UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
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Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 5' 3"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Katlyn Cerminara
4.58 SLpM
34.0% Str. Acc.
4.48 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
0.31 TD Avg
15.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Amanda Ribas
4.26 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.29 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
2.05 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Katlyn Cerminara
Moneyline
FanDuel -172
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetWay +1400
Decision
BetRivers +115
Amanda Ribas
Moneyline
Caesars +160
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1200
Submission
FanDuel +800
Decision
BetWay +275
Katlyn Cerminara - Fight History
LOSS vs Maycee Barber
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maycee Barber 0 66 of 152 43% 99 of 186 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:52
Katlyn Cerminara 0 84 of 150 56% 122 of 189 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maycee Barber 0 22 of 32 68% 29 of 40 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:50
Katlyn Cerminara 0 31 of 48 64% 46 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Maycee Barber 0 24 of 56 42% 40 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Katlyn Cerminara 0 22 of 48 45% 35 of 62 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:52
3 Maycee Barber 0 20 of 64 31% 30 of 74 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
Katlyn Cerminara 0 31 of 54 57% 41 of 64 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maycee Barber 66 of 152 43% 44 of 122 21 of 27 1 of 3 43 of 124 23 of 28 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 84 of 150 56% 59 of 121 18 of 22 7 of 7 44 of 107 36 of 39 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maycee Barber 22 of 32 68% 9 of 18 13 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 15 16 of 17 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 31 of 48 64% 26 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 24 20 of 22 2 of 2
2 Maycee Barber 24 of 56 42% 20 of 50 4 of 5 0 of 1 21 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 22 of 48 45% 12 of 37 6 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 42 5 of 5 1 of 1
3 Maycee Barber 20 of 64 31% 15 of 54 4 of 8 1 of 2 16 of 56 4 of 8 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 31 of 54 57% 21 of 41 8 of 11 2 of 2 19 of 41 11 of 12 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Angelo slightly leans Maycee Barber due to her recent surge and well-rounded game, but warns that Katlyn Cerminara can drag opponents into a boring decision. He thinks Barber is too big a favorite. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.

Over 2.5 rounds might be one of the safest bets on the card.
"I'm going to slightly lean Macy here but that's because of her recent surge she has basically won three fights in the time that Caitlyn has been away"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win, but is scared of the judges. He notes that Barber is younger, more physical, and has power, while Cerminara has zero finishes and low striking accuracy. He expects Barber's power shots to be the difference, but fears a split decision due to Cerminara's history of controversial wins.

"I'm taking Barber I think she does win but the judges scare the crap about out of me on this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody thinks Barber is overvalued and has shown poor takedown defense, while Cerminara is a smart fighter who can mix in takedowns and use her volume and movement. He believes Cerminara can win a close decision by outworking Barber.

"I think you would take the underdog with you look at her last number of fights I guess you know what I mean"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Daniel picks Barber but has no confidence. He notes Barber has power and gets violent when she closes the distance, but she has had controversial decisions and can be held down. He sees Cerminara as a gatekeeper who can outstrike with volume. Daniel is not interested at the price and calls it a no-confidence pick.

"my pick is Macy Barber"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) has a reliable style of staying on the outside, using her jab and kicks, and maintaining high output. She has been out for over a year but is still capable of veteran performances. Barber is on a winning streak but has had controversial decisions and can be taken down and controlled. Cerminara's volume and optics should allow her to win rounds on the scorecards. I expect her to touch up Barber from distance and win a decision. The plus money is appealing.

Cerminara by decision
"I believe Catlin has the chops to go out there and pull off an upset she should be able to utilize her style that she's been famous with which is just staying on the outside and utilizing her output"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul agrees with the CF dog model but has some hesitation because Barber can be a brawler and has shown power. He thinks if Barber comes in aggressive, she could overwhelm Cerminara, but at plus money, he leans toward Cerminara.

"plus 180 CF do model you know taking one fight where she did what I think she's best at and saying that like well why didn't she do and like you know against Jessica I"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, dismissing Katlyn Cerminara as not good and noting her inactivity (last fight in October 2022). He highlights Barber's youth (25), power, and strength, especially since moving to flyweight. He believes Barber's finishing potential and physicality will be too much for Cerminara.

"I'm definitely going to go with Macy Barber"
LOSS vs Manon Fiorot
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manon Fiorot 0 76 of 286 26% 76 of 286 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 98 of 279 35% 99 of 280 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manon Fiorot 0 25 of 86 29% 25 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 29 of 84 34% 29 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Manon Fiorot 0 23 of 94 24% 23 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 43 of 95 45% 43 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Manon Fiorot 0 28 of 106 26% 28 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 26 of 100 26% 27 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manon Fiorot 76 of 286 26% 35 of 223 21 of 40 20 of 23 72 of 278 4 of 8 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 98 of 279 35% 58 of 225 16 of 28 24 of 26 96 of 273 2 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manon Fiorot 25 of 86 29% 13 of 65 5 of 12 7 of 9 25 of 84 0 of 2 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 29 of 84 34% 15 of 64 4 of 10 10 of 10 29 of 82 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Manon Fiorot 23 of 94 24% 12 of 74 5 of 14 6 of 6 21 of 91 2 of 3 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 43 of 95 45% 29 of 76 7 of 12 7 of 7 43 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Manon Fiorot 28 of 106 26% 10 of 84 11 of 14 7 of 8 26 of 103 2 of 3 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 26 of 100 26% 14 of 85 5 of 6 7 of 9 24 of 96 2 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Angelo leans Manon Fiorot, citing her superior striking, power, and takedowns. He acknowledges that Katlyn Chookagian knows how to win decisions and could steal a close fight, but believes Fiorot should be better everywhere. He advises no money or parlays on Fiorot.

"I am gonna pick man in here because she should literally be better absolutely anywhere but if anyone is going to steal a decision on this card it is Caitlyn chikagian"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady picks Fiorot to win by decision. He highlights Fiorot's power advantage and ability to mix in takedowns, noting she took down black belts Jennifer Maia and Mayra Bueno Silva. Cerminara has low striking accuracy (35%) and poor takedown defense (54%). He believes Fiorot can land the more impactful shots and control the fight on the ground if needed.

