vs
-210 +205
UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho Next Fight
Age 25
Height 5' 7"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 5' 7"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mairon Santos
3.33 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.24 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kaan Ofli
2.33 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.34 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.38 TD Avg
7.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Mairon Santos
Moneyline
FanDuel -210
KO/TKO
FanDuel +220
Submission
BetRivers +1800
Decision
BetWay +200
Kaan Ofli
Moneyline
Caesars +205
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1100
Submission
DraftKings +550
Decision
FanDuel +500
Mairon Santos - Fight History
KO R3 0:21 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 18 of 48 37% 35 of 69 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:08
Mairon Santos 1 27 of 45 60% 43 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 11 of 18 61% 20 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:00
Mairon Santos 0 7 of 15 46% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 6 of 26 23% 14 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:08
Mairon Santos 0 16 of 24 66% 24 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mairon Santos 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 18 of 48 37% 7 of 29 6 of 10 5 of 9 13 of 40 5 of 8 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 27 of 45 60% 11 of 27 8 of 10 8 of 8 19 of 34 7 of 8 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 11 of 18 61% 3 of 9 5 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 7 of 15 46% 2 of 9 3 of 4 2 of 2 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 6 of 26 23% 3 of 18 1 of 4 2 of 4 4 of 22 2 of 4 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 16 of 24 66% 6 of 13 5 of 6 5 of 5 10 of 17 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 1 of 4 25% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Angelo picks Mairon Santos because he sets a better pace, moves forward, and has power in both hands and feet. He notes that Naimov is well-rounded but lacks urgency and danger, often just trying to win minutes rather than finish. Angelo expects the optics of Santos moving forward and Naimov slowing the pace to favor Santos. He also mentions the over on the round line as a potential bet due to both fighters' durability.

over 2.5 rounds (potential bet)
"Marian Santos is the pick. The odds are widening."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Big Brady picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov. He criticizes Naimov's volume, cardio, and cheating, calling him one of the biggest cheaters in the UFC. He believes Santos is the better striker with more volume and room for growth, and expects Santos to win by decision as long as he stuffs takedowns and his chin holds up.

Santos by decision
"I think he's the cleaner striker. More volume. As long as he can stuff the takedowns, as long as that chin holds up against Naimov, I think he gets the job done. And I think he gets the job done …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Cody picks Santos, citing his youth, takedown defense, and striking. He notes that Santos trains with Fighting Nerds and has improved. He believes Naimov is one-dimensional and low-volume, and that Santos will stuff takedowns and outpoint him. He expects Santos to win by decision.

"Myron Santos, I I love the kid, you know, Matt. He's the ultimate fighter. I really like him. I think he's going to be a really solid prospect."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

Connor picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is a physical phenom with explosive power and speed. He acknowledges that Santos can be inactive and has poor positioning, but believes Naimov is so hittable that Santos will land big shots. Connor cites Naimov's lack of defense and Santos's power advantage.

"I think I'll take, uh, I'll take Santos as well, just because Naimov is so hittable."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Daniel picks Santos, citing his technical striking, improved takedown defense, and overall skill. He believes Santos will dictate the fight on the feet and outclass Naimov, who is solid but not special. He sees Santos as a future top-15 fighter.

"I do think that Myron Santos is going to put some kind of striking clinic on Muhammad Nimov and get this win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Lucrative James believes Mairon Santos is the better striker and will light up Muhammad Naimov on the feet. He notes Naimov's grappling-heavy game plan will cause him to gas out, while Santos' youth and improvement give him a higher ceiling. He predicts Santos wins, possibly by finish or decision, and is confident in the pick.

"I'm predicting Maranos fairly confidently in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

The host believes Santos is physical enough to stop Naimov's takedowns and is the better striker. He expects Santos to counter Naimov's power shots effectively, batter his legs, and eventually secure a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"I believe Santos is physical enough to stop the takedowns of Naimov and be the better striker... eventually lead to a knockout victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Paul agrees, noting that Santos is a much better striker and that Naimov's takedowns are his only path. He believes Santos will defend takedowns and win a decision. He mentions that Santos by decision is around even money and is a good play.

