Career Averages - Viviane Araújo
Career Averages - Andrea Lee
Viviane Araújo
Andrea Lee
Viviane Araújo - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:43 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 65 of 103 | 63% | 102 of 143 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 8:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:43 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 23 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 2:52 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 25 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 30 of 40 | 75% | 54 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 22 of 51 | 43% | 16 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 65 of 103 | 63% | 53 of 82 | 8 of 14 | 4 of 7 | 24 of 53 | 2 of 5 | 39 of 45 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 15 of 20 | 75% | 10 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 12 of 29 | 41% | 8 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 20 of 43 | 46% | 15 of 33 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 15 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 30 of 40 | 75% | 28 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 28 |
Angelo slightly picks Tracy Cortez because he expects her grappling to wear down Viviane Araújo as the fight goes on, given Araújo's cardio fades and she is 38 years old. He acknowledges that Araújo is the better striker and has good takedown defense, but thinks Cortez can grind out a win. He also suggests the over on the round line is a safe bet, noting that women's fights often go over.
Big Brady thinks Cortez is the better striker and younger, and expects the fight to take place at distance where Cortez will outland Araújo. He notes Araújo has been outlanded at distance in recent fights and is 38 years old. Brady believes Cortez can also mix in takedowns. However, he is surprised by the -230 line, thinking it's too wide, but still picks Cortez to win by decision.
The host is leaning Cortez, believing her wrestling will break down Araújo and lead to dominant second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards.
The host picks Tracy Cortez but is hesitant, expecting a close competitive decision. He notes that Cortez has crisper boxing while Araújo is more well-rounded, and that the fight is likely to be a 29-28 decision. He is tempted by Araújo's underdog odds but ultimately goes with Cortez, believing the judges will favor her in a close fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 48 of 85 | 56% | 105 of 152 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 58 of 132 | 43% | 76 of 155 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 3:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 22 of 65 | 33% | 22 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 49 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 16 of 20 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 36 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 38 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 48 of 85 | 56% | 34 of 70 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 41 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 |
| Karine Silva | 58 of 132 | 43% | 26 of 83 | 10 of 19 | 22 of 30 | 45 of 117 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 17 of 30 | 56% | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Karine Silva | 22 of 65 | 33% | 10 of 43 | 1 of 6 | 11 of 16 | 21 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 14 of 25 | 56% | 11 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Karine Silva | 11 of 15 | 73% | 8 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 17 of 30 | 56% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Karine Silva | 25 of 52 | 48% | 8 of 29 | 7 of 10 | 10 of 13 | 17 of 42 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-258), Araujo (+210)
Round 1
It’s a battle of momentum as the main card rails on, with Araujo (12-6, 6-5 UFC) struggling at the upper echelon of the flyweight division as of late. The same cannot be said for the younger Silva (18-4, 4-0 UFC), who has cruised through opposition with three subs in her four UFC wins to date. Referee Marc Goddard draws the charge for this 125-pound contest, and it kicks off as the ladies touch ‘em up. Silva marches forward behind a front kick to start, and she aims it a few more times to keep Araujo away from her. Silva uses it to try to close the distance and wrap up her opponent, but Araujo gets away. Silva slaps her with a leg kick, and a second is met with a one-two. Silva crashes the pocket and gets off a leg kick, and she whiffs with a huge overhand right. Araujo splits the guard with a right hand, and Silva pays it no mind and keeps plodding onward. Silva sticks out a jab, and Araujo puts three punches on her before sliding to the side. Silva crashes forward, and Araujo is able to wriggle away before getting clinched. Silva kicks at the front leg and is countered by her fellow countrywoman, and she keeps chasing until getting tagged with a straight right hand. Silva again shakes off the strong strike and trades a low kick with her foe. Araujo steps to the side and sinks in a right hand around the guard, and she stays away from a number of inaccurate kicks. Silva does reach her with a low kick, and the high kick that follows is easily blocked. Araujo moves from side to side, not falling into a pattern and easily shrugging off a Silva shot. Araujo rings her opponent’s bell with a one-two, and Silva does not slow with her constant kick approach. Silva gets off a left hand, and the swings that follow all go wide. Silva paws out with a big right hand, clubbing “Vivi” on the side of the dome. A second shakes Araujo up further, and Silva stalks her down and hits her a third time. Araujo strikes back, and is warned for outstretched fingers. The horn sounds as Silva rushes into attack, and they crash heads together when Goddard grabs them, resulting in a bloody nose for Araujo.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 2
