Michael Morales

7-0
Record
Age / DOB 26
(Jun 24, 1999)
Height 6' 0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Reach 79.0"
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages
5.68 Sig. Strikes / Min
49.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
3.26 Absorbed / Min
53.0% Strike Defense
1.04 TD Avg / 15 min
41.0% TD Accuracy
89.0% TD Defense
0.0 Sub. / Fight
Win Methods (7)
KO/TKO 5
Submission 0
Decision 2

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
UFC 322
Nov 15, 2025
KO R1 3:27
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Brady 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Morales 1 24 of 52 46% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Brady 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Morales 1 24 of 52 46% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Brady 8 of 22 36% 5 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 7 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 24 of 52 46% 24 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 1 21 of 47 0 of 1 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Brady 8 of 22 36% 5 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 7 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 24 of 52 46% 24 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 1 21 of 47 0 of 1 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-142), Morales (+120)

Round 1
Blake Grice is the referee. Brady circles on the outside, probing with leg kicks. Morales flicks out a couple jabs. Morales continues to throw that jab and he’s gradually starting to find the range on it. Brady leaps in with a hook. Brady lands a hard low kick. Moraes rocks Brady with a right hand, and he tees off with a series of impactful punches during an ensuing barrage. Brady looks like he’s on wobby legs, but he’s able to eventually shove Morales off of him for a brief reset. Morales steps in with an uppercut. The long jab remains effective for Morales, who is brimming with confidence. Brady gets clipped with another right hand and Morales pressures forward with heavy punches. Brady is in survival mode so far, and he’s been unable to close distance to impose his grappling. Morales goes back to the jab, then clips Brady with a right hand over the top. Three more punches connect and Brady goes down. Morales drops a few hammerfists before Grice steps in to save a reeling Brady. The Ecuardorian’s undefeated run continues in impressive fashion, and he might have solidified his claim for a future welterweight title shot.

The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Sean Brady via TKO (Punches) R1 3:27
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Angelo picks Sean Brady, believing his relentless wrestling and pressure will stifle Michael Morales, who needs space to strike. He notes Brady's takedowns and control are elite, and Morales doesn't wrestle often despite his credentials. He hopes the line tightens and plans to bet on Brady.

"Brady's going to be the pick. I'm hoping this line continues to tighten... I like Shawn Brady here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales as a slight underdog, struggling with this fight. He acknowledges Sean Brady's elite wrestling and grappling but notes that if Brady can't get takedowns, he is vulnerable to getting knocked out, as seen in the Belal Muhammad fight. Brady believes Morales hits harder than Muhammad and has a size advantage, making him tough to take down early. He predicts Morales will stuff takedowns and knock out Brady in the first round.

first round knockout
"I'll go Morales by first round knockout here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales despite acknowledging Brady's superior grappling. He highlights Morales's size, youth, reach advantage, and improving takedown defense. He notes that Brady's striking defense is poor and that Morales has power and unorthodox striking. Cody believes Morales can either knock Brady out or win a decision by outworking him on the feet.

"Morales may knock him out. But even if he doesn't, I think he can win just two of the three rounds and get a get a decision on the scorecards."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Connor picks Brady, citing his well-rounded game, strong wrestling, and improved striking composure. He notes that Morales is a raw athlete with no real game plan, relying on physical gifts. However, he flags a major X-factor: Morales has a 79-inch reach, which could cause Brady striking issues he hasn't faced before.

Odds: Brady opened -135, still -135; Morales opened +115, still +115.
"I'm still picking Sean Brady. Yeah, but I am saying there is actually a huge x factor here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel is torn but leans toward Morales as a slight underdog. He acknowledges Brady's impressive recent form and top control, but notes Morales' freak athleticism, underrated takedown defense, and ability to power out of bad spots. He sees the fight as 50-50 and likes the plus money on Morales.

"I think I gotta go with the dog odds of Michael Morales here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Lucrative James picks Sean Brady to win, but with low confidence. He believes Morales' athleticism and power will be dangerous early, but Brady's superior grappling and cardio will take over in later rounds. He notes Morales' massive weight cut may affect his gas tank, while Brady has proven he can go five rounds. He expects Brady to survive the early striking exchanges and then dominate on the ground, possibly securing a submission or decision.

"I'm going to pick Shawn Brady in this fight. The level of competition for Shawn Brady has been higher, has been better."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Morales' freak athleticism, power, strength, and speed come through. He stops takedowns or works back to his feet, lands bigger shots on the feet, and gets a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"I expect the freak athleticism, power, strength, and speed of Morales to come through for him. ... I think he'll land bigger, better shots, which should lead to an eventual knockout victory for Morales."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Morales is getting better and that Brady's grappling might not work against a bigger, younger opponent. He mentions that Morales's career trajectory is upward and that he looks like a problem for the division. Paul thinks the first exchange will reveal how effective Brady's wrestling is, but he leans towards Morales.