"I expect him to do better in this fight. Stay off those takedown attempts from Naimov. He's a much better striker than Naimov."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

The Guru picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov, citing Santos' superior standup and damage ability compared to Naimov's control-based wins. He notes that Naimov's recent victories were close decisions relying on control time, while Santos has a clear win over Sadique Youssef and a KO of Kofley. The Guru believes Santos will finish Naimov in round two by KO.

round two KO
"The frogman will get it done in round two by KO over Muhammad Nimov."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

Zane picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is more dangerous moment to moment and has the physical tools to compete. He acknowledges that Naimov could use pressure and wrestling to neutralize Santos, but believes Santos's power and explosiveness give him the edge. Zane calls it a good matchup.

"I'm going to pick Santos, but the good fight, honestly, both guys, yeah, both guys have something to prove."
WIN vs Sodiq Yusuff
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sodiq Yusuff 0 36 of 86 41% 60 of 115 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:02
Mairon Santos 0 40 of 83 48% 71 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sodiq Yusuff 0 19 of 30 63% 19 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Mairon Santos 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Sodiq Yusuff 0 10 of 26 38% 29 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Mairon Santos 0 16 of 27 59% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
3 Sodiq Yusuff 0 7 of 30 23% 12 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:19
Mairon Santos 0 15 of 29 51% 36 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sodiq Yusuff 36 of 86 41% 9 of 44 9 of 19 18 of 23 35 of 84 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 40 of 83 48% 22 of 56 10 of 18 8 of 9 35 of 77 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sodiq Yusuff 19 of 30 63% 4 of 11 7 of 10 8 of 9 18 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 9 of 27 33% 4 of 18 2 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sodiq Yusuff 10 of 26 38% 3 of 15 2 of 6 5 of 5 10 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 16 of 27 59% 11 of 21 4 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 23 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Sodiq Yusuff 7 of 30 23% 2 of 18 0 of 3 5 of 9 7 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 15 of 29 51% 7 of 17 4 of 8 4 of 4 15 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Angelo picks Sodiq Yusuff as the underdog, but with hesitation. He notes that Yusuff is a fantastic striker with incredible speed and a wide variety of attacks, but is on a two-fight skid. He contrasts Santos's methodical approach with Diego Lopez's aggressive style that troubled Yusuff, suggesting that if Santos lets Yusuff settle in, Yusuff could win. However, he also acknowledges that Santos is good and could control the pace. Angelo's pick seems influenced by personal affinity for Yusuff's social media presence.

"I am actually going to pick Sadiq here. Going with the dog."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Big Brady picks Mairon Santos, citing his power and durability. He notes Sodiq Yusuff's inactivity, injuries, and questionable chin. He expects a standing banger and predicts Santos wins by first-round knockout, though he is not fully confident.

Santos by KO, round 1; under on total rounds
"I am going to go with Santos. ... I'll take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

The host thinks the public is low on Santos due to a controversial decision win, but sees this as a winnable fight for him. He expects Santos to dictate the pace with high output and volume, which should muzzle Yusuff, who needs a knockout to win. He leans with Santos to win on the scorecards.

Santos by decision
"Expect Santos to dictate the pace here, throw a lot of output and volume and that should ultimately muzzle Yousef who I think needs a knockout to win this matchup."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

The Guru picks Mairon Santos, calling him underrated and believing he should have won his last fight against Francis Marshall. He thinks Santos is talented and hungry, while Sodiq Yusuff is chinny and not a full-time fighter anymore. He predicts Santos will finish Yusuff by TKO, noting Yusuff gets wobbled easily.

Santos by TKO
"I'm going with Mron Santos over Sadiq Yousef."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mairon Santos 0 58 of 129 44% 78 of 154 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Francis Marshall 0 39 of 143 27% 64 of 179 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mairon Santos 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Francis Marshall 0 16 of 45 35% 36 of 76 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Mairon Santos 0 19 of 36 52% 19 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francis Marshall 0 8 of 40 20% 8 of 40 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:22
3 Mairon Santos 0 21 of 51 41% 41 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francis Marshall 0 15 of 58 25% 20 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mairon Santos 58 of 129 44% 29 of 80 14 of 30 15 of 19 57 of 128 1 of 1 0 of 0
Francis Marshall 39 of 143 27% 32 of 136 1 of 1 6 of 6 39 of 142 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mairon Santos 18 of 42 42% 5 of 21 4 of 10 9 of 11 17 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Francis Marshall 16 of 45 35% 10 of 39 1 of 1 5 of 5 16 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Mairon Santos 19 of 36 52% 10 of 23 4 of 7 5 of 6 19 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francis Marshall 8 of 40 20% 8 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mairon Santos 21 of 51 41% 14 of 36 6 of 13 1 of 2 21 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francis Marshall 15 of 58 25% 14 of 57 0 of 0 1 of 1 15 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-355), Marshall (+280)