"I like Fiora here quite a bit I like her to win by decision I don't really see a finish in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Cody is sold on Fiorot, calling her the best in the division not named Valentina. He notes her speed, power, and complete game, and that she has been rolling through opponents. He thinks Chookagian's volume lacks impact and that Fiorot is better in every aspect. Cody expects Fiorot to win and eventually challenge for the title.

"I think fioros the real deal"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Connor picks Cerminara, believing she has improved her boxing and ability to create memorable contact, making her a consistent round winner. He notes that Fiorot is often one-and-done with her striking and leaves openings, which Cerminara can exploit. He sees this as a natural gatekeeper role for Cerminara against a rising prospect.

"I think I'm gonna pick Chookagian. I think she's found her role as the gatekeeper to the elite in this division."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot to win by decision. He thinks Fiorot can match or surpass Katlyn Cerminara's volume while minimizing strikes absorbed, citing Fiorot's 70% defense. He notes Fiorot has takedown defense and has landed takedowns herself. Levi respects Cerminara's experience and ability to win decisions, but believes Fiorot is the more promising fighter with fewer holes. He does not see value at -215 but picks Fiorot to pass this test.

Picks Fiorot by decision.
"my official pick is going to be uh manofio decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Fiorot does the same thing as Chookagian but with more power and efficiency. She has good takedown defense and can redirect momentum. Chookagian may try to grapple, but Fiorot is stronger in the clinch. Fiorot by decision at -110 is a better line than the moneyline.

Fiorot by decision at -110
"give me fiod give me fiod by decision which is -110 much better line than a money line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Paul likely picks Fiorot but is not confident, noting that it could be a close striking battle. He mentions Chookagian's experience and that Fiorot is still improving. Paul thinks Fiorot should win but acknowledges it could be a split decision.

"likely rules but I can't say I got a whole lot of confidence in this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot over Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) by TKO. He believes Fiorot's stand-up is superior and that she will hurt Chookagian with body kicks, then swarm for a TKO. He notes Chookagian's tendency for close decisions and Fiorot's youth and improvement.

TKO
"I'm actually going to go over TKO for man on Fiora here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Zane picks Fiorot, citing her size, power, and ability to make Cerminara uncomfortable. He notes that Cerminara has struggled against good athletes who can get to her, and Fiorot's strength and reach will pose problems. He acknowledges it's a coin flip but leans on Fiorot's power and the fact that Cerminara's recent wins have been against smaller opponents.

"I'm going to pick Manon Fiorot. I think that the fight is ripe for Chookagian to play spoiler, but I still don't trust her to pull that off against somebody who can match her for size and speed."
WIN vs Amanda Ribas
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 63 of 222 28% 71 of 230 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Amanda Ribas 0 55 of 169 32% 84 of 204 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 62 32% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 7 of 34 20% 15 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 61 39% 27 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Amanda Ribas 0 15 of 46 32% 28 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:01
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 19 of 99 19% 19 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 33 of 89 37% 41 of 97 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 63 of 222 28% 42 of 175 20 of 44 1 of 3 56 of 210 7 of 12 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 55 of 169 32% 28 of 124 8 of 23 19 of 22 49 of 156 3 of 7 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 62 32% 13 of 46 7 of 15 0 of 1 17 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 7 of 34 20% 5 of 28 1 of 4 1 of 2 4 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 3
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 61 39% 17 of 48 6 of 12 1 of 1 23 of 57 1 of 4 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 15 of 46 32% 7 of 34 2 of 5 6 of 7 13 of 41 1 of 2 1 of 3
3 Katlyn Cerminara 19 of 99 19% 12 of 81 7 of 17 0 of 1 16 of 94 3 of 5 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 33 of 89 37% 16 of 62 5 of 14 12 of 13 32 of 86 1 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody picks Chookagian, agreeing she is a rightful favorite. He notes Ribas has been matched softly and showed limitations against Marina Rodriguez. He thinks Chookagian will out-volume Ribas on the outside, stuff takedowns, and win a decision. He mentions Chookagian's grappling has improved.

"i think it's probably decision i think it's probably just going to be one of these try to keep ahead on the punch stats and stay to the outside type fights but caitlyn jake again rightful favorite and i uh …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul is very confident in Chookagian by decision, calling it one of his first bets. He notes she out-volumes everyone, only gets finished by elite fighters, and Ribas's wrestling isn't good enough. He says 95% of her win probability is tied to a decision, and the decision prop at +120 is great value.

Chookagian by decision +120
"don't overthink this fight you just take shook by decision and be on your way i mean she pretty much out volumes everyone that she takes on she only ever really gets finished by you know the jessica andrades or …"
WIN vs Jennifer Maia
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 72 of 177 40% 81 of 188 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:34
Jennifer Maia 0 52 of 171 30% 60 of 180 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:14
Jennifer Maia 0 14 of 32 43% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 51 39% 21 of 53 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:20
Jennifer Maia 0 15 of 49 30% 17 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 36 of 85 42% 36 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jennifer Maia 0 23 of 90 25% 24 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 72 of 177 40% 44 of 136 21 of 32 7 of 9 68 of 171 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 52 of 171 30% 31 of 143 5 of 8 16 of 20 48 of 167 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 16 of 41 39% 8 of 32 6 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 1 of 1 6 of 8 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 51 39% 10 of 35 8 of 13 2 of 3 17 of 46 3 of 5 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 15 of 49 30% 9 of 40 2 of 4 4 of 5 12 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 36 of 85 42% 26 of 69 7 of 12 3 of 4 36 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 23 of 90 25% 15 of 80 2 of 3 6 of 7 22 of 89 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Angelo picks Cerminara based on her volume and pace, referencing their first fight where she outstruck Maia even while on her back for half a round. He expects Maia to grapple more but believes Cerminara's takedown defense and striking output will win another decision.

"caitlyn chicago's the pick i think this fight looks very similar to the first fight with a little more emphasis on grappling from maya"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Big Brady expects the fight to play out similarly to their first meeting, with Cerminara using her reach and staying on the outside to outpoint Maia. He criticizes Maia's fight IQ, noting she rarely shoots takedowns despite having good grappling. He thinks Maia could win if she wrestles but does not trust her to do so. He picks Cerminara by decision but is not touching the moneyline due to the close nature of the fight.

