Miguel Baeza

Angelo picks Punahele Soriano, citing Miguel Baeza's three-fight losing streak and two-year layoff, with his last two losses being knockouts. He notes that Soriano has power and wrestling, and while he has been losing, he has been active. He thinks Baeza's chin issues and ring rust are too much to overlook, and Soriano's power could be the difference.

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza to win by second-round submission. He notes that Baeza is more well-rounded and skilled, but his chin is worrisome after knockout losses. He expects Baeza to survive the first round and then take over as Soriano gasses. He calls it a 'club and sub' finish.

Cody picks Baeza, noting that Soriano has poor cardio and takedown defense, and is moving down to welterweight after struggling at middleweight. Baeza is a BJJ black belt who has been focusing on grappling during his layoff. Cody believes if Baeza can survive the first round, he can take Soriano down and dominate. He expects Baeza to win by decision or submission.

Daniel leans Baeza as the better talent with a nasty jab and calf kicks, but questions his chin and confidence after recent knockout losses. He notes Soriano has power and could knock Baeza out if Baeza's defense is poor. He calls it a pass due to too many question marks.

Jacob picks Miguel Baeza, disagreeing with Angelo. He argues that even at 60-70% of his former self, Baeza has the tools to box up Soriano, who is coming down in weight. He notes that Baeza is fast and has good grappling, and Soriano lacks the speed to counter him. Jacob has placed a big bet on Baeza, believing he will style on Soriano.

Baeza is more complete with his calf kicking and striking, and Soriano's weight cut to welterweight may slow him down. Baeza should chip away and win a decision, but his durability and long layoff are concerns. Soriano has early KO power, so a hedge on Soriano by KO is possible. Leaning Baeza but likely passing.

Paul picks Soriano by knockout in round one, noting that Baeza has been knocked out before and Soriano has power. He acknowledges Soriano's cardio issues but thinks the move to welterweight could help. Paul bet Soriano by knockout at plus 300 and round one knockout at plus 675, expecting an early finish.

Angelo picks Miguel Baeza, citing his more technical striking and fantastic grappling. He notes that Baeza has good fight IQ and uses kicks well to wear down opponents. He acknowledges Baeza's chin issues but believes his technical edge will be the difference. He warns that Baeza needs to avoid Fialho's power.

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza to win by decision. He cites Baeza's speed, volume, cardio, and BJJ black belt as advantages. He notes that Fialho has power but is hittable, low-volume, and fades as the fight goes on. Brady expects Baeza to outpoint Fialho over three rounds, though he acknowledges Fialho's puncher's chance.

Cody leans towards Fialho, noting his improved striking at Sanford MMA and his power. He thinks Fialho can clip Baeza, who has shown durability issues in prolonged striking battles. However, he lacks high confidence, especially if the fight extends into later rounds.

Daniel Levi leans Miguel Baeza but is hesitant due to Baeza's confidence after two losses, including a KO. He notes Baeza's calf kicks, range, and jiu-jitsu black belt, but worries about his mental state and whether he will be hesitant early. Fialho is dangerous early with power and aggression, but Levi expects Baeza to take over as the fight progresses if he survives the initial onslaught. He is not willing to lay the -185 price.

Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a 'dogger pass'. He notes both fighters have power and chin issues, and expects a striking battle that may not go the distance. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision as potential props.

Angelo slightly leans toward Khaos Williams due to his knockout power, but is worried about Baeza's potential grappling. He notes that Williams has no wrestling data in the UFC, making his takedown defense an unknown. Angelo thinks the odds should be flipped and that Williams has the power and speed advantage.

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza but is hesitant, acknowledging Khaos Williams' power and better chin. He notes Baeza has been hurt in previous fights and questions his chin. However, Brady sees a path for Baeza using his BJJ black belt to exploit Williams' poor takedown defense, mixing in takedowns to win a decision.

Cody believes Baeza will improve after his first loss and has a good game plan: low calf kicks and footwork. He notes Khaos Williams is stationary and heavy on his lead foot, making him vulnerable to leg kicks. He expects Baeza to win by decision or late TKO.

Daniel Levi picks Khaos Williams as the underdog, arguing that Williams has the power advantage and can capitalize on Baeza's tendency to get hit (5 strikes absorbed per minute). He notes that both fighters are hittable but gives Williams the edge in power and believes he can land a fight-changing shot. Levi acknowledges Baeza's calf kicks and black belt but thinks Williams's physicality and pressure will be the difference.

Jacob picks Miguel Baeza, believing he is the cleaner striker and will counter Williams' loaded punches. He notes that Baeza has grappling as a backup and is a jiu-jitsu black belt. Jacob thinks Williams will chase a knockout and get countered, and he loves Baeza in this matchup.

Paul thinks Baeza is a clean striker with volume, but worries about his chin being checked. He notes that Khaos Williams has knockout power but hasn't shown it recently. He leans Baeza but has low confidence.

Big Brady questions whether Ponzinibbio is the same fighter after a long layoff and poor performance against Li Jingliang, where he looked hesitant and was outlanded. He notes Baeza is on the rise, improving each fight, though his competition has been weak. He believes Baeza hits hard and can knock out Ponzinibbio, who has been knocked out twice before. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Baeza by KO.

Cody picks Ponzinibbio as a dog, citing his experience and higher level of competition. He notes Baeza's striking is one-at-a-time and he hasn't faced anyone like Ponzinibbio. Cody is hesitant because Ponzinibbio looked bad against Li and has injury history, but he gives him one more chance. He thinks Ponzinibbio's physical strength and experience will be enough.

Daniel picks Baeza because he believes Ponzinibbio may never be the same after his health issues and three-year layoff. He notes that Baeza is a special prospect with big power, good left hook, calf kicks, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, training with Colby Covington. Daniel points out that Ponzinibbio looked slow and hesitant in his last fight against Li Jingliang, and his defensive flaws are now more exposed. He acknowledges that Ponzinibbio could look better with the ring rust gone, but the uncertainty leads him to favor Baeza, predicting a knockout.

Paul leans toward Baeza, citing Ponzinibbio's long layoff and poor performance against Jingliang Li. He notes Ponzinibbio's suspect chin and low hands. Paul thinks Baeza's youth and power could be key, but acknowledges Ponzinibbio's experience. He is not confident and calls it a lean.

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza by first-round knockout, but is hesitant. He notes that Baeza's leg kicks are a huge factor and that Brown is dangerous on the feet and has a path to victory via takedowns. He compares the fight to the Askarov vs. Kelleher fight where an undefeated fighter got knocked out. He does not agree with Baeza being a -175 favorite and thinks the line should be closer.

Daniel Levi slightly leans with Matt Brown. He acknowledges that Miguel Baeza is super talented and could blow Brown out with a liver kick, but he thinks Brown will drag him into deep waters and drown him. He notes that Brown has historically been weak to the body but has been fighting with his hands down lately. He sees this as a good lesson for Baeza regardless.