"Morales is the pick for me as well for a pretty much all the things that you highlighted."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

The Guru picks Sean Brady to win, likely by submission or decision. He highlights Brady's superior grappling and physicality, which should overwhelm Morales, who has shown vulnerability to takedowns. Brady's dominant win over Leon Edwards is a key reference. The Guru acknowledges Morales' power but believes Brady's pressure and clinch work will be decisive.

"I'm gonna go with Shawn Brady. I think Brady's going to either win by submission or it'll be a close decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Brady. He emphasizes Brady's rock-solid wrestling and improved striking, and notes that Morales has never faced a high-level wrestler. He acknowledges the reach advantage but believes Brady's strength and experience will prevail.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm picking Sean Brady right there with you. But, you know, and I'll be really impressed with Michael Morales, if he can win this fight..."
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Michael Morales 2 33 of 56 58% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Michael Morales 2 33 of 56 58% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 5 of 18 27% 4 of 13 0 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 33 of 56 58% 31 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 4 25 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 5 of 18 27% 4 of 13 0 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 33 of 56 58% 31 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 4 25 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-850), Burns (+575)

Round 1
In keeping with the theme of fights that promise action and intensity, the main event should be just what the doctor ordered. Former title challenger Burns (22-8, 15-8 UFC) may have his best days behind him, but “Durinho” is still as dangerous at it comes at 170 pounds. To keep himself in top contention, he will need to deflate the momentum of Morales (17-0, 5-0 UFC), who would like nothing more than to have a breakout performance at the expense of the vaunted grappler. Referee Herb Dean brings these two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions, and they stoically bump fists to seal the cage and make things official. It’s time for some action. It is Morales who claims the center of the Monster Logo on the floor, while Burns circles around him. Burns circles away from the power side of the Ecuadorian, and he lets loose a low kick that slaps loudly. When Morales retaliates with a calf kick, it is a thudding sound. Burns leaps forward to strike, and Morales dances out of the way and punches him around the back of the ear. Burns launches a kick up high, and Morales parries and lobs a jab back. Burns throws a fastball of a right hand that is well off the mark, but his check left hook does catch the chin. Morales lines up a heavy right hand that back off Burns, and he gets clipped by the older man. Burns marches him down looping hooks, and Morales rolls with the punches and jabs his way forward. Burns counters and takes a few more jabs on the nose, and he absorbs a thumping kick on his calf. Morales connects with a crisp uppercut, shaking up the grappler and forcing him to shoot for a takedown. Morales is dragged to his seat for a moment, and Burns wraps his arms around him as Morales stands. Burns leans in close and tight, but Morales pushes him back and unloads with power punches. Morales knocks Burns back to the wall courtesy of a clubbing right hand, and his onslaught slowly breaks Burns down and puts him on the ground.
Dean calls for Burns to fight back, and Burns answers by ducking under and grabbing his foe's legs awkwardly for some kind of desperation takedown. Morales steps over it, allows Burns to stand and lays into him with a blistering salvo of bombarding fists that puts “Durinho” down for the count again. This time, as Dean observes that Burns’ face is bleeding and he is in a bad way, he waves the fight off.
Burns sits up, but he does not protest, knowing that the day is not his. Morales has just passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, destroying a durable top talent in the first round and not looking back. When Burns gets back to his feet, he needs a minute to recover, but he embraces the man who ran through him like no one has at 170 pounds. The 25-year-old handles the huge moment with poise, dedicating the victory to his mother and thanking her for her advice while declaring that he is ready for the next challenge, whatever that may be. Morales says he is healthy and ready to go, so with any luck, he will be back in the cage at least one more time this year. When he fights next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Gilbert Burns R1 3:39 via TKO (Punches)
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, citing that Morales is a better wrestler, striker, bigger, faster, stronger, and younger than Gilbert Burns. He notes that Burns is on the wrong side of 35 and coming off a loss to Sean Brady where his grappling was neutralized. Angelo questions what game plan Burns could have, as Morales is a national wrestling champion and Burns was just knocked out. He is shocked Morales is only -600 and expects the line to close at -1000.