"jimmy choo kagan by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody picks Chookagian, highlighting her volume, speed, and improved grappling since the first fight. He doubts Maia's ability to implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, noting Maia's takedown success is overblown. He expects Chookagian to win by decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28. He recommends the decision prop at -120.

Chookagian by decision at -120 on DraftKings
"the minus 180 price tag yeah it doesn't look great but by decision which is where this is very likely headed that doesn't look bad to me whatsoever"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Daniel Levi leans toward Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) but is not confident. He notes that Chookagian's volume and movement at distance will likely edge two rounds, but Maia has a path to victory if she implements her grappling earlier. He mentions Maia's top control and that she won a round against Valentina Shevchenko. Levi thinks the line should be closer and could see Maia winning, but ultimately leans Chookagian.

"i would lean chew kegen to edge two rounds but like it's not gonna surprise me one bit if maya comes out here with a better game plan"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Cerminara's stick-and-move style frustrated Maia. He believes Cerminara's range and movement will be too much for Maia, who hasn't shown significant improvement since their last bout. He notes Maia's takedown success in the third round of their first fight but thinks Cerminara can escape similar positions. The host is confident in Cerminara winning a decision, citing her consistent performance against similar opponents.

"i'm going to be going with catelyn chicagan here and i do believe she wins this fight once again via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul picks Chookagian, expecting a similar fight to their first where Chookagian's volume and reach advantage win rounds. He notes Maia's path is takedowns, but doubts she can secure them early and often. He mentions Chookagian's improved ground game and Maia's inconsistent wrestling. He sees a decision win for Chookagian.

Chookagian by decision at -120 on DraftKings
"i'll go to chicago and say the exact same thing plays out as we had seen before because i can't really trust maya to go in there and secure takedowns early and often"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) to win by decision, citing her superior stand-up and reach advantage (68-inch reach vs Maia's 64-inch). He notes that Maia had a close fight with Jessica Eye, who is on her way out, while Chookagian has beaten Cynthia Calvillo and Antonina Shevchenko. He trusts Chookagian to keep the fight standing and out-strike Maia at range, and he values her activity and recent grappling improvement. He predicts a unanimous decision (30-27).

"i'm gonna go with caitlyn chukagi in here she's got better stand up than jennifer meyer"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 127 of 292 43% 135 of 300 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Viviane Araújo 0 89 of 196 45% 129 of 238 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 37 of 91 40% 43 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 32 of 56 57% 36 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 76 46% 37 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Viviane Araújo 0 22 of 48 45% 58 of 86 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:06
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 55 of 125 44% 55 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 35 of 92 38% 35 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 127 of 292 43% 87 of 236 31 of 46 9 of 10 121 of 286 6 of 6 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 89 of 196 45% 60 of 162 24 of 29 5 of 5 85 of 192 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 37 of 91 40% 21 of 67 13 of 20 3 of 4 33 of 87 4 of 4 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 32 of 56 57% 17 of 38 13 of 16 2 of 2 29 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 76 46% 24 of 62 9 of 12 2 of 2 34 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 22 of 48 45% 19 of 45 2 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 55 of 125 44% 42 of 107 9 of 14 4 of 4 54 of 124 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 35 of 92 38% 24 of 79 9 of 11 2 of 2 34 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Araújo is the better striker with higher volume and power. She also has takedown ability and a black belt in BJJ. Cerminara gets outlanded in most fights and relies on noise to sway judges, but with a crowd that won't work. Araújo's cardio is a concern, but she has been improving. I think she wins a decision.

"I will take viviana rougea to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Chookagian. He emphasizes that Araújo has poor cardio and gives up takedowns when tired. Cody believes Chookagian's improved wrestling and defensive grappling will allow her to control the fight. He notes that Chookagian's volume and ability to stay on the outside will be effective.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes.
"i agree with you this is a spot i like from a monkey knife fight uh perspective and i would hit the double over"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Daniel Levi picks Viviane Araújo as a dog, citing her power, explosiveness, and footwork. He notes that Chookagian struggles when pressured and that Araújo can land big overhand rights. However, he is concerned about Araújo's cardio and whether she can maintain output for three rounds. Levi thinks it's a close fight and a dog-or-pass situation, but leans toward Araújo for a split decision.

dog or pass situation
"i'm going to pick vv as well i i do think it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host is confident in Chookagian, citing her endless cardio, movement, and volume. He thinks she will stay on her bicycle, jab, and leg kick, making Araújo uncomfortable and causing her to gas. He notes Araújo's takedown defense is good but Chookagian's style should nullify her. He predicts a decision win and calls minus 135 a great line.

Chookagian by decision
"i like it or 2k in here minus 135 i think is a great line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul picks Chookagian, noting that she only loses to the elite and has improved her wrestling and grappling. He highlights that Araújo has cardio issues and gives up takedowns when tired. Paul expects Chookagian to use her wrestling to neutralize Araújo's physicality and win the later rounds. He mentions that Chookagian's volume and defensive wrestling will be key.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (54.5 for Chookagian, 37.5 for Araújo). Fight goes to distance at -400.
"the pick officially will be caleb chicago but again this is another interesting opportunity to look at it from a live betting standpoint"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araújo, praising Cerminara's underrated skills and her performance against Valentina Shevchenko. He notes Araújo lacks finishing ability and believes Cerminara's grappling and range will be key. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with caitlyn chukagi in here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 69 of 230 30% 69 of 230 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 60 of 197 30% 60 of 197 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 27 of 72 37% 27 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 80 30% 24 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 17 of 71 23% 17 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 78 23% 18 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 22 of 66 33% 22 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 69 of 230 30% 45 of 190 11 of 22 13 of 18 68 of 227 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 60 of 197 30% 31 of 134 17 of 46 12 of 17 59 of 196 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 27 of 72 37% 11 of 51 7 of 10 9 of 11 27 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 21 of 60 35% 11 of 42 4 of 11 6 of 7 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 80 30% 19 of 71 2 of 5 3 of 4 23 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 17 of 71 23% 8 of 51 6 of 15 3 of 5 17 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 78 23% 15 of 68 2 of 7 1 of 3 18 of 77 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 22 of 66 33% 12 of 41 7 of 20 3 of 5 21 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by decision. He notes Calvillo has good wrestling and Chookagian has poor takedown defense (48%). He thinks Calvillo will take her down and control the fight, though the line is too wide for a close fight.

