O'Neill up on the feet. He believes Casey's path is only via takedown and ground control, but Lipski's improved defense and the value on her as an underdog make her the side. He has already bet Lipski.

"I like Lipski in this spot... I'm picking Ariane Lipski outright."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

The host, who previously faded Lipski, is now on board after her recent improvements. He believes Lipski has a technical striking advantage, better takedown defense, and growing confidence. He expects Lipski to keep the fight standing, land the more damaging blows, and win a decision. He notes that O'Neill is still raw and untested, and that Lipski can provide a similar type of loss as Jennifer Maia did to O'Neill.

Lipski by decision
"I'm officially on the lipsky train and I feel like again somebody is still as raw as untested is you know I don't want to say that fully you know O'Neal she's faced some decent names but she's still yet …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul picks O'Neill but is not confident. He notes that O'Neill has good volume and takedowns against lower-level competition, but her wrestling has been less effective against better opponents. He believes O'Neill should use her wrestling to win but is hesitant because Lipski has improved. Paul expects a competitive fight and thinks O'Neill by decision is likely, but he is not fully confident.

Casey O'Neill by decision
"I'm gonna go end up going with O'Neal by decision yeah just don't feel super confident about it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Ariane Lipski, citing O'Neill's higher volume striking and physicality. He notes O'Neill threw nearly 400 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi, while Lipski's output is lower. He expects a decision win for O'Neill.

"I'm GNA go with Casey O'Neal over ariani lipin... Casey O'Neal puts a way higher volume out there and in women's MMA if it's close they might just just look at the person that's throwing more punches"
WIN vs Melissa Gatto
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 66 of 149 44% 81 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Melissa Gatto 0 85 of 186 45% 100 of 201 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 16 of 49 32% 18 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Melissa Gatto 0 28 of 53 52% 28 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Ariane da Silva 0 26 of 46 56% 39 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Melissa Gatto 0 33 of 66 50% 45 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:16
3 Ariane da Silva 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Melissa Gatto 0 24 of 67 35% 27 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 66 of 149 44% 28 of 101 27 of 36 11 of 12 53 of 131 12 of 15 1 of 3
Melissa Gatto 85 of 186 45% 39 of 117 34 of 50 12 of 19 70 of 165 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 16 of 49 32% 3 of 30 9 of 15 4 of 4 14 of 45 2 of 4 0 of 0
Melissa Gatto 28 of 53 52% 13 of 31 10 of 15 5 of 7 25 of 49 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 26 of 46 56% 10 of 27 12 of 14 4 of 5 18 of 37 8 of 9 0 of 0
Melissa Gatto 33 of 66 50% 11 of 37 17 of 21 5 of 8 23 of 52 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 24 of 54 44% 15 of 44 6 of 7 3 of 3 21 of 49 2 of 2 1 of 3
Melissa Gatto 24 of 67 35% 15 of 49 7 of 14 2 of 4 22 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) based on her last performance against JJ Aldrich, where her hands and wrestling looked great. He acknowledges the logical pick is Melissa Gatto due to Lipski's history of being outgrappled, but he goes against logic. He suggests a plus 3.5 point buy on the scorecard for Lipski as a safer bet.

plus 3.5 points on judges scorecard (potential bet)
"I'm going to go against the logic I'm going to pick lipsky like she looked so good against JJ Aldridge"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He notes Gatto has improved significantly, with better striking and takedown defense, and has power. He points out that Ariane da Silva (Lipski) has been dominated on the ground by fighters like Montana De La Rosa and Antonina Shevchenko, and Gatto's top game is dangerous. He expects Gatto to get on top and finish early.

first round submission
"give me got her to win this fight by first round I'll say sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody sees Lipski as a live underdog. He notes Gatto's low volume (17 significant strikes in nearly 3 rounds against Eubanks) and poor defensive wrestling. Lipski showed improved wrestling at ATT and has high volume (101 significant strikes against Aldrich). Cody thinks if Lipski can stuff takedowns, she wins the striking battle. He also notes Lipski is only 29 and improving.

"I too will take lip ski all right"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel confidently picks Gatto, citing her superior heart, durability, and grappling. He notes Lipski's history of quitting when pressured and her poor defensive grappling, while Gatto showed toughness against Tracy Cortez, reversing positions and landing takedowns. He believes Gatto's chin and submission threat are key, and that Lipski's recent win over JJ Aldrich is overrated. However, he missed the opening line (-150) and won't bet at -230, but expects Gatto to win.

missed the line at -150; Gatto minus 230
"I definitely favorite gato here it's just you know all you guys that came in on that minus 150. that minus 170. you all did your job"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Paul is tempted by the CF dog model. He notes Lipski's last performance against Aldrich was impressive and that Gatto's wins are over low-level competition. He questions if Lipski has turned the corner and thinks the line is off. Paul believes Lipski has a legitimate chance.