Round 1
From one Santos to another we go (no relation), as the self-proclaimed “Legend” Santos (14-1, 1-0 UFC) tries to go for two in a row in the Octagon. To prevail, he will need to put out “Fire” Marshall (8-2, 2-2 UFC). The featherweights will be joined by referee Chris Tognoni, who clocks them as they elect not to touch gloves. Santos lunges forward with a front kick, and Marshall slips out of the way and beans him with a right hand over the top that stuns Santos. Santos tries to go one-for-one with his opponent, and Marshall sweeps him off his feet with a powerful calf kick. Marshall shoots in from a distance for a takedown, and the Brazilian skirts out of the way to get back to the center of the cage. When Santos gets off a leg kick, Marshall clips him with a left hand that stumbles him but does not put him down. Santos chambers and fires a low kick, knocking Marshall to his seat for a second. Marshall springs back up and darts in with a one-two, and he scores a leg kick and checks one coming back his way. Marshall backs off with a short combination as Santos bears down on him, and he lashes out with a right hand that just grazes off the chin. When Santos attacks a low kick, Marshall’s counter is primed and ready to fire. Marshall clips Santos with it, and Santos gets back in his face and clubs him with a right hand on the temple. Marshall’s success prompts the fans to cheer “USA” for him until he gets his, and then the chants die down. Marshall gets back to it with a few long punches, only to get chopped at with a leg kick. Marshall gives him one back to think about, and rolls with a booming right hand that bangs into the side of his head. Santos lets loose a leg kick, and Marshall shoots in with a telegraphed takedown and is met with an uppercut. Marshall winds up with a left hand and knocks “The Legend” to the canvas, and he immediately is faced with a takedown attempt. Marshall fights out of it to get to the side while Santos is trying to stand, and he beats on him on the side of the dome. Santos leans himself against the fencing, and Marshall drops in a few more right hands until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Marshall

Round 2
The fighters race towards one another to start off the second round, with Marshall looking for his jab early. Santos slaps one away and pops Marshall in the chops with his own. When Santos is faking low kicks, Marshall gets tired of reacting to them and smacks the Brazilian in the face with a left hand. Santos lunges at him with a left hook, and Marshall parries it and cannot get out of the way of two leg kicks, although he partially checks the second. Marshall scoops in a left uppercut when Santos leaves his guard down, and he rails a right hand around the guard to sting Santos. When Santos backpedals, Marshall chases him down and lands a few punches on his foe’s guard. Marshall disengages, and he tries to time a counter but is beaten to the punch by a leaping Santos. Marshall uses his jab to disallow Santos from loading up, and he swats away a front kick to catch his man with a left. The third strike in a combination from Santos busts up Marshall’s nose, which is firmly leaking at this point. Santos slaps a few low kicks in when there is a lull in the action, and Marshall springs into action with a big left hook that brushes past his intended target. Marshall rushes forward with a tackling takedown, taking Santos off his feet and drifting past Santos when the first try fails. Marshall grips Santos from behind and clasps his hands around the waist, kicking Santos’ feet out from underneath him a few times when Santos scampers back upright. Marshall grinds his adversary against the wire, looking for trips until Santos turns around. Marshall considers going after a single-leg takedown, but Santos uses a knee shield to push Marshall away from him and force a separation. Santos lets fly a head kick, and Marshall shrugs it off and blocks another from the other side right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Marshall