"the picks calvio by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel picks Calvillo, citing her toughness, improved striking, and ground game. He notes Chookagian has been talking about retirement and was stopped in her last fight. He believes Calvillo is hungrier and will impose her will, especially if she gets top position.

"i'm gonna go with cynthia cavilla calvillo to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by decision, seeing massive value at plus money. He believes her movement and range will cause problems for Calvillo, and that she can keep the fight on the feet or hold her own on the ground. He thinks the line is too wide and that Cerminara has a good chance.

"I'm going to go with Tran to win this fight via decision as uh you know if this fight does primarily play out on the feet she could absolutely steal it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

The MMA Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Calvillo's takedowns will be the difference, as she has evolved and has good grappling. He notes Chookagian may be coming back too soon after a body shot loss, and that Calvillo has wins over top flyweights like Joanne Calderwood.

"going to go with cynthia calvio getting the unanimous decision win"
TKO (body punches) R1 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Oct 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 19 of 53 35% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Katlyn Cerminara 1 28 of 43 65% 62 of 79 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 19 of 53 35% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Katlyn Cerminara 1 28 of 43 65% 62 of 79 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 19 of 53 35% 7 of 35 12 of 18 0 of 0 10 of 41 9 of 12 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 28 of 43 65% 11 of 24 11 of 12 6 of 7 14 of 28 8 of 9 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 19 of 53 35% 7 of 35 12 of 18 0 of 0 10 of 41 9 of 12 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 28 of 43 65% 11 of 24 11 of 12 6 of 7 14 of 28 8 of 9 6 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Andrade despite the size disadvantage, citing her superior wrestling and power. He notes Chookagian has poor takedown defense and is often out-landed but wins decisions due to volume. He expects Andrade to close the distance, get takedowns, and land harder shots, winning a decision. He is wary of judges favoring Chookagian.

"give me androge to win here i'm going to say bye decision i don't think a finish is off the table"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade because she has fought at a higher level in strawweight and has the skills to pressure and beat Cerminara. He worries about Andrade's height disadvantage but believes she can take the fight to the ground and win the later rounds. He expects Andrade to win the second and third rounds, possibly losing the first.

"i think android gets it down against true kagan unless she shows up like a fat pudding and doesn't look good at fly away"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 73 of 108 67% 200 of 240 3 of 3 100% 4 0 10:36
Antonina Shevchenko 0 25 of 64 39% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 24 83% 70 of 77 1 of 1 100% 4 0 4:27
Antonina Shevchenko 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 21 85% 83 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:53
Antonina Shevchenko 0 5 of 6 83% 14 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 63 55% 47 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 54 31% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 73 of 108 67% 55 of 81 12 of 18 6 of 9 22 of 49 4 of 4 47 of 55
Antonina Shevchenko 25 of 64 39% 14 of 50 6 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 59 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 24 83% 17 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 21 85% 16 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 19
Antonina Shevchenko 5 of 6 83% 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 63 55% 22 of 43 9 of 14 4 of 6 20 of 43 2 of 2 13 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 54 31% 11 of 46 3 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.

Not touching from a betting perspective
"I'm gonna go with Shevchenko I think she's a better striker I think she's going to land the harder shots as well the more convincing shots"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.

"i'm gonna agree with you that's gonna be a split decision but i'm gonna edge antonina on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.

Cerminara by decision
"Caitlin shook a key in here she's longer she's rain jeah I think she's gonna get a job done against Antonina Shevchenko"
Amanda Ribas - Fight History
SCHED vs Fatima Kline
UFC Fight Night 281 · Jul 18, 2026
LOSS vs Tabatha Ricci
KO R2 2:59 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 30 of 72 41% 77 of 122 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Tabatha Ricci 0 34 of 76 44% 82 of 140 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 22 of 47 46% 55 of 83 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Tabatha Ricci 0 14 of 42 33% 48 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:39
2 Amanda Ribas 0 8 of 25 32% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 20 of 34 58% 34 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 30 of 72 41% 18 of 57 5 of 6 7 of 9 29 of 68 1 of 4 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 34 of 76 44% 23 of 60 6 of 10 5 of 6 20 of 61 4 of 5 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 22 of 47 46% 13 of 37 5 of 5 4 of 5 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 14 of 42 33% 8 of 33 3 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Ribas 8 of 25 32% 5 of 20 0 of 1 3 of 4 7 of 21 1 of 4 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 20 of 34 58% 15 of 27 3 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 19 4 of 5 10 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas but is split between brain and gut. He notes Ribas is well-rounded with solid takedown defense and striking, while Tabatha Ricci has abandoned her grappling for boxing due to her boyfriend's influence. He believes Ricci's new style is ineffective and Ribas is the better fighter, but acknowledges Ricci's pressure and cardio could cause an upset.

"Ultimately, the pick is going to be Amanda because the reality is while Amanda made a couple of mistakes in her last fight, she is the absolute type of person to feel bad for herself for about five minutes, pick …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady picks Amanda Ribas, believing she is the better striker and grappler. He notes Ribas has a reach advantage and a positive striking differential, while Ricci has low volume and a very short reach. He acknowledges Ribas has chin issues but thinks Ricci lacks power to exploit it. He predicts a decision win.

decision
"I got to go with Heboss here. I think she's just a little bit better everywhere."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Both women are flaky, but Ricci has the ability to work through Ribas's unflashy striking game and could even land takedowns to grind out a decision win.

Ricci by decision
"I think Richi has the ability to work through that unflashy game of Hebos in the striking room. And I think Richi could even land some takedowns to grind Hebos out. So, I'm going to go Reichi and Reichi by …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci despite acknowledging she has been 'gifted' decisions in the past. He notes Ribas's chinny nature and recent submission loss, but is hesitant because Ricci's wins are often controversial. He predicts a close 29-28 decision, possibly a robbery, in Ricci's favor.