Angelo is shocked Morales is only -600, expects line to close at -1000.
"Mic Morales is the pick. He's a better wrestler, a better striker. He's bigger. He's faster. He's stronger. He's younger."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales, citing Burns' age (38), three-fight skid, and declining durability. He notes Morales is a much better striker with volume and power, and expects him to find Burns' chin. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Morales by KO, round 2
"I like Morales. I like him quite a bit. ... I'll take Michael Morales to win this fight. And I think he's going to find the chin of Gilbert Burns. And I think he finds it within the first probably first 15 minutes. I'll say second round knockout though for Michael Morales."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

The host thinks Morales is a huge favorite but not justified given Burns' strength of schedule; Burns' three-fight losing streak came against top competition. He gives Burns the benefit of the doubt as a championship gatekeeper but worries if Burns can't dictate pace or get takedowns, his cardio fades and Morales can take over and knock him out. He picks Morales to win by knockout, but notes minus 800 is tough to get behind. He also leans under 3.5 rounds.

Morales by KO; under 3.5 rounds; odds comment: minus 800 tough to get behind
"I think the Ecuadorian improves his record to 18 and 0 by knocking out Gilbert Burns."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

The Guru picks Michael Morales, calling him a crazy natural athlete who controls distance well and switches stances. He thinks Burns is past his prime and lacks the grit to engage, citing the Sean Brady fight where Burns didn't let his hands go. He believes the five-round fight benefits Morales' picking style and predicts a decision win (49-46). He notes the -850 odds are insane and thinks Morales is not that good, but still picks him.

Morales by decision (49-46); odds comment: -850 is insane
"I'm going to go with Michael Morales here over Gilbert Burns."
TKO (punches) R1 4:39
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:05
Neil Magny 1 34 of 40 85% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 5 of 11 45% 1 of 7 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1
Neil Magny 34 of 40 85% 30 of 35 0 of 0 4 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 35
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, calling himself a 'big Michael Morales guy.' He highlights Morales' national championships in freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai, his fantastic footwork, and his clean takedowns. He believes Morales is better than Magny everywhere and will win with accurate striking and takedowns. He notes Magny's age and recent comeback win but thinks Morales is the superior fighter.

"I think Morales is better than Magny literally everywhere literally everywhere I can't think of a single aspect in MMA where Neil Magny is better"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales because he is a young, talented prospect with a judo background and power. He thinks Morales will outwork Magny and possibly get a finish. He notes that Magny has looked slow and flat-footed in recent fights and has been outworked by lesser fighters. He believes Morales' cardio is good and he won't fade like some prospects.

Michael Morales by decision
"sign me up for Michael Morales but at 850 at 850 we got to be talking about this thing like it is a slam dunk Surefire thing"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Michael Morales, arguing that Morales thrives in the clinch where Magny often beats opponents. He notes Morales' improving hands and wrestling background, and believes he will beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish.

finish
"I think is going to actually beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Brevin picks Magny as a big underdog, citing his experience against top competition, his size and reach advantage, and his grappling edge. He thinks Morales is overhyped and will get fraud-checked. He notes Magny is a gatekeeper who often wins these matchups. JP disagrees, picking Morales, calling Magny a 40-year-old gatekeeper who goes to decision and has shown his ceiling. JP thinks Morales is better and younger.

Magny by submission (potential)
"I'm gonna take another big Underdog here give me Neil Magny wow give me Neil Magny to get done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul takes a small shot on Magny at +600 because he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Morales has looked good but has dropped rounds and hasn't faced a veteran like Magny. He thinks Magny's cardio and clinch work could give Morales problems if the fight goes deep. He admits Morales likely wins but the price is worth a small bet.

"I took a small poke on Neil magn at plus 600 um it's not going to kill me either way"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales because he believes Neil Magny is past his prime at 37 and does not check low kicks. He notes Morales is young (25), talented, and has good wins over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin. He expects Morales to attack the low kicks and stuff takedowns, winning on the feet.

"I'm going to go with Michael Morales um he beat Jake Matthews I think that's a decent win Max Griffin a decent win"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 0 84 of 208 40% 84 of 208 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Jake Matthews 0 57 of 149 38% 57 of 149 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jake Matthews 0 14 of 40 35% 14 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Morales 0 36 of 77 46% 36 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Matthews 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Morales 0 22 of 58 37% 22 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jake Matthews 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 84 of 208 40% 45 of 157 12 of 17 27 of 34 80 of 197 4 of 11 0 of 0
Jake Matthews 57 of 149 38% 33 of 109 17 of 24 7 of 16 54 of 146 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 26 of 73 35% 12 of 54 3 of 5 11 of 14 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jake Matthews 14 of 40 35% 7 of 26 6 of 11 1 of 3 13 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Morales 36 of 77 46% 20 of 58 7 of 10 9 of 9 32 of 68 4 of 9 0 of 0
Jake Matthews 18 of 46 39% 13 of 37 3 of 3 2 of 6 18 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Morales 22 of 58 37% 13 of 45 2 of 2 7 of 11 22 of 56 0 of 2 0 of 0
Jake Matthews 25 of 63 39% 13 of 46 8 of 10 4 of 7 23 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jake Matthews vs. Michael Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-270), Matthews (+230)

