UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho

Angelo picks Caio Borralho, citing his high fight IQ and slick grappling. He notes that Borralho is a 'fighting nerd' who makes smart adjustments mid-fight, and that his head is massive and hard to put out. He acknowledges Cannonier's power and the short notice for both, but believes Borralho's intelligence and size advantage will carry him.

Cody thinks the betting line on Borralho is inflated. He notes Cannonier is a tough veteran who has fought top competition and has good takedown defense and get-up game. He believes Borralho may try to be entertaining instead of wrestling, which plays into Cannonier's hands. He also mentions Cannonier's price of +190 is too good to pass up.

Daniel Vreeland is not fully confident but leans toward Jared Cannonier. He argues that Borralho's competition has been unranked and his striking volume is low, while Cannonier has proven output against top fighters. He worries about Cannonier's age and recent stoppage loss but believes the volume and experience advantage will be decisive unless Cannonier has declined overnight.

JP picks Borralho by decision, noting he is 6-0 in the UFC and hasn't lost since 2015. He highlights Borralho's grappling match against heavyweight Jilton Almeida as evidence of his skills. He thinks Cannonier is 40 and inconsistent. Brevin agrees, picking Borralho, praising his striking style similar to Michael Venom Page with explosive entries, and his good grappling. He thinks Cannonier will try to pressure but Borralho's in-and-out movement will be effective.

Paul agrees with Cody, favoring Cannonier because of his experience and plus money. He notes Cannonier is 40 and coming off knee surgery but has fought the best. He thinks Borralho might try to be aggressive to impress, which could lead to his demise. Paul also mentions that Borralho's low volume and risk-averse style might not work against a durable veteran.

The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho by rear-naked choke. He notes Cannonier's takedown defense is good but he gives up his back often. He believes Borralho's back-take ability and momentum from his win over Paul Craig will be key. He also cites Cannonier's age (40) and quick turnaround after a near-finish loss to Nassourdine Imavov. He trusts Borralho's improving standup and the Fighting Nerds team.

Angelo picks Angela Hill, citing her veteran savvy, length, cardio, and experience. He notes that Hill has found a late-career resurgence at 39 and is a high-IQ striker who can avoid takedowns and exploit rookie mistakes. He mentions that Ricci went 1-for-10 on takedowns in her last fight and was outstruck, but judges favored her pressure. He thinks Hill can steal a decision and recommends the over 2.5 rounds.

Cody picks Ricci because of her youth, athleticism, and superior grappling. He believes she can take Hill down and control the fight, as Hill is not as elusive as other grapplers Ricci has faced. He notes Ricci's path to victory is clear: mix in takedowns and control time. He also mentions that Hill is 39 and may not have the same durability.

Daniel Vreeland picks Tabatha Ricci but is not confident due to inconsistent judging. He notes Ricci's improving volume and jiu-jitsu advantage, while Hill has been on a resurgence. He thinks Ricci might win by split decision or submission, but acknowledges the fight could be a robbery.

Brevin picks Angela Hill, noting she has entered her prime at 39 with sharp striking and improved grappling. He thinks her length and volume will be key. He acknowledges Ricci's grappling advantage but believes Hill can defend takedowns and win on the feet. JP disagrees, picking Ricci by decision, citing Hill's 12-13 UFC record and age. He thinks Ricci's grappling, though not submission-heavy, will be enough, and notes Hill goes to decision often but doesn't win dominantly.

Paul leans towards Hill because of her high volume striking and improved grappling. He thinks Hill can outwork Ricci on the feet and avoid takedowns. He notes the fight is a coin flip but sides with the steam on Hill. He also mentions that Hill's experience and recent submission win show her grappling improvements.

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill because he thinks she is a much better fighter than Tabatha Ricci. He worries about Ricci holding her down but believes Hill's striking and experience will prevail. He notes Hill's recent win over Denise Gomes and expects a decision victory.

Angelo picks Ryan Loder, describing him as a boring but effective wrestler who excels at controlling the fight. He notes that Loder will likely shoot takedowns when Valentin throws spinning attacks, and that Loder's grinding style should win the minutes. He expresses hope that Valentin wins because Loder's style is bad for the sport, but picks Loder nonetheless.

Cody picks Loder because of his power wrestling and ability to grind out a decision. He notes Loder is a D1 All-American wrestler who can take opponents down and control them for 15 minutes. He thinks Valentin's path to victory is striking, but Loder's wrestling will neutralize that. He also mentions that Valentin's wins on TUF were against weak competition.

Daniel Vreeland picks Ryan Loder, citing his D1 wrestling pedigree and ability to take down Valentin, who is susceptible to takedowns. He warns that Loder must actually use his wrestling and not stand and bang, but believes the path to victory is clear.