"I am tempted for uh to to enact the CF dot model on this one Cody is has ariani lipsky turned the corner here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The Guru picks Melissa Gatto, noting her impressive win over Ariane Lipski via front kick to the body and her submission win over Karol Rosa. He acknowledges her loss to Tracy Cortez but believes she has improved during her year off. He predicts a submission off her back, possibly an armbar.

submission off her back, armbar
"all the logic in the world is pointing me towards Melissa gato here"
WIN vs JJ Aldrich
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 101 of 204 49% 113 of 216 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
JJ Aldrich 0 49 of 99 49% 56 of 106 0 of 12 0% 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 35 of 67 52% 40 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 11 of 20 55% 14 of 23 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:25
2 Ariane da Silva 0 35 of 73 47% 35 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ariane da Silva 0 31 of 64 48% 38 of 71 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
JJ Aldrich 0 18 of 40 45% 22 of 44 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 101 of 204 49% 47 of 134 42 of 56 12 of 14 77 of 176 24 of 28 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 49 of 99 49% 42 of 92 4 of 4 3 of 3 45 of 95 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 35 of 67 52% 17 of 42 15 of 20 3 of 5 22 of 53 13 of 14 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 11 of 20 55% 9 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 35 of 73 47% 15 of 48 15 of 20 5 of 5 30 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 20 of 39 51% 18 of 37 1 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 31 of 64 48% 15 of 44 12 of 16 4 of 4 25 of 55 6 of 9 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 18 of 40 45% 15 of 37 2 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Angelo is very confident in JJ Aldrich, describing her as a solid, dependable grinder who will stick to a game plan and grind forward. He notes she is dangerous nowhere but good everywhere, and despite breaking his rule against betting on women's MMA, he places a 1.5 unit bet at -220. He believes she will win without taking risks.

1.5 unit bet at -220
"I've got a one and a half unit bet that's a lot of money on JJ Aldridge but I got a one and a half unit bet at minus 220. I'm just very confident in her ability to go out …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady is confident in JJ Aldrich, noting she is the much more technical striker with better footwork. He highlights Lipski's huge hole in her ground game, calling it 'atrocious' and noting she has been finished on the mat multiple times. Brady expects Aldrich to mix takedowns and eventually get a late TKO, though he acknowledges decision is more likely.

win by TKO in round 3
"I like Aldrich to have success in the Striking mixing the takedowns win minutes on the on the feet on the mat and I'm gonna say Aldridge eventually gets a TKO here late late fight uh late third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Cody picks Aldrich, citing her training and striking. He notes da Silva's lack of improvement and thinks Aldrich can finish or win a decision. He is cautious about the price but sees Aldrich as a safe parlay piece.

"we're gonna take JJ Aldridge she'll probably be somewhere around like the second or third lot I don't want her on the second"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Connor picks Aldrich confidently, citing her superior striking, takedown ability, and experience. He notes that Lipski has poor takedown defense and tends to focus on punching when pressured, which Aldrich can exploit with clinch work and takedowns. He believes Aldrich is a level above Lipski's previous competition.

Aldrich opened at unknown, now -380 to -450; Lipski +285 to +350. Connor says the odds feel appropriate.
"Aldrich is just too good. Lipsky has yet to beat anybody at this level who even approaches JJ Aldrich's level of ability."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich's footwork, combination striking, and experience should be too much for Lipski. Lipski has struggled against higher-level competition and has been finished in her losses. Aldrich can win on the feet or even on the ground. I expect Aldrich to box her way to a decision victory, controlling the distance and landing the cleaner shots.

"I think a combination of aldrich's output footwork and ability to stay safe at distance is going to overwhelm lipsky here and I think Aldrich boxes her way to a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Paul picks Aldrich, noting her striking advantage and improved wrestling. He thinks she can win standing or on the ground, but is wary of the -450 price. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds prop as interesting.

under 2.5 rounds +165
"JJ Aldridge can win this fight standing she can win this fight to the ground"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich, calling her underrated. He notes she trains with top fighters and performed decently against Blanchfield before getting guillotined. He believes Aldrich is more well-rounded and tougher, and will win a decision by out-grappling and making Ariane da Silva gun-shy.

by decision
"I'm definitely gonna side with JJ Aldridge here being the better more well-rounded fighter overall and a bit tougher"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Zane picks Aldrich, noting that she is a consistent, well-rounded fighter who should handle Lipski's aggressive but flawed style. He points out that Lipski's best win is against Luana Carolina, who is messy, and that Aldrich's takedown threat and counter-striking will be too much.