Silva starts off the round as aggressive as ever, with her front kick immediately drawing more blood from Araujo’s nose. Araujo rushes into action, fighting behind several punch combinations that all connect before Silva can strike back. Araujo hammers the front leg with a kick, and Silva runs towards her and gets hold of her against the fencing. Araujo escapes before absorbing anything of note, but blood is trickling out of that nose quicker than before. Araujo backs Silva off with a one-two, and a second two-strike combo finds the mark as Silva rushes towards her. Silva blasts Araujo in the face with an overhand right, and Araujo backs up into the wall and has no way to escape the second that catches her cleanly. When Silva tries to use the close proximity to take the fight down, Araujo repeatedly grabs the fence to keep herself afloat. Silva sells out for a throw, and Araujo turns her around. Silva uses the body lock to lower Araujo to the floor, her own nose bloodied as well. Araujo gets busy off her back with punches, and she throws her legs up and grabs hold of an armbar. Araujo rolls to her stomach and flips Silva over, and she goes belly-down to almost complete the submission. Silva keeps pushing through it, turning the proper direction to survive the maneuver and reposition herself to side control. With Araujo’s nose busted, she gasps for air with her mouth open. Silva transitions her way to north-south position, and she wraps up a brabo choke when Araujo sits up. Silva rolls to her back to lock things up, and Araujo fights her arms and pushes off the knee to get some space. Araujo turns through it to get into north-south, and she considers wrapping up an armbar or another armlock. Araujo opens it up with several unblocked punches, ending the round sitting on Silva’s face but not in a fun way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 3
The Brazilians hug it out to begin the last round, with scores possibly all over the map. Silva marches forward and shoots in for a takedown with Araujo jabbing her, and the ensuing scramble results in Araujo winding up on top somehow. A bit of blood on both women plus fatigue equals strange positioning. Araujo bails on the position and backs off, allowing Silva to stand. Araujo backs off and lands a low kick and a right hand, and Silva jabs her back in the midsection. Araujo reaches out with a right hand over the top, and Silva’s responses are labored and flailing. Araujo catches a front kick and tosses Silva to her back, with Silva appearing to flop to her back in part due to exhaustion. Silva puts her hands behind her head, with Araujo kicking her legs until Goddard stands her up. Araujo leans back from a head kick to boot Silva in the ribs, and they trade kicks until Araujo drills her with an uppercut. Silva plods forward and absorbs a solid right hand, and she takes a step back and launches several front kicks that all come up short. Araujo kicks the front leg, and she catches a kick her direction and tosses Silva to the mat. Silva again needs Goddard to get between them and let her up, and the fans in the building do not approve of Silva’s strategy. Silva walks into punches and kicks, her face swelling up with a mouse growing on her forehead. Silva’s front kick is swatted away, and she flops to her back. Araujo tells her to stand back up, and she watches Silva’s labored punches soar past her. Silva uses them to get hold of Araujo, and she drives a knee into her jaw. Silva gloms onto her opponent in the clinch, with the occasional knee coming until Araujo head-and-arm throws her to the ground. Silva lands strangely with her head squished against the cage floor and wall, and she is held there until the strange fight closes. Judges may have their hands full here.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (30-27 Araujo)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Araujo)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Silva)
The Official Result
Viviane Araujo def. Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Karine Silva, noting her powerful grappling and constant submission threats. He acknowledges Viviane Araújo is tough with good takedown defense, but believes Silva will get timely takedowns. He finds the -265 odds too steep to bet and is unsure about prop bets due to Silva's finishing rate.
Big Brady picks Karine Silva, noting that Viviane Araújo is older and slowing down. He acknowledges Araújo's elite takedown defense and good striking volume, but believes Silva has more power and can get takedowns. He thinks Silva's cardio is better than Araújo's, who has slowed in many fights. He predicts a decision win for Silva, though he admits the line is too wide.
Cody picks Karine Silva, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take down and neutralize opponents. He notes Araújo is 38 and has been taken down by lesser grapplers, but Silva's striking is not great and she may struggle to finish. Cody expects a decision win for Silva, possibly by submission if she gets the neck.
Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that she has more dynamic moments and can out-wrestle Araújo. He notes that Araújo's striking is predictable and she struggles against athletic opponents. Connor thinks Silva's reactive takedowns and submission threat will be key.
Vreeland picks Silva because Araújo has struggled against younger, faster opponents. He notes Araújo's only recent win was over Jennifer Maia due to a speed advantage, but Silva is not slower. Silva has good volume, speed, and grappling, including a dangerous guillotine. Vreeland thinks Silva's all-around game will be too much for Araújo.
Daniel Vreeland picks Karine Silva, citing her dominance in getting fights to the mat and her submission threats. He acknowledges Araújo's takedown defense and striking output but believes Silva's assertiveness and ability to dictate the pace will lead to a win. He does not confidently predict a submission but expects Silva to control the fight.
Fox picks Silva, calling her 'killer' and noting she is good everywhere and finishes fights. He agrees with Vreeland that Silva is the better fighter and expects her to win.
Lucrative James picks Karine Silva confidently, noting she is on an upward trajectory while Araújo is declining. He believes Silva has sharper BJJ and can capitalize on Araújo's takedown attempts to take the back or snatch a front choke. He also thinks Silva can land a knockdown on the feet, as Araújo gets hurt often. He predicts Silva wins inside the distance, though a close decision is possible. He sees value in Silva at -275 compared to Oliveira at the same odds.
The host thinks Silva is not as good as the odds suggest but believes her eventual grappling approach in the second and third rounds will wear out Araújo, who may have early striking success. He predicts Silva grinds it out, possibly getting a submission but officially wins by decision.
Paul leans toward Karine Silva but has reservations. He notes Silva's grappling is solid but she lacks ground and pound, and Araújo has never been submitted. Paul thinks the fight could be competitive and might go to a split decision, so he's considering a split decision prop. He's not confident enough to bet heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo as an underdog, not sold on Karine Silva's hype. He notes Araújo's competitive fights with Natalia Silva and Alexa Grasso, and believes she can survive Silva's grappling. He doubts Silva's finishing ability.