Round 1
The winner of this co-main event may earn a place in the top 15 at welterweight. It could be undefeated 23-year-old wunderkind Morales (15-0, 3-0 UFC), or former wunderkind-turned-veteran Matthews (19-6, 12-6 UFC). Referee Herb Dean will know which one it is first, and he is confident this will be all above board. The 170ers calmly slap fists, and Morales snaps out a jab. Matthews does the same, as they use it as a rangefinder. Morales scores an inside leg kick that lands with a thump, and he just misses with a left hook. Morales bounces off the fence with a Superman punch that Matthews bats away, and Matthews backs him off with a right hand. Morales rebounds with a right of his own, and he slips in a jab to break up a combination that buzzes his hair. Matthews digs to the body as he eats a leg kick, and Morales’ jab has already reddened Matthews’ face up a bit. Matthews overswings and stumbles, and Morales lets him up so that he can stick the jab in his face. Morales connects with a slapping kick, and Matthews unloads with an overhand left that surprises his foe. Morales fires back with a right hand down the pipe, and Matthews staggers but does not fall down. The two reset and start trading calf kicks one after the other, and Matthews breaks the chain with a swatting left to the body. Morales sits down on a leg kick, and Matthews jabs him of his feet. Morales climbs back up and is quick to engage with a one-two, and he kicks out Matthews’ leg to drop Matthews to a knee. Matthews returns to his feet and blocks a trio of punched aimed at his mug. Morales plants a one-two on the jaw, and he looks to follow it with a flying knee but is caught in midair and hurled down to the mat. Morales springs back up as Matthews raises his eyebrows, and Matthews swings a right hand and gets jabbed back. Morales peppers the lead leg and comes up short with a jumping switch kick, and again Matthews raises his eyebrows. The Aussie surges forward with a left and a right, and Morales tanks them right on the chin and shrugs them off. Morales leaps at him with a flying knee, and he lands to attempt a takedown. Morales attempts one more Superman punch off the cage, and the tense round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 2
The welterweights bump their fists together before trading them. They feint leg kicks, and Morales jumps forward with a right hand. When Matthews attempts to respond, Morales digs his shin in the calf. Morales whiffs on a counter when Matthews pops him, and jumps forward with a stomp kick to the knee. Morales gets his jab going again, disrupting the overhand right from “The Celtic Kid,” and he stings Matthews with a long and powerful series of uppercuts. Matthews shakes his head when he escapes, and he chips at Morales’ calf and wings a right hand that comes up short. Matthews has a one-two bounce off gloves, and Morales answers him with a thudding kick to the calf that is showing some damage. Matthews paws out his own jab, and they both throw hands and catch the other. Morales shakes his arms out, and he turns to dodge the worst of a one-two coming at his face. Morales gets off a few inside kicks, and he jabs as Matthews kicks him back. Morales ducks a looping right hand and hops away from darting offense so he can counter with sharp strikes. Morales slips and rips with a right hand, and he does eat a right hand on the way out after landing a few strikes of his own. Morales peppers out the jab and eats a right hand for his effort, and he answers a few strikes with a Superman punch. Matthews digs to the body, and Morales rifles back a quick and dangerous right hand that snaps the head back. Matthews keeps a stiff upper lip as he eats a few jabs on the nose, and he swats out a left hook and keeps his guard up as Morales springs into action. Morales jump with a knee, a body kick, and he releases a long series of punches and a high kick at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
There is a final tap of the gloves to start off the last round, and Matthews strikes first with a kick from either leg. Morales shuts down a punch by working the lead leg, and Matthews beats him to the punch with a few additional strikes. Matthews fires off a one-two, and a leg kick that follows slams right into the 23-year-old’s cup. Morales groans as Dean calls time, and it does not take long before Morales signals he is ready to go. Just 30 seconds elapse before the fight resumes, and Matthews wants to take advantage of the discomfort by crowding his adversary with looping punches. Morales strafes away and counters, and he settles down and prods out a jab. Morales shakes his hands out and starts doing the Ali Shuffle, and he leaps into action with a knee that flies past the Australian. Matthews lunges with two punches, and Morales slides just to the side and counters with a right hand. Morales drives a kick to the calf, and Matthews stumbles. He kicks the same spot, and Matthews catches his leg and tries to take Morales down. Morales recovers his balance and swats away a jumping front kick. Matthews attempts a one-two, and Morales parries him with ease. When Matthews jabs the body, Morales kicks him on the inside of the leg. The unbeaten fighter continues working the leg on both sides, and he stays out of range from the power punches hurled back his direction. Morales lands a right hand after evading Matthews’, and Morales throws two punches and a body kick that strikes the peninsula south of the equator. Matthews groans from the foul, and Dean pauses the fight for a few seconds before Matthews waves them back on. Matthews charges with a pair of punches, and Morales steps to the side and releases two kicks with the same leg in rapid succession. Morales drives a shovel uppercut that brushes the beard, and Matthews goes after him and puts hands on his opponent. Morales throws back, keeping composed and still barely breaking a sweat after nearly 15 minutes of activity. Matthews tries to corner him and lay into him, and Morales pushes him away and snipes him with an uppercut. With 15 seconds to go, the Ecuadorian attempts a takedown, and Matthews shuts it down and lets his hands go. They brawl it out to end the fight, with a jump knee by Morales mixed in during the final slugfest. They hear the final bell, and hug it out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (30-27 Morales)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (30-27 Morales)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales (30-27 Morales)