"I'm going with Taba Richie to get this one done. She's an industry plant. ... Robbery 2928 decision."
LOSS vs Mackenzie Dern
Submission (armbar) R3 4:56 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mackenzie Dern 0 27 of 46 58% 82 of 107 1 of 3 33% 1 2 4:34
Amanda Ribas 0 17 of 56 30% 99 of 151 2 of 2 100% 0 0 5:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mackenzie Dern 0 12 of 25 48% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Amanda Ribas 0 10 of 33 30% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mackenzie Dern 0 3 of 3 100% 24 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:19
Amanda Ribas 0 3 of 6 50% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:31
3 Mackenzie Dern 0 12 of 18 66% 24 of 35 0 of 1 0% 1 1 1:39
Amanda Ribas 0 4 of 17 23% 35 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mackenzie Dern 27 of 46 58% 13 of 27 3 of 8 11 of 11 18 of 34 1 of 3 8 of 9
Amanda Ribas 17 of 56 30% 10 of 44 1 of 4 6 of 8 14 of 51 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mackenzie Dern 12 of 25 48% 4 of 15 2 of 4 6 of 6 12 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 10 of 33 30% 6 of 26 1 of 3 3 of 4 9 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Mackenzie Dern 3 of 3 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Ribas 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Mackenzie Dern 12 of 18 66% 8 of 11 1 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 7 1 of 3 7 of 8
Amanda Ribas 4 of 17 23% 2 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, noting that she dominated the first fight and has improved her striking since. He believes Ribas is the better striker and wrestler, and that her takedown defense and cardio will be key. He thinks the five rounds favor Ribas, as Dern's danger decreases as the fight goes on. He mentions Jacob had a big bet on Ribas at plus money when she was an underdog.

Jacob had a massive bet on Amanda Ribas at plus money (now -200)
"Amanda heas wins this fight I think it's pretty straightforward and I think the five rounds only benefits Amanda"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady notes that Dern has improved her striking and takedown accuracy since their first fight, but still considers her wrestling and striking not great. He highlights Ribas's elite takedown defense (85%) and her own grappling ability, meaning she won't be afraid to grapple. He predicts Ribas will dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision, though not as dominant as the first fight.

"I got to go heos here um I don't think it's going to look as dominant as one-sided as their first fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Cody leans toward Ribas despite the -200 price, citing Dern's inability to chain wrestle and finish submissions over three years. He notes Dern's mental lapses in later rounds and Ribas's forward pressure and power. He suggests a live bet strategy, expecting Ribas to win rounds 3-5 as Dern fades.

live bet on Ribas after round 2
"I'm leaning towards heus but this minus 200 price tag in the first main event of the year I'm not digging it to be honest"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Connor picks Ribas because she has a fundamental technical advantage on the feet and a style that counters Dern's approach. He notes that Dern's striking defense is nonexistent and she cannot land the same strike twice due to poor technique. Ribas is comfortable trading and landing cleaner counters, as seen in their first fight. Dern's path to victory requires a simple aggressive game plan, but she lacks the technical ability to execute it consistently.

"I'm definitely taking Heebush in the rematch."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel acknowledges Ribas is more technically sound but notes her chinny defect, having been knocked out by multiple opponents. He thinks Ribas will dominate but could get cracked, so he passes on betting. As a pure pick, he goes with Ribas via decision, citing her superior technique and the fact that she usually needs to be finished to lose. He also mentions Dern's improved hands but still favors Ribas.

pass on betting, dog-or-pass situation
"I'm going to go with heos as a pure pick I just think she's more technically sound than McKenzie D in probably every Department"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Lucrative James confidently picks Amanda Ribas, having placed a bet at -160. He believes Ribas is better in all facets of MMA, as shown in their first fight. He notes that five rounds favor Ribas's cardio and experience, though Dern's danger (power, submissions) offsets it slightly. He hasn't seen enough improvement from Dern to change the outcome. He also mentions that the line has moved to -200, giving him CLV.

Bet placed at -160, line now -200
"I played Amanda rebass at minus 160 about a week or two ago"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Ribas is still ahead of Dern and should stop Dern's poor wrestling. Ribas will be more effective and active with her striking, busting up Dern and winning on the scorecards in this rematch from 2019.

"I still believe heos is ahead of where dur is at heos should do a good enough job in terms of stopping the very poor uh wrestling style of D and then from there I think heos can stay more …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Dern's improved focus but still rudimentary wrestling. He highlights Ribas's takedown defense and well-roundedness, and that Dern went 0 for 6 on takedowns in their first fight. He is not excited about -200 but sees Ribas as the rightful favorite.

"I think that uh Amanda heus keeps this standing she's more well-rounded she's been bouncing around from 125 to 115 so this being at 115 um you're going to have full strength full capabilities everything like that for heas I …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The Guru struggles with this pick, initially leaning towards Dern but then recalling that Ribas won the first fight by stuffing takedowns and outstriking Dern. He notes Dern's poor striking and Ribas's suspect chin but ultimately goes with Ribas, predicting a TKO in round 3 or 4. He expresses frustration with the difficulty of the pick.

TKO in round 3 or 4
"ribass won the first fight sorry ribass I'm going with Amanda ribash she stuffed all the takedowns and she beat the [ __ ] out of her let's go Ribas easy"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Zane agrees with Connor, initially seeing an avenue for Dern but concluding that Ribas is the correct pick. He notes that Dern's success comes against opponents terrified of her ground game or those she can outmuscle, but Ribas is not afraid to scrap and will fire back. Dern's lack of technical improvement and inability to finish fights in recent years are key factors. Zane also mentions that Ribas has not changed her style, which works against Dern.