Zane picks Silva, noting that both fighters are processless but Silva has more dynamic opportunities. He thinks Silva's speed and opportunistic grappling can catch Araújo, who is one-dimensional and losing athleticism. Zane believes Silva has a better chance of finishing or winning rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 26 of 67 | 38% | 63 of 110 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 6:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 38 of 128 | 29% | 65 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 36 of 43 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 8 of 32 | 25% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 9 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 18 of 58 | 31% | 27 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 26 of 67 | 38% | 20 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 38 of 128 | 29% | 24 of 103 | 8 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 38 of 128 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 8 of 32 | 25% | 5 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 9 of 21 | 42% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 12 of 38 | 31% | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 9 of 31 | 29% | 8 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 18 of 58 | 31% | 9 of 44 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very high on Natália Silva, calling her a potential top-five fighter. He notes her footwork, takedown defense (92%), and power that carries into later rounds. He believes she will outclass Viviane Araújo everywhere and get the win.
Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He notes that Silva is 10 years younger and has better cardio, while Araújo slows down significantly as fights go on. He expects the fight to be competitive early, possibly with Araújo trying to wrestle, but Silva will take over as the fight progresses and win a decision.
Cody picks Silva, praising her evolution and athleticism. He notes Araújo's cardio issues and inconsistency, expecting Silva to win a decision or possibly get a late finish. He likes Silva by decision prop to avoid the heavy moneyline.
Silva has looked unstoppable in the UFC with her lateral movement, kicks from distance, and submissions off her back. Araújo is a crisp striker early but fades as fights go on, and Silva's volume and output should allow her to win a decision. The host suggests playing Silva live if Araújo wins round one, or using her as a parlay piece.
Paul picks Silva by KO, taking a small stab at +540. He notes Silva's power and Araújo's toughness but thinks Silva's evolving skill set can get the finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is too steep.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Viviane Araújo, despite a bizarre tangent about fighters' relationship status. He acknowledges Araújo is good but believes Silva has the skill level to make something happen. He notes Silva's wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Andrea Lee, and thinks Araújo may be on the downswing. He predicts a decision win for Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 41 of 101 | 40% | 60 of 126 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 64 of 100 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 7:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 28 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 24 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 24 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 41 of 101 | 40% | 29 of 87 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 31 of 88 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 24 of 46 | 52% | 15 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 24 of 58 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 14 of 30 | 46% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 17 of 38 | 44% | 14 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 29 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 8 of 14 | 57% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Jennifer Maia, calling her at -141 a great deal. He thinks she is better everywhere except raw takedowns, and expects her to weather Araújo's early storm, take over striking, and win a decision due to superior cardio. He already placed a unit on her and expects the line to widen.
Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo with little confidence. He likes her striking and wrestling advantage early, but worries about her poor cardio and durability. He expects Araújo to win the first round, Maia the third, and the fight to go to a close decision that could be affected by judges.
Cody picks Araújo, citing her superior speed and technique. He notes that at her best, she is faster and cleaner than Maia, and can mix in takedowns to steal rounds. He acknowledges her past cardio issues but believes she has corrected them in recent fights, pointing to her performances against Andrea Lee and Alexa Grasso. He expects a 15-minute fight and thinks Araújo can win two of three rounds.
The host picks Jennifer Maia, citing her superior experience, cardio, and ability to withstand Araújo's early striking. He expects Maia to take over in the second and third rounds, possibly using takedowns to wear on Araújo. He predicts a decision win for Maia.
Paul leans towards Maia based on her high volume in recent fights (109 and 145 significant strikes). He acknowledges Araújo's takedown threat but notes that judges now require control time and damage from top position. He expects a close decision and thinks Maia's volume will edge it. He also mentions the over 2.5 rounds at -450 as a potential play.
The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Viviane Araújo. He thinks Maia has better boxing and is scrappier. He notes Araújo is on a two-fight losing streak and didn't look good against Amanda Ribas, while Maia is on a two-fight winning streak, including a win over Casey O'Neill. He expects a decision win for Maia, calling it a coin flip but leaning her way due to momentum.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 46 of 115 | 40% | 86 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 98 of 183 | 53% | 205 of 320 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 8:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 35 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 48 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 81 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:40 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 58 of 97 | 59% | 76 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 46 of 115 | 40% | 37 of 105 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 45 of 114 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 98 of 183 | 53% | 71 of 149 | 11 of 16 | 16 of 18 | 93 of 176 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 18 of 48 | 37% | 13 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 31 of 71 | 43% | 20 of 58 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | 31 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 9 of 15 | 60% | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 24 of 59 | 40% | 21 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 58 of 97 | 59% | 44 of 78 | 6 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 58 of 97 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her faster striking and better cardio. He notes that Viviane Araújo is more dangerous early but fades as the fight goes on. Angelo believes Ribas can point her way to a decision if she stays on the outside and works her striking.
Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo but is hesitant due to her cardio issues. He notes she has 90% takedown defense and is the better striker, but she tends to slow down after the first round. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Araújo, acknowledging Ribas may take the third round.