Round 3
The featherweights clap hands to get going in the last stanza, with Santos again in the center of the cage looking for leg kicks. Marshall spurs himself into action with three clubbing punches, only to back away when Santos is on him with power. Marshall sneaks a right hand in around the guard, and he slips away before Santos can bear down on him. Marshall intercepts an advancing Santos with a stiff jab, and he continues moving so Santos cannot trap him. Marshall leans forward and unleashes a right hand from an odd angle, and he dances out of harm’s way as Santos’ volume has diminished fairly significantly. Santos gets off two punches, but Marshall is elusive and throws back three. The Brazilian absorbs a left hand on the chin when coming forward despite his guard pinned to his jab, and Marshall is slicker and quicker. Santos tries to step in with a knee, and it is a few feet away from a moving Marshall. Marshall sits down on a handful of punches, ignoring what comes back his way and checking a leg kick. Marshall is in and out with a jab, slipping strikes and peppering “The Legend” with offense. Santos is one-and-done with a power overhand right, and he jabs out with a front kick off the midsection. Marshall thumps the front leg with a kick, and he turns his head out of the way of a right hand after completing his own combo. Santos stands firm and plants his fists on Marshall’s chin, and Marshall does not like this and shoots. Santos tries to roll with it, but Marshall smothers him and puts him flat on his back with 25 seconds remaining on the clock. Marshall resides in the closed guard, with Santos swatting at him with his hands that have nothing on them. Before Marshall can get off much ground-and-pound, time expires to conclude the pairing.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marshall (30-27 Marshall)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Marshall (30-27 Marshall)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Marshall (30-27 Marshall)

The Official Result
Mairon Santos def. Francis Marshall via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
WIN vs Kaan Ofli
KO (punch) R2 1:30 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mairon Santos 0 12 of 28 42% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:33
Kaan Ofli 1 31 of 67 46% 32 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mairon Santos 0 7 of 20 35% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
Kaan Ofli 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mairon Santos 0 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kaan Ofli 1 12 of 24 50% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mairon Santos 12 of 28 42% 10 of 22 1 of 2 1 of 4 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 31 of 67 46% 15 of 48 9 of 12 7 of 7 27 of 62 1 of 2 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mairon Santos 7 of 20 35% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 2 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 19 of 43 44% 9 of 33 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Mairon Santos 5 of 8 62% 3 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 12 of 24 50% 6 of 15 3 of 6 3 of 3 9 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 3
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Cody doesn't have a pick because the opponent for Ofli is not yet determined at the time of recording. He mentions that Santos and Ziggy Montes Rasa are the two best guys and the winner of that fight would beat Ofli. He says he needs to see the odds before making a decision.

"I would take the winner of that fight to beat offley who's probably not bad but man I got burned so bad by nickel I can't trust these random Australian guys no more"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Daniel Vreeland picks Kaan Ofli as the underdog, noting Ofli is likely the stronger grappler while Santos has big leg kicks but issues on the mat. He admits he is not very familiar with either fighter and advises caution.

"I'll probably go with the dog but this one I'm not as familiar with these two so take what I'm saying here with a grain of salt"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Paul doesn't have a pick because the opponent is unknown. He says it's impossible to provide betting advice without odds. He mentions he saw Ofli's fight and he looked solid, but needs more information.

"it's obviously pretty much impossible to provide betting advice when those things don't exist at the time of this recording"
Kaan Ofli - Fight History
SCHED vs Javier Reyes
WIN vs Yi Zha
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kaan Ofli 0 48 of 107 44% 53 of 114 0 of 7 0% 0 1 2:57
Yi Zha 1 68 of 124 54% 75 of 133 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kaan Ofli 0 23 of 38 60% 28 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:20
Yi Zha 0 19 of 34 55% 22 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Kaan Ofli 0 10 of 38 26% 10 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Yi Zha 1 31 of 57 54% 34 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
3 Kaan Ofli 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:37
Yi Zha 0 18 of 33 54% 19 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kaan Ofli 48 of 107 44% 22 of 78 19 of 22 7 of 7 38 of 91 7 of 11 3 of 5
Yi Zha 68 of 124 54% 44 of 93 17 of 24 7 of 7 58 of 109 5 of 7 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kaan Ofli 23 of 38 60% 10 of 24 12 of 13 1 of 1 15 of 26 5 of 7 3 of 5
Yi Zha 19 of 34 55% 14 of 26 1 of 4 4 of 4 18 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Kaan Ofli 10 of 38 26% 5 of 33 2 of 2 3 of 3 10 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yi Zha 31 of 57 54% 20 of 44 9 of 11 2 of 2 26 of 48 1 of 2 4 of 7
3 Kaan Ofli 15 of 31 48% 7 of 21 5 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 27 2 of 4 0 of 0
Yi Zha 18 of 33 54% 10 of 23 7 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 28 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Angelo picks Kaan Ofli as a slight lean, stating he is the better grappler and if he shoots first, he can have success because Yi Zha's takedown defense sucks. He acknowledges Yi Zha is the better striker and offensive grappler, but thinks Ofli's jiu-jitsu is better on the ground. He says betting moneyline would be dumb, but plus 3.5 might make sense.