"I'm with you on that. But can't not pick Heebush."
LOSS vs Rose Namajunas
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 83 of 270 30% 137 of 342 4 of 8 50% 0 0 1:38
Amanda Ribas 0 93 of 188 49% 169 of 281 1 of 3 33% 0 1 6:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 16 of 47 34% 30 of 63 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:18
Amanda Ribas 0 23 of 34 67% 35 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:55
2 Rose Namajunas 0 15 of 49 30% 22 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 19 of 39 48% 43 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:00
3 Rose Namajunas 0 18 of 50 36% 31 of 70 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
Amanda Ribas 0 19 of 36 52% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
4 Rose Namajunas 0 10 of 39 25% 29 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 7 of 25 28% 45 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
5 Rose Namajunas 0 24 of 85 28% 25 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 25 of 54 46% 26 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 83 of 270 30% 39 of 195 19 of 42 25 of 33 76 of 259 4 of 6 3 of 5
Amanda Ribas 93 of 188 49% 45 of 124 44 of 60 4 of 4 81 of 176 12 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 16 of 47 34% 8 of 33 2 of 6 6 of 8 14 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 23 of 34 67% 6 of 16 16 of 17 1 of 1 16 of 27 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 15 of 49 30% 7 of 34 3 of 8 5 of 7 14 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 19 of 39 48% 12 of 27 6 of 11 1 of 1 18 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 18 of 50 36% 10 of 39 3 of 5 5 of 6 15 of 44 0 of 1 3 of 5
Amanda Ribas 19 of 36 52% 11 of 26 7 of 9 1 of 1 17 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Rose Namajunas 10 of 39 25% 3 of 28 2 of 5 5 of 6 10 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 7 of 25 28% 4 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Rose Namajunas 24 of 85 28% 11 of 61 9 of 18 4 of 6 23 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 25 of 54 46% 12 of 36 12 of 17 1 of 1 23 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite rooting for Amanda Ribas. He acknowledges Rose's superior skills and accomplishments but is concerned about her mental state and training camp. He notes that Rose has not looked bad in recent losses, being outstruck by a larger striker in Manon Fiorot and having a boring fight with Carla Esparza. He hopes Ribas wins but cannot pick against Rose's talent.

"I got to pick rose rose is going to be the pick Amanda's going to stay in her face hopefully Amanda rips her to the ground and just beats on her and breaks her and wins this fight let's have …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas, stating she is the much better fighter with a better resume. He notes Rose is the better striker, has good grappling, and has gone five rounds before. He points out Ribas is less durable (knocked out three times) and this is her first five-round fight. He predicts a decision win for Rose.

"I got to go Rose here I mean I I just think she's the much better fighter... I'm going to take rose on my un to win this fight and to Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody acknowledges Rose's technical skills and well-rounded game, but highlights her mental inconsistency and tendency to have flat performances like the Carla Esparza fight. He notes that Rose is capable of looking like a -500 favorite or just handing rounds away. He ultimately picks Rose but with hesitancy due to these red flags.

"I will take Rose but again there's always going to be some hesitancy there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Amanda Ribas if the fight goes past the first two rounds, citing Rose's tendency to fade or lose focus when extended. He notes Ribas has better output, wrestling, and durability in later rounds, while Rose's path is an early knockout. He acknowledges Rose's danger but prefers the dog at plus money.

"if this fight gets extended I think that her output's on the higher side as well and it's one of those things where Rose is very momentum based"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Namajunas has superior technical striking and should be able to set traps and land clean shots. Ribas is durable but leaves openings and has been finished by technical strikers before. Namajunas should stop takedowns and control the striking, likely finishing by TKO in the third round. The under on 4.5 rounds is favored, indicating a finish is expected.

Namajunas by TKO (round 3); under 4.5 rounds
"I think we see Nami yunas control this fight in the Striking realm I think she stops the takedowns... and then I think we obviously see Nami unas find that knockout I'm going to call it round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul points out that Amanda Ribas has been bouncing between weight classes and hasn't filled out her frame at 125. He credits Rose's performance against Manon Fiorot, where she fought through a broken hand, and believes Rose will learn from her flat performance against Carla Esparza. He picks Rose but acknowledges the possibility of another lackluster showing.

"I got Rose as well... I'll hope that she's learned her lesson from that absolutely flat performance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Amanda Ribas, citing Rose's shot placement and five-round experience. He thinks Ribas' chin is suspect and that Rose will hurt her on the feet. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after dropping Ribas with a punch.

second round rear-naked choke
"I'm going Rosen am yunas over Amanda Ribas... second round re naked choke to Rose nunas"
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R3 3:53 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 55 of 116 47% 56 of 120 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:11
Luana Pinheiro 1 87 of 224 38% 96 of 234 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 18 of 69 26% 19 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Amanda Ribas 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 40 of 98 40% 40 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Amanda Ribas 0 12 of 27 44% 13 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Luana Pinheiro 1 29 of 57 50% 37 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 55 of 116 47% 36 of 86 11 of 18 8 of 12 51 of 109 4 of 6 0 of 1
Luana Pinheiro 87 of 224 38% 57 of 158 8 of 29 22 of 37 81 of 212 3 of 6 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 25 of 54 46% 17 of 42 4 of 7 4 of 5 24 of 52 1 of 2 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 18 of 69 26% 12 of 51 1 of 8 5 of 10 17 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amanda Ribas 18 of 35 51% 11 of 23 4 of 7 3 of 5 18 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 40 of 98 40% 23 of 64 3 of 14 14 of 20 39 of 96 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Amanda Ribas 12 of 27 44% 8 of 21 3 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 1
Luana Pinheiro 29 of 57 50% 22 of 43 4 of 7 3 of 7 25 of 48 1 of 3 3 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, expecting her to use her size and strength to grind out a win. He notes she is well-rounded with solid takedown defense and cardio. He warns she must stay controlled and not get sucked into a brawl. He also mentions a prop bet on Luana Pinheiro inside the distance.

Bet on Luana Pinheiro inside the distance (decision no action)
"Amanda's going to be the pick here but honestly the bet is going to be Lanna Panera inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady thinks Ribas is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, grappling, cardio—but her chin is very bad, having been dropped and knocked out multiple times. He finds it hard to pick Pinheiro, who he doesn't think is that great, to win by knockout. He predicts Ribas wins by decision but calls it a sketchy fight due to durability concerns.

"I'm going to pick heos to win this fight by decision but a sketchy fight to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Cody picks Amanda Ribas, citing her takedown offense and volume striking. He notes that Pinheiro is a front-runner who tires, and Ribas can mix in takedowns and striking to win. He acknowledges Ribas took damage in her last fight but believes she has the dog in her to win.