Cody picks Araújo, believing her takedown defense and striking will be enough to keep the fight standing and win rounds. He notes her cardio issues but thinks she can win two of three rounds. He sees value at plus money.
Connor picks Viviane Araújo, believing her improved striking and range management will allow her to outwork Ribas. He notes that Ribas's striking is technically poor and she relies on aggression and transitions, but Araújo's takedown defense is solid and she is a better athlete. Connor thinks Ribas will struggle to get the fight to the ground and will be picked apart on the feet.
Jacob picks Amanda Ribas but is scared, noting that Araújo is dangerous early and hits hard. He believes Ribas can take over in the second and third rounds as Araújo's cardio fades. Jacob does not have a straight bet on Ribas due to the risk.
Araújo is a solid striker with good power and leg kicks. Ribas has average striking and gets flustered against better strikers. Araújo's takedown defense should hold up, keeping the fight standing where she has the advantage, and she wins a decision.
Paul picks Ribas, citing her youth and takedown ability. He thinks she can get takedowns and control the fight. He acknowledges it's a close fight and won't bet it, but for picks he goes with Ribas.
The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas, citing her youth and potential versus Araújo's age. He believes Ribas has a submission advantage and a better chin, predicting a close 29-28 decision.
Zane also picks Araújo, agreeing that her improved striking and ability to stay at range will be key. He notes that Ribas's best wins are against lower-level competition and that her grappling success may not translate against Araújo's strong takedown defense. Zane adds that Araújo is more accurate and self-contained, and Ribas's aggressive style will leave her open to counters.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 153 of 311 | 49% | 193 of 353 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 126 of 264 | 47% | 148 of 288 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 32 of 66 | 48% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 38 of 73 | 52% | 57 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 26 of 56 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 34 of 64 | 53% | 34 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 30 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 5 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 32 of 61 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 153 of 311 | 49% | 101 of 243 | 33 of 45 | 19 of 23 | 143 of 298 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 126 of 264 | 47% | 103 of 235 | 17 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 124 of 261 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 32 of 66 | 48% | 24 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 27 of 52 | 51% | 23 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 38 of 73 | 52% | 26 of 60 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 20 of 50 | 40% | 15 of 44 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 34 of 64 | 53% | 20 of 45 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 34 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 30 of 54 | 55% | 25 of 48 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 24 of 47 | 51% | 15 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 25 of 56 | 44% | 19 of 50 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexa Grasso | 25 of 61 | 40% | 16 of 47 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 22 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 24 of 52 | 46% | 21 of 46 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her takedown defense (60% but effective against top wrestlers like Carla Esparza) and striking volume. He notes that Viviane Araújo is a grappler who can strike but has a negative striking differential and conditioning issues. He believes Grasso will defend enough takedowns to out-strike Araújo and win a decision, especially as Araújo fades in later rounds.
Big Brady picks Alexa Grasso to win by decision. He cites the five-round distance as the key factor, noting that Araújo fades in three-round fights due to her high-energy style. He expects Araújo to have early success but fade in rounds 3-5, allowing Grasso to take over. He says he would consider Araújo in a three-round fight but not at five rounds. He will not bet this fight.
Cody picks Grasso to win, likely by decision, citing her superior volume and improved grappling. He notes that Araújo has low volume and may struggle in a five-round fight, but the price at -225 is steep. He also likes the over 90.5 significant strikes prop on PrizePicks, as Grasso has reached that in three-round fights and this is five rounds.
Connor also picks Grasso, emphasizing that since the Harig loss, wrestling has been the main problem for Grasso, but Araujo can get one-tracked and lose to fighters like Jessica Eye. He thinks Grasso can create enough challenge to make Araujo fall into traps. He notes that Grasso has had inconsistent performances but still favors her.
Grasso has youth, cardio, footwork, and combination striking advantages. Araújo has power but tends to slow down in later rounds, and this is a five-round fight. Grasso trains at altitude and has shown great cardio, while Araújo's best path is an early KO. Grasso should take over after the first round and win by decision, possibly finding a late finish. The host mentions being the 'women's MMA whisperer' and is confident in Grasso despite the chalky line.
Paul sees this as a great live betting opportunity. He thinks Araújo may have early success with takedowns and physicality, but her cardio is suspect at 35 and in her first five-round fight. He notes that Araújo has tired in third rounds historically, and Grasso's output should win out over five rounds. He picks Grasso by decision but doesn't love it.
The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso, acknowledging that 90% of people are picking her. He likes Araújo as an underdog but believes in Grasso's improvements, especially her hands. He notes Grasso's first-round finish over Joanne Calderwood and win over Maycee Barber. He predicts a technical boxing match with Grasso stuffing takedowns and winning the first three rounds, ultimately 48-47 by decision.