plus 3.5 might make sense
"Slight lean Khan Offley. Betting a money line here would be dumb as hell, even though the odds are are solid. plus three and a half might make some sense."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Yi Zha

Big Brady picks Yi Zha based on activity, as Kaan Ofli does nothing in fights. He notes Zha is aggressive with wrestling and grappling, while Ofli has shown no output. He expects a decision win for Zha, though he doesn't love the -215 price.

"Give me EA to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Cody is picking Ofli as a value underdog, noting that Yi Zha has been outmuscled by stronger opponents and that Ofli has shown durability and a strong clinch game. He expects Ofli to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I don't want a two to one yet play and then have him just flop around... I'm going to go with Kane Ole. Don't love it, but that is going to be the play for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Ofli. He notes that Yi Zha's competition is weak and Ofli's power and bullying style should be effective. Connor also comments that the odds are not too bothersome, as both fighters are similar in level.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, probably I agree, you know. Yep, just a just a absolute bully. Yep."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Yi Zha

Daniel Vreeland picks Yi Zha, viewing him as a tough, battle-tested journeyman who is hungrier and more durable than Ofli. He dismisses Ofli as a mid-level fighter and believes Yi Zha's experience and toughness will carry him to victory.

"Pure pick, I'm going to go Yha to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Yi Zha

James picks Yi Zha, citing his better boxing, takedown ability, and veteran savvy. He believes Yi Zha can reverse Ofli's takedowns and win scrambles, and that his experience will lead to a decision victory.

"I got Yizar as the winner."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Ofli is a BJJ black belt with good wrestling and striking, though he has had some losses. Yi Zha is a grappler but not as aggressive or dominant as Ofli's previous opponents. Ofli should be able to stuff takedowns and have success on the feet, where he has an edge in explosiveness. The host is surprised Ofli is an underdog and expects him to win by decision, possibly pulling off the upset.

Ofli by decision
"I'm going to go off. I I think he pulls off the upside here. I think he wins by decision and I think plus 165 is more than good enough to to take a shot on the Turkish uh Australian …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Paul also leans toward Ofli, noting that Yi Zha was knocked out by Myron Santos and that Ofli has shown he will cheat to win. He sees value in the underdog.

"Confly kind of showed us that he will cheat to get the win, too. And at plus 170 plus 180, I mean, I think you could do worse."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Yi Zha

The Guru picks Yi Zha, calling him underrated and noting his impressive debut knockout of Weston Wilson. He highlights Yi's grappling ability, chin advantage, and striking power. He predicts a first-round TKO, citing Yi's aggression and experience from Road to UFC.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with YA by first round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Zane picks Kaan Ofli because he is a powerful, bullying fighter who will overwhelm Yi Zha with aggression. He notes that Yi Zha's record is padded with low-level competition and he does not have applicable skills for the UFC. Ofli's power and athleticism should be too much for Yi Zha.

Ofli opened at +160, now +168; Yi Zha opened at -185, now -193. Zane says he doesn't see it but is not bothered by the odds.
"I have to pick con awfully. He's not nuanced in any way shape or form, but he is a he is like the prototypical regional power MMA fighter a strong athlete who has decided to strong man their way through …"
WIN vs Ricardo Ramos
Submission R1 3:02 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ricardo Ramos 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:00
Kaan Ofli 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ricardo Ramos 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:00
Kaan Ofli 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ricardo Ramos 1 of 4 25% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ricardo Ramos 1 of 4 25% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Angelo picks Ricardo Ramos, trusting his wrestling training at Team Alpha Male to be ahead in exchanges. He believes Ramos is the better striker and can keep the fight standing. However, he is shocked at the 2-to-1 odds and does not like them, noting Ramos has been taken down before and could be ridden out.