"I'll pick heus as well to win on volume and just that she has that hashtag dog in her"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Pinheiro has good striking power and can hurt Ribas on the feet. Ribas's grappling is a threat, but Pinheiro is strong enough to keep it standing. Pinheiro's power punches can find the button and knock Ribas out, likely in the second round. The line is too wide; Pinheiro has value at plus money.

win by knockout
"give me Pinero and I think I'm going to go down a limb here uh and I'm going to take her to win this fight by knockout low confidence but I think she can find the button on heos and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas, noting her takedown accuracy and ability to grind. He points out that Pinheiro gasses and has questionable durability. Paul believes Ribas can take her down, tire her, and open up striking. He mentions Ribas' loss to Barber but thinks Pinheiro lacks that finishing ability.

"I'm going to end up going with heos"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas despite concerns about her chin after being knocked out at flyweight. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's record as padded, noting her controversial win over Michelle Waterson and a fake knockout against Randa Markos. He believes Ribas has a massive reach advantage and that Pinheiro lacks the power to finish her, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

decision 29-28
"I am going to go Amanda Ribas here... I don't see Pinheiro having the power to finish her at this point so I'm going to go Ribas wins a decision 29-28."
LOSS vs Maycee Barber
TKO (punches and elbows) R2 3:42 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maycee Barber 0 35 of 74 47% 43 of 85 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:25
Amanda Ribas 0 81 of 124 65% 93 of 139 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maycee Barber 0 22 of 42 52% 26 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:13
Amanda Ribas 0 35 of 62 56% 41 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
2 Maycee Barber 0 13 of 32 40% 17 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:12
Amanda Ribas 0 46 of 62 74% 52 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maycee Barber 35 of 74 47% 21 of 52 7 of 14 7 of 8 30 of 68 5 of 6 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 81 of 124 65% 70 of 108 5 of 10 6 of 6 32 of 60 6 of 9 43 of 55
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maycee Barber 22 of 42 52% 11 of 27 6 of 9 5 of 6 19 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 35 of 62 56% 28 of 55 1 of 1 6 of 6 14 of 28 2 of 5 19 of 29
2 Maycee Barber 13 of 32 40% 10 of 25 1 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 46 of 62 74% 42 of 53 4 of 9 0 of 0 18 of 32 4 of 4 24 of 26
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her better Jiu-Jitsu, higher level of competition, and solid takedown defense. He notes Maycee Barber has been taken down nine times in the UFC and two of her wins were questionable decisions. He expects Ribas to come forward, stay busy, use takedowns, and win an easy decision. He also calls it an over 2.5 rounds play.

over 2.5 rounds
"Amanda hebos is sitting at a comfortable minus 185 and that honestly makes a ton of sense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady picks Amanda Ribas, citing her superior wrestling and BJJ. He notes Barber's poor takedown defense (47%) and that she was taken down five times by Andrea Lee. He believes Ribas will easily take Barber down and control her on the ground, unlike Andrea Lee who let Barber get up. He predicts a decision win but warns that judges favor Barber.

"give me he boss to win this fight Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Ribas. He highlights Barber's takedown defense issues, especially against Andrea Lee, and believes Ribas's superior jiu-jitsu and top control will be decisive. He notes the minus 200 price is not a betting opportunity but for the show he picks Ribas.

"I'll pick he was in it really kind of comes down to the Andrea Lee five takedowns."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Connor picks Ribas, agreeing with Zane that Ribas is the better fighter. He highlights Barber's awkwardness and physicality but notes that Ribas is a legitimate takedown artist and better grappler. Connor points out that Andrea Lee took Barber down five times, which bodes well for Ribas. He sees a small margin for error for Ribas due to Barber's power and toughness, but expects Ribas to win via superior technique.

Ribas is more likely to finish via submission; Barber unlikely to KO Ribas cleanly. Fight likely goes to decision.
"I side with you on that."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Ribas, citing her technical superiority everywhere the fight goes. He notes Barber's power but believes Ribas's grappling will be the difference, as Barber was taken down five times by Andrea Lee. He thinks Ribas will get takedowns and control the fight, possibly finishing. He mentions he got in at -145 and considers -200 a dog-or-pass situation.

Got in at -145; now dog or pass at -200.
"pure pick hebosh but I think at Plus 170. it's dog or pass like I said you got in minus 145 you did your job"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The host picks Amanda Ribas to win by decision. He believes Ribas is a far superior grappler and that she can take Barber down and control the fight from top position. He notes Barber's takedown defense issues and thinks Ribas's pressure and pace will be key. He acknowledges Barber's power and explosivity on the feet but expects Ribas to grind out a decision victory.

"I fully expect he boss to control the majority of this fight and take home a decision victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas, emphasizing her wrestling and grappling to neutralize Barber. He notes Ribas's improvements and her ability to take down opponents, while Barber has plateaued and struggles with takedown defense. He thinks the plus money on Barber is tempting but can't get there.

"I gotta go with hebis man if we're looking at a stylistical approach she's got the style she's got the the wrestling and she's got the grappling to just neutralize Barber."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The Guru initially leaned Maycee Barber but switched to Amanda Ribas after counter-arguing his own points. He notes Ribas has a better chin at flyweight, a big advantage on the ground, and outpoints at range with reach. He criticizes Barber's win over Miranda Maverick as a robbery and points out that Maverick was recently dominated by Jasudavicius, undermining Barber's credentials. He also mentions Ribas' wins over Araujo and Jandiroba, and her competitive fight with Chookagian.

"I was gonna pick Macy Barber to win but I'm not sure now I'm picking Amanda rib ass now"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Zane picks Ribas, comparing the matchup to Jaco vs Eric Anders. He notes Ribas is the better technical fighter with superior wrestling and grappling, and expects her to come out ahead in the chaotic exchanges. He acknowledges Barber's athleticism and toughness but believes Ribas's transitional grappling and ability to work on the ground will be decisive. Zane sees Barber's technical limitations and poor wrestling as key vulnerabilities.