Zane picks Grasso, citing her sharper punching and ability to land cleaner shots over five rounds. He notes that Grasso has been putting together nice combination counters in the pocket, similar to Robert Whittaker, and that Araujo is very hittable. He acknowledges Araujo's wrestling and grappling could be a factor but believes Grasso's scrambling and clinch work will be enough to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 39 of 79 | 49% | 96 of 160 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 10:40 |
| Andrea Lee | 1 | 47 of 82 | 57% | 64 of 103 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 31 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Andrea Lee | 1 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 29 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 48 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 13 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 39 of 79 | 49% | 25 of 63 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 |
| Andrea Lee | 47 of 82 | 57% | 34 of 65 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 64 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 18 of 34 | 52% | 11 of 26 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 7 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Andrea Lee | 9 of 10 | 90% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 13 of 21 | 61% | 10 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Andrea Lee, noting her improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Araújo has cardio issues and fades in the third round. He believes Lee will push the pace, tire Araújo out, and win by volume. He mentions Lee's training with Tony Kelley and her social media showing hard work.
Paul is cautious, warning that Araújo is more of a wrestler and Lee's takedown defense is her kryptonite. He says it could be a situation where Araújo takes Lee down and holds top control, making it risky. He advises not putting this on a top ticket.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 127 of 292 | 43% | 135 of 300 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 89 of 196 | 45% | 129 of 238 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 37 of 91 | 40% | 43 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 36 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 37 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 58 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 55 of 125 | 44% | 55 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 35 of 92 | 38% | 35 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 127 of 292 | 43% | 87 of 236 | 31 of 46 | 9 of 10 | 121 of 286 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 89 of 196 | 45% | 60 of 162 | 24 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 85 of 192 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 37 of 91 | 40% | 21 of 67 | 13 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 87 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 32 of 56 | 57% | 17 of 38 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 35 of 76 | 46% | 24 of 62 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 22 of 48 | 45% | 19 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 55 of 125 | 44% | 42 of 107 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 54 of 124 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 35 of 92 | 38% | 24 of 79 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Araújo is the better striker with higher volume and power. She also has takedown ability and a black belt in BJJ. Cerminara gets outlanded in most fights and relies on noise to sway judges, but with a crowd that won't work. Araújo's cardio is a concern, but she has been improving. I think she wins a decision.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Chookagian. He emphasizes that Araújo has poor cardio and gives up takedowns when tired. Cody believes Chookagian's improved wrestling and defensive grappling will allow her to control the fight. He notes that Chookagian's volume and ability to stay on the outside will be effective.
Daniel Levi picks Viviane Araújo as a dog, citing her power, explosiveness, and footwork. He notes that Chookagian struggles when pressured and that Araújo can land big overhand rights. However, he is concerned about Araújo's cardio and whether she can maintain output for three rounds. Levi thinks it's a close fight and a dog-or-pass situation, but leans toward Araújo for a split decision.
The host is confident in Chookagian, citing her endless cardio, movement, and volume. He thinks she will stay on her bicycle, jab, and leg kick, making Araújo uncomfortable and causing her to gas. He notes Araújo's takedown defense is good but Chookagian's style should nullify her. He predicts a decision win and calls minus 135 a great line.
Paul picks Chookagian, noting that she only loses to the elite and has improved her wrestling and grappling. He highlights that Araújo has cardio issues and gives up takedowns when tired. Paul expects Chookagian to use her wrestling to neutralize Araújo's physicality and win the later rounds. He mentions that Chookagian's volume and defensive wrestling will be key.
The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araújo, praising Cerminara's underrated skills and her performance against Valentina Shevchenko. He notes Araújo lacks finishing ability and believes Cerminara's grappling and range will be key. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.
Andrea Lee - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 53 of 175 | 30% | 66 of 192 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 74 of 137 | 54% | 77 of 142 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 18 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 30 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 29 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 53 of 175 | 30% | 13 of 109 | 25 of 44 | 15 of 22 | 52 of 174 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 74 of 137 | 54% | 54 of 114 | 10 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 68 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 18 of 57 | 31% | 1 of 32 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 13 | 18 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 15 of 58 | 25% | 3 of 35 | 6 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 25 of 46 | 54% | 17 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andrea Lee | 20 of 60 | 33% | 9 of 42 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 28 of 48 | 58% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee despite her five-fight losing streak, arguing that she is still a good striker with quality losses and close decisions. He criticizes JJ Aldrich as inconsistent and lacking in wrestling and striking. He sees value in Lee at +163 odds but warns against betting on this fight due to the unpredictability of both fighters.
Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is hesitant. He acknowledges value on Andrea Lee at +170 but cannot pick her due to her five-fight losing streak and apparent decline. He notes Aldrich's takedown defense and striking should be enough, but expects a close split decision.
The host leans with Aldrich, believing she can use her striking approach to nullify Lee's kickboxing and shut down any grappling attempts. He expects Aldrich's combination style to earn her a decision win.
The Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Andrea Lee. He reasons that Andrea Lee is on a five-fight losing streak and declining, while Aldrich is more well-rounded and can get takedowns. He recalls Aldrich's performance against Erin Blanchfield before getting caught in a guillotine. He predicts a split decision win for Aldrich.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 75 of 152 | 49% | 115 of 201 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 2:08 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 70 of 180 | 38% | 88 of 206 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 52 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:52 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 17 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 31 of 68 | 45% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 37 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:16 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 34 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 75 of 152 | 49% | 37 of 109 | 29 of 31 | 9 of 12 | 58 of 129 | 13 of 16 | 4 of 7 |
| Andrea Lee | 70 of 180 | 38% | 53 of 156 | 12 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 62 of 161 | 5 of 16 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 27 of 50 | 54% | 16 of 38 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 31 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 7 |
| Andrea Lee | 14 of 44 | 31% | 9 of 37 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 36 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 31 of 68 | 45% | 14 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 33 of 81 | 40% | 26 of 72 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Montana De La Rosa | 17 of 34 | 50% | 7 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 23 of 55 | 41% | 18 of 47 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee, noting that Montana De La Rosa is a wrestler but didn't use her wrestling in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He thinks if Montana doesn't commit to takedowns, Andrea will out-strike her. Andrea is a good striker with underrated skills, and her losses are to quality opponents. He is not confident Montana will wrestle, so he goes with Andrea.
Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa with little confidence. He notes that Andrea Lee is on a four-fight losing streak and looks to be declining, while De La Rosa's striking has improved. He expects De La Rosa to get takedowns and control time. He says he is not betting on this fight and advises others to avoid it.
Cody picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has poor ring IQ and does not commit to her wrestling. Lee has improved her takedown defense and has better striking volume. Cody expects Lee to sprawl and brawl, outpointing De La Rosa on the feet. He also likes Lee by decision at plus money.
Daniel picks Lee as the better fighter despite both being on losing streaks. He notes Lee won their first fight and has faced tougher competition, but questions her motivation and slowing speed. He sees Montana as never assertive enough, so he expects Lee to win a split decision.
Jacob leans Andrea Lee, but with low confidence. He notes that both fighters are better than their records suggest. He worries that if Montana commits to wrestling, Andrea could be on her back for 15 minutes. However, he thinks Andrea is the better striker and can defend takedowns with footwork. He expects a close fight and goes with Andrea, but is not confident.
Lee is a skilled striker with an active Jiu-Jitsu game, while De La Rosa relies on grappling but lacks striking. Lee should land strikes and stuff takedowns, and may even catch a submission off her back. However, Lee can be flaky if she gets demoralized. Leaning Lee by submission, but passing on betting due to line movement.
Paul picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has not been dominant with her grappling recently. Lee has better striking and takedown defense. Paul expects Lee to win on volume and outpoint De La Rosa over three rounds.
The Guru picks Andrea Lee because she does damage well and is a more physical specimen with less wasted weight. He thinks her age (35) and lack of children give her anger and aggression, especially in the third round. He notes Montana De La Rosa has a decent grappling game but Lee did better on the feet against Macy Barber. He expects Lee to do better on the feet and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miranda Maverick | 0 | 36 of 102 | 35% | 59 of 126 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 66 of 136 | 48% | 106 of 180 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miranda Maverick | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 14 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Miranda Maverick | 0 | 9 of 34 | 26% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 47 of 74 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 | |
| 3 | Miranda Maverick | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 28 of 55 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miranda Maverick | 36 of 102 | 35% | 14 of 72 | 13 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 32 of 96 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 66 of 136 | 48% | 28 of 89 | 16 of 25 | 22 of 22 | 60 of 128 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miranda Maverick | 12 of 31 | 38% | 4 of 20 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 24 of 43 | 55% | 9 of 25 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 10 | 23 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miranda Maverick | 9 of 34 | 26% | 4 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 23 of 48 | 47% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Miranda Maverick | 15 of 37 | 40% | 6 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 19 of 45 | 42% | 8 of 30 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Miranda Maverick, citing her pressure, takedowns, and toughness. He notes that Andrea Lee has fought tougher competition but is on a three-fight skid. He cautions that the moneyline is juiced and recommends the over 2.5 rounds as a lock.
Big Brady picks Miranda Maverick to win, citing her youth (26 vs 35) and physical strength as key advantages. He notes Andrea Lee's poor takedown defense (54%) and history of being taken down by lesser wrestlers, expecting Maverick to get the fight to the mat and grind out a decision. He acknowledges Lee's underrated striking but believes Maverick's wrestling and control will be too much. He mentions the line is moving but says he's probably not betting this one.
Cody picks Lee, noting her high volume striking (100+ significant strikes) compared to Maverick's lower output. He questions Maverick's takedown effectiveness and believes Lee can win on the feet. He sees plus 170 as good value and picks Lee.
Daniel picks Miranda Maverick but expresses hesitation about the betting line. He notes that Andrea Lee is physically strong and that Maverick's striking is her weakest area. He worries that Lee's strength could cause problems, but ultimately believes Maverick's grappling advantage will prevail. He says he is staying away from the line.
Daniel Vreeland passes on this fight, noting Andrea Lee's decline and Miranda Maverick's inconsistency. He considered taking the dog on Lee but decided against it given her recent performances.
Jeff picks Miranda Maverick, noting that Andrea Lee is on a three-fight skid and hasn't won since 2021. He believes Maverick is a younger, stronger fighter who can impose her will. He acknowledges Lee's physical strength but thinks Maverick's grappling and overall game will be too much. He is not betting the line, however, as he finds it unappealing.
Maverick is younger, stronger, and will dominate in the clinch and on the ground. Lee may be the better technical striker but has a history of breaking under pressure. Maverick grinds out a decision win.