"Ramos is going to be the pick because hopefully he can keep this standing, and he's the better striker. But I do not like these odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos despite being hesitant, as he considers Ramos the much more skilled fighter. He questions Ramos's durability, fight IQ, submission defense, and heart, noting he has been submitted multiple times and looked for ways out. He also questions Ofli's chin, grappling, wrestling, and striking. Brady expects Ramos to win by decision but acknowledges Ramos might beat himself.

"I'm going to pick Ramos just cuz I think he's the much more skilled fighter. I really don't think it's close, but sometimes the more skilled fighter doesn't always win, but I'm going to take Ramos to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Cody picks Ramos but is cautious, noting his lack of game plan and reliance on flashy techniques. He believes Ramos's size and experience advantage, plus training at Fighting Nerds, could lead to a win, but he's not confident at -175.

"I am taking him as well, but I don't want to pay too much for sure."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Lucrative James picks Ricardo Ramos, believing he is a level above Kaan Ofli, who hasn't proven to be UFC caliber. He notes Ramos's dangerous spinning attacks and submission skills, but also his tendency to gas out. He expects a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or KO. He is not very confident due to Ramos's inconsistency.

under 2.5 rounds (+money), Ricardo Ramos by submission (+350), Ricardo Ramos by KO (+450)
"I'm going to take Ricardo Ramos in this one. I'm going to say he gets it done inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Manpreet leans towards Ramos but with low confidence, citing Ramos's recent poor form. He believes Ramos's takedown defense and grappling will force Ofli to strike, where Ramos is the better technical striker. He expects Ramos to win by decision, but notes that Ofli's wide hooks could be countered. He is not confident enough to bet the chalk.

Ramos by decision
"I'll lean Khamzat here. Not a whole lot of confidence."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Paul picks Ramos but is hesitant due to his volatility. He notes Ramos's higher ceiling and home crowd advantage, but acknowledges the risk of laying chalk on an inconsistent fighter. He expects a win but warns against heavy investment.

"I'm going to go with Ricaro Ramos. One, Brazil. Two, back against the wall. Three, I think the ceiling has been higher for him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

The MMA Guru picks Kaan Ofli over Ricardo Ramos, despite a rule against picking Ramos. He notes Ramos has lost 4 of his last 5 and is untrustworthy, while Ofli has good pressure and wrestling. He predicts a close decision win for Ofli based on control time.

"I'm going to go with Kofley getting this one done. Very close decision. That's what I think."
LOSS vs Muhammad Naimov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 32 of 92 34% 79 of 176 2 of 2 100% 0 0 5:36
Kaan Ofli 0 31 of 66 46% 57 of 97 0 of 6 0% 0 0 3:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 14 of 34 41% 32 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Kaan Ofli 0 11 of 27 40% 23 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:21
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 33 30% 25 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Kaan Ofli 0 11 of 21 52% 19 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:03
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 8 of 25 32% 22 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:25
Kaan Ofli 0 9 of 18 50% 15 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 32 of 92 34% 23 of 79 8 of 12 1 of 1 22 of 73 6 of 6 4 of 13
Kaan Ofli 31 of 66 46% 5 of 30 16 of 21 10 of 15 14 of 44 17 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 14 of 34 41% 7 of 23 6 of 10 1 of 1 10 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 11 of 27 40% 2 of 12 7 of 9 2 of 6 6 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 33 30% 8 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 11 of 21 52% 1 of 10 4 of 5 6 of 6 6 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 8 of 25 32% 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 13
Kaan Ofli 9 of 18 50% 2 of 8 5 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 7 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Muhammad Naimov, citing his well-rounded skills, speed, and athleticism. He notes that Kaan Ofli is a BJJ black belt but lacks the length and wrestling to be effective at this level. He believes Naimov's striking and takedown defense will be key, and he is growing more confident in Naimov as fight week progresses.

"Muhammad naov is the pick and I am more and more confident every day"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Big Brady is not high on Muhammad Naimov but thinks this is a good matchup for him. He notes Kaan Ofli laid an egg in his last fight and was brutally knocked out. Brady expects Naimov to be the better striker and knock Ofli out in the first round, though he would never lay -300 on Naimov.

first round knockout
"give me naob I'll take him imob to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Connor picks Naimov, citing his superior athleticism and strength. He notes that both fighters are similar brawlers, but Naimov is a slightly better athlete and has a more durable chin. Connor believes Naimov's physicality and ability to win scrambles will be the difference, and that Ofli's tendency to crash the pocket will play into Naimov's strengths.