"Aldrich is just too good. Lipsky has yet to beat anybody at this level who even approaches JJ Aldrich's level of ability."
TKO (punches) R1 1:05 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Priscila Cachoeira 1 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Priscila Cachoeira 1 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Priscila Cachoeira 20 of 35 57% 15 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 18
Ariane da Silva 4 of 15 26% 3 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Priscila Cachoeira 20 of 35 57% 15 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 18
Ariane da Silva 4 of 15 26% 3 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Ariane Lipski
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lipski (-195), Cachoeira (+165)

Round 1
This is another rescheduled fight from last week’s event, with both women moving up a division to keep the bout intact. After a rough start to her UFC tenure, Brazil’s Cachoeira is building momentum with three wins in her last four outings. A former KSW champ, Lipski has been up and down since signing with the Las Vegas-based promotion. Herb Dean is in charge of the contest. Lipski catches Cachoeira with a counter right. Cachoeira lands a right of her own. “Zombie Girl” moves forward to force the brawl she desires and Lipski obliges. That turns out to be the wrong decision, as a left hook from Cachoeira backs up “The Violence Queen.” Cachoeira forces the issue, landing more shots.
Lipski is firing back but leaving herself exposed, and eventually the onslaught from Cachoeira drops her opponent — puncutated by a right to the chin. Cachoeira smells blood, and a barrage of punches and hammerfists on the canvas on a defenseless Lipski brings the show to a close.

The Official Result
Priscila Cachoeira def. Ariane Lipski via TKO (Punches) R1 1:05
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Priscila Cachoeira

Angelo switched his pick from Lipski to Cachoeira due to Lipski's weight cut issues and medical problems. He notes Cachoeira is the more dangerous fighter with heavy pressure and power, and Lipski may not be at 100% after cutting weight twice in a short period.

"i'm full on switching my pick i'm going priscilla cachera here she was always the more dangerous fighter in this matchup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Big Brady picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) to win by first-round submission. He notes that Cachoeira absorbs an absurd 7.91 significant strikes per minute with 45% striking defense, calling her the definition of blocking punches with her face. Lipski hits hard and has a good submission game, and Cachoeira has been submitted twice in the UFC. Brady believes Lipski will take the fight down and submit her easily in the first round.

first round submission
"i think lipski takes the path of release resistance get this fight down to the mat and submits catch aware in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Cody picks Lipski, criticizing Cachoeira's technique and durability. He notes Cachoeira missed weight and had lingering COVID symptoms, which are bad signs. Cody thinks Lipski is better standing and in the clinch, and he cannot bet Cachoeira.

"there's just no world that exists that i want to bet priscilla cachuera it just does it's not happening"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Priscila Cachoeira

Paul picks Cachoeira, having already bet her at +150 and a round three prop at 20-1. He acknowledges she missed weight and had COVID issues but still believes she can win. Paul is sticking with his bet despite the line moving against him.

Cachoeira round three +2000; Cachoeira moneyline +150
"i'm already on catch awara plus 150 the market is moving against me i'm already on catch aware uh 20 to one in round three"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

The host picks Ariane Lipski (Ariane da Silva) over Priscila Cachoeira, citing Cachoeira's weak UFC wins and losses to fighters like Molly McCann and Luana Carolina. He expects Lipski to take the fight to the ground and secure a submission in the first or second round, referencing Lipski's previous dominant submission win over Luana Carolina who also beat Cachoeira.

submission in first or second round
"i can see ariana lipski getting this one to the ground and finding herself a submission victory in the first or second round"
WIN vs Mandy Böhm
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 2 87 of 194 44% 116 of 233 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:26
Mandy Böhm 0 36 of 108 33% 47 of 123 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 17 of 50 34% 44 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
Mandy Böhm 0 12 of 26 46% 17 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
2 Ariane da Silva 1 35 of 72 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Mandy Böhm 0 12 of 41 29% 15 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ariane da Silva 1 35 of 72 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
Mandy Böhm 0 12 of 41 29% 15 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 87 of 194 44% 27 of 106 53 of 73 7 of 15 64 of 157 15 of 23 8 of 14
Mandy Böhm 36 of 108 33% 18 of 84 12 of 16 6 of 8 31 of 101 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 17 of 50 34% 7 of 34 9 of 13 1 of 3 14 of 43 3 of 5 0 of 2
Mandy Böhm 12 of 26 46% 2 of 12 6 of 10 4 of 4 9 of 21 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 35 of 72 48% 10 of 36 22 of 30 3 of 6 25 of 57 6 of 9 4 of 6
Mandy Böhm 12 of 41 29% 8 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 2 11 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 35 of 72 48% 10 of 36 22 of 30 3 of 6 25 of 57 6 of 9 4 of 6
Mandy Böhm 12 of 41 29% 8 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 2 11 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) confidently. He thinks she is a little better everywhere and has a huge experience edge (20 fights vs 7). He notes that Mandy Böhm is undefeated but has no specific elite skill to lean on, and that Lipski's losses came on her back, which he doesn't think will happen here. He placed a 1-unit bet on the moneyline at -121.