Paul picks Lee, arguing that the line is inflated by Maverick's recent win over low-level competition. He notes Lee has fought tougher opponents and has better volume striking. He believes Maverick's wrestling is not as effective against higher-level grapplers, and Lee can outwork her on the feet. He sees Lee as a clear underdog value.
The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick, citing her youth, improvement at Team Elevation, and full focus on MMA now that she's done with education. He notes Andrea Lee's frustration when taken down and lack of calmness on bottom. He believes Maverick's grappling will be key, though he acknowledges Lee's stronger strength of schedule and mentions he might advise betting on Lee if her odds become bigger underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 43 of 125 | 34% | 43 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 70 of 174 | 40% | 70 of 174 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 26 of 62 | 41% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 43 of 125 | 34% | 12 of 74 | 11 of 23 | 20 of 28 | 43 of 125 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 70 of 174 | 40% | 34 of 111 | 17 of 43 | 19 of 20 | 70 of 174 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 14 of 49 | 28% | 4 of 29 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 13 | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 26 of 62 | 41% | 13 of 38 | 6 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 18 of 42 | 42% | 5 of 24 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 22 of 50 | 44% | 8 of 29 | 9 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 11 of 34 | 32% | 3 of 21 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 22 of 62 | 35% | 13 of 44 | 2 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Natália Silva, citing her well-rounded skills, power that carries into later rounds, and ability to turn fights into brawls. He notes that Andrea Lee is tough and technical but believes Silva is the better striker and grappler, and that Lee won't be able to take her down. He has Silva in a parlay and also suggests betting the under on Andrea Lee's takedown line.
Big Brady leans toward Natália Silva despite the wide line, citing her power advantage and elite takedown defense. He notes Andrea Lee has good volume and underrated skills, but Silva lands harder shots and may mix in takedowns. He expects the fight to go the distance with Silva winning by decision, similar to Lee's fight with Mayra Bueno Silva.
Cody sees Silva as the complete package with good striking and fast hands, while Lee is slowing down and has a wonky training situation. He expects Silva to piece up Lee, but warns that women's MMA is unpredictable.
Daniel Levi picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, citing her experience and savvy. He notes that Silva is small for the weight class and has shown weaknesses when taken down, as Lee's grappling is better than Silva's previous opponents. Levi thinks Lee can win via grappling and that the plus money is valuable. He also likes the plus 3.5 spread. However, he acknowledges Silva is the real deal and is not going heavy on the bet.
Lucrative James picks Natália Silva to win, citing her excellent distance management and takedown defense. He expects Silva to dictate the striking range and potentially get takedowns of her own, as Andrea Lee has historically lost when taken down and controlled on the ground. He sees the fight going to a decision with Silva edging it out 29-28 or 30-27.
Silva's movement and striking accuracy should be too much for Lee. She lands significant strikes from distance and has shown finishing ability. However, the moneyline is too wide given Lee's experience and potential grappling success. Prefer Silva by decision prop as a better value.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Natália Silva, calling her one of the rare good female MMA prospects. He highlights her stunning striking performances and dominant wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bledá. He notes Andrea Lee has taken a lot of damage and is 34, while Silva is 26 and improving. He expects Silva to win by decision but thinks Lee will make it tough.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 39 of 103 | 37% | 57 of 125 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:20 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 48 of 127 | 37% | 66 of 158 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 16 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 26 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 24 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 15 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 20 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 39 of 103 | 37% | 10 of 57 | 15 of 27 | 14 of 19 | 34 of 97 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 48 of 127 | 37% | 31 of 97 | 9 of 20 | 8 of 10 | 38 of 113 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 12 of 35 | 34% | 3 of 18 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 17 of 45 | 37% | 11 of 35 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 15 of 38 | 39% | 6 of 23 | 2 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 14 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 17 of 43 | 39% | 11 of 31 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 12 of 30 | 40% | 1 of 16 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 14 of 39 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 33 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, arguing that Barber is overrated and a decision fighter who can break mentally. He notes that Lee is a technical striker with improved grappling and has fought tougher competition. He believes Lee can keep the fight standing and out-strike Barber, and that Barber's takedowns may not be enough. He says no bet on this fight due to unknowns.
Big Brady picks Andrea Lee as a dog, believing the fight will be closer than the odds indicate. He thinks Lee is the better striker with more volume, while Barber relies on physical strength and takedowns. Brady notes Barber's striking is still a work in progress and that Lee can work back to her feet if taken down. He predicts a split decision win for Lee, possibly a robbery, and expects the fight to go the distance.
Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup, noting Barber's youth and cardio advantage but also her lack of takedowns in recent fights. He sees a path for Lee if she can keep the fight standing and outstrike Barber, but he is wary of Lee's tendency to fatigue. He ultimately says he wants nothing to do with the line, finding it too wide.
Connor picks Barber because Lee has a history of crumbling under pressure and bullying. He notes Barber's recent assertiveness and willingness to clinch and use her strength. He acknowledges Barber's poor kickboxing but thinks she will force a clinch-heavy fight where Lee fades.
Jacob picks Barber but admits he is biased against Lee. He thinks Barber can get takedowns and wear Lee down, similar to how Viviane Araujo did. He warns that Barber is a decision fighter and should not be put in parlays. He acknowledges Lee is dangerous on the feet and that Barber's takedowns are key.