The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Jake Matthews via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo is very confident in Michael Morales, calling him an incredible prospect with wrestling and Muay Thai credentials. He notes Morales has cardio and finishes fights. He thinks -255 feels like a discount and that Morales can be parlayed. He expects Morales to dominate.

Odds comment: minus 255 feels like a discount; can be parlayed
"Michael Morales is the very confident pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady thinks Matthews' wins are against low-level competition and that Morales has a massive reach advantage (7 inches), higher volume, and power. He notes Matthews gets knocked down often, as in the Semelsberger fight. He predicts Morales wins by decision, citing the reach, volume, and strength as key differences.

"I'm going to take Morales to win this fight by decision I think the power the reach the size is going to be the difference here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Michael Morales confidently, citing his youth, physical strength, and 92% takedown defense. He notes that Jake Matthews struggles against decent competition, has low striking volume, and poor durability. Morales has a 6-inch reach advantage and can win by knockout or decision. Cody expects Morales to out-strike Matthews and stuff takedowns, leading to a win.

"Morales should be the Victor so that that is the pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

Morales is a physical specimen with power and takedown defense. Matthews is inconsistent and may struggle to take Morales down, forcing him to strike where Morales has the advantage. Morales is faster and stronger, and will likely land a knockout in the first or second round.

win inside the distance
"I still believe Morales gets his hand raised and I think he does it inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Morales' reach advantage and ability to keep the fight at range. He mentions Morales' judo background and confidence on the ground. Paul thinks the line is a bit wide but expects Morales to show improvements and win.

"I'm with you Michael Morales minus 310 for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales over Jake Matthews, predicting a decision win with Matthews getting knocked down in key moments. He criticizes Matthews as a boxer with a double leg who doesn't surprise opponents. He notes Morales' reach, power, and dynamism as the difference, and compares Matthews' performance to a Matt Semelsberger-like showing.

decision 30-27, Matthews knocked down
"I'm going to go Michael Morales... I think the reach difference, the power difference, the dynamic difference... is going to be the difference here."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 0 36 of 102 35% 39 of 105 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:10
Max Griffin 0 72 of 164 43% 73 of 165 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 11 of 26 42% 13 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:14
Max Griffin 0 15 of 40 37% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Michael Morales 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Max Griffin 0 31 of 70 44% 31 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Michael Morales 0 10 of 38 26% 11 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:51
Max Griffin 0 26 of 54 48% 27 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 36 of 102 35% 28 of 93 4 of 4 4 of 5 35 of 99 1 of 3 0 of 0
Max Griffin 72 of 164 43% 59 of 145 5 of 8 8 of 11 68 of 159 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 11 of 26 42% 8 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 3 11 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
Max Griffin 15 of 40 37% 9 of 31 3 of 4 3 of 5 13 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Michael Morales 15 of 38 39% 10 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Max Griffin 31 of 70 44% 30 of 67 1 of 2 0 of 1 29 of 67 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Michael Morales 10 of 38 26% 10 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Max Griffin 26 of 54 48% 20 of 47 1 of 2 5 of 5 26 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-240), Griffin (+200)