Ribas opened -154 now -191; Barber +121 to +170. Likely decision, but Ribas could submit Barber.
"I got I think I got to pick Hiebesch in what will be like a pretty car crashy kind of fight."
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 46 of 115 40% 86 of 162 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 98 of 183 53% 205 of 320 2 of 2 100% 0 0 8:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 18 of 48 37% 35 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 31 of 71 43% 48 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:25
2 Amanda Ribas 0 4 of 8 50% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 9 of 15 60% 81 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:40
3 Amanda Ribas 0 24 of 59 40% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 58 of 97 59% 76 of 117 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 46 of 115 40% 37 of 105 5 of 6 4 of 4 45 of 114 0 of 0 1 of 1
Viviane Araújo 98 of 183 53% 71 of 149 11 of 16 16 of 18 93 of 176 0 of 0 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 18 of 48 37% 13 of 42 3 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 31 of 71 43% 20 of 58 4 of 4 7 of 9 31 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Amanda Ribas 4 of 8 50% 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Viviane Araújo 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 6
3 Amanda Ribas 24 of 59 40% 21 of 56 1 of 1 2 of 2 24 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 58 of 97 59% 44 of 78 6 of 11 8 of 8 58 of 97 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her faster striking and better cardio. He notes that Viviane Araújo is more dangerous early but fades as the fight goes on. Angelo believes Ribas can point her way to a decision if she stays on the outside and works her striking.

"Amanda he boss is going to win this fight um I think the odds are probably probably good"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo but is hesitant due to her cardio issues. He notes she has 90% takedown defense and is the better striker, but she tends to slow down after the first round. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Araújo, acknowledging Ribas may take the third round.

"I will take Vivian every yujo to win this fight by 28 29-28 decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Cody picks Araújo, believing her takedown defense and striking will be enough to keep the fight standing and win rounds. He notes her cardio issues but thinks she can win two of three rounds. He sees value at plus money.

"I'm gonna go with Viviana ruizio actually it's basically a pick em type fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Connor picks Viviane Araújo, believing her improved striking and range management will allow her to outwork Ribas. He notes that Ribas's striking is technically poor and she relies on aggression and transitions, but Araújo's takedown defense is solid and she is a better athlete. Connor thinks Ribas will struggle to get the fight to the ground and will be picked apart on the feet.

"I guess I I like I like Viviana here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Jacob picks Amanda Ribas but is scared, noting that Araújo is dangerous early and hits hard. He believes Ribas can take over in the second and third rounds as Araújo's cardio fades. Jacob does not have a straight bet on Ribas due to the risk.

"I'm picking Amanda but honestly I'm scared out of my mind"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Araújo is a solid striker with good power and leg kicks. Ribas has average striking and gets flustered against better strikers. Araújo's takedown defense should hold up, keeping the fight standing where she has the advantage, and she wins a decision.

"I think her more effective striking style is going to allow her to distance herself from he boss here... I think that we'll see Russo just beat her to the punch over and over again battering her on route to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas, citing her youth and takedown ability. He thinks she can get takedowns and control the fight. He acknowledges it's a close fight and won't bet it, but for picks he goes with Ribas.

"I'll be picking hibis but uh but yeah not not one that I feel like I can really attack"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas, citing her youth and potential versus Araújo's age. He believes Ribas has a submission advantage and a better chin, predicting a close 29-28 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Amanda Ribas over Vivian arawaho... I think she gets this one done by again a close 29-28 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Zane also picks Araújo, agreeing that her improved striking and ability to stay at range will be key. He notes that Ribas's best wins are against lower-level competition and that her grappling success may not translate against Araújo's strong takedown defense. Zane adds that Araújo is more accurate and self-contained, and Ribas's aggressive style will leave her open to counters.

"I think I got a pic vivier Aja."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 63 of 222 28% 71 of 230 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Amanda Ribas 0 55 of 169 32% 84 of 204 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 62 32% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 7 of 34 20% 15 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 61 39% 27 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Amanda Ribas 0 15 of 46 32% 28 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:01
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 19 of 99 19% 19 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 33 of 89 37% 41 of 97 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 63 of 222 28% 42 of 175 20 of 44 1 of 3 56 of 210 7 of 12 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 55 of 169 32% 28 of 124 8 of 23 19 of 22 49 of 156 3 of 7 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 62 32% 13 of 46 7 of 15 0 of 1 17 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 7 of 34 20% 5 of 28 1 of 4 1 of 2 4 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 3
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 61 39% 17 of 48 6 of 12 1 of 1 23 of 57 1 of 4 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 15 of 46 32% 7 of 34 2 of 5 6 of 7 13 of 41 1 of 2 1 of 3
3 Katlyn Cerminara 19 of 99 19% 12 of 81 7 of 17 0 of 1 16 of 94 3 of 5 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 33 of 89 37% 16 of 62 5 of 14 12 of 13 32 of 86 1 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody picks Chookagian, agreeing she is a rightful favorite. He notes Ribas has been matched softly and showed limitations against Marina Rodriguez. He thinks Chookagian will out-volume Ribas on the outside, stuff takedowns, and win a decision. He mentions Chookagian's grappling has improved.

"i think it's probably decision i think it's probably just going to be one of these try to keep ahead on the punch stats and stay to the outside type fights but caitlyn jake again rightful favorite and i uh …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul is very confident in Chookagian by decision, calling it one of his first bets. He notes she out-volumes everyone, only gets finished by elite fighters, and Ribas's wrestling isn't good enough. He says 95% of her win probability is tied to a decision, and the decision prop at +120 is great value.

Chookagian by decision +120
"don't overthink this fight you just take shook by decision and be on your way i mean she pretty much out volumes everyone that she takes on she only ever really gets finished by you know the jessica andrades or …"
Expert Picks (2)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody picks Chookagian, agreeing she is a rightful favorite. He notes Ribas has been matched softly and showed limitations against Marina Rodriguez. He thinks Chookagian will out-volume Ribas on the outside, stuff takedowns, and win a decision. He mentions Chookagian's grappling has improved.

"i think it's probably decision i think it's probably just going to be one of these try to keep ahead on the punch stats and stay to the outside type fights but caitlyn jake again rightful favorite and i uh i would also go with her to win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul is very confident in Chookagian by decision, calling it one of his first bets. He notes she out-volumes everyone, only gets finished by elite fighters, and Ribas's wrestling isn't good enough. He says 95% of her win probability is tied to a decision, and the decision prop at +120 is great value.

Chookagian by decision +120
"don't overthink this fight you just take shook by decision and be on your way i mean she pretty much out volumes everyone that she takes on she only ever really gets finished by you know the jessica andrades or the valentina chevchenkos um rebus's wrestling isn't really great enough …"