Moneyline bet at -121, 1 unit
"ariana lipsky is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Big Brady picks underdog Mandy Böhm, believing her grappling will be the difference. He notes Ariane Lipski has poor takedown defense (42%) and a weak ground game, having been finished on the mat multiple times. He predicts Böhm will exploit this and win by second-round TKO or submission.

second round TKO or submission
"i'm going to take the underdog and mandy baum"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Cody picks Mandy Böhm, citing her superior striking, reach advantage, and underrated wrestling. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's poor takedown defense and low output, calling her 'fraudulent.' Cody notes that Böhm has a year layoff but believes she has the skills to win if she shows up in shape.

"i'm gonna go with mandy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Daniel Levi leans with Ariane Lipski. He notes Lipski has lost twice in a row but those losses were to high-level fighters (Montana De La Rosa, Antonina Shevchenko). He thinks Mandy Böhm is green, with issues getting off the fence and off her back. He credits Böhm's toughness and clinch elbows but believes Lipski's experience will prevail. He says he's not confident enough to bet Lipski but picks her to get back on track.

"i do have to lean with the experience of lipski i just think that experience counts for a lot in this game"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Preet reluctantly picks Lipski because she is the much better striker and has trained at ATT. However, he is concerned about her takedown defense. He thinks Lipski will overwhelm Böhm on the feet and get a TKO in the second round. He likes Lipski by TKO at +500 and under 2.5 rounds at +185.

Ariane Lipski by TKO +500, Under 2.5 rounds +185
"I do think she eventually finds that tko in the second round here by over one overwhelming mandy bomb on the feet uh and getting her out of there lipski by tko is plus 500"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ariane da Silva was dominated on the ground by Antonina Shevchenko, who is not a strong grappler. He believes Böhm's clinch work and cage control will be key. Paul says he cannot bet anyone who gets 'throttled' by Shevchenko.

"i can't bet anybody who gets absolutely throttled in the wrestling department by antonina shivchenko it's just not gonna happen so i'm with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Mandy Böhm

The MMA Guru picks Mandy Böhm over Ariane Lipski, noting Böhm's technical skill, athleticism, and undefeated record. He criticizes Lipski's inconsistency against fundamentally sound opponents. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Böhm.

"i'm going to go with mandy bomb here and she's also evens with ariana lipsky"
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady is confident in De La Rosa, citing her wrestling background and BJJ black belt. He notes Lipski has poor takedown defense (45%) and was dominated on the mat by Antonina Shevchenko, a striker. He believes De La Rosa will take Lipski down at will and submit her, as 75% of her wins are by submission. He is surprised by public betting favoring Lipski.

"gimme montale montana de la rosa by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Cody picks De La Rosa, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lipski's takedown defense issues and that De La Rosa has been scoring takedowns in recent fights. Cody thinks De La Rosa's wrestling will be the difference. He is confident but notes the price is steep.

"i think she's going to be ready for it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Daniel picks Montana De La Rosa due to her massive edge on the ground, noting that Lipski has a huge hole in her ground game and lacks toughness. He acknowledges that Montana's stand-up is not impressive and she often hangs on for dear life, but believes she will get on top, take the back, and ground-and-pound for a finish. Daniel is uncomfortable with the -300 price but still picks Montana to win via submission or TKO on the mat.

"i got montana just because of the big edge on the map"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

De La Rosa has superior wrestling and takedown defense. Lipski has poor takedown defense and is a fish out of water on the ground. De La Rosa will grind out a decision or possibly get a late finish.

De La Rosa by decision +115, De La Rosa inside distance +240
"I think montana del rosa cruises here i think she faces the least amount of resistance on this entire card"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Paul picks De La Rosa, citing her wrestling base and takedown ability. He notes Lipski's poor takedown defense and that De La Rosa has been improving. Paul thinks De La Rosa can get the fight to the ground and control it. He acknowledges the price is high but sees a clear path to victory.

"i think montana gets the takedowns here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The Guru picks Montana De La Rosa, citing her size, youth, and experience against better competition. He thinks she has more options than Ariane Lipski, with good cardio, grappling, and stand-up. He expects a close fight but believes De La Rosa will win a 29-28 decision by grinding against the cage and landing total strikes.

unanimous decision, 29-28
"i think montana de la rosa is going to win the duration of the fight"