JP picks Valentin by decision, thinking he is better on the feet and has decent enough grappling to stuff takedowns. He also thinks Valentin is a smarter fighter. He is not betting this fight. Brevin disagrees strongly, picking Loder as an underdog, praising his high IQ wrestling and ground-and-pound. Brevin notes Valentin's competition has been abysmal and he gets taken down easily.

Paul admits he hasn't watched much of TUF and doesn't have a strong opinion. He notes that both fighters are unproven and the fight is a coin flip. He says he needs to do more research before making a pick.

The MMA Guru picks Robert Valentin because he sees him as a more diverse finisher with underrated jiu-jitsu and nasty elbows. He acknowledges Ryan Loder's wrestling credentials but thinks Valentin can latch up a submission from anywhere. He notes Valentin has been a pro since 2016 and trains with good partners in Switzerland.

Cody doesn't have a pick because the opponent for Ofli is not yet determined at the time of recording. He mentions that Santos and Ziggy Montes Rasa are the two best guys and the winner of that fight would beat Ofli. He says he needs to see the odds before making a decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks Kaan Ofli as the underdog, noting Ofli is likely the stronger grappler while Santos has big leg kicks but issues on the mat. He admits he is not very familiar with either fighter and advises caution.

Paul doesn't have a pick because the opponent is unknown. He says it's impossible to provide betting advice without odds. He mentions he saw Ofli's fight and he looked solid, but needs more information.

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, calling himself a 'big Michael Morales guy.' He highlights Morales' national championships in freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai, his fantastic footwork, and his clean takedowns. He believes Morales is better than Magny everywhere and will win with accurate striking and takedowns. He notes Magny's age and recent comeback win but thinks Morales is the superior fighter.

Cody picks Morales because he is a young, talented prospect with a judo background and power. He thinks Morales will outwork Magny and possibly get a finish. He notes that Magny has looked slow and flat-footed in recent fights and has been outworked by lesser fighters. He believes Morales' cardio is good and he won't fade like some prospects.

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Michael Morales, arguing that Morales thrives in the clinch where Magny often beats opponents. He notes Morales' improving hands and wrestling background, and believes he will beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish.

Brevin picks Magny as a big underdog, citing his experience against top competition, his size and reach advantage, and his grappling edge. He thinks Morales is overhyped and will get fraud-checked. He notes Magny is a gatekeeper who often wins these matchups. JP disagrees, picking Morales, calling Magny a 40-year-old gatekeeper who goes to decision and has shown his ceiling. JP thinks Morales is better and younger.

Paul takes a small shot on Magny at +600 because he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Morales has looked good but has dropped rounds and hasn't faced a veteran like Magny. He thinks Magny's cardio and clinch work could give Morales problems if the fight goes deep. He admits Morales likely wins but the price is worth a small bet.

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales because he believes Neil Magny is past his prime at 37 and does not check low kicks. He notes Morales is young (25), talented, and has good wins over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin. He expects Morales to attack the low kicks and stuff takedowns, winning on the feet.

Angelo picks Gerald Meerschaert as an underdog, acknowledging his chinny reputation but noting his improved takedowns in his last fight. He thinks Meerschaert's grappling is the best it's looked and that if he can take Shahbazyan down, he'll be in trouble. He mentions that Shahbazyan is a 3-to-1 favorite which seems crazy, and that Apex cards are ripe for upsets. He also suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Meerschaert.

Cody picks Meerschaert because he thinks Shahbazyan is a front-runner who fades if he doesn't finish early. He notes Meerschaert has good BJJ, cardio, and a comeback ability. He believes if Shahbazyan doesn't knock him out in the first round, Meerschaert will take over and submit him. He also mentions that Shahbazyan has been stopped by wrestlers and grapplers before.

Daniel Vreeland picks Gerald Meerschaert for the upset, noting Shahbazyan is a front-runner who fades after the first round. He believes if Shahbazyan doesn't get a first-round KO, Meerschaert will take over with submissions or ground-and-pound. He acknowledges the risk of Shahbazyan winning early.

JP picks Shahbazyan by KO, noting his losses were to elite competition and he has looked great lately. He thinks Meerschaert is old, slow, and his standup is not good. Brevin agrees, adding that Meerschaert is reckless and has been taking bad punishment recently, including a one-punch KO loss to Chimaev. Shahbazyan is bigger, younger, and has good wrestling to stuff takedowns.