Round 1
Welterweights take center stage in the “featured fight of the night” slot, as Griffin (19-9, 7-7 UFC) has clawed his way back towards a .500 record courtesy of four wins in his last five appearances. While the last 14 fights for Griffin have been 50/50, the same cannot be said about opponent Morales (14-0, 2-0 UFC), who is a perfect 14 up and none down. The two are 14 years apart, and referee Kerry Hatley stands guard for the battle of 14s. There is no glove touch, and Griffin is active early on moving from side to side and staying on the outside. “Pain” causes some early pain with low kicks, and he is met with sharp jabs from the unbeaten youngster. Morales reaches his foe with a looping one-two, and he backs off when Griffin kicks the inside of his calf. They both snap out jabs, but Morales’ is faster and prods the nose. Griffin swings and misses, with Morales dancing out of the way of the punches but not the follow-up leg kick. Griffin charges with a stream of punches, and Morales bends over to avoid them and leaps at his man with a jump knee. There is a reset period, and Morales then attacks again with a flying knee that claps off the cup of the American. Griffin waves Hatley off, and he surges into action with a takedown attempt. Morales turns him around and separates, but Griffin is on him and his left hand has developed some swelling on Morales’ right eye. Griffin presses his weight on his opponent, and he gets kneed in the face by the younger man. Morales shakes Griffin off to get away, and he leaps at his opponent with a Superman punch. Morales lands and comes out swinging, and Griffin backs him into the fence with a clubbing right hand. Morales jumps with another kick, and his foot once more bounces into Griffin’s cup. Hatley does not recognize it, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Morales claims the center of the cage and flashes out his jab. Griffin lunges in with a long left hand, and he backs away when Morales jumps at him with a kick. Morales tags Griffin with three punches, and Griffin shakes it out and gets staggered by a right hand. Morales charges into action, throwing so hard he almost falls over, and he rocks Griffin with another overhand right. Griffin sits down on a counter right, but Morales walks through it and is now in stalking mode. Griffin sticks him with a right but eats one right back, and his chin is durable and his counters effective enough to slow Morales down for a moment. Griffin gathers his thoughts and absorbs a jab, and he skirts out of the way when Morales tries to bust him in the chops. Morales flicks out a few jabs to open a cut under Griffin’s left eye, and he stays composed and walks through a body kick to aim a right over the top. Morales lands two more jabs, and Griffin looks for an overhand right and backs away when Morales charges. Griffin lets loose with a leg kick, and he ducks a huge right hand that blows past his hair. Morales swings so hard that Griffin is able to duck it, change levels and go for a takedown. Morales shuts down the attempt and circles away, thanks in part to a kimura threat of his own. Morales pops his foe again with a few jabs, and he resets with a minute left in the round. Griffin blitzes but misses, and Morales nods at him and makes him backpedal. Morales tags Griffin with a Superman punch, and as he pours it on, a knee from up close bumps into Griffin’s cup and forces a 30-second pause. Griffin gets jabbed when they restart, and he throws a simultaneous head kick that is easily blocked. Morales jabs into a high kick, and he raises his arm in the air with a few seconds left in the round to lure Griffin into a slugfest. Morales gets off a few more shots before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
Five minutes remain, and it could be tied up going into this last round. They proceed to throw big hands, and Morales eats a left hook and nods. Morales pushes out a jab, and he slides away when Griffin throws a haymaker. Griffin misses with a head kick and attacks a takedown, and he gets nailed with a flying knee. Griffin bounces off the fence and the two gets back to striking range. Griffin tries to close in on his opponent, and he crashes right into Morales’ hip and bounces off the fence. Griffin manages to grab Morales from behind while the Ecuadorian leans against the cage, and he turns around and goes after a double. Lifting the unbeaten fighter off the ground, he dumps Morales down for a second. Morales hits a quick switch to move around and grab hold of Griffin’s back, before they split up. Morales jabs when he gets back to a safe berth, and Griffin responds with an overhand right. Griffin dings Morales with a left and presses him into the clinch, and there is no takedown to be found. Morales stands him up with a few punches after they break, and he jumps with a knee that crashes right into Griffin’s head. Griffin gets kicked low a few times to shake up his balance, and he tries to time a jab with a right hook. Morales leans back to dodge a sweeping left hook, and he takes a deep breath with a minute left. Morales ushers Griffin aside when Griffin charges recklessly, and he tries another jump knee that misses the mark. Griffin walks his foe down, and he chambers a big right hand and connects with it. The impact leads to a clinch, and he gets thrown to the mat by the unbeaten fighter for emphasis. Morales tries to get off some ground-and-pound, but the fight comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)

The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Max Griffin via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales, highlighting his credentials as a freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai national champion. He notes Morales's footwork, forward pressure, and clean takedowns. He believes Morales's offensive wrestling will be the difference, though Max Griffin is a live underdog. He mentions the moneyline is already juiced and will wait for props.

waiting for props
"I do think Morales is going to get this done I think the offensive wrestling is going to be the difference here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales to win by decision. He is high on Morales but cautions against the -240 line, noting Max Griffin is a tough veteran who has only been finished once. He thinks the fight will be close and could go to decision, where the UFC's preference for the undefeated prospect may favor Morales. He also notes Morales has multiple paths to win, including a finish or a close decision.