The host believes Barber's strength and grappling improvements at Team Alpha Male will be key. He expects Barber to assert herself early, counter Lee's combinations, and eventually get clinch situations where she can rough Lee up against the cage. He notes that if Lee gets into a flow state it could be trouble, but Barber's power and explosiveness should deter her. He predicts Barber wins by decision.
The Guru picks Barber, citing her improved grappling and youth (24 vs 34). He thinks Barber can take Lee down and slow her down as the fight progresses, winning the last two rounds via decision. He notes Lee's tendency to fade when wrestled.
Zane picks Barber but notes it could easily be a fight where Barber flops around and Lee jabs her. He highlights Barber's physicality and willingness to make opponents deal with her strength. He also notes Barber's reliable third-round surge if things aren't going well.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 39 of 79 | 49% | 96 of 160 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 10:40 |
| Andrea Lee | 1 | 47 of 82 | 57% | 64 of 103 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 31 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Andrea Lee | 1 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 29 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 48 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 13 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 39 of 79 | 49% | 25 of 63 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 |
| Andrea Lee | 47 of 82 | 57% | 34 of 65 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 64 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 18 of 34 | 52% | 11 of 26 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 7 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Andrea Lee | 9 of 10 | 90% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 13 of 21 | 61% | 10 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Andrea Lee, noting her improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Araújo has cardio issues and fades in the third round. He believes Lee will push the pace, tire Araújo out, and win by volume. He mentions Lee's training with Tony Kelley and her social media showing hard work.
Paul is cautious, warning that Araújo is more of a wrestler and Lee's takedown defense is her kryptonite. He says it could be a situation where Araújo takes Lee down and holds top control, making it risky. He advises not putting this on a top ticket.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 47 of 154 | 30% | 47 of 154 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 84 of 210 | 40% | 85 of 211 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 25 of 87 | 28% | 25 of 87 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 43 of 116 | 37% | 44 of 117 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 22 of 67 | 32% | 22 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 41 of 94 | 43% | 41 of 94 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 47 of 154 | 30% | 18 of 99 | 21 of 46 | 8 of 9 | 47 of 154 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 84 of 210 | 40% | 46 of 155 | 30 of 45 | 8 of 10 | 83 of 208 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 25 of 87 | 28% | 11 of 62 | 10 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 25 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 43 of 116 | 37% | 27 of 92 | 12 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 43 of 115 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 22 of 67 | 32% | 7 of 37 | 11 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cynthia Calvillo | 41 of 94 | 43% | 19 of 63 | 18 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 40 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee, citing her polished striking and comfort on the feet. He notes that Calvillo looks uncomfortable striking and that Lee has improved grappling. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Lee at near even money and thinks she can control the striking exchanges.
Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo but is hesitant, noting Andrea Lee has superior striking volume and accuracy. However, he highlights Lee's poor takedown defense (57%) and that she has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. Brady believes Calvillo can win by wrestling, but recalls her fight against Chookagian where she didn't wrestle enough, causing doubt.
Cody has a gut feeling that Calvillo might lose. He notes that Lee has been working on her wrestling and that Calvillo is 1-2 at 125 lbs. He thinks if Lee can stuff takedowns, she can out-strike Calvillo. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and might take a small shot on Lee.
Daniel Levi picks Cynthia Calvillo, citing her dominant ground game and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee has been taken down multiple times by previous opponents (Roxanne Modafferi, Lauren Murphy, Joanne Calderwood) and believes Calvillo only needs one or two takedowns to win rounds or secure a finish. Levi acknowledges Lee's striking volume but thinks Calvillo's grappling will be the difference.
Jacob picks Cynthia Calvillo, believing she will dominate on the ground. He thinks Calvillo will get in the pocket, take Lee down, and control the fight. Jacob is a big Calvillo fan and thinks the UFC gave her a winnable matchup after her loss to Andrade.
Paul believes Calvillo has a massive wrestling advantage and should spam takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee gives up takedowns to everyone. He thinks Calvillo can control the fight on the ground and win a decision.
The Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo by unanimous decision (29-27). He expects Andrea Lee to win the first round on the feet, but Calvillo's takedowns and ground control in rounds two and three will secure the win. Calvillo will get a 10-8 in the third due to dominant ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 45 of 62 | 72% | 88 of 108 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 36 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 43 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 34 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 18 | 94% | 45 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 45 of 62 | 72% | 32 of 43 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 21 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 23 of 41 | 56% | 13 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 28 of 44 | 63% | 15 of 25 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 34 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 22 of 39 | 56% | 13 of 29 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 17 of 18 | 94% | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 17 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.
Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.
Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.
The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.
Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.
The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.
Expert Picks (2)
Cody picks Andrea Lee, noting her improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Araújo has cardio issues and fades in the third round. He believes Lee will push the pace, tire Araújo out, and win by volume. He mentions Lee's training with Tony Kelley and her social media showing hard work.
Paul is cautious, warning that Araújo is more of a wrestler and Lee's takedown defense is her kryptonite. He says it could be a situation where Araújo takes Lee down and holds top control, making it risky. He advises not putting this on a top ticket.
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