Paul leans towards Shahbazyan by KO but doesn't like the price. He thinks Shahbazyan has the power to finish Meerschaert early, but notes that Meerschaert is durable and could survive. He prefers to bet live or take a prop on Shahbazyan by KO rather than the moneyline. He also mentions that Meerschaert's chin is suspect.

The MMA Guru picks Edmen Shahbazyan by first-round KO. He believes Shahbazyan is much more talented on the feet and that Meerschaert is getting old. He cites Shahbazyan's wins over Barbarena, AJ Dobson, and Dingi Andula, and notes Meerschaert's recent win over Barbarena was unimpressive. He predicts a first-round finish.

Angelo picks Danny Silva (note: transcript says Danny Silva but fight card says Francis Marshall vs Dennis Buzukja; likely a mix-up, but he refers to Dennis Buzukja as the opponent). He calls Silva a 'very low confidence pick' because Buzukja doesn't wrestle as much as he should. He notes that Silva is a solid striker with clean technique and movement, but gets hit a lot. He mentions that the AI on the website has a knack for picking underdogs and suggests checking it.

Cody picks Silva because of his high volume and wrestling ability. He notes that Buzukja is a generalist who isn't particularly good at anything and has poor cardio. He thinks Silva can outwork Buzukja on the feet or take him down. He also mentions that Silva's performance on Contender Series showed he can throw 200 significant strikes and mix in takedowns.

Daniel Vreeland picks Dennis Buzukja for the upset, citing Marshall taking the fight on short notice and Buzukja's better competition and volume. He admits both fighters are average and not confident, but thinks Buzukja can edge a decision if he keeps it standing.

Brevin picks Buzukja, citing his resilience after overcoming illness, his confidence after his last win, and his experience against tough competition like Sean Woodson. He believes Buzukja is back to his true form. JP disagrees, picking Silva by KO, noting Buzukja's two UFC losses to good competition and Silva's better striking. JP fades Brevin on this one.

Paul agrees with Cody, liking Silva's volume and ability to mix in wrestling. He thinks Silva is fairly priced at -240 and should win. He notes that Buzukja has looked poor in the UFC and doesn't have a clear path to victory.

The MMA Guru picks Dennis Buzukja with low confidence. He notes Buzukja trains at a good gym with Aljamain Sterling and has a win over Connor Matthews. He criticizes Francis Marshall's losses and gym, suggesting Marshall's camp is built around him while Buzukja gets better training partners. He seems unsure but leans toward Buzukja.

Angelo picks Zachary Reese, acknowledging that Reese burned him in the past but attributing that loss to a freak powerbomb. He notes Reese's size, power, and BJJ, but warns that if Reese plays the 'Jiu-Jitsu nerd game' and throws up triangles, he could get ground-and-pounded by Medina. He thinks Reese is the better fighter and should win, but is cautious.

Cody picks Reese because he is a finisher with power and submission skills. He notes that Medina has poor takedown defense and has been dominated on the ground. He thinks Reese will take him down and finish him early. He also mentions that Medina is dropping down to middleweight and may not handle the cut well.

Daniel Vreeland picks Zachary Reese but is not confident due to Reese's unknown cardio past the first round. He notes Medina is tough and could survive early onslaught and finish late, but believes Reese's power and aggression will likely get the job done early.

Brevin picks Reese by decision, dismissing his slam KO loss to Cody Brundage as a freak accident. He notes Reese was nearly submitting Brundage before the slam. He thinks Medina is unimpressive and will try to pressure grapple but Reese is better. JP is more confident, picking Reese by KO, calling Medina bad, out of shape, and noting Reese is much bigger and stronger. He calls the Brundage slam a one-off.

Paul leans towards Reese but is concerned about the price and Reese's cardio. He notes that Reese has never fought past the first round and could fade. He thinks Medina's durability could be a factor if Reese doesn't finish early. He prefers to look at live betting or late props on Medina.

The MMA Guru picks Zachary Reese because he considers José Medina not UFC-level and 'garbage'. He notes Reese is a talented finisher with good submissions off his back and KO power on the feet, despite a previous loss where he was slammed on his head. He dismisses Medina's resume as weak.

Angelo picks Viacheslav Borshchev as the better striker, but expresses concerns about his chin after being dropped by Chase Hooper. He thinks this should be a striking matchup and Borshchev is more technical. However, he says the bet will be on James Llontop to win inside the distance (decision no action) because Llontop could exploit Borshchev's questionable chin. He notes that if Llontop loses a decision, the bet is refunded.

Cody leans towards Borshchev because he is the better striker and this is likely a striking match. He notes that Llontop has poor takedown defense and gives up his back, but Borshchev won't wrestle. He thinks Borshchev's power and technique will be too much, but he is concerned about Borshchev's chin and recent damage. He says it's a tough fight to bet at -250.