"give me Michael Morales to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody likes Morales' youth, power, and wrestling background. He notes Morales' wins over Trevin Giles and Adam Fugit show finishing ability. He acknowledges Griffin is a seasoned veteran but points out Griffin's low volume and lack of recent finishes. Cody thinks Morales' power and pressure will be too much, but he will watch the live market in case Griffin teaches him a lesson.

"I lean Morales but minus 250 like it's kind of the price tag that indicates he's going to knock him out and finish them pretty easily"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel leans Morales due to his athleticism, youth, and potential improvements after a year off, but calls it a 'dog or pass' at -240. He acknowledges Griffin's experience, durability, and knockdown power, and notes Morales' defensive flaws (gets hit clean). He compares the situation to Jamahal Hill's loss to Paul Craig, suggesting a setback wouldn't ruin Morales' future. He is not confident enough to bet, as Griffin's plus-205 price is tempting.

dog or pass situation; Morales minus 240, Griffin plus 205
"I'm gonna lean towards the favorite but it's like clearly dog or pass I think"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

James briefly mentions this fight in response to a chat question, stating he sees Michael Morales knocking Max Griffin out. He does not elaborate further, but the statement is clear and confident.

"I just see Michael Morales knocking Max Griffin out."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul thinks the market is about right. He notes Griffin was taken down three times by Tim Means and that Morales can mix in wrestling. He sees Morales as a high-potential prospect and is not willing to bet against him against an aging Griffin. Paul believes Morales will win, possibly by using his wrestling.

"Morales will be the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The Guru picks Michael Morales, despite some sloppy moments in his last fight against Adam Fugitt. He notes Morales's youth (24), reach advantage, and consistency, while Max Griffin is hit-or-miss and older. He believes Morales's talent is above Griffin's level and predicts a win, possibly a finish.

"I am gonna have to go with Michael Morales here on talent I think he's way above Max Griffin"
TKO (punches) R3 1:09
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 2 83 of 151 54% 89 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Adam Fugitt 0 64 of 113 56% 70 of 120 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 26 of 50 52% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Adam Fugitt 0 25 of 42 59% 30 of 48 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:31
2 Michael Morales 0 32 of 70 45% 34 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Adam Fugitt 0 32 of 58 55% 33 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
3 Michael Morales 2 25 of 31 80% 26 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Adam Fugitt 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 83 of 151 54% 74 of 140 7 of 9 2 of 2 64 of 127 12 of 17 7 of 7
Adam Fugitt 64 of 113 56% 32 of 74 20 of 26 12 of 13 58 of 99 6 of 10 0 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 26 of 50 52% 20 of 43 5 of 6 1 of 1 22 of 46 3 of 3 1 of 1
Adam Fugitt 25 of 42 59% 10 of 25 8 of 9 7 of 8 24 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 4
2 Michael Morales 32 of 70 45% 29 of 66 2 of 3 1 of 1 28 of 63 4 of 7 0 of 0
Adam Fugitt 32 of 58 55% 15 of 36 12 of 17 5 of 5 28 of 50 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Michael Morales 25 of 31 80% 25 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 18 5 of 7 6 of 6
Adam Fugitt 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales to win by first-round knockout. He is very high on Morales, citing his physical strength, offensive wrestling, takedown defense, and power. He notes Fugitt is on short notice and outmatched. He acknowledges Morales is hittable but believes he runs through Fugitt.

"give me morales to win give me morales to win by first round knockout i think it gets it done here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody picks Morales, describing him as a promising young fighter with a judo brown belt, BJJ brown belt, and national wrestling team experience. He notes that Fugitt is a short-notice replacement who shouldn't be in the UFC. He thinks Morales will take him out inside the distance, likely by TKO/KO, because Fugitt is not durable. He also mentions that Morales is strong, physical, and improving quickly.

Morales inside the distance by TKO/KO
"i think morales has got him snuffed out i like the kid i like the kid... i would think morales inside the distance specifically by tko or ko"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel is high on Morales, calling him a very talented prospect with wrestling, knockout power, and size. He notes the massive speed and athleticism advantage over Fugitt. He warns about Morales' maturity after receiving a $50k bonus, but thinks as long as he stays focused, he will win. He predicts a knockout, saying Fugitt is too slow. He calls the -600 line justified but does not bet due to the price.