"I'm just going to take Naimaw up here. Hopefully, I thought he was one of the better prospects on the Ultimate Fighter, but I also thought that nobody on the Ultimate Fighter was really all that good."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Naimov has more powerful striking and will land more often, winning on the scorecards if he can't get a late finish. Both fighters like to wrestle and have power, but Naimov's output and power are expected to be the difference.

"I believe it's going to be Naimov that ends up coming out on top landing the more powerful strikes landing more often and end up winning this fight on the scorecards if he's unable to get the finish late."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov to win by KO in the second round or late first. He believes Naimov has wicked grappling skills and knockout power, and that Ofli's short reach (66 inches) will be a disadvantage. He thinks Naimov will have an advantage on the feet and won't be outmuscled.

KO win, second round or late first
"I'm actually going to call a KO win for muhamed naov maybe in the second round or late in the first"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Zane picks Naimov, agreeing that he is the stronger athlete and more likely to win the physical exchanges. He notes that Ofli's game is one-dimensional and that Naimov's durability and power should carry him. Zane also points out that Ofli's loss to Myron Santos showed he can be overwhelmed, and Naimov presents a similar challenge.

"I'm just going to take Naimaw up here. Hopefully, I thought he was one of the better prospects on the Ultimate Fighter, but I also thought that nobody on the Ultimate Fighter was really all that good."
LOSS vs Mairon Santos
KO (punch) R2 1:30 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mairon Santos 0 12 of 28 42% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:33
Kaan Ofli 1 31 of 67 46% 32 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mairon Santos 0 7 of 20 35% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
Kaan Ofli 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mairon Santos 0 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kaan Ofli 1 12 of 24 50% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mairon Santos 12 of 28 42% 10 of 22 1 of 2 1 of 4 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 31 of 67 46% 15 of 48 9 of 12 7 of 7 27 of 62 1 of 2 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mairon Santos 7 of 20 35% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 2 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 19 of 43 44% 9 of 33 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Mairon Santos 5 of 8 62% 3 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 12 of 24 50% 6 of 15 3 of 6 3 of 3 9 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 3
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Cody doesn't have a pick because the opponent for Ofli is not yet determined at the time of recording. He mentions that Santos and Ziggy Montes Rasa are the two best guys and the winner of that fight would beat Ofli. He says he needs to see the odds before making a decision.

"I would take the winner of that fight to beat offley who's probably not bad but man I got burned so bad by nickel I can't trust these random Australian guys no more"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Daniel Vreeland picks Kaan Ofli as the underdog, noting Ofli is likely the stronger grappler while Santos has big leg kicks but issues on the mat. He admits he is not very familiar with either fighter and advises caution.

"I'll probably go with the dog but this one I'm not as familiar with these two so take what I'm saying here with a grain of salt"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Paul doesn't have a pick because the opponent is unknown. He says it's impossible to provide betting advice without odds. He mentions he saw Ofli's fight and he looked solid, but needs more information.

"it's obviously pretty much impossible to provide betting advice when those things don't exist at the time of this recording"
Expert Picks (3)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
No clear pick

Cody doesn't have a pick because the opponent for Ofli is not yet determined at the time of recording. He mentions that Santos and Ziggy Montes Rasa are the two best guys and the winner of that fight would beat Ofli. He says he needs to see the odds before making a decision.

"I would take the winner of that fight to beat offley who's probably not bad but man I got burned so bad by nickel I can't trust these random Australian guys no more"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Daniel Vreeland picks Kaan Ofli as the underdog, noting Ofli is likely the stronger grappler while Santos has big leg kicks but issues on the mat. He admits he is not very familiar with either fighter and advises caution.

"I'll probably go with the dog but this one I'm not as familiar with these two so take what I'm saying here with a grain of salt"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul doesn't have a pick because the opponent is unknown. He says it's impossible to provide betting advice without odds. He mentions he saw Ofli's fight and he looked solid, but needs more information.

"it's obviously pretty much impossible to provide betting advice when those things don't exist at the time of this recording"