Daniel Vreeland picks Viacheslav Borshchev, arguing that without a takedown threat from Llontop, Borshchev will get the kickboxing match he wants and is the better striker. He notes Borshchev has taken damage but believes he will pick Llontop apart.

Brevin picks Slava Claus, noting his good boxing and power, and that Llontop stands in the pocket too long, opening himself to counters. He mentions Slava's loss to Chase Hooper but downplays it. JP agrees, emphasizing Slava's power and Llontop's tendency to stand still after throwing, which will lead to Slava putting his lights out.

Paul picks Borshchev because he thinks Llontop is prone to poor decision-making and has a neck tattoo. He notes that Llontop was a favorite against Chris Padilla and looked terrible. He believes Borshchev's striking will be the difference in a stand-up fight. He also mentions that Borshchev's chin is starting to go, but Llontop doesn't have the wrestling to exploit it.

The MMA Guru picks Viacheslav Borshchev despite being hesitant. He was disappointed by James Llontop's debut loss and calls him 'skinny fat'. He expects a standup fight and trusts Borshchev's striking, predicting a late TKO or decision. However, he acknowledges Borshchev was destroyed by Chase Hooper, which gives him pause.

Angelo picks the underdog Josiane Nunes, describing her as a bowling ball who only moves forward and throws bombs. He thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Cavalcanti due to recency bias, and that Cavalcanti doesn't like pressure. He notes that Nunes lost her last fight because a giant held her against the cage, but doesn't see that happening here. He suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Nunes, similar to the Dan Hooker bet.

Cody picks Cavalcanti because of her reach, speed, and striking technique. He notes that Nunes is short and has to close distance, which plays into Cavalcanti's range game. He also uses MMA math: Cavalcanti dominated Zara Fairn, while Nunes had a competitive fight with Fairn. He thinks Cavalcanti will outpoint Nunes and win a decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti, citing her significant size and reach advantage over the much shorter Nunes. He notes Cavalcanti's high volume and well-rounded skills, while Nunes is too small for the division and will be bullied.

Brevin picks Cavalcanti by decision, noting she is the bigger fighter and a better striker with range. He dismisses Nunes due to her loss to Chelsea Chandler, which he finds disqualifying. JP agrees, adding that Nunes is much smaller and Cavalcanti is a good striker who is very rangy. Both expect the fight to go the distance.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Nunes was outworked by Chelsea Chandler. He thinks Cavalcanti's volume will be the difference. He also mentions that women's favorites have been winning at a high rate this year, so he's comfortable backing the favorite here.

The MMA Guru picks Josiane Nunes because he believes she is stronger and has more grit than Jacqueline Cavalcanti. He criticizes Cavalcanti's wins over Zara Fairn and Melissa Gatto as unimpressive, implying Nunes has a better mentality and will dig deeper. He relies on a subjective assessment of who wants it more.

Angelo picks Wang Cong, calling her the biggest favorite on the card at 8-to-1 odds. He notes her high-level kickboxing background, including a win over Valentina Shevchenko, and her striking speed and power. He thinks she is light years ahead of Leonardo in striking and should win, potentially by stoppage. However, he warns against betting the moneyline because the odds are too far gone and she is an untested UFC debut. He considers a bet on the under 2.5 rounds if the line is juiced.

Cody picks Wang Cong because of her striking pedigree, including a kickboxing win over Valentina Shevchenko. He notes that Leonardo is 1-3 in the UFC and has been finished by lesser strikers. He thinks Wang Cong's power and precision will be too much. He also mentions that the UFC is building her up as a potential contender.

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Wang Cong, noting her kickboxing background and Leonardo's history of being finished by UFC-caliber opponents. He expects a dominant performance, possibly by head kick or other finish.

Brevin picks Wang Cong by KO, citing her strong wrestling and grappling, and noting that Leonardo is a terrible striker with no striking ability. He is confident Wang will get the job done on Saturday. JP piggybacks, also taking Wang by KO, emphasizing Leonardo's poor record of 1-4 with KOs.

Paul picks Wang Cong, noting her kickboxing background and the UFC's intention to build a Chinese star. He thinks Leonardo is a gatekeeper who will be used to propel Wang Cong. He also mentions that Wang Cong showed grappling skills on Road to the UFC. He says he's willing to pay the chalk.

The MMA Guru picks Wang Cong because she is undefeated and Victoria Leonardo is 'garbage' and should not be in the UFC. He dismisses Leonardo's skills entirely, suggesting she has no business being signed. He does not elaborate on Wang's specific strengths but is confident in her victory.