Predicts Morales by knockout
"I'm gonna go Michael Morales by knockout here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Adam Fugitt

Preet took a shot on the over 1.5 rounds at -103, banking on Fugitt's durability and ability to make it a clinchy, grinding fight. He acknowledges Morales should win but sees value on Fugitt's side, noting his wrestling background and pressure. He may also place a half-unit on Fugitt's moneyline if it reaches +500.

over 1.5 rounds -103
"i took a shot on the over one and a half at minus 103"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul also picks Morales, agreeing that Fugitt is a short-notice replacement who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes that Morales is young, strong, and has a promising future. He thinks Morales will win, possibly inside the distance, but the price is steep. He also mentions that the over/under is 1.5 rounds with juice to the under.

"yeah we were both picking morales it's just you know you have to pay the price to pay uh to play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales by submission (d'arce choke) in round two. He expects Fugitt to have some early success with takedowns and clinch work, but Morales will find his timing in round two, land big shots, stuff a takedown, and cinch the choke. The Guru notes Morales' ability to compose himself after early adversity.

submission in round 2
"second round submission i think he gets a dash choke over adam future here"
TKO (punches) R1 4:06
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 1 26 of 42 61% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:05
Trevin Giles 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 1 26 of 42 61% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:05
Trevin Giles 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 26 of 42 61% 23 of 39 0 of 0 3 of 3 12 of 24 0 of 0 14 of 18
Trevin Giles 8 of 15 53% 3 of 10 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 26 of 42 61% 23 of 39 0 of 0 3 of 3 12 of 24 0 of 0 14 of 18
Trevin Giles 8 of 15 53% 3 of 10 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales, calling him a killer with national championships in wrestling and Muay Thai. He notes Morales' footwork and jab, and believes he is better everywhere except pace. He sees Trevin Giles as a good measuring stick but expects Morales to win.

"i think morales is going to win this fight i think he's better everywhere except the actual pace and my only concern is that trevin may just march forward stay in morales face which could give him a hard time but morales is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales to win a close decision, citing his volume, reach advantage, and well-rounded game. He heavily criticizes Trevin Giles for poor fight IQ, cardio, and low volume, and notes Giles is cutting to 170 which is a concern. He acknowledges Giles has a grappling advantage but doesn't trust him to fight smart. He expects Morales to outpoint Giles in a close fight.

Morales by decision; mentions Giles cutting weight and poor fight IQ
"i'm gonna take michael morales to win a decision here but i think it's gonna be very very close"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

Cody picks Trevin Giles as an underdog, citing Giles' experience against higher-level competition and his well-rounded skills. He notes that Giles has fought at 205 and 185, and moving to 170 may benefit him. Cody acknowledges Giles' cardio issues and past submissions, but believes his boxing and grappling are superior to Morales'. He sees this as a dog-or-pass situation.

"I would say this is a dog or pass situation... I'm going to go with the underdog Trevin Giles here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel Levi picks Michael Morales but admits he is hesitant and will not bet the fight. He acknowledges the classic spot where an unproven prospect faces a grizzled vet at dog money, which often goes the vet's way. However, his gut tells him Morales is the more talented fighter and will get it done. Levi notes that Giles has a history of making mistakes and getting choked out, but also that Morales could suffer from debut nerves. He compares it to the Ignacio vs Makdessi fight where the better fighter didn't win.

No bet; straight pick only
"my gut was telling me morales is going to get this one done but my gout also told me that ignacio would beat macdessey"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Trevin Giles

The host is skeptical of Morales being a favorite given his unproven competition. He notes that Giles is a tested veteran with fast hands and good movement, and that Morales has not faced anyone like Giles. He thinks Giles can use his jab and movement to discourage Morales and win a decision. However, he admits he is not a big Giles fan and may not bet it, but his prediction is Giles by decision.

Giles by decision
"i'm actually leaning giles on the spot i'm not a big jobs guy myself so i don't think i'll actually be placing a bet on it but in terms of a prediction it's hard to pick against a guy that's a tested and true ufc veteran"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul picks Michael Morales, noting his youth (22) and wrestling from the contender series. He acknowledges that Morales' striking is a work in progress but believes his ceiling is higher. Paul is not a fan of Trevin Giles, citing his underwhelming UFC run and cardio issues. However, he is not highly confident and suggests this fight could be passed.

"I'm going with the kid 22 years old... I've never been a Trevin Giles guy and I won't be today."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales, praising his stand-up, grappling, and all-around skills. He notes Giles' recent KO loss and poor performance against James Krause on short notice. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision, with Morales schooling Giles on the feet for three rounds.

"i'm going to go with michael morales 3027 unanimous decision winning every single